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Monday, February 25, 2013

Most Meritorious Player: 1980 Discussion

Mike Schmidt’s Phillies beat George Brett’s Royals in the World Series. Royals made it to the World Series by defeating the Yankees. Phillies route to the championship went through Houston.

MMP voting will end on April 03 2013.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Schmidt, Mike		37.7		8.6		
Brett, George		36.2		9.0
Henderson, Rickey	33.0		8.7
Wilson, Willie		31.5		8.3
Yount, Robin		25.4		7.0
Murphy, Dwayne		26.2		6.7
Cooper, Cecil		26.8		6.6
Dawson, Andre		29.3		6.6
Randolph, Willie	29.7		6.5
Hernandez, Keith	28.0		6.4
Oglivie, Ben		27.1		6.2
Bell, Buddy		21.8		6.3
Carter, Gary		30.9		6.2
Murphy, Dale		27.7		6.2
Puhl, Terry		23.0		6.0
Bumbry, Al		32.5		5.9
Armas, Tony		22.0		5.6
Smith, Ozzie		16.6		4.9
Simmons, Ted		22.6		4.9
Cedeno, Cesar		26.5		4.8
Trammell, Alan		20.8		4.6
Templeton, Garry	17.7		4.4
Singleton, Ken		27.1		3.8
Griffey, Ken		25.0		3.6
Cruz, Jose		25.2		4.5
Clark, Jack		23.0		4.5
Jackson, Reggie		30.8		4.5
Cey, Ron		23.4		4.7
Evans, Darrell		26.2		3.8
Cerone, Rick		24.3		3.6


Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR

Carlton, Steve		28.8		9.8
Burns, Britt		21.5		6.7
Rogers, Steve		19.3		5.9
Gura, Larry		22.0		5.7
Norris, Mike		25.0		5.6
Reuschel, Rick		15.4		5.3
Clancy, Jim		18.7		5.3
Sutton, Don		20.3		5.3
Reuss, Jerry		20.8		4.8
May, Rudy		17.6		4.7
Steib, Dave		16.3		4.6

Corbett, Doug		23.9		5.6
McGraw, Tug		17.2		4.6

 

DL from MN Posted: February 25, 2013 at 04:00 PM | 45 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: February 25, 2013 at 04:08 PM (#4375845)
1980 by position

C Carter
1B Hernandez
2B Randolph
SS Yount
3B Schmidt (by a nose, Brett is #2 in baseball)
LF Rickey
CF Bumbry
RF Reggie

P Carlton
RP Corbett
   2. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: February 25, 2013 at 05:22 PM (#4375911)
Britt Burns and Doug Corbett, with two of the great rookie seasons (by WAR), finished 3rd and 5th in ROY behind 2 guys with less than half their total.
   3. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: February 25, 2013 at 05:34 PM (#4375923)
The obvious answer is Joe Niekro, as the greatest clutch pitcher of all time closed out a Jack Morris-level Game 163 and postseason.
Still, I'm wondering who the uninformed statheads will come up with.
   4. tfbg9 Posted: February 25, 2013 at 06:14 PM (#4375946)
Wow. I never realized Willie Wilson had a year that good(he went to one of my HS's).
   5. EricC Posted: February 25, 2013 at 06:18 PM (#4375949)
It's a lot easier to pick out the cream of the crop in 1980 than in 1979.
It will be interesting to see how people compare Brett and Schmidt.
Even though Brett only played 117 games, his rate of performance was so
off-the-charts that he surpasses Schmidt in my system.

My all-star team is nearly identical to DL's:

SP: Carlton
C: Carter
1B: Hernandez
2B: Randolph
SS: Yount
3B: Brett over Schmidt
LF: Henderson
CF: Bumbry
RF: Jackson

RP: Corbett

DH: McRae

Others likely to make my ballot:
P: Norris, Gura and Sutton
LF: Willie Wilson

Honorable mentions:
CF: Dawson,
P: Burns
   6. lieiam Posted: February 26, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4376087)
Here's my prelim... my usual method (uber-stat blender, no postseason bonus, 10% catcher bonus).
And agreed with the earlier comments about Brett and Schmidt... CLOSE.

1 BRETT, GEORGE 9684
2 SCHMIDT, MIKE 9647
3 CARLTON, STEVE 8619
4 HENDERSON, RICKEY 8594
5 WILSON, WILLIE 7974
6 CARTER, GARY 7127
7 BUMBRY, AL 6993
8 RANDOLPH, WILLIE 6948
9 HERNANDEZ, KEITH 6894
10 OGLIVIE, BEN 6604
11 YOUNT, ROBIN 6485
12 JACKSON, REGGIE 6452
13 DAWSON, ANDRE 6420

14 NORRIS, MIKE 6419
15 COOPER, CECIL 6410
16 MURPHY, DWAYNE 6025
17 MURPHY, DALE 6021
18 BELL, BUDDY 6008
19 BURNS, BRITT 5833
20 SIMMONS, TED 5592
   7. DL from MN Posted: February 26, 2013 at 10:01 AM (#4376216)
Schmidt versus Brett is one of those areas where we have to look at league strength and scoring to make the conclusion.

