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Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Most Meritorious Player: 1991 Discussion

Twins beat the Braves in seven games.

Vote for 13 this year.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Cal Ripken Jr.		35.2		11.5
Barry Bonds		32.9		7.9
Ryne Sandberg		33.2		7.0
Barry Larkin		26.4		6.1
Mickey Tettleton	27.0		5.6
Ozzie Smith		25.5		5.0
Ken Griffey Jr.		31.5		7.1
Lou Whitaker		25.9		6.7
Jose Canseco		32.5		5.3
Terry Pendleton		30.7		6.1
Chris Sabo		22.2		5.0
Frank Thomas		33.6		7.0
Rafael Palmeiro		30.5		5.7
Will Clark		29.7		5.2
Matt Williams		23.3		5.5
Ruben Sierra		26.5		5.0
Tony Gwynn		19.7		5.6
John Kruk		25.4		4.7
Craig Biggio		21.2		4.4
Wade Boggs		25.3		6.4
Steve Finley		18.6		5.1
Bobby Bonilla		30.6		3.9
Ron Gant		27.1		1.9
Danny Tartabull		27.1		4.4
Joe Carter		24.0		4.7
Jay Bell		23.0		3.8
Paul Molitor		32.2		5.3
Brett Butler		26.6		5.1
Julio Franco		29.1		6.2
Robby Thompson		23.5		5.1
Willie Randolph		21.6		4.2
Rickey Henderson	26.1		4.6
Edgar Martinez		24.3		6.1
Darryl Strawberry	23.7		3.6
Andy Van Slyke		21.9		3.6
Robin Ventura		22.7		5.3
Devon White		28.6		6.3
Paul O'Neill		17.8		4.9
Fred McGriff		26.9		3.4
Dave Henderson		25.9		5.4
Tony Phillips		23.3		5.2
Jeff Bagwell		23.7		4.8
Shane Mack		20.0		5.0
Ivan Calderon		20.3		3.3
Howard Johnson		26.1		3.4
Wally Joyner		24.1		3.8
Roberto Alomar		26.1		4.5

Pitcher
Roger Clemens		25.6		8.0
Tom Candiotti		20.2		7.1
Tom Glavine		20.8		9.3
Jim Abbott		20.8		7.6
Kevin Tapani		21.2		6.8
Mark Langston		20.9		7.3
Jose Rijo		16.8		5.7
Pete Harnisch		15.6		4.4
Dennis Martinez		19.0		5.8
Nolan Ryan		13.8		5.3
Bret Saberhagen		16.0		5.1
Mike Moore		16.4		4.6
Andy Benes		17.0		4.0
Greg Maddux		17.1		4.1
Tommy Greene		15.5		4.2
David Cone		15.3		4.3
Greg Swindell		13.4		3.8
Chris Bosio		13.7		5.1
Jimmy Key		16.6		4.3
Jack McDowell		18.0		4.3
Jack Morris		17.9		4.4
Scott Erickson		17.6		4.5
Mike Morgan		17.4		4.7
Dwight Gooden		12.1		3.7
Steve Avery		14.0		5.8
John Smoltz		12.2		5.3

Bill Swift		14.0		3.7
Bryan Harvey		18.2		3.4
Todd Frohwirth		11.2		3.2
Mark Eichhorn		10.7		3.0
Mitch Williams		16.8		3.0

 

DL from MN Posted: March 02, 2016 at 02:52 PM | 27 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: March 02, 2016 at 03:05 PM (#5168267)
1991 Prelim

1) Cal Ripken - Best season by anyone since Gooden 85. Terrific glovework
2) Barry Bonds - Another prime Bonds season
3) Ryne Sandberg
4) Roger Clemens - best pitcher
5) Barry Larkin
6) Mickey Tettleton - good hitting for a catcher
7) Ozzie Smith
8) Tom Candiotti - strong PWAA
9) Ken Griffey Jr - only adequate fielding
10) Lou Whitaker - ditto, glove is not great
11) Tom Glavine
12) Jose Canseco - good fielding year
13) Terry Pendleton

14-20) Chris Sabo, Frank Thomas, Rafael Palmeiro, Jim Abbott, Kevin Tapani, Will Clark, Mark Langston
21-25) Jose Rijo, Matt Williams, Pete Harnisch, Ruben Sierra, Craig Biggio
   2. karlmagnus Posted: March 02, 2016 at 04:13 PM (#5168340)
How can Canseco have had a good fielding year and Griffey an "only adequate" one when Candeco's dWaR was -1.5 and Griffey's +1.0?

