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Monday, January 30, 2017

Most Meritorious Player: 2001 Discussion

The Diamondbacks beat the Yankees in seven games. Vote for 15.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Barry Bonds		50.2		11.9
Sammy Sosa		43.8		10.3
Alex Rodriguez		34.1		8.3
Jason Giambi		38.3		9.2
Bret Boone		34.9		8.8
Rich Aurilia		32.3		6.7
Luis Gonzalez		35.6		7.9
Larry Walker		23.0		7.8
Shawn Green		34.4		7.0
Scott Rolen		27.5		5.5
Roberto Alomar		35.3		7.3
Albert Pujols		31.6		6.6
Chipper Jones		30.9		5.9
Eric Chavez		24.9		6.0
Todd Helton		25.1		7.8
Cliff Floyd		26.2		6.6
Phil Nevin		32.6		5.8
Paul Lo Duca		26.4		4.6
Lance Berkman		33.5		6.5
Jim Edmonds		27.8		5.8
Gary Sheffield		31.4		4.4
J.D. Drew		22.3		5.5
Jeff Kent		27.6		5.2
Jim Thome		31.2		5.6
Mike Piazza		22.7		4.5
Ivan Rodriguez		19.6		5.0
Ichiro Suzuki		31.9		7.7
Mike Cameron		26.6		5.9
Carlos Beltran		24.7		6.5
Corey Koskie		22.3		6.3
Bobby Abreu		28.2		5.2
Vladimir Guerrero	23.8		4.9	
Manny Ramirez		24.5		5.2
Edgar Martinez		25.2		4.8
Brian Giles		28.9		5.3
Bobby Higginson		19.0		3.4
Jeff Bagwell		26.8		5.8
Troy Glaus		21.1		5.2
John Olerud		24.3		5.2
Juan Gonzalez		23.6		4.4
Carlos Delgado		25.0		4.5
Trot Nixon		20.9		3.7
Derek Jeter		27.7		5.2
Bernie Williams		26.3		5.2
Mark McLemore		18.6		3.5
Jermaine Dye		18.7		2.6
Rafael Palmeiro		24.0		4.7
Torii Hunter 		18.3		4.7
Miguel Tejada		22.9		4.2

Randy Johnson		26.0		9.4
Curt Schilling		24.3		8.5
Javier Vazquez		20.3		6.2
Mike Mussina		19.7		7.1
Greg Maddux		19.6		5.2
Joe Mays		22.4		6.6
Darryl Kile		17.8		5.0
Mark Buehrle		18.0		6.0
John Burkett		17.3		4.4
Roger Clemens		18.3		5.6
Mark Mulder		18.2		5.6
John Lieber		16.6		3.9
Pedro Martinez		12.3		5.1
Roy Oswalt		14.5		4.8
Russ Ortiz		15.4		4.6
Steve Sparks		15.1		4.3
Chan Ho Park		16.1		4.3
Wade Miller		17.0		5.2
Kerry Wood		13.5		3.6
Tom Glavine		16.1		3.6
Tim Hudson		17.5		4.4
Matt Morris		17.6		3.9
Bartolo Colon		13.8		4.5
Barry Zito		15.8		4.4
Brad Radke		17.2		4.6

Mariano Rivera		18.4		3.4
Jeff Zimmerman		13.5		3.4
Keith Foulke		16.9		3.8
Felix Rodriguez		12.1		3.3
Byung-Hyun Kim		15.1		3.2


DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2017 at 02:44 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2017 at 02:58 PM (#5392663)
The spreadsheet says Bonds had the best year in the history of the MMP ahead of Wagner 1908 and Mantle 1957.
   2. OCF Posted: January 30, 2017 at 10:56 PM (#5393016)
This will be the last year for me contributing in the style I’ve been using for the last few years, because my 2001 post-season all-star memo (to a few friends) is the last one of the series. Or at least it’s the last one I can find - I can’t find a 2002 anywhere in my files. It may have been sometime in 2002 that I discovered this site, and it wasn’t that long after that the energies I had shown writing those memos got diverted by me being sucked into the Hall of Merit project.

