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Wednesday, June 08, 2016

Most Meritorious Player: 1994 Discussion

The World Series and much of the season was cancelled. Vote for 14 this year.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Jeff Bagwell		32.3		8.2
Kenny Lofton		23.2		7.2
Barry Bonds		25.5		6.2
Frank Thomas		27.6		6.3
Albert Belle		25.8		5.7
Ken Griffey Jr		21.7		6.9
Paul O'Neill		21.2		4.3
Moises Alou		21.8		5.1
Tony Gwynn		18.5		4.2
Barry Larkin		18.2		3.9
Matt Williams		19.1		4.7
Kevin Mitchell		19.0		3.7
Larry Walker		20.1		4.7
Craig Biggio		25.6		4.6
John Valentin		15.0		4.3
Fred McGriff		22.6		4.5
Cal Ripken Jr		16.1		4.0
Tony Phillips		17.8		4.7
Jay Bell		17.6		3.4
Wade Boggs		17.3		4.5
Mike Piazza		18.3		3.6
Ken Caminiti		16.0		3.8
Brett Butler		21.4		3.4
Sammy Sosa		14.9		3.8
Marquis Grissom		18.9		5.1
Will Clark		17.5		3.6
Dave Justice		18.5		3.7
Wil Cordero		18.0		3.1
Rafael Palmeiro		17.9		4.0
Jeff Kent		16.1		2.7
Chuck Knoblauch		17.9		4.0
Tim Salmon		15.2		2.6
Rickey Henderson	11.8		3.5
Mike Stanley		14.1		3.5
Lou Whitaker		11.3		2.5
Jay Buhner		13.8		2.8
Shane Mack		14.5		3.9
Chris Hoiles		13.2		2.8
Darren Daulton		12.3		2.5
Ivan Rodriguez		15.2		3.1
Terry Steinbach		14.3		3.1

Pitcher
Greg Maddux		26.4		8.7
Randy Johnson		14.9		5.5
Roger Clemens		16.6		6.1
David Cone		19.6		6.8
Bret Saberhagen		15.5		5.7
Mike Mussina		18.4		5.4
Pat Hentgen		15.4		5.3
Dennis Martinez		14.2		4.6
Doug Drabek		12.7		4.0
Marvin Freeman		13.4		4.6
Danny Jackson		13.7		4.7
Butch Henry		11.2		3.8
Charles Nagy		13.1		4.1
Kevin Appier		13.0		4.5
Ricky Bones		13.8		4.0
Jimmy Key		15.3		4.4
Zane Smith		13.5		3.1
Chuck Finley		13.7		3.4
Jack McDowell		12.2		3.9
Steve Trachsel		10.8		3.4
Aaron Sele		11.0		3.6

Mark Eichhorn		9.7		2.6
Tony Castillo		8.3		2.5
Trevor Hoffman		10.4		2.4
Doug Jones		10.3		2.4
Eric Plunk		8.7		2.3

 

DL from MN Posted: June 08, 2016 at 04:54 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: June 08, 2016 at 05:03 PM (#5239360)
1994 Prelim

1) Greg Maddux
2) Jeff Bagwell - and those should be the only two who get first place votes
3) Barry Bonds
4) Kenny Lofton
5) Frank Thomas
6) Albert Belle
7) Ken Griffey Jr
8) Randy Johnson
9) Roger Clemens
10) David Cone
11) Paul O'Neill
12) Moises Alou
13) Matt Williams
14) Tony Gwynn

15-21) Mike Mussina, Kevin Mitchell, Barry Larkin, Bret Saberhagen, Larry Walker, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza
   2. Chris Fluit Posted: June 09, 2016 at 12:04 AM (#5239665)
Should be an interesting battle between Bagwell and Maddux for the top spot. At first blush, they're clearly the best position player and best pitcher for the season.

However, the AL looks wide open with Griffey, Lofton, Thomas, Clemens, Cone and Johnson all having a case depending on how you weight offense vs. defense, position player vs. pitcher, ERA vs. FIP and so on.
   3. bjhanke Posted: June 09, 2016 at 09:36 AM (#5239768)
I have a whole theory about pitcher workload that involves Greg Maddux in this year and 1995, the two shortened seasons. They are the only full seasons where Maddux has an ERA under 2.00, and they are both well under that. They are also the only two years between 1988 and 2001 where he did not pitch as many as 210 innings. And they are the two years where he has his highest ERA+, and the margin is monstrous. His highest ERA+ outside of 94 and 95 is 187. Those two years are 260 and 271. These facts look correlated to me. Lower workload; much higher performance. I've posted this theory before, and someone objected that Maddux could not have known that the seasons were going to be short. Well, I'm not so sure about that. It's not as though there had been no discussion of work stoppage before it happened. It was in the wind the entirety of both seasons. And, of course, 1995 started late. Maddux probably WAS aware that those years were going to be interrupted. - Brock Hanke
   4. ThickieDon Posted: June 09, 2016 at 01:23 PM (#5240051)
Preliminary, by league

