Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Hall of Merit > Discussion
Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Most Meritorious Player: 1983 Discussion

Cal Ripken leads the Orioles to a championship. The Orioles beat the Phillies in the World Series and White Sox in the ALCS. Phillies beat the Dodgers in the NLCS.

MMP voting will end on July 10, 2013.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Cal Ripken		36.2		8.2
Wade Boggs		34.0		7.8
Gary Carter		25.7		7.1
Dale Murphy		31.5		7.1
Dickie Thon		31.0		7.4
Robin Yount		33.1		7.2
Rickey Henderson	30.0		6.9
Mike Schmidt		35.4		6.8
Eddie Murray		31.1		6.6
Andre Dawson		27.3		6.8
Lou Whitaker		28.8		6.7
Jose Cruz		30.1		6.2
Chet Lemon		20.6		6.2
Pedro Guerrero		32.0		5.5
Tim Raines		28.3		5.9
Keith Hernandez		22.5		5.6
Johnny Ray		20.1		5.1
Alan Trammell		25.6		6.0
Lloyd Moseby		25.0		6.0
Jim Rice		24.7		5.6
Lance Parrish		25.4		4.7
Terry Kennedy		25.2		4.4
Carlton Fisk		25.6		4.3
Jack Clark		20.0		3.8
Don Baylor		20.9		3.5
Darrell Evans		28.0		4.0
Willie Upshaw		22.0		4.7
Jim Gantner		22.1		4.3
Bill Doran		22.9		4.8


John Denny		22.5		7.5
Dave Stieb		24.1		7.0
Mario Soto		24.6		6.7
Steve Carlton		18.2		5.7
Scott McGregor		20.5		5.5
Ron Guidry		19.4		5.3
Rich Dotson		21.1		5.1
Matt Young		15.5		5.1
Jack Morris		19.6		4.0
LaMarr Hoyt		19.6		3.7
Charlie Hough		18.7		4.7
Rick Rhoden		16.5		4.7
Craig McMurtry		16.3		4.7

Dan Quisenberry		27.8		5.5
Lee Smith		18.3		4.8
Bob Stanley		20.8		4.0
Jesse Orosco		19.3		4.0

 

DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2013 at 04:05 PM | 46 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2013 at 04:17 PM (#4454899)
hot topics
   2. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 29, 2013 at 04:29 PM (#4454910)
Chet Lemon was a fun player to watch.

God I forgot Matt Young was ever good.
   3. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 29, 2013 at 04:52 PM (#4454934)
Unlike the situation for most of his career, Ripken had a tremendous final month of the season. The Orioles went into first place for good on August 26, and went 25-7 from that point until the September 25 clincher. During that stretch Ripken hit .393/.409/.607 with 7 HR and 24 RBI while playing every inning (of course).

But Eddie Murray was even better over that same stretch, .347/.432/.643, 8 HR, 27 RBI. Murray's WPA was 1.84, Ripken's was .72. Yes, Cal gets bonus points for playing SS, but Murray won a Gold Glove at 1B, while Ripken didn't (although that may have been just a function of their relative career lengths at that point).

The MVP vote was pretty close (Cal 15 first, 82% share, Eddie 10, 74%), and I think in terms of what they actually did on the field they are a lot closer than the WS/WAR difference implies. If you said "Cal and Eddie led the Orioles to the WS win" I think you'd be a lot closer to the truth.

-- MWE
   4. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2013 at 05:45 PM (#4454993)
Chet Lemon had limited playing time this year with good rate stats.
   5. DL from MN Posted: May 29, 2013 at 06:01 PM (#4455004)
BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1
3.7 -0.1 1.9 -4.7 10.2 Ripken
5.3 0.3 0.4 -1 6.9 Murray

Murray was the better hitter but playing SS matters to the tune of 3.7 Wins and though Murray was a gold glove winner he doesn't appear to be much more than above average at 1B. Ripken was a very good shortstop. Only Mike Schmidt, Johnny Ray and Glenn Hubbard put up that kind of defensive value relative to their position using DanR's numbers.

Best team

C - Gary Carter
1B - Eddie Murray
2B - Lou Whitaker
3B - Mike Schmidt
SS - Cal Ripken
LF - Tim Raines
CF - Dale Murphy
RF - Uhhhhhh, Jack Clark I guess. Bad year in RF

P - John Denny, Dave Stieb, Mario Soto, Steve Carlton
RP - Dan Quisenberry
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 30, 2013 at 12:50 PM (#4455834)
playing SS matters to the tune of 3.7 Wins


The Oriole third basemen in 1983 were Todd Cruz, Leo Hernandez, Aurelio Rodriguez, and Glenn Gulliver (and occasionally Rich Dauer, in games where Lenn Sakata would play 2B). Collectively, they gave the Orioles about as much value as a replacement-level shortstop probably would have (at best; one could argue that they were worse). Put Ripken back at 3B and throw in a typical replacement-level SS (say, Bob Bonner, who was still in the system that year); would the Orioles have been any worse off? Do you think the difference between Ripken at 3B/Bonner at SS would have been 3.7 wins less than Ripken at SS and the collection of junk that played 3B?