Anyway: NL all-star team, with batting order:

1. Jim Edmonds, CF
2. Chipper Jones, 1B (!)
3. Sammy Sosa, RF
4. Barry Bonds, LF
5. Luis Gonzalez, DH
6. Albert Pujols, 3B
7. Rich Aurilia, SS
8. Mike Piazza, C
9. Jeff Kent, 2B

Starter #1: Randy Johnson
Starter #2: Curt Schilling
Starter #3: Darryl Kile
Starter #4: Greg Maddux
Starter #5: John Burkett


Paul LoDuca, C
Phil Nevin, IF
Jimmy Rollins, SS
Brian Giles, OF
Lance Berkman, OF
Todd Helton, 1B

Billy Wagner, Closer
Byung-Hyun Kim, RP
Matt Morris, P
Tom Glavine, P
Kerry Wood, P

One quote: “Third base and first base were quite complicated. … I get an offensive order of Jones, Pujols, Nevin, Helton, Klesko, Bagwell - all three third basemen ahead of all three first basemen. But are they really third basemen? Jones consistently posts some of the worst defensive statistics among third basemen. During the part of the year he played there, Pujols had fairly good statistics at third base, but in the last half of the season, the Cardinals played him only at LF and 1B. Helton is a good defensive first baseman, Klesko isn’t, and I don’t know about Bagwell. The decision I came up with - Pujols and Jones in the starting lineup, Helton and Nevin on the bench - was not inevitable.”

Another quote: “There were three great offensive outfielders in Bonds, Sosa, and Gonzalez. Unfortunately, none of them is a centerfielder. Edmonds was the by far the best hitter among those whose primary position was CF, but there’s also a reasonable argument for Brian Giles. Giles was a slightly better offensive player than Edmonds, but his playing time is listed as 124 games in LF, 61 games in CF (hence 26 games in which he played both positions). Gary Matthews, Jr. played most of the CF for the Pirates (and didn’t hit a lick).”
   3. OCF Posted: January 30, 2017 at 10:58 PM (#5393018)
AL all-star team

1. Roberto Alomar, 2B
2. Manny Ramirez, LF
3. Alex Rodriguez, SS
4. Jason Giambi, 1B
5. Jim Thome, DH
6. Bret Boone, 3B (out of position)
7. Juan Gonzalez, RF
8. Ivan Rodriguez, C
9. Carlos Beltran, CF

Starter #1: Freddy Garcia
Starter #2: Joe Mays
Starter #3: Mike Mussina
Starter #4: Mark Mulder
Starter #5: Mark Buehrle


Jorge Posada, C
Miguel Tejada, SS
Troy Glaus, 3B
Ichiro Suzuki, OF
Edgar Martinez, DH
Magglio Ordonñez, OF

Mariano Rivera, Closer
Kazuhiro Sasaki, RP
Jamie Moyer, P
Tim Hudson, P
Roger Clemens, P

A few quotes about this:

“For the first time in 6 years, there is only one shortstop in the starting lineup. Garciaparra missed nearly the entire season due to injury, and Jeter’s defensive limitations helped push him out of the starting lineup. “ I also commented on a relative shortage of outfielders in the AL and mentioned that Manny was more often a DH than a LF.
   4. OCF Posted: January 30, 2017 at 11:01 PM (#5393022)
NL Cy Young:
1. Johsnon
2. Schilling
3. Kile
4. Maddux
5. Burkett (close call over Morris)

AL Cy Young:

1. Garcia
2. Mays
3. Mussina
4. Mulder
5. Buehrle

I commented on the fact that quite a few of these pitchers (in the AL) were pretty young, but they also had rather low strikeout rates - in particular, I noted that Mays had a strikeout rate quite a bit below league average. I assume that those of you who use defense-independent stats won’t have Mays anywhere near the top, and possibly not Buehrle or Garcia, either. I also decried the fact that Clemens would probably get the CYA.


1. Barry Bonds
2. Sammy Sosa
3. Luis Gonzalez
4. Randy Johnson
5. Albert Pujols
6. Chipper Jones
7. Rich Aurilia

“I have often said that I have a very simple search technique for MVP candidates: check the leader lists for On Base Percentage and Slugging Average. Anyone who is on both lists is automatically a candidate. If anyone leads the league in both categories, that is a prima facie case for being the MVP - you’re going to have to prove why not, and you need some big weapons to make that argument. So, if that’s the criterion, what can you possibly say about someone who set the single-season record for slugging percentage, breaking a record that until very recently seemed unbreakable? When that was accompanied by the highest On Base Percentage since 1957, one of the top 10 OBP seasons of all time?”