DanR's WAR numbers for league adjustment: NL 0.985 AL 0.929

That turns this:
Player Age Pos SFrac BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1 WARP1/Yr
schmimi 30 5 0.96 6.6 -0.2 1.7 -1.5 9.6 9.9
brettge 27 5 0.75 6.6 0.3 1 -1.7 9.7 12.9


Into this
Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 WAPA2
schmimi 6.5 -0.2 1.7 -1.5 9.4 7.2
brettge 6.1 0.3 0.9 -1.6 9 6.7


So, what started as essentially a tie turns into a 5 run advantage for Schmidt after the league adjustments. I haven't looked at postseason numbers for either player yet.

Brett is destroying everyone by rate. What was the exact injury that caused him to miss a month?
   8. DL from MN Posted: February 26, 2013 at 10:04 AM (#4376220)
Another look at those numbers - Schmidt and Brett are still tied in hitting plus baserunning after the league adjustments (within 1 run). It's all defensive evaluation and playing time that gives Schmidt an advantage.

I got my first bat around this time and it had Brett's signature on it.
   9. DL from MN Posted: February 26, 2013 at 10:12 AM (#4376228)
Probably should have put Steve Stone in the list of pitchers on top. Win Shares 19.4 WAR 3.6
   10. lieiam Posted: February 27, 2013 at 12:04 AM (#4376797)
@ DL from MN:
I don't follow how you're using the "league adjustment" numbers from DanR. I'm also not sure what you mean by "league adjustment". I think you may be using them as league strength but my understanding from an earlier thread in MMP is that they are not league strength numbers.

As for Brett's injury... if I recall, he had serious hemorrhoids issues so I think he may have had surgery on them?
   11. DanG Posted: February 27, 2013 at 08:42 AM (#4376888)
Relief pitchers were still pitching a lot in 1980:

Rk            Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA OPS+
1       Doug Corbett 5.6  221 23  7.805 1.056 63  0 136.1  27 MIN AL 73  8  6 1.98 .213   52
2         Tug McGraw 4.6  260 20  4.080 0.921 48  0  92.1  35 PHI NL 57  5  4 1.46 .194   47
3       Bill Caudill 4.3  181  1  1.354 1.245 27  2 127.2  23 CHC NL 72  4  6 2.19 .223   85
4      Tom Burgmeier 4.0  213 24  5.375 1.081 39  0  99.0  36 BOS AL 62  5  4 2.00 .241   63
5       Jerry Garvin 3.4  190  8  1.375 1.173 24  0  82.2  24 TOR AL 61  4  7 2.29 .233   73
6       Rich Gossage 3.4  173 33  4.964 1.121 58  0  99.0  28 NYY AL 64  6  2 2.27 .211   63
7       Danny Darwin 3.3  148  8 
-0.569 1.350 35  2 109.2  24 TEX AL 53 13  4 2.63 .243   80
8          Rick Camp 3.3  195 22  2.767 1.117 44  0 108.1  27 ATL NL 77  6  4 1.91 .235   68
9       Bruce Sutter 3.2  150 28  3.128 1.212 43  0 102.1  27 CHC NL 60  5  8 2.64 .243   74
10         Ed Farmer 2.6  121 30  0.994 1.485 55  0  99.2  30 CHW AL 64  7  9 3.34 .244   89
11          Tom Hume 2.6  141 25  1.509 1.161 62  0 137.0  27 CIN NL 78  9 10 2.56 .240   80
12      Andy Hassler 2.6  147 10  2.921 1.236 27  0  94.2  28 TOT ML 47  5  1 2.66 .217   79
13        Al Holland 2.6  203  7  1.871 1.275 31  0  82.1  27 SFG NL 54  5  3 1.75 .233   78
14       Greg Minton 2.5  144 19  3.050 1.259 38  0  91.1  28 SFG NL 68  4  6 2.46 .243   71
15        Dave Smith 2.5  171 10 
-0.038 1.188 35  0 102.2  25 HOU NL 57  7  5 1.93 .237   82
16     Woodie Fryman 2.4  160 17  2.800 1.138 40  0  80.0  40 MON NL 61  7  4 2.25 .209   54
17       Dick Tidrow 2.4  141  6 
-1.387 1.293 38  0 116.0  33 CHC NL 84  6  5 2.79 .229   84
18      Shane Rawley 2.3  124 13  2.115 1.460 39  0 113.2  24 SEA AL 59  7  7 3.33 .258   91
19   Dan Quisenberry 2.3  130 33  7.012 1.216 68  0 128.1  27 KCR AL 75 12  7 3.09 .265   78
20      Tim Stoddard 2.2  158 26  2.734 1.279 52  0  86.0  27 BAL AL 64  5  3 2.51 .233   68
21         Ron Davis 2.1  133  7  0.650 1.168 29  0 131.0  24 NYY AL 53  9  3 2.95 .246   78 
   12. DL from MN Posted: February 27, 2013 at 09:57 AM (#4376927)
They're not league strength, they're adjusting runs-to-wins by the standard deviation of run scoring. There was a significant difference in how many runs generated a win in each league.
   13. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: February 27, 2013 at 10:55 AM (#4376960)
Wow. I never realized Willie Wilson had a year that good(he went to one of my HS's).


