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Thursday, July 07, 2016

Most Meritorious Player: 1995 Discussion

The World Series returns and the Braves defeat the Indians. Vote for 14 this year.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Barry Bonds		34.1		7.5
Mike Piazza		26.6		6.2
Tim Salmon		28.9		6.6
John Valentin		26.8		8.3
Jim Thome		26.4		5.9
Barry Larkin		28.0		5.9
Mark McGwire		22.9		5.5
Craig Biggio		30.0		6.3
Frank Thomas		27.7		5.3
Albert Belle		33.2		6.9
Edgar Martinez		31.1		7.0
Reggie Sanders		26.1		6.6
Jim Edmonds		21.9		5.6
Matt Williams		19.6		4.6
Chuck Knoblauch		25.8		6.7
Raul Mondesi		21.6		4.8
Robin Ventura		18.8		4.7
Rafael Palmeiro		22.9		5.5
Bernie Williams		25.9		6.4
Jeff Bagwell		21.1		4.8
Eric Karros		23.9		3.8
Ron Gant		19.5		3.3
Mark Grace		23.4		5.0
Tino Martinez		21.2		4.5
Sammy Sosa		20.9		5.3
Brian Jordan		17.8		5.1
Wade Boggs		19.3		4.2
Ken Caminiti		25.1		3.2
Manny Ramirez		23.2		2.9
Larry Walker		20.2		4.7		
Cal Ripken Jr		15.5		3.9
Mo Vaughn		22.6		4.3
Tim Naehring		16.9		4.2
Tony Phillips		20.0		4.3
Kenny Lofton		18.8		4.1
Ivan Rodriguez		19.5		3.5
Chris Hoiles		13.9		3.3


Pitcher
Greg Maddux		29.9		9.6
Randy Johnson		22.1		8.7
David Cone		18.9		7.0
Tim Wakefield		19.0		5.0
Mike Mussina		20.3		6.1
Kenny Rogers		20.8		5.8
Tom Glavine		18.8		5.4
Dennis Martinez		17.0		5.7
Al Leiter		13.7		5.7
John Smoltz		16.9		4.0
David Wells		17.5		5.2
Jaime Navarro		15.5		4.2
Andy Ashby		14.3		5.0
Kevin Appier		16.9		4.6
Mark Gubicza		16.9		4.5
Denny Neagle		16.4		4.6
Hideo Nomo		17.1		4.2
Kevin Brown		13.4		4.3
Pete Schourek		15.9		4.4
Pedro Martinez		14.6		4.1
Kevin Ritz		12.8		4.5

Steve Reed		11.7		4.2
Jose Mesa		17.4		4.0
Curt Leskanic		13.7		3.8
Troy Percival		12.3		3.2

 

DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2016 at 03:53 PM | 31 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: July 07, 2016 at 05:13 PM (#5260756)
1995 Prelim

1) Greg Maddux - not quite as good as 1994 but still really good
2) Randy Johnson
3) Mike Piazza - not often a catcher takes my top position player spot
4) Barry Bonds - best bat
5) Tim Salmon - 2nd best bat
6) John Valentin
7) Jim Thome - 3B this season
8) Barry Larkin
9) Mark McGwire
10) Craig Biggio
11) Frank Thomas
12) Albert Belle
13) Edgar Martinez
14) David Cone

15-20) Reggie Sanders, Tim Wakefield, Mike Mussina, Kenny Rogers, Jim Edmonds, Tom Glavine
   2. OCF Posted: July 09, 2016 at 06:35 PM (#5262135)
It's time for me to drag up a document I wrote in 1995, intended for myself and a handful of friends. In this document I created 25-man post-season all-star rosters for each league, and I had MVP and CY votes for each league.

There are a number of shortcomings and peculiarities to this. Among the shortcomings: bb-ref didn't exists. My basic data source was USA Today, and I did some processing myself. I made no systematic use of defensive statistics and only barely any use of any raw defensive statistics at all; I had to rely on reputation. While I made crude estimates of park effects for some extreme parks (including my son estimating that Mike Piazza would have batted .400 with 60 HR in Coors), I didn't have park factors for all parks. Among the peculiarities: I named a DH for each league. I arranged the starting lineup in a batting order. I didn't hesitate to move players to new positions, if the talent pointed me in that direction and I though they could handle the new position. The 25-man roster had too many position players (15) and not enough pitchers (10). The 15 position players weren't necessarily the best 15 in the league; there had to be available substitutes at C, SS, and CF (although in a few cases the reserve SS or CF were already in the lineup). I also embraced particular bench roles, like PH for certain situations. I only named 1 or 2 actual relief pitchers; the rest of the bullpen was the starters ranked 6-8 or so.

