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Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1976 Discussion

1976 is another big year for the Big Red Machine as they sweep the postseason. In the American League the Bird is the word as Mark Fidrych has everyone a-twitter.

Voting will end on October 4th 2012.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Morgan, Joe		36.7		9.5
Schmidt, Mike		35.7		7.9
Rose, Pete		29.8		7.2
Grich, Bobby		30.3		5.7
Nettles, Graig		27.8		7.6
Concepcion, Dave	23.3		4.2
Brett, George		33.0		7.2
Foster, George		25.2		5.8
Cey, Ron		28.0		5.9
Harrah, Toby		23.6		3.2
Belanger, Mark		23.0		6.2
Munson, Thurman		24.6		5.0
Griffey, Ken		24.9		4.4
Maddox, Gary		27.0		6.2
Rivers, Mickey		26.2		6.2
Carew, Rod		29.4		6.5
Cedeno, Cesar		29.8		5.7
LeFlore, Ron		25.8		5.1
Garvey, Steve		26.8		4.6
Burleson, Rick		20.3		3.2
Winfield, Dave		23.7		5.0
Campaneris, Bert	19.2		4.1
Simmons, Ted		22.7		3.3
Bench, Johnny		19.4		4.5
White, Roy		26.0		5.4
Jackson, Reggie		25.5		5.0


Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Fidrych, Mark		26.9		9.3
Palmer, Jim		27.3		6.2
Blue, Vida		24.5		7.3
Tanana, Frank		26.5		7.2
Montefusco, John	20.8		6.2
Blyleven, Bert		20.9		6.2
Seaver, Tom		20.4		4.9
Tiant, Luis		21.8		6.0
Torrez, Mike		19.8		5.0
Niekro, Phil		20.1		6.6
Koosman, Jerry		19.7		4.7
Barr, Jim		18.7		5.5
Eastwick, Rawley	16.0		2.4
Hough, Charlie		18.9		2.3
Hiller, John		16.8		3.9
Fingers, Rollie		16.6		3.7
Jones, Randy		21.9		3.6
DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 10:08 AM | 63 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4226931)
Hot topics
   2. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 10:28 AM (#4226938)
1976 prelim

Nobody comes close to Joe Morgan this year, again

1) Joe Morgan
2) Mike Schmidt
3) Mark Fidrych
4) Vida Blue
5) Frank Tanana (big gap in pitchers after Tanana)
6) Bobby Grich
7) Graig Nettles
8) Dave Concepcion
9) George Brett
10) George Foster
11) Pete Rose
12) Ron Cey

13-15) John Montefusco, Jim Palmer, Toby Harrah
16-21) Mark Belanger, Thurman Munson, Ken Griffey, Bert Blyleven, Gary Maddox, Tom Seaver

LOTS of postseason credit to work out. 10 of my top 21 were in the playoffs.
   3. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4227178)
Note that we'll end voting on a Thursday this time.
   4. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4227284)
So this year the writers went Munson, Brett in the AL. In the NL it was Morgan, Foster, Schmidt. AL CYA was Palmer, Fidrych, Tanana. NL CYA was Jones, Koosman, Sutton. Starting 16-3 and winning the All-Star game clearly helped Jones. Nice two-year run. He's got to be up on the list of "worst players with a retired number" with Willie Horton and Kent Hrbek.
   5. TDF, situational idiot Posted: September 05, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4227414)
The Reds must have been pretty good in '76.
   6. Chris Fluit Posted: September 05, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4227580)
He's got to be up on the list of "worst players with a retired number" with Willie Horton and Kent Hrbek.


George Bell should be on that list as well. At least he's got an (undeserved?) MVP to his name.
   7. Chris Fluit Posted: September 05, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4227585)
Question: do we switch to a 13-name ballot next year?

The way I understand it, we've been working with a formula of roughly 1 ballot spot for every two teams. We had 10 spots in 1961 for the expansion classes of '61 and '62 which brought MLB up to 20 teams. We moved to 12 spots in 1969 for the four-team expansion of '69. So, by my calculation, we should be at 13 next year with the addition of the Blue Jays and Mariners. We would then move to 14 in '93 and finally to 15 in '98.


   8. DL from MN Posted: September 05, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4227650)
Yes, 13 on the ballot next year.

We'll see about Bell's MVP some time next year.
   9. Chris Fluit Posted: September 05, 2012 at 09:54 PM (#4227771)
Oh, I know that Bell wasn't the best choice for MVP in '87. I'm friends with a few Tigers fans who are still upset that Bell beat out Trammell for the award. As a supporter of Trammell for the HoF, I can't help but suspect that having an MVP to his name would have given him the same kind of bump that helped Larkin and Sandberg get elected. The big question for me is whether Trammell will get it from us or if we'll go with someone from a non-playoff team like Boggs. As you say, we'll find out some time next year.
   10. lieiam Posted: September 06, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4227867)
Here's my prelim.
No post season credit.
10% catcher bonus.
systems used:
fangraphs WAR, baseball-reference WAR, baseball gauge WAR, dan rosencheck WARP1, baseball gauge Win Shares, baseball gauge WSAB.