with an OPS+ of just 113

79/10 basestealing
just 4 GDPs (in 745 PAs)

BBREF WAR has him +24 defensively (in the midst of a 4 year run of +20 each year)
+4 in DP avoidance and +16 baserunning

Basically he cliff-dived both offensively and defensively in the early 80s (Bill James blamed Lee May for messing up Wilson's swing/hitting approach- but that doesn't explain why his defensive numbers crashed simultaneously)


My impression was that going from super duper fast to only super fast was something he never really adjusted to effectively
   14. DL from MN Posted: February 27, 2013 at 12:16 PM (#4377026)
1980 prelim

1) Mike Schmidt
2) George Brett (and it's really, really close)
3) Steve Carlton - best pitcher
4) Rickey Henderson - also excellent
5) Mike Norris - a name I had never become acquainted with before now
6) Britt Burns - and another
7) Willie Wilson
8) Gary Carter
9) Robin Yount
10) Willie Randolph
11) Keith Hernandez
12) Ben Ogilvie
13) Al Bumbry

14-20) Dale Murphy, Andre Dawson, Ron Cey, Buddy Bell, Larry Gura, Dwayne Murphy, Cecil Cooper
   15. lieiam Posted: February 28, 2013 at 12:04 AM (#4377453)
@DL from MN:
Thanks for your clarification in post 12!
   16. EricC Posted: February 28, 2013 at 07:27 AM (#4377488)
Brett is destroying everyone by rate. What was the exact injury that caused him to miss a month?


According the Baseball: The Biographical Encyclopedia, Pietrusza, Silverman, and Gershman, eds (Sport Classic
Books, 2003), Brett, in 1980,

"... missing a month with a knee ligament injury that occurred while sliding, along with being sidelined for 10 days
because of tendonitis in his wrist..."

It doesn't say when during the season these injuries happened.
   17. Mark Donelson Posted: February 28, 2013 at 01:13 PM (#4377706)
It doesn't say when during the season these injuries happened.

Based on his game logs, looks as if the knee injury took place June 10. Seems to have happened when he was stealing second base; he left that game in the top of the 3rd for a pinch runner (Dave Chalk!) and didn't play again till July 10.

The wrist injury was in early September; he didn't play between Sept. 6 and 17.
   18. Mr. C Posted: March 03, 2013 at 06:23 PM (#4379898)
1980 Preliminary

The year of the hitter, particularly in the AL

WAR framework with reduced Replacement runs (WARR)

1. Mike Schmidt 9.65 WARR Fielding numbers and playint time puts him ahead of Brett
2. George Brett 9.05 WARR
3. Steve Carlton 8.60 WARR best pitching season by a wide margin
4. Ricky Henderson 7.9 WARR
5. Ben Oglivie 7.05 WARR
6. Gary Carter 6.55 WARR Next four very closely bunched. More study needed to separate them on final ballot.
7. Willie Wilson 6.55 WARR
8.Keith Hernandez 6.55 WARR
9. Cecil Cooper 6.50 WARR
10. Dale Murphy 6.40 WARR
11. Robin Yount 6.30 WARR
12. Doug Corbett 6.30 WARR
13. Buddy Bell 6.10 WARR

Reminder of top 20
Andre Dawson
Dwayne Murphy
Reggie jackson
Britt Burns
Al Bumbry
Willie Randolph
Tom Burgmeier

   19. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: March 04, 2013 at 04:40 PM (#4380498)
DL from MN, for the record, the LgAdj is not adjusting runs to wins (that's just a straight product of runs per game). It's adjusting the wins-to-pennants relationship.
   20. Rob_Wood Posted: March 04, 2013 at 07:18 PM (#4380573)
Win Values for 1980 starting pitchers (these are my estimates of how many wins each starting pitcher contributed to his team above the league average pitcher over the course of the season by examining the run support he received and the runs he allowed on a game-by-game basis):