Actually, in 1995, it wasn't even a 25-man roster, I was a few short, especially among pitchers.

This isn't in the form of a valid MMP ballot. I will eventually mash it together into that form, and I do intend to participate.

To start with, the NL team, starting with the starting lineup and batting order. (I may be a little queasy about a few of these choices, but it is what I wrote in 1995).

1. Craig Biggio, 2B
2. Tony Gwynn, RF
3. Mike Piazza, C
4. Barry Bonds, CF (yes, I know - but in 1995 he could have handled it)
5. Reggie Sanders, LF
6. Dante Bichette, DH
7. Barry Larkin, SS
8. Eric Karros, 1B
9. Ken Caminiti, 3B

Reserves:

Mark Grace, 1B
Matt Williams, 3B
Walt Weiss, SS
Larry Walker, RF
Javier Lopez, C

Rotation:

#1: Greg Maddux
#2: Hideo Nomo
#3: Tom Glavine
#4: Joey Hamilton
#5: Pete Schourek

Closer: Mark Wohlers
RP: Todd Worrell.

I did put into my comments that if you wouldn't let me put Bonds into CF, I would have put Ray Lankford there, moved Sanders to DH, and dropped Bichette.

I also said that Ismail Valdes was a candidate for the rotation and Tom Henke a candidate for the bullpen.
   3. OCF Posted: July 09, 2016 at 06:40 PM (#5262138)
Next, the AL lineup:

1. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B
2. Jim Thome, 3B
3. Albert Belle, LF
4. Frank Thomas, 1B
5. Edgar Martinez, DH
6. Tim Salmon, RF
7. John Valentin, SS
8. Ivan Rodriguez, C
9. Bernie Williams, CF

Reserves:

Rafael Palmiero, 1B
Mo Vaugh, 1B
Mark McGwire, 1B
Gary DiSarcina, SS
Mike Stanely, C
Jim Edmonds, CF

Rotation:

#1: Randy Johnson
#2: Mike Mussina
#3: Tim Wakefield
#4: Dennis Martinez
#5: David Cone

Closer: Jose Mesa
RP: John Wetteland

As a direct quote: "Other players worth considering would be both Roberto Alomar and Carlos Baerga at 2B, Wade Boggs at 3B, Tino Martinez at 1B, Chris Hoiles at C, or Manny Ramirez or Kirby Puckett in RF. Another possible starting pitcher was Kenny Rogers."
   4. OCF Posted: July 09, 2016 at 06:50 PM (#5262145)
Then the award votes. I said, "In both leagues, my Cy Young votes would have been my starting rotations, except that in the AL I would have put Mesa 4th behind Johnson, Mussina, and Wakefield."

NL MVP:

1. Maddux
2. Piazza
3. Bonds
4. Larkin
5. Biggio

I wrote (this was after the awards were announced), "I was surprised by the choice of Larkin, but not offended - it does make sense to me."

AL MVP:

1. E. Martinez
2. Belle
3. R. Johnson
4. Salmon
5. Valentin

"I do regard the choice of Mo Vaughn as a mistake, although not as large a mistake as the selection of Andre Dawson in 1987. As a first baseman, Vaughn must be evaluated as a hitter. Among 1B, LF, RF, and DH’s around the league, there were 4 players who were clearly better hitters than Vaughn: E. Martinez, Belle, Thomas, and Salmon. In addition, Palmiero, T. Martinez and Ramirez were all comparable as hitters and McGwire (and possibly also Chili Davis) was better on a percentage basis although in less playing time."

One further comment I made was that I would put Greg Maddux ahead of Randy Johnson, although each were totally obvious CYA winners.

Criticize away - but understand you're time-traveling to speak to the 1995 version of me.
   5. OCF Posted: July 10, 2016 at 11:45 PM (#5262596)
Dante Bichette. I’ve got to find something to say about Dante Bichette.