I don't trust defensive stats, but Canseco as a better fielder than the young Griffey is, shall we say, counter-intuitive.
   3. TDF, trained monkey Posted: March 02, 2016 at 05:25 PM (#5168419)
How can Canseco have had a good fielding year and Griffey an "only adequate" one when Candeco's dWaR was -1.5 and Griffey's +1.0?

I don't trust defensive stats, but Canseco as a better fielder than the young Griffey is, shall we say, counter-intuitive.
I am not a voter.

I have to agree here, and add more: BBRef has Canseco at -7 Rfield, his 2nd lowest total, as a RF, and Jr. as +7 (his best in his young career, but far below his peak) as a CF. Fangraphs agrees exactly: -7 runs for Canseco, +7 for Griffey.

   4. DL from MN Posted: March 02, 2016 at 05:48 PM (#5168441)
The simple answer is I read the wrong column. Canseco had an adequate year, not like some of this terrible years. Dan R has Griffey at +3, Whitaker at +4 and Canseco at +1.
   5. baudib Posted: March 03, 2016 at 01:12 AM (#5168588)
In the real world, Cecil Fielder finished 2nd in the AL MVP voting for the 2nd straight year. There was actually quite a bit of controversy over it, with Fielder himself whining about it. He said something to the effect that, "Last year they said I didn't play for a winner (he lost to Rickey), and this year they give it to a guy whose team won 67 games."

Of course, Fielder wasn't remotely as good as Rickey or Ripken, both of whom are all-time greats having career years. He was the HR and RBI leader for both years, but obviously added almost no other value (90, 78 walks) as he had no defensive value or speed.

Bill James made a case that Devon White was definitely better than Fielder, using a very crude method of comparing their offensive contributions, which were nearly even, and then pointing out that you've then got Devon White in center field and on the bases, vs. Fielder. WAR has it 4.4-4.0 oWAR for Devon, and 6.3 to 3.7 total WAR.
   6. ThickieDon Posted: March 03, 2016 at 11:10 AM (#5168751)
1. Cal Ripken - one of the greatest modern seasons period
2. Barry Bonds - top 10 in offense, baserunning and OF defense
3. Frank Thomas - his 2nd best offensive season (league-adjusted)
4. Roger Clemens - league-leading 271 IP of league-leading 165 ERA+ (2nd most IP of the 90's)
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. - best CF in the game
6. Ryne Sandberg - best 2B in the game
7. Tom Glavine - led NL in ERA+, 2nd in IP
8. Lou Whitaker - his best season overall; .279/.391/.489
9. Terry Pendleton - solid across board; best 3B in the game
10. Devon White - stellar OF defense along with above-average offense and baserunning
11. Barry Larkin - 143 OPS+ and well-above average with glove and on basepaths
12. Julio Franco - incredible offensive season (146 OPS+, league-leading .341 BA) combined with great baserunning (and mediocre IF defense)
13. Mickey Tettleon - best offensive and overall catcher in baseball (not even close)

Considered (#14-25, in random order): Boggs, Canseco, Edgar Martinez, Tartabull, Maddux, Abbott, Candiotti, Palmiero, CHRIS SABO (!), Langston, Robin Ventura
   7. DL from MN Posted: March 03, 2016 at 12:41 PM (#5168879)
I have Ripken's 1991 as more valuable than either his 1983 or 1984 MMP winning seasons.

