New eligibles 1961-65:

Although you can certainly spot a few guys in there who have to be elected immediately, and there are quite a few respectable and debatable candidates, I don't see 10 obvious immediate electees. We may get a chance to catch up with some of the backlog we're starting to build.

Even as the supply of candidates with Negro League experience begins to dwindle, we won't be entirely free of needing to at least learn about non-MLB play. See for instance the name "Bobby Avila" on the 1965 list.

1962 (October 17)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
292 106.3 1936 Bob Feller-P (living)
are firt living HoMeR?

292 106.3 1936 Bob Feller-P (living)

are firt living HoMeR?

Its likely. Feller will go in quickly I'd presume. If not for Jackie Robinson, then perhaps Monte Irvin could have tied Feller that same year. Its also possible that Bobby Doerr could beat him. Buck O'Neill & Ralph Kiner have outside shots of sneaking in earlier as well.

OCF,

Avila will be fun, and then there's the strange and twisted tale of The Barber of Salville! I don't know what to make of Maglie's tangled career.

In fact, Maglie is on a very short list of pitchers coming up in the early-mid 1960s that look like they will require a little sleuthing to get to the bottom of, including:

-Maglie: What to do with his expulsion?
-Newcombe: Should he get military service credit? Does he get any NgL credit?
-Antonelli: Does he get military service credit?
-Trucks: Does he get any military service credit?

These guys are all borderline to begin with, but especially in Newcombe's case, the answers to these questions could turn out to mean in versus out because he missed at least two prime years to war.

Luckily we have plenty of time until we have to deal with these guys, they're still 15 years away!

1961-1965 New Eligibles

rank WinShares WARP3
 1  Slaughter  Feller
 2  Reese      Slaughter
 3  Vernon     Reese
 4  Feller     Lemon
 5  Doby       Dickson
 6  Stephens   Robinson
 7  Robinson   Stephens
 8  Kiner      Vernon
 9  Ennis      Doby
10  Lemon      Trucks
11  Rizzuto    Campanella
12  Kell       Kiner
13  Pafko      Rizzuto
14  Furillo    Pafko
15  Joost      Furillo
16  Campanella Kell
17  Dickson    SGordon

Stephens, Kiner, Joost, and Gordon in 1961

Dan,
Does each list use "WARP3 as of publication date"?
--

For 1956-1960 New Eligibles, I count 17 and 19 above the same thresholds, 200 Win Shares and 62 WARP3, practically the same numbers as 17 and 17 for 1961-1965.

The number of elite candidates, by the featured career ratings, is greater for 1956-1960 (3 and 4 players above 300 WS and 100 W3) than for 1961-1965 (2 and 1).

Oscar Charleston?

Don't believe so. Charleston's career started well before Negro League All-star games started...

Does anyone know when Bonnie Serrell, Pee Wee Butts, and Gene Benson would be eligible? I haven't seen them on our lists, and I wanted to be sure they weren't overlooked.

Does anyone know when Bonnie Serrell, Pee Wee Butts, and Gene Benson would be eligible? I haven't seen them on our lists, and I wanted to be sure they weren't overlooked.

They're all included among in the post-1950 NeL eligibles. See the list in post 88 on page 4 of this thread. Benson in 1955, Butts in 1961, and Serrell in 1963.

Thanks, Chris!

Does each list use "WARP3 as of publication date"?
Paul, I make no attempt to keep up with the caprices of the WARP ratings. So the answer is, "not necessarily." I looked up those ratings about two months ago, so they may have changed by now.

Since the numbers are there to give only a general indication of quality, I don't think it's worth it to update them continually with the (usually)minor changes. By all means, when we get to the year in question, voters should do a thorough study of candidates, including any improvements to the WARP system.

standing on the shoulders of giants dept, these are copies of Dan G's lists for the next two years, might be helpful.........

1949 (April 10)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
305 99.7 1928 Carl Hubbell-P (1988)
252 92.0 1928 Dick Bartell-SS (1995)
238 78.6 1928 Chuck Klein-RF (1958)
225 79.8 1931 Tommy Bridges-P (1968)
220 70.9 1931 Lon Warneke-P (1976)
079 31.1 1935 Mace Brown-RP (2002)
104 22.4 1935 Rip Radcliff-LF (1962)
Negro Lg 1920 Biz Mackey-C (1959)
1950 (April 24)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
423 125.8 1926 Paul Waner-RF (1965)
333 104.2 1926 Joe Cronin-SS (1984)
145 46.2 1932 Johnny Allen-P (1959)
144 46.3 1935 Ival Goodman-RF (1984)
130 42.1 1933 Frank Demaree-RF/CF
127 35.0 1923 Johnny Cooney-CF/P (1986)
095 30.9 1937 Cliff Melton-P (1986)
082 28.8 1930 Joe Heving-RP (1970)
Negro Lg 1923 Martin Dihigo-RF/P (1971)
Negro Lg 1921 George Scales-2B (1976)

standing on the shoulders of giants dept, these are copies of Dan G's lists for the next two years, might be helpful.........

Looks like nobody from the backlog will make it to an elect me spot for those two years.

I was kind of hoping that our first living electee would be someone who wasn't recognized in the 'real' hall.It'd be more fun to try and contact someone who wasn't recognized before and tell them that we were enshrining them. Whats Feller gonna care when he's been in the Hall for decades?

Whats Feller gonna care when he's been in the Hall for decades?

I doubt he'll hardly care at all, Carl, though he probably will be pissed if the vote is not unanimous for him. :-)

Just wanted to check in about a Negro League candidate. I don't think Rev Cannady appears on any of our eligibility lists. He was born in March of 1904, so he should be eligible this year (I think). Also, his playing career ended in 1945, so he's just about due either way.

Did I just miss him, or is he on the eligibility list somewhere?

from DanG post #480:

New eligibles 1951-55.

1951 (May 8)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
435 134.9 1927 Jimmie Foxx-1B (1967)
287 95.5 1933 Bob Johnson-LF (1982)
216 77.5 1934 Harlond Clift-3B (1992)
233 71.6 1930 Ben Chapman-CF/RF (1993)
231 70.0 1931 Paul Derringer-P (1987)
224 69.9 1934 Dolph Camilli-1B (1997)
206 73.4 1929 Rick Ferrell-C (1995)
203 60.8 1930 Tony Cuccinello-2B (1995)
165 63.8 1934 Curt Davis-P (1965)
178 48.6 1931 Gee Walker-LF (1981)
147 55.6 1932 Van Mungo-P (1985)
135 50.1 1930 Gus Mancuso-C (1984)
149 44.9 1933 Pete Fox-RF (1966)
135 45.7 1937 Jim Tobin-P (1969)
146 41.2 1936 Mike Kreevich-CF (1994)
119 37.5 1930 Whit Wyatt-P (1999)
115 33.1 1936 Gene Moore-RF (1978)
102 35.0 1936 Max Butcher-P (1957)
105 33.8 1939 Vern Kennedy-P (1993)
084 23.0 1939 Bobby Estalella-CF/LF (1991)

1952 (May 22)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
528 177.4 1926 Mel Ott-RF (1958)
314 109.9 1929 Bill Dickey-C (1993)
243 59.3 1931 Joe Kuhel-1B (1984)
189 49.9 1932 Frankie Crosetti-SS (2002)
176 55.2 1932 Hal Schumacher-P (1993)
195 47.9 1933 Pinky Higgins-3B (1969)
195 47.8 1934 Hal Trosky-1B (1979)
130 48.3 1928 Rollie Hemsley-C (1972)
130 45.3 1934 Frankie Hayes-C (1955)
138 42.6 1937 Vince DiMaggio-CF (1986)
089 29.3 1937 Jimmy Brown-2B/3B (1977)
Negro Lg 1930 Josh Gibson-C (1947)
Negro Lg 1931 Sammy Hughes-2B (1981)
Negro Lg 1925 Chet Brewer-P (1990)