NL
1. Steve Carlton 5.9
2. Don Sutton 4.4
3. Vern Ruhle 3.1
4. Scott Sanderson 3.0
5. Jerry Reuss 2.9
6. JR Richard 2.7
7. Vida Blue 2.7
8. Jim Bibby 2.3
9. Bill Gullickson 2.2
10. Frank Pastore 2.2

AL
1. Mike Norris 5.5
2. Britt Burns 4.0
3. Steve Stone 3.4
4. Tommy John 3.2
5. Matt Keough 3.0
6. Rudy May 2.7
7. Scott McGregor 2.5
8. Jim Clancy 2.4
9. Moose Haas 2.2
10. Floyd Bannister 2.2

   21. caiman Posted: March 04, 2013 at 11:47 PM (#4380707)
Here's my list of top NL Hitters for 1980, with run values:

Mike Schmidt 3B 30 Philadelphia 44.91
Keith Hernandez 1B 26 St. Louis 31.03
Jack Clark OF 24 San Francisco 27.30
Mike Easler OF 29 Pittsburgh 25.84
Dave Winfield OF 28 San Diego 25.43
Reggie Smith OF 35 Los Angeles 25.22
Andre Dawson OF 25 Montreal 24.81
Dusty Baker OF 31 Los Angeles 24.74
Ken Griffey OF 30 Cincinnati 24.53
Dale Murphy OF 24 Atlanta 24.30
Lee Mazzilli 1B 25 New York 24.21
Cesar Cedeno OF 29 Houston 21.87
Terry Puhl OF 23 Houston 21.84
Darrell Evans 3B 33 San Francisco 21.57
Gene Tenace C 33 San Diego 21.34
Joe Morgan 2B 36 Houston 19.60
Gary Carter C 26 Montreal 19.25
Ron Cey 3B 32 Los Angeles 18.95
Gene Richards OF 26 San Diego 18.87
Ellis Valentine OF 25 Montreal 18.56
Ted Simmons C 30 St. Louis 18.37
George Foster OF 31 Cincinnati 18.24
Jose Cruz OF 32 Houston 17.37
   22. caiman Posted: March 04, 2013 at 11:49 PM (#4380710)
Here's my List of top NL pitchers for 1980:

Steve Carlton 24-9 35 Philadelphia 35.79
Jerry Reuss 18-6 31 Los Angeles 24.06
Mario Soto 10-8 23 Cincinnati 21.33
J.R. Richard 10-4 30 Houston 19.72
Tug McGraw 5-4 35 Philadelphia 17.32
Don Sutton 13-5 35 Los Angeles 16.11
Frank Pastore 13-7 22 Cincinnati 14.46
Steve Rogers 16-11 30 Montreal 13.24
Rick Camp 6-4 27 Atlanta 12.86
Tom Hume 9-19 27 Cincinnati 12.18
Joe Sambito 8-4 28 Houston 11.92
Woodie Fryman 7-4 40 Montreal 11.06
Bob Forsch 11-10 30 St. Louis 10.28
   23. caiman Posted: March 04, 2013 at 11:52 PM (#4380713)
Here's my list of top AL hitters for 1980:

George Brett 3B 27 Kansas City 54.05
Reggie Jackson OF 34 New York 44.97
Cecil Cooper 1B 30 Milwaukee 38.12
Ben Oglivie OF 31 Milwaukee 36.63
Rickey Henderson OF 21 Oakland 34.83
Ken Singleton OF 33 Baltimore 30.37
Jason Thompson DH 25 Calif/Detr 27.71
Willie Randolph 2B 25 New York 27.05
Eddie Murray 1B 24 Baltimore 23.52
Mike Hargrove 1B 30 Cleveland 20.61
Al Bumbry OF 33 Baltimore 19.92
Chet Lemon OF 25 Chicago 18.81
Buddy Bell 3B 28 Texas 17.63
Dwayne Murphy OF 25 Oakland 16.87
John Mayberry 1B 31 Toronto 16.82
Steve Kemp OF 25 Detroit 16.66
Champ Summers DH 34 Detroit 15.95
Paul Molitor 2B 23 Milwaukee 15.91
Fred Lynn OF 28 Boston 15.24
   24. caiman Posted: March 04, 2013 at 11:54 PM (#4380715)
Here's my list of top AL pitchers for 1980:

