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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Negro League Win Share Estimates

This falls into the category of asking someone else to do something I’m too lazy to do . . .

Does anyone have a listing of the WS estimates for all of the Negro League players? I’d love to try to slot them onto the pennants added spreadsheet as best I can, at least including their estimated career WS . . .

Also, have the estimates been based on a 154 or 162 game season? Any help would be appreciated. A typical posting that looked something like this:

Biz Mackey, 154-game base

Year BWS    FWS  Total
1920 14.0   4.1   18.1
1921 12.4   5.1   17.5
1922 19.6   3.8   23.4
1923 18.9   6.8   25.7
1924 12.9   6.5   19.4
1925 10.6   6.1   16.7
1926 11.6   8.1   19.7
1927  9.8   8.2   18.0
1928 11.7   7.5   19.2
1929  6.1   8.8   14.9
1930 11.0   7.7   18.7
1931 10.6   6.5   17.1
1932   
1933  4.6   5.6   10.2
1934  2.5   2.4    4.9
1935  0.0   4.6    4.6
1936  0.4   5.0    5.4
1937  1.8   4.0    5.8
1938  1.2   3.1    4.3
1939  2.9   3.7    6.6
1940  1.5   2.3    3.8
1941  1.4   2.4    3.8
tot 165.5 112.3  277.8

Would be phenomenal. If we could gather as many of these in one place as possible for easy reference, that’d be great. Chris (and others), if you’d like to post your estimates here, that’d be great.

Basically it’d also be good to keep this thread fairly uncluttered with comments if possible too. Keeping it under 100 posts would be great for searching purposes.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2005 at 09:18 AM | 15 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2005 at 09:21 AM (#1252483)
Hot topics.
   2. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 13, 2005 at 09:26 AM (#1252484)
Of course for it to work properly in PA, I'd need an estimate of playing time also, in terms of AB+BB, or IP. Is that too much to ask? I'm also wrecking the minimal comments idea, with 2 in 3 minutes here . . . but anyway, I guess this is more like what I'm envisioning:


Biz Mackey, 154 game base
Year BWS    FWS  Total  AB+BB
1920 14.0   4.1   18.1   XXX
1921 12.4   5.1   17.5   XXX
1922 19.6   3.8   23.4   XXX
1923 18.9   6.8   25.7   XXX
1924 12.9   6.5   19.4   XXX
1925 10.6   6.1   16.7   XXX
1926 11.6   8.1   19.7   XXX
1927  9.8   8.2   18.0   XXX
1928 11.7   7.5   19.2   XXX
1929  6.1   8.8   14.9   XXX
1930 11.0   7.7   18.7   XXX
1931 10.6   6.5   17.1   XXX
1932                     XXX
1933  4.6   5.6   10.2   XXX
1934  2.5   2.4    4.9   XXX
1935  0.0   4.6    4.6   XXX
1936  0.4   5.0    5.4   XXX
1937  1.8   4.0    5.8   XXX
1938  1.2   3.1    4.3   XXX
1939  2.9   3.7    6.6   XXX
1940  1.5   2.3    3.8   XXX
1941  1.4   2.4    3.8   XXX
tot 165.5 112.3  277.8


Or as an alternative to AB+BB, full games would work, if that's something that you have that's easier to do than AB+BB. Bacially for Pennants Added, I use AB+BB divided by league AB+BB divided by 9 to determine full-time games for purposes of subtracting out a replacement level.
   3. Tiboreau Posted: April 13, 2005 at 01:05 PM (#1252530)
[u]Biz Mackey[/u]
     [b]ab
+bb   bWS   fWS   tWS  ops+[/b]
1920   503  14     4.1  18.1  122
1921   553  12.4   5.1  17.5  108
1922   590  19.6   3.8  23.4  131
1923   547  18.9   6.8  25.7  142
1924   536  12.9   6.5  19.4  110
1925   427  10.6   6.1  16.7  111
1926   515  11.6   8.1  19.7  109
1927   427   9.8   8.2  18    101
1928   464  11.7   7.5  19.2  104
1929   487   6.1   8.8  14.9   82
1930   475  11     7.7  18.7  107
1931   421  10.6   6.5  17.1  110
1932
1933   337   4.6   5.6  10.2   89
1934   206   2.5   2.4   4.9   85
1935   326   0     4.6   4.6   49
1936   363   0.4   5     5.4   56
1937   302   1.8   4     5.8   63
1938   229   1.2   3.1   4.3   56
1939   284   2.9   3.7   6.6   68
1940   186   1.5   2.3   3.8   65
1941   174   1.4   2.4   3.8   70