Ripken's getting credit for doing what he did while playing SS. Conceptually, I buy that you need to consider position when evaluating an individual player's merit; it's certainly not Ripken's fault that the Orioles couldn't get a decent 3B to save their lives in 1983, and indeed for most of his career. I'm certainly not arguing that Murray was a better choice for MMP than Ripken in 1983, only that Ripken gets too much credit just for playing SS when the Orioles may have been equally well served by leaving him on 3B.

-- MWE
   7. Chris Fluit Posted: May 30, 2013 at 01:37 PM (#4455897)
Ripken's getting credit for doing what he did while playing SS.


Rightly so. And Boggs is getting credit for what he did while playing 3B, Carter is getting credit for what he did while playing C and Murphy is getting credit for what he did while playing CF. Any of those guys could have been placed at a different primary position (Boggs has 67 career games at 1B, Carter 137 in OF and Murphy 28 in LF for 1983 alone).

If Ripken had played 3B instead of SS, his bat might not look quite as good for the position but he would likely be worth more runs as a fielder. Ripken gets credit for where he played not for where you hypothetically think he should have played. The Orioles put Ripken where they thought he would be most valuable to the team and they were apparently right. Ripken shouldn't be penalized because of Baltimore's inability to find a good third baseman anymore than Murphy should be penalized because of Atlanta's inability to find a real left fielder.
   8. DL from MN Posted: May 30, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4455945)
Put Ripken back at 3B and throw in a typical replacement-level SS; would the Orioles have been any worse off?


Yes. Ripken was one of the best defenders in baseball. Putting him at 3B would have negatively impacted the Oriole defense because someone else would handle more chances in the field. You wanted Ripken fielding the ball as much as possible. SS doesn't just handle batted balls, they're also the most involved in the "team" defensive duties like rundowns, relays and holding runners. I wish I could dig it up but I'm certain that I read according to contemporary observers (managers and coaches) Ripken was ranked the best in baseball fundamentally.
   9. GuyM Posted: May 30, 2013 at 03:39 PM (#4456051)
Do you think the difference between Ripken at 3B/Bonner at SS would have been 3.7 wins less than Ripken at SS and the collection of junk that played 3B?

Mike, that's not what the WAR construction says. Quite the opposite: it assumes that SS-Ripken + 3B-replacement = 3B-Ripken + SS-Replacement. The claim being made is that a replacement-level SS is about 37 runs worse on offense than a replacement-level 1B. Do you disagree with that? That may be a little high, but seems to be in the right ballpark.
   10. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 30, 2013 at 05:05 PM (#4456134)
Guy et al - I know what the WAR construction says; what I'm suggesting is that some portion of Ripken's value should be ascribed to the fact that he did what he did at SS - which he had no control over.

We assume, when computing replacement value, that it's OK to treat the defensive difference between positions as equivalent to the offensive difference between positions, so that the gross offense+defense contribution is the same at each position - i.e. if the replacement-level SS is 37 runs worse than the replacement level 1B offensively, the replacement-level SS contributes 37 more runs defensively at SS than the replacement-level 1B does at 1B, and the run value to the team of average defense at SS is 37 runs higher than the run value to the team of average defense at 1B (since replacement-level fielders tend to be average defenders for their position). The conclusion that I draw from this is that there's value in opportunity at SS, and that some part of a shortstop's value when compared to the value of a teammate at a different position comes simply from playing the position.

I have no doubt that Ripken was more valuable as a SS than as a 3B, and that he was more valuable (overall) to the Orioles than Eddie Murray was in 1983; I'm only suggesting that the value difference in WS and WAR overstates the real difference in value and that part of it can be explained by the fact that Ripken played SS and Murray played 1B.