I spent some ink in my memo arguing against Bichette. Part of the reason for my qualified thumbs-up for Larkin as MVP was relief that it wasn’t Bichette - and yet there I have Bichette in the starting NL all-star lineup (albeit as a DH, which is an odd concept for an NL team). With the benefit of 20+ years of sabermetric hindsight, when DL from MN put together the list in the header of this thread, he didn’t even bother to mention Bichette at all. (For the record, he had a BBR WAR of 1.1 for the season, sunk to that level by a disastrous -18 Rfield as a corner OF.)

Why do we have to have a conversation about Bichette? Because his triple crown stats were .340/40/128, and in a shortened (~145 game) season. He was 3rd in the league in BA and led the league in both HR and RBI (and also in SLG and total bases). He was 4th in the league in runs scored. And for all of that, he finished 2nd behind Larkin in the MVP vote - ahead of Maddux, ahead of Piazza, more than 10 times as many vote points as Bonds.

Here’s what I actually said:

“Colorado players pose an extreme problem in evaluation because of the huge effect of their home ballpark. The estimate we’re going with is that Rockies runs created (or ERA’s) should be divided by about 1.23. This would leave Bichette at about 104 RC, and would drop his RC/game well behind Gwynn, Sanders, or even Ron Gant. This factor applied to the team statistics would say that Colorado was not the best offensive team in the league (which is what taking the stats at face value would say) but a team in the lower middle of the pack near LA and Atlanta. Applied the the pitching would drop their ERA from a league worst 4.97 to a 4th-best 4.04. Better-than-average pitching, near-average hitting - that’s who Colroado was. And Bichette did not deserve to be taken seriously as an MVP candidate.”

I’ll note that bb-ref puts the park factor at 128, not the 123 I seem to have been using. And in retrospect, I have my doubts about applying that directly to Runs Created. I’m also pretty sure I was assuming Bichette was an average defensive outfielder, not the nightmare that’s in the defensive stats on bb-ref.

So what’s the deal? If you want to talk about sabermetric player evaluations, 1995 wasn’t exactly the dark ages. Bill James had had time to sell a whole bunch of Baseball Abstracts over a number of years, retire from doing that, come back with a different kind of annual book, and then retire from that as well. Palmer and Thorn had sold plenty of books. On Base Percentage was available in some places, notably USA Today. The wave of loud sabermetric criticism of the 1987 MVP votes was 8 years in the past. But for all that, way too many people - too many writers - just couldn’t get past the triple crown stats. Even I couldn’t get past them and I was trying for a sabermetric perspective.

   6. DL from MN Posted: July 11, 2016 at 11:40 AM (#5262797)
Thanks for that perspective
   7. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 12, 2016 at 08:01 AM (#5263314)
1995 MMP Prelim:

1) Barry Bonds
2) Greg Maddux
3) Edgar Martinez
4) Barry Larkin
5) Craig Biggio
6) Mike Piazza
7) Tim Salmon
8) Frank Thomas
9) Mark McGwire
10) Chuck Knoblauch
11) John Valentin
12) Albert Belle
13) Reggie Sanders
14) Randy Johnson

   8. OCF Posted: July 12, 2016 at 08:18 PM (#5263872)
A prelim, preserving all of my 1995 orders and not being all that much influenced by more modern lines of evidence. I think I was rather more impressed at the time by the top NL people, and the spliced list will have a pronounced NL lean.

1. Greg Maddux
2. Mike Piazza
3. Barry Bonds
4. Edgar Martinez
5. Barry Larkin
6. Craig Biggio
7. Albert Belle
8. Randy Johnson
9. Tim Salmon
10. John Valentin
11. Jim Thome
12. Mike Mussina
13. Reggie Sanders
14. Chuck Knoblauch
   9. karlmagnus Posted: July 12, 2016 at 08:25 PM (#5263889)
1995 was the year I watched more baseball than any other. Just returned to the U.S. with no money and it was a respite from job-hunting.

