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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Most Meritorious Player: 2012 Discussion

Jumping ahead to the most recently completed season. I remember it as if it were last week.

Player			SH WS		BBR WAR
Mike Trout		37.9		10.7
Buster Posey		36.6		7.2
Andrew McCutchen	37.5		7.1
Robinson Cano		34.4		8.2
Miguel Cabrera		34.2		6.9
Ryan Braun		29.9		6.8
Yadier Molina		28.6		6.8
Ben Zobrist		27.9		5.6
Adam Jones		28.1		3.4
Melky Cabrera		26.3		4.7
Joey Votto		24.3		5.6
Chase Headley		32.9		6.0
David Wright		31.3		6.8
Aaron Hill		27.0		4.6
Darwin Barney		14.0		4.7
Prince Fielder		28.4		4.5
Edwin Encarnacion	28.2		4.5
Albert Pujols		24.6		4.7
Adrian Beltre		27.8		6.7
Josh Hamilton		25.0		3.3
Angel Pagan		26.7		4.0
Marco Scutaro		20.7		2.0
Jose Reyes		22.1		2.8
Erick Aybar		17.5		4.0
Carlos Ruiz		24.7		4.4
Matt Wieters		23.9		3.2
Joe Mauer		22.7		4.1


Pitcher 		SH WS		BBR WAR
Justin Verlander	22.5		7.3
Johnny Cueto		21.3		5.3
Clayton Kershaw		19.7		6.7
R. A. Dickey		19.4		5.5
David Price		18.7		6.4
Chris Sale		18.3		5.7
Gio Gonzalez		17.2		4.3
Matt Harrison		18.8		6.1
Kris Medlen		17.6		4.5
Kyle Lohse		16.2		3.6
Jake Peavy		16.5		5.0
Hiroki Kuroda		17.0		5.2
Cole Hamels		17.2		4.8
Aroldis Chapman		19.4		3.6
Fernando Rodney		18.6		3.7
Craig Kimbrel		17.9		3.2

 

DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2012 at 02:44 PM | 47 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2012 at 02:57 PM (#4289400)
2012 Prelim

1) Trout
2) Posey (catcher's bonus)
3) Cano
4) Verlander
5) McCutchen
6) Yadier Molina
7) Miguel Cabrera
8) Kershaw
9) Braun
10) Price
11) Votto
12) Harrison
13) Wright
14) Beltre
15) Zobrist

16-20) Melky, Dickey, Cueto, Sale, Kuroda
   2. DL from MN Posted: October 31, 2012 at 03:01 PM (#4289406)
A reminder on the rules - vote for 15, minor league credit is okay if you do an MLE, postseason credit is okay. No credit for the all-star game or spring training.
   3. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: October 31, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4289442)
2012 Prelim

1) Trout -- Don't see this changing. Like Mauer a few years ago, far outpaces the league in almost every category, including defense, which makes up for missed time.
2) Posey -- catcher bonus
3) Mi. Cabrera -- essentially first among equals b/w him, Cano and McCutchen; gets a narrative bonus for Triple Crown, and b/c I'm more confident in hitting stats than others
4) Robby Cano -- Great ballplayer having one of his best seasons; easily could have won this thing in other years -- if he'd had this season last year, I'd have voted for him
5) Andrew McCutchen -- breakout season; hope to see more like it.
6) Yadi Molina -- catcher bonus
7) Verlander
8) Adam Jones -- I flat don't believe dWAR in this case
9) Clayton Kershaw -- NL's best pitcher
10) Ryan Braun
11) Ben Zobrist -- gets a bonus for versatility. I could be convinced to move him higher.
12) David Wright
13) David Price
14) Chase Headley
15) Adrian Beltre

Most likely to move up with good arguments: Zobrist; Wright; Beltre.
Two two spots pretty much locked.
#3-#7 borderline interchangeable.
   4. TomH Posted: October 31, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4289447)
(I asked this once before; I apologize if it was answered but I missed it)

Does SH WS adjust for
1. AL v NL leaguequality
2. the fact that the 9-man lineup in the AL reduces per-batter hitting WS by 8%-10%-ish?