-- MWE
   11. DL from MN Posted: May 30, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4456168)
Let's flip it around. Would the Orioles have been better served to play Eddie Murray at 3B and find another 1B?
   12. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: May 30, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4456177)
Wow, I had literally never heard of John Denny before I opened this page.
   13. Mr. C Posted: June 01, 2013 at 09:28 AM (#4457646)
If we assign a position adjustment based on the "defensive value" of the position (as baseball reference and fangraphs do) rather than the offensive difference between positions, the adjustment for Ripken in +10 and for Murray is -9. So the difference (using this method) between Murray and Ripken, because of the position they play, would be about 2 wins. Of course, the second thing that is involved with fielding is how well they play the position. The defensive value I use (an average of TZ and DRA) gives Ripken a +12 runs and Murray a +5.5 runs. So according to this valuation, Ripken would be between 2.5 and 3 wins better than Murray because of his defense (including position played and performance).
   14. Mr. C Posted: June 01, 2013 at 09:58 AM (#4457654)
My all star teams for 1983

Al

C Ted Simmons
1b Eddie Murray
2b Lou Whitaker
3b wade Boggs
SS Cal Ripken
LF Ricky Henderson
CF Lloyd Moseby
RF mark Davis
DH Ken Singleton

Starters: Dave Stieb, Richard Dotson, Scott McGregor, Matt Young
Reliever: Bob Stanley

An argument can be made that Simmons did not catch enough to qualify as an all star, so in that case Carlton Fisk would be my choice.

NL

C Gary Carter
1b Darrell Evans
2b Johnny Ray
3b Mike Schmidt
SS Dickie Thon
lf Jose Cruz
cf Dale Murphy
rf Jack Clark

starters: Mario Soto, John Denny, Steve Carlton, John Candelaria
reliever: Tom Niedenfuer

   15. toratoratora Posted: June 01, 2013 at 10:56 AM (#4457666)
RF mark Davis?
   16. caiman Posted: June 01, 2013 at 11:01 AM (#4457667)
The Top RPA NL Hitters for 1983:

Top Hitter Pos Age Team Runs
Mike Schmidt 3B 33 Philadelphia 42.27
Jose Cruz OF 35 Houston 38.34
Dale Murphy OF 27 Atlanta 36.01
Pedro Guerrero 3B 27 Los Angeles 34.08
Darrell Evans 1B 36 San Francisco 29.62
Tim Raines OF 23 Montreal 28.55
Keith Hernandez 1B 29 NY/STL 24.74
Dickie Thon SS 25 Houston 22.98
Andre Dawson OF 28 Montreal 20.02
George Hendrick 1B 33 St. Louis 19.75
Bill Doran 2B 25 Houston 18.67
Darryl Strawberry OF 21 New York 17.95
Terry Puhl OF 26 Houston 17.80
Lonnie Smith OF 27 St. Louis 16.66
Bob Horner 3B 25 Atlanta 16.30
Keith Moreland OF 29 Chicago 16.14
Leon Durham OF 25 Chicago 15.53
Joe Morgan 2B 39 Philadelphia 15.42
   17. caiman Posted: June 01, 2013 at 11:03 AM (#4457668)
The Top RRA NL Pitchers for 1983:

Atlee Hammaker 10-9 25 San Francisco 21.72
Mario Soto 17-13 26 Cincinnati 20.34
John Denny 19-6 30 Philadelphia 18.90
Alejandro Pena 12-9 24 Los Angeles 18.59
Jesse Orosco 13-7 26 New York 17.06
Tom Niedenfuer 8-3 23 Los Angeles 16.89
Kent Tekulve 7-5 36 Pittsburgh 15.86
Steve Rogers 17-12 33 Montreal 15.00
Lee Smith 4-10 25 Chicago 14.26
Bob Welch 15-12 26 Los Angeles 13.37
   18. caiman Posted: June 01, 2013 at 11:05 AM (#4457670)
The Top RPA AL Hitters for 1983:

Top Hitter Pos Age Team Runs
Eddie Murray 1B 27 Baltimore 40.38
Robin Yount SS 27 Milwaukee 35.13
Rickey Henderson OF 24 Oakland 32.61
Wade Boggs 3B 25 Boston 32.48
Jim Rice OF 30 Boston 28.22
Cecil Cooper 1B 33 Milwaukee 27.48
Cal Ripken SS 22 Baltimore 26.28
Bobby Grich 2B 34 California 26.21
George Brett 3B 30 Kansas City 26.04
Alan Trammell SS 25 Detroit 22.98
Lou Whitaker 2B 26 Detroit 22.43
Dave Winfield OF 31 New York 22.20
Ken Singleton DH 36 Baltimore 22.09
Greg Luzinski DH 32 Chicago 21.68
Don Baylor DH 34 New York 20.95
Larry Herndon OF 29 Detroit 20.08
Willie Aikens 1B 28 Kansas City 19.74
Chet Lemon OF 28 Detroit 19.61
Willie Upshaw 1B 26 Toronto 18.02
Ben Oglivie OF 34 Milwaukee 18.01
Fred Lynn OF 31 California 17.48
Carlton Fisk C 35 Chicago 17.13
Ted Simmons C 33 Milwaukee 16.57
   19. caiman Posted: June 01, 2013 at 11:08 AM (#4457671)
The Top RPA AL Pitchers for 1983:

Dave Stieb 17-12 25 Toronto 32.14
LaMarr Hoyt 24-10 28 Chicago 26.87
Dan Quisenberry 5-3 30 Kansas City 24.00
Mike Boddicker 16-8 25 Baltimore 19.28
Dave Righetti 14-8 24 New York 17.53
Floyd Bannister 16-10 28 Chicago 14.97
Danny Darwin 8-13 27 Texas 14.45
Storm Davis 13-7 21 Baltimore 13.81
Bob Stanley 8-10 28 Boston 12.29
Ron Guidry 21-9 32 New York 11.87
Tom Burgmeier 6-7 39 Oakland 11.68
George Frazier 4-4 28 New York 11.59
Charlie Hough 15-13 35 Texas 11.56
Dave Stewart 10-4 26 Tex/LA-NL 11.43
Salome Barojas 3-3 26 Chicago 10.97
Bert Blyleven 7-10 32 Cleveland 10.97
Scott McGregor 18-7 29 Baltimore 10.78
Neal Heaton 11-7 23 Cleveland 10.31
   20. Mr. C Posted: June 01, 2013 at 11:08 AM (#4457672)
Sorry, a name from anoher time!!!

Mike Davis
   21. DanG Posted: June 03, 2013 at 12:13 AM (#4458797)
Relief IP making a discernible downward trend.

Rk            Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS    IP Age  Tm Lg  G  W  L  ERA   BA OPS+
1    Dan Quisenberry 5.5  210 45  4.387 0.928 62  0 139.0  30 KCR AL 69  5  3 1.94 .229   52
2          Lee Smith 4.8  229 29  3.091 1.074 56  0 103.1  25 CHC NL 66  4 10 1.65 .194   50
3        Bob Stanley 4.0  153 33  3.713 1.259 53  0 145.1  28 BOS AL 64  8 10 2.85 .266   76
4       Jesse Orosco 3.8  248 17  3.458 1.036 42  0 110.0  26 NYM NL 62 13  7 1.47 .197   51
5       Kent Tekulve 3.8  228 18  2.458 1.152 56  0  99.0  36 PIT NL 76  7  5 1.64 .223   65
6     Tom Niedenfuer 3.6  190 11  2.763 0.887 38  0  94.2  23 LAD NL 66  8  3 1.90 .170   37
7       Rich Gossage 3.5  172 22  1.885 1.225 47  0  87.1  31 NYY AL 57 13  5 2.27 .248   76
8     Tippy Martinez 3.4  169 21  3.467 1.094 51  0 103.1  33 BAL AL 65  9  3 2.35 .211   69
9         Al Holland 3.3  160 25  1.982 1.015 53  0  91.2  30 PHI NL 68  8  4 2.26 .188   68
10     Terry Forster 3.3  181 13  1.960 1.147 29  0  79.1  31 ATL NL 56  3  2 2.16 .217   67
11      Dave Stewart 3.2  146  8  3.359 1.237 25  9 135.0  26 TOT ML 54 10  4 2.60 .235   77
12        Steve Howe 3.1  251 18  0.776 0.976 33  0  68.2  25 LAD NL 46  4  7 1.44 .218   47
13    Salome Barojas 2.6  170 12  2.227 1.168 29  0  87.1  26 CHW AL 52  3  3 2.47 .224   67
14       Luis DeLeon 2.4  132 13  2.989 1.045 34  0 111.0  24 SDP NL 63  6  6 2.68 .224   72
15   Warren Brusstar 2.3  162  1 
-0.576 1.295 21  0  80.1  31 CHC NL 59  3  1 2.35 .234   77 
   22. Chris Fluit Posted: June 03, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4458986)
That's a great season by Quiz. It could get a low ballot spot from me.
   23. Mr. C Posted: June 09, 2013 at 09:42 AM (#4464833)
Preliminary Ballot

Batters: start with RA (using value added runs), adjust for park, position and defense (average of TZ and DRA) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal Runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

Pitchers: start with RA (using value added runs) adjust for quality of opposition, park, team defense and role (reliever or starter) Convert adjusted RAA to wins. Add 60% of normal runs above replacement to get WARR (wins above reduced replacement)

1, Wade Boggs 7.96 WARR
2. Jose Cruz 7.3 WARR
3. Mike Schmidt 7.23 WARR I knew that Mike Schmidt had a great career, but what I hadn't realized was how long he had performed at this elite level.
4. Cal Ripken 7.05 WARR
5. Dave Stieb 6.97 WARR
6. Dickie Thon 6.72 WARR
7. Eddie Murray 6.61 WARR
8. Dale Murphy 6.36 WARR
9. Ricky Henderson 6.13 WARR
10. Tim Raines 6.02 WARR
11. Mario Soto 5.83 WARR
12. Gary Carter 5.79 WARR
13. Robin Yount 5.76 WARR

Rest of the top 20
Lou Whitaker
John Denny
Pedro Guerrero
John Castino
Bob Stanley
Lloyd Moseby
Richard Dotson


   24. lieiam Posted: June 09, 2013 at 01:37 PM (#4464920)
Here's my prelim ballot (presumably will be the same as my final ballot). No post season included. 10% catcher bonus.
Blending of six systems (4 of the WAR/WARP variety and 2 WS/WSAB).