Therefore:
1) Tim Wakefield
2) John Valentin

Don't take this seriously; it's just a tribute to two great years!
   10. ThickieDon Posted: July 14, 2016 at 10:58 AM (#5264895)
1. Greg Maddux, P - really had a hard time deciding between Mad Dog and Big Unit; in the end, Maddux's 10 CGs and historic WHIP and WPA numbers gave him the edge
2. Randy Johnson, P - one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time
3. John Valentin, SS - Ripken-caliber defensive numbers are consistent early in his career; he also nearly triple-slashed .300/.400/.500 as a SS (not unheard of in the late-90's, but still incredible)
4. Barry Bonds, LF - slightly down year for Bonds but still one of the all-around best players in the game
5. Albert Belle, LF - .690 SLG dwarfs everyone but McGwire
6. Edgar Martinez, DH - an all-time great hitting year (182 wRC+)
7. Reggie Sanders, RF - phenomenal hitting, solid baserunning and fielding, too
8. Chuck Knoblauch, 2B - Biggio and Knoblauch were the best 2B in baseball and it's not even close in 1995
9. Bernie Williams, CF - typically solid offense from Bernie, back when he could field his position well
10. Craig Biggio, 2B
11. Tim Salmon, RF
12. Mike Piazza, C
13. Mark McGwire, 1B
14. Hideo Nomo, P

The last two slots could change as there were a dozen or so players who had just as good seasons but with more playing time.

McGwire and Nomo dominated the game in their own way in 1995. Each player had shortened, interesting, and somewhat one-dimensional seasons. McGwire hit as well as Edgar Martinez, courtesy of unheard of BB% and ISO numbers, and Nomo was a few too many walks from being as dominant as Randy Johnson, striking out over 11 per 9IP. This was before the K explosion of recent times, but in 1995, 11 K/9 had been achieved only by Nomo, Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Doc Gooden (in 1984).
   11. DL from MN Posted: July 15, 2016 at 02:26 PM (#5265815)
Expanded playoffs in 1995

1995 ALDS CLE/BOS
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Albert Belle  3  11  3  3  1  0  1  3  4  3  .273  .467  .636  1.103  0  0  1
Kenny Lofton  3  13  1  2  0  0  0  0  1  3  .154  .267  .154  .421  0  0  2
Manny Ramirez  3  12  1  0  0  0  0  0  1  2  .000  .143  .000  .143  0  0  0
Jim Thome  3  13  1  2  0  0  1  3  1  6  .154  .214  .385  .599  0  0  0

John Valentin  3  12  1  3  1  0  1  2  3  1  .250  .400  .583  .983  0  1  1
Mo Vaughn  3  14  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  7  .000  .067  .000  .067  0  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dennis Martinez  1  1  3.00  0  0  0  0  6.0  5  2  2  0  2  0.833
Jose Mesa  2  0  0.00  0  0  0  0  2.0  0  0  0  2  0  1.000
Eric Plunk  1  0  0.00  0  0  0  0  1.1  1  0  0  1  1  1.500  

Tim Wakefield  1  1  11.81  0  1  0  0  5.1  5  7  7  5  4  1.875

   12. DL from MN Posted: July 15, 2016 at 02:55 PM (#5265828)
1995 ALDS SEA / NYY

Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Ken Griffey  5  23  9  9  0  0  5  7  2  4  .391  .444  1.043  1.488  1  0  0
Edgar Martinez  5  21  6  12  3  0  2  10  6  2  .571  .667  1.000  1.667  0  0   
Tino Martinez  5  22  4  9  1  0  1  5  3  4  .409  .480  .591  1.071  0  1  0

Wade Boggs  4  19  4  5  2  0  1  3  3  5  .263  .364  .526  .890  0  0  0
Paul O'Neill  5  18  5  6  0  0  3  6  5  5  .333  .458  .833  1.292  0  0  0
Bernie Williams  5  21  8  9  2  0  2  5  7  3  .429  .571  .810  1.381  1  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Randy Johnson  2  1  2.70  2  0  0  0  10.0  5  3  3  6  16  1.100  
Norm Charlton  4  0  2.45  1  0  1  0  7.1  4  2  2  3  9  0.955  
Jeff Nelson  3  0  3.18  0  1  0  0  5.2  7  2  2  3  7  1.765  