   5. DanG Posted: November 03, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4291456)
The customary look at relievers:

Rk              Player WAR ERASV    WPA  WHIP GF GS   IP Age  Tm Lg  G W L  ERA
1      Fernando Rodney 3.7  634 48  5.119 0.777 65  0 74.2  35 TBR AL 76 2 2 0.60
2      Aroldis Chapman 3.6  282 38  2.949 0.809 52  0 71.2  24 CIN NL 68 5 5 1.51
3        Craig Kimbrel 3.2  399 42  4.341 0.654 56  0 62.2  24 ATL NL 63 3 1 1.01
4       Rafael Soriano 2.6  185 42  2.992 1.167 54  0 67.2  32 NYY AL 69 2 1 2.26
5    Rafael Betancourt 2.6  171 31  0.079 1.127 53  0 57.2  37 COL NL 60 1 4 2.81
6            Ryan Cook 2.6  191 14  2.396 0.941 23  0 73.1  25 OAK AL 71 6 2 2.09
7           Nate Jones 2.5  182  0 
-0.069 1.381 11  0 71.2  26 CHW AL 65 8 0 2.39
8          Darren ODay 2.5  185  0  3.434 0.940 10  0 67.0  29 BAL AL 69 7 1 2.28
9          Pedro Strop 2.4  173  3  1.094 1.342 17  0 66.1  27 BAL AL 70 5 2 2.44
10        Matt Belisle 2.3  129  3 
-0.328 1.363 14  0 80.0  32 COL NL 80 3 8 3.71
11         Jim Johnson 2.3  170 51  5.256 1.019 63  0 68.2  29 BAL AL 71 2 1 2.49
12      Kelvin Herrera 2.3  175  3  1.976 1.186 10  0 84.1  22 KCR AL 76 4 3 2.35
13        Wilton Lopez 2.2  185 10  0.974 1.040 28  0 66.1  28 HOU NL 64 6 3 2.17
14       Grant Balfour 2.2  157 24  2.834 0.924 34  0 74.2  34 OAK AL 75 3 2 2.53
15      Vinnie Pestano 2.1  152  2  3.481 1.100 13  0 70.0  27 CLE AL 70 3 3 2.57
16       Josh Roenicke 2.0  148  1  0.215 1.444 14  0 88.2  29 COL NL 63 4 2 3.25
17          Joe Nathan 1.9  163 37  1.702 1.057 62  0 64.1  37 TEX AL 66 3 5 2.80
18       Kenley Jansen 1.9  162 25  1.590 0.846 40  0 65.0  24 LAD NL 65 5 3 2.35
19       Craig Stammen 1.9  169  1  2.346 1.200 15  0 88.1  28 WSN NL 59 6 1 2.34
20       Darren Oliver 1.9  207  2  1.535 1.024 11  0 56.2  41 TOR AL 62 3 4 2.06
21         Robbie Ross 1.9  206  0  1.532 1.200  9  0 65.0  23 TEX AL 58 6 0 2.22 
   6. lieiam Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:07 AM (#4291470)
Here's my prelim (and probable final list).

1 TROUT, MIKE 10000
2 POSEY, BUSTER 9180
3 MCCUTCHEN, ANDREW 8270
4 CANO, ROBINSON 8085
5 CABRERA, MIGUEL 7680
6 WRIGHT, DAVID 7331
7 HEADLEY, CHASE 7281
8 MOLINA, YADIER 7256
9 BRAUN, RYAN 7235
10 BELTRE, ADRIAN 6540
11 VERLANDER, JUSTIN 6415
12 ZOBRIST, BEN 6043
13 RUIZ, CARLOS 6028
14 VOTTO, JOEY 5921
15 HEYWARD, JASON 5813
16 FIELDER, PRINCE 5771
17 ENCARNACION, EDWIN 5768
18 BOURN, MICHAEL 5671
19 RAMIREZ, ARAMIS 5661
20 CABRERA, MELKY 5643
21 HILL, AARON 5622
22 KERSHAW, CLAYTON 5514
23 GORDON, ALEX 5373
24 CUETO, JOHNNY 5301
25 PRADO, MARTIN 5252
26 PRICE, DAVID 5239
27 MAUER, JOE 5223
28 PAGAN, ANGEL 5189
29 JONES, ADAM 5188
30 HUNTER, TORII 5119
   7. DanG Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:06 AM (#4291477)
minor league credit is okay
For which Trout deserves credit, spending most of April in AAA. He was 403/467/623 in 20 games.
   8. Mr. C Posted: November 04, 2012 at 05:17 PM (#4292809)
Preliminary Ballot

WAR framework, with a higher baseline replacement level than "normal", resulting in a reduction in replacement wins (Wins Above Reduced Replacement). All fielding numbers used are an average of UZR and DRS.