1953 (June 5)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
322 101.7 1925 Red Ruffing-P (1986)
316 98.4 1932 Stan Hack-3B (1979)
298 97.9 1932 Billy Herman-2B (1992)
267 85.2 1933 Hank Greenberg-1B (1986)
234 71.7 1928 Mel Harder-P (2002)
218 75.6 1931 Ernie Lombardi-C (1977)
189 72.3 1936 Claude Passeau-P (2003)
173 75.6 1930 Al Lopez-C (living)
219 52.2 1931 Doc Cramer-CF (1990)
170 62.3 1931 Billy Jurges-SS (1997)
182 55.8 1939 Roy Cullenbine-RF (1991)
177 56.4 1934 Bill Lee-P (1977)
169 57.5 1934 Cecil Travis-SS/3B (living)
151 46.6 1939 Mort Cooper-P (1958)
127 43.7 1937 Spud Chandler-P (1990)
142 37.7 1938 George Case-LF/RF (1989)
109 31.0 1934 Cookie Lavagetto-3B (1990)
112 24.1 1939 Nick Etten-1B (1990)
104 31.0 1934 Johnny Murphy-RP (1970)
095 33.2 1937 Eddie Smith-P (1994)
097 30.8 1937 Chet Laabs-LF/RF (1983)
Negro Lg 1924 Willie Wells-SS (1989)
Negro Lg 1933 Bill Byrd-P ()

1954 (June 19)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 119.5 1932 Arky Vaughan-SS (1952)
312 94.5 1933 Joe Medwick-LF (1975)
251 87.1 1933 Bucky Walters-P (1991)
208 64.5 1933 Lonny Frey-2B (living)
214 56.3 1937 Rudy York-1B (1970)
202 57.2 1938 Frank McCormick-1B (1982)
165 52.5 1934 Thornton Lee-P (1997)
173 50.0 1936 George McQuinn-1B (1978)
152 49.2 1935 Terry Moore-CF (1995)
140 49.5 1934 Fritz Ostermueller-P (1957)
122 42.7 1936 Denny Galehouse-P (1998)
094 27.6 1938 Max West-LF (2003)
Negro Lg 1932 Hilton Smith-P (1983)

1955 (July 3)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
278 73.8 1933 Dixie Walker-RF (1982)
263 77.0 1934 Augie Galan-LF (1993)
217 65.1 1938 Jeff Heath-LF (1975)
180 64.4 1933 Schoolboy Rowe-P (1961)
185 59.0 1935 Elbie Fletcher-1B (1994)
179 51.5 1936 Buddy Lewis-3B/RF (living)
169 44.5 1940 Stan Spence-CF (1983)
139 49.9 1938 Rip Sewell-P (1989)
145 45.2 1936 Harry Gumbert-P (1995)
138 42.0 1942 Whitey Kurowski-3B (1999)
110 41.1 1938 Nels Potter-P (1990)
113 38.5 1941 Tex Hughson-P (1993)
118 36.7 1940 Tiny Bonham-P (1949)
123 33.9 1938 Taffy Wright-RF (1981)
101 32.9 1940 Wally Judnich-CF (1971)
102 29.3 1940 Frank Gustine-2B/3B (1991)
080 31.0 1939 Mike Tresh-C (1966)
081 26.1 1939 Hugh Casey-RP (1951)
Negro Lg 1933 Buck Leonard-1B (1997)
Negro Lg 1930 Ray Brown-P ()

So, here's how the next five years will look:

1951: Foxx and Cronin.

1952: Ott and Gibson, with Dickey #3.

1953: A very intriguing year. Dickey will probably be inducted; this leaves a slew of borderline MLB candidates (Indian Bob Johnson, Ruffing, Hack, Herman, Greenberg, and Lombardi) and NeL shortstop Willie Wells fighting for #2. On a glance, I prefer Greenberg.

1954: Vaughn and Medwick. Both Hilton Smith and Bucky Walters will get 10+ late-position votes.

1955: No obvious ML inductees for the first time in some years. Buck Leonard joins the 1953 backlog in an exciting free-for-all.

Highly unlikely that Medwick will be elected on his first ballot or even his first several ballots. He has a nice peak, but 312 ws just isn't that special for an outfielder. Hack, Herman, Ruffing, and Wells from 1953 alone may well be ahead of him, as well as the top candidates in the current backlog.

I suspect that Walters will receive a little more attention than Ardo predicts. He's got some Deanesque peak seasons, plus he's got a little more career value. Even with a 10% reduction for his 1943-1945 seasons, he still looks very competitve. Essentially he and the more ballyhooed Newhouser are extremely similar candidates, but Walters could hit a little.

So I could go to sleep until at least 1956 and y'all would elect a bunch of n'b'ers without my help? Dare I Trust this group that much??

Let's try this to clarify: Obvious first-ballot HoM inductees, 1951-1965.

1951: Foxx
1952: Gibson and Ott
1953: none
1954: Vaughn
1955: Leonard
1956: Appling
1957: DiMaggio
1958: none
1959: Paige

Now the fun begins:
1960: none
1961: none
1962: Robinson and Feller
1963: none
1964: none
1965: none

Get ready to sling your arrows in 1960!

Taking Ardo's list further, only by HOFers, non-controversial first ballot eligibles in parentheses):

1966: Williams, T
1967: none
1968: none (Asburn)
1969: Musial (Wynn, Schoendienst)
1970: none (Snider)
1971: Spahn, Berra (Fox)
1972: none (Koufax, Roberts)
1973: none (Ford)
1974: Mantle, Mathews
1975: none (Drysdale)
1976: none
1977: none (Banks, Bunning)
1978: none (Clemente, Wilhelm, Mazeroski)
1979: Mays (Aparicio)
1980: none (Kaline, Cepeda)
1981: none (Gibson, Marichal, Killebrew)
1982: Aaron, FRobinson (BWilliams)
1983: none (BRobinson)
1984: none
1985: none (Hunter, Brock)
1986: none (McCovey)
1987: none
1988: none (Stargell)
1989: Yastrzemski, Bench (Jenkins, Perry)
1990: Morgan (Palmer)
1991: Carew (Fingers)
1992: Seaver (Perez)
1993: none (RJackson, Niekro)
1994: Carlton (Sutton)
1995: Schmidt
1996: none
1997: none
1998: none (Carter)
1999: Brett (Yount, Ryan)
2000: none (Fisk)
2001: none (Winfield, Puckett)
2002: none (OSmith)
2003: none (Murray, Sandberg)
2004: none (Molitor, Eckersley)
2005: Boggs

This list is ultra-conservative. If I think there will be any argument against a player, I put him in parentheses. I automatically assume that any non-HOFer will have some argument against first-ballot status.

In any event, the list shows that especially with elect-3 years, we will have plenty of open spots coming up. It also shows that we will probably not have anything like 1934(Cobb, Speaker, ECollins, Lloyd, SJWilliams, Torriente) or even 1952 (Gibson, Ott, Dickey) ever again.

Maybe the 1890s guys will have a chance after all.

That should be "controversial new eligibles in parentheses" above.

I'm thinking Berra will be eligible in 1969 since 1965 was just a token appearance.

I'm thinking Berra will be eligible in 1969 since 1965 was just a token appearance.

This is correct. HoM candidates sometimes do not become eligible in the same year as that other hall, due to token appearances.

I've done most of the work up to 1975. Some notes, including non-HOFers:
Newcombe is eligible 1966.
Schoedienst is eligible 1968.
Minoso and Pierce are eligible 1970.
Jim Gilliam is eligible 1972.
Colavito, Maris and E. Howard are eligible 1974.
K. Boyer is eligible 1975.

I also recall that Steve Carlton is eligible 1993.

Maybe the 1890s guys will have a chance after all.

The 1960s are shaping up to be a turbulent era (how appropriate).

Whether some of the 1890s backlog achieve election in the late 1960s and early 1970s will depend on how arguments about competition levels, time-lining, and period representation shake out; how arguments about credit and discredit for WWII shake out; how estimation of the quality of play in the NeL shakes out; and how the marginal candidates of the 1930s, who will have the advantage over the 1890s on the time-line, over the 1940s on playing time, and over the NeLs on documentation, are regarded as a group.

