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— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Thursday, August 28, 2003

New Eligibles Year by Year

Here we go, if someone can post them for the next 5-10 years, and then maintain this that would be great.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 28, 2003 at 04:20 PM | 959 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   601. sunnyday2 Posted: February 15, 2006 at 03:08 AM (#1862414)
>With nobody on base, tie ballgames and one-run leads would have the same leverage.

Exactly my point. It was insinuated above that saves necessarily represent higher leverage.

Now I don't know how leverage is really computed, but:

>In a tie-game, you can't blow more than half a game (assuming you're 50:50 to win). With a one-run lead, you can blow almost a whole game, turning a near-win into a loss. So Saves are usually higher leverage than relief Wins.

This is not exactly intuitive. If a guy throws a perfect 9th inning in a tie game ON THE ROAD or if he throws a perfect 9th inning with a one-run leade in the same situation, well, he performed exactly the same. The fact that the outcome is different was determined by somebody else. Now say his team comes back in the 10th to score a run and then somebody else throws the 10th and gets the save (and he gets the win), well, he performend the same as if he had gotten the save. That is, he threw a perfrect inning.

In a sense, it seems to me that if the "leverage," as sabergeeks define it, is higher for the save than the win, well, I guess it's all about winning.

Or, is it about not losing? In this sense, the tie game, to me, has more leverage. If he screws up--if he gives up even one run--his team loses without recourse of another turn at bat. With a 1-run lead, he blows the save, giving up one run, well, his team lives to fight another inning. I dunno, I don't get it.

To me leverage is pretty inscrutable. My question is, how effective was a guy? Now, a reliever has to be pretty flippin' effective to make up for the lack of innings, and that is why we will probably elect 20-25 starters from the era of the relief specialist, and about 3-4 relievers. The threshold ERA+ for relievers will probably be 20 points higher for a career and 50 or more higher for a peak. And so it should. But I don't need leverage to elect a couple-3. I just wanna know how effective they were, and Wilhelm was just plain off the map.
   602. KJOK Posted: February 15, 2006 at 04:37 AM (#1862508)
We have retrosheet for the latter half of Wilhelm's career.

In a few weeks, I believe we'll have MOST of his career covered by Retrosheet (1957 on).
   603. Paul Wendt Posted: February 15, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#1863368)
3) Another addition that I should’ve done long ago, there is an asterisk by players who are eligible earlier than the BBWAA rules, due to ignoring token appearances at the end of their career.

Yeah, go back and give Minoso a star.

--
Now I don't know how leverage is really computed,
. . .
if the "leverage," as sabergeeks define it, is higher for the save than the win, well, I guess it's all about winning.


It is measured in different ways, of course, and much of the debate is about the difference between the idea and the measure.

See my presentation of the decision factor introduced by Palmer ten years ago.
early measure of leverage (TB4, 1995)

Immediately above that section of the article, note the impact on TPI for John Hiller 1973 : TPI = 3.6 in TB3, 6.7 in TB4.
   604. jimd Posted: February 15, 2006 at 11:15 PM (#1863479)
If a guy throws a perfect 9th inning in a tie game ON THE ROAD or if he throws a perfect 9th inning with a one-run leade in the same situation, well, he performed exactly the same.

Here's one way of looking at this situation.

Say the other team has a 30% chance of scoring in the inning in question, including 10% chance of multiple runs.
(I don't know how close this is to real life but it can't be too far off.)

In the Tie on the Road, when the bottom of the 9th starts the other team has a 65% chance of winning (30% now plus 35%=70%*50% in extras).
The value of the perfect 9th inning is .15 Wins (it increases his team's chances from 35% to 50%).
The cost of giving up runs is .35 Wins (it decreases his team's chances from 35% to 0%).
Total swing .15+.35 = .50 Wins (half-a-game, tie vs. loss). Expected value 0.

In the 1-run lead on the road, when the inning starts the other team has a 20% chance of winning (10% now plus 10%=20%*50% to tie then win in extras).
The value of the perfect 9th inning is .20 Wins (it increases his team's chances from 80% to 100%).
The cost of giving up one run is .30 wins (it decreases his team's chances from 80% to 50%).
The cost of giving up multiple runs is .80 Wins (it decreases his team's chances from 80% to 0%).
Total swing .20+.80 = 1.00 Wins (whole-game, win vs. loss). Expected value 0.

From this perspective, the stakes (variance) appear to be higher with the 1-run lead.
(Not surprising because more is at stake, ie a nearly won game.)
   605. OCF Posted: February 16, 2006 at 01:38 AM (#1863641)
The leverage of a pitcher used in the Grove/3F Brown model wouldn't, on a gross level, be that much different than the leverage of a typical starter, just becuase most of that pitcher's innings would happen in ordinary rotation starts. But the relief appearances would raise the leverage at least by a little. That's assuming that those are high-leverage relief appearances, but there's a common sense aspect to it from the manager's side: if you're going to burn up some of Lefty Grove's availability by using him in relief, you'd damn well better using him when it really matters.

I bring this up because there's a least a faint whiff of this pattern with Billy Pierce.
   606. Daryn Posted: March 15, 2006 at 09:33 PM (#1899851)
If I vote for Sadaharu Oh in 1986, will my ballot count?
   607. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 15, 2006 at 09:53 PM (#1899872)
If I vote for Sadaharu Oh in 1986, will my ballot count?

No.
   608. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: March 15, 2006 at 10:59 PM (#1899998)
John,

-Would Daryn's entire ballot be spoiled?
-Would the remaining players on his ballot be counted in the spot they are listed?
-Would only those players ahead of Oh on the ballot be counted?
-Would the remaining players on his ballot be counted in the spot they are listed except for those below the Oh vote moving up by a slot?
   609. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 15, 2006 at 11:17 PM (#1900036)
-Would Daryn's entire ballot be spoiled?
-Would the remaining players on his ballot be counted in the spot they are listed?
-Would only those players ahead of Oh on the ballot be counted?
-Would the remaining players on his ballot be counted in the spot they are listed except for those below the Oh vote moving up by a slot?


If Daryn had more than 15 players listed, I would just ignore Oh and then move the players after him up one. If there were only 15 players listed, however, then his ballot would be disqualified.

Believe me, I understand wanting to place him on the ballot. Check some of the earlier threads where I argued for his inclusion. But Joe felt (and I now agree) that we should limit the HoM to players who would be eligible to the HOF so we can make a better comparison between the two Halls.

Joe also mentioned another HoM which would be made up of foreign players like Oh somewhere in the future.
   610. jimd Posted: March 16, 2006 at 02:14 AM (#1900494)
Oh no! No Oh!
   611. Daryn Posted: March 16, 2006 at 03:15 AM (#1900571)
If the HoF inducts Oh, then can I put him on my ballot? I believe the HoF will
induct Oh when they induct Ichiro.
   612. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: March 16, 2006 at 03:23 AM (#1900589)
If the HoF inducts Oh, then can I put him on my ballot? I believe the HoF will
induct Oh when they induct Ichiro.


If that's the case, then a definite yes, Daryn.
   613. Howie Menckel Posted: March 25, 2006 at 04:17 AM (#1917196)
reposting the 'cheat sheet' short version for the rest of the 1970s..