Schmidt in 1981 scores higher than Ripken 1991. Same with Morgan 1975 and Carlton 1972. Gibson 1968 is a little lower.
   8. ThickieDon Posted: March 03, 2016 at 01:31 PM (#5168952)
Too bad about 1981. Had there been a full season, Schmidt's season could have been the greatest ever, and Bobby Grich might be in the HOF.
   9. ThickieDon Posted: March 03, 2016 at 01:36 PM (#5168961)
I remember being a huge Ripken convert during this season. I was 10 and I kind of missed his '83 & '84 seasons - from '85-90 he was great and I knew he was a slick fielder (in addition to "The Streak"), but this was the first season (and last!) I saw him put up eye-popping offensive numbers and got me thinking about his HOF candidacy.
   10. bjhanke Posted: March 03, 2016 at 08:55 PM (#5169263)
A Devon White note - When Joe Torre was hired to manage the Cardinals, pretty much the first thing he wanted to do was acquire Devon White. At the time, I thought this was absurd. However, Joe was correct in the short term; Devon was about to launch the peak of his career for a few years. I've mentioned this concept before, but just in case someone here has never seen it: There is a strong tendency, when a manager or GM moves from one cub to another, for him to immediately acquire - or try seriously to acquire - some player from his old team who hasn't got the best reputation, but turns out to have been underrated and underused by his old team. I first noticed this when Syd Thrift became GM of the Pirates, and immediately acquired Bobby Bonilla from Thrift's prior club. That club just couldn't deal with Bobby's lack of defense, and so never gave him a position to work toward and claim for his own. When Whitey Herzog came to the Cardinals, he very quickly found a way to liberate Darrell Porter from the Royals. When Tony La Russa came to the Cardinals, he immediately set about acquiring some big ol' first baseman who could really hit homers. Name of McGwire. One thing I noted when Mike Matheny became manager was that he didn't do that. He'd been in the Cardinal organization all the way; he didn't have some discovery from his prior team sitting in his back pocket. I don't know whether this is a big enough thing to influence a hiring decision, but getting someone from another organization does have a respectable probability of picking up a real good player for far less than his value. When Torre failed to get Devon White, he made a VERY serious effort - public in the newspapers - to get the Cards to sign Bonilla, who was available. They didn't do that, either, and so didn't really have a cleanup man for a couple of years. Just a note for you to keep track of when a GM or manager comes from another organization to yours.... - Brock Hanke
   11. Chris Fluit Posted: March 06, 2016 at 09:27 PM (#5170635)
1991 Prelim- NL Only

1. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: leads NL in OPS+ and RC, adds +19 with the glove
2. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd with 114 RC while adding +6 from the keystone
3. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: 143 OPS+ and +3 fielding as a shortstop
4. Tom Glavine, P, Atlanta Braves: tied for 1st in ERA+ with 246 IP for 2nd in the NL
5. Terry Pendleton, 3B, Atlanta Braves: not a great MVP choice but top ten in OPS+ and RC is decent
6. Will Clark, 1B, San Francisco Giants: another quietly impressive season
7. Dennis Martinez, P, Montreal Expos: tied for 1st in ERA+ while top ten in IP with 222
8. Chris Sabo, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: the spectacles!
9. Bobby Bonilla, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 3rd in OPS+ but gives back a lot on defense (-12 fielding)
10. Jose Rijo, P, Cincinnati Reds: the third NL pitcher with a 153 ERA+ but only 204 IP
   12. Chris Fluit Posted: March 06, 2016 at 09:54 PM (#5170640)
1991 Prelim- AL Only

1. Cal Ripken Jr, SS, Baltimore Orioles: an all-time great season
2. Frank Thomas, 1B, Chicago White Sox: leads AL in OPS+ and RC
3. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: laps the field with 165 ERA+ and 271 IP
4. Ken Griffey Jr, CF, Seattle Mariners: top five in OPS+ with +7 fielding in CF
5. Julio Franco, 2B, Texas Rangers: 146 OPS+ from 2B though only -6 fielding
6. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Texas Rangers: 155 OPS+
7. Lou Whitaker, 2B, Detroit Tigers: cracks the top ten in OPS+ while adding +11 fielding
8. Paul Molitor, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
9. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox: doesn't lead in any category but does everything well
10. Tom Candiotti, P, Cleveland/Toronto: 2nd in AL ERA+
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: March 06, 2016 at 10:00 PM (#5170642)
1991 Prelim- Combined