Mike Norris 22-9 25 Oakland 29.55
Doug Corbett 8-6 27 Minnesota 22.38
Rudy May 15-5 35 New York 17.76
Britt Burns 15-13 21 Chicago 17.02
Tommy John 22-9 37 New York 16.31
Floyd Bannister 9-13 25 Seattle 15.41
Larry Gura 18-10 32 Kansas City 15.25
Scott McGregor 20-8 26 Baltimore 15.19
Tom Burgmeier 5-4 36 Boston 14.04
Len Barker 19-12 21 Cleveland 13.38
Roger Erickson 7-13 23 Minnesota 12.87
Dan Quisenberry 12-7 27 Kansas City 12.86
Dave Stieb 12-15 22 Toronto 12.74
Rich Gossage 6-2 28 New York 12.31
Jack Morris 16-15 25 Detroit 11.82
Jerry Koosman 16-13 37 Minnesota 11.59
Dennis Eckersley 12-14 25 Boston 10.78
   25. DL from MN Posted: March 07, 2013 at 09:56 AM (#4382735)
1980 ALCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS 
GBrett 3 11 3 3 1 0 2 4 1 0 .273 .333 .909 1.242 0 0  
Wilson 3 13 2 4 2 1 0 4 1 2 .308 .357 .615 .973 0 0 

RJackson 3 11 1 3 1 0 0 0 1 4 .273 .333 .364 .697 0 0  
Randolph 3 13 0 5 2 0 0 1 1 3 .385 .429 .538 .967 0 0 

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP 
Gura 1 1 2.00 1 0 0 1 9.0 10 2 1 4 1.222


If anyone remembers defensive contributions feel free to post them.
   26. DL from MN Posted: March 07, 2013 at 10:00 AM (#4382736)
1980 NLCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS 
Schmidt 5 24 1 5 1 0 0 1 1 6 .208 .240 .250 .490 1 0 

TePuhl 5 19 4 10 2 0 0 3 3 2 .526 .591 .632 1.222 2 0 
Cedeno 3 11 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 .182 .250 .182 .432 0 0 

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP 
Carlton 2 2 2.19 1 0 0 0 12.1 11 3 8 6 1.541 
   27. DL from MN Posted: March 07, 2013 at 10:03 AM (#4382739)
1980 WS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS 
GBrett 6 24 3 9 2 1 1 3 2 4 .375 .423 .667 1.090 1 0 
Wilson 6 26 3 4 1 0 0 0 4 12 .154 .267 .192 .459 2 0  

Schmidt 6 21 6 8 1 0 2 7 4 3 .381 .462 .714 1.176 0 0 

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP 
LGura 2 2 2.19 0 0 0 0 12.1 8 3 3 4 0.892  

Carlton 2 2 2.40 2 0 0 0 15.0 14 4 9 17 1.533 
   28. DL from MN Posted: March 07, 2013 at 10:27 AM (#4382765)
Brett continued his fantastic run through the postseason. Schmidt was cold in the NLCS but hot in the World Series. Carlton pitched 27.1 more very good innings which will get him a 10% boost on my spreadsheet. They only played 11 more games but Carlton pitched 4 of them. Larry Gura deserves some down ballot consideration for his season when you add 21.1 solid postseason innings.

I still think I end up at Schmidt, Brett, Carlton and those are pretty clearly the top 3 guys.

DanR - thanks for the clarification. The number of wins it took to take the NL pennant was different than the AL side.
   29. AndrewJ Posted: March 07, 2013 at 11:15 AM (#4382819)
10>> Brett was treated for the hemorrhoids during the World Series. Didn't slow him down.
   30. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 07, 2013 at 12:02 PM (#4382870)
Joe Niekro:
LATE SEASON
August 12 to October 2, Niekro went 8-2, averaging more than 7 IP a start and then also picking up a win with 2 clutch relief innings in a 1-0 17-inning nail-biter.

GAME 163 - 9 innings, 6 hits, 2 BB, 1 run (unearned): WIN. Astros go to NLCS!

1980 NLCS
GAME THREE - 10 IP, 6 hits, 1 BB, zero runs allowed. Lifted for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the 10th; Astros finally WIN 1-0 in the bottom of the 11th.
   31. AndrewJ Posted: March 07, 2013 at 12:27 PM (#4382890)
Bill James wrote in his 1983 Abstract that the 1980 Phillies were Schmidt, Carlton and McGraw... plus 22 non-entities. A trifle harsh (they got 2/3rds of a season from a rookie Lonnie Smith with a 130 OPS+), but Schmidt is the only Phillie on Caiman's list in post #21.
   32. Kiko Sakata Posted: March 10, 2013 at 07:48 PM (#4385879)
My preliminary 1980 ballot, based on my Player won-lost records: top 25 pWins, top 25 eWins - pWins tie to team wins, eWins are context-neutral. I look at wins over positional average (WOPA) and over replacement level (WORL). The numbers linked and cited here include postseason games, weighted the same as regular-season games. I tend to give bonuses over my numbers to catchers and relief pitchers because my system might be underrating these. I also give slight bonuses for being the best in MLB at your position. I built this ballot under an assumption that the NL was a bit stronger than the AL, but only to the extent that it basically functioned as a tie-breaker and not much more than that.

