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Monday, October 08, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 1977 Discussion

1977 is an expansion year as the American League welcomes the Blue Jays and Mariners. The Yankees defeated the Royals in the ALCS. The Dodgers prevailed over the Phillies in the NLCS. The Yankees won the World Series in six games.

In other news Dave Kingman becomes the only player to play in all four divisions in one season.

MMP voting will end on November 8 2012.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Carew, Rodney		37.7		9.5
Morgan, Joe		30.0		5.6
Schmidt, Mike		32.8		8.7
Parker, Dave		32.6		7.2	
Foster, George		31.5		8.2
Fisk, Carlton		31.6		6.7
Smith, Reggie		29.3		5.9
Brett, George		29.1		7.4
Tenace, Gene		26.2		4.5
Carter, Gary		24.1		5.2
Singleton, Ken		35.8		5.4
Page, Mitchell		29.4		5.8
Lopes, Davey		24.2		4.5
Bostock, Lyman		26.9		5.6
Hendrick, George	28.0		5.6
Nettles, Graig		24.8		5.1
Luzinski, Greg		29.7		4.0
Simmons, Ted		28.4		5.0
Yastrzemski, Carl	23.6		4.9
Lemon, Chet		23.0		5.5
Harrah, Toby		24.5		5.3
Hargrove, Mike		24.7		5.1
Cowens, Al		26.7		5.0
Jackson, Reggie		27.3		4.2
Templeton, Garry	23.4		3.4
Rose, Pete		22.9		2.8
Rice, Jim		26.0		4.9
Bench, Johnny		22.9		4.8
Winfield, Dave		23.5		5.1
Concepcion, Dave	18.9		2.6
Hisle, Larry		23.7		4.9

Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Reuschel, Rick		25.3		9.4
Tanana, Frank		20.5		8.0
Seaver, Tom		24.1		8.2
Ryan, Nolan		22.1		7.5
Carlton, Steve		25.3		6.6
Palmer, Jim		29.1		7.0
Candelaria, John	24.7		7.7
Leonard, Dennis		23.5		5.2
Blyleven, Bert		20.7		5.5
Halicki, Ed		18.5		5.4
Richard, JR		19.8		5.3
Niekro, Phil		19.5		8.1
Sutter, Bruce		26.0		6.5
Gossage, Goose		25.2		6.0
Campbell, Bill		23.1		4.6
Lyle, Sparky		20.3		3.5

 

DL from MN Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:21 AM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: October 08, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4259056)
1977 prelim

1) Rod Carew
2) Rick Reuschel
3) Frank Tanana
4) Joe Morgan
5) Tom Seaver
6) Mike Schmidt
7) Dave Parker
8) George Foster
9) Carlton Fisk
10) Reggie Smith
11) John Candelaria
12) Nolan Ryan
13) George Brett

14-18) Gene Tenace, Steve Carlton, Gary Carter, Jim Palmer, Davey Lopes

I haven't run the relievers yet or done any postseason credit
   2. DL from MN Posted: October 08, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4259149)
We should be finished in time for HoM balloting in November.
   3. TomH Posted: October 08, 2012 at 03:59 PM (#4259336)
meta issue for 77; did expansion change one league quality more than another?
   4. DL from MN Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:19 PM (#4259360)
The expansion draft was AL-only so rosters were thinned. However, you still have trades, waiver transactions and the first free agent class to move talent around throughout the leagues. The Mariners actually finished ahead of the gutted Oakland A's.
   5. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 08, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4259382)
did expansion change one league quality more than another?


It didn't appear to, for some of the reasons DL mentions in #4.

One thing that expansion does appear to have accelerated (although not necessarily kicking it off) was the specialization of the bullpen that culminated 15 years later in the current usage model. It's not a complete exaggeration to say that Mike Marshall's 1974/1975 campaigns (and possibly Bill Campbell's 1976-1978 as well) served as a warning shot across the bow to managers that they needed to move away from the pure fireman model toward a more restrictive usage of the closer, and you start to see both a reduction in closer innings and concentration of those innings into games in which the team was leading almost immediately. Innings per relief appearance started shooting down, and number of relievers used per game started shooting up, at almost precisely this moment.

-- MWE
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4259426)
Early prelim - can be used as my ballot if need be. No postseason bonuses.