1974 (April 3)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
565 154.4 1951 Mickey Mantle-CF (1995)
450 130.5 1952 Eddie Mathews-3B (2001)
273 74.3 1956 Rocky Colavito-RF
225 87.6 1955 Larry Jackson-P (1990)
203 63.8 1955 Elston Howard-C (1980)
223 53.7 1957 Roger Maris-RF (1985)

1975 (April 17)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
279 94.7 1955 Ken Boyer-3B (1982)
258 101.9 1956 Don Drysdale-P (1993)
221 68.4 1958 Curt Flood-CF (1997)
139 59.0 1953 Roy Face-RP

1976 (May 1)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
203 54.8 1959 Bob Allison-RF/LF (1995)
181 62.1 1958 Johnny Roseboro-C (2002)

1977 (May 15)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
332 115.0 1954 Ernie Banks-SS/1B
257 90.6 1955 Jim Bunning-P
175 71.3 1954 Camilo Pascual-P

1978 (May 29)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
377 122.4 1955 Roberto Clemente-RF (1972)
256 92.4 1952 Hoyt Wilhelm-RP (2002)
219 86.5 1956 Bill Mazeroski-2B
253 71.6 1959 Maury Wills-SS

1979 (June 12)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
642 208.1 1951 Willie Mays-CF
293 85.0 1956 Luis Aparicio-SS
297 73.9 1960 Frank Howard-LF/RF
210 71.1 1958 Milt Pappas-P
   614. Michael Bass Posted: March 25, 2006 at 04:24 AM (#1917210)
We've been spoiled by a number of fun elections; any chance we can skip the discussion next week and skip to the coronoation? ;)
   615. DavidFoss Posted: March 26, 2006 at 12:54 AM (#1918300)
any chance we can skip the discussion next week and skip to the coronoation?

:-)

There's been much talk of backlog-reevaluations of late. This would give people the time to have those types of discussions. The basketball tournament will be over by then and I believe that is also opening day.
   616. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 27, 2006 at 01:31 AM (#1920021)
1975 could be fun, two guys who are really borderline as I see it. I think that Boyer might be ballot worthy and I don't know about Drysdale yet.
   617. sunnyday2 Posted: March 27, 2006 at 02:27 AM (#1920123)
Bob Allison might not be a HoMer, but he is a real favorite. An outstanding ballplayer and a great guy. After he retired he was a high ranking executive at the local Coke bottler. I actually cleaned his office--my night job while I was in college. I forget what he died of but he died very young. It wasn't Lou Gehrig's disease, it might have been Parkinson's. It was one of thsoe that puts you in a wheel chair.
   618. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:19 AM (#1920174)
I just checked Flood; even if you give him a last third of his career, he's not enough of a hitter for my liking; presumably another case where WS was a bit generous to CF (because with the last third he's be 330WS, but still only 100 OPS+.) But YMMV, I would imagine; it's an interesting case.
   619. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: March 27, 2006 at 03:58 AM (#1920206)
How did you do your projections karl?
   620. karlmagnus Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:46 AM (#1920325)
Would you believe multiplied his totals to 1969 by 3/2 (ducks to avoid hail of rocks from enraged sabermetricians.) In 1969 he was 31 and off only a bit from '68; it seems reasonable to assume he lost about 1/3 of his career. Very rough, I know, but gives a ballpark figure to look at. Can't see how you'd get his OPS+ up to 120 though, which he really needs to be a HOMer.
   621. DavidFoss Posted: March 27, 2006 at 04:18 PM (#1920828)
Flood looks a lot like Willie Davis. I don't see it for either of those two.
   622. Ardo Posted: April 03, 2006 at 03:41 AM (#1931823)
I like both Boyer and Drysdale. Tentatively, they will fall 2-3 behind Mendez in '75.
   623. sunnyday2 Posted: April 07, 2006 at 01:25 PM (#1945165)
Looking ahead between now and 1991, we will elect 32.

1. There are in the neighborhood of 20-24 possible 1st or 2nd* ballot guys: Mantle, Mathews, Banks, Clemente, Mays, Kaline, Santo, Gibson, Killebrew, Aaron, F. Robby, Billy Williams, McCovey, Stargell, Yaz, Bench, Gaylerd, Morgan, Palmer and Fergie.*

* Billy and Fergie are 2nd year not 1st because of guys named Aaron, F. Robinson, Yaz, Bench and Gaylerd.

2. The other possible 1st ballot guys, or else who go to the front of the backlog, are: Drysdale, Bunning, Wilhelm, Marichal, B. Robinson and Brock. As you can see, I am mostly feeling a bit uncertain about how the pitchers will be evaluated, though that is largely a question of whether they go in the 1st year or the 2nd or 3rd. For B. Robby and Brock, it is more a question of whether they will get elected at all or whether they will be the second coming of Pie Traynor and Jimmy Ryan. But for now, I'm sticking my neck out and saying that they go to the head of the backlog and get elected within 4-5 years.

3. Then there are a bunch of head-of-the-backlog types coming up as well: K. Boyer, Aparicio, Cepeda, D. Allen, J. Torre, Jimmy Wynn, Jim Kaat. I believe these guys will get elected too, by 1991, though several are iffy.

4. Then there are other solid backlog guys: F. Howard, N. Cash, Freehan, Pinson, Bando, Reggie Smith and Tiant. I don't see any of them getting elected but am not confident about that.

5. Then there is our existing backlog of Mackey, Sisler, W. Brown, Redding, Gordon, Mendez, Minoso, GVH and Kiner. I see us going 9 deep on that list, which would be through and inclusive of Kiner. Next in line are Dobie Moore, Beckley, Duffy, Sewell, Browning and Pierce.

In summary, if my lists in #1 and #2 above are correct, we will elect 16 from #3, #4 and #5. I have 7 from #3 and 9 from #5 and none from #4. Along with B. Robby and Brock, well, along with Dick Allen, who I probably should have in #3 rather than #2, it comes down to match-ups like these:

B. Robby vs. Dobie Moore
Brock vs. GVH
D. Allen vs. G. Sisler
Cepeda vs. W. Brown
Kaat vs. Redding
Tiant vs. Mendez
Torre vs. Gordon
Wynn vs. Minoso
Freehan vs. Mackey
F. Howard vs. Kiner
Cash vs. Beckley
Bando vs. Sewell
Reggie Smith vs. Duffy
Pinson vs. Browning

Or create your own match-ups. But I hope nobody's preference runs in every case to the first name of each matched pair.
   624. Daryn Posted: April 07, 2006 at 02:48 PM (#1945292)
Looking ahead between now and 1991, we will elect <strike>32</strike> 42.

FTFY.

Beckley should make it by the mid-90s then.
   625. Paul Wendt Posted: April 07, 2006 at 02:57 PM (#1945315)
Marc evidently used 42 in his analysis, as
42-26=16
In summary, if my lists in #1 and #2 above are correct, we will elect 16 from #3, #4 and #5.
   626. Paul Wendt Posted: April 07, 2006 at 03:04 PM (#1945331)
Would you believe multiplied his totals to 1969 by 3/2

and they say cliometrics isn't a science.
   627. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 07, 2006 at 04:38 PM (#1945547)
It's going to be really interesting to see how our electorate reacts to the diminishing horizon of 2007. Guys like Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams all seem like easy HOMers now, but when we start running them up against the backlog and sensing how the window grows smaller each year (especially if you vote with positional balance in mind), it's going to get interesting quickly. So far, my own personal positional rankings have been a decent bellwether for the success of a candidate. Anyone outside my top 18 at each defensive position has generally had some problems. The main exceptions have been the troika of Ashburn/Bell/Carey, Bobby Doerr, Bill Terry, and Joe Medwick. Clemente, Stargell, Williams all fall around that 18th slot in my rankings. Brock falls lower (26), while Wynn is very close to that point as well. Interestingly, Bando, Freehan, Allen, Torre all fall within the top 18, and usually easily within. A superficial analysis suggests that I'd probably vote for them above Brooks and all those corner outfielders.