A paradigmatic outfield problem--Van Haltren vs. Averill vs. Bell vs. Medwick vs. D. Dimaggio vs. Irvin, with Roush, Cravath, Arlett, and Willard Brown (plus others that might be named) thrown in for good measure.

Maybe analysis and debate will bring some of this group above the rest in the electorate's estimation; maybe not.

By listing them together, I don't presume that there are no differences in quality that won't become evident in analysis, but I don't presume that there will be, either.

Continuing from #442. New eligibles 1966-70:

1966 (December 12)-elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
555 169.3 1939 Ted Williams-LF (2002)
226 61.8 1948 Alvin Dark-SS (living)
205 61.8 1947 Bobby Thomson-CF/LF (living)
194 59.9 1951 Gil McDougald-2B/3B (living)
176 65.0 1949 Don Newcombe-P (living)
173 63.7 1949 Willie Jones-3B (1983)
152 65.1 1948 Bob Rush-P (living)
166 45.4 1949 Ray Boone-3B/SS (2004)
137 49.6 1942 Jim Hegan-C (1984)
156 40.7 1945 Whitey Lockman-1B/LF (living)
107 28.8 1950 Irv Noren-CF/LF (living)
105 27.5 1949 Johnny Groth-CF (living)
1967 (December 26)-elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
166 75.6 1948 Ned Garver-P (living)
203 48.1 1948 Ted Kluszewski-1B (1988)
187 53.2 1950 Jackie Jensen-RF (1982)
184 53.6 1947 Earl Torgeson-1B (1990)
187 48.5 1942 Elmer Valo-RF (1998)
160 57.0 1949 Mike Garcia-P (1986)
180 47.7 1949 Hank Bauer-RF (living)
146 60.0 1949 Johnny Antonelli-P (living)
138 51.8 1947 Gerry Staley-RP (living)
110 36.3 1945 Del Rice-C (1983)
099 40.3 1949 Chuck Stobbs-P (living)
096 35.8 1951 Clem Labine-RP (living)
107 26.3 1952 Jim Rivera-RF/CF (living)
1968 (January 9)-elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
329 106.0 1948 Richie Ashburn-CF (1997)
262 85.6 1945 Red Schoendienst-2B (living)
267 65.4 1647 Eddie Yost-3B (living)
228 63.5 1946 Gene Woodling-LF (2001)
175 46.2 1950 Gus Bell-CF/RF (1995)
170 42.5 1948 Billy Goodman-2B/1B (1984)
142 36.2 1947 Dave Philley-RF/CF (living)
134 35.2 1952 Bob Nieman-LF (1985)
107 36.0 1950 Danny O'Connell-2B (1969)
112 29.5 1951 Jim Busby-CF (1996)
1969 (January 23)-elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
604 188.1 1942 Stan Musial-LF/1B (living)
375 119.5 1947 Yogi Berra-C (living)
309 107.9 1941 Early Wynn-P (1999)
263 76.6 1947 Gil Hodges-1B (1972)
209 69.8 1947 Sherm Lollar-C (1977)
219 57.4 1947 Vic Wertz-RF/1B (1983)
181 62.8 1951 Johnny Logan-SS (living)
157 40.7 1952 Johnny Temple-2B (1994)
132 45.3 1954 Don Hoak-3B (1969)
118 45.3 1954 Frank Sullivan-P (living)
116 37.8 1952 Wally Post-RF (1982)
117 31.8 1951 Charlie Maxwell-LF (living)
102 28.8 1953 Daryl Spencer-SS/2B (living)
103 24.0 1954 Jim Lemon-RF/LF (living)
1970 (February 6)-elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
352 103.6 1948 Duke Snider-CF (living)
283 79.6 1951 Minnie Minoso-LF (living)
248 88.8 1948 Billy Pierce-P (living)
216 58.5 1951 Pete Runnels-2B/1B (1991)
159 64.8 1949 Bobby Shantz-RP (living)
190 50.9 1953 Bill Bruton-CF (1995)
194 42.9 1953 Al Smith-RF/LF (2002)
103 39.8 1955 Sam Jones-P (1971)

Does anyone know or have eligibility dates for the following Negro Leaguers? I don't seem to have them on my various eligibility lists.

Thank you!

Bankhead, Dan
Evans, Chin
Gaines, Jonas
Taylor, Johnny
Williams, Johnny
Wright, Johnny
Fields, Wilmer
McHenry, Henry
Porter, Pullman
Tiant, Luis Sr.

Based on Riley’s bios, here are the seasons in which the players Dr. Chaleeko asked about will become eligible, in chronological order:

Luis Tiant, Sr. 1952
John Taylor 1952
Johnny Wright 1954
Chin Evans 1955
Henry McHenry 1956
Pullman Porter 1956
Dan Bankhead 1957
Johnny Williams 1959
Jonas Gaines 1960
Wilmer Fields 1964

Thanks, Chris!

Since Tiant and Taylor missed their chance for discussion in the 1952 ballot discussion, I suggest that they be listed as newly eligible for the 1953 election. Does that seem reasonable?

Also, I'd be interested in seeing a discussion thread for Tiant. Taylor had a short career, so his case probably would depend pretty heavily on whether he gets credit for military service. (Riley is unclear about his military status during WWII.)

Brent,

We just crisscrossed. See 1952 ballot discussion for more on Tiant.

Eric,

Thanks. I'll post some information on Tiant's Cuban career.

With more than half of the electorate already having voted, and presumably quite a few of them going away for the holiday weekend, I still think it would be best if Tiant and Taylor could be listed as newly eligible for 1953.

top upcoming candidates, per Dan G's lists

1954
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 119.5 1932 Arky Vaughan-SS (1952)
312 94.5 1933 Joe Medwick-LF (1975)
251 87.1 1933 Bucky Walters-P (1991)
Negro Lg 1932 Hilton Smith-P (1983)

1955
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
278 73.8 1933 Dixie Walker-RF (1982)
180 64.4 1933 Schoolboy Rowe-P (1961)
Negro Lg 1933 Buck Leonard-1B (1997)
Negro Lg 1930 Ray Brown-P ()

1956
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
378 115.9 1931 Luke Appling-SS (1991)
242 76.6 1938 Joe Gordon-2B (1978)

1957
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
387 123.9 1936 Joe DiMaggio-CF (1999)
277 100.3 1939 Lou Boudreau-SS (2001)
281 98.3 1937 Bobby Doerr-2B (living)
Negro Lg 1937 Buck O’Neil-1B (living)

1958
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
228 83.8 1939 Dizzy Trout-P (1972)
220 74.1 1940 Dom DiMaggio-CF (living)
Negro Lg 1935 Willard Brown-CF (1996)

Howie, I think Charlie Keller in 1957 might be of interest to some peak voters.

And in 1958 Sam Jethroe is a guy I'd like to know more about--i.e. his pre-MLB career including NeL and was there anything else?

Then the class of '59 is another great class. The top two might be obvious but Bob Elliott is a real sleeper, and I think Ray Dandridge may rise above some of the HoF and other "famous" NeL IF who turned out to be all defense. And Wild Bill Wright looks from a distance to be similar to Willard Brown. I'm looking forward to learning about the two of them.

I will be sorry to see the NeL candidate stream coming to an end.

And to think I ALMOST put Keller on that list.
Well, he's on the radar, now, anyway, isn't he?

The best players on DanG'Howie's list above (1954-1959 eligibles) will never square off vs. one another. Just to try to stir up some controversy, here's my top 10 among these guys.

1. DiMaggio--no, no, the other one, Joe
2. Vaughan
3. Mize
4. Paige
5. Leonard
6. Medwick
7. Ray Brown
8. Appling--not enough peak for my taste but still a likely first year PHoMer
9. Boudreau
10. Leon Day

11. Willard Brown
12. Gordon--really really really close between him and Doerr
13. Doerr
14. Newhouser
15. C. Keller
16. Elliott
17. Dandridge
18. Wright
19. Walters
20. H. Smith

This is an awful lot of at least VG players in a short time, but thank god for a backlog year (1955) just to keep things interesting.