1) Rod Carew
2) Bruce Sutter
3) Ken Singleton
4) Mike Schmidt
5) Mitchell Page
6) George Foster
7) Rich Gossage
8) Tom Seaver
9) Ted Simmons
10) Carlton Fisk
11) Reggie Smith
12) Joe Morgan
13) John Candelaria

   7. OCF Posted: October 08, 2012 at 05:50 PM (#4259511)
It's not a complete exaggeration to say that Mike Marshall's 1974/1975 campaigns (and possibly Bill Campbell's 1976-1978 as well) served as a warning shot across the bow to managers that they needed to move away from the pure fireman model toward a more restrictive usage of the closer, and you start to see both a reduction in closer innings and concentration of those innings into games in which the team was leading almost immediately.

Sutter's usage was a big part of that story, wasn't it? I remember there being a lot of concern about Sutter himself being affected by overwork.
   8. DanG Posted: October 08, 2012 at 10:32 PM (#4259990)
Sutter and Gossage are among the top ten relief seasons of all time.

Rk             Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA OPS+
1        Bruce Sutter 6.5  328 31  5.149 0.857 48  0 107.1  24 CHC NL 62  7  3 1.34 .183   31
2        Rich Gossage 5.9  244 26  5.895 0.955 55  0 133.0  25 PIT NL 72 11  9 1.62 .170   38
3       Bill Campbell 4.6  153 31  4.938 1.229 60  0 140.0  28 BOS AL 69 13  9 2.96 .224   70
4       Lerrin LaGrow 4.1  168 25  4.560 1.176 49  0  98.2  28 CHW AL 66  7  3 2.46 .230   75
5        Gary Lavelle 3.9  191 20  1.654 1.208 49  0 118.1  28 SFG NL 73  7  7 2.05 .239   69
6       Dave Campbell 3.6  147 13  1.400 1.252 31  0  88.2  25 ATL NL 65  0  6 3.05 .239   70
7         Sparky Lyle 3.5  183 26  4.029 1.197 60  0 137.0  32 NYY AL 72 13  5 2.17 .257   76
8        Enrique Romo 3.1  146 16  0.870 1.155 39  3 114.1  29 SEA AL 58  8 10 2.83 .227   76
9    Willie Hernandez 3.1  145  4  1.541 1.109 23  1 110.0  22 CHC NL 67  8  7 3.03 .234   71
10     Pete Vuckovich 2.7  121  8 
-0.524 1.365 35  8 148.0  24 TOR AL 53  7  7 3.47 .257   91
11          Bob Lacey 2.5  132  7  1.344 1.175 29  0 121.2  23 OAK AL 64  6  8 3.03 .234   82
12        Gene Garber 2.4  172 19  0.643 1.016 44  0 103.1  29 PHI NL 64  8  6 2.35 .220   58
13        Tom Johnson 2.3  128 15  2.505 1.357 54  0 146.2  26 MIN AL 71 16  7 3.13 .271   98
14        Bob McClure 2.1  162  6 
-0.850 1.374 31  0  71.1  25 MIL AL 68  2  1 2.52 .248   76
15        Dick Tidrow 2.1  125  5  0.979 1.219 26  7 151.0  30 NYY AL 49 11  4 3.16 .250   91
16     Rollie Fingers 2.1  119 35  0.648 1.202 69  0 132.1  30 SDP NL 78  8  9 2.99 .248   92
17       Pedro Borbon 1.9  123 18  1.224 1.220 54  0 127.0  30 CIN NL 73 10  5 3.19 .268   86
18           Ron Reed 1.9  147 15  3.037 1.110 35  3 124.1  34 PHI NL 60  7  5 2.75 .224   66 
   9. sunnyday2 Posted: October 09, 2012 at 07:49 AM (#4260197)
1977 Prelim

A very peculiar set of mega-stats this year....

1. Rod Carew appears to be an easy choice
2. George Foster--OK, now it gets tricky. #5 WS, #3 WAR, #6 and 8 on the above ballots. How come so low?
3. Mike Schmidt
4. Carlton Fisk
5. Greg Luzinski--what exactly has the Baby Bull ever done to WAR that WAR hates him so bad?

6. Ken Singleton--while I have him #6 I have to ask how the hell he is #2 on WS?
7. Reggie Smith
8. Steve Carlton--283 IP vs. 252 for Reuschel, 241 for Tanana....
9. Dave Parker
10. Rick Reuschel

11. Jim Rice
12. Jim Palmer--319 IP
13. Al Cowens
14. Graig Nettles
15. John Candaleria

Also under consideration--Reggie Jackson, George Brett
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2012 at 09:45 AM (#4260275)
what exactly has the Baby Bull ever done to WAR that WAR hates him so bad?


