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Friday, October 06, 2017

Most Meritorious Player: 2009 Discussion

Most Meritorious Player: 2009 Discussion

The Yankees beat the Phillies 4 games to 2 in the World Series. Vote for 15.

Player Name		SH WS		rWAR
Albert Pujols		39.7		9.7
Ben Zobrist		26.6		8.6
Joe Mauer		34.5		7.8
Chase Utley		32.2		8.2
Chone Figgins		26.5		7.7
Hanley Ramirez		34.9		7.3
Ryan Zimmerman		23.5		7.3
Evan Longoria		25.8		7.0
Troy Tulowitzki		25.9		6.5
Derek Jeter		26.9		6.5
Franklin Gutierrez	18.8		6.6
Adrian Gonzalez		33.6		6.9
Kevin Youkilis		25.6		6.6
Jason Bartlett		23.0		6.2
Ian Kinsler		21.8		6.0
Ryan Braun		33.0		6.2
Prince Fielder		34.9		6.3
Aaron Hill		22.9		5.8
Dustin Pedroia		23.1		5.6
Marco Scutaro		18.8		5.4
Torii Hunter		21.2		5.2
Derrek Lee		24.0		5.4
Shin-Soo Choo		23.0		5.5
Brendan Ryan		14.8		4.5
Matt Kemp		26.0		4.9
Jason Bay		25.3		5.2
Casey Blake		20.1		4.6
Mark Teixeira		26.9		5.3
Joey Votto		23.5		4.8
Carl Crawford		22.2		5.0
Yunel Escobar		20.3		4.3
Miguel Cabrera		26.1		5.1
Robinson Cano		23.5		4.5
Ichiro Suzuki		26.5		4.7
Pablo Sandoval		29.8		4.3
Miguel Montero		13.6		3.3
Brian McCann		17.8		3.2
Yadier Molina		19.3		3.1
Kurt Suzuki		17.4		3.4
Victor Martinez		20.8		3.5
Curtis Granderson	20.7		4.3
J.D. Drew		19.8		4.4
Jayson Werth		25.0		4.5
Alex Rodriguez		21.2		4.1
Kendrys Morales		25.4		4.3
Johnny Damon		19.2		4.2
Ryan Howard		27.0		3.8
Matt Holliday		26.3		2.3


Pitcher Name
Zack Greinke		25.5		10.4
Tim Lincecum		21.9		7.6
Josh Johnson		16.8		7.4
Roy Halladay		21.5		6.9
Dan Haren		18.9		7.1
Chris Carpenter		20.8		6.8
Jair Jurrjens		17.7		6.7
Adam Wainwright		21.6		6.8
Matt Cain		18.9		6.5
Javier Vazquez		17.3		6.6
Jon Lester		17.6		6.2
CC Sabathia		19.1		6.2
Felix Hernandez		26.5		5.9
Ubaldo Jimenez		19.1		6.0
Justin Verlander	21.3		5.5
Mark Buehrle		16.4		5.4
Josh Beckett		16.3		5.2
Ted Lilly		14.5		4.6
John Danks		15.7		5.0
Cliff Lee		18.0		5.4
Clayton Kershaw		13.0		4.6
Wandy Rodriguez		16.9		4.5
Kevin Millwood		15.3		4.7
Randy Wells		13.2		4.3

Mariano Rivera		15.9		3.6
Andrew Bailey		16.9		3.7
Jonathan Papelbon	14.9		3.6

 

DL from MN Posted: October 06, 2017 at 04:00 PM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: October 06, 2017 at 04:12 PM (#5546176)
2009 Prelim

1) Zack Greinke - once in a decade pitching performance

Best pitching seasons in the history of the MMP project by my point score

1985 Gooden 21.5
1995 Maddux 21.4
1971 Carlton 21.2
1994 Maddux 20.6
1997 Clemens 19.9
1968 Gibson 19.5
2000 P Martinez 19.5
2009 Greinke 19.1
1902 Waddell 19.1
1963 Koufax 18.7
1972 Seaver 18.3
2004 Santana 18.2
1971 Seaver 18.0
1999 P Martinez 18.0
1971 Wood 17.9
2015 Greinke 17.9
1901 Young 17.8
1978 Guidry 17.7
1972 Perry 17.7
1995 Johnson 17.7
1980 Carlton 17.5
1953 Roberts 17.5