1. Cal Ripken Jr, SS, Baltimore Orioles: an all-time great season, 162 OPS+ and +22 fielding
2. Frank Thomas, 1B, Chicago White Sox: leads AL in OPS+ and RC
3. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: laps the field with 165 ERA+ and 271 IP
4. Barry Bonds, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates: leads NL in OPS+ and RC, adds +19 with the glove
5. Ken Griffey Jr, CF, Seattle Mariners: top five in AL OPS+ with +7 fielding in CF
6. Ryne Sandberg, 2B, Chicago Cubs: tied for 2nd in NL with 114 RC while adding +6 from the keystone
7. Julio Franco, 2B, Texas Rangers: 146 OPS+ from 2B though only -6 fielding
8. Barry Larkin, SS, Cincinnati Reds: 143 OPS+ and +3 fielding as a shortstop
9. Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Texas Rangers: 155 OPS+
10. Lou Whitaker, 2B, Detroit Tigers: cracks the top ten in OPS+ while adding +11 fielding
11. Paul Molitor, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
12. Tom Glavine, P, Atlanta Braves: tied for 1st in ERA+ with 246 IP for 2nd in the NL
13. Wade Boggs, 3B, Boston Red Sox: doesn't lead in any category but does everything well

14. Tom Candiotti, P, Cleveland/Toronto: 2nd in AL ERA+
15. Terry Pendleton, 3B, Atlanta Braves: not a great MVP choice but top ten in OPS+ and RC is decent
16. Mickey Tettleton, C/DH, Detroit Tigers: DH penalty keeps him off ballot
17. Will Clark, 1B, San Francisco Giants: another quietly impressive season
18. Dennis Martinez, P, Montreal Expos: tied for 1st in ERA+ while top ten in IP with 222
19. Kevin Tapani, P, Minnesota Twins
20. Jim Abbott, P, California Angels
   14. EricC Posted: March 10, 2016 at 06:14 PM (#5173167)
1991 prelim.

1. Cal Ripken Jr.
2. Barry Bonds
3. Mickey Tettleton
4. Roger Clemens
5. Ryne Sandberg
6. Tom Glavine
7. Ken Griffey Jr.
8. Frank Thomas
9. Will Clark
10. Jose Canseco
11. Tim Candiotti
12. Barry Larkin
13. Julio Franco
   15. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2016 at 11:53 AM (#5176967)
1991 ALCS
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Shane Mack  5  18  4  6  1  1  0  3  2  4  .333  .381  .500  .881  2  1  1
Kirby Puckett  5  21  4  9  1  0  2  5  1  4  .429  .435  .762  1.197  0  0  0

Joe Carter  5  19  3  5  2  0  1  4  1  5  .263  .286  .526  .812  0  1  0
Devon White  5  22  5  8  1  0  0  0  2  3  .364  .417  .409  .826  3  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Kevin Tapani  2  2  7.84  0  1  0  0  10.1  16  9  9  3  9  1.839

Tom Candiotti  2  2  8.22  0  1  0  0  7.2  17  9  7  2  5  2.478  
Jimmy Key  1  1  3.00  0  0  0  0  6.0  5  2  2  1  1  1.000

   16. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2016 at 12:07 PM (#5176990)
1991 NLCS
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO ▾  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Jay Bell  7  29  2  12  2  0  1  1  0  10  .414  .414  .586  1.000  0  1  1
Barry Bonds  7  27  1  4  1  0  0  0  2  4  .148  .207  .185  .392  3  0  1
Bobby Bonilla  7  23  2  7  2  0  0  1  6  2  .304  .448  .391  .840  0  1  0
Andy Van Slyke  7  25  3  4  2  0  1  2  5  5  .160  .300  .360  .660  1  0  0

Terry Pendleton  7  30  1  5  1  1  0  1  1  3  .167  .194  .267  .460  0  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Steve Avery  2  2  0.00  2  0  0  0  16.1  9  0  0  4  17  0.796  
Tom Glavine  2  2  3.21  0  2  0  0  14.0  12  5  5  6  11  1.286
John Smoltz  2  2  1.76  2  0  0  1  15.1  14  3  3  3  15  1.109
   17. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2016 at 12:44 PM (#5177031)
1991 World Series
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E  
Shane Mack  6  23  0  3  1  0  0  1  0  7  .130  .130  .174  .304  0  1  0
Kirby Puckett  7  24  4  6  0  1  2  4  5  7  .250  .367  .583  .950  1  0  0