Sunnyday,

Among the guys on your list, I think Walters is too low and Gordon and Doerr too high. Maybe Day too. Walters is extremely comparable to Newhouser, and I think both are better than the 2Bs. Meanwhile, we'll see with Day, but he hurt his arm in the middle of his peak, ruining his chances at pitching in MLB, and I don't have a sense yet of whether he was able to convert himself over to a curves-and-changeups pitcher to survive.

Doc, yeah, haven't researched the upcomers, especially people like Day and Willard Brown, so it could change. As for Gordon and Doerr, who would they be below? Prince Hal maybe, not Keller, maybe Dandridge as we learn about him.

Actually I figured people would object to Paige below Vaughan and Mize, Appling as low as he is, and Medwick as high as he is. To me Medwick = Al Simmons.

But you're right, Bucky Walters is a bit underrated by history.

BTW, I just realized that in 1958, when the newbie class is pretty weak (though I am anxious to understand if Willard Brown is more of a Mule Suttles or more of a Heavy Johnson)...

We elect 3 in 1958. My projection suggests Beckwith and Averill from the "old backlog" (Suttles looks poised to go in in 1956 and this presumes Vaughan, Wells, Leonard, R. Brown, Appling, DiMaggio and Boudreau are also successful), then maybe Joe Medwick from the "new backlog."

But Averill is neck and neck with Wes Ferrell and Biz Mackey, and who knows where Medwick will land?

I will say right now that I will like Keller, to the point where he looks ballot worthy at the time he comes on. Big peak, with war credit he looks pretty good. Better than Gordon and Doerr, I believe.

Paige below Mize isn't unheard of, I have this odd feeling that Paige's reputation may be part myth. He is still a HOMer, but maybe on the level of Alexander, Matthewson, and Nichols than Grove, Johnson, and Young. I hope I am wrong, however.



I think Mize is one of the top 6-7 1B ever, maybe top 5.

Or is Paige a right-handed Warren Spahn?

Most or all of the people of interest, 1956-61..

1956 elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
378 115.9 1931 Luke Appling-SS (1991)
242 76.6 1938 Joe Gordon-2B (1978)

1957 elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
387 123.9 1936 Joe DiMaggio-CF (1999)
277 100.3 1939 Lou Boudreau-SS (2001)
281 98.3 1937 Bobby Doerr-2B (living)
218 67.0 1939 Charlie Keller-LF (1990)
Negro Lg 1937 Buck O’Neil-1B (living)

1958 elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
228 83.8 1939 Dizzy Trout-P (1972)
220 74.1 1940 Dom DiMaggio-CF (living)
Negro Lg 1935 Willard Brown-CF (1996)

1959 elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
338 98.9 1936 Johnny Mize-1B (1993)
287 91.0 1940 Bob Elliott-3B (1966)
233 89.2 1934 Dutch Leonard-P (1983)
237 80.9 1934 Bobo Newsom-P (1962)
223 73.7 1939 Bill Nicholson-RF (1996)
063 15.0 19?? Luke Easter-1B (1979)
042 17.5 1927 Satchel Paige-P (1982)
Negro Lg 1933 Ray Dandridge-3B (1994)
Negro Lg 1932 Wild Bill Wright-RF ()

1960 elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
264 103.5 1940 Hal Newhouser-P (1998)
237 61.3 1935 Phil Cavarretta-1B (living)
187 55.1 1942 Johnny Pesky-SS/3B (living)
170 55.1 1943 Allie Reynolds-P (1994)
Negro Lg 1934 Leon Day-P (1995)

1961 elect 1
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
265 78.8 1942 Vern Stephens-SS (1968)
242 73.1 1946 Ralph Kiner-LF (living)
199 63.0 1943 Sid Gordon-LF/3B (1975)

281 98.3 1937 Bobby Doerr-2B (living)

He appears to have the best shot at being our first living HoMer until Ralph Kiner is eligible in '61. Not an excellent shot, mind you, but he's at least a borderline case. He'll probably wind up as returnee for quite a few years to come, though.

Of course, if Doerr goes in, he gets a San Diego cap because that was the team that he started with.

;-)

Fine, I'll trade you Doerr for Ruth and Speaker :-))

On possibilities for the first living HoMer:

Bill Wright (eligible 1959) was still alive when Riley's encyclopedia was published, but he passed on in 1997.

I think it unlikely that any of the living candidates will be elected before Bob Feller becomes eligible and gets elected in 1962.

Of course, if Doerr goes in, he gets a San Diego cap because that was the team that he started with.

;-)

Ted, too? *ducks* :-)

Fine, I'll trade you Doerr for Ruth and Speaker :-))

If I did something as crazy as giving Doerr a San Diego cap, you should get at least Ruth and Speaker. :-)

Ted, too? *ducks* :-)

I wouldn't even kid karlmagnus about doing that to the Splendid Splinter. :-0

Chris, don't misunderestimate Ralph Kiner. In another project like this--but one that elected a "small hall " of about 120 players--Kiner went in in his first year of eligiblity. His OBP as I recall is very very good and I think he had a little power, too.

And remember, that was without considering his merit as an announcer ;-)

Were 1961 not our last "elect-one" year, Kiner might have a shot with a more peak-friendly, less career-friendly electorate. But here's the thing, dealing the backlog as if players will be inducted in their current order and over all new arrivals except for the shoo-ins:

1956 Appling and Suttles elected; Joe Gordon to the backlog
1957 Dimaggio and Beckwith elected Boudreau, Doerr, and Keller to the backlog
1958 Herman, Medwick, Ruffing elected; Dizzy Trout and Willard Brown to the backlog
1959 Paige and Mize elected; Elliott, Dandridge, D. Leonard, Newsom, Wright to the backog
1960 Newhouser and Hack elected; Day to the backlog

So we'll have, of current backloggers, a top 5 of

Ferrell, Jennings, Averill, Rixey, Mackey

with a recent arrivals pool of

Gordon, Boudreau, Doerr, Keller, Trout, Brown, Elliott, Dandridge, Leonard, Newsom, Wright, and Day

Is Ralph Kiner #1 over that group? Maybe he will be, but I doubt it. He will not be in the elect-me slot on my ballot: that much I know . . .

Wow... 1958 is not that far off and things start getting pretty interesting at that point.

Yes, 1958 will definitely be an interesting election, with quite a number of interesting elections to follow. It'll be a nice change after 6 months of elections with virtually no uncertainty at all.

Chris, as to post #94 above, I will be interested to see where W. Brown, Day and Bill Wright end up. If they are better than you imply, then either one or more of them is elected by 1960 or they make the backlog even better than you imply.

OTOH you have Hal Newhouser going in in 1960. No way is Hal New houser a better candidate than Ralph Kiner. If Newhouser can beat out all those guys in 1960, then the anser to your question is clearly yes, Ralph Kiner is better than that group.

I realize that Elmer Flick was elected against a different set of players but Flick was OPS+ 149 in 6300 PAs. Kiner 148 in 6250.

Flick .313/.389/.445/149
Kiner .279/.398/.548/148

I would guess

1956 Appling and Suttles
1957 DiMaggio, Beckwith or Boudreau (you also sorely underrate Boudreau, I think)
1958 Beckwith or Boudreau, Herman, Medwick or W. Brown
1959 Mize and Paige (doh!)
1960 Medwick or Brown, L. Day or Ruffing
1961 Kiner

1962 Robinson and Feller
1963 Campanella, Day or Ruffing
1964 Hack, Ferrell
1965 Reese, Averill (Reese will be a hard case)
1966 Williams and Doerr
1967 Gordon and Slaughter
1968 Jennings and Mackey
1969 Musial and Berra

I said several years ago that we would only elect about 8-10 off the current backlog. This forecast shows 6 of that (the forecast having been made before Herman, Hack and Ruffing became eligible so they are not "backlog" for that purpose).

But to David and Chris' point, I lack any confidence whatsoever that I have correctly forecast where the electorate will rate Boudreau, Brown, Day, Kiner, Reese, Doerr, Gordon, Slaughter.