In some ways, a player like Torre, Freehan, or Allen may find it easier to get into the HOM than a player like Lou Brock. Their positions or peaks are likely to be taken more seriously as a basis for value, their circumstances (run environment, park, etc) understood better, and their total on-the-field contribution seen more holistically. I think they will leap forward.

Aparicio won't.
   628. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: April 07, 2006 at 05:23 PM (#1945667)
I think they will leap forward.

Aparicio won't.


If Little Louie does, he doesn't get a BoSox cap. ;-)
   629. Michael Bass Posted: April 07, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#1946106)
This may not be the place to ask this, and this may well have been discussed, but...

The lump election of Negro Leaguers this year has me wondering if we are going to
up our electees to keep pace? Or is the number of electees when we started the project
going to be the firm limit? Because (and I may be wrong on this), we're going to now have
far fewer electees than Cooperstown when we catch up to them in 2007.

My guess was that we had estimates in mind on elections per year, which probably would have
worked very well in normal circumstances...being 1-2 honorees off either way, big deal. But
a mass election like this was almost certainly not forseen.
   630. rawagman Posted: April 07, 2006 at 07:29 PM (#1946152)
that is a good point. I am relatively new at this, but if the idea was to get to an equal point with the HOF, shouldn't we make the minor adjustment necessary and have a few more years of 3 honorees?
   631. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: April 07, 2006 at 07:48 PM (#1946219)
My recolelction is that we talked about it already, and since we'll be at like 230 guys in 2007 and the HOF will be at 226 after this year that we'd be wicked close anyway so it didn't matter.

Or do I have our number wrong?
   632. jimd Posted: April 07, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#1946466)
The mass NeL induction makes up for a slowdown in the regular electees. The writers have had a couple of elect 1 years post 2001, and the VC reforms appear to have closed that door until it is reformed yet again. I think the formula expected about 20+ regular electees over the past 5 years, and then the BBWAA elected 8 and the regular VC 0.
   633. DavidFoss Posted: April 07, 2006 at 09:08 PM (#1946477)
My recolelction is that we talked about it already, and since we'll be at like 230 guys in 2007 and the HOF will be at 226 after this year that we'd be wicked close anyway so it didn't matter.

Or do I have our number wrong?


Yeah, this might be in the 'Number of Electees per Year' thread, but the impression I got was that we targetted the HOF total back in 2002 or so. In the years after we are slated at 3-4 a year while the HOF has been inducting less. Since mass induction allows them to catch up (and then some). We'll catch back up again by the end of the decade. The HOF is being much stingier on modern players. We don't have anything to worry about unless they redo the Vets Committee again (which is off radar at the moment but a long-term possibility).
   634. sunnyday2 Posted: April 07, 2006 at 10:00 PM (#1946541)
I agree. I wouldn't increase our numbers at this stage of the game.

Yes, I meant 42. My favorite number. (The meaning of life, the universe and everything.)
   635. Chris Fluit Posted: April 07, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#1946689)
Thanks for raising the question, Michael Bass. I was wondering the same thing.
   636. sunnyday2 Posted: April 08, 2006 at 02:35 PM (#1948370)
PS. The point of my little exercise was to see how deep into the backlog we are likely to get. Looks to me like 8-10 by 1990.

So, for me, what that means is, do I have the current backlog rated correctly out through about #25 or so (8-10 who might get elected either PoM of PHoM, plus tne next 15 who would fill up a ballot after those 8-10 are gone. Of course not all of the next 15 will ever be on my ballot because there will be new backloggers along the way. Still, nice to have a backlog to the backlog and not have to reinvent the wheel.

To put it another way, however, anything below about #25 on the current ballot (in the current backlog) is really a waste of time. And if in the interest of positional balance, this work about to about 3 at each position, so be it.

e.g. At catcher, it seems painfully obvious to me that Bresnahan, Mackey and Lombardi is all anyone needs to know. At 1B, Sisler, Chance, Beckley and/or Taylor. At 2B it's a little tougher, but Gordon, Doyle, Monroe (and for me Doerr who is not yet PHoM). Shortstop is really tough, I won't even mention the candidates now other than Dobie Moore. Not that many candidates at 3B though for me Ed Williamson would remain in the mix, though not for most. OF is also harder and especially CF where I could easily have 6-7 in my overall top 25. And of course pitchers remains difficult, and I would clarify that my consideration set oughta be 3 pitchers x 3-4 rotation slots, but then I'm up to 35 instead of 25. Oh well. Nobody said this was easy.

But I think I am about to abandon my top 100, it is too time consuming and below 25-35 it will never really matter anyway.
   637. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: April 08, 2006 at 03:45 PM (#1948434)
I would add Childs to the 2B mix, I can't see how he isn't better than Doyle and Monroe. At 3B, I like Al Rosen but understand why many do not. However, I believe that Bob Elliot (who is around #25 for me) is someone who gets overlooked. I would also add Trouppe at catcher, especially over Lombardi, who I have under Schang.

My top three at each position...

C
Trouppe
Howard
Bresnahan
Mackey (okay that is four, so sue me)

1B
Sisler
Chance
Taylor/Easter (cant' decide which was better)

2B
Childs
Gordon
Fox
Doyle

SS
Lundy
Rizzuto
Sewell
Stephens (all four are within 10 spots of each other and not in my top 25)

3B
Boyer (coming up soon)
Rosen
Elliot

Corner OF
Keller
Kiner
Browning
Brown
Cravath
Minoso

CF
Duffy
GVH
Oms

I guess that should be my top backlog, the best player I did't list there is Wally Berger who will be #24 fo rme this year.
   638. sunnyday2 Posted: April 08, 2006 at 04:06 PM (#1948457)
Good list. Forgot Childs and Fox. Mine was just "off the top."

Well, except you missed Dobie Moore, Ed Williamson and Pete Browning ;-)
   639. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: April 08, 2006 at 07:29 PM (#1948888)
Sunny,

I did completely forget about Moore, he is easily my top SS, and a top 7 guy on my ballot d'oh!

At the same time, I classify Browning as a corner OFer, so look again. We each have a d'oh!

Not the biggest fan of Williamson, I have looked over him before (though many 'years' ago now) and I am just not that impressed.
   640. DanG Posted: April 09, 2006 at 06:09 AM (#1950327)
In answer to Michael Bass in #671 above: In post #355 of the thread, Hall of Fame 2006 Negro Leagues Election, I posted this:

When our election schedule was established five years ago, the HOF had 211 players (188 MLB, 18 NeL, 2 Mgr (Griffith, McGraw), 3 Pioneer). Our schedule calls for 213 through the 2001 election.