Play terrible defense.

Regarding Foster - the pitchers sneak in ahead of him but among position players he's essentially tied with Dave Parker behind Carew, Morgan and Schmidt.
   11. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 09, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4260313)
Ken Singleton-- while I have him #6 I have to ask how the hell he is #2 on WS?


Win Shares ties to team wins, and the Orioles outplayed their Pythag by 9 games in 1977. Win Shares also has a narrower spread on its fielding component (because it's truncated at 0), so Singleton's negative fielding doesn't hurt him as much as in WAR (BB-Ref has his fielding at -12).
   12. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2012 at 10:43 AM (#4260342)
Orioles outplayed their Pythag by 9 games in 1977


I'd guess that's helping Palmer too. Maybe they should credit those extra wins to Weaver.
   13. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 09, 2012 at 10:51 AM (#4260363)
What accounts for the WS vs WAR discrepancy for Reuschel? Is it just that the Cubs weren't that good?
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 09, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4260378)
2. George Foster--OK, now it gets tricky. #5 WS, #3 WAR, #6 and 8 on the above ballots. How come so low?


Because both Win Shares and WAR have problems and shouldn't be adhered to slavishly? ;-)
   15. DL from MN Posted: October 09, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4260383)
The Cubs weren't that good?


As I understand it the 1977 Cubs were a horrible defensive team. Any system that adjusts Reuschel's value for defensive support is going to help him out.
   16. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 09, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4260391)
What accounts for the WS vs WAR discrepancy for Reuschel? Is it just that the Cubs weren't that good?


The 1977 Cubs actually out-performed their Pythag (by 5 games; they were outscored by 47 runs, but finished right at .500). I'm not really sure how to explain that difference, although the WAR number looks flukier to me than the WS. Reuschel definitely had one of the best seasons of any pitcher in 1977, but it's hard for me to see that he had clearly and unambiguously the best season of any pitcher.
   17. Rob_Wood Posted: October 09, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4260705)
Here are my starting pitchers' Win Values for 1977:

AL
1. Jim Palmer 5.5
2. Frank Tanana 4.1
3. Dennis Leonard 3.6
4. Nolan Ryan 3.5
5. Bert Blyleven 3.3
6. Ron Guidry 3.2
7. Dennis Eckersley 2.5
8. Gaylord Perry 2.4
9. Doyle Alexander 2.4
10. Dave Rozema 2.3

NL
1. John Candelaria 6.4
2. Rick Reuschel 5.7
3. Tom Seaver 5.1
4. Steve Carlton 4.4
5. Tommy John 3.3
6. JR Richard 3.3
7. Bob Forsch 2.9
8. Don Sutton 2.5
9. Burt Hooton 2.3
10. Steve Rogers 2.2
   18. OCF Posted: October 09, 2012 at 08:03 PM (#4261087)
what exactly has the Baby Bull ever done to WAR that WAR hates him so bad?

I thought that "Baby Bull" was specifically Orlando Cepeda. And Orlando Cepeda was the "Baby Bull" because Pedro "Perucho" Cepeda was the Bull.

Greg Luzinski was also the Bull, but I think you can leave out "Baby."
   19. OCF Posted: October 10, 2012 at 02:24 AM (#4261441)
My notes on pitchers. But first some comments:

Run scoring jumped quite sharply from 1976. The AL went from 4.00 to 4.56, the NL from 3.99 to 4.40. So while Foster's 50 HR year was still a relative rarity, the increased offensive levels at least gives it some context.

The top NL pitchers hit unusually well. I worked up 8 NL starters, and the second worst hitter of the 8 was Bob Forsch. Which goes to show that a year's hitting for a pitcher is still a small sample. (And Forsch didn't pitch well enough to be worth including below.) Some OPS+: Carlton 78, Richard 64, Candelaria 53, Seaver 46, Reuschel 34.

This was very near the top of the arc for having value delivered by relief pitchers in the fireman model. Just a wealth of great relief performances. As for inherited runners: the AL relief pitchers inherited many more runners then the NL pitchers. And that makes sense: the need for the NL fireman to enter the game was often created by pinch hitting for the previous pitcher, while the AL firemen were more likely to be called on in the middle of an inning.

Now as a reminder: the rankings below are based only on RA+ and innings pitched. They're not adjusted for offense (although I comment on the offense) and most importantly, they're not adjusted for defensive support. So you can assume that Palmer is overrated and Reuschel is underrated.