1 morgan, joe 9885
2 schmidt, mike 8978
3 brett, george 7777
4 fidrych, mark 7736
5 nettles, graig 7238
6 blue, vida 7199
7 tanana, frank 7062
8 grich, bobby 6847
9 carew, rod 6781
10 rose, pete 6699
11 maddox, garry 6656
12 cey, ron 6600
13 foster, george 6366
14 palmer, jim 6167
15 cedeno, cesar 6166
16 rivers, mickey 6024
17 montefusco, john 5971
18 tiant, luis 5921
19 blyleven, bert 5881
20 seaver, tom 5709
21 belanger, mark 5692
22 jackson, reggie 5621
23 niekro, phil 5351
24 mcrae, hal 5337

Agreed it looks like Joe Morgan again.
Although this time he wasn't tops in each system I use.
Baseball Gauge WAR has Schmidt a bit above Morgan.
   11. DL from MN Posted: September 06, 2012 at 07:28 AM (#4227968)
I'd like to reiterate that being a voter isn't rocket science. Just make a list of 12 guys, post a prelim and post a ballot. Have some rationale for how you rank players. What lieiam does is great. I was pretty disappointed that we shrank to 10 voters last election. This is modern baseball, some people who post here watched these seasons in real time.
   12. Chris Fluit Posted: September 06, 2012 at 09:59 AM (#4228045)
I noticed the bb-ref's franchise encyclopedia doesn't list Bell's number as retired. It must be one of those weird honored but not officially taken out of circulation things because his number is proudly displayed at Rogers Centre (along with Tony Fernandez's #1, Roberto Alomar's #12 and Dave Stieb's #37).

Continuing the off-topic discussion for a moment, two other players I would nominate for that list are the Royals' Frank White and the Astros' Mike Scott. I loved Mike Scott at the time but he only had that one great year and his career WAR of 21 is pretty low. Frank White is one of those guys who meant a lot to his particular franchise but who otherwise doesn't stand out (though his 31 WAR isn't too shabby).

   13. DL from MN Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:16 AM (#4228164)
Maybe BB-ref just didn't believe they'd retire George Bell's number.

When I think Mike Scott I associate it with "scuffed baseballs". Good thing the Twins have never considered retiring Joe Niekro's number.
   14. Chris Fluit Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4228178)
1976 Prelim Ballot

1. Joe Morgan, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: Head and shoulders above everyone again, 1st in OPS+, 1st in RC while playing a premium defensive position
2. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: 150 OPS+, 121 runs created, +10 fielding
3. Vida Blue, P, Oakland Athletics: 2nd in ERA+, 3rd in Innings Pitched, #1 Pitcher for this year
4. Jim Palmer, P, Baltimore Orioles: 1st in Innings by a wide margin, 5th in ERA+
5. Pete Rose, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: Rose hasn't made my ballot often but his 123 Runs Created and a decent glove at 3B give him a boost
6. Mark Fidrych, P, Detroit Tigers: The Bird is the Word!
7. George Brett, 3B, Kansas City Royals: the top position player in the AL with a 144 OPS+ and 114 Runs Created
8. Frank Tanana, P, California Angels: a great combination of innings and rate stats
9. Randy Jones, P, San Diego Padres: 1st in Innings, top ten in ERA+ in the National League
10. Bert Blyleven, P, Minnesota/Texas: ignore the trade and the sub .500 record, the red dutchman had a 125 ERA+ in 297 Innings
11. Graig Nettles, 3B, New York Yankees: good year for third basemen as Nettles is the third to crack my ballot
12. George Foster, LF, Cincinnati Reds: good year for Cincinnati Reds as Foster is the third to crack my ballot

13. Rod Carew, 1B, Minnesota Twins: just misses out on the last ballot spot, partly due to a lack of defensive bonus after moving to first
14. Luis Tiant, P, Boston Red Sox: another good combination of innings (8th) and ERA+ (5th)
15. Mike Torrez, P, Oakland Athletics
16. Ron Cey, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
17. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets
18. J. R. Richard, P, Houston Astros: 291 Innings with a 116 ERA+
19. Thurman Munson, C, New York Yankees
20. Bill Madlock, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
   15. Chris Fluit Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:27 AM (#4228186)
A couple of thoughts: I didn't see the same steep drop-off between the top three pitchers (Blue/Fidrych/Tanana) as DL and lieam. Actually I had Palmer as the #2 pitcher for this year. And I had Jones and Blyleven hot on the heels of Tanana.

It looks like the big battle this year will be for third place as Morgan and Schmidt looked to be locked in at 1 and 2.
   16. DL from MN Posted: September 06, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4228198)
Bert Blyleven, P, Minnesota/Texas: ignore the trade


A different kind of bird there
   17. fra paolo Posted: September 06, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4228240)
This is modern baseball, some people who post here watched these seasons in real time.

I'm pretty sure 1976 was my first 'modern' APBA season. (I had played in a 1930 league the year before.) But subsequently I got the 1975 set and set up a 6-team solo league for that. Then I switched to Strat.
   18. Good cripple hitter Posted: September 06, 2012 at 12:27 PM (#4228278)
I noticed the bb-ref's franchise encyclopedia doesn't list Bell's number as retired. It must be one of those weird honored but not officially taken out of circulation things because his number is proudly displayed at Rogers Centre (along with Tony Fernandez's #1, Roberto Alomar's #12 and Dave Stieb's #37).