I don't know if remarkable is the right word, but I am certainly impressed with the number of "young" players who are included in the top performances of 2012.

1) Mike Trout -- 9.45 WARR An exceptional year particularly for a rookie. No minor league adjustment. He didn't need it.
2) Robinson Cano -- 7.05 WARR Put everything together this year
2) Buster Posey -- 6.95 WARR an excellent recovery from last year's injury
4) Justin Verlander --- 6.75 WARR Best season by a pitcher
5) Andrew McCutchen -- 6.20 WARR Nice to see players live up to expectations
6) David Wright --- 5.95 WARR
7) Ryan Braun --- 5.85 WARR
8) Yadier Molina -- 5.80 WARR good offensive season from best defensive catcher
9) Chase Headley --- 5.80 WARR
10) Adrian Beltre --- 5.75 WARR
11) Miguel Cabrera --- 5.70 WARR
12) David Price --- 5.65 WARR
13) Clayton Kershaw -- 5.55 WARR NL's best pitcher
14) Matt Harrison --- 5.45 WARR
15) Johnny Cueto --- 5.2 WARR

Rest of top 20
Michael Bourne
Chris Sale
Joey Votto Excellent rate stats,but time missed to injury kept him off the ballot
Aramis Ramirez
RA Dickey



   9. Chris Fluit Posted: November 07, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4297369)
2012 Prelim- AL Only

1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: 171 OPS+, 138 runs created
2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers: 165 OPS+, 139 runs created- the full season for Cabrera shows up in his slightest of leads in runs created
3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: the real debate isn't between Cabrera and Trout for first but between Cabrera and Cano for second; Cabrera beats Cano by a single point in my system
4. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers: a big glove (+13 fielding runs) at a glove position pushes him past most of the big hitters
5. Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers: 160 ERA+ in 238 innings, the top pitcher in the AL
6. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers: 152 OPS+ and 128 runs created, only -4 fielding
7. Ben Zobrist, RF/SS/2B, Tampa Bay Rays: I'm not sure I'm happy with Zobrist's ranking; he was an above average fielder in RF and a below average one at SS and 2B yet he ends up with a healthy positional bonus for moving around; I may have to look at it again
8. Edwin Encarnacion, DH, Toronto Blue Jays: 152 OPS+, 123 runs created
9. Joe Mauer, C/DH/1B, Minnesota Twins: half a catcher bonus is good enough for the AL top ten; might not be enough for the combined ballot's top 15
10. Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals: a very quiet season
11. David Price, P, Tampa Bay Rays: 149 ERA+ in 211 innings
12. Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: we should all have "bad years" that are still among the best in the business
13. Josh Hamilton, LF/CF, Texas Rangers: remember when we thought Hamilton might win the Triple Crown, not Cabrera?
14. Billy Butler, DH, Kansas City Royals: 140 OPS+ and 113 runs created but hurt by a DH penalty
15. Francisco Rodney, RP, Tampa Bay Rays: That 0.60 ERA is pretty crazy! But you're not going to crack the ballot with 74 innings.
   10. DL from MN Posted: November 08, 2012 at 10:19 AM (#4297880)
Does SH WS adjust for


Best way to get an answer is probably pinging seamheads.com
   11. bjhanke Posted: November 09, 2012 at 09:53 AM (#4298750)
As you know, I really like the MMP project. I'll be back in 1978. However, this year, not only am I in the middle of HoM analysis, but I find that I'm too close to the season to get the perspective I want when I vote. It's just too soon for me to be sure I'm getting over personal biases and/or memories. And I don't have any extra time to do multiple analysis passes, to work through the possible biases. So, just so no one waits for me at the last minute, I am going to have to, with regrets, pass on this year. Sorry. - BrocK Hanke
   12. DL from MN Posted: November 09, 2012 at 10:00 AM (#4298755)
I'm guessing we do the election in mid-December. I don't want to conflict with HoM voting. 1978 will happen in January.
   13. TomH Posted: November 09, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4299285)
Thanks DL. I did ask them, and they pointed me to the glossary

http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/glossary.php

which explains differences in original BJ WS and what is on their site.