David Cone  2  2  4.60  1  0  0  0  15.2  15  8  8  9  14  1.532
   13. DL from MN Posted: July 15, 2016 at 03:54 PM (#5265864)
1995 NLDS ATL/COL
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chipper Jones  4  18  4  7  2  0  2  4  2  2  .389  .450  .833  1.283  0  0  0
David Justice  4  13  2  3  0  0  0  0  5  2  .231  .444  .231  .675  0  0  1  

Larry Walker  4  14  3  3  0  0  1  3  3  4  .214  .389  .429  .817  1  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Tom Glavine  1  1  2.57  0  0  0  0  7.0  5  3  2  1  3  0.857
Greg Maddux  2  2  4.50  1  0  0  0  14.0  19  7  7  2  7  1.500  
John Smoltz  1  1  7.94  0  0  0  0  5.2  5  5  5  1  6  1.059

Steve Reed  3  0  0.00  0  0  0  0  2.2  2  0  0  1  3  1.125
Kevin Ritz  2  1  7.71  0  0  0  0  7.0  12  7  6  3  5  2.143 

   14. DL from MN Posted: July 15, 2016 at 04:12 PM (#5265874)
1995 NLDS CIN / LAD
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Barry Larkin  3  13  2  5  0  0  0  1  1  2  .385  .429  .385  .813  4  0  0
Ron Gant  3  13  3  3  0  0  1  2  0  3  .231  .231  .462  .692  0  0  0
Reggie Sanders  3  13  3  2  1  0  1  2  1  9  .154  .214  .462  .676  2  0  1

Delino DeShields  3  12  1  3  0  0  0  0  1  3  .250  .308  .250  .558  0  0  0
Eric Karros  3  12  3  6  1  0  2  4  1  0  .500  .538  1.083  1.622  0  0  0  
Mike Piazza  3  14  1  3  1  0  1  1  0  2  .214  .214  .500  .714  0  0  0  
Raul Mondesi  3  9  0  2  0  0  0  1  0  2  .222  .300  .222  .522  0  0  0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Pete Schourek  1  1  2.57  1  0  0  0  7.0  5  2  2  3  5  1.143
David Wells  1  1  0.00  1  0  0  0  6.1  6  1  0  1  8  1.105

Hideo Nomo  1  1  9.00  0  1  0  0  5.0  7  5  5  2  6  1.800

   15. OCF Posted: July 23, 2016 at 01:02 AM (#5270137)
1995 was more or less the start of the Dodger pitching rotation that was called the “United Nations rotation,” although I think that name might have been coined in 1996.

In 1995, the primary rotation was Hideo Nomo (Japanese), Ramon Martinez(*) (Dominican), Ismail Valdes(**) (Mexican), and Tom Candiotti (American), with Pedro Astacio (Dominican) and Kevin Tapani (American) splitting the other starts.

In 1996, that was Nomo, Martinez, Valdes, Candiotti, and Astacio, but 10 starts went to Chan Ho Park (Korean). That’s why I think the “United Nations” tag was from 1996. And there’s something “other” about Candiotti just because he was a knuckleballer.

Of course, these days, a rotation representing that many different nationalities wouldn’t raise an eyebrow by even a flicker - but the demographics of the game have changed quite a bit in 20 years.

(*) If Ramon Martinez is remembered at all today, it’s as a familial footnote - oh, yeah, Pedro did have an older brother. But Ramon had a 14 year career, a 135-88 W-L record, and 26 WAR. He was a good major league pitcher.

(**) He’s in bb-ref now as Ismail Valdez, with a “z”. But in the mid-90’s, his name was spelled Valdes, with an “s”. And it may well be that another part of the “United Nations” notice this rotation got is his racial appearance - the two Dominicans are black, but Valdes is white.
   16. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2016 at 05:11 PM (#5272410)
1995 ALCS
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Albert Belle  5  18  1  4  1  0  1  1  3  5  .222  .364  .444  .808  0  0  2
Kenny Lofton  6  24  4  11  0  2  0  3  4  6  .458  .517  .625  1.142  5  0  0
Manny Ramirez  6  21  2  6  0  0  2  2  2  5  .286  .348  .571  .919  0  0  0
Jim Thome  5  15  2  4  0  0  2  5  2  3  .267  .353  .667  1.020  0  0  1

