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Monday, January 22, 2018

Most Meritorious Player: 2011 Ballot

For 2011 each voter should rank the top 15 players from all leagues combined.

Balloting is scheduled to close at 4pm EDT on 7 February 2018.

Anyone can vote, even if you do not normally participate in Hall of Merit discussions. If you have never participated in an MMP election, just post a preliminary ballot in the discussion thread by 6 February 2018.

For detailed rules see one of our previous ballots.

DL from MN Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:38 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 22, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5611041)
1) Roy Halladay - postseason performance separates him from Cliff Lee
2) Cliff Lee - some of his value is bat
3) Justin Verlander - top AL pitcher. I don't remember another year where pitchers were 1-2-3 on my ballot
4) Matt Kemp - big bat and just slightly below average defense in CF
5) Jacoby Ellsbury - good year for centerfielders
6) Ben Zobrist - averaging in Fangraphs defense brings his glove back to Earth
7) Dustin Pedroia - good glove
8) Ian Kinsler - good baserunning, strong postseason for the Rangers
9) Ryan Braun - good bat, good postseason
10) Jose Bautista - 2nd best bat, Fangraphs hates his glove
11) CC Sabathia
12) Evan Longoria - good glove
13) Miguel Cabrera - best bat of 2011
14) Mike Napoli - strong postseason
15) Jered Weaver

16-20) Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Adrian Beltre, Troy Tulowitzki, Alex Avila
21-25) Alex Gordon, Pablo Sandoval, Ricky Romero, Adrian Gonzalez, Curtis Granderson
   2. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5611631)
I don't think anything's likely to change for me in the next couple of weeks. So, I may as well get this posted. See comment #59 of the Discussion Thread. Ratings weight postseason games the same as regular-season games.

1. Joey Bautista
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Ryan Braun
4. Roy Halladay
5. Justin Verlander
6. Cliff Lee
7. Evan Longoria
8. Jered Weaver
9. Mike Napoli
10. Matt Kemp
11. Miguel Cabrera
12. Dan Haren
13. Curtis Granderson
14. Alex Avila
15. Josh Hamilton

Looking at surrounding years, I'm comfortable that the lack of middle infielders is just a one-year fluke, not a problem with my rating system. I rate Ben Zobrist as a good, not great, fielder, which, as I noted in the discussion thread, is consistent with everybody else except for BB-Ref's DRS, which keeps him off-ballot.
   3. MrC. Posted: January 23, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5611756)
2011 Final Ballot

After following the discussion about fielding numbers and doing some checking myself, i went back to using the defensive metric i have used for nearly all the previous years of voting, DRA.

I also did some changes on my post season adjustments, Leaving me with the following results

1. Jose Bautista 9.85 WARR
2. Cliff Lee 8.22 WARR
3. Jacob Ellsbury 8.10 WARR
4. Ryan Braun 7.82 WARR
5. Roy Halladay 7.59 WARR
6. Joey Votto 7.35 WARR
7. Adrian Gonzalez 7.16 WARR
8. Robinson Cano 7.10 WARR
9. Justin Verlander 6.98 WARR
10. Matt Kemp 5.91 WARR
11. Miguel Cabrera 6.59 WARR
12. Clayton Kershaw 6.55 WARR
13. Alex Gordon 6.37 WARR
14. CC Sabathia 6.13 WARR
15.0 Ian Kinsler 6.08 WARR

Rest of the top 20
16. Mike Napoli
17. Evan Longoria
18. Jered Weaver
19. Andrew McCuthchen
20. Cole Hamels

Comment: Discussion for voting this year's vote was very refreshing. Although there were some differences of opinion and frustration ievident, I believe some important issues were brought forward.
   4. ThickieDon Posted: January 24, 2018 at 08:59 AM (#5612247)
1. Bautista - bat/OBP too strong to let defense/positional adjustment affect ranking
2. Kemp
3. Ellsbury
4. Braun - post-season bump
5. M. Cabrera - post-season bump

6. Halladay
7. Zobrist
8. Pedroia
9. Votto
10. Cliff Lee

11. Granderson
12. A. Gonzalez
13. Kinsler - post-season bump
14. Verlander - league-leading 251 IP (seventh most since 2000)
15. Napoli - 2nd in wRC+; post-season bump

Gordon, Kershaw and Longoria just missed.

Tulowitzki would have made it had he not been injured for 15 games.