Here's my ballot, numbers shown here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL

1. George Brett - 19.9 - 11.0, 4.4, 5.8 - lack of games holds his numbers down a bit, so that there's not a lot of separation between 1-3; the rate stats (e.g., win %) push him to #1 on my ballot.
2. Mike Schmidt - 24.4 - 18.0, 2.8, 4.8 - better bulk than Brett at a slightly lower rate. He beats Brett a bit more definitively in context-neutral stats (eWOPA/eWORL of 3.6/5.5 vs. 3.4/4.8 for Brett).
3. Steve Carlton - 22.2 - 14.1, 4.8, 6.4 - very clearly the best pitcher in MLB; has a case for #1 but I like the third basemen a bit better.
4. Willie Wilson - 28.1 - 20.5, 3.3, 5.5 - outside of hitting, did everything else - baserunning, defense - about as well as humanly possible; this is about as good a season as you can put up as a left fielder with an OPS+ of 113 and 3 home runs.
5. Mike Norris - 17.9 - 11.2, 3.5, 4.8 - best pitcher in the AL
6. Robin Yount - 20.7 - 17.1, 2.7, 4.4 - best SS in MLB
7. Willie Randolph - 20.2 - 14.5, 3.4, 5.0 - best 2B in MLB
8. Rickey Henderson - 27.0 - 20.2, 2.7, 4.8 - 1st of what I'm sure will be many times on many MMP ballots
9. Dan Quisenberry - 13.5 - 7.1, 2.9, 4.2 - the 13.5 wins is a fairly extraordinary # in my system for a relief pitcher
10. Dale Murphy - 23.2 - 17.1, 2.6, 4.4 - best CF in MLB
11. Gary Carter - 17.1 - 14.0, 1.7, 3.1 - best C in MLB
12. Jerry Reuss - 14.3 - 9.7, 2.8, 3.9 - my system has him fairly close to Tommy John; I give Reuss the edge because he's in the NL and my system tends to rate Tommy John a bit higher than other systems (e.g., WAR).
13. Andre Dawson - 22.8 - 18.6, 1.6, 3.5 - he makes the ballot over the honorable mentions below because he's an NL player and plays a more valuable defensive position (CF).

Honorable mention:
Tommy John - 17.2 - 12.0, 2.8, 4.1 - my system really likes Tommy John's career; misses my ballot because I downgrade his #'s a bit for that and also he was in the AL
Ben Oglivie - 24.8 - 20.2, 1.7, 3.7 - Dawson makes the ballot ahead of him because Dawson was in the NL and played CF vs. Oglivie's LF
Reggie Jackson - 20.3 - 14.9, 2.4, 4.0 - Reggie looks much better in pWins than eWins (1.9/3.4 eWOPA/eWORL)
Alan Trammell - 18.7 - 16.2, 2.2, 3.7 - very good SS, but behind Yount
J.R. Richard - 9.5 - 5.6, 2.3, 3.0 - if you adjust his season up to give him similar IP to his previous 4 seasons, he's easily in the top 3 and has a strong case for #1 depending on how much you regress his numbers. Damn what a shame about the stroke.

A few other guys who have been named above:
Tug McGraw - 8.2 - 4.1, 2.0, 2.8 - very good year for a relief pitcher, but not nearly as good as Quiz and not quite good enough to justify my putting two relief pitchers on my ballot
Doug Corbett - 10.0 - 6.2, 1.6, 2.7 - also a very good year for a relief pitcher, but only 3rd-best RP in MLB by my system
Joe Niekro - 16.7 - 15.9, 1.2, 2.6 - that's weighting every game the same, including playoffs. If you weight game 163 / playoffs / pennant race games more heavily, you might be able to justify pushing him onto the ballot.

Finally, so far I haven't mentioned any players from my favorite team in 1980, which won 100 games. The Orioles had several very good players, but no really great ones:

Scott McGregor, 16.0 - 11.0, 2.7, 3.8
Al Bumbry, 22.1 - 17.9, 2.0, 3.8
Ken Singleton, 21.9 - 17.2, 1.9, 3.7
Steve Stone, 16.5 - 12.2, 2.3, 3.5
Eddie Murray, 18.8 - 14.5, 1.7, 3.2
Doug DeCinces, 16.8 - 13.7, 1.6, 3.0
   33. EricC Posted: March 13, 2013 at 07:30 PM (#4387928)
1980 prelim

1. George Brett. ML position player WAR leader. Top ML OPS+ by far.
2. Steve Carlton. Top ML pitcher. ML WAR leader.
3. Mike Schmidt. Top NL position player. ML WS leader, but Brett had better rates.
4. Gary Carter. Led NL in games caught (149), and majors in PA for a catcher, with a
126 OPS+, excellent defense, and 101 RBI (don't worry, the RBI had no role in the rating).
5. Willie Randolph. Top ML 2B. 2B who make the top 10 in ML offensive winning % tend to
do well in my system.
6. Rickey Henderson Top ML LF.
7. Reggie Jackson. 2nd in majors in OPS+, even ahead of Schmidt; his merit is reduced
by missing nearly 20 games.
8. Mike Norris. Top AL pitcher.
9. Robin Yount. Top ML SS.
10. Al Bumbry. Top ML CF.
11. Willie Wilson. Only 49 RBI. Slacker. Joking aside, comprehensive stats show the value
of his baserunning and defense.
12. Larry Gura. Next-best SP
13. Don Sutton. ML leader in ERA (2nd when park-adjusted).