1 Ripken, Cal 9893
2 Boggs, Wade 9093
3 Schmidt, Mike 8937
4 Yount, Robin 8669
5 Thon, Dickie 8303
6 Murphy, Dale 8014
7 Henderson, Rickey 8001
8 Murray, Eddie 7957
9 Denny, John 7451
10 Stieb, Dave 7397
11 Cruz, Jose 7316
12 Whitaker, Lou 7098
13 Guerrero, Pedro 7023

14 Carter, Gary 7022
15 Soto, Mario 6954
16 Dawson, Andre 6843
17 Trammell, Alan 6835
18 Raines, Tim 6762
19 Quisenberry, Dan 6632
20 Moseby, Lloyd 6401

My top 5 consists of 3 shortstops and 2 thirdbasemen.
   25. bjhanke Posted: June 10, 2013 at 10:44 AM (#4465673)
Moving Cal to SS is a testament to Earl Weaver's genius. Weaver, in general, relied more on his third basemen than almost any manager other than Bobby Cox, who seems to be a thorough Weaver follower. Earl's approach to team makeup consisted of 1) defense up the middle, almost regardless of offense (Rick Dempsey), although he'd take Bobby Grich when he saw him, and 2) offense down the lines, Boog Powell and the assorted corner outfield platoons. Third base was neither fish nor fowl. Earl realized that he needed a good glove there to support his up the middle defense, but he also considered 3B part of "offense down the lines." With those high standards, his idea of a 3B was Brooks or Doug DeCinces - a superstar. Well, he had one in Cal, but decided that Cal was too good a glove to keep at 3B. So he moved Cal to SS, and went looking for another 3B. Weaver's ability to see through Cal's body type and move him to SS was truly a case of someone breaking his own rules because he had found a unique player. - Brock Hanke
   26. SoCalDemon Posted: June 10, 2013 at 06:31 PM (#4466240)
So I am going to try to do a ballot for 83, after missing the last several years with work overload. I had a question about mid 80s shortstops; what does DanR say about the value of a shortstop in this era, relative to bWAR? For the 70s, I had included a substantial shortstop bonus (I like bWAR's numbers overall, but included hortstop and catcher bonuses). For DanR, does the relative extra value of an average to aove average shortstop continue into the 80s...is this value still realtively similar, or are replacement shortstops getting better during this timeframe? Thanks in advance!
   27. OCF Posted: June 10, 2013 at 06:43 PM (#4466255)
"Shortstops of this era" has to most emphatically include Dickie Thon. Based on what was known at the end of the 1983 season, who would you have wanted to see under contract for your team? Choices include Ripken, Thon, Trammell, Templeton, Ozzie. It sure looked like a good time for shortstops, and Thon looked like a major star. Then, early the next year ...
   28. EricC Posted: June 11, 2013 at 10:07 PM (#4467340)
1983 prelim. Ratings are based on a combination of about
75% win shares and 25 % WAR, and include information about
rates, playing time, and performance relative to position.

1983 was a tight year- large difference in the rankings
do not necessarily indicate large differences in performance,
and noteworthy seasons such as Trammell's and Dawson's don't even
make my top 20.

Schmidt nearly beat our Ripken at number one, but playing every
inning helped boost Ripken to the top.

Fisk over Carter as top C is a surprise, explained by Fisk's
advantage in performance rates (at least in win shares;
also reflected in his OPS+), in a relative off-year for Carter.

1. Cal Ripken.
2. Mike Schmidt.
3. Robin Yount.
4. Wade Boggs.
5. Dale Murphy.
6. Dave Stieb.
7. Rickey Henderson.
8. Eddie Murray.
9. Pedro Guerrero.
10. Dickie Thon.
11. Carlton Fisk.
12. Mario Soto.
13. Jose Cruz.