Berkman's big bat and Beltran and Reyes's all-around good play round out my top 20-ish.
   5. Carl Goetz Posted: January 25, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5613202)
I'll stick with my prelim ballot.
1)Cliff Lee(9.1) - Great year but it still takes offense contribution to push him ahead of Halladay.
2)Roy Halladay(8.7) - Best Pitcher of 2011 (only pitching)
3)Matt Kemp(8.5) - Defensive regression helps him. Just a fantastic year. He should have beaten Braun in MVP vote.
4)Justin Verlander(8.4) - Big year for pitchers.
5)Jose Bautista (8.2) - Another guy helped by defensive regression.
6)Jacoby Ellsbury(7.7) - One of his best years.
7)Ryan Braun (7.6) - Big year that was fun to watch in Milwaukee; even if chemically fueled.
8)Miguel Cabrera(7.7) - Big stick and easily the best 1B.
9)Dustin Pedroia (6.8) - Virtually tied with Zobrist, but gave Pedroia the nod due to more of his value being on offense.
10)Ben Zobrist(6.8) - Despite this downgrade, still a great year.
11)CC Sabathia(7.4) - The big man was closing in on the end of his prime, but still put up a big season here.
12)Clayton Kershaw(7.2) - I prefer not to be this pitcher heavy, but seems to be a top-heavy season for pitchers.
13)Evan Longoria (6.0) - Pretty confident he's the best 3B.
14)Adrian Gonzalez(6.1) - Little better than Votto for 2nd best 1B.
15)Curtis Granderson(6.1)

Others considered but not ranked: Jerad Weaver, Cole Hamels, Joey Votto, Ian Kinsler, Robinson Cano, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Pablo Sandoval, Adrian Beltre, Alex Gordon
I have David Ortiz as best DH and David Robertson as best reliever but neither was a serious consideration for top 15 ranking.
   6. DL from MN Posted: January 25, 2018 at 01:33 PM (#5613281)
15. Josh Hamilton


Looks like he won't be the only MMP to only appear on ballots in one season
   7. Chris Fluit Posted: January 25, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5613564)
2011 MMP Ballot

1. Jose Bautista, RF/3B, Toronto Blue Jays: 182 OPS+ leads the majors, still manages a handful of games at third for positional bonus
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: 179 OPS+ is 2nd, -3 fielding
3. Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers: 172 ERA+ and 250 IP are both tops in the majors
4. Matt Kemp, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers: best player in the NL with 172 OPS+ and 141 Runs Created
5. Roy Halladay, P, Philadelphia Phillies
6. Clayton Kershaw, P, Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Cliff Lee, P, Philadelphia Phillies: 3 NL aces with 163, 161 and 160 ERA+ and 233, 233 and 232 IP respectively
8. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers: 2nd in NL with 166 OPS+ and 138 RC
9. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: he won the MVP in 2008 but this was his career year with a 131 OPS+, 122 RC and +18 fielding
10. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox
11. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Boston Red Sox: two more BoSox; both are top five in the AL in OPS+ and RC while adding strong defense
12. Jered Weaver, P, Los Angeles Angels: 156 ERA+ is 2nd in the AL to go along with 235 IP
13. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: 155 OPS+ and +4 fielding
14. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: 164 OPS+ and -9 fielding
15. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies: as usual, I love a SS who can hit

16. Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers: would have loved to include AA; glad to see him on at least one ballot so far
17. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
18. CC Sabathia, P, New York Yankees
19. Ben Zobrist, 2B/RF, Tampa Bay Rays
20. Ian Kennedy, P, Arizona Diamondbacks
   8. Carl Goetz Posted: January 26, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5613879)
"Comment: Discussion for voting this year's vote was very refreshing. Although there were some differences of opinion and frustration ievident, I believe some important issues were brought forward. "
I know I am one of the people who displayed frustration. I apologize to the group for it. I went a little too far down that rabbit hole and I'm not here to get worked up; I'm here to enjoy talking baseball.
   9. Eskimo3842 Posted: January 28, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5614663)
2011 MMP Ballot: (still trying to decide if I've adjusted defensive contributions in the best way from bwar, but as I am still uncertain, I'll stick with my initial rankings).

1 Cliff Lee
2 Roy Halladay
3 Justin Verlander
4 Jacoby Ellsbury
5 Ben Zobrist
6 Matt Kemp
7 Dustin Pedroia
8 Jose Bautista
9 Ryan Braun
10 Miguel Cabrera
11 Clayton Kershaw
12 CC Sabthia
13 Ian Kinsler
14 Joey Votto
15 Evan Longoria
   10. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 29, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5615082)
System review: I take an average of bWAR, fWAR, and gWAR (regressing DRA in gWAR by one-third). I add in BP catcher framing runs (also regressed by one-third) and adjust positional players by a rolling 9-year average of the median of each position's WAA (ends up similar to Dan R's replacement level adjustments - e.g. 1970's shortstops get a big boost). I adjust the resulting WAR number for the league's position/pitcher standard deviations (based upon numbers originally provided by Dr. Chaleeko). That WAR number is used in a peak-rate based salary estimator. To that salary estimation I give a postseason bonus based on cWPA in order to get a final seasonal salary.