NL
1. Greg Maddux
2. Jeff Bagwell
3. Barry Bonds
4. Brett Saberhagen

5. Moises Alou
6. Larry Walker
7. Fred McGriff
8. Craig Biggio
9. Kevin Mitchell
10. Marquis Grissom

AL

1. Frank Thomas
2. Kenny Lofton
3. Ken Griffey, Jr.
4. Albert Belle
5. Randy Johnson

6. Tony Phillips
7. Rafael Palmiero
8. Roger Clemens
9. Cal Ripken
10. Wade Boggs


Just have to whittle this down to 14. Looking like Alou, Walker, McGriff, Phillips, and Biggio unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Happy to get Tony Phillips on a ballot!
   5. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: June 09, 2016 at 10:10 PM (#5240573)
1994 prelim

1. Greg Maddux
2. Jeff Bagwell - NL MMPosition Player. Because of his injury, I wonder how many of the next players would've passed him had the season not been cancelled.
3. Frank Thomas - AL MMP
4. Barry Bonds
5. Albert Belle
6. Kenny Lofton
7. Ken Griffey Jr.
8. David Cone - AL MMPitcher.
9. Roger Clemens
10. Bret Saberhagen
11. Randy Johnson
12. Paul O'Neill
13. Craig Biggio
14. Moises Alou
   6. DL from MN Posted: June 10, 2016 at 01:08 PM (#5240896)
DanR has almost no separation between Clemens and Johnson. Same DERA numbers. I'm inclined to break the tie for Johnson because Clemens has higher FIP and one fewer inning.
   7. DL from MN Posted: June 10, 2016 at 01:29 PM (#5240915)
I think NL expansion has to be a factor in Maddux's dominance. DanR has a league adjustment for the NL of .928 and the AL of .963 in 1994.
   8. Chris Fluit Posted: June 11, 2016 at 10:31 AM (#5241460)
1994 Prelim Ballot

1. Greg Maddux, P, Atlanta Braves: absolutely dominant; 271 ERA+ is 92 better than second place in the NL
2. Jeff Bagwell, 1B, Houston Astros: leads the senior circuit in OPS+ and RC (213 and 137)
3. Frank Thomas, 1B, Chicago White Sox: leads the junior circuit in OPS+ and RC (212 and 145) but doesn't have as good a glove as Bagwell (+5 for Jeff, -8 for Thomas)
4. Albert Belle, LF, Cleveland Indians: 194 OPS+ and 131 RC, though -10 fielding
5. Ken Griffey Jr., CF, Seattle Mariners: 171 OPS+ to go with +11 fielding in centerfield
6. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: only a 183 OPS+ and +5 fielding (Griffey is ahead due to position)
7. Kenny Lofton, CF, Cleveland Indians: 145 OPS+, +9 baserunning and +13 fielding for the most well-rounded player in the majors this season
8. Kevin Mitchell, LF, Cincinnati Reds: 185 OPS+ is second in the NL
9. Paul O'Neill, RF, New York Yankees: the great seasons by outfielders keep coming
10. Fred McGriff, 1B, Atlanta Braves: top five in NL OPS+ and RC, with +5 fielding
11. Tony Gwynn, RF, San Diego Padres
12. Roger Clemens, P, Boston Red Sox: best pitcher in the AL with 176 ERA+
13. Craig Biggio, 2B, Houston Astros: the best of the "glove" positions with a 138 OPS+
14. David Cone, P, Kansas City Royals

15. Moises Alou, LF/RF, Montreal Expos
16. Mike Mussina, P, Baltimore Orioles
17. Matt Williams, 3B, San Francisco Giants
18. Larry Walker, RF/1B, Montreal Expos
19. Wade Boggs, 3B, New York Yankees
20. Bret Saberhagen, P, New York Mets: a pretty big gap from Maddux at 1 to Saberhagen at 20
   9. eric Posted: June 16, 2016 at 11:37 PM (#5245513)
I have a whole theory about pitcher workload that involves Greg Maddux in this year and 1995, the two shortened seasons. They are the only full seasons where Maddux has an ERA under 2.00, and they are both well under that. They are also the only two years between 1988 and 2001 where he did not pitch as many as 210 innings. And they are the two years where he has his highest ERA+, and the margin is monstrous. His highest ERA+ outside of 94 and 95 is 187. Those two years are 260 and 271. These facts look correlated to me. Lower workload; much higher performance. I've posted this theory before, and someone objected that Maddux could not have known that the seasons were going to be short. Well, I'm not so sure about that. It's not as though there had been no discussion of work stoppage before it happened. It was in the wind the entirety of both seasons. And, of course, 1995 started late. Maddux probably WAS aware that those years were going to be interrupted. - Brock Hanke


It's a statistical phenomenon. When sample sizes get smaller, the variance is higher. Look at one game. You have guys with 0.00 ERAs and others with 13.50 ERAs. It should really come as no shock that extreme rate stats tend to cluster in shortened seasons (Gwynn's .394 in 1994, for example). Brett batted .390 in 1980...but in only 117 games.