Terry Pendleton  7  30  6  11  3  0  2  3  3  1  .367  .424  .667  1.091  0  0  2

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Kevin Tapani  2  2  4.50  1  1  0  0  12.0  13  6  6  2  7  1.250

Steve Avery  2  2  3.46  0  0  0  0  13.0  10  6  5  1  8  0.846
Tom Glavine  2  2  2.70  1  1  0  1  13.1  8  6  4  7  8  1.125
John Smoltz  2  2  1.26  0  0  0  0  14.1  13  2  2  1  11  0.977  
   18. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2016 at 12:50 PM (#5177045)
Glavine moves up a bunch, Pendleton moves up some. Nobody else really makes an impact due to postseason stats. Puckett was fantastic but the rest of his season wasn't that great.
   19. ThickieDon Posted: March 17, 2016 at 01:48 PM (#5177108)
Updates, after discussion and post-season adjustments:

1. Cal Ripken - one of the greatest modern seasons period
2. Barry Bonds - top 10 in offense, baserunning and OF defense
3. Frank Thomas - his 2nd best offensive season (league-adjusted)
4. Roger Clemens - league-leading 271 IP of league-leading 165 ERA+ (2nd most IP of the 90's)
5. Ken Griffey, Jr. - best CF in the game
6. Tom Glavine - led NL in ERA+, 2nd in IP (+ for post-season)
7. Terry Pendleton - solid across board; best 3B in the game (+ for WS)
8. Ryne Sandberg - best 2B in the game
9. Lou Whitaker - his best season overall; .279/.391/.489
10. Devon White - stellar OF defense along with above-average offense and baserunning
11. Barry Larkin - 143 OPS+ and well-above average with glove and on basepaths
12. Julio Franco - incredible offensive season (146 OPS+, league-leading .341 BA) combined with great baserunning (and mediocre IF defense)
13. Mickey Tettleon - best offensive and overall catcher in baseball (not even close)

Considered (#14-25, in random order): Wade Boggs, Jose Canseco, Edgar Martinez, Greg Maddux, Jim Abbott, Tom Candiotti, Rafael Palmiero, CHRIS SABO (!), Mark Langston, Robin Ventura, Tapani

Others (#26-50): Bryan Harvey (crazy relief season - check out his numbers!), Duane Ward (his, too!), Dennis Martinez, Bobby Bonilla, Steve Avery, John Smoltz, Tony Phillips, Dave Henderson, Brett Butler, Jack Morris, Kirby Puckett, Tony Gwynn, Steve Finley, Ozzie Smith, Matt Williams, Will Clark, Paul Molitor, Danny Tartabull, Robby Thompson, Jose Rijo, Nolan Ryan, Chris Bosio, Jeff Bagwell, Paul O'Neill
   20. DL from MN Posted: March 17, 2016 at 04:03 PM (#5177254)
It is mentally conflicting that Frank Thomas is the best hitter in baseball and I can't fit him in my top 13. The DH penalty is pretty huge.
   21. Chris Fluit Posted: March 17, 2016 at 10:38 PM (#5177483)
It is mentally conflicting that Frank Thomas is the best hitter in baseball and I can't fit him in my top 13. The DH penalty is pretty huge.

If that's the case then the DH penalty is too big. Most WAR systems essentially double the DH penalty by docking players in both batting runs and position runs. If Frank Thomas can't make your ballot this season, that's a clear sign that you're overdoing it.
   22. ThickieDon Posted: March 18, 2016 at 10:06 AM (#5177662)
Thomas did play first base fairly often in 1991 (56 games). He wasn't really a full time DH until the later 90's, and even then he played 1st occasionally.

He was always useless out there, and then his last few seasons he was strictly a DH, but it's true that in 1991 he did play 1st quite a bit.
   23. ThickieDon Posted: March 18, 2016 at 10:13 AM (#5177669)
And Thomas was by far the best offensive player that season.

Tartabull was close but he played in almost 30 less games.