[i]tot
:  8352 165.5 112.3 277.8   98[/i] 

[u]Mule Suttles[/u]
      [b]ab
+bb  bWS   fWS   tWS  ops+[/b]
1923   315   6.3   1.7   8     71
1924   647  10.4   3.5  13.9  101
1925   647  25.7   2.7  28.4  152
1926   647  41.6   2.5  44.1  219
1927   215  11.5   0.8  12.3  186
1928   504  19.3   1.7  21    142
1929   609  16.7   2.2  18.9  125
1930   630  28.5   2.4  30.9  153
1931   622  18.8   2.8  21.6  136
1932   588  16.6   2    18.6  137
1933   609  21     2.2  23.2  140
1934   588  12.3   2.3  14.6  125
1935   647  19.3   2.2  21.5  133
1936   609  15     1.9  16.9  155
1937   588  23.2   2.1  25.3  158
1938   588  10.5   1.9  12.4  127
1939   546  13     1.7  14.7  111
1940   420   4.5   1.6   6.1   92
1941   147   0     0.5   0.5   27

[i]tot
10166 314.2  38.7 352.9  137[/i] 

[u]Jud Wilson[/u]
      [b]ab
+bb  bWS   fWS   tWS  ops+[/b]
1922   420  14.3   1.7  16    126
1923   647  19.9   2.8  22.7  138
1924   609  18.2   2.3  20.5  129
1925   647  24.5   3.6  28.1  149
1926   559  21.6   3.4  25    148
1927   638  30.2   4    34.2  172
1928   504  24     3.7  27.7  176
1929   630  21.8   2.9  24.7  145
1930   647  19.4   5.2  24.6  118
1931   638  23.7   4.9  28.6  134
1932   617  18     4.8  22.8  119
1933   647  26.2   4.7  30.9  140
1934   647  15.9   4.6  20.5  120
1935   647  15.4   3    18.4  113
1936   634  15     2.4  17.4  114
1937   285   8.8   1.5  10.3  122
1938   462   3.2   2.3   5.5   64

[i]tot
:  9878 320.1  57.8 377.9  132[/i] 

[u]John Beckwith[/u]
      [b]ab
+bb  bWS   fWS   tWS  ops+[/b]
1919    72   0.3   0.4   0.7   91
1920   533  13.6   4.3  17.9   94
1921   638  19     5    24    138
1922   550  15.8   4.1  19.9  126
1923   606  23.4   4.3  27.7  147
1924   621  26.1   4.7  30.8  155
1925   586  24.2   4.4  28.6  157
1926   491  20     3.2  23.2  149
1927   636  22     4.1  26.1  133
1928   567  19.3   4    23.3  127
1929   615  18.5   4    22.5  135
1930   421  15.1   2.6  17.7  144
1931   624  21.5   3    24.5  161
1932   421  13     1.9  14.9  156
1933   400  10.8   1.3  12.1  148
1934   227  0.4    0.8   1.2   39
1935    12  0      0     0    
-16

[i]tot
:  8010 263    52.1 315.1  137[/i] 
   4. Tiboreau Posted: April 13, 2005 at 02:00 PM (#1252587)
[u]Cool Papa Bell[/u]
      ab
+bb  bWS   fWS   tWS  ops+
1924   580   7.2   5.5  12.7   77
1925   645  13.5   7.8  21.3   96
1926   684  16.4   8.2  24.6  107
1927   693   8.9   6.5  15.4   75
1928   693   9.2   7    16.2   79
1929   693   6.7   7    13.7   70
1930   666  12.4   4.5  16.9   92
1931   626  15.4   5.7  21.1   97
1932   609  21.2   5.3  26.5  124
1933   647  17.2   6.7  23.9  114
1934   634  16.5   6    22.5  112
1935   647  17.1   4.3  21.4  105
1936   630  12.8   4.8  17.6  100
[i]1937        12.5   4.2  16.7
1938        17     4.2  21.2
1939        13     4.2  17.2
1940        20.5   4.2  24.7
1941         8     4.2  12.2[
/i]
1942   588  21.5   3.7  25.2  137
1943   480  16.7   2.3  19    137
1944   472  13     2    15    113
1945   323   3.5   1.3   4.8   79
1946   283   7.8   1.1   8.9  118

[i]tot
10593 308   110.7 418.7  100
     13637[
/i] 

This is the info I've collected from the Negro League threads so far. Suttles' and Beckwith's Win Shares totals have yet to be adjusted for 1930s AL/NL offense.