The Jays don't retire numbers, they just display the players and their number on the level of excellence that you mentioned.

I'd say Joe Carter is a slightly worse choice to honor, at least in terms of value to the team. BBRef has him at 6.4 WAR over 7 seasons as a Jay, which is much worse than Bucky Dent's contributions to the Yankees. I doubt any other player who's had their number retired orhonoured for their contributions to the team as a player has a lower WAR.
   19. Chris Fluit Posted: September 06, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4228349)
You're right. I forgot that Carter's number was up there as well. He's a worse pick than Bell. I hope the Blue Jays give Delgado his due. He was a much better player than either Carter or Bell even though his team didn't have the postseason appearances that boosted the other player's profiles. For that matter, I'd rather see Olerud's #9 up there too.
   20. bjhanke Posted: September 06, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4228620)
I've returned to being reasonably safe in my memories of the upcoming seasons. I lost through to about 1975 due to being basically crazy over Vietnam War draft resistance. But by 1976 that had gone away. I hope my comments make more sense this time.

Also, to repeat a slightly-off-topic plea: I can't figure out how to bookmark threads here. I have bookmarked two of them in the past, so I did figure it out once, but I've been unable to duplicate the feat. So, if you know, please post up here and tell me how bookmarking on this site works. (As opposed to bookmarking on my browser's header board, which I know how to do.) Thanks, - Brock Hanke
   21. fra paolo Posted: September 06, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4228732)
Brock, doesn't the 'Bookmark' tag on the thread, next to the name of the poster and date posted, work for you?
   22. bjhanke Posted: September 07, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4229479)
Fra - THANKS! I KNEW I had found it before, but couldn't remember where it was. I looked almost everywhere BUT there, and sure enough that's where it is. Fair warning: If you spend 20 years programming computers and another 20 writing systems documentation, you're going to find other people's layouts hard to deal with, because you're so trained to solve things "your" way. This is what happened to me. I saw "login to bookmark" in passing many times, but didn't look just to the left, where "bookmark" is. I would not have designed the page that way. Doesn't make the page design bad, just not like my idea of layout style. Annoying as hell. I KNOW how to lay out web pages, but I know how to do that my way. And my way gets in the way of other ways, which are just as good as my way. Makes me feel stupid. And it happens on all kinds of web sites, not just this one. - Brock
   23. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4229671)
Survey of postseason credit 1976 NLCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Bench 3 12 3 4 1 0 1 1 1 2 .333 .385 .667 1.051 1 0
Concepcion 3 10 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 .200 .333 .300 .633 0 0
Foster 3 12 2 2 0 0 2 4 0 4 .167 .154 .667 .821 0 0
Griffey 3 13 2 5 0 1 0 2 2 1 .385 .467 .538 1.005 2 0
Morgan 3 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 .000 .462 .000 .462 2 0
Rose 3 14 3 6 2 1 0 2 1 0 .429 .467 .714 1.181 0 0

Luzinski 3 11 2 3 2 0 1 3 1 4 .273 .333 .727 1.061 0 0
Maddox 3 13 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 .231 .286 .308 .593 0 1
Schmidt 3 13 1 4 2 0 0 2 0 2 .308 .286 .462 .747 0 0

Rawly Eastwick had a 12.00 ERA in 3 innings.

Very good series for Bench, Griffey and Rose. They didn't pitch to Morgan but a .462 OBP with two steals isn't bad. Foster was all-or-nothing with two HR and a sacrifice. Schmidt and Concepcion were okay.
   24. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4229677)
1976 ALCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Munson 5 23 3 10 2 0 0 3 0 1 .435 .435 .522 .957 0 1
Nettles 5 17 2 4 1 0 2 4 3 3 .235 .350 .647 .997 0 0
Rivers 5 23 5 8 0 1 0 0 1 1 .348 .375 .435 .810 0 1
White 5 17 4 5 3 0 0 3 5 1 .294 .455 .471 .925 1 0

Brett 5 18 4 8 1 1 1 5 2 1 .444 .476 .778 1.254 0 1

Wow, Nettles and Munson were good but Brett was a monster.
   25. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4229682)
1976 World Series

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Bench 4 15 4 8 1 1 2 6 0 1 .533 .533 1.133 1.667 0 0
Concepcion 4 14 1 5 1 1 0 3 1 3 .357 .400 .571 .971 1 1
Foster 4 14 3 6 1 0 0 4 2 3 .429 .500 .500 1.000 0 2
Griffey 4 17 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .059 .056 .059 .114 1 0
Morgan 4 15 3 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 .333 .412 .733 1.145 2 0
Rose 4 16 1 3 1 0 0 1 2 2 .188 .263 .250 .513 0 0

Munson 4 17 2 9 0 0 0 2 0 1 .529 .529 .529 1.059 0 0
Nettles 4 12 0 3 0 0 0 2 3 1 .250 .375 .250 .625 0 0
Rivers 4 18 1 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 .167 .211 .167 .377 1 1
White 4 15 0 2 0 0 0 0 3 0 .133 .278 .133 .411 0 0