2) Albert Pujols - good fielding season
3) Ben Zobrist - very good glove year
4) Joe Mauer - very close to Zobrist after C bonus
5) Chase Utley - great baserunning year
6) Tim Lincecum - best NL pitcher
7) Chone Figgins - best infield glove
8) Hanley Ramirez
9) Ryan Zimmerman
10) Josh Johnson
11) Evan Longoria
12) Roy Halladay
13) Dan Haren
14) Chris Carpenter - now more pitchers
15) Troy Tulowitzki

16-20) Jair Jurrjens, Derek Jeter, Franklin Gutierrez, Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Wainwright
21-25) Matt Cain, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bartlett, Jon Lester
   2. bjhanke Posted: October 07, 2017 at 11:29 PM (#5547104)
I agree that Greinke had a great season, for 229 IP. However, I'd also like to point out that, in 2015, in 223 IP, he had a 1.66 ERA, went 19-3, had an ERA+ of 222, and won a Gold Glove. That's a noticeably better season in about the same number of IP, and certainly within the same decade, although the voters somehow only found it to be second in the Cy Young race. Yes, it was in a better pitchers' park, but his ERA+, which adjusts for that, was better than here in 2009. I have very grave doubts about WAR's ranking this year. I mean, if he's better than Albert Pujols here in 2009, where does the 2015 season rank? Better than Babe or Honus at their best? - Brock Hanke
   3. DL from MN Posted: October 08, 2017 at 10:11 PM (#5547382)
MLB runs/game 2009 4.61, 2015 4.25
   4. bjhanke Posted: October 09, 2017 at 05:59 PM (#5548120)
DL - You're right. And that's why I was careful to check the ERA+, which adjusts for raw ERA. Zack's ERA+ in 2009 was 205, which is terrific. But his ERA+ in 2015 was 222, which is even more terrific, and those numbers inherently correct for the MLB R/G. The problem is that those terrific ERA+ scores are uncomfortably close to his Innings Pitched, which were 229 in 2009 and 223 in 2015. It's just too few innings, especially when you note that starters get the LEAST-leveraged innings. Closers get the most-leveraged, then setup men, then middle relievers, then starters. I should probably note that I have no idea whether BB-Ref WAR corrects for inning leverage or not. If it doesn't, that might explain why its rankings for pitchers are so high. I'll try to run through the BB-Ref definition of ERA+ and see if it does that. I also just had an idea, for which I thank you. I have no idea whether, when estimating leverage for middle relievers, WAR or any other system makes any adjustment for the fact that middle relievers pitch a certain number of innings in blowouts, where the actual inning (3rd or 6th or whatever) isn't really relevant to leverage because the game is all but over. - Brock
   5. bjhanke Posted: October 09, 2017 at 11:19 PM (#5548505)
DL - I feel like an idiot. I finally started doing what I should have done months ago - take a look at what BBRef WAR is doing and what problems THEY have found and are trying to fix. I am only at the surface of this, but here's where I am. I found, in the FAQ section of the main BB-Ref page, a link to how WAR is calculated. So I went there. It is a VERY honest description; nobody is hiding anything. The last "version" (which probably means "revision", but more on that later) is 2.2, from 2013. It had nothing of interest to pitcher rankings. But version 2.1, from 2012, did. Here's an excerpt (the whole thing is too big to copy over here; let's just say that there is context around this and you should read it instead of just taking this excerpt at face value):

<<After launching version 2.0 on May 4th, we immediately became aware of an issue that had concerned us, but we thought we still had right. Pitchers were being overvalued due to a runs-to-win estimate that broke down for extreme performances. A stingy pitcher drives down the runs per win, but not to the degree we were showing.>>