AL pitchers:

Palmer 23-12
Tanana 19-8
Ryan 21-13
Blyleven 17-9
Leonard 20-13
Guidry 15-8
Campbell 11-4; 16-6 with inherited runner adjustment (Campbell was the best of these against inherited runners)
LaGrow 8-3; 13-6 with inherited runner adjustment
Lyle 11-4; 15-9 with inherited runner adjustment (Lyle wasn't so good against inherited runners)

NL pitchers:

Reuschel 20-8, decent hitter
Candelaria 19-7, very good hitter
Seaver 20-9, good hitter
Carlton 21-11, excellent hitter
Richard 18-12, very good hitter
John 15-10
Niekro 20-17, weak hitter
Gossage 12-3, 15-5 with inherited runner adjustment. OK hitter
Sutter 10-2, 13-3 with inherited runner adjustment
Lavelle 9-4, 13-5 with inherited runner adjustment. Oh-fer hitter
   20. Ben V-L Posted: October 10, 2012 at 09:17 AM (#4261502)
Just a comment: great year for catchers! In the NL Carter, Simmons, Bench, and Tenace are all in the top 15 for BBR WAR. In the AL you've got Fisk, Munson, and Sundberg all above 4.5 WAR.
   21. DL from MN Posted: October 10, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4261732)
The 1977 Cubs actually out-performed their Pythag


Sutter and Gossage are among the top ten relief seasons of all time.


I think these two items are related.

Candelaria and Reuschel both had limited innings pitched compared to some of the other starters. They also had shutdown relievers ready to take over.
   22. DL from MN Posted: October 10, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4261742)
Steve Carlton--283 IP vs. 252 for Reuschel, 241 for Tanana


36 starts for Carlton, 37 for Reuschel, 31 for Tanana. Tanana's IP/start is pretty strong and he threw 7 shutouts.
   23. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 10, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4261745)
Greg Luzinski was also the Bull, but I think you can leave out "Baby."


These days, with how far his BBQ apron sticks out, he might be referred to as "Bull and his Baby".
   24. DL from MN Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4263719)
Survey of postseason credit 1977 NLCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Ron Cey 4 13 4 4 1 0 1 4 2 4 .308 .400 .615 1.015 1 0
Steve Garvey 4 13 2 4 0 0 0 0 2 1 .308 .400 .308 .708 1 0
Davey Lopes 4 17 2 4 0 0 0 3 2 0 .235 .316 .235 .551 0 1
Reggie Smith 4 16 2 3 0 1 0 1 2 5 .188 .278 .313 .590 1 0

Steve Carlton 2 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 .500 .600 .500 1.100 0 0
Greg Luzinski 4 14 2 4 1 0 1 2 3 3 .286 .444 .571 1.016 1 0
Garry Maddox 2 7 1 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 .429 .500 .429 .929 0 0
Mike Schmidt 4 16 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 3 .063 .167 .063 .229 0 0

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Steve Carlton 2 2 6.94 0 1 0 0 11.2 13 9 8 6 1.800
   25. DL from MN Posted: October 11, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4263732)
1977 ALCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Reggie Jackson 5 16 1 2 0 0 0 1 2 2 .125 .222 .125 .347 1 0
Graig Nettles 5 20 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 3 .150 .150 .150 .300 0 0

George Brett 5 20 2 6 0 2 0 2 1 0 .300 .333 .500 .833 0 1
Al Cowens 5 19 2 5 0 0 1 5 1 3 .263 .300 .421 .721 0 1

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Sparky Lyle 4 0 0.96 2 0 0 0 9.1 7 1 0 3 0.750

Dennis Leonard 2 1 3.00 1 1 0 1 9.0 5 3 2 4 0.778
   26. DL from MN Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4263741)
1977 World Series

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Reggie Jackson 6 20 10 9 1 0 5 8 3 4 .450 .542 1.250 1.792 0 0
Graig Nettles 6 21 1 4 1 0 0 2 2 3 .190 .261 .238 .499 0 0

Ron Cey 6 21 2 4 1 0 1 3 3 5 .190 .280 .381 .661 0 0
Steve Garvey 6 24 5 9 1 1 1 3 1 4 .375 .400 .625 1.025 0 1
Davey Lopes 6 24 3 4 0 1 1 2 4 3 .167 .286 .375 .661 2 1
Reggie Smith 6 22 7 6 1 0 3 5 4 3 .273 .385 .727 1.112 0 1


Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Sparky Lyle 2 0 1.93 1 0 0 0 4.2 2 1 0 2 0.429
   27. lieiam Posted: October 13, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4268075)
Here's my prelim... and probably my final ballot.
I expanded my pool of players in consideration to try and not leave anyone off of my off-ballot list who would otherwise be there.
Note the ballot has increased to 13 this year with the addition of the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.