No league quality OR DH adjustment is made. Both of which I personally think are important.
   14. DL from MN Posted: November 12, 2012 at 06:31 PM (#4300898)
Gotta run some more names through the system but this is after crunching numbers, not just picking names off the list

1) Trout, Mike
2) Posey, Buster
3) Molina, Yadier (my biggest surprise)
4) Cano, Robinson
5) Verlander, Justin
6) McCutchen, Andrew
7) Cabrera, Miguel
8) Wright, David
9) Beltre, Adrian
10) Kershaw, Clayton
11) Braun, Ryan
12) Price, David
13) Harrison, Matt
14) Headley, Chase
15) Bourn, Michael

16-20) Sale, Chris; Cueto, Johnny; Zobrist, Ben; Dickey, RA; Gordon, Alex

No postseason yet
   15. DL from MN Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4301358)
FYI - TR Sullivan is on the Hall of Fame Veteran's Committee and is interested in what we think. Here's the list of candidates:

Executives: Sam Breadon, Jacob Ruppert, Alfred Reach

Players: Bill Dahlen, Wes Ferrell, Marty Marion, Tony Mullane, Bucky Walters, Deacon White

Umpires: Hank O'Day

   16. Chris Fluit Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4301555)

Executives:
Sam Breadon: I lean "No." The Cardinals were a perennial power during his leadership but I think a lot of that credit rightly goes to Branch Rickey. I don't believe that credit is a zero-sum proposition (the owner, general manager, manager and players from one franchise might all be deserving) but I think the sharp contrast in quality between Rickey's new team (Dodgers) and old team (Cardinals) after he moved on is quite telling.

Jacob Ruppert: Yes. He built the Yankees. He brought in the best players and created a winning environment that lasted for decades. In the early years, Ruppert often served as his own team president/GM since the separate position hadn't entirely evolved yet. I'm always amazed that he's not in already.

Alfred Reach: I lean "Yes" but it's a close call. I think he has a similar case to other pioneers like Spalding and Ward who contributed as players and as entrepreneurs. However, Reach's playing days came mostly before organized league play so it's hard to know how good he really was. He was arguably the first professional player which shows that he was considered to be the best in the game at least by some.

Players:
Bill Dahlen: Yes. One of the greatest remaining omissions now that Santo and Blyleven are in. He's a top ten shortstop all-time, a defensive wizard and a deserving inductee.

Wes Ferrell: I lean "No" but I didn't join the Hall of Merit until after he was inducted. A lot of his case is wrapped up in his value as a hitter as well as a pitcher but I'd be concerned that people would look at his pitching stats alone and use them to argue for similar borderline players. I'd much rather see Bob Caruthers on the ballot as a peak pitching candidate and a clear pitcher/hitter hybrid.

Marty Marion: Absolutely not. The worst candidate on this ballot. A great glove man and that's about it. He didn't play long enough to have the career impact of a Maranville. He didn't hit well at all, plus his hitting numbers are artificially inflated because two of his top three seasons came against weakened wartime competition. He's not even Hall of Very Good if you ask me.

Tony Mullane: No. There were a lot of great pitchers in the 19th century and I don't think Mullane is the best of them. I'd take Jim McCormick ahead of him (though I suspect Mullane's lead in wins 284-265 is partly responsible for his inclusion on this ballot).

Bucky Walters: I lean "No." My gut tells me that the pennant winning Reds should be represented by more than just Lombardi and Walters has an odd combination of peak and career numbers but he's been a borderline Hall of Merit candidate.

Deacon White: I lean "Yes." He's another one who was inducted before I joined the HoM but his 19th century numbers at difficult defensive positions are incredible. People tend to look at his low career totals and dismiss White, without reckoning for the shorter seasons of the time. Based on his context and his era, White is one of the best players in the game.

Umpires:
Hank O'Day: I lean "No." I feel like I don't know enough about old-time umpires to make an informed decision but the Hall has already inducted a lot of umpires from O'Day's time period. They couldn't have all been Hall of Fame quality umps, couldn't they?

Short answer: If I had a vote, I'd go for Reach, Ruppert, Dahlen and White.


   17. Rob_Wood Posted: November 14, 2012 at 02:46 PM (#4302639)

Bill Dahlen for sure, a long long oversight.

Deacon White is very close, I would vote yes.