Since then, our schedule has added 3 per year (15 players, brining our total to 228), while the HOF has added only 8 BBWAA selections. So these 12 elected by the Black ball committe gets us nearly back on schedule. The HOF now has 231 players, only three more than we will elect throught the 2006 election. In all likelihood, we will catch up with their total by 2008 (or 2009).
   641. Paul Wendt Posted: April 09, 2006 at 12:13 PM (#1950365)
Some people enter PhD programs with shorter time horizons than you need around here.
   642. jimd Posted: April 10, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#1953464)
The HOF now has 231 players, only three more than we will elect throught the 2006 election.

Sometime next June, we will be conducting our 2007 election. According to the current schedule, that will tie us with the current 2006 size of the HOF (assuming we don't elect any more Pioneer/Manager/Owner types as HOM players).

The size of the HOF surplus will depend on how many players are elected to the HOF in 2007. We should know that in January. At that point we can decide whether to stay on the existing schedule or to add some number of elect-4 elections down the stretch to align sizes by 2007.
   643. jimd Posted: April 10, 2006 at 07:34 PM (#1953539)
Sometime next June

That should be "Sometime next August"
   644. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2006 at 07:03 PM (#1998893)
a look at the top newcomers beyond the useless Allison/Roseboro crop coming up in 1976:

1977—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
332 115.0 1954 Ernie Banks-SS/1B
257 90.6 1955 Jim Bunning-P
175 71.3 1954 Camilo Pascual-P

1978—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
377 122.4 1955 Roberto Clemente-RF (1972)
256 92.4 1952 Hoyt Wilhelm-RP (2002)
219 86.5 1956 Bill Mazeroski-2B
253 71.6 1959 Maury Wills-SS

1979—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
642 208.1 1951 Willie Mays-CF
293 85.0 1956 Luis Aparicio-SS
297 73.9 1960 Frank Howard-LF/RF
210 71.1 1958 Milt Pappas-P


1980—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
443 118.4 1954 Al Kaline-RF
324 105.9 1960 Ron Santo-3B
315 95.1 1959 Norm Cash-1B (1986)
310 86.6 1958 Orlando Cepeda-1B
263 92.2 1960 Juan Marichal-P

1981—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
317 117.9 1959 Bob Gibson-P
371 99.2 1955 Harmon Killebrew-1B/3B
321 79.5 1958 Vada Pinson-CF (1995)
205 78.9 1959 Jim Perry-P
201 76.5 1960 Claude Osteen-P
199 69.4 1960 Leo Cardenas-SS
186 69.4 1956 Lindy McDaniel-RP

1982—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
643 199.8 1954 Hank Aaron-RF
519 153.3 1956 Frank Robinson-RF/LF
374 115.8 1961 Billy Williams-LF
322 94.6 1961 Willie Davis-CF
267 78.8 1963 Bill Freehan-C
245 63.9 1964 Tony Oliva-RF

1983—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 111.1 1957 Brooks Robinson-3B
315 102.5 1961 Joe Torre-C/1B
342 90.0 1964 Dick Allen-1B/3B
305 88.6 1963 Jim Wynn-CF

A couple of spots will be open for a weak 1984, but there likely will be a couple of 'new holdovers' to beat out the old holdovers even then.....
   645. Chris Cobb Posted: May 01, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#1999104)
Yeah, it'll be 2 from the backlog in 1976, then Bunning vs. the backlog in 1977 (probably Bunning wins), Aparicio vs. the backlog in 1979 (probably the backlog wins), and that'll be it for the backlog until 1984 or 1985.
   646. sunnyday2 Posted: May 01, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#1999113)
Excuse me, Bob Allison useless while Milt Pappas and Leo Cardenas make the cut here!? Hello!
   647. Howie Menckel Posted: May 01, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#1999125)
Well, Allison and Roseboro 'made the cut' in that respect not so many posts above.
In some cases I go a little extra to illustrate a disparity. In Cardenas's case, I wanted to list McDaniel just in case.
   648. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 01, 2006 at 09:16 PM (#1999130)
Marc, he meant '76 as a group. Pappas and Cardenas are obviously not the cream of the crop for their respective debuts.
   649. DanG Posted: May 22, 2006 at 02:59 PM (#2031937)
I was working on the new eligibles lists for 1991-95 and ran across Warren Cromartie on BB-ref. He has this 7-year gap!
1983 29 MON NL 120  360
1991 37 KCR AL  69  131 

At first I thought maybe he'd have to be added to the 1989 eligibles. But I found he was whomping on Japanese pitching for most of that time, so I decided he should go with the 1997 newbies. His HoM case will greatly depend on MLEs of his JL years.

Analysis of Japanese Leagues play will become increasingly important, beginning with Willie Davis in 1982.
   650. KJOK Posted: May 22, 2006 at 05:56 PM (#2032070)
Analysis of Japanese Leagues play will become increasingly important, beginning with Willie Davis in 1982

I don't see too many guys where this will be important. The best US players who played in Japan are probably:

Larry Doby
Willie Davis
Tony Fernandez
Rich Gossage

beyond those 4, you've got guys like:

Roy White
Davey Johnson
Bill Madlock
Dwayne Murphy
   651. DanG Posted: May 22, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#2032082)
New Eligibles 1991-1995

Notes:
1) Not many from the old backlog figure to make it in this period.
2) Since we are no longer dealing with Negro leaguers or war credit, and due also to MLB expansion, I’ve slightly raised the threshold for listing candidates. About 20 players were omitted in this period, who would’ve been listed under older limits.
3) Again, there is an asterisk by players who are eligible earlier than the BBWAA rules, due to ignoring token appearances at the end of their career.
4) It’s also possible I missed a death date or two; due to its increasing rarity I sometimes forget to check it.

1991 (December 11)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

384 124.5 1967 Rod Carew-2B/1B
358 102.3 1963 Rusty Staub-RF
305 81.5 1969 Al Oliver-CF/1B
240 87.9 1968 Jerry Koosman-P
188 81.1 1969 Rollie Fingers-RP
212 68.9 1974 Mike Hargrove-1B
219 60.4 1969 Richie Hebner-3B
203 63.0 1972 Garry Maddox-CF*
182 66.1 1973 Steve Rogers-P
179 63.8 1970 Larry Bowa-SS
196 47.1 1971 Jeff Burroughs-RF/LF
164 59.5 1972 Burt Hooton-P
177 48.7 1970 Oscar Gamble-RF/DH
159 53.3 1975 Sixto Lezcano-RF
169 49.8 1973 Al Bumbry-CF
125 45.2 1970 Larry Gura-P
141 35.2 1966 Jay Johnstone-RF/CF
107 48.0 1971 Tim Foli-SS
111 38.8 1974 Geoff Zahn-P
121 33.3 1971 Steve Braun-LF/3B
1992 (December 25)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

547 160.2 1963 Pete Rose-LF/1B
388 147.7 1967 Tom Seaver-P
329 119.1 1970 Bobby Grich-2B
349 108.6 1965 Tony Perez-1B/3B
296 88.4 1970 Cesar Cedeno-CF
287 89.7 1971 Toby Harrah-3B/SS
269 88.0 1971 George Foster-LF
245 77.1 1971 Dusty Baker-LF
202 79.9 1970 Vida Blue-P
221 62.6 1971 Chris Chambliss-1B*
185 63.4 1969 Bill Russell-SS
194 59.9 1972 Ben Oglivie-LF
195 50.4 1971 Dave Kingman-1B/LF
165 50.1 1976 Jason Thompson-1B
159 45.4 1974 Bruce Bochte-1B
152 43.7 1973 Gorman Thomas-CF
133 51.2 1975 Dennis Leonard-P
139 44.6 1977 Steve Kemp-LF*
126 45.8 1971 Jim Slaton-P
123 48.7 1975 John Denny-P
138 36.3 1974 Al Cowens-RF (2002)
134 36.6 1974 Cliff Johnson-DH/1B
119 38.6 1976 Omar Moreno-CF
129 33.1 1974 Enos Cabell-B/1B
107 41.4 1971 Terry Forster-RP
106 38.5 1973 Steve Yeager-C
1993 (January 8)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