I think it's true that Wright, Brown, and Day are real wild cards here, especially the first two, and each will present a very interesting and tangled case to figure.

To wit:
-Wright: his career falls directly on the line between the NgL era and the integration era; after 1945ish, he spent most of his time in Mexico where the level of play was high, then quickly declined into the mid 1950s, masking his aging pattern.

-Brown: started young in the late 1930s, was essentially a Vlad Guerrero/Alfonso Soriano type hitter (tons of average, power, speed, didn't draw walks), was given less than half a chance in the majors, wound down his late 30s in the Texas league of the 1950s where he dominated.

-Day: arm owies at age 29ish ruined his chances for a big-league career, but he will be a peak candidate.

And let me add three more backlog names:

-Sam Jethroe: I don't really know much of anything about him except that he was the ROY one year and was probably real good.

-Luke Easter: Doesn't he come up by 1961 as well? If so, he's going to be very knotty with a late start, NgL, MLB, and MiL stats all intermingling.

-Alejandro Oms: With Gadfly's excellent career synopsis, we're get a clearer sense of Alejandro Oms and as Chris rolls out his projections, el Caballero may very well begin rise into the upper tier of the backlog.

And one query: Did Connie Marrero have a pre-integration NgL or international career that we need to know about?

While we're looking ahead, I should add that I think it's probable that Ray Dandridge was better than Stan Hack. That's without seeing his MeL numbers, of course, but my sense right now is that if Hack is a HoMer, Dandridge will be a HoMer also.

Based on Riley’s bios, here are the seasons in which the players Dr. Chaleeko asked about will become eligible, in chronological order:

Henry McHenry 1956
Pullman Porter 1956

Porter and McHenry are worth some discussion if not threads.

Here's some quick stuff on each of them:
Porter
NgL totals (1932-1946)
45-29, .608; 8.2 WAT.

MxL info
1940: 21-14 for a 41-50 team, 3.34 ERA for a 4.46 team in a 4.73 league; 296 innings.

1941: hard luck: 11-16 for a 51-44 team, but a 4.47 ERA on a 4.71 team in a 4.77 league; 235 innings.

1942: 5-8 for a 39-41 team; 103 innings; 5.66 ERA for a 5.20 ERA team in a 4.38 league

1943: 3 innings in Mex.

1946: 2-2 for a 47-48 team; 38.67 innings; 5.12 ERA for a 3.62 team.

I can post complete Porter stats later on if he gets a thread.

McHenry
NgLs (1930-1947)
69-50, .579; 16.1 WAT
[1932-1936 is extremely sketchy; I don't have Riley in front of me, but I think he was probably barnstorming with KC or something similar beause there's no data on him in Holway for the period.]

MxL
1940: 2-5 for a 40-35 team; 6.91 ERA for a 4.43 team in a 4.73 league

1941: 2-3 in 42 innings for a 40-57 team; 6.38 ERA for a 4.70 team in a 4.77 league

1942: 3-3 in 68 innings for a 40-45 team; 4.48 ERA for a 4.42 team in a 4.38 league

1943: 17-10 in 254 innings for a two teams with a total 3.22 ERA in a 3.90 league. I estimate his splits this way:
15-10 for 42-51 Tampico
2-0 for 38-50 Mexico.

1944: 16-12 in 221 innings for two teams; 4.03 ERA in a 4.28 league. I estimate his splits this way:
8-3 for 40-47 Tampico
8-9 for 52-37 Veracruz.

1945: 12-12 for 52-43 team; 182 innings; 5.44 ERA for a 4.41 team (I haven't calculated the league's ERA yet).

1949: 6-12 for a 46-39 team ; 153.33 innings; 3.35 ERA for a 4.31 team in a 4.00 league.

I can post complete McHenry stats later on if he gets a thread.

Some more info on Porter and McHenry.

PORTER
I left off a season for Porter in Mexico. In 1939, he went 10-7 for Tampico, sporting a 2.28 ERA in 146 Innings. 117 H, 35 BB, 111 K, 10 CG, 2 SHO. Also his 232 Ks in 1940 led the Mexican Leaugue.

He pitched through 1950 in the Negro Leagues, then went to the International League sometime in the early 1950s for a year or two. Riley's a little confused about which year(s) exactly.

McHENRY
From Holway
1937: McHenry went 2-1 in Cuba.

1939: McHenry went 10-14 in Puerto Rico.

In his customary style, Holway gives no ERA, peripherals, or team records, so I can't you any context on either of these seasons.

He was known as "Cream" for his complexion, and he was not a good hitter.

Continuing from #470. New eligibles 1971-75:

1971 (February 20)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
412 161.8 1946 Warren Spahn-P (2003)
304 83.7 1949 Nellie Fox-2B (1975)
231 60.9 1949 Roy Sievers-1B/LF
153 62.4 1953 Harvey Haddix-P (1994)
175 51.9 1954 Wally Moon-LF/RF
169 49.1 1951 Frank Thomas-LF/3B
157 46.9 1955 Bill Virdon-CF
145 51.0 1954 Ed Bailey-C
141 53.0 1955 Frank Lary-P
152 45.2 1954 Vic Power-1B
127 42.5 1955 Gus Triandos-C
127 42.0 1952 Dick Donovan-P (1997)
120 42.6 1954 Don Mossi-P
131 32.8 1954 Joe Cunningham-1B/RF
120 32.9 1957 Tony Kubek-SS
095 34.8 1953 Don Larsen-P
104 27.9 1958 Albie Pearson-CF
1972 (March 6)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
339 134.2 1948 Robin Roberts-P
207 87.4 1951 Bob Friend-P
247 65.6 1953 Jim Gilliam-2B/3B (1978)
236 69.1 1950 Joe Adcock-1B (1999)
223 55.8 1953 Harvey Kuenn-SS/RF (1988)
194 68.9 1955 Sandy Koufax-P
179 70.0 1949 Del Crandall-C
172 64.1 1951 Roy McMillan-SS (1997)
147 57.9 1952 Joe Nuxhall-P
162 50.7 1952 Jim Piersall-CF
147 50.3 1953 Bob Buhl-P (2001)
141 49.6 1954 Frank Bolling-2B
135 42.4 1956 Frank Malzone-3B
122 49.2 1954 Bob Purkey-P
140 37.3 1956 Don Blasingame-2B
137 37.3 1954 Bob Skinner-LF
136 33.1 1955 Hector Lopez-LF/3B
125 33.3 1960 Jim Gentile-1B
105 40.1 1952 Billy Hoeft-P
103 40.7 1953 Ray Herbert-P
105 30.0 1957 Ralph Terry-P
104 29.2 1956 Wes Covington-LF
120 22.3 1957 Bobby Richardson-2B
114 21.1 1958 Dick Stuart-1B (2002)
1973 (March 20)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
261 89.5 1950 Whitey Ford-P
225 76.6 1952 Dick Groat-SS
210 78.0 1948 Curt Simmons-P
178 67.7 1952 Lew Burdette-P
157 67.9 1950 Vern Law-P
154 61.7 1952 Stu Miller-RP
172 54.3 1951 Smoky Burgess-C/PH (1991)
183 43.2 1954 Bill Skowron-1B
143 54.7 1953 Johnny Podres-P
151 47.2 1957 Jim Landis-CF
142 48.5 1957 Earl Battey-C (2003)
136 42.4 1959 Johnny Romano-C
123 44.8 1957 Billy O’Dell-P
115 43.7 1957 Jack Sanford-P (2000)
114 39.3 1958 Bob Shaw-P
127 34.2 1957 Jerry Lumpe-2B
103 40.7 1950 Johnny Klippstein-RP
122 32.4 1956 Jackie Brandt-CF
108 33.7 1956 Eddie Bressoud-SS
099 33.4 1959 Jim O’Toole-P
103 28.6 1958 Don Demeter-CF
1974 (April 3)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
565 154.4 1951 Mickey Mantle-CF (1995)
450 130.5 1952 Eddie Mathews-3B (2001)
273 74.3 1956 Rocky Colavito-RF
225 87.6 1955 Larry Jackson-P (1990)
203 63.8 1955 Elston Howard-C (1980)
223 53.7 1957 Roger Maris-RF (1985)
171 43.2 1956 Norm Siebern-1B
110 41.1 1958 Bill Monbouquette-P
132 30.7 1961 Floyd Robinson-RF
087 30.7 1952 Bill Henry-RP
1975 (April 17)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
279 94.7 1955 Ken Boyer-3B (1982)
258 101.9 1956 Don Drysdale-P (1993)
221 68.4 1958 Curt Flood-CF (1997)
209 62.6 1956 Bill White-1B
139 59.0 1953 Roy Face-RP
153 48.9 1957 Woodie Held-SS/CF
160 42.0 1962 Tom Tresh-LF/SS
155 36.7 1958 Leon Wagner-LF (2004)
124 52.1 1957 Turk Farrell-RP (1977)
123 48.9 1955 Pedro Ramos-P
116 41.1 1958 Gary Bell-P
106 42.6 1953 Al Worthington-RP
108 33.3 1962 Ed Charles-3B
095 35.5 1960 Ken Johnson-P
084 33.9 1962 Dick Radatz-RP (2005)