This is exactly what I have been complaining about. I know I use the shorthand "pitcher rankings" for a MMP year, but I'm pretty sure that everyone knows that I only am looking at the top pitchers. And, at least as of 2012, WAR was overrating exactly those pitchers. What I do NOT know, because I haven't found any comment on this yet, is whether they have managed to find a fix for the problem, which isn't trivial to start with, and, if they have, whether they have back-calculated their revision numbers for seasons before 2012. Asking them to do that is not a joke. Back-calculting every pitcher in MLB history (including the NA) would involve a monstrous amount of computer power. I don't see how they could do it at all except by 1) shutting the site down for at least a few days to let all the recalculations, and the consequences of the recalculations, get done, or 2) run the recalculations in a background partition for maybe multiple weeks. This second approach, while it seems easy, is not. Either you have to carry, in a temporary memory, ALL the recalculations you have done so far until you're done, and then replace all the pages on the site, or spend several days or weeks where some pitchers have been recalculated and some have not, and you're doing the updating continuously, which would be a user nightmare. I can't blame them if they haven't done that yet. What I can say is that, unless they have found some way to do the recalculations, then I have noticed something that is real, and that WAR does, in fact, overrate top pitchers until at least 2012. Again, I'm not blaming BB-Ref at all. I've worked with large computer database revisions. I know what they are like. They are not fun. They are a computer-resource nightmare. I can't blame anyone if all the back-calculations haven't been done yet. But, still, the overratings that I have seen appear to be real, and BB-Ref is aware of them. And trying to fix them. Good for BB-Ref. No complaints.

There was one other sentence that I read and wondered about. It goes <<Leverage Index (I assume that everyone knows what that means) is now applied only to relief pitchers.>> There's no further explanation, and I am not at all sure how it fits into the entire maze of calculations that BB-Ref uses to get to WAR. But it might be a problem leading to overrating starters. I don't know.

There is another comment, elsewhere, that isn't related to pitchers, but is related to the general concept. Someone somewhere (I'm not sure where; it could be on Bill James' site) said that some, if not all, ranking systems overrate extreme HITTER performances. The term used was "unnecessary runs." The idea is that, above a certain level, extra runs created do not represent the same percentage of wins created that lower levels do. The concept, if I understand it correctly, is that there is a point where you stop turning losses into wins and just start turning wins into blowouts, which don't count any extra in the W/L column. But I can't remember where I saw this, and I have no idea where the "unnecessary" level might be, or how many hitters might be affected. Sorry about that. I should take better notes.

Anyway, this is certainly relevant to what I've been writing and ranking for the last many years' worth of MMPs, so I thought I'd put it up here even though I'm just getting into the implications. It seems important. - Brock
   6. MrC. Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:53 PM (#5550157)
Hi Brock

1. Runs/win estimate

In the various versions of bREF WAR, there have been 3 versions of the runs/win estimator used.

In the first version, there was no attempt to factor in the actual pitcher stats in calculating the runs/game part of the formula (a league wide runs/win value was used)

In the second version this there was an attempt to use each pitcher's numbers to calculate a unique runs/win value for each pitcher. However, they used a linear estimator for this value which broke down at the extremes.

In version three, they addressed this problem by using the Pythagenpat formula to create the generally accepted best runs/win estimator.

I will use Roy Halladay's 2011 season as an example

Version 1 (using a league wide estimator) Halladay's WAR would be 8.57.

Version 2.1 (using a poorly constructed unique estimator), Halladay' WAR would be 10.25. This is the version which you talk about in above post)

version 2.2 (the fix of the above problem: using Pythagenpat to create a unique estimator). Halladay's WAR would be 8.9 WAR.

The correction has been applied to all previous years.

Bref uses the same method of calculating a unique runs per win estimator for batters, thus taking into account your last comment.

2. Leverage index

in version 2.1 of WAR, Bref made an attempt to calculate a leverage index for starters, which created problems (I'm sorry I don't remember all the details of this problem). As a result, the leverage index for all starter innings is set as 1 in version 2.2 of the WAR calculation.