444 123.2 1967 Reggie Jackson-RF
374 135.7 1965 Phil Niekro-P
366 133.4 1966 Steve Carlton-P*
280 97.0 1973 Ron Cey-3B
279 84.0 1970 Steve Garvey-1B
257 68.7 1973 Garry Matthews-LF
240 74.8 1973 Davey Lopes-2B
242 68.5 1974 Bill Madlock-3B
222 76.2 1973 Darrell Porter-C (2002)
241 65.6 1973 Cecil Cooper-1B
230 61.8 1970 Hal McRae-DH
205 64.1 1975 Doug DeCinces-3B
181 61.3 1975 Roy Smalley-SS
179 57.4 1973 Dan Driessen-1B
186 50.0 1974 Andre Thornton-1B/DH
152 65.1 1974 Rick Burleson-SS
160 45.3 1972 Jorge Orta-2B/DH
157 41.3 1973 Johnny Grubb-LF/CF
139 48.8 1977 Ruppert Jones-CF
138 47.1 1972 Lee Lacy-RF/LF
114 48.8 1975 Gary Lavelle-RP
121 42.6 1977 Scott McGregor-P*
117 42.5 1980 Tony Bernazard-2B*
107 44.0 1973 Bill Campbell-RP
1994 (January 22)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

319 117.9 1966 Don Sutton-P
321 105.2 1969 Graig Nettles-3B
315 97.2 1970 Ted Simmons-C
313 94.9 1971 Jose Cruz-LF
269 105.8 1970 Dave Concepcion-SS
262 71.7 1972 Don Baylor-DH/LF
237 71.3 1971 George Hendrick-RF/CF
174 75.2 1976 Ron Guidry-P
195 62.7 1975 Phil Garner-2B/3B
189 65.2 1967 Joe Niekro-P
168 58.1 1976 Bruce Sutter-RP
160 58.1 1973 Gene Garber-RP
160 50.9 1976 Jerry Mumphrey-CF
176 43.9 1975 Larry Parrish-3B
136 48.0 1976 Butch Wynegar-C
140 43.6 1978 Bob Horner-3B
130 38.8 1976 Larry Herndon-LF
123 36.5 1977 Ray Knight-3B
109 37.7 1977 Mario Soto-P
1995 (February 5)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

467 157.4 1973 Mike Schmidt-3B
363 116.1 1971 Darrell Evans-3B/1B
301 109.8 1972 Buddy Bell-3B
289 108.5 1964 Tommy John-P
282 84.3 1975 Jim Rice-LF
206 90.9 1971 Chris Speier-SS
200 69.0 1974 Jim Sundberg-C
194 68.3 1970 Jerry Reuss-P*
192 68.3 1971 Doyle Alexander-P
173 54.9 1979 Dwayne Murphy-CF
159 62.8 1975 Kent Tekulve-RP
155 58.1 1975 Rick Rhoden-P
149 59.3 1977 Bob Stanley-RP
140 55.5 1978 Glenn Hubbard-2B
154 44.8 1974 Bob Forsch-P
146 46.0 1975 Manny Trillo-2B
134 38.2 1977 Lee Mazzilli-CF/PH
109 46.7 1977 Willie Hernandez-RP
131 37.6 1977 Tony Armas-RF/CF
126 38.8 1980 Leon Durham-1B
115 42.1 1977 Craig Reynolds-SS
102 43.4 1978 Shane Rawley-P
109 39.4 1977 Mike Krukow-P
118 36.0 1975 Alan Ashby-C
   652. Ardo Posted: July 07, 2006 at 01:47 AM (#2090375)
I've looked at the "marginal" candidates for 1981. None of them impress me. Vada Pinson, in the context of his times, was no better than Fielder Jones (though his peak is better than Jones's). Jim Perry (3300 IP, 106 ERA+) and Claude Osteen (3460, 104) don't measure up to the standards of guys like Grimes and Pierce in the pitching backlog. As for Lindy McDaniel, I am of the "relieving-is-easier-than-starting" school, so I pass.

1982 is a different story. Hank and Frank are a coin-flip apart (Aaron has a slight career edge, Robinson a slight peak edge). The career guys will love Billy Williams, but the peaksters might have him off-ballot - I see him as a close comp to Minoso. Willie Davis has a Max Carey-lite argument; he's clearly a stronger candidate than Pinson. Bill Freehan has similar hitting numbers to Wally Schang and a much better defensive reputation. Finally, Tony Oliva just had too few PAs for me.
   653. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 07, 2006 at 10:59 AM (#2090793)
Ardo I see Pinson kind of like Sam Rice. Not as good, but pretty similar in value and career path.

Pretty wild that Williams, Freehan and Oliva go into the backlog in 1982 and then in 1983 only 2 of Torre, Williams, Brooksie, Allen, Freehan, Powell, Wynn and Oliva get elected. That 1983 rookie class is insanely deep. The backlog will be 6 deeper after that.

2 will go in 1984 and 2, maybe 3 more (depending on our reaction to Brock) will get in for 1985.
   654. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 07, 2006 at 11:03 AM (#2090794)
BTW, Torre and Williams are slam dunks in 1983 for me.
   655. Ardo Posted: July 07, 2006 at 01:14 PM (#2090843)
Joe, I have a request for you: during this upcoming week, could you please add Jim Perry and Paul Derringer to your Pitchers' Pennants Added table?

Also, I don't know where to post this, but I've joined a vintage base ball team in the Detroit area! I'd love to tell all you fellow Primates about it.
   656. SWW Posted: July 07, 2006 at 03:00 PM (#2090942)
Am I wrong in thinking that Steve Carlton shouldn't be eligible until 1994?
   657. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 07, 2006 at 06:52 PM (#2091126)
Am I wrong in thinking that Steve Carlton shouldn't be eligible until 1994?

Constitutionally it's allowed, SWW, but it is arbitrary.
   658. OCF Posted: July 07, 2006 at 06:59 PM (#2091138)
I'm tired of this being too wide for my browser window. Turn the page.
   659. OCF Posted: July 07, 2006 at 07:04 PM (#2091143)
196 47.1 1971 Jeff Burroughs-RF/LF

Now we're talking about my adopted home town. Born and raised in Long Beach. Returned to Long Beach after he retired from baseball. Helped coach a famous Little League team in Long Beach. Did some youth baseball instruction in Long Beach. Briefly managed an indy minors team in Long Beach. At this point, the odds seem to be against his son matching the line above.
   660. DanG Posted: July 07, 2006 at 09:14 PM (#2091294)
SWW: Am I wrong in thinking that Steve Carlton shouldn't be eligible until 1994?

John: Constitutionally it's allowed, SWW, but it is arbitrary.