Very interesting. Going by WS, Drysdale is about 30% better than Koufax. Indicates the lacunae in that measuring system, I think -- I will probably end up ranking neither all that high and Joss above both, but D>>K is certainly contrary to conventional wisom.

Well, going by WARP the difference is even bigger.

And PS. I rest my case about the necessity of factoring in peak performance.

Looking forward to unknotting Roy Sievers. He will be an interesting candidate due to a couple curious interruptions in his career.

And PS. I rest my case about the necessity of factoring in peak performance.

Lord knows I agree with this (Hughie for life!), but yet again, I put forward the idea that Sandy Koufax is the most overrated player in baseball history. Even with a peak adjustment, I would not be surprised to see him end up behind Drysadale on my ballot (of off my ballot).

Well, obviously very few people would use a completely career metric like WS or WARP for their HoM voting. This in no way invalidates WS or WAARP, any more than it invalidates long-loved measures like 'career hits' (elect Z Wheat!), home runs (Kingman) or SBs (Vincent Van Go). If anything, I would venture to be so bold as to say I would far rather make up my ballot using career WARP3 or WS than ANY other single measure.

Does it then necessarily follow that we all need to factor in a heavy dose of peak? Maybe...or maybe simply moving the 'replacement' baseline up would go a long way to ensuring that Koufax>>Drysdale.

While I'm irritating members of my dad's generation by dumping on their legends, anyone else unimpressed by Whitey Ford's HOM resume?

My nominees for most overrated would not be a guy who dominated for 3-5 years. It would be somebody they kept giving a job, year after year, long after it was obvious he was a pretty average player. No names, just conceptual at this point.

But I do agree that in light of everything I've learned over the past 60 "years," it will be interesting to start rating the stars of my childhood. If they rate highly using the same methods I've been using, great. If not, then do I stick to my methods or do I take the emotionally satisfying route of voting for them anyway?

Whitey Ford looks OK to me. Yes 236-106 was because he played for the Yankees, but ERA+ of 132 is 11 points better than Drysdale and 1 point above Koufax, and he went on for much longer than Koufax. Those '50s Yankees teams look surprisingly unimpressive -- the pennants were really mostly down to Ford, Mantle and Berra.

sunnyday2, if a guy goes on being average year after year, he goes on deserving a job, and in the end builds lots of value or Merit. On the whole, however, he doesn't get overrated by history -- conmtemporaries I think rated Koufax above Spahn, which is silly however you cut it (yes, lower ERA+, but 2 1/2 times as much career, and that's without adding back 3 full years of WWII credit.)

karl, I really wasn't thinking of Beckley.

But we're not building a team here, but a HoM. A guy who is average for 20 years is not a HoMer (or a HoFer). Guys who make the HoF without ever being an all-star, that would be my definition of overrated.

Now I suppose the Raffy fans are going to be on my case.

While I'm irritating members of my dad's generation by dumping on their legends, anyone else unimpressed by Whitey Ford's HOM resume?

He doesn't look good by WARP that's for sure. The difference between Whitey and Drysdale by WARP is hard to understand. Whitey has a 132 ERA+ and 3170 IP is usually enough to calm worries of a short career. Contrast that to Drysdale/Marichal's 121/122 in 3400/3500.

So far, Chris J's RSI page just talks about the ridiculous run support that Whitey got in his overrated 1961 season. I'd like to hear more about whether Stengel really did leverage Ford against upper division opponents in the preceding years. (perhaps that's already in the MOWP data and I don't know how to translate it). Chris often fleshes out the comments on pitchers as they become eligible here.

Anyhow, some might give Ford war credit for missing 1951-52 (though I'm less inclined give war credit for pitchers). Also, some may give him credit for matching his career ERA for 146 IP in the World Series.

He'll certainly need discussion, but I think he'll get quite a few votes. Sixteen years to go.

Sunnyday2, your point gets at Beckley, of course it does -- he's the longest career without a big peak we've seen, though he was well above average for pretty well all of it, and "All-Star" in several years (would have been fun to design a 3-way All-Star game for 1890!) MY response was simply that a player who was NEVER an All-Star, even if he played forever (and it was rational to pick him) not only shouldn't be in the HOM but wouldn't be overrated either. Raffy isn't overrated, in general -- certainly hasn't been till he started popping up on career leaderboards. To be overrated, you need to dazzle, and the average don't dazzle. Dizzy Dean, whose top seasons were good but not all-time great, is a classic case of an overrated player. Nomar -- sniff -- looks like having been another.

The average (of course, I really mean the above average non-all star) dazzles BBWAA members if it gets near 500 HR or 3000 H. I always wished that Dave Kingman had hit 500 just to put them to the text.

DavidFoss, the WARP comparison between Ford and Bob Friend is stunning, and MUST blow a hole in these sabermetric measures. Friend (who I'd literally never heard of till 5 minutes ago) was 197-230, with an ERA+ of 107.

DavidFoss, the WARP comparison between Ford and Bob Friend is stunning, and MUST blow a hole in these sabermetric measures. Friend (who I'd literally never heard of till 5 minutes ago) was 197-230, with an ERA+ of 107.

Well, the 107 ERA+ shows that Friend had value. His run support looks positively dreadful, though, some of those early 50s Pirates teams were quite brutal. (His OPS+ was negative so a bit of that fault is his.) While 107 ERA+ is decent its not in Ford/Marichal/Drysdale territory. A comparison between Friend and Burdette is probably more apt.

Some interesting discussions to come especially as we are getting to more players that people remember. I also like the fact that the "living" tag is no longer needed, but now assumed.

Whitey Ford and Sandy Koufax are an interesting pair to consider because both essentially had it all working for them.

Ford was a lefty in Yankee Stadium when Death Valley stretched well over 400 feet. He got good offensive support and good defensive support. He pitched for dynastic teams. He wasn't overworked and/or remained consistently healthy. His teams were typically on the vanguard of bullpen usage. And he pitched for the Yankees and has the aura and mystique thing.

Koufax similarly pitched in super-friendly Dodger Stadium. Had good offensive and defensive support. Pitched for dynastic teams. Pitched for teams that typically had good bullpens. Went out in peak form so he never had a decline phase to counter balance his dominance. And his 1960s teams do have a certain aura/mystique factor in the public's mind.

Add it all up, and you've got two guys with a lot of the contextual ingredients needed to create the illusion that they were better than they may actually have been.

The obvious counter example to them is someone like Bert Blyleven who pitched for a lot of bad teams in second- and third-tier markets, often in tough parks for pitchers, in a DH league, with generally subpar support, and whose best seasons didn't happen to coincide with the years his teams were good but did coincide with the years that someone else in the league had a monster year.

Add it all up, and you've got two guys with a lot of the contextual ingredients needed to create the illusion that they were better than they may actually have been.

Well, we have to be fair to these guys too. I mean part of the reason for the dynasties is because of the great players that were there. We're not talking about Bobby Richardson and Maury Wills, here.