No on the other players.
   18. DL from MN Posted: November 15, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4303844)
So, Trout does not win MVP, Verlander does not win CYA.
   19. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 15, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4303875)
Ruppert is a clear "yes". I have less opinion on the players, but the Hall of Fame without Ruppert really isn't a Hall of Fame at all.
   20. DL from MN Posted: November 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM (#4305497)
Lots of second guessers at BBTF on this topic. Unfortunately it looks like few of them are willing to stick their neck out.
   21. Chris Fluit Posted: November 19, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4306215)
2012- NL only

1. Buster Posey
2. Ryan Braun
3. Andrew McCutchen
4. Yadier Molina
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. David Wright
7. Johnny Cueto
8. RA Dickey
9. Chase Headley
10. Joey Votto
11. Craig Kimbrel
12. Aramis Ramirez/Aaron Hill
   22. Chris Fluit Posted: November 19, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4306238)
2012 Full Prelim

1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels: 171 OPS+ combined with stellar defense in center field (+21 fielding runs)

2. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants: 172 OPS+ to lead majors, plus partial catcher credit (he spent some time at 1B)

3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers: an outstanding season, 165 OPS+ and 139 runs created, but not the best this year

4. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees: +15 fielding runs at a tough defensive position and 149 OPS+

5. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers: second best position player in the NL, which was probably also the case the year before when he won the MVP over Kemp

6. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates

7. Justin Verlander, P, Detroit Tigers: after running the NL, I realized I was underrating pitchers; the new pitching adjustment helped Verlander leapfrog Beltre

8. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers: his all-around game makes him more valuable than most; a 137 OPS+, 122 runs created and +13 fielding runs

9. Clayton Kershaw, P, Los Angeles Dodgers: Dickey is the better story but statistically, Kershaw had the better year

10. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets

11. Johnny Cueto, P, Cincinnati Reds

12. RA Dickey, P, New York Mets: Dickey had the better ERA but Cueto's better ERA+ makes sense considering the park factors of Great American Ballpark and CitiField

13. David Price, P, Tampa Bay Rays: the big beneficiary of my late adjustment to pitchers, Price jumps from 11th to 6th in the Al

14. Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres: I don't use it in my system but I'm impressed that Headley led the NL in RBI while playing in Petco Park (or whatever it's called now)

15. Prince Fielder, 1B, Detroit Tigers

and the next five:
16. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds- impressive in only 111 games
17. Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta Braves- he was pretty good
18. Edwin Encarnacion, DH, Toronto Blue Jays
19. Ben Zobrist, RF/SS/2B, Tampa Bay Rays- flipped double E and Zobrist from the prelim, not that it matters
20. Jake Peavy, P, Chicago White Sox

I'll be vacation over Thanksgiving. Depending on when the ballot thread opens and closes, could someone please move this over for me? Thanks in advance.

   23. DL from MN Posted: November 21, 2012 at 10:30 AM (#4307401)
We'll probably vote 12/10 - 12/19
   24. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: November 21, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4307548)
FYI - TR Sullivan is on the Hall of Fame Veteran's Committee and is interested in what we think. Here's the list of candidates:


I think it's a certainty that Ruppert and Dahlen deserve entry and that would be my ballot. I don't remember the rules of the VC so if I had to vote for more I would go Reach then White in that order.
   25. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2012 at 10:13 AM (#4317517)
Postseason numbers for top candidates

AL Wild Card
Adrian Beltre and Josh Hamilton - 0 for 4

NL Wild Card
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
YMolina 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0

Heyward 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .400 .600 0 0
Bourn 5 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0
Prado 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0

Kimbrel 1.0IP 0H 0R 1K
   26. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4317581)
NLDS

Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
YMolina 17 3 2 0 0 0 1 5 1 .118 .348 .118 .465 0 0

Desmond 19 2 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 .368 .368 .421 .789 0 0

Posey 19 3 4 0 0 2 5 3 4 .211 .318 .526 .844
Pagan 20 3 3 1 0 1 4 2 3 .150 .217 .350 .567

Votto 18 3 7 0 0 0 0 4 5 .389 .500 .389 .889


Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Lohse 1 1 1.29 0 0 0 0 7.0 2 1 1 5 0.429

Gonzalez 2 2 4.50 0 0 0 0 10.0 6 5 11 10 1.700
Zimmermann 2 1 11.25 0 1 0 0 4.0 7 5 0 5 1.750

Cueto 1 1 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 1 0.000
Chapman 3 0 3.00 0 0 0 0 3.0 2 1 2 3 1.333
   27. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4317678)
ALDS

Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Cano 22 1 2 2 0 0 4 1 3 .091 .130 .182 .312 0 0

AJones 23 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 .087 .087 .087 .174 0 0

Cabrera 20 1 5 2 0 0 1 1 1 .250 .318 .350 .668 0 0
Fielder 21 1 4 0 0 1 2 1 2 .190 .227 .333 .561 0 0