No, it's per the rules we agreed upon. If a player ends his career playing in less than 10 games or pitching in less than 5 games in a season, that year is considered token appearances and does not delay his eligibility. (That's probably worded better somewhere else.)

Carlton pitched in 4 games in 1988. So that year doesn't count; his eligibility clock begins after the 1987 season. He is eligible in 1993 per our stated eligibility rules.
   661. rawagman Posted: July 07, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2091341)
shouldn't a rule like that be less cut and dried?
Shouldn't the actual circumstances be taken into consideration?
If the final year(s) is consecutive with the rest of his career, shouldn't it count even if it was only a few games?

I can definately understand not counting seasons after a full season of inactivity - an aborted comeback, or some such thing.
   662. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 07, 2006 at 11:28 PM (#2091421)
Will do on Perry and Derringer Ardo . . . should be able to get to that tonight.
   663. OCF Posted: July 08, 2006 at 12:00 AM (#2091471)
Our rule is clear, and we have been consistent. 4 games (and just 9.2 innings) does not reset the clock. We will consider (and probably elect) Carlton a year before the HoF.

Most professional athletes do not retire voluntarily. Oh, they may get a chance to make an announcement that they've retired (if anyone is listening), but they didn't really have a choice. Great ones, with long careers, are granted the unique blessing of being able to retire on their own terms. Many of them do take that option, and hope to somehow make their exit memorable in some way (see Zidane, Z.) The assembled punditry has grown used to this idea of voluntary retirement (never mind that the vast majority can't do that), and hence has some trouble with knowing how to react to a player who refuses to leave and has to be dragged away, kicking and screaming - like Rickey Henderson, and like Steve Carlton. Carlton's career ended when he was released by his last team (released becuase he was completely ineffective) and no other team called with an offer.

After the 1983 season, Carlton held the career record for strikeouts. At the conclusion of the 1984 season, that record belonged to Nolan Ryan, but Ryan's lead over Carlton was just 5. One would have to dig into it further to get the exact progression of the record, but I seem to recall it changing hands between Ryan and Carlton more than once. Carlton is older than Ryan, but the difference is just two years, and they were both old players when they were trading this record. I don't know how much the strikeout record motivated Carlton to stay in; by the end of the 1987 season he had fallen more than 400 behind Ryan.
   664. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 08, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2091487)
Ardo - just did Derringer, better than I thought.

He ends up at .655 PA, a 4.19 aDRA in 3677.3 tIP. He gets a nice relief bonus, 1.55 LI over 269.3 IP. He wasn't a good hitter, even for a pitcher, -18.5 BRAR.

Overall he slots in just ahead of Gomez and Friend, just behind Warneke and Dean.
   665. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 08, 2006 at 12:50 AM (#2091557)
Jim Perry is done - not as good as I would have expected.

His 1959 gets a nice bump, as he had 51.7 rIP at a 1.74 estimated LI. That turns into a 4.7 aWAR season 3rd best of his career. But over the rest of his career he wasn't really a high leverage reliever, his career LI is 1.05 in 329.3 rIP.

Funny, his 1969 was MUCH better than his Cy Young season in 1970. A 3.33 aDRA in 252 tIP, as opposed to 4.03 in 261 tIP.

His bullpens helped him a lot, saved him 16.3 runs over his career, and he gave up 6 more inherited runners than he should have. That's another ding. More than offsets his +12.2 Batting Runs Above Replacement.

He had good defensive support too, which pushes his career aDRA up from 4.24 to 4.30.

Overall it adds up to .555 PA. That puts him even with Jesse Tannehill, behind Milt Pappas and ahead of Addie Joss, Smokey Joe Wood and Jesse Haines.
   666. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 08, 2006 at 01:27 AM (#2091636)
Gibson is done - wow. He's what I thought Marichal would be.

1.136 PA - best pitcher we've seen in awhile. For comparison, he's as far ahead of Drysdale as Drysdale is ahead of Dutch Leonard, Dolph Luque, Don Newcombe (with about 5 years of extra credit) and Dizzy Trout.

He's as far ahead of Bunning as Bunning is ahead of Bob Friend, Curt Simmons and Larry Jackson.

He was a better hitter than Drysdale too (48 BRAR).

His 1968 stands up, second only to Dizzy Trout's 1944 among the non-Walter Johnson pitchers that I've done.

His defense helped him some (+.07 on his aDRA), his bullpen only saved him 2.9 runs over his career. He only threw 88 rIP, but they were at a 1.44 LI (69 rIP at 1.71 if you take out 1960).

His best 5 seasons (42.3 aWAR) are the best I've seen (other than WJ) and is as far ahead of Marichal as Marichal is ahead of Pierce there.

Same for his 3-year run of 1968-70. His top 3 consecutive (27.8) is better than Dizzy Dean's (26.6).

**********

I'm going to hit the books tonight, and try to get as many of the HoMers done as a I can.

I'll probably have Gibson ahead of Killebrew in 1981.
   667. favre Posted: July 08, 2006 at 01:46 AM (#2091685)
Rolling over the eligibles (as always, many thanks to DanG for his great work)

1981 (July 10)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
317 117.9 1959 Bob Gibson-P
371 99.2 1955 Harmon Killebrew-1B/3B
321 79.5 1958 Vada Pinson-CF (1995)
205 78.9 1959 Jim Perry-P
201 76.5 1960 Claude Osteen-P
199 69.4 1960 Leo Cardenas-SS
186 69.4 1956 Lindy McDaniel-RP
166 59.4 1962 Sam McDowell-P
168 56.0 1963 Dave McNally-P (2002)
144 53.4 1964 Sonny Siebert-P
159 42.2 1964 Johnny Briggs-LF
161 40.1 1965 Jim Northrup-RF
133 46.1 1966 Bill Hands-P
118 35.0 1962 Ed Brinkman-SS
110 36.2 1965 Ken Berry-CF
111 25.7 1964 Danny Cater-1B

1982 (July 24)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
643 199.8 1954 Hank Aaron-RF
519 153.3 1956 Frank Robinson-RF/LF
374 115.8 1961 Billy Williams-LF
322 94.6 1961 Willie Davis-CF
267 78.8 1963 Bill Freehan-C
245 63.9 1964 Tony Oliva-RF
205 66.2 1965 Rico Petrocelli-SS/3B
198 56.8 1958 Tony Taylor-2B
207 52.0 1960 Tommy Davis-LF
173 56.0 1964 Mike Cuellar-P
204 47.5 1963 Tommy Harper-LF/RF
178 40.0 1966 Cesar Tovar-CF/LF (1994)
141 39.9 1966 Cleon Jones-LF
121 45.0 1966 Fritz Peterson-P
130 41.1 1960 Ray Sadecki-P
146 35.5 1961 Deron Johnson-1B (1992)
108 39.0 1961 Jim Brewer-RP (1987)
122 28.6 1964 Alex Johnson-LF
114 30.9 1968 Nate Colbert-1B