2011 MMP ballot (number in parentheses is salary estimation/$1M):

1. Roy Halladay (17.82)
2. Ryan Braun (17.71) - NL MMPosition Player
3. Matt Kemp (17.06)
4. Cliff Lee (16.27)
5. Jose Bautista (16.15) - AL MMP
6. Jacoby Ellsbury (14.68)
7. Justin Verlander (14.11) - AL MMPitcher
8. Clayton Kershaw (13.68)
9. Miguel Cabrera (12.88)
10. Joey Votto (12.12)
11. Dustin Pedroia (12.03)
12. Ben Zobrist (11.82)
13. Adrian Gonzalez (11.51)
14. Ian Kinsler (11.48)
15. Evan Longoria (11.40)

16-25. Pablo Sandoval, Mike Napoli, Alex Gordon, Jared Weaver, Justin Upton, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Troy Tulowitzki, Cole Hamels, Yadier Molina.

2011 All-Pro team:

c- Mike Napoli
1b- Miiguel Cabrera
2b - Dustin Pedroia
3b - Evan Longoria
ss - Troy Tulowitzki
lf - Ryan Braun
cf - Matt Kemp
rf - Jose Bautista
dh - David Ortiz

sp - Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Jared Weaver
rp - David Robertson
   11. DL from MN Posted: January 29, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5615100)
adjust positional players by a rolling 9-year average of the median of each position's WAA


Can you post that data in the HoM discussion thread?
   12. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 29, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5615118)
Can you post that data in the HoM discussion thread?


No problem, DL. but just a quick clarification - did you mean just for 2011 or for all years (it's part of an excel file that has most of my HoM compilations)? - and based upon the answer to that question I will know whether to post it in the 2011 MMP discussion or the 2019 HoM discussion thread - Thanks. It's basically the same methodology Dan R used for calculating his replacement levels. But since he hasn't calculated the numbers for pre-1893 or post-2005, I just decided to come up with my own methodology, and since positional WAA by team is available back to 1871 on BBG, I used those numbers (an average of bWAA and gWAA). And like Dan R, I do make some tweaks (counting positional replacement, corner OF never comes within .4 wins of CF, 2b never within .2 wins of ss, 3b never goes below 0 as to not come too close to 1b, and DH can never equal, but never surpass 1b - I agree with Caiman that DH's are criminally undervalued - the median team DH has never had a positive WAA in the entire history of the position).
   13. DL from MN Posted: January 29, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5615151)
I am interested in all years.
   14. Michael J. Binkley's anxiety closet Posted: January 30, 2018 at 12:17 PM (#5615808)
DL-

I sent you an e-mail at a Yahoo address I had for you. If that's not your current e-mail, let me know.
   15. toratoratora Posted: February 01, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5617489)
Final ballot. Notes that I also enjoyed the lengthy discussion this year.

I use a blend of WAR systems, as many as I can find. I then weight based on placement. 1st place gets 10 points, 2nd gets 9, 3rd gets 8 and so on.

1-Bautista: 182 OPS+, 43 HR, 132 BB, 1.056 OPS, decent baserunner, meh fielder
2-Kemp: 39 HR, 40 SB, 172 OPS+, 353 TB, poor fielder
3-Ellsbury: 32 HR, 39 SB, 146 OPS+, good fielder
4-Verlander: 172 ERA+, 250 k, 251 IP
5-Halladay: 163 ERA+, 233 IP, 2.20 FIP
6-Braun: 166 OPS+, 33 HR, 33 SB, good fielder, good baserunner
7-Kershaw 161 ERA+, 248k, 233 IP, 2.47 FIP
8-Lee: 160 ERA+, 238K, 232 IP
9-Miggy: 179 OPS+, 48 2b, .344 BA, 108 BB, Meh Defense at 1b
10-Zobrist: 131 OPS+, 20 HR., 19 SB, +29 rField, 92 park factor at the Trop in 2011
11-Pedroia: 21 HR, 37 2b, 26 SB, .307 BA, 131 OPS+, +18 rField at the pivot, good baserunner
12-Votto: 155 OPS+, 29 HR, 110 BB, Decent fielder (+4 rField)
13-A-Gon: .338 BA, 27 HR, 345 TB, +12 rField, 155 OPS+, poor baserunner
14-McCann: 24 HR, 122 OPS+, Catcher bump jumps him up in the ballot
15(tie)-Weaver 156 ERA+, 235 IP
15(tie)-Prince: 164 OPS+, 38 HR, 107 BB, 32 IBB, awful fielding and awful baserunning pull him down on the ballot