1 carew, rod 9844
2 schmidt, mike 8753
3 foster, george 8404
4 fisk, carlton 8059
5 reuschel, rick 8008
6 parker, dave 7690
7 singleton, ken 7558
8 brett, george 7406
9 palmer, jim 7350
10 smith, reggie 7290
11 seaver, tom 7047
12 page, mitchell 6842
13 carlton, steve 6820
14 candelaria, john 6768
15 sutter, bruce 6758
16 simmons, ted 6706
17 tanana, frank 6666
18 leonard, dennis 6628
19 morgan, joe 6627
20 ryan, nolan 6597
21 gossage, goose 6259
22 bostock, lyman 6223
23 carter, gary 6103
24 niekro, phil 6098
25 tenace, gene 6067
26 hendrick, george 5893
   28. Mr. C Posted: October 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM (#4270855)
1977 Preliminary ballot

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement)

1. Rick Reuschel 8.6 WARR raw numbers achieved in an extreme hitter's park in front of less than average defense.
2. Mike Schmidt 8.25 WARR superior fielding, sets him above other position players.
3.Tom Seaver 7.6 WARR
4. George Foster 7.5 WARR best offensive numbers in NL, good fielder, but a position adjustment foe being a corner outfielder lowers rating.
5. Rod Carew 7.2 WARR best offensive season for position players, but gets adjusted down as a firstbaseman
6. Frank Tanana 7.2 WARR
7. John Candelaria 7.2 WARR
8. Phil Niekro 7.05 WARR rather pedestrian raw numbers look much better when the numbers are adjusted for park (extreme hitter's park) and the fact that he played in front of the poorest defense in the majors)
9. Dave Parker 6.85 WARR
10. Steve Carlton 6.75 WARR
11. Nolan Ryan 6.65 WARR
12. Jim Palmer 6.55 WARR
13. George Brett 6.45 WARR
The hitting adjustment for pitchers in the NL helped everyone's rating (Carlton the most) with the exception of Niekro.

The rest of the top 20
Bruce Sutter
Mitchell Page
Carlton Fisk
Goose Gossage
Reggie Smith
Ken Singleton
Bert Blyleven


   29. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4270903)
My numbers have Dave Parker with a 2 win fielding advantage over George Foster. Does this seem reasonable? I know Parker was considered a good RF but am unsure of Foster's reputation.
   30. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4270913)
I ran Sutter's numbers and he slots behind Palmer in my group of pitchers. Top 20 but not on ballot.
   31. Chris Fluit Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM (#4270920)
My numbers have Dave Parker with a 2 win fielding advantage over George Foster. Does this seem reasonable? I know Parker was considered a good RF but am unsure of Foster's reputation.


That might be a little high for this season. Foster had a very good year in the field and spent 20% of his games in center. I have Parker ahead of Foster defensively by about 1/2 a win for 1977.
   32. DL from MN Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4270966)
Foster had a very good year in the field and spent 20% of his games in center.


That's going to show up in their positional replacement value but it will probably ding Foster's defense wrt position. Not sure if that helps or hurts Foster but I think I'm going to flip them on the ballot.
   33. Chris Fluit Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4270992)
1977 Prelim

1. Rod Carew, 1B, Minnesota Twins: leads AL in OPS+ and RC by large margins, plus defender at 1B

2. George Foster, RF/CF, Cincinnati Reds: Foster had a career year defensively (+17) as well as with the bat (a league leading 167 OPS+)

3. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: the third base bonus isn't quite enough to catch Foster

4. Carlton Fisk, C, Boston Red Sox: a great defensive season (+12 fielding runs) and a catcher's bonus bump Fisk into the top four

5. Bruce Sutter, RP, Chicago Cubs: one of the greatest relief seasons of all-time- a 1.34 ERA in over 100 innnings

6. Dave Parker, RF, Pittsburgh Pirates: an excellent arm in right field and the great range of youth nets Parker +25 fielding runs