Also, I'm a huge Blyleven fan (born in MN) and would like nothing more than a unamimous first ballot induction, but the talk of his wallowing for poor teams is way overblown. He's got two WS rings. Most of the teams he played were at least average in offense. His poor won/loss record is indeed one of the stranger anomalies out there -- but he had an extreme distribution of game performances which were weighted more towards shutouts and shellings than the usual pitcher.

Anyhow, I look forward to a full discussion thread for each of these guys when they become eligible.

I have been using Retrosheet to do workups for some pitchers and decided to look at Ford. Using Retrosheet, there is definitely evidence that Ford was used specifically to face the top 2 teams the Yankees had to beat that year. This was usually the White Sox and the Indians. I'll do the write up at the correct time, but in summary there are multiple seasons where roughly 50% of his starts are against those two teams. Also, in the 50s he did not seem to have great run support - at least while he was in the game. I don't know why this occurred, but in many years, if Ford got a No Decision, the Yankees almost always won - with even a better percentage than Ford had.

To really summarize: Casey Stengal's usage pattern dramatically affected Ford's overall numbers and I would definitely argue his "real" value is not represented by Win Shares from 1953 to 1960. (I haven't looked at 1961-65 yet.)

Friend (who I'd literally never heard of till 5 minutes ago) was 197-230, with an ERA+ of 107.

When I was a kid, Friend may have been the pitcher most people spoke about when it came to the unreliability of W-L. Not from sabermeticians, mind you (I had never even heard the term during the seventies), but from writers and old ballplayers.

As for Whitey Ford, my dad photographed him and the Mick at the time of their inductions into the HOF. Since my father knew I liked baseball, he asked me if I wanted their autographs. Being the baseball ignoramus I was back then, I said no. I mean, we weren't talking Duffy Dyer or Jim Beauchamp here. :-)

My Dad actually had a chance to go out drinking with the two after the shoot, but he declined. Probably for the best, but imagine the stories they could have told!

WRT Ford, for those giving war time adjustments, please notes he mised '51 and '52 in Korea.

I haven't MOWPed him yet, but one of my inspirations for figuring that stuff out is old stories I've heard about how he and Billy Pierce used to face off against each other in the 1950s. He hadd a .693 winning percentage under Stengal, and .769 under Houk & Berra.

His teammates went .610 under Stengal (not including his lost years in Korea) and .603 the next four years. That's especially impressive when you figure if you include Ford's W/L percentages, it swings back: a .621 record under Stengal and .631 under Houk/Berra.

As for Bob Friend, even given his actual cruddy run support he didn't win that many games. I reckon as him winning 12 fewer than he should have, though that doesn't take into account run distribution across games.

Quick eligibility question.

When is Alonzo Perry eligible?

Thanks!

When is Alonzo Perry eligible?

His date of eligibility hasn't yet been considered, but, if the Riley biography is correct, he played his last year of organized baseball in 1963 in Mexico at the age of 40. Since he did not play in the majors, his eligibility clock would start then, making him eligible (I think) in 1969.

Elect 11 in five years.
Some will be from the backlog.

Spahn, Mantle, Mathews.

Five more at the top of Dan Greenia's lists will contend for the other eight spots, but I don't believe Fox, Roberts, Ford, Boyer, and Drysdale will all waltz in.

Others have mentioned Sievers and Koufax. I guess Elston Howard will also garner support with a second-rate major-league career.

Curt Flood will probably get a special investigation but not much support.

Paul, well, first we elect 9 in 5 years (1960-64).

1960--Newhouser (?) and backlog of which Medwick is not atop but by a razor thin margin over Ruffing and Jennings, though Jennings, appearing on 25 ballots, seems to have less upside

1961--Kiner (?) or backlog, another of Medwick-Ruffing-Jennings

1962--Robinson and Feller, easy

1963--Campy and 1 more backlog, which would appear to be another of the Medwick-Ruffing-Jennings cluster

1964--Will be very interesting. Reese and Lemon look like winners to me but then so does Ralph Kiner. They are not so dominant that we can't think about 2 more from the backlog, which now could be the last of the Medwick-Ruffing-Jennings group or one or both of the Ferrell-Mackey battery

My gut says the new guys--Kiner, Reese and Lemon--get thumbs up, which means that only Medwick and Ruffing (or Jennings) (2 of the 3) go in and the backlog stays, well, back logged.

But if Kiner, Lemon and Reese all fall short, then you could have Medwick, Jennings, Ruffing, Mackey and Ferrell.

Is it time for everybody to take a very hard look (not today but over the next 5 years) at:

• Ruffing, Ferrell, Rixey, Griffith, the top pitchers
• Mackey, Bresnahan, Trouppe
• Averill against the world (of "hitters") and expecially Sisler, who received a very nice endorsement yesterday (was that on the 1960 ballot discussion thread?)

Sunnyday2,

I think your forecast for the upcoming elections is forgetting a couple important guys.

1962: Monte Irvin, Bus Clarkson, Phil Rizzuto
1964: Sal Maglie

Irvin will battle Feller and J-Rob pretty hard. My initial translations indicate that he's a bona fide monster candidate. The SS-lovers will love Rizzuto with war credit. And Maglie will merit a long look. I'm think we'll elect at least one fewer backlogger than you think, possibly two...especially when Rizzuto's peak comes up against Reese's career and both get war credit.

Also Newhouser should be a strong barometer for Lemon whose career fits neatly in with the Ferrell/Newhouser/Walters/Matlock/Mendez group.

You're right about Irvin, he needs to be in the mix.

This is the second mention of Rizzuto the past week or two as a viable candidate. His "peak" consists of one year (1950) and is not that far ahead of a couple of other Reese seasons (1947,1954). Outside of the one year, Reese's prime is much better. Reese has a huge 2700 PA advantage. Yes, the two met head to head in six WS, but they are much different candidates.

One thing to note is that it appears that at least one of Medwick/Ruffing/Jennings will go in *this year* (1960). Anyone have any strong objections should speak up now. It would take a Sewell-esque re-evaluation to stop eventual induction, I suppose (but that's happened before).

If Kiner is elected, it will call for a reevaluation of Berger, Klein, and Hack Wilson. I don't think he'll go in.

Rizzuto has no better case than Joe Sewell.

Irvin has a good chance of being elected with Campanella in 1963, but Feller/Robinson is a lock for 1962.

I wouldn't try to predict Lemon or Maglie or Clarkson yet.

I have looked over Kiner and I don't think I like him as much as Keller (with war credit fo course). I am a peak voter but I will probably have Ralph in the bottom third of my ballot, I dont' think he is a lock.

Does Kiner deserve War Credit?

And how much of a candidate is Vern Stephens? He was a fantastic hitter for a shortstop but his uberstat number put him about even with Sewell for me. I have Sewell at #37 I guess.

Does Kiner deserve War Credit?

Ralph Kiner SABR Bio

He was playing for Albany in the Class A Eastern League in 1941-42. With no war, its possible he might have made the majors before 1946 but I don't know how he could be given any war credit.

(I have to remember to repost that link to the Kiner thread and appears in a week and a half.)

I sure don't agree that Monte Irvin, even best case, will push Jackie and Feller, but you're right, he could easily be the top backlogger in '63. My oversight.

I'm a SS lover but sorry, not a Rizzuto lover. Boudreau went PHoM a year or two later for me than for the consensus and I'm a peak guy. It takes more than one year to make a proper peak. Anybody who thinks Rizzuto has any case at all has *got* to go for Pee Wee Reese, BTW. Pee Wee has everything Rizzuto has got, plus about 50 percent. Not sure Rizzuto ranks ahead of Dave Bancroft or Dick Lundy (in the 40s).

Don't know nuthin' 'bout Bus Clarkson. And if I double up on Maglie's ML value he still comes up short. But show me.

As for Kiner vs. other short career high OPS OFers, it's my impression, no numbers right in front of me at present, that Ralphie's OBA blows 'em all away. Not to mention I understand he knocked it out of the park now and again. I will be surprised if anybody has the combination of OBA and SA that he has, not Keller or Klein or Wilson, much less Berger. But I promise to look it up.