Ken Griffey  6  21  2  7  2  0  1  2  4  4  .333  .440  .571  1.011  2  1  1
Edgar Martinez  6  23  0  2  0  0  0  0  2  5  .087  .192  .087  .279  1  1  
Tino Martinez  6  22  1  3  0  0  0  0  3  7  .136  .240  .136  .376  0  0  1


Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Dennis Martinez  2  2  2.03  1  1  0  0  13.1  10  3  3  3  7  0.975
Jose Mesa  4  0  2.25  0  0  1  0  4.0  3  1  1  1  1  1.000
Eric Plunk  3  0  9.00  0  0  0  0  2.0  1  2  2  3  2  2.000

Randy Johnson  2  2  2.35  0  1  0  0  15.1  12  6  4  2  13  0.913
Norm Charlton  3  0  0.00  1  0  1  0  6.0  1  0  0  1  5  0.333
Jeff Nelson  3  0  0.00  0  0  0  0  3.0  3  0  0  5  3  2.667
   17. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2016 at 05:26 PM (#5272422)
1995 NLCS
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chipper Jones  4  16  3  7  0  0  1  3  3  1  .438  .526  .625  1.151  1  0  0
David Justice  3  11  1  3  0  0  0  1  2  1  .273  .385  .273  .657  0  0  0

Ron Gant  4  16  1  3  0  0  0  1  0  3  .188  .235  .188  .423  0  0  0
Barry Larkin  4  18  1  7  2  1  0  0  1  1  .389  .421  .611  1.032  1  1  1
Reggie Sanders  4  16  0  2  0  0  0  0  2  10  .125  .222  .125  .347  0  1  1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Tom Glavine  1  1  1.29  0  0  0  0  7.0  7  1  1  2  5  1.286  
Greg Maddux  1  1  1.13  1  0  0  0  8.0  7  1  1  2  4  1.125
John Smoltz  1  1  2.57  0  0  0  0  7.0  7  2  2  2  2  1.286

Pete Schourek  2  2  1.26  0  1  0  0  14.1  14  2  2  3  13  1.186
David Wells  1  1  4.50  0  1  0  0  6.0  8  3  3  2  3  1.667
   18. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2016 at 05:41 PM (#5272442)
1995 World Series
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chipper Jones  6  21  3  6  3  0  0  1  4  3  .286  .385  .429  .813  0  0  1  
David Justice  6  20  3  5  1  0  1  5  5  1  .250  .400  .450  .850  0  0  0

Albert Belle  6  17  4  4  0  0  2  4  7  5  .235  .458  .588  1.047  0  1  1
Kenny Lofton  6  25  6  5  1  0  0  0  3  1  .200  .286  .240  .526  6  1  0
Manny Ramirez  6  18  2  4  0  0  1  2  4  5  .222  .364  .389  .753  1  0  0
Jim Thome  6  19  1  4  1  0  1  2  2  5  .211  .286  .421  .707  0  0  1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Tom Glavine  2  2  1.29  2  0  0  0  14.0  4  2  2  6  11  0.714
Greg Maddux  2  2  2.25  1  1  0  1  16.0  9  6  4  3  8  0.750
John Smoltz  1  1  15.43  0  0  0  0  2.1  6  4  4  2  4  3.429

Dennis Martinez  2  2  3.48  0  1  0  0  10.1  12  4  4  8  5  1.935
Jose Mesa  2  0  4.50  1  0  1  0  4.0  5  2  2  1  4  1.500
   19. DL from MN Posted: July 26, 2016 at 05:53 PM (#5272454)
A few things move after postseason credit is applied

Maddux 1995 becomes more valuable than Maddux 1994 which is saying something

Albert Belle moves up 3 slots ahead of McGwire

Tom Glavine moves on-ballot
   20. DL from MN Posted: July 27, 2016 at 11:34 AM (#5272936)
Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1968 Gibson 19.5
1902 Waddell 19.1
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
1971 Seaver 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5
1966 Marichal 17.2
1966 Koufax 17.1
1993 Rijo 17.0
   21. DL from MN Posted: July 27, 2016 at 11:35 AM (#5272940)
Only Seaver's 1971/1972 comes close to the back-to-back years for Maddux in 1994/1995
   22. MrC. Posted: July 27, 2016 at 04:46 PM (#5273355)
Hi guys

It has been over a year since I have participated in a meritorious player ballot, but I have a bit of time for the next few months so I decided to get involved again.