1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Jason Giambi
3. Roberto Alomar
4. Jim Thome
5. Bret Boone
6. Manny Ramirez
7. Edgar Martinez

I had a long discussion about Ichiro, with an extensive comparison of Ichiro 2001 to Willie McGee 1985. It’s really quite a good match. Of course, I don’t think McGee deserved the 1985 NL MVP, either.
   5. OCF Posted: January 30, 2017 at 11:03 PM (#5393023)
A longer comment after a rundown on many, many records and other statistical accomplishments for Bonds:

“And yet, there’s an edge of dissatisfaction. The Giants didn’t win the division. The Giants, despite the presence of this monster and the all-star shortstop and second baseman, merely placed 5th in the league in runs scored. Arizona had the same number of hits as the Giants (that is, essentially the same batting average), 25 fewer doubles and triples, 27 fewer home runs, 38 fewer walks - and yet, the Diamondbacks scored 19 more runs than the Giants. I thank [my son] for pointing this out: Bonds was the only player in history on anything like a full season to have fewer than 2.0 RBI per home run. There it is in Bond’s case: 73 HR, 137 RBI. I checked this against some other odd cases. My two favorite examples from 1987 of the damage done by bad lineup placement: Leon Durham, 27 HR, 63 RBI; Brook Jacoby 32 HR, 69 RBI. In 1996, Brady Anderson did manage to get 110 RBI with his 50 HR, and he was batting leadoff. The Giants had the most horribly dysfunctional offense you’ve ever seen, and I’m not sure I can completely explain why. Sure, they had awful leadoff hitters (mostly Calvin Murray and Marvin Benard). Sure, Bonds would probably have been better off batting 4th instead of 3rd. Rich Aurilia is a wonderful hitter (for a shortstop) but his strength is in hitting home runs, not in leaving runners on base for Bonds coming up behind him. Sure, Jeff Kent had an “anti-clutch” season in which he didn’t match his good average and plentiful extra-base hits with the opportunities that Bonds’s 177 walks left him. (Kent had only 106 RBI, which is pathetically low, given his circumstances.) You can’t pin this dysfunction on Bonds himself - his situational statistics show that he did rise to the occasion when he had runners on base or runners in scoring position. I still can’t adequately explain what happened to the Giants.”
   6. OCF Posted: January 30, 2017 at 11:23 PM (#5393034)
And a couple of final quotes:

(After a table of runs scored per game for each league): "That’s news: run scoring dipped, by quite a bit. In the AL, scoring was the lowest in 6 years. In that context, by having the same year he had last year, Jason Giambi actually had a better year."

"Much of the sentiment around Bonds' 73 HR took the form that while McGwire’s 70 was special this, coming just 3 years later, wasn’t, and that of course someone’s going to hit 75 in another couple of years, and 80 after that, and so on. This might be right - as long as HR per game are at 1.1 or 1.15, that record will be vulnerable. The 2000-to-2001 offense drop might a blip that will reverse in another year. But don’t rule out that it might be a trend, an institutions-of-baseball reaction against the excesses of the 1994-2000 period. When Babe Ruth hit 60 HR in 1927, it was an event of little significance - stretching by 1 a 6-year-old record. Surely that one would also soon fall, wouldn’t it? In the next decade, Hack Wilson, Hank Greenberg, and Jimmy Foxx all came within 4 of breaking it - but the record stood for 34 years. I could easily be wrong, but I think that 73 is going to stand as the HR record for 20 years or more."
   7. DL from MN Posted: February 01, 2017 at 05:38 PM (#5394259)
2001 Prelim

1) Barry Bonds - best season we have seen in the MMP voting
2) Sammy Sosa - 3 full batting wins behind Bonds
3) Alex Rodriguez - now a Ranger
4) Jason Giambi
5) Bret Boone - good glove
6) Randy Johnson - best pitcher
7) Rich Aurilia - good glove
8) Luis Gonzalez
9) Larry Walker - great fielding season
10) Shawn Green
11) Curt Schilling - lousy hitting from Johnson and Schilling
12) Scott Rolen - great fielding season (Chavez was better though)
13) Roberto Alomar
14) Albert Pujols
15) Chipper Jones