Morgan and Bench were awesome. Munson was good again. Griffey was a dud.
   26. DL from MN Posted: September 07, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4229687)
Anyone have a reference to a runs created formula for 1976?
   27. bjhanke Posted: September 08, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4230166)
DL - I'm not sure of the question. In 1976, Bill James was just starting to self-publish. I think his basic formula, with its A, B, and C sections was what he had. That algebras out to OBP x SLG x AB. Pete Palmer had linear weights already going, although it already had more than more than one formula. Or do you mean does someone have a specialty runs created system for some rules change that happened in 1976 (I can't think of any off-hand). - Brock
   28. DL from MN Posted: September 08, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4230281)
Just generic runs created but adjusted for 1976 scoring levels
   29. bjhanke Posted: September 09, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4231196)
DL - There are certainly more modern systems that adjust for a lot of different things, but Bill's basic runs created, which I gave above, was probably the best there was at the time. You can make it somewhat more accurate by subtracting CS and DP, while adding HBP, from/to "times on base" in OBP, and adding SB and HBP to "total bases" for SLG. But you're still using OBP x SLG x AB. If you want something a little more complicated, but that is still basic runs created, I'd use the "first runs created estimate", which you can find in Win Shares on pages 90-91, steps A through D. After D, Bill gets into situational stuff, and away from basic RC. - Brock
   30. Mr. C Posted: September 10, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4231984)
1976 Preliminary Vote

WAR framework with reduced replacement level (WARR)

1. Mark Fidrych 8.2 WARR The Bird is indeed the Word in 1976
2. Joe Morgan 7.8 WARR Another superior season for Joe
3. Mike Schmidt 7.45 WARR
4. Graig Nettles 6.75 WARR
5. George Brett 6.45 WARR
6. Rod Carew 6.2 WARR
7. Ron Cey 6.15 WARR
8. Vida Blue 6.1 WARR
9. Frank Tanana 6 WARR
10. Luis Tiant 5.95 WARR
11. George Foster 5.55 WARR
12. Roy White 5.55 WARR

The rest of the top 20
Garry Maddox
Pete Rose
Phil Niekro
Bert Blyleven
Mark Belanger
John Montefusco
Ron LeFlore
Bobby Grich


   31. OCF Posted: September 10, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4232039)
Some pitching numbers. Tell me if there are other pitchers you'd like to see. This is RA+ equivalent record.

Fidrych: 19-9
Blue: 21-12
Tanana: 20-12
Palmer: 21-14
Blyleven: 20-13
Tiant: 19-12
Lyle: 7-4 (11-8 with inherited runner adjustment)
Fingers: 10-5 (14-9 with inherited runner adjustment)

Seaver: 19-11 (bad hitter)
Montefusco: 17-11 (bad hitter)
Niekro: 17-14
Barr: 15-13
Messersmith: 13-10
Eastwick: 8-4 (10-7 with inherited runner adjustment; oh-fer hitter)

Some comments:

Scoring dropped in both leagues, especially the AL. AL/NL scoring per team per game went from 4.32/4.13 to 4.00/3.99. So even with the DH, the AL wasn't outscoring the AL.

The vast pitching loads that characterized the early 70's were now largely a thing of the past, although Palmer did still do 315 innings. It remained true that top AL pitchers put in more innings than top AL pitchers.

Eastwick was pretty clearly not the best relief pitcher in the NL, especially considering his inherited runners. I'm not sure who was the best.

No NL pitcher was all that impressive. It just wasn't a year for pitchers to shine.

And finally, about Fidrych: While it is true that he had the best RA+ of any of the important pitchers, he did that in substantially fewer innings than the other top AL pitchers like Blue, Tanana, Palmer, or Blyleven. I might take him as the year's top pitcher, but barely so. I really don't see him that far from several other pitchers, and I'm inclined to disagree with Mr.C. - I really don't see Fidrych in the top spot.
   32. OCF Posted: September 10, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4232053)
Corrections:

"So even with the DH, the AL wasn't outscoring the NL."

"It remained true that top AL pitchers put in more innings than top NL pitchers."
   33. DanG Posted: September 10, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4232147)
Eastwick was pretty clearly not the best relief pitcher in the NL, especially considering his inherited runners. I'm not sure who was the best.
WAR thinks Lavelle was slightly better.