14-20. John Denny, Gary Carter, Lou Whitaker, Darrell Evans,
Terry Kennedy, Tim Raines, Dan Quisenberry

Top RF: Jack Clark (as DL already noted, not a great year for RF)
Top DH: Don Baylor
   29. Chris Fluit Posted: June 11, 2013 at 11:18 PM (#4467437)
OCF, "shortstops of the era" should really include Yount as well. He did kinda win that whole MMP thing in 1982.
   30. OCF Posted: June 11, 2013 at 11:35 PM (#4467462)
Oops. Yeah, I intended to include him. Bad proofreading.
   31. lieiam Posted: June 11, 2013 at 11:57 PM (#4467492)
@SoCalDemon #26:
I don't know the details of how Dan R's system treats shortstops for this era but his system remains more favorable to shortstops at least through this season (1983).
For example, compared to brWAR, here's a list of shortstops in the top 20:
Dan R WARP1:
1 ripken 10.2
2 yount 9.9
4 thon 8.5
6 trammell 7.3
16 smalley 5.2

br WAR
1 ripken 8.2
3 thon 7.4
4 yount 7.2
14.5 trammell 6.0

Just to give you a glimpse until someone replies in detail.
   32. DL from MN Posted: June 13, 2013 at 12:20 PM (#4468639)
1983 Prelim

1) Cal Ripken - great defensive season, great durability
2) Robin Yount - not quite a repeat, better rate stats than Ripken, worse defense and playing time
3) Mike Schmidt - another year in the top 5, remarkable consistency
4) Dickie Thon - top non-HOM
5) Wade Boggs - does that answer your question about how DanR values SS?
6) John Denny - top pitcher
7) Alan Trammell - another SS
8) Tim Raines
9) Dale Murphy
10) Eddie Murray
11) Dave Stieb - top AL pitcher
12) Jose Cruz
13) Pedro Guerrero
14-20) Rickey Henderson, Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Mario Soto, Carlton Fisk, Lou Whitaker, Charlie Hough

Fisk versus Carter gets into league strength, defensive evaluation and durability but NOT playoff credit (Fisk had a bad postseason)
   33. Chris Fluit Posted: June 17, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4471249)
1983 Prelim Ballot

1. Cal Ripken Jr., SS, Baltimore Orioles: 144 OPS+ plus very good defense at short (+11 fielding runs)
2. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox: 150 OPS+ plus pretty good defense as third (+7 fielding runs)
3. Robin Yount, SS, Milwaukee Brewers: a nice encore performance to his 1982 MMP, but his 150 OPS+ is dragged down by mediocre defense (-3 fielding runs, plus time at DH)
4. Mike Schmidt, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: the best player in the NL with a 156 OPS+ and +5 fielding runs
5. Eddie Murray, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: a 156 OPS+ and +9 fielding runs
6. Dale Murphy, CF, Atlanta Braves: time spent in LF dents his defensive bonus enough that he fails to pass Murray for 5th; a 149 OPS+ and league-leading 131 runs created
7. Dickie Thon, SS, Houston Astros: a huge season before Thon dives off a cliff; a 127 OPS+ with +19 fielding runs
8. Dave Stieb, P, Toronto Blue Jays: the best AL pitcher for the second year in a row with a 142 ERA+ in 278 innings
9. Dan Quisenberry, RP, Kansas City Royals: a 210 ERA+ in 139 innings for one of the last great "fireman" seasons
10. Mario Soto, P, Cincinnati Reds: the best pitcher in the NL (sorry, John Denny) with a 140 ERA+ in 273 innings
11. Pedro Guerrero, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: still a butcher in the field (minus 12 fielding runs), but a bruiser with the bat (150 OPS+)

12-15. Yikes! I have Carter, Dawson, Denny and Trammell tied with only room for two on the ballot. I'll have to do some deeper digging to sort this out

16. Rick Honeycutt, P, Texas Rangers: a league-leading 165 ERA+ to go with 213 innings
17. Lou Whitaker, 2B, Detroit Tigers: top ten in runs created with 114
18. Rickey Henderson, LF, Oakland Athletics: a 139 OPS+ with significant positive contributions on the bases (+12) and in the field (+10)
19. Jim Rice, LF, Boston Red Sox
20. Darrell Evans, 3B, San Francisco Giants: a couple of '70s stars reappearing on the list, if not the ballot, thanks to a 141 OPS+ and +12 fielding for Rice and a 150 OPS+ at third for Evans
   34. Chris Fluit Posted: June 17, 2013 at 03:34 PM (#4471254)
1983 Prelim Continued

12. Alan Trammell, SS, Detroit Tigers: the 4th shortstop to make the ballot beats out the rest of the quartet due to his all-around game
13. Andre Dawson, CF, Montreal Expos: his knees haven't given out yet; Dawson is still good for a 141 OPS+ and +9 fielding in center