If you look at the pitcher value page at Bref, one of the column headings is gmLi (game leverage index). The numbers in these columns represent the leverage index for only those innings pitched in relief. So starters who pitched some relief innings will have a lev index which applies only to their relief innings. The lev index is then used to make an adjustment too relievers WAR.






   7. bjhanke Posted: October 12, 2017 at 12:38 PM (#5551218)
Mr. C - This is VERY helpful right now. As I said, I'm just starting to look at the surface, but Don Malcolm comes in tomorrow for four days, and we always spend our time together wrestling with baseball (we revert right back to our Baseball Maniacs days). Your comment helps a lot in steering that analysis in a reasonable direction. THANKS! - Brock
   8. ThickieDon Posted: October 12, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5551290)
Prelim 2009, includes post-season bonuses

1. Albert Pujols - top NL position player
2. Joe Mauer - top AL position player
3. Chase Utley - post-season bump
4. Ben Zobrist
5. Zack Greinke - top hurler
6. Hanley Ramirez
7. Prince Fielder
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Tim Lincecum
10. Derek Jeter - post-season bump
11. Evan Longoria
12. Chone Figgins
13. Ryan Zimmerman
14. Franklin Gutierrez
15. Justin Verlander
   9. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 02:59 PM (#5555132)
NLDS Dodgers 3 Cardinals 0
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Casey Blake 3 11 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 .273 .385 .273 .657 0 0 0
Matt Kemp 3 14 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 8 .143 .143 .357 .500 0 0 0

Yadier Molina 3 13 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 .308 .308 .385 .692 0 0 0
Albert Pujols 3 10 0 3 0 0 0 1 3 1 .300 .462 .300 .762 0 0 0
Brendan Ryan 3 12 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 .083 .083 .167 .250 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Clayton Kershaw 1 1 2.70 0 0 0 0 6.2 9 2 2 1 4 1.500 

Chris Carpenter 1 1 7.20 0 1 0 0 5.0 9 4 4 4 3 2.600
Adam Wainwright 1 1 1.13 0 0 0 0 8.0 3 1 1 1 7 0.500
   10. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:03 PM (#5555136)
NLDS Phillies 3 Rockies 1
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chase Utley 4 14 5 6 0 0 1 1 4 3 .429 .556 .643 1.198 2 0 0 
Jayson Werth 4 14 5 5 0 1 2 4 4 4 .357 .500 .929 1.429 0 0 0

Troy Tulowitzki 4 16 0 4 2 0 0 3 0 2 .250 .278 .375 .653 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Cliff Lee 2 2 1.10 1 0 0 1 16.1 11 4 2 3 10 0.857 

Ubaldo Jimenez 2 2 5.25 0 1 0 0 12.0 15 7 7 3 11 1.500
   11. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:24 PM (#5555150)
ALDS Yankees 3 Twins 0
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Robinson Cano 3 12 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0
Johnny Damon 3 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 .083 .154 .083 .237 0 0 0
Derek Jeter 3 10 4 4 2 0 1 2 3 0 .400 .538 .900 1.438 0 0 0
Alex Rodriguez 3 11 4 5 0 0 2 6 1 2 .455 .500 1.000 1.500 0 0 0
Mark Teixeira 3 12 3 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 .167 .231 .417 .647 0 0 0

Joe Mauer 3 12 1 5 1 0 0 1 2 4 .417 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
CC Sabathia 1 1 1.35 1 0 0 0 6.2 8 2 1 0 8 1.200
Mariano Rivera 3 0 0.00 0 0 1 0 3.2 4 0 0 1 7 1.364
   12. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:29 PM (#5555154)
ALDS Angels 3 Red Sox 0
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chone Figgins 3 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 .000 .077 .000 .077 0 0 0
Torii Hunter 3 10 2 2 1 0 1 3 2 1 .200 .385 .600 .985 0 0 0
Kendrys Morales 3 10 1 2 0 0 1 3 1 0 .200 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0