Rk           Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA OPS+
1       John Hiller 3.9  156 13  0.214 1.322 46  1 121.0  33 DET AL 56 12  8 2.38 .219   83
2    Rollie Fingers 3.7  136 20 
-0.011 1.173 62  0 134.2  29 OAK AL 70 13 11 2.47 .243   81
3      Dave LaRoche 3.3  155 21  4.192 1.100 43  0  96.1  28 CLE AL 61  1  4 2.24 .175   55
4      Mark Littell 3.0  170 16  2.379 1.231 37  1 104.0  23 KCR AL 60  8  4 2.08 .188   60
5          Jim Kern 3.0  146 15  3.191 1.198 31  2 117.2  27 CLE AL 50 10  7 2.37 .222   77
6       Stan Thomas 2.9  151  6  0.214 1.221 15  7 105.2  26 CLE AL 37  4  4 2.30 .229   81
7      Gary Lavelle 2.8  135 12 
-0.256 1.396 40  0 110.1  27 SFG NL 65 10  6 2.69 .246   90
8    Rawly Eastwick 2.7  168 26  1.085 1.115 59  0 107.2  25 CIN NL 71 11  5 2.09 .232   68
9      Bruce Sutter 2.5  142 10  3.507 1.068 28  0  83.1  23 CHC NL 52  6  3 2.70 .209   65
10         Ron Reed 2.5  144 14  0.998 0.938 31  4 128.0  33 PHI NL 59  8  7 2.46 .193   58
11       Ken Forsch 2.4  149 19  2.293 1.109 46  0  92.0  29 HOU NL 52  4  3 2.15 .228   80
12    Randy Moffitt 2.4  160 14  1.523 1.233 31  0 103.0  27 SFG NL 58  6  6 2.27 .238   80
13    Tom Burgmeier 2.4  144  1  0.802 1.075 22  0 115.1  32 MIN AL 57  8  1 2.50 .226   81
14    Steve Mingori 2.2  153 10  1.571 1.148 27  0  85.1  32 KCR AL 55  5  5 2.32 .237   84
15    Charlie Hough 2.1  153 18  3.121 1.255 55  0 142.2  28 LAD NL 77 12  8 2.21 .200   78
16     Clay Carroll 2.0  141  6  0.983 1.177 20  0  77.1  35 CHW AL 29  4  4 2.56 .242   75
17     Kent Tekulve 1.9  142  9  0.882 1.130 33  0 102.2  29 PIT NL 64  5  3 2.45 .241   77
18    Adrian Devine 1.8  119  9  0.620 1.342 24  1  73.0  24 ATL NL 48  5  6 3.21 .255   79
19    Bill Campbell 1.7  120 20  2.874 1.235 68  0 167.2  27 MIN AL 78 17  5 3.01 .234   84
20   Tippy Martinez 1.7  146 10  3.302 1.321 21  0  69.2  26 TOT AL 39  5  1 2.33 .210   79 
   34. Mr. C Posted: September 11, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4232197)
When I evaluate a pitcher, I start with the RA average of each pitcher. I then look at the context: park factor and fielding support being the two most important. This gives us the following result for the top 6 pitchers in the AL

Fidrych Ra=2.73 with relatively poor fielding support and a park factor of 1.07
Blue RA=2.72 with just slightly below average defensive support and a park factor of .94
Tanana RA=2.75 with slightly above average defensive support and a park factor of .95
Tiant RA=3.45 with slightly below average defensive support and a park factor of 1.1
Palmer RA=2.89 with above average defensive support and a park factor of .93
Blyleven RA=3.2 with average defensive support and a park factor of 1.02

Of these 6 pitchers Fidrych had the poorest defensive support and of the 4 pitchers in the same range of RA he had the highest park factor.

After adjustments, my calculations show the following w% and RAA for each pitcher after adjustments

Fidrych: .723 W% : 53.9 Runs above Average
Blue: .630 W%: 39.1 RAA
Tanana: .639 W%: 38.1 RAA
Tiant: .618 W%: 36.7 RAA
Blyleven: .605 W%: 31.3 RAA
Palmer: .588 W%: 29.2 RAA

I have respect for OCF's opinion, but I am convinced (from my analysis anyway) is that Fidrych is the best pitcher in the AL by a fair margin and is head and shoulders above any of the pitchers in the NL. Whether Fidrych deserves the number 1 pick is certainly debatable and who knows Morgan may become my #1 pick as well by the final vote.

   35. DL from MN Posted: September 11, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4232656)
Here's what I get for playoff wOBA and wRAA using 1976 scoring numbers.

Brett .543 2.1
Morgan .465 1.4
Munson .450 1.3
Nettles .395 0.8
Foster .389 0.7
Rose .379 0.6
Schmidt .349 0.3
Concepcion .336 0.2
Griffey .269 -0.4
Rivers .272 -0.4
White .254 -0.6
Maddox .243 -0.7

   36. DL from MN Posted: September 11, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4232675)
Does everyone get the joke in 16 or am I being too cute by half?
   37. Rob_Wood Posted: September 11, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4233002)
Here's my Win Value stat for starting pitchers in 1976.

AL
Mark Fidrych 6.0
Vida Blue 5.8
Frank Tanana 4.8
Jim Palmer 4.6
Bert Blyleven 4.1
Luis Tiant 3.5
Mike Torrez 2.5
Wayne Garland 2.2
Bill Travers 1.9
Dock Ellis 1.9

NL
Don Sutton 3.7
Doug Rau 3.6
Jerry Koosman 3.6
Tom Seaver 3.4
Ray Burris 3.2
John Montefusco 3.1
Randy Jones 2.9
Steve Carlton 2.5
John Denny 2.4
JR Richard 2.3
   38. Chris Fluit Posted: September 11, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4233011)
DL, this is from Bert's Wikipedia page:

Then, following an incident in which Blyleven blatantly gave the finger to a television camera obviously focused on him during one of the Rangers' rare nationally-broadcast games,[4] Blyleven was again traded on December 8, 1977 to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of the first four-team trade in Major League Baseball history.
   39. DL from MN Posted: September 11, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4233192)
I was referring to this one:

http://www.startribune.com/printarticle/?id=125692328

   40. sunnyday2 Posted: September 12, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4234350)
1976, ah, the bicentennial year. It was a great year, a great party year.