7. Reggie Smith, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 167 OPS+ leads the National League

8. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals: not as good defensively as Fisk but a 144 OPS+ and 100 runs created are pretty impressive for a catcher (it also helps that Simmons gets the full catcher bonus for playing all but one game behind the plate)

9. Steve Carlton, P, Philadelphia Phillies: the best starting pitcher in the NL

10. Goose Gossage, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates: my initial results had Sutter 3 and Gossage 7 which seemed too high; after adjusting their ERAs according to their fewer innings, they ended up at 5 and 10 which seemed more appropriate

11. Jim Palmer, SP, Baltimore Orioles: once again, I end up higher on Palmer than the crowd; his combination of innings (319) and ERA+ (132) make him the best pitcher in the AL this year

12. Nolan Ryan, SP, California Angels: another great combination of innings and rate

13. George Brett, 3B, Kansas City Royals: Brett gets the first lucky 13 ballot spot.

------

14. Gary Carter, C, Montreal Expos: a good year for catchers but Carter just misses the ballot due to a down year defensively

15. John Candelaria, P, Pittsburgh Pirates

16. Rick Reuschel, P, Chicago Cubs: they're essentially tied in my system but Candy breaks the tie with better peripherals (whip and k/bb rate)

17. Jim Rice, LF, Boston Red Sox: I don't share the general loathing for Rice and this is where a good-hitting corner outfielder with little defensive value ends up

18. Tom Seaver, P, New York Mets/Cincinnati Reds: I'm sure Mets fans won't regret this trade at all

19. Joe Morgan, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: It's a steep drop compared to his recent MVP seasons but a 138 OPS+ and 121 runs created at second base are still good enough for the top 20

20. Dennis Leonard, P, Kansas City Royals: I didn't expect this one but Leonard's 50 IP advantage over Tanana made the difference

   34. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 22, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4279731)
I have my own Player won-lost records which I calculate two ways: context-neutral (eWins) and tied to team records (pWins) (links are to top 25 lists for 1977 major leagues, including postseason games). I look at wins vs. average (what I call WOPA) and wins vs. replacement level (WORL).

1977 was the first season of major-league baseball that I followed really closely at the time. My all-time favorite player won a badly undeserved Rookie of the Year award, but I was 9 years old, so what did I care that Mitchell Page was robbed.

Here's my preliminary ballot (numbers shown here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL):

1. Joe Morgan, 21.7 - 14.3, 4.1, 5.8 - he came back to the pack this year relative to his last 4 or 5 seasons, but he's still a narrow #1 for me.
2. Tom Seaver, 19.1 - 12.3, 4.1, 5.7 - very close to Morgan, easily the best pitcher in MLB
3. George Foster, 27.3 - 19.9, 2.9, 5.1 - great season, led MLB in pWins
4. Carlton Fisk, 18.2 - 12.2, 3.0, 4.5 - catcher bonus gets him this high
5. Mike Schmidt, 21.5 - 15.3, 2.7, 4.4 - best 3B in the majors
6. Rod Carew, 19.5 - 13.8, 2.4, 3.9 - better in eWins than pWins
7. Rick Reuschel, 18.1 - 13.4, 3.1, 4.7 - the next 5 slots are starting pitchers who are somewhat interchangeable in terms of ballot position; it just kind of worked out that way
8. Jim Palmer, 19.1 - 13.5, 3.0, 4.7 - I'm even a bit higher on Palmer than #33
9. Steve Carlton, 21.9 - 16.6, 3.6, 5.5 - a good bit worse in eWins (for the 2nd season in a row)
10. J.R. Richard, 18.2 - 15.6, 2.1, 3.8 - one of my favorite pitchers as a kid and one of the great tragedies of my youth; #4 in eWOPA
11. Dennis Leonard, 18.8 - 13.2, 3.0, 4.6
12. Bruce Sutter, 10.2 - 5.0, 2.5, 3.5 - relief pitchers almost never show up in my leader lists; I'm giving Sutter a bit of a boost to get him on the ballot
13. Mitchell Page, 20.1 - 18.3, 0.6, 2.4 - much better in eWins (#10 in eWOPA) than pWins; I have a soft spot for him because Murray stole his Rookie of the Year award.
   35. bjhanke Posted: October 25, 2012 at 04:54 AM (#4282743)
RE: Foster and Parker -

Foster came up as a CF, but when he moved to the Reds, they already had Cesar Geronimo. Foster, it seems, would play CF when Cesar was out, or in late innings when they had pinch-hit for Cesar. 1977 is Foster's career year in general, so he may have been near his defensive peak then, although defense is generally a young man's game. Foster developed a reputation for lackluster defense, because he developed a reputation for lackluster play in all areas. I don't know if the rep was true or not; George was a laid-back guy as a person, so he looked like he wasn't paying much attention to the game, at least to me when I saw him.