14-20. CF Dawson, P Burns, RP Corbett, CF Murphy, 1B Hernandez, LF Oglivie, RF Singleton
   34. DanG Posted: March 14, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4388063)
Bill James wrote in his 1983 Abstract that the 1980 Phillies were Schmidt, Carlton and McGraw... plus 22 non-entities. A trifle harsh (they got 2/3rds of a season from a rookie Lonnie Smith with a 130 OPS+)
Yeah, a bit of an exaggeration. Sure, they didn't have anyone else at an all-star level, but they got an important contribution from Manny Trillo (having his best year), while Bake McBride and Dick Ruthven each had their last productive season.
   35. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: March 14, 2013 at 12:22 AM (#4388065)
Joe Niekro - 16.7 - 15.9, 1.2, 2.6 - that's weighting every game the same, including playoffs. If you weight game 163 / playoffs / pennant race games more heavily, you might be able to justify pushing him onto the ballot.

Which you should, because this is when the greatest clutch pitcher of the last 40 years began to make his mark.
   36. caiman Posted: March 18, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4390589)
To Dan G.:

Manny Trillo did NOT have a good year. He cost his team 4.31 runs on offense, according to my evaluation.

The top producers for the Phillies:

Mike Schmidt: 44.91 runs
Steve Carlton: 35.79 runs
Tug McGraw: 17.32 runs
Greg Luzinski: 10.21 runs
Lonnie Smith: 8.72 runs
Larry Christenson: 7.92 runs (2.06 on offense + 5.86 pitching. He went 7 for 19 with a homer and 3 walks as a hitter!)
Ron Reed: 7.09 runs
   37. Chris Fluit Posted: March 19, 2013 at 01:46 PM (#4391413)
AL Only:

1. George Brett, 3B, Kansas City Royals- clear #1
2. Mike Norris, P, Oakland Athletics- narrow #2
3. Cecil Cooper, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
4. Ben Ogilvie, LF, Milwaukee Brewers- Harvey's Wallbangers arrive in force
5. Rickey Henderson, LF, Oakland Athletics- a nice breakout year for Rickey
6. Reggie Jackson, RF/DH, New York Yankees
7. Larry Gura, P, Kansas City Royals
8. Robin Yount, SS, Milwaukee Brewers- a nice breakout year for Yount
9. Willie Wilson, LF/CF, Kansas City Royals- defense and baserunning make up for low OPS+
10. Willie Randolph, 2B, New York Yankees- solid hitting from a glove position
   38. Chris Fluit Posted: March 19, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4391456)
NL Only:

1. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies- clear #1
2. Steve Carlton, P, Philadelphia Phillies- clear #2
3. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals- my system loves fulltime catchers who can hit
4. Keith Hernandez, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
5. Gary Carter, C, Montreal Expos
6. Don Sutton, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Tug McGraw, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
8. Steve Rogers, P, Montreal Expos
t-9. Andre Dawson, CF, Montreal Expos
t-9. Dale Murphy, CF, Atlanta Braves

   39. Chris Fluit Posted: March 19, 2013 at 02:17 PM (#4391476)
Combined Preliminary Ballot:

1. George Brett, 3B, Kansas City Royals: simply a dominating season with 203 OPS+, 135 runs created and +9 runs on defense
2. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: dominates the senior circuit with +11 fielding runs and league-leading numbers in OPS+ and runs created
3. Steve Carlton, P, Philadelphia Phillies: easy 1-2-3, first in ERA+ with 162 and first in innings pitched with 304
4. Mike Norris, P, Oakland Athletics: big gap from Carlton to Norris but Norris leads the rest of the pack with 149 ERA+ in 284 innings
5. Cecil Cooper, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
6. Ben Ogilvie, LF, Milwaukee Brewers: two big bats (155 and 153 OPS+ respectively) combined with positive contributions from the field (+8 and +13 fielding runs)
7. Ted Simmons, C, St. Louis Cardinals: my system loves full-time catchers who can hit (140 OPS+)
8. Rickey Henderson, LF, Oakland Athletics: top ten in OPS+ with even greater contributions on the basepaths and in the field (+18 fielding runs)
9. Keith Hernandez, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: great defense (+12 fielding runs) and a great bat (147 OPS+)
10. Reggie Jackson, RF/DH, New York Yankees: time at DH drops Reggie below Keith, Rickey and Ted but a 172 OPS+ is still good enough for most ballots
11. Gary Carter, C, Montreal Expos: another catcher who can hit (126 OPS+) though Carter has the much better glove (+13 fielding runs)
12. Larry Gura, P, Kansas City Royals: 2nd best pitcher in the AL with 136 ERA+ in 283 innings
13. Robin Yount, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: Yount sneaks into the coveted final ballot slot ahead of Wilson, Randolph, Sutton and McGraw
   40. Yardape Posted: April 01, 2013 at 05:41 PM (#4401483)
My prelim. Extrapolated runs for offensive, my own weighting of defensive metrics for defense. I combine FIP and RA ratings for pitching. I give postseason credit.