1. Joe Morgan--#1 in both WAR and WS and OPS+
2. Mike Schmidt
3. George Brett
4. Mark Fidrych--I saw him pitch at Tiger Stadium, very exciting
5. Pete Rose
6. Rod Carew
7. Bill Madlock
8. Graig Nettles
9. Mickey Rivers
10. Hal McRae
11. Gary Moddox
12. Thurman Munson--seemed like a good MVP choice at the time
13. Vida Blue
14. Ron Cey
15. Reggie Jackson
   41. OCF Posted: September 13, 2012 at 02:51 AM (#4234473)
In response to Dan's post #33, I have one addition to my own post #31:

John Hiller 9-4 (13-8 with inherited runner correction).

To compare Hiller with Fingers: Hiller had the better RA+, but not by much: 152 to 142. Fingers had more innings. Fingers was better against inherited runners: 31/89 compared to Hiller 26/67.

It's a close comparison. WAR, as Dan quotes it, leans towards Hiller, but the difference is within the margin of error. I might lean towards Fingers. But I don't see either of them being in the top 15 or so, so no relief pitchers on the ballot.
   42. alilisd Posted: September 13, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4234926)
OCF, could you run the numbers for Randy Jones, please?
   43. OCF Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:08 AM (#4235448)
Hmm - missed him because WAR doesn't much like him. OK, Jones and one other guy with a lot of innings in a pitchers park, J.R. Richard.

Jones: 22-13 (terrible hitter)
Richard: 18-15 (poor hitter)

In the case of Jones, that's right up there in RA+ equivalent value with Fidrych and Blue in the other league, in part because it is so many innings.

What can you say about the defensive support provided by the Padres for Jones or the Astros for Richard? (Although Richard might have been a little less sensitive to defense.)
   44. alilisd Posted: September 14, 2012 at 11:57 AM (#4235776)
Thanks OCF. I had a hunch Jones might not look so bad by some measures. It struck me as odd WAR didn't like him with all those innings, but maybe it's because of park? I will try to look at some defense and see if I can come up with anything. Unfortunately I'm too young to have any first hand recollection to that level of detail so will have to try to look at who played and see what I can contribute. Please don't expect much as I'm a total novice.
   45. DL from MN Posted: September 14, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4235891)
10. Hal McRae


I left him off the top list due to middling numbers in both WS and WAR (26, 4.3) but he was probably the best DH of 1976. I know the numbers have him tied with Munson but I don't see any way he's a better selection than Munson. If the numbers are even I'll always take the catcher over the DH.

For reference here's McRae's postseason: .125/.211/.313 .523 OPS

   46. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 15, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4236749)
I have my own set of player won-lost records calculated from Retrosheet play-by-play data. Here's top 25's for pWins (which tie to team wins) and eWins (which are context-neutral). These numbers include playoff games (just counting them the same as any other game).

For voting here, I look at both pWins and eWins over average (WOPA) and replacement level (WORL). I slightly prefer pWins to eWins and WOPA to WORL. I also give a bit of a bonus to guys who were the best player in the major leagues at their position.

With that said, here's my tentative ballot / list of guys I'm considering. Numbers following the names are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL:

1. Joe Morgan, 24.0 - 13.8, 5.4, 7.1 - I'm getting a little tired of voting for Joe Morgan (kidding). I think this is the 3rd time I can use this comment: "Best player in the majors no matter how I measure it."
2. Mike Schmidt, 23.5 - 16.2, 3.3, 5.1 - Solid, but distant, 2nd to Morgan.
3. George Brett, 23.2 - 17.5, 2.9, 4.8 - Would be my AL MVP.
4. Jim Palmer, 19.6 - 13.5, 3.2, 4.7 - Best pitcher in MLB by my stats.
5. Bobby Grich, 20.2 - 15.7, 2.8, 4.4 - Ranks higher in eWOPA/eWORL (7/5) than pWOPA/pWORL (9/7), although his numbers are virtually the same both ways. This might be a bit too high for him, but he'll definitely make my ballot.
6. George Foster, 23.1 - 16.7, 2.5, 4.3 - Top 5 in eWORL (4.1); like Grich, it's not that he loses numbers w/ context (his pWORL > eWORL), it's that a few other guys gain a lot more in context.
7. Ron Cey, 21.5 - 15.2, 2.9, 4.6 - an example of what I just said about Foster (and Grich); his eWORL is only 3.4.
8. Vida Blue, 17.9 - 12.6, 2.8, 4.1
9. Mark Fidrych, 16.0 - 10.6, 2.8, 4.0 - Fidrych and Blue are pretty close across-the-board, but I think Blue's clearly (albeit slightly) better.

My last three ballot spots will probably then be filled out with three of the following players.