Dave Parker had all the tools, especially a cannon arm. He was, essentially, a career RF; the Bucs had people like Omar Moreno to play center. Dave could have developed an unusual amount of value in 1977 by throwing out a lot of runners. That would be my best guess as to why he would outrank Foster with the glove. Foster did not have a great arm, probably not even a good one. Parker won a Gold Glove in 1977, although I think that was during the period when the voters wanted to give separate GGs to LF, CF, and RF, so the voting in that era was skewed towards corner OF. In general, of course, the three best OF in a league are all CFs. - Brock Hanke
   36. lieiam Posted: October 30, 2012 at 12:23 AM (#4288051)
I've been waiting for the ballot thread to open to talk about music because, for me, 1977 is when a glut of musical goodness begins.
I'm probably forgetting some, but my faves of 1977:

1- WIRE- Pink Flag
2- SEX PISTOLS- Never Mind the Bollocks, Here's the Sex Pistols
3- STRANGLERS- No More Heroes
4- DAMNED- Damned, Damned, Damned
5- SAINTS- I'm Stranded
6- TELEVISION- Marquee Moon
7- STRANGLERS- Rattus Norvegicus
8- JAM- This Is The Modern World
9- CLASH- The Clash
10-JAM- In The City

Knowing me I'll probably come up with more and update this later in the thread.
   37. DL from MN Posted: October 30, 2012 at 09:49 PM (#4288871)
You left out "Leave Home" and "Rocket to Russia". 1977 was a good year.
   38. lieiam Posted: October 31, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4288969)
Yes, I realized later last night that I had not thought of The Ramones or Iggy Pop.
I don't know where those albums might go... I don't think they would crack my top six but they could certainly crack my top 10 (which, even w/out what I forgot would probably be different if I were to do it again... Although Pink Flag is comfortably my favorite album of 1977.
   39. DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2012 at 01:20 PM (#4289305)
More 1977 albums

Kraftwerk - Trans-Europe Express
David Bowie - Low, Heroes
Elvis Costello - My Aim Is True
Buzzcocks - Spiral Scratch
Cheap Trick - s/t, In Color
Iggy Pop - The Idiot, Lust for Live
Talking Heads - 77
Modern Lovers - s/t
Richard Hell and Voidoids - Blank Generation
Tom Waits - Foreign Affairs
Queen - News of the World
Throbbing Gristle - Second Annual Report
Brian Eno - Before and After Science
Suicide - s/t
Fela Kuti - Zombie

guilty pleasures
Runaways - Queens of Noise
Kiss - Love Gun, Alive II
Ted Nugent - Cat Scratch Fever
Meat Loaf - Bat out of Hell
Saturday Night Fever soundtrack

and in Dinosaur Rock
Pink Floyd - Animals
Fleetwood Mac - Rumours
Rush - A Farewell to Kings
Neil Young - American Stars and Bars
   40. lieiam Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:57 PM (#4289736)
A couple quibbles on the music list:
Wasn't the Modern Lovers album 1976? If not I need to amend my 1976 favorite album (as that is what I have declared).
And although Buzzcocks are awesome, Spiral Scratch is only 4 songs (great as those songs are!).
Anyway, a great year for music (to my ears at least) and I think 1978 was even better!
   41. bjhanke Posted: November 01, 2012 at 11:35 AM (#4290008)
I just dropped in to say that working up Dick Redding and Gavy Cravath hasn't taken nearly as long as I thought it would, because I got started on them way early. The upshot of that is that I have a day (tonight) to make up a MMP for 1977.

And then you trotted out music. 1977 was, for me, the beginnings of a transition from disco and acoustic ballads to something like rock and roll. Much better. Here are a few of mine, although some of them might not be from this exact year, and I haven't time to go look them up.