14. John Denny, P, Philadelphia Phillies: I'm a little surprised that Denny misses the ballot but his 242 innings are kind of low even if his 152 ERA+ is impressive
15. Gary Carter, C, Montreal Expos: a phenomenal defensive season (+27) is almost enough to get onto the ballot despite a less-than-phenomenal bat (116 OPS+)
   35. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: June 18, 2013 at 02:42 AM (#4471663)
If you have my WARP file, it includes a spreadsheet of historical replacement levels. The worst 3/8 of MLB SS most definitely did not start improving until the 1990's. Unlike the 1970's, when SS were mediocre across the board, the 1980's were a transitional decade, when some teams began to play a legit bat at SS and others were still throwing out banjo hitters (see Griffin, Alfredo). I'm pretty sure the spread between the best handful and worst handful of MLB starting SS in this decade was the greatest of any position-era in history. How you apportion the credit is up to you, but the value that the Orioles, Brewers, Tigers, Cardinals, and (later on) Reds got from that spot relative to most of their rivals was absolutely enormous.
   36. Ben V-L Posted: June 18, 2013 at 06:23 AM (#4471673)
So he moved Cal to SS, and went looking for another 3B.


Of course, he didn't really find one. A couple of decades and some 8 or 9 managers later, they finally got Melvin Mora.
   37. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2013 at 11:46 AM (#4471879)
Postseason credit NLCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Carlton 2 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0
Schmidt 4 15 5 7 2 0 1 2 2 3 .467 .529 .800 1.329 0 0

Guerrero 4 12 1 3 1 1 0 2 3 3 .250 .438 .500 .938 0 0

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Carlton 2 2 0.66 2 0 0 0 13.2 13 1 5 13 1.317
Denny 1 1 0.00 0 1 0 0 6.0 5 0 3 3 1.333
   38. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2013 at 11:50 AM (#4471887)
Postseason credit ALCS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Ripken 4 15 5 6 2 0 0 1 2 3 .400 .500 .533 1.033 0 0
Murray 4 15 5 4 0 0 1 3 3 3 .267 .389 .467 .856 1 0

Fisk 4 17 0 3 1 0 0 0 1 3 .176 .222 .235 .458 0 0

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
McGregor 1 1 1.35 0 1 0 0 6.2 6 1 3 2 1.350

Dotson 1 1 10.80 0 1 0 0 5.0 6 6 3 3 1.800
   39. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2013 at 11:54 AM (#4471888)
Postseason credit WS

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Ripken 5 18 2 3 0 0 0 1 3 4 .167 .286 .167 .452 0 0
Murray 5 20 2 5 0 0 2 3 1 4 .250 .286 .550 .836 0 0

Carlton 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0
Schmidt 5 20 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 .050 .050 .050 .100 0 0 (but Joe Morgan was terrific)

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
McGregor 2 2 1.06 1 1 0 1 17.0 9 2 2 12 0.647

Carlton 1 1 2.70 0 1 0 0 6.2 5 2 3 7 1.200
Denny 2 2 3.46 1 1 0 0 13.0 12 5 3 9 1.154
   40. DL from MN Posted: June 18, 2013 at 12:03 PM (#4471906)
That's enough to move Denny ahead of Boggs on my ballot and Guerrero ahead of Cruz. Murray gets closer to Murphy but not quite ahead of him. Nobody else gains or loses enough to matter.
   41. OCF Posted: June 30, 2013 at 01:23 AM (#4481138)
Something that should be mentioned about 1983: Tim Raines scored 19.6% of his team's runs, 133 out of 677.

I'm not aware of anyone with a higher percentage of team runs in the 20th century. (Harry Stovey on a bad team topped that, but that was a rather different game.)
   42. lieiam Posted: July 04, 2013 at 10:35 AM (#4484763)
My top... six albums of 1983:
1- The Chameleons- Script Of The Bridge
2- The Fall- Perverted By Language
3- Aztec Camera- High Land, Hard Rain
4- The Wipers- Over The Edge
5- The Go Betweens- Before Hollywood
6- XTC- Mummer

   43. Kiko Sakata Posted: July 04, 2013 at 04:36 PM (#4484963)
My preliminary ballot. I have my own Player won-lost records calculated from Retrosheet play-by-play data. I calculate these records two ways: tied to team records and context-neutral. I look at wins over positional average (WOPA) and replacement level (WORL), include postseason games, give bonuses for catchers and relief pitchers, which produces this set of weighted statistics.