Cespedes 19 1 6 1 0 0 2 2 2 .316 .381 .368 .749 2 0

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Kuroda 1 1 2.16 0 0 0 0 8.1 5 2 1 3 0.720

Verlander 2 2 0.56 2 0 0 1 16.0 7 1 5 22 0.750
   28. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4317685)
World Series

Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS
Posey 15 1 4 0 0 1 3 1 5 .267 .313 .467 .779 0 0
Pagan 16 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 4 .125 .176 .250 .426 1 0

Cabrera 13 1 3 0 0 1 3 3 4 .231 .375 .462 .837 0 0
Fielder 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 .071 .133 .071 .205 0 0

Pitcher G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H ER BB SO WHIP
Verlander 1 1 11.25 0 1 0 0 4.0 6 5 1 4 1.750
   29. DL from MN Posted: December 05, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4317699)
I'd say only Posey, Verlander and Votto justify any postseason bonus for my ballot. Cabrera wasn't awful but didn't add much.
   30. DL from MN Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4322970)
fra paulo - are you available to post results next Thursday? I think we should start balloting.
   31. fra paolo Posted: December 12, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4323526)
Yes, I'm finished with Wednesday-night lectures for this term, and won't be doing it next term, so we can go back to Wednesdays if you want.
   32. Yardape Posted: December 16, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4326210)
Prelim - it won't likely change, and I'll post in the ballot thread in a day or two.

1. Mike Trout
2. Miguel Cabrera Closer than I initially would have thought. Heck of a hitting season from Cabrera. Still, defense pushes Trout ahead, and he's further if you calculate an MLE.
3. Buster Posey Some catcher bonus makes his strong season strong.
4. Andrew McCutchen
5. Robinson Cano
6. Chase Headley An under-appreciated season, IMO.
7. Ryan Braun
8. Adrian Beltre
9. Yadier Molina Maybe I'm not giving him enough defensive credit. I'm still really impressed with how Molina had developed into a near-MVP level player.
10. David Wright Great season for third basemen; Wright is the fourth on my ballot.
11. Matt Cain I think his postseason pushes him to the top of the pitching heap.
12. Justin Verlander He had a great postseason too, at least before the WS.
13. Aaron Hill This season flew completely under my radar, but Hill had a good one.
14. Joe Mauer Mauer continues his tremendous career, although he's behind Posey and Molina in 2012.
15. Michael Bourn
   33. Kiko Sakata Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:03 PM (#4327366)
I updated my Player won-lost records for 2012 using Retrosheet play-by-play data. I calculate these records two ways: tied to team wins (pWins) and context-neutral (eWins). The links there are to top 25 lists for Wins, wins over positional average (WOPA), and wins over replacement level (WORL). These numbers include postseason games (just weighted the same as any other game). I consider both WOPA and WORL, with a bit of a preference for WOPA and consider pWins and eWins about equally. I also sometimes give a bonus to a player for being the best in the majors at his position, although I'm not sure there are any examples of this on my ballot below. I give out catcher bonuses (catcher defense in my system is mostly SB/CS and WP/PB, no pitch-framing or game-calling). I wrote up a little article about the 2012 season in Player won-lost records if anybody's interested.

Anyway, here's my ballot. I'll hold off on putting it in the ballot thread until Wed or so just in case I have a change of heart and/or somebody else convinces me to change something. The numbers here are pWins - pLosses, pWOPA, pWORL.