But like somebody said over on another thread, is Ruffing really better than Rixey? I don't see it.

Ralph Kiner is currently outside of my consideration set. Not enough bulk. Chris is right that he's too much Hack Kleinberger to have a big-time case.

DavidFoss, it was me who previously mentioned Rizzuto, so I should take blame for that. I have Reese ahead of him, but I have Rizzuto ahead of the Joe Sewell gang. I also have Stephens ahead of them, but only by the thinnest of margins. Rizzuto essentially heads that pack. Today I see them this way (asterisks mean w/ war credit; parens means not eligible at this time):

(Grich)
(Hack)
(Reese*)
(Herman)
(Glasscock)
(J Collins)
(Larkin)
Jennings
Moore
Monroe
Childs
(Boudreau)
Doyle
(Trammell)
(Rizzuto*)
(N Fox)
Long
(Wallace)
Williamson (I put the early 3Bs withthe IFs)
Doerr
(McpHee)
(Whitaker)
(Kent)
(Stephens)
Dunlap
Pesky*
Gordon*
Sewell
(Ozzie)
McGraw
Latham(???)
Bancroft
(Fregosi)
(Knoblauch)
Traynor
Evers
Lazzeri
Gardner
Nash
McKean
Tinker

The wild cards come in three flavors:
NEGRO LEAGUERS/LATINOS
(Marvin Williams)
(Jim Gilliam)
(Bobby Avila)
(Bus Clarkson)
(Artie Wilson)
(Bonnie Serrell)
Scales
Hughes
Allen
Joseph
J Johnson
Lundy
et al.

GUYS WHO MIGHT GET WAR CREDIT BUT I'M NOT SURE
Al Dark

ACTIVE PLAYERS
A-Rod
Jeter
Nomar
Tejada
Renteria
Alfonzo
B Boone
et al.

Of course my war-credit system could change, or the amount I'm willing to offer could change, etc, so my rankings are a bit fluid, but this is where they've settled for the past few months.

Lemon was in the war, I'm not convinced he deserves war credit though...

DavidFoss, it was me who previously mentioned Rizzuto, so I should take blame for that. I have Reese ahead of him, but I have Rizzuto ahead of the Joe Sewell gang.

No worries. There's really no blame for good HOM discussion! :-) Anyhow, that's an impressive list. That could go into a SS thread (or 2B/3B thread, too). Looking at your list, you have indeed have a lot of players in between Reese/Rizzuto with the current in/out line in between the two. If Rizzuto is below Doyle/Childs he's not very likely to be quickly inducted. I'll bite my toungue now and wait for relevant years/threads. :-)

If Kiner is elected, it will call for a reevaluation of Berger, Klein, and Hack Wilson. I don't think he'll go in.

Put me down as not a big fan of Ralph Kramden myself.

Continuing from #502. New eligibles 1976-80:

1976 (May 1)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
203 54.8 1959 Bob Allison-RF/LF (1995)
181 62.1 1958 Johnny Roseboro-C (2002)
165 35.8 1956 Tito Francona-LF/1B
132 54.2 1952 Ron Kline-RP
126 47.0 1960 Earl Wilson-P (2005)
118 46.5 1957 Mike McCormick-P
116 34.9 1958 Jim Davenport-3B
099 38.8 1957 Don Cardwell-P
117 25.5 1963 Pete Ward-3B
098 31.8 1956 Hank Aguirre-RP (1994)
100 23.8 1963 Jimmie Hall-CF/LF
1977 (May 15)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
332 115.0 1954 Ernie Banks-SS/1B
257 90.6 1955 Jim Bunning-P
175 71.3 1954 Camilo Pascual-P
183 51.0 1960 Tony Gonzalez-CF
160 52.9 1955 Clete Boyer-3B
145 49.7 1958 Jim “Mudcat” Grant-P
137 52.0 1960 Jim Maloney-P
148 47.4 1962 Dean Chance-P
134 36.3 1961 Zoilo Versalles-SS (1995)
114 42.0 1958 Stan Williams-P
114 41.8 1960 Dick Ellsworth-P
110 40.8 1955 Dick Hall-RP
123 31.0 1959 Lee Maye-LF/RF (2002)
118 32.1 1961 Chuck Hinton-LF/RF
096 37.4 1960 Clay Dalrymple-C
109 31.3 1962 Mack Jones-CF/LF (2004)
105 24.3 1964 Tony Conigliaro-RF (1990)
1978 (May 29)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
377 122.4 1955 Roberto Clemente-RF (1972)
256 92.4 1952 Hoyt Wilhelm-RP (2002)
219 86.5 1956 Bill Mazeroski-2B
253 71.6 1959 Maury Wills-SS
179 56.5 1962 Tom Haller-C (2004)
194 44.7 1964 Don Buford-LF/2B
148 48.2 1964 Wes Parker-1B
162 41.2 1961 Don Mincher-1B
145 42.9 1960 Ron Hansen-SS
133 47.9 1963 Gary Peters-P
135 43.4 1960 Julian Javier-2B
119 45.1 1962 Joe Horlen-P
136 38.5 1962 Donn Clendenon-1B
108 42.4 1956 Moe Drabowsky-RP
115 34.6 1964 Denny McLain-P
107 37.0 1955 Ted Abernathy-RP
100 35.2 1960 Phil Regan-RP
097 34.7 1964 Bobby Knoop-2B
108 27.6 1965 Curt Blefary-LF (2001)
106 28.3 1965 Jim Lefebvre-2B
1979 (June 12)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
642 208.1 1951 Willie Mays-CF
293 85.0 1956 Luis Aparicio-SS
297 73.9 1960 Frank Howard-LF/RF
241 70.6 1959 Johnny Callison-RF
241 59.2 1958 Felipe Alou-RF/CF
210 71.1 1958 Milt Pappas-P
142 54.1 1960 Chris Short-P (1991)
125 47.1 1961 Ron Perranoski-RP
139 38.5 1966 Tommie Agee-CF (2001)
115 43.1 1964 Gene Alley-SS
139 33.1 1962 Joe Pepitone-1B
103 35.9 1961 Bobby Bolin-P
106 33.1 1960 Eddie Fisher-RP
098 32.2 1963 Ray Culp-P
105 28.2 1965 Rick Reichardt-LF
108 25.7 1967 Mike Andrews-2B
1980 (June 26)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
443 118.4 1954 Al Kaline-RF
324 105.9 1960 Ron Santo-3B
315 95.1 1959 Norm Cash-1B (1986)
310 86.6 1958 Orlando Cepeda-1B
263 92.2 1960 Juan Marichal-P
241 62.0 1961 Dick McAuliffe-2B/SS
177 63.1 1964 Mel Stottlemyre-P
191 47.0 1963 Ron Hunt-2B
176 52.1 1962 Denis Menke-SS
179 47.8 1961 Matty Alou-CF
149 57.5 1961 Johnny Edwards-C
135 51.4 1957 Don McMahon-RP (1987)
148 41.1 1964 Jim Ray Hart-3B
125 42.4 1957 Juan Pizarro-P
124 40.7 1962 Bob Veale-P
117 42.4 1964 Dick Green-2B
116 36.4 1960 Steve Barber-P
108 38.9 1967 Don Wilson-P (1975)
127 30.3 1965 Horace Clarke-2B
096 39.2 1959 Bob Miller-RP (1993)
113 31.8 1962 Jim Hickman-RF/CF
125 26.9 1965 Glenn Beckert-2B
120 24.9 1967 Mike Epstein-1B
102 17.7 1965 Paul Schaal-3B

If you run through the lists through the 1970s and predict elections, I think you will be amazed how far down into our backlog you get. Fans of Browning, Welch, Moore, Sewell, Roush, ec. should not dispair. There is room in the HoM for at least a few such players if they can get some upward momentum going.

Yes, and Frank Howard, Norm Cash, and Orlando Cepeda, whom I never would have guessed . . .

and Elston Howard.

Thanks as always, DanG.

It's going to be really weird to be voting on so many not-dead guys.