1983 (August 7)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 111.1 1957 Brooks Robinson-3B
315 102.5 1961 Joe Torre-C/1B
342 90.0 1964 Dick Allen-1B/3B
305 88.6 1963 Jim Wynn-CF
282 69.4 1962 Boog Powell-1B
166 50.1 1967 Doug Rader-3B
175 46.1 1963 Ken McMullen-3B
133 49.2 1965 Larry Dierker-P
152 41.4 1966 Felix Millan-2B
123 47.8 1965 Clay Carroll-RP
144 38.3 1962 Cookie Rojas-2B
118 45.9 1962 Dave Giusti-RP
125 42.0 1963 Al Downing-P
112 41.2 1967 Pat Dobson-P
123 33.5 1965 Willie Crawford-RF (2004)
114 37.5 1966 Tommy Helms-2B
113 37.6 1967 Gary Nolan-P
112 37.7 1967 Bill Singer-P
103 39.1 1962 Diego Segui-RP
122 31.2 1968 Bill Melton-3B
120 31.7 1969 Carlos May-LF
115 28.2 1966 Bobby Tolan-CF/RF

1984 (August 21)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
269 75.3 1959 Ron Fairly-1B/RF
261 68.5 1962 Jim Fregosi-SS
190 78.0 1963 Wilbur Wood-P
189 55.4 1963 Bob Bailey-3B
171 56.3 1966 Davey Johnson-2B
127 44.6 1964 Jerry Grote-C
132 38.1 1966 Tito Fuentes-2B
122 40.8 1965 Jim Lonborg-P
116 41.4 1965 Nelson Briles-P (2005)
122 32.6 1965 Mickey Stanley-CF
110 31.6 1969 Wayne Garrett-3B
102 32.8 1970 Don Gullett-P
104 24.8 1965 Sandy Alomar-2B

1985 (September 4)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
348 82.4 1962 Lou Brock-LF
263 79.8 1966 Roy White-LF
224 80.3 1963 Mickey Lolich-P
206 77.1 1970 Thurman Munson-C (1979)
206 74.4 1965 Catfish Hunter-P (1999)
216 63.6 1966 George Scott-1B
204 60.3 1961 Tim McCarver-C
209 58.1 1964 Rico Carty-LF/DH
169 57.4 1968 Andy Mesersmith-P
157 56.3 1966 Ken Holtzman-P
159 42.1 1965 Don Kessinger-SS
129 47.5 1967 Joe Coleman-P
130 40.5 1969 Ted Sizemore-2B
121 35.7 1962 Manny Mota-LF/PH
115 37.8 1968 Dock Ellis-P
132 30.3 1963 Ed Kranepool-1B
100 39.3 1966 Darold Knowles-RP
100 37.0 1969 Jim Rooker-P
109 29.8 1969 Merv Rettenmund-RF/LF
111 28.7 1963 Vic Davalillo-CF

1986 (October 2)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
408 101.2 1959 Willie McCovey-1B
233 53.2 1964 Willie Horton-LF
212 57.0 1965 Jose Cardenal-CF/RF
183 58.7 1965 Paul Blair-CF
165 55.3 1970 Dave Cash-2B
157 53.3 1969 Manny Sanguillen-C
146 55.9 1967 John Hiller-RP
141 42.7 1966 Bud Harrelson-SS
142 40.6 1965 Ken Henderson-CF/LF
147 31.7 1970 Ralph Garr-LF
114 46.5 1968 Marty Pattin-P
117 32.9 1970 Bernie Carbo-RF/LF
106 35.6 1973 JR Richard-P

1987 (October 16)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
302 88.1 1968 Bobby Bonds-RF (2003)
283 78.3 1967 Sal Bando-3B
178 68.1 1964 Rick Wise-P*
146 61.7 1967 Mike Marshall-RP
150 48.1 1968 Fred Patek-SS
146 47.3 1969 Larry Hisle-CF/LF*
143 44.3 1972 Bill North-CF
135 35.4 1969 Pat Kelly-RF (2005)
121 46.5 1969 Dick Drago-P
116 44.6 1969 Dave Roberts-P
118 42.2 1971 Rennie Stennett-2B

1988 (October 30)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
370 101.3 1963 Willie Stargell-LF/1B (2001)
325 86.4 1967 Reggie Smith-CF/RF
256 97.1 1964 Luis Tiant-P
277 71.9 1969 Bobby Murcer-RF/CF*
225 56.6 1967 Lee May-1B
161 58.9 1967 Sparky Lyle-RP
199 44.2 1970 John Mayberry-1B
162 55.2 1967 Mark Belanger-SS (1998)
173 43.0 1968 Joe Rudi-LF
130 48.8 1968 Stan Bahnsen-P
138 42.5 1968 Del Unser-CF
125 46.8 1969 Bill Lee-P
139 39.7 1974 Ron LeFlore-CF
141 34.3 1971 Willie Montanez-1B
110 41.6 1973 Doc Medich-P
120 31.2 1969 Jim Spencer-1B (2002)

1989 (November 13)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
488 140.1 1961 Carl Yastrzemski-LF/1B
369 136.3 1963 Gaylord Perry-P
356 128.0 1968 Johnny Bench-C
323 121.4 1966 Fergie Jenkins-P
268 102.3 1960 Jim Kaat-P
280 91.4 1964 Bert Campaneris-SS
231 73.9 1970 Gene Tenace-C/1B
197 62.7 1969 Don Money-3B
178 52.9 1973 Richie Zisk-RF/DH
156 57.9 1972 Jon Matlack-P
141 52.4 1965 Rudy May-P
137 52.2 1971 Ken Forsch-P*
134 49.5 1966 Woodie Fryman-P
131 50.5 1969 Steve Renko-P
123 50.1 1972 Jim Barr-P
130 43.0 1971 Joe Ferguson-C
132 39.0 1974 Bake McBride-RF/CF
115 43.2 1972 Dave Goltz-P
124 37.3 1967 Aurelio Rodriguez-3B (2000)

1990 (November 27)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
512 156.8 1965 Joe Morgan-2B
312 107.4 1965 Jim Palmer-P
302 86.5 1970 Ken Singleton-RF
286 82.6 1969 Amos Otis-CF
258 64.1 1967 Rick Monday-CF
247 59.3 1971 Greg Luzinski-LF
236 60.8 1968 Bob Watson-1B
181 61.0 1968 Ron Reed-RP
185 54.6 1971 Mickey Rivers-CF
159 56.1 1969 Mike Torrez-P
158 56.1 1965 Tug McGraw-RP (2004)
140 52.4 1971 Paul Splittorff-P
164 43.1 1969 Lou Piniella-LF
122 46.6 1972 Mike Caldwell-P
110 44.8 1968 Tom Burgmeier-RP
112 41.1 1971 Milt May-C
113 39.1 1972 Dick Tidrow-RP
116 37.2 1973 Bucky Dent-SS
122 34.5 1977 Gene Richards-LF

1991 (December 11)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
384 124.5 1967 Rod Carew-2B/1B
358 102.3 1963 Rusty Staub-RF
305 81.5 1969 Al Oliver-CF/1B
240 87.9 1968 Jerry Koosman-P
188 81.1 1969 Rollie Fingers-RP
212 68.9 1974 Mike Hargrove-1B
219 60.4 1969 Richie Hebner-3B
203 63.0 1972 Garry Maddox-CF*
182 66.1 1973 Steve Rogers-P
179 63.8 1970 Larry Bowa-SS
196 47.1 1971 Jeff Burroughs-RF/LF
164 59.5 1972 Burt Hooton-P
177 48.7 1970 Oscar Gamble-RF/DH
159 53.3 1975 Sixto Lezcano-RF
169 49.8 1973 Al Bumbry-CF
125 45.2 1970 Larry Gura-P
141 35.2 1966 Jay Johnstone-RF/CF
107 48.0 1971 Tim Foli-SS
111 38.8 1974 Geoff Zahn-P
121 33.3 1971 Steve Braun-LF/3B