Considering Bell's offensive performance from 1927 - 31, he probably wouldn't receive so many PAs. With the suggested 10% discount his career totals are
12273  277.2 99.6 376.8  100 
Also, his performance in the Mexican Leagues, 1937 - 41, was estimated based on his before & after record. No yearly PA estimates, but Chris Cobb gave Bell 142 games per year and you can probably figure the PAs based on the two career totals (10593 vs. 13637).

When I have time I plan on collecting the rest of the data for the other Negro Leaguers, and if someone hasn't posted them I'll add'em.
   5. AROM Posted: April 13, 2005 at 07:40 PM (#1253444)
To get these numbers, you need fielding stats and team stats for Negro League teams. Where did you get these?

I've seen some hitting and pitching stats, but that's it. I think it was in Total Baseball.
   6. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 13, 2005 at 07:55 PM (#1253486)
To get these numbers, you need fielding stats and team stats for Negro League teams. Where did you get these?

They're estimated, ARoM. IOW, Mackey had a great rep as a fielding catcher, so Chris Cobb estimated what a A+ fielding catcher would have done in the projected games Chris has for the Biz.

Chris tries to handle it conservatively, since you can't always rely on the anecdotal evidence for understanding a Negro League player's defensive quality.
   7. Gary A Posted: April 13, 2005 at 08:25 PM (#1253587)
Chris was also able to use some fielding and league stats supplied by me and at least one other Negro League researcher who posts here (Gadfly). Gadfly gave us some league totals for the 1940s (both leagues); I have more or less complete stats (including fielding) for 1916, 1921, and 1928.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 13, 2005 at 08:36 PM (#1253620)
Sorry about not recognizing your (and Gadfly's) efforts, Gary. They're truly appreciated by me.
   9. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 14, 2005 at 04:33 AM (#1255402)
Awesome guys, thanks. I'll try to get them added to the lists today.
   10. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: April 14, 2005 at 05:19 AM (#1255469)
Tiboreau - When you say 10% discount, does that mean I should be discounting all of the offensive numbers 10% or something? Or are these totals good to go? The updates I've made are using the numbers above.
   11. Chris Cobb Posted: April 14, 2005 at 12:58 PM (#1255728)
When you say 10% discount, does that mean I should be discounting all of the offensive numbers 10% or something?

Cool Papa Bell's playing time totals should be decreased 10% from the estimates Tiboreau posted. Discussion and analysis of Bell's record after the OPS+ totals were arrived at made it clear that, given his level of offense, his overall playing time totals were unreasonably high. At least, that was my conclusion.
   12. DavidFoss Posted: April 17, 2005 at 10:05 PM (#1265020)
bump
   13. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 12, 2005 at 04:52 AM (#1398786)
John/Joe: Could we get this thread a link either in the top-of-the-page HoM link, or with the Negro League individual pages?
   14. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: June 12, 2005 at 07:38 PM (#1399244)
Devin:

It's done.
   15. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 13, 2005 at 01:01 AM (#1400154)
Thanks, John. Here's Willie Wells' numbers (hope the formatting's right):

Year Team PA   BWS    FWS  Total  OPS+
1926 Stl. 552  15.0   5.0  20.0   116
1927      643  19.3   7.1  26.4   127
1928      638  22.5   5.4  27.9   133
1929      647  20.2   6.4  26.6   126
1930      575  21.9   6.9  28.8   134
1931      546  16.8   4.3  21.1   122
1932 KC*  517  11.9   5.2  17.1   108
1933 Chi  613  14.8   7.6  22.4   108
1934      575  11.2   6.3  17.5    99
1935      601  12.9   7.5  20.4   100
1936 Nwk  483   8.5   4.4  12.9    98
1937      592  11.5   7.1  18.6    99
1938      609  20.3   8.1  28.4   130
1939      584  14.7   7.4  22.1   109
1940 MeL  540  12.2   5.9  18.1   103
1941      584  17.6   7.1  24.7   128
1942 Nwk  512  16.9   5.0  21.9   128 
1943 MeL  361   6.1   3.4   9.5    91
1944 MeL# 276   6.5   2.2   8.7   109
1945 NY^  258   1.7   1.7   3.4    72
1946 NY$  130   0.1   0.6   0.7    58
              282.6 114.7 397.3   114

*Also played for Detroit and Homestead
#Also played briefly fore the NY Black Yankees
^Also played for Newark
$Also played for Baltimore

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