The best of the rest
Kinsler, Cano, Gordon, Upton, Grandy, Longoria
   16. DL from MN Posted: February 01, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5617517)
15(tie)-Weaver 156 ERA+, 235 IP
15(tie)-Prince: 164 OPS+, 38 HR, 107 BB, 32 IBB, awful fielding and awful baserunning pull him down on the ballot


I have to break the tie so I chose Weaver. Let me know if you would prefer Fielder
   17. caiman Posted: February 02, 2018 at 02:11 AM (#5617759)
Here's My RPA highest rated, with the number of runs produced above the average:

1. Jose Bautista 49.61 runs
2. Ryan Braun 49.48 runs
3. Jacoby Ellsbury 46.46 runs
4. Matt Kemp 46.23 runs
5. Miguel Cabrera 42.53 runs
6. Alex Gordon 39.94 runs
7. Lance Berkman 37.23 runs
8. Andrew McCutchen 32.79 runs
9. Clayton Kershaw 32.32 runs
10. Joey Votto 32.28 runs
11. Shane Victorino 32.06 runs
12. Justin Verlander 31.31 runs
13. James Shields 31.12 runs
14. Justin Upton 31.01 runs
15A. Mike Napoli 29.95 runs
15B. Prince Fielder 29.95 runs

17. Curtis Granderson 28.40 runs
18. Dustin Pedroia 27.87 runs
19. Giancarlo Stanton 27.78 runs
20. Jose Reyes 27.57 runs

21. Carlos Beltran 27.27 runs
22. Roy Halladay 27.23 runs
23. Jered Weaver 27.04 runs
   18. Tubbs is Bobby Grich when he flys off the handle Posted: February 05, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5619770)
Final ballot-no postseason credit but some small credit for playing for a Division-contender
1. Verlander
2. Kemp--I'm remember him saying something to the effect of "I just missed a 40/40 season but can do a 50/50." We're still waiting... Great season, nevertheless
3. Ellsbury--no errors all year in CF
4. Kershaw
5. Lee-bat nudges him past Roy
6. Halladay-3 pitchers sandwiched together, they were all extremely close. I don't usually like to have pitchers so close but that's the way it turned out
7. Cabrera
8. Braun
9. Bautista-top 9 were very close and then a drop to #10
10.Pedroia-leadership & reputation pushes him past A-Gone
11.A Gonzalez-I really thought going from PetCo to Fenway would solidify this guy as a HOFer
12.Granderson-run/RBI machine despite lower BA
13.Gordon
14.Weaver
15.Zobrist -I love Zobrist but discounted his glove, though defensive flexibility got him the final spot

Honorable mention-Lance Berkman wasnt near my top 15 but he had one of the most underrated postseasons. He seemed to set the stage for a lot of the big moments from Freese and others. His rebound 2011 set him up for a HOF push but then he got injured and/or fulfilled with his career and likely will be one and done on the ballot
   19. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 05, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5619981)
Official 2011 MMP Ballot (no postseason bonuses):

1) Jose Bautista: Best ML player and right fielder.
2) Matt Kemp: Best NL player and ML center fielder.
3) Ryan Braun: Best ML left fielder.
4) Jacoby Ellsbury: Best AL center fielder.
5) Miguel Cabrera: Best ML first baseman.
6) Joey Votto: Best NL first baseman.
7) Prince Fielder
8) Adrian Gonzalez
9) Lance Berkman: Best NL right fielder.
10) Curtis Granderson
11) Justin Verlander: Best ML pitcher.
12) Dustin Pedroia: Best ML second baseman.
13) Jered Weaver
14) Roy Halladay: Best NL pitcher
15) Justin Upton
   20. bjhanke Posted: February 06, 2018 at 06:22 AM (#5620157)
This is Brock Hanke’s ballot for 2011. It’s quick and dirty because I’ve been sick and dirty. All I’ve done is my compilation of Win Share and WAR ordinals. If someone had a great postseason, well, I apologize to him. Assuming the player in question actually reads these. Anyway, here are the Top 15:

1. Jose Bautista
2. Matt Kemp
3. Ryan Braun
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Miguel Cabrera
6. Ben Zobrist
7. Justin Verlander
8. Dustin Pedroia
9. Joey Votto
10. Adrian Gonzalez
11. Justin Upton
12. Robinson Cano
13. Roy Halladay
14. Ian Kinsler
15. Cliff Lee (no one who has ranked first in either WS or WAR has ever ended up ranked so low before. Cliff has the highest WAR, but ranks 37th by Win Shares)
   21. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5621010)
Last day to vote
   22. DL from MN Posted: February 07, 2018 at 04:01 PM (#5621357)
Election is over
   23. Chris Fluit Posted: February 07, 2018 at 07:47 PM (#5621557)
good turnout

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