As always, Bonds was excellent, but it was kind of a "down" year overall (for him) - .292/.410/.514

And Ripken was amazing and actually beat Thomas in traditional stats, but Thomas walked nearly 3 times as often.
   24. DL from MN Posted: March 21, 2016 at 10:33 AM (#5178971)
I'll compare Thomas versus Canseco and Will Clark in 1991

Player BWAA1 BRWAA1 FWAA1 Rep1 WARP1
Canseco 4.4 0.6 0.1 -1.5 6.6
Thomas 6.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 6.6
WClark 5 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 5.5


Thomas has the most batting wins in baseball above average. Next closest is Bonds with 5.7. However, his baserunning is below average, his Fielding costs him half a win, his positional replacement value is much less than Canseco but similar to Will Clark.

Now I add in Dan R's standard deviations league adjustment which is .948 for the AL and .973 for the NL.

Player BWAA2 BRWAA2 FWAA2 Rep2 WARP2 WAPA2
Canseco 4.2 0.5 0.1 -1.4 6.2 3.5
Thomas 6.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 6.2 N/A
WClark 4.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 5.3 3.3


Dan R didn't give wins vs positional average for DH. I'll try to figure out "average" DH in 1991. Looking over DH who are in the cluster of first basemen with 0 WAPA I see Kevin Maas, Sam Horn, Brian Downing and Chili Davis. I'm going to put positional average between Downing (2.2 WARP) and Davis (2.6 WARP). Neither of them had the playing time of Thomas so I'm going to adjust for that up to 2.7 WARP when you consider Thomas' playing time. That gives him a WAPA2 of 3.5, or equivalent to Canseco.

I have Canseco and Thomas as essentially tied in 1991.
   25. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: March 30, 2016 at 11:53 AM (#5184655)
No postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender:
1. Ripken
2. Bonds
3. Glavine
4. Thomas
5. Griffey
6. Clemens
7. Pendleton
8. Sandberg
9. Abbott
10.Langston
11.Tettleton
12.Whitaker
13.J Franco
   26. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2016 at 07:40 PM (#5186778)
I voted in a few of these in the 1970's and figured I'd give it another go. I have my own statistics: Player won-lost records. I calculate them two ways: pWins tie to team wins, eWins are context-neutral. Here's an article I wrote about the 1991 season with various leaderboards. Mixing pWins and eWins vs. average (WOPA) and replacement (WORL), adding in some postseason numbers, and making some positional adjustments produces this top 25.

Which produces this top 13:

1. Ripken
2. Bonds
3. Sandberg
4. Clemens
5. Pendleton
6. Glavine
7. Thomas
8. Whitaker
9. - 12. are essentially in a tie - Tettleton, Canseco, Larkin, Griffey - that's the order they fall out in my last link above; I might slide Larkin to the top of the grouping
13. Saberhagen

Skimming earlier comments, Saberhagen looks like my only idiosyncratic choice. He's kind of light on IP and while his numbers are good, I'm not necessarily seeing what gets him this high in my system (6th in the AL in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 9th in ERA+ per BB-Ref). But nobody else is jumping out at me as a glaring omission by my system, either.
   27. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 02, 2016 at 09:37 PM (#5186803)
Skimming earlier comments, Saberhagen looks like my only idiosyncratic choice. He's kind of light on IP and while his numbers are good, I'm not necessarily seeing what gets him this high in my system (6th in the AL in FIP, 3rd in WHIP, 9th in ERA+ per BB-Ref). But nobody else is jumping out at me as a glaring omission by my system, either.


I tried to dig a little bit into why my system likes Saberhagen so much. Player won-lost records are calculated game by game (really, play by play) and I think that Saberhagen's run distribution across games was exceptional in 1991. Looking at Saberhagen's Game Logs, for example, I count 18 starts where Saberhagen pitched at least 7 innings and allowed 2 or fewer runs. By comparison, Jim Abbott, who pitched more innings at a lower season ERA and is mentioned by several people in this thread pitched 7 or more innings w/ 2 or fewer runs allowed only 15 times (in 6 more starts than Saberhagen made). Those are arbitrary cutoffs (Abbott had a game where he allowed 1 R in 6.2 IP and one where he allowed 3 R in 8 IP), but I think that's basically what my system sees in Saberhagen vis-a-vis Abbott (and others). I may still push Abbott ahead of Saberhagen for my final ballot. I'll probably mull it over until at least Monday.

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