Based on all of that, here's my preliminary ballot. Numbers shown here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Cal Ripken, 25.2 - 19.7, 3.5, 5.5 - best player in MLB
2. Dale Murphy, 24.9 - 17.9, 3.0, 4.9 - best player in NL
3. Robin Yount, 20.5 - 15.3, 3.1, 4.7 - excellent encore to '82 MMP performance
4. Eddie Murray, 22.0 - 14.6, 3.3, 5.0 - best 1B in MLB, I finally get to vote for my all-time favorite player after a couple of appearances just off-ballot.
5. Lou Whitaker, 22.5 - 17.9, 2.8, 4.6 - best 2B in MLB, his best season
6. John Denny, 17.7 - 12.3, 3.4, 4.8 - best P in MLB
7. LaMarr Hoyt, 18.2 - 11.8, 3.4, 4.8 - best P in AL; I agree w/ '83 voters for both MVP and both Cy Young awards
8. Mike Schmidt, 22.3 - 17.5, 1.9, 3.7 - best 3B in MLB
9. Dickie Thon, 22.3 - 17.5, 2.7, 4.5 - best SS in NL
10. Carlton Fisk, 15.8 - 11.9, 2.4, 3.6 - best C in MLB
11. Tim Raines, 25.6 - 20.1, 1.9, 3.9 - best corner OF in MLB
12. Dan Quisenberry, 11.0 - 5.1, 2.7, 3.7 - best RP in MLB
13. Wade Boggs, 21.7 - 18.0, 1.7, 3.5 - best 3B in AL

Honorable mention: Jim Rice (26.0 - 21.6, 1.7, 3.9), Pedro Guerrero (22.6 - 17.0, 2.2, 4.0), Dave Stieb (15.6 - 11.6, 2.2, 3.5)
   44. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: July 10, 2013 at 09:13 AM (#4489651)
ripken had played over 150 games at shortstop in the minors. and I heard earl say in an interview years back that all he did was make up the organization's mind on where ripken should play.

my point being is that it was not like nobody had considered putting ripken at shortstop prior to him reaching the majors.

earl weaver was certainly a great manager. but I don't think the ripken at shortstop was anything more than common sense.
   45. DL from MN Posted: July 10, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4490150)
Music I like from 1983

I think everyone's heard of Thriller so I'll go into other stuff.

Tom Waits - Swordfishtrombones
Minutemen - What Makes a Man Start fIRES? / Buzz or Howl Under the Influence of Heat
New Order - Power Corruption and Lies - plus the terrific non-album singles
Minor Threat - Out of Step
Einsturzende Neubauten - Drawings of Patient OT
REM - Murmur
Violent Femmes - S/T
Bauhaus - Burning From the Inside
The Fall - Perverted by Language
U2 - War
   46. Chris Fluit Posted: July 10, 2013 at 06:41 PM (#4490355)
If 1982 was the year I discovered professional baseball- Brewers vs. Cardinals, Cal Ripken's rookie year, etc.- then 1983 was the year I discovered popular music. These are the first songs I would have heard on the radio, the first videos I would have watched on half-hour after-school video shows (MTV may have existed already but it wasn't yet ubiquitous), the first songs that I would have known as they came out. As such, I have a lot of strong memories and a lot of strong attachments to the music of 1983.

Here are some of the noteworthy, memorable or favorite albums and songs of 1983:

5 albums:
Michael Jackson, Thriller- technically released in 1982 but Billie Jean didn't come out as a single until January of '83
Prince, 1999- another album that's technically from '83 but the big hit for me was Little Red Corvette which came out in March 1983
The Police, Synchronicity- still one of my favorite albums by one of my favorite bands after all these years
Bryan Adams, Cuts Like a Knife- I can still picture the video with the girl getting ready to jump off of the diving board into the empty pool
Cyndi Lauper, She's So Unusual- even boys can have fun to "Girls Just Want to Have Fun"

12 singles, in no particular order:
The Eurythmics, "Sweet Dreams Are Made of This"
Corey Hart, "Sunglasses at Night"
Duran Duran, "Hungry Like the Wolf" (off of the '82 album Rio but it peaked in '83)
Thomas Dolby, "She Blinded Me With Science"
Men Without Hats, "Safety Dance"
David Bowie, "Let's Dance"
Dexys Midnight Runners, "Come On Eileen" (the US peak was in '83)
Paul McCartney & Michael Jackson, "Say Say Say"
Eddy Grant, "Electric Avenue"
Billy Idol, "Rebel Yell"
Culture Club, "Karma Chameleon"
Elvis Costello, "Everyday I Write the Book"

and 3 additional albums with the benefit of hindsight
Tom Waits, Swordfishtrombones- I wouldn't discover Waits for a few years yet but once I did, Swordfishtrombones would quickly become one of my favorite albums
Violent Femmes, Violent Femmes- ditto, their eponymous debut is absolutely perfect
U2, Under a Blood Red Sky- it's not the best-reviewed live album but it was my introduction to U2's earlier songs and it features a great rendition of "Party Girl"

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
BDC
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.6990 seconds
49 querie(s) executed