I wasn't a big fan of Bowie in that period, but The Buzzcocks are a different question. Their first two or three albums are by far the best. Cheap Trick is just getting started, too, but Iggie and the Stooges (which I what I think the were still calling themselves) were in high (of course) form. The Talking Heads were so good so fast that they have to be on a list. Meat Loaf has the one song he's been hanging his rep on for the last 30 years. Fortunately for him, it's one of the greatest high-school kid frustration rock pieces I've ever heard. I'm not familiar with any particular album, but Kraftwerk is underrated in general. I have no business trying to analyze a Tom Waits song; they are beyond me. Brian Eno is the same. However if any of you has yet to have PRIMUS show up on their "3D" tour, man, you really MUST go. I went last Sunday. Three hours of songs. I had no desire to go get a coke. Or to go to the men's room. Not even during the breaks. I have never been able to say that about a band. They were riveting. Sex Pistols yes, Clash yes, too. Do Wall of Voodoo have anything out this early? There are a LOT of underground college radio acts and songs that I could not get on my weak-powered college radio stations, so I don't know the whens of a lot of these guys. I learned about them watching the great rock flick "Urgh! A Music War." But that came out in 1981, and I just don't know how far back any of the bands there go. Also, News of the World is the album that says, "Queen is the next big thing, guys. They are ALMOST there; same with Fleetwood Mac and Rumors. And another anachronism note: Washing U. here in STL,, has a professor in residence named Ysted Imrat Khan, who was recording well before 1977. If you have any appreciation for Indian Classical Ragas, you gotta try this.
   42. DL from MN Posted: November 01, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4290101)
Modern Lovers album 1976?


Possibly, I was going by Wiki.

If I had to rank them by my favorites (and I only get 13)?

1) Kraftwerk - Trans-Europe Express
2) Wire - Pink Flag
3) Jam - This Is The Modern World / In the City
4) Clash - s/t
5) Elvis Costello - My Aim Is True
6) Ramones - Leave Home, Rocket to Russia
7) David Bowie - Low, Heroes
8) Iggy Pop - The Idiot, Lust for Live
9) Television - Marquee Moon
10) Buzzcocks - Spiral Scratch
11) Throbbing Gristle - Second Annual Report
12) Suicide - s/t
13) Talking Heads - 77

   43. lieiam Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4291469)
One thing I've noticed looking at the various 1977 ballots is the large difference in opinion on Joe Morgan's season.
He's got some very high placements and some off the ballot placements... I thought that was odd... and worth mentioning.
   44. bjhanke Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:53 PM (#4291806)
Iieiam - I just took a look at Morgan - with a player of his caliber, you are right to think it worth mentioning. Win Shares has him down around eighth this year, but all of the guys ahead of him are position players. He outranks any pitcher. WAR has him about 7th among position players, but with TEN pitchers ahead of him. The gap between WAR and Win Shares about pitchers is really getting to be serious, and is, I imagine, why some ballots have Joe so low; they are WAR supporters. - Brock Hanke
   45. JJ1986 Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4297061)
So, I've never voted in one of these before, but I just got my databases built and want to see how they stack up. I'm just going to post a prelim this year.

1. Rod Carew - Clear #1.
2. Jim Palmer - At least 40 more innings than any of the other top pitchers and 70-80 more than many of them.
3. Mike Schmidt - Similar offensive value to a few other guys, but the best defender.
4. Joe Morgan - Not nearly as good as his last two years, but much more playing time than '76 closes the value gap a bit.
5. Goose Gossage - Sutter was better, but Gossage had 25% more innings.
6. George Foster - I hadn't realized he was ever this good.
7. Tom Seaver - Best pitcher compared to average.
8. Carlton Fisk - 149 starts at catcher, plus very good hitting.
9. John Candeleira - Led the majors in ERA and ERA+
10. Frank Tanana - Led the AL in ERA and ERA+
11. Bruce Sutter
12. Rick Reuschel - I thought he'd rank higher. Maybe I should bump him up because of the Cubs defense.
13. Steve Carlton - Next two guys racked up value by pitching a lot of innings
14. Nolan Ryan
15. Reggie Smith - 5th best offensive player in the league relative to position.

How does that look?

   46. Chris Fluit Posted: November 07, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4297084)
Looks good to me. It's okay to wait for further feedback but don't be afraid to post a final ballot this season.
   47. DL from MN Posted: November 07, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4297436)
Looks good to me. I hope you're aware we're only voting for 13.
   48. DL from MN Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:11 PM (#4298132)
JJ1986 - is Parker in your next 5?
   49. JJ1986 Posted: November 08, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4298152)
He's either 16th or 17th. I think I might be underrating him because in 1977 RFers hit significantly better than LFers, but even combining corner outfielders he doesn't make it into the top 13.

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