1. Mike Schmidt
2. Steve Carlton
3. George Brett - Brett may have been the best player on a rate basis, but the lower playing time drops him below the two Phillies. Carlton is easily the best pitcher of the year.
4. Ben Ogilvie - This season really took me by surprise. We're starting to get into players that I saw play, but Ogilvie is a new revelation for me.
5. Al Bumbry -Best CF
6. Robin Yount - Best SS
7. Mike Norris - Best AL pitcher
8. Rickey Henderson - Rickey! makes his name
9. Frank White - Best 2B, including a fairly strong postseason
10. Willie Randolph
11. Gary Carter - Best C. Good defense, strong hitting season.
12. Cecil Cooper
13. Willie Wilson - Very interesting player. Good season, including playoffs.

Next five: Reggie!, Trammell, Dawson, Dale Murphy, Keith Hernandez
   41. Yardape Posted: April 03, 2013 at 06:00 PM (#4403526)
It is not germane to our discussion, and I didn't have time to look at the Japanese season closely, but 1980 was the last year of Oh Sadaharu's career. I thought it was at least worth noting here.
   42. lieiam Posted: April 07, 2013 at 09:14 PM (#4407158)
My favorite albums of 1980:
I haven't managed to make the time for a longer list, so here's just my super favorites of the year-
1- The Wipers- Is This Real?
2- XTC- The Black Album
3- The Soft Boys- Underwater Moonlight
4- Teardrop Explodes- Kilimanjaro
5- The Dead Kennedys- Fresh Fruit For Rotting Vegetables
6- The Fall- Grotesque (After The Gramme)
   43. DL from MN Posted: April 07, 2013 at 11:33 PM (#4407215)
Great stuff from 1980

Devo - Freedom of Choice
Joy Division - Closer
X - Los Angeles
Talking Heads - Remain in Light
Tom Waits - Heartattack and Vine
David Bowie - Scary Monsters
PIL - Metal Box
Bauhaus - In the Flat Field
Jam - Sound Affects
Clash - Sandinista!
Feelies - Crazy Rhythms
Dead Kennedys - Fresh Fruit...
Soft Boys - Underwater Moonlight
Pere Ubu - Art of Walking
Elvis Costello - Get Happy!!
Ramones - End of the Century
Suicide - Suicide
The Birthday Party - The Birthday Party
AC/DC - Back in Black
Blues Brothers Soundtrack
Prince - Dirty Mind
Lennon/Ono - Double Fantasy
   44. sunnyday2 Posted: April 08, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4407543)
1980 and the early '80s generally were not great for rock 'n roll music, though there were some good offerings. Obviously this is a generationally different take than DL.

(Remain in Light however is an all-time favorite, but I don't have it as a 1980 release....)

1. The Wall--Pink Floyd. Released 1979, it's true, but it was basically the soundtrack for the year.
2. American Garage--Pat Metheny Group. Fabulous rock instrumentals, kind of the Ventures of their day.
3. Joe’s Garage, Vol. 2 and 3--Frank Zappa
4. Little Stevie Orbit*--Steve Forbert
5. New Chataqua--Pat Metheny. This was probably released prior to 1980 but I just discovered it then.
6. Jackrabbit Slim--Steve Forbert. Ditto.
7. San Antonio Rose--Willie Nelson and Ray Price
8. Borderline--Ry Cooder
9. Making Movies--Dire Straits
10. Just One Night--Eric Clapton
11. Humans--Bruce Cockburn
12. One Trick Pony--Paul Simon
13. The Pretenders
14. The Cars
15. Tenement Steps--The Motors
   45. lieiam Posted: April 09, 2013 at 01:04 AM (#4408165)
Sometimes I type and post faster than I think.
Correction to my list in post 42.
The correct name of the album by XTC that I have at #2 is The Black Sea.
I must gotten muddled in my mind with The Black Album by The Damned (which also came out in 1980).

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