Thurman Munson, 20.2 - 16.5, 2.3, 4.0 - best C in the majors; 20 pWins is very impressive for a catcher (although that includes postseason)
Toby Harrah, 20.2 - 19.7, 1.1, 2.9 - best SS in the majors. Looks much better context-neutral (1.8/3.6 eWOPA/eWORL). 1976 is the first season I have any real memory of following in real time; I became an intense fan in 1977. I didn't remember Harrah being quite this good - I remember him more as just a guy, although he had several more seasons around this good. I guess I just wasn't paying enough attention.
Tom Seaver, 16.4 - 14.5, 1.5, 2.9 - he actually shows up at the top of my list of starting pitchers based purely on (regular-season) context-neutral pitching. He slips due to terrible hitting (but how fair is that to knock him relative to AL pitchers?) and relatively poor context adjustments (2.2/3.5 eWOPA/eWORL convert to 1.5/2.9 pWOPA/pWORL).
Ken Griffey, Sr., 22.6 - 16.1, 2.6, 4.4 - strong postseason and favorable context adjustments push him just ahead of teammate Foster in pWOPA/pWORL (2.6/4.4 to 2.5/4.3); Foster's advantage in context-neutral stats (2.2/4.1 - 1.0/2.8) is much greater, so Foster's much higher on my ballot, but Griffey might sneak onto the bottom (although probably not).
Reggie Jackson, 21.8 - 16.5, 2.3, 4.1 - best RF in the majors (essentially tied with Dave Winfield), although I don't give much of a bonus to the stronger hitting positions and tend to lump LF/RF together, by which measure George Foster was the best corner outfielder in MLB.
Steve Carlton, 17.9 - 13.5, 2.9, 4.3 - he's 4th in pWOPA, but only 10th in pWORL and outside the top 25 in eWOPA and eWORL (1.5/2.8); he might make my ballot, but I kind of think of the 2.9 pWOPA as a little bit of a contextual fluke (the Phillies were 26-9 in Carlton's 35 starts, but a lot of that was because they scored 6.11 runs/game in those games).
Graig Nettles, 22.2 - 16.8, 2.7, 4.5 - I'm inclined to ding him a little because he's only the 4th-best 3B in MLB (Schmidt, Brett, Cey), but I can't decide how fair that really is.
Frank Tanana, 16.9 - 13.2, 1.9, 3.3 - the Seaver comment mostly applies to Tanana (he's essentially tied w/ Seaver for most context-neutral pitching wins over average), except that Tanana's hitting is a non-factor. It seems a little hard for me to defend putting only one of Seaver or Tanana on-ballot, but leave the other off, although I might legitimately rank them 12/13 - Tanana probably comes out ahead of Seaver.
   47. DL from MN Posted: September 23, 2012 at 04:03 PM (#4243703)
I'll start the election this week. Just a reminder for new voters to post a prelim ballot in this thread.
   48. Yardape Posted: September 25, 2012 at 12:58 AM (#4244836)
1. Joe Morgan - clearly the best this year, IMO
2. Thurman Munson
3. Mike Schmidt - Schmidt and Munson are really, really close, so I put the catcher first
4. Pete Rose - falls in between the top three and the larger clumping below him.
5. George Brett - Great ALCS
6. Vida Blue - my pitcher of the year
7. Davey Concepcion - The MMP project is making me think hard about DanR's view of '70s shortstops
8. Bert Blyleven
9. Bill Russell
10. Frank Tanana
11. Tom Seaver
12. Ted Simmons
13. Cesar Cedeno
14. Mickey Rivers

Campaneris, Palmer, Griffey and Foster are the leaders of the rest. I must be putting more weight on innings or FIP because I'm not that high on Fidrych. (I don't use a strict FIP system, but I do favour pitchers with better FIP numbers).
I'll return tomorrow or Wednesday to post in the ballot thread.
   49. DL from MN Posted: September 25, 2012 at 09:42 AM (#4244983)
I get being low on Palmer or Fidrych but I think they were both clearly better than Blyleven this year. WAR and Win Shares agree with me. What am I missing on Blyleven?
   50. DL from MN Posted: September 25, 2012 at 10:27 AM (#4245050)
Also, what is Bill Russell doing on the list? Is he scoring high on some fielding system I'm not aware of?
   51. lieiam Posted: September 26, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4245870)
I don't know what system Yardape uses, but one of the systems I use does have Blyleven higher than both Palmer and Fidrych, that being Fangraphs WAR.
So I would presume (not to put words into Yardape's mouth) that he is a proponent of FIP based systems/methods to evaluate pitchers.

As for 1976 in music, two albums stand out for me:
1- The Modern Lovers- The Modern Lovers (granted it was several years old, but this was its first release)
2- The Ramones- Ramones

Next year, for me, is when the music releases start getting REALLY good (not that I was listening to them at the time... I was a wee lad).
   52. Yardape Posted: September 26, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4245878)
Also, what is Bill Russell doing on the list? Is he scoring high on some fielding system I'm not aware of?


Um, er...well, I am high on Russell's fielding in general...but really what happened here was I transposed his and Nettle's lines. So I'll make that substitution before the ballot.

So I would presume (not to put words into Yardape's mouth) that he is a proponent of FIP based systems/methods to evaluate pitchers.