16-20) Eric Chavez, Todd Helton, Mike Mussina, Cliff Floyd, Javier Vazquez
21-26) Phil Nevin, Paul Lo Duca, Lance Berkman, Jim Edmonds, Greg Maddux, Joe Mays
   8. ThickieDon Posted: February 02, 2017 at 10:50 AM (#5394600)
@DL That's pretty much exactly my Top 15, give or take a few differences in position.
   9. ThickieDon Posted: February 02, 2017 at 02:13 PM (#5394811)
1. Barry Bonds

2. Randy Johnson - 372 K's in 249.2 IP, plus post-season puts him slightly ahead of all-time great (roid-fueled?) offense by Sammy and Giambi
3. Sammy Sosa
4. Jason Giambi

5. Curt Schilling - with a big post-season bonus
6. Luis Gonzalez
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Bret Boone
9. Todd Helton
10. Larry Walker
11. Rich Aurilia
12. Mike Mussina
13. Lance Berkman
14. Roberto Alomar
15. Chipper Jones

#1 through 4 are done.

Still sorting the rest of this out. #'5-15 are not in rock solid order yet. Pujols, Floyd, Chavez, Nevin and Maddux are in the running to bump off #'s 12 thru 15, possibly.
   10. DL from MN Posted: February 08, 2017 at 02:35 PM (#5397931)
For a real-time SABR perspective check out the Internet Baseball Awards

Most Valuable Player, AL: Jason Giambi, Athletics
Most Valuable Player, NL: Barry Bonds, Giants
Cy Young, AL: Freddy García, Mariners
Cy Young, NL: Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
   11. DL from MN Posted: February 17, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5403901)
I will be out of town 3/1-3/10 on vacation. Does someone else want to end the voting or do I wait to post results when I return?
   12. Chris Fluit Posted: February 18, 2017 at 05:29 PM (#5404412)
I've tabulated for you before but I can't do it in early March. Unless someone else steps up, I vote to wait.
   13. Chris Fluit Posted: February 18, 2017 at 05:43 PM (#5404417)
2001 Preliminary Ballot

1. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco Giants: the year Barry broke baseball- 259 OPS+ and 230 runs created
2. Sammy Sosa, RF, Chicago Cubs: 203 OPS+ and he's not even close to first place
3. Jason Giambi, 1B, Oakland Athletics: a 199 OPS+ to lead the AL
4. Alex Rodriguez, SS, Texas Rangers: 160 OPS+ and 159 RC for his new team
5. Luis Gonzalez, LF, Arizona Diamondbacks: 174 OPS+ in the desert
6. Randy Johnson, P, Arizona Diamondbacks: best pitcher in baseball with a 188 ERA+ and 249 IP
7. Bret Boone, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 153 OPS+ to go with +12 fielding
8. Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado Rockies: a nice follow-up to his incredible 2000 season
9. Roberto Alomar, 2B, Cleveland Indians: a 150 OPS+ this year, but watch out for that cliff, Roberto!
10. Larry Walker, RF, Colorado Rockies: 160 OPS+ and +14 fielding
11. Curt Schilling, P, Arizona Diamondbacks: overshadowed by the Big Unit but 157 ERA+ in 256 IP isn't too shabby
12. Jim Thome, 1B, Cleveland Indians: 170 OPS+ though a dreadful -9 fielding
13. Rich Aurilia, SS, San Francisco Giants: a career year out by the bay
14. Lance Berkman, LF, Houston Astros: 5th in NL OPS+
15. Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves: 160 OPS+ from the hot corner

16. Albert Pujols, 3B/LF, St. Louis Cardinals: just missed this year but I'll think we'll hear from him again
17. Mike Mussina, P, New York Yankees: a nice debut for his new team while leading the AL in FIP
18. Shawn Green, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Greg Maddux, P, Atlanta Braves
20. Joe Mays, P, Minnesota Twins: has an argument for the top AL pitcher
21. Manny Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox
22. Phil Nevin, 3B, San Diego Padres
23. Ichiro Suzuki, RF, Seattle Mariners
24. John Burkett, P, Atlanta Braves
25. Freddy Garcia, P, Seattle Mariners

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