Reminder: I use the WAR framework to calculate a player's value, using park adjusted value added runs for my base runs above average.

For batting, i then adjust the RAA, using fielding runs (a multiple year average of DRA), position and replacement value (I add 60% of the replacement runs used by Base Ref and Fangraphs). Using the runs/win converter, I then calculate the reduced wins above replacement. (WARR).

For pitching, I then adjust RAA, using opposition strength, role (starter or reliever), fielding support and replacement value (60% of normal replacement runs) and then convert the adjusted RAA to WARR by using the runs/win converter.

   23. MrC. Posted: July 27, 2016 at 04:58 PM (#5273360)
1995 AL All stars

C Ivan Rodriquez (poor hit and great defense) and Mike Stanley (good hit and poor defense). Take your pick.
1B Mo Vaughn
2b Chuck Knoblaugh
3B Jim Thome
SS John Valentin
OF Tim Salmon
CF Jim Edmonds (a better fielder) or Bernie Williams (a better hitter) take your choice
OF Albert Belle
DH Edgar Martinez

P Randy Johnson
P Mike Mussina
P David Cone
P Tim Wakefield


Closer Jose Mesa
   24. MrC. Posted: July 27, 2016 at 05:10 PM (#5273367)
1995 All Stars
1995 NL All Stars

C Mike Piazza
1B Jeff Bagwell
2B Craig Biggio
3B Matt Williams
SS Barry Larkin
OF Barry Bonds
CF Reggie Sanders (He played some CF)
OF Sammy Sosa

P greg Maddux
P Tom Glavine
P John Smoltz
P Denny Neagle

Reliever Curt Leskanic

Evaluating Colorado pitchers at Coors is a real challenge. Leskanic's actual numbers don't look that good, but when you consider park effects and the fielding of his team mates, his numbers are surprisingly good. But the real question then becomes: how good was he really?
   25. DL from MN Posted: July 28, 2016 at 10:26 AM (#5273649)
Glad to have you back Mr. C
   26. Rob_Wood Posted: July 28, 2016 at 12:45 PM (#5273860)
Steve Carlton's super-duper season was 1972 (not 1971) [referring to post number 20 above].
   27. EricC Posted: July 29, 2016 at 06:01 PM (#5274939)
1995 MMP prelim:

1. Greg Maddux. Another fantastic season.
2. Edgar Martinez. Best hitter; no DH penalty in my system.
3. Mike Piazza. Led league in OPS+ as C.
4. Randy Johnson. Top AL P.
5. Barry Bonds. Top LF.
6. Albert Belle. Top AL LF.
7. John Valentin. Top SS.
8. Chuck Knoblauch. Top 2B is again Charlie Garlic.
9. Tim Salmon. Top RF.
10. Barry Larkin. Top NL SS.
11. Craig Biggio. Top NL 2B.
12. Bernie Williams. Top CF. Feel the Bern.
13. Mike Mussina. Next best P.
14. Tim Wakefield. Because karlmagnus said so.

Regrets to Thome (Top 3B), Thomas, and McGwire (top two 1B).
   28. MrC. Posted: July 30, 2016 at 04:28 PM (#5275312)
1995 Preliminary Ballot

1. Greg Maddux 9.23 WARR An Amazing season Allowed about 3 runs per game less than league average.
2. Randy Johnson 8.49 WARR Great stats, even with one of the poorer defenses in AL.
3. Edgar Martinez 7.51 WARR Best ML hitter; even with DH penalty still best position player.
4. Barry Bonds 7.39 WARR A typical Bondian year.
5. Tim Salmon 6.72 WARR
6. Mike Mussina 6.41 WARR
7. Barry Larkin 6.18 WARR
8. Mike Piazza 6.10 WARR Best rate stats in NL, but fewer games than others effected his ballot position.
9. Reggie Sanders 6.06 WARR
10. David Cone 5.77 WaRR
11. Tim Wakefield 5.50 WARR
12. Albert Belle 5.49 WARR
13. Sammy Sosa 5.43 WARR a very good defensive season lifted him onto the ballot.
14. John Valentin 5.23 WARR