1. Mike Trout, 22.5 - 15.5, 3.2, 5.0 - He's behind Cano and possibly Posey just taking Player won-lost records as given. I bumped him for two reasons: (1) my system isn't all that impressed with his defense (he's about average) which may be under-rating him, and (2) as I understand the rules of the MMP project, he's entitled to a month of minor-league credit.
2. Buster Posey, 20.6 - 13.8, 3.3, 4.9 - postseason credit and a catcher bonus push him ahead of Cano.
3. Robinson Cano, 24.0 - 18.7, 3.0, 5.1 - Based on Player won-lost records, you can make a case for him over Trout as AL MVP, although that rests in large part on Player won-lost records thinking Trout's an average defender.
4. Justin Verlander, 18.7 - 13.4, 3.1, 4.7 - postseason (pre-WS) pushes him past Kershaw for top pitcher slot.
5. Clayton Kershaw, 15.0 - 11.3, 2.6, 3.9 - best regular-season pitcher in MLB.
6. Miguel Cabrera, 24.4 - 19.6, 2.3, 4.4 - the first Triple Crown of my lifetime might have been the coolest thing to happen in the 2012 season; I'm just not sure that "cool" translates to "meritorious".
7. Ryan Braun, 21.9 - 18.1, 1.3, 3.3 - has a case for #1 based only on eWOPA/eWORL (context-neutral).
8. Andrew McCutchen, 22.0 - 18.0, 1.4, 3.4 - he also looks a lot better in eWOPA/eWORL.
9. Yadier Molina, 16.4 - 12.1, 2.1, 3.5 - catcher bonus to get up this high.
10. Chase Headley, 22.5 - 16.8, 2.4, 4.3 - I agree with Yardape in #32.
11. Yoenis Cespedes, 20.2 - 13.4, 3.2, 4.8 - Cespedes looks much better in context (pWOPA/pWORL) than context-neutral (eWOPA/eWORL).
12. Adrian Beltre, 20.7 - 14.6, 2.9, 4.6 - 2012 was a very good year for 3B.
13. Adam Jones, 24.4 - 18.8, 2.5, 4.6 - like Cespedes, Jones looks much better in context. The Orioles out-performed their Pythag by a lot and Player won-lost records suggest that Jones was a big reason why (factoid: Jones drove in or scored the winning run in 9 of the Orioles' 16 extra-inning victories).
14. Aramis Ramirez, 20.9 - 15.1, 2.5, 4.2 - another player who looks much better in pWOPA/pWORL than eWOPA/eWORL; also the 4th third baseman on my ballot.
15. Kris Medlen, 9.0 - 4.6, 2.4, 3.2 - makes up for a lack of quantity with exceptional quality.
   34. OCF Posted: December 17, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4327390)
RA+ pitching equivalent records:

Verlander 18-9
Price 16-8
Harrison 16-8
Sale 14-7
Peavy 15-9
Kuroda 15-9
Weaver 13-8

Cueto 16-8 (bad hitter)
Kershaw 17-8 (OK hitter)
Dickey 17-9
Gonzalez 14-8 (bad hitter)
Hamels 15-9 (fairly good hitter)
Cain 15-10 (OK hitter)
   35. DL from MN Posted: December 21, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4330128)
Kiko - where do you have Wright? You're the first ballot to leave him off.
   36. DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2013 at 11:38 AM (#4358209)
We never did our music discussion for 2012 so I thought I'd kick it off. It's harder to do a recent music discussion because there are so many gaps for stuff I haven't heard yet but I guess that's why you discuss - to fill in the gaps with other people's favorites. Anyway, here's stuff I liked from 2012

Divine Fits - Divine Fits
Tame Impala - Lonerism
Japandroids - Celebration Rock
Bob Mould - Silver Age
Walkmen - Heaven
Alabama Shakes - Boys & Girls
Dinosaur Jr. - I Bet on Sky
Fun - Some Nights
Springsteen - Wrecking Ball
Howler - America Give Up

singles
Django Django - Default
Atoms for Peace - Default
Magnetic Fields - Andrew in Drag
Superchunk - This Summer
MIA - Bad Girls

Stuff I haven't checked out yet - Kendrick Lamar, Swans, GSYBE, Death Grips, Azealia Banks, Cloud Nothings, a bunch of other stuff I'm certain

I was going to throw Skrillex on here but it turns out it's mostly 2011. I'm thoroughly sick of the Avett Brothers, Mumford & Sons and the rest of the bluegrass revival and wish they would just go away.
   37. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: January 30, 2013 at 11:59 AM (#4358236)
Divine Fits - Divine Fits
Tame Impala - Lonerism
Japandroids - Celebration Rock
Bob Mould - Silver Age
Walkmen - Heaven
Alabama Shakes - Boys & Girls
Dinosaur Jr. - I Bet on Sky
Fun - Some Nights
Springsteen - Wrecking Ball
Howler - America Give Up


I like Divine Fits. Haven't heard much of the rest but I'll check them out. I'll also suggest Jack White "Blunderbuss"
   38. DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2013 at 12:18 PM (#4358254)
I've heard Blunderbuss but it isn't doing much for me. Good record but probably not one I'd purchase.
   39. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: January 30, 2013 at 12:32 PM (#4358261)
I've heard Blunderbuss but it isn't doing much for me. Good record but probably not one I'd purchase.