If you play the game of truncating completed seasons, I think you'd see the same effect. As an example: look at Roger Clemens' 1997 season after his team's 117th game:

25GS 195.1IP 215Ks 1.66ERA 18-4 record

That would fit right in with what Maddux did in 1994. The fact that he went on to pitch another 68.2 innings at a 3.15 ERA shouldn't be held against him. And it isn't--WAR, for example, likes Clemens's '97 campaign better than Maddux's '94. But in the same token, people shouldn't just linearize Maddux's '94 out to a full season and proclaim his season better than it was. Anything could have happened, and with the likely result that his numbers would have fallen back to earth a little bit.
   10. eric Posted: June 16, 2016 at 11:47 PM (#5245536)
Just for more fun, since I was already at his page: here's Clemens's 1988 season after his 24th start:

24GS
11CG
7SHO
193IP
232K
2.24ERA

That's after only 102 team games. The overuse caught up with him, though (over 8IP/start as a power pitcher is brutal for anyone not named Nolan Ryan). He finished out:

71IP
59K
4.82ERA

And followed up that campaign with his worst full season from 1986 to 1998.

I'm sure there are many other examples of completed seasons that would look a lot better in 2/3 the time. Heck, George Brett on Sept 19, 1980, after his 104th personal game: .400.
   11. DL from MN Posted: June 28, 2016 at 05:50 PM (#5254287)
Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1968 Gibson 19.5
1902 Waddell 19.1
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
1971 Seaver 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
1966 Marichal 17.2
1966 Koufax 17.1
1993 Rijo 17.0
   12. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 06, 2016 at 06:03 PM (#5259934)
1985 Gooden 21.5
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6


Maddux was indeed good, but the shortened schedule helped him here. A 162-game schedule would have reduced his score a bit.
   13. Yardape Posted: July 11, 2016 at 03:20 PM (#5263009)
My prelim, that I already posted in the ballot thread by mistake:

1. Greg Maddux. Best ML pitcher. Terrific season, edges Bagwell for the top spot.
2. Jeff Bagwell. Best hitter in baseball.
3. Kenny Lofton. This is the poster season for Lofton HoM supporters. AL MMP
4. Ken Griffey, Jr.
[Suzuki Ichiro. His breakout season in Japan. An amazing year.]
5. David Cone. Best AL pitcher.
6. Frank Thomas. I'm actually a bit surprised, I thought he would have been right up with Bagwell and the AL MMP, but Lofton and Griffey had great seasons at a tougher position.
7. Barry Bonds
8. Rogers Clemens
9. Bret Saberhagen
10. Albert Belle
11. Randy Johnson
12. Mike Mussina
13. Pat Hentgen
14. Moises Alou. Tops among a great Montreal outfield that year.

I have a pretty big gap between Alou and Matt Williams for the next spot, although if Japanese players were eligible Etoh Akira might have been competition.
   14. bbmck Posted: July 11, 2016 at 05:06 PM (#5263070)
Inspired by [10]

200+ K as a Starter in a team's first 100 games since 1961:

Angels: 1977 Nolan 254, 1973 Nolan 232, 1974 Nolan 210
Athletics: 1971 Blue 214
Diamondbacks: 1999 Unit 240, 2000 Unit 228, 2001 Unit 223, 2002 Schilling 205
Dodgers: 1965 Koufax 222, 1962 Koufax 207, 1966 Koufax 201
Indians: 1970 McDowell 210

Mariners: 1995 Unit 206
Mets: 1970 Seaver 200
Phillies: 1972 Carlton 213
Red Sox: 1988 Clemens 219

First 100 Games IP/K/ERA - Rest of Season IP/K/ERA

1962 Koufax 175.2/209/2.15 - 8.2/7/10.38
1965 Koufax 196/222/2.02 - 139.2/160/2.06
1966 Koufax 202.1/201/1.65 - 120.2/116/1.86
1970 Seaver 198.1/201/2.41 - 92.1/82/3.70
1970 McDowell 203/210/2.62 - 102/94/3.53

1971 Blue 210.1/214/1.37 - 101.2/87/2.74
1972 Carlton 214.1/213/2.27 - 132/97/1.50
1973 Nolan 205.2/236/2.93 - 120.1/147/2.77
1974 Nolan 200.1/210/3.41 - 132.1/157/2.11
1977 Nolan 216.2/254/2.66 - 82.1/87/3.06

1988 Clemens 184/219/2.25 - 80/72/4.50
1995 Unit 146.2/206/2.88 - 67.2/88/1.60
1999 Unit 176.2/240/2.65 - 95/124/2.18
2000 Unit 166.2/228/2.16 - 82/119/3.62
2001 Unit 154/239/2.57 - 95.2/133/2.35
2002 Schilling 161.2/205/2.95 - 97.2/111/3.69

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