Rest of the top 20: Tom Glavine, Jeff Bagwell, Dennis Martinez, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Craig Biggio
   29. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: July 30, 2016 at 08:51 PM (#5275403)
An interesting year. Two pitchers at the top and only one other who is towards the bottom. No postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender:
Prelim
1. Maddux-just amazing what he was able to do in 1994 & 1995 which were both hitter's years, 10 CGs, excellent W/L
2. Johnson-a semi-distant #2 but an amazing year--294 strikeouts, low ERA just not in comparison to Maddux, also a great W/L
3. Bonds-ho-hum another great year
4. Edgar Martinez-doubles, BA, and walks-machine
5. Belle-50 HRs & 50 doubles, biggest bat in potent Cleveland line up
6. Valentin-a forgotten great year, a big reason why Boston won the East
7. Sanders-career year for a poor man's Barry Bonds, along with Larkin big for Cincy
8. Salmon-best player on Angels heartbreaker
9. Piazza-catcher bonus but didn't play a ton of games
10.Thomas-I felt fielding and positional penalties may have been too severe
11.Biggio-good overall player
12.Larkin-great SB total & success rate which WAR may have over-rewarded, excellent overall regardless
13.Mussina-high IP in tough AL East
14.McGwire-low games played kept from being higher

Honorable mention
Thome
Nomo-almost elevated due to impact on the game, was close anyways
Knoblauch-good overall, just not quite there
Palmeiro
   30. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: July 30, 2016 at 09:29 PM (#5275422)
For some reason I can't reach the ballot thread as logged in at the moment, so DL or someone else, could you please transfer this to the ballot thread. Thank you.

1995 MMP final ballot:

My methodology: I use an average of bWAR, fWAR (using the average of FIP and RA-9 numbers for pitchers), gWAR, DanR WARP (substituting BP for pre 1893 and post-2005 years), and Win Shares (crudely adjusted to a WAR-like value) . For catchers post 1948, I use Max Marchi/BP game-calling numbers for defensive values. I also believe the DH penalty is too harsh, so I split the difference between DH replacement level and 1b replacement level.

For each player's average WAR (mWAR for Michael WAR, or Mengel (my last name) WAR or just My WAR)I then plug it into a DanR-style peak-rate salary estimator (the Sfrac for all pitchers is 1). I don't give an additional catcher bonus since most don't play a full seasons worth of games, and the missing games are already built into the rate part of the salary estimator (note: this hurts catchers like Bench and Berra who did tend to play full seasons since they played their "off" days at positions other than catcher). I do not include a post-season bonus except as a final tiebreaker.

1. Greg Maddux (9.55 mWAR (10.75/162g) / $28,895,881)
2. Randy Johnson - AL MMP (8.02 mWAR (9.02/162g) / $20,935,438)
3. Albert Belle - AL MMPosition Player (7.35 mWAR (8.27/162g) / $17,754,417)
4. Barry Bonds - NL MMPosition Player (7.42 mWAR (8.35/162g) / $17,753,978)
5. Mike Piazza (6.37 mWAR (7.17/162g) / $16,265,641)
6. Edgar Martinez (7.02 mWAR (7.84/162g) / $15,956,164)
7. John Valentin (6.84 mWAR (7.70/162g) / $15,799,382)
8. Tim Salmon (6.52 mWAR (7.34/162g) / $14,155,992)
9. Jim Thome (5.94 mWAR (6.68/162g) / $12,967,258)
10. Reggie Sanders (5.99 mWAR (6.74/162g) / $12,905,693)
11. Mark McGwire (5.33 mWAR (5.99/162g) / $12,870,956)
12. Barry Larkin (5.90 mWAR (6.64/162g) / $12,659,473)
13. Craig Biggio (6.04 mWAR (6.80/162g) / $11,995,104)
14. Mike Mussina (5.69 mWAR (6.40/162g) / $11,291,957)

15-20. Bernie Williams, Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, David Cone, Kenny Rogers, Tim Wakefield.
   31. DL from MN Posted: August 03, 2016 at 01:07 PM (#5278192)
No ballot from Yardape, otherwise everyone has voted, plus 2 we didn't have last year

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