Jason Bay 3 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 .125 .364 .125 .489 0 0 1
Victor Martinez 3 11 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 .182 .250 .182 .432 0 0 0
Dustin Pedroia 3 12 1 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 .167 .231 .250 .481 0 0 0
Kevin Youkilis 3 12 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 .083 .083 .167 .250 0 0 1

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Josh Beckett 1 1 5.40 0 1 0 0 6.2 5 4 4 1 3 0.900
Jon Lester 1 1 4.50 0 1 0 0 6.0 4 3 3 4 5 1.333
Jonathan Papelbon 2 0 13.50 0 1 0 0 2.0 4 3 3 2 1 3.000
   13. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:32 PM (#5555156)
NLCS Phillies 4 Dodgers 1
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Chase Utley 5 19 3 4 0 0 0 1 4 4 .211 .348 .211 .558 0 0 2
Jayson Werth 5 18 5 4 0 0 3 6 2 7 .222 .300 .722 1.022 0 0 0

Casey Blake 5 19 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 5 .105 .105 .105 .211 1 0 0
Matt Kemp 5 20 2 5 0 0 1 2 1 8 .250 .286 .400 .686 0 1 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Cliff Lee 1 1 0.00 1 0 0 0 8.0 3 0 0 0 10 0.375

Clayton Kershaw 2 1 9.45 0 1 0 0 6.2 5 7 7 6 6 1.650
   14. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:36 PM (#5555164)
ALCS Yankees 4 Angels 2
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Robinson Cano 6 23 4 6 1 2 0 4 4 3 .261 .414 .478 .892 0 0 2
Johnny Damon 6 30 4 9 1 0 2 5 1 2 .300 .323 .533 .856 0 0 0
Derek Jeter 6 27 5 7 0 0 2 3 6 5 .259 .394 .481 .875 0 1 1
Alex Rodriguez 6 21 6 9 2 0 3 6 8 3 .429 .567 .952 1.519 1 0 0
Mark Teixeira 6 27 2 6 1 0 0 4 3 8 .222 .290 .259 .550 0 0 0

Chone Figgins 6 23 2 3 0 0 0 1 3 3 .130 .259 .130 .390 0 0 1
Torii Hunter 6 23 2 7 1 0 0 2 5 4 .304 .429 .348 .776 1 1 1
Kendrys Morales 6 24 1 4 0 0 1 4 1 6 .167 .231 .292 .522 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Mariano Rivera 5 0 1.29 0 0 2 0 7.0 3 1 1 2 4 0.714
CC Sabathia 2 2 1.13 2 0 0 0 16.0 9 2 2 3 12 0.750
   15. DL from MN Posted: October 16, 2017 at 03:41 PM (#5555167)
World Series Yankees 4 Phillies 2
Player Name  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  SO  BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  SB  CS  E
Robinson Cano 6 22 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 5 .136 .130 .136 .267 0 0 0
Johnny Damon 6 22 6 8 2 0 0 4 3 3 .364 .440 .455 .895 3 0 0
Derek Jeter 6 27 5 11 3 0 0 1 1 6 .407 .429 .519 .947 0 0 0
Alex Rodriguez 6 20 5 5 3 0 1 6 3 8 .250 .423 .550 .973 1 0 1
Mark Teixeira 6 22 5 3 1 0 1 3 2 8 .136 .296 .318 .614 0 0 0

Chase Utley 6 21 7 6 1 0 5 8 4 5 .286 .400 1.048 1.448 1 0 0
Jayson Werth 6 19 3 5 0 0 2 3 5 7 .263 .417 .579 .996 0 0 0

Pitcher Name  G  GS  ERA  W  L  SV  CG  IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  WHIP
Mariano Rivera 4 0 0.00 0 0 2 0 5.1 3 0 0 2 3 0.938
CC Sabathia 2 2 3.29 0 1 0 0 13.2 11 5 5 6 12 1.244

Cliff Lee 2 2 2.81 2 0 0 1 16.0 13 6 5 3 13 1.000

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