Yeah, I put some weight on FIP. I really want to get some blend of FIP and RA numbers. Given how far off consensus I seem to be, maybe I don't have it right yet. But that's the answer to Blyleven. In Fangraphs WAR, he's second to Blue on the season.
   53. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2012 at 10:01 AM (#4246019)
Does FIP consider Blyleven's league leading 12 hit batters or is that noise? This was also the height of Bert being a pain in the ass, though I'd use that mainly as a tiebreaker.
   54. DL from MN Posted: September 26, 2012 at 10:29 AM (#4246063)
Oh boy, 1976 albums. I have a bunch of these

Bob Dylan - Desire (his last really good one for a while)
David Bowie - Station to Station
Ramones - Ramones
Tom Waits - Small Change
Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers


Other popular albums (some of which refuse to die)
Frampton Comes Alive!
Kiss - Destroyer
Rush - 2112
Led Zeppelin - Presence
AC/DC - High Voltage
The Runaways
Fly Like an Eagle - Steve Miller
Boston
Hotel California - Eagles

Waylon, Willie and Merle were also quite busy this year. We also get the ever-popular "Both Sides of Ray Stevens" and the "Theme from Rocky". It is quite amazing the staying power of 1976 in music. Some radio stations are still playing the bulk of their playlist from this year.
   55. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 03, 2012 at 07:41 PM (#4253117)
Prelim (No postseason credit):

1) Joe Morgan
2) Mike Schmidt
3) George Brett
4) Bobby Grich
5) Pete Rose
6) Cesar Cedeno
7) Garry Maddox
8) Rod Carew
9) Bob Watson
10) Mark Fidrych
11) Graig Nettles
12) Ron Cey
   56. DL from MN Posted: October 05, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4255236)
Open question. We'll do 1977 next and it looks like a pretty interesting year with no clear-cut winner. Do we want to do 1978 after that or do 2012 before returning to 1978? The playoffs should be over by the end of the next election. I'd like to see a simple 2012 or 1978 vote in this thread.
   57. Chris Fluit Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4255499)
I vote for '78
   58. Rob_Wood Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4255569)
I also vote for 1978.
   59. sunnyday2 Posted: October 05, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4256175)
Best LPs

1. Rastaman Vibrations--Bob Marley and the Wailers
2. Desire--Bob Dylan1. Wakin’ and Dreamin’--Orleans
3. Wakin' and Dreamin'--Orleans
4. Year of the Cat--Al Stewart
5. The Chords of Fame--Phil Ochs
6. The Royal Scam--Steely Dan
7. Hotel California--The Eagles
8. Chicken Skin Music--Ry Cooder
9. Night Moves--Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band
10. A New World Record--Electric Light Orchestra

11. Songs In the Key of Life--Stevie Wonder
12. Takin’ It to the Streets--The Doobie Brothers
13. Songs We Can Dance To--Steve Goodman
14. The Art of Tea--Michael Franks
15. Bigger Than Both of Us--Darryl Hall and John Oates
16. Black Market--Weather Report
17. Hasten Down the Wind--Linda Ronstadt
18. Silk Degrees--Boz Scaggs
19. Too Old to Rock and Roll, Too Young to Die--Jethro Tull
20. Boulevard--Murray McLauchlan

Best Songs

1. Spring Fever--Orleans
2. Ship of Fools --Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band
3. Still the One--Orleans
4. Year of the Cat--Al Stewart
5. Don’t Fear the Reaper--Blue Oyster Cult
6. New Kid In Town--The Eagles
7. Hotel California--The Eagles
8. Roving Cowboy--Steve Goodman
9. Bohemian Rhapsody--Queen
10. Positive Vibrations--Bob Marley and the Wailers

11. Reach--Orleans
12. Wakin’ and Dreamin’--Orleans
13. Romance in Durango--Bob Dylan
14. Black Market--Weather Report
15. Banana Republics--Steve Goodman.
16. It Keeps You Runnin’--Doobie Brothers
17. Chloe--Ry Cooder
18. More Than A Feeling--Boston
19. Give One Heart--Linda Ronstadt
20. Telephone Line--ELO
   60. DL from MN Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4256788)
I hate the Eagles
   61. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: October 06, 2012 at 07:13 PM (#4257100)
1. Rastaman Vibrations--Bob Marley and the Wailers

If this is your #1, there are a number of other super albums from that same year which deserve consideration as well. Including but not limited to:

Legalize It - Peter Tosh
Blackheart Man - Bunny Wailer
King Tubby Meets Rockers Uptown - Augustus Pablo
Right Time - Mighty Diamonds
Satta Massagana - Abyssinians
Super Ape - Upsetters

Tremendous year for reggae.
   62. Yardape Posted: October 12, 2012 at 10:23 PM (#4267134)
I'll put in a half-hearted vote for 2012. We started in 1961 (right?) so we'll have to get out of order sometime. I don't remember the 77/78 seasons myself, so it's fun for me to go through and learn about them. But we'll never really get to that point with the 2012 season, so I think it would be fun to do it now. But I'll be happy either way, so whatever everyone else wants is fine.
   63. DL from MN Posted: October 24, 2012 at 06:00 PM (#4281954)
I think I'll go ahead with 2012 next since Chris Fluit said he's not opposed. Then we'll head back to 1978.

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