I don't buy music anymore, per se. I subscribe to Rhapsody, and for $14.99/month, I get unlimited subscription downloads to my iPod. So in checking out new music, the only investment I make is in my time.
   40. DL from MN Posted: January 30, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4358291)
Haven't heard much of the rest


How did you avoid Fun?
   41. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: January 30, 2013 at 01:25 PM (#4358313)
How did you avoid Fun?


Don't know. I don't know anyone who ever listened to them, and my local stations don't play anything like it. I recently got a new car, and it comes with Sirius XM, so I'm being exposed to more modern music on the indie and Alt stations. That's how I recently discovered Muse, Divine Fits, and Jack White. Just downloaded Some Nights and am listening now. Good stuff, thanks.
   42. lieiam Posted: February 02, 2013 at 10:59 AM (#4360636)
I'm still working my way through various best of lists (and bands I know already) for best of 2012. So far, in an approximate order of what has impressed me (I hardly own any of these... most of these are from hearing these on Spotify). I'm going to be lazy and just list the bands.
Maximo Park, Diiv, Spotlight Kid, Best Coast, Seapony, Allo Darlin', Garlands, Breathless, By The Sea, Nada Surf, Strawberry Whiplash, Baby Grand, Lightships, Neil Halstead.

So far I've only really listened to stuff from lists by people I'm familiar with. (Big Takeover, Dagger, Chickfactor, etc.) I haven't even started going through bigger stuff like Under The Radar, NME, etc.

@DL from MN- the only one on your list I've listened to so far is Bob Mould, which I do like (just not enough on a few listens to make my list). And (regarding your comment in post 40) I've managed to miss Fun as well. I don't even recognize their name (unlike most on your list).

   43. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2013 at 11:30 AM (#4360656)
Blunderbuss and Some Nights (by Fun.) are my two favorite albums of the year. I'd have trouble picking one over the other, even though they're very different from each other.

Mark Knopfler's Privateering is probably third. It's a double album he released in the UK but it's only available so far as an import here in the States. Some of his best work- and one of his most consistent albums in years despite the extra size with Seattle, I Used to Could, Kingdom of Gold, Haul Away, After the Beanstalk, Miss You Blues and, of course, the title track. For those of you who aren't familiar with the name, Knopfler was the driving force/lead guitar/lead singer in Dire Straits.

The rest of my top ten is, in no particular order, Regina Spektor's What We Saw from the Cheap Seats, Glenn Hansard's Rhythm and Repose, Matchbox 20's North, The Killers' Battle Born, Bob Dylan's Tempest, Bruce Springsteen's Wrecking Ball and Carly Rae Jepsen's Kiss (yes, I have room in my life for bubblegum pop).

Just put in an order for Bruno Mars' Unorthodox Jukebox which came out at the end of the year. If it's as good as his previous album, I might have to bump someone else from the top ten list to make room.
   44. Chris Fluit Posted: February 02, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4360666)
I thought it would be harder than that to come up with a top ten list for 2012. I'm usually a year or two behind when it comes to music, discovering 2010's best artists in 2011 and 2011's in 2012, that sort of thing. But I guess I paid more attention this past year than I realized. I'll probably still discover a few albums late and my list for 2012 will likely be different by 2014.

I also thought of one more contender for the top ten: the Hunger Games soundtrack- it's a great list of current artists like Taylor Swift, Maroon 5, the Decembrists and the Civil Wars produced by T Bone Burnett in a Appalachian style.
   45. SavoyBG Posted: February 02, 2013 at 03:55 PM (#4360792)
I'm not interested in current music, but here's one site's list of top albums and top singles from 2012, based on the ratings from the members of the site:

Top Albums of 2012

Top Singles of 2012
   46. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: February 04, 2013 at 08:30 AM (#4361975)
I'm not interested in current music,


I used to feel that way too. I kinda figured modern music was all Black Eyed Peas, Beyonce, and Lady Gaga, and had no interest. But I've recently discovered Joss Stone, Amy Winehouse, Muse, Divine Fits, Jack White, and most recently, fun. And some old favorites from times past are still making great music. Savoy Brown, who have been around since the 60's, recorded a new album in 2006 called "Voodoo Moon", which is outstanding. I'm actually discovering and enjoying the same music that my kids are, and that's kinds cool.
   47. DL from MN Posted: February 04, 2013 at 11:04 AM (#4362113)
Bob Mould, which I do like


He was great on Austin City Limits last night.

If you like Divine Fits and you haven't heard Spoon there are a bunch more records to go get.

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