1992 (December 25)—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
547 160.2 1963 Pete Rose-LF/1B
388 147.7 1967 Tom Seaver-P
329 119.1 1970 Bobby Grich-2B
349 108.6 1965 Tony Perez-1B/3B
296 88.4 1970 Cesar Cedeno-CF
287 89.7 1971 Toby Harrah-3B/SS
269 88.0 1971 George Foster-LF
245 77.1 1971 Dusty Baker-LF
202 79.9 1970 Vida Blue-P
221 62.6 1971 Chris Chambliss-1B*
185 63.4 1969 Bill Russell-SS
194 59.9 1972 Ben Oglivie-LF
195 50.4 1971 Dave Kingman-1B/LF
165 50.1 1976 Jason Thompson-1B
159 45.4 1974 Bruce Bochte-1B
152 43.7 1973 Gorman Thomas-CF
133 51.2 1975 Dennis Leonard-P
139 44.6 1977 Steve Kemp-LF*
126 45.8 1971 Jim Slaton-P
123 48.7 1975 John Denny-P
138 36.3 1974 Al Cowens-RF (2002)
134 36.6 1974 Cliff Johnson-DH/1B
119 38.6 1976 Omar Moreno-CF
129 33.1 1974 Enos Cabell-B/1B
107 41.4 1971 Terry Forster-RP
106 38.5 1973 Steve Yeager-C

1993 (January 8)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
444 123.2 1967 Reggie Jackson-RF
374 135.7 1965 Phil Niekro-P
366 133.4 1966 Steve Carlton-P*
280 97.0 1973 Ron Cey-3B
279 84.0 1970 Steve Garvey-1B
257 68.7 1973 Garry Matthews-LF
240 74.8 1973 Davey Lopes-2B
242 68.5 1974 Bill Madlock-3B
222 76.2 1973 Darrell Porter-C (2002)
241 65.6 1973 Cecil Cooper-1B
230 61.8 1970 Hal McRae-DH
205 64.1 1975 Doug DeCinces-3B
181 61.3 1975 Roy Smalley-SS
179 57.4 1973 Dan Driessen-1B
186 50.0 1974 Andre Thornton-1B/DH
152 65.1 1974 Rick Burleson-SS
160 45.3 1972 Jorge Orta-2B/DH
157 41.3 1973 Johnny Grubb-LF/CF
139 48.8 1977 Ruppert Jones-CF
138 47.1 1972 Lee Lacy-RF/LF
114 48.8 1975 Gary Lavelle-RP
121 42.6 1977 Scott McGregor-P*
117 42.5 1980 Tony Bernazard-2B*
107 44.0 1973 Bill Campbell-RP

1994 (January 22)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
319 117.9 1966 Don Sutton-P
321 105.2 1969 Graig Nettles-3B
315 97.2 1970 Ted Simmons-C
313 94.9 1971 Jose Cruz-LF
269 105.8 1970 Dave Concepcion-SS
262 71.7 1972 Don Baylor-DH/LF
237 71.3 1971 George Hendrick-RF/CF
174 75.2 1976 Ron Guidry-P
195 62.7 1975 Phil Garner-2B/3B
189 65.2 1967 Joe Niekro-P
168 58.1 1976 Bruce Sutter-RP
160 58.1 1973 Gene Garber-RP
160 50.9 1976 Jerry Mumphrey-CF
176 43.9 1975 Larry Parrish-3B
136 48.0 1976 Butch Wynegar-C
140 43.6 1978 Bob Horner-3B
130 38.8 1976 Larry Herndon-LF
123 36.5 1977 Ray Knight-3B
109 37.7 1977 Mario Soto-P

1995 (February 5)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
467 157.4 1973 Mike Schmidt-3B
363 116.1 1971 Darrell Evans-3B/1B
301 109.8 1972 Buddy Bell-3B
289 108.5 1964 Tommy John-P
282 84.3 1975 Jim Rice-LF
206 90.9 1971 Chris Speier-SS
200 69.0 1974 Jim Sundberg-C
194 68.3 1970 Jerry Reuss-P*
192 68.3 1971 Doyle Alexander-P
173 54.9 1979 Dwayne Murphy-CF
159 62.8 1975 Kent Tekulve-RP
155 58.1 1975 Rick Rhoden-P
149 59.3 1977 Bob Stanley-RP
140 55.5 1978 Glenn Hubbard-2B
154 44.8 1974 Bob Forsch-P
146 46.0 1975 Manny Trillo-2B
134 38.2 1977 Lee Mazzilli-CF/PH
109 46.7 1977 Willie Hernandez-RP
131 37.6 1977 Tony Armas-RF/CF
126 38.8 1980 Leon Durham-1B
115 42.1 1977 Craig Reynolds-SS
102 43.4 1978 Shane Rawley-P
109 39.4 1977 Mike Krukow-P
   668. DavidFoss Posted: July 08, 2006 at 03:07 AM (#2091817)
One would have to dig into it further to get the exact progression of the record, but I seem to recall it changing hands between Ryan and Carlton more than once.

According to Wikipedia:

Ryan would be the first to surpass Johnson on April 22, 1983 against the Montreal Expos. However a stint on the disabled list shortly after setting the record combined with a spectacular season by Carlton allowed him to make up ground rather quickly and on June 7, 1982, Carlton passed Ryan as the all time strikeout king with 3,526 to Ryan's 3,524. There would be a total of 14 lead changes and one tie that season, often after each of their respective starts before the season ended with Carlton leading 3,709-3,677. Gaylord Perry, aging and in his final season was never a factor, although he did eventually pass Johnson to finish his career with 3,534 strikeouts. There would be five more lead changes and a tie in 1984 before Carlton ran out of gas. His last ever lead in the all-time strikeout race was after his start on September 4, 1984 when he struck out four Cubs to lead Ryan by three (3,857-3,854). Although the season ended with a mere two strikeout lead for Nolan (3,874-3,872), Carlton had a terrible season in 1985 and an even worse season in 1986
   669. sunnyday2 Posted: July 08, 2006 at 04:23 AM (#2091901)
Prelims (approx. depending on who gets elected)
Newbies who make the top 100

1981--Gibson 1, Killebrew 3 (both PHoM), Pinson 57
1982--Aaron 1, F. Robinson 2 (both PHoM), B. Williams 5, Freehan 7, W. Davis 101
1983--Allen 2, B. Robinson 5 (both PHoM ahead of B. Williams), Torre 7 (ahead of Freehan), Wynn 21
1984--Fregosi 61 (B. Williams and Torre go PHoM)
1985--Brock 50, Munson 80, Hunter 93 (Freehan, F. Howard, Cepeda go PHoM)
1986--McCovey 2 (McCovey and H. Smith go PHoM)
1987--Bobby Bonds 29, Bando 36 (Hack and Rizzuto go PHoM)
1988--Stargell 3, R. Smith 5 (both PHoM), Tiant 52
1989--Bench 1, Yaz 2, G. Perry 4 (all PHoM), Jenkins 6, Campy 61, Kaat 98
1990--Morgan 1, Palmer 3 (both PHoM), Otis 102 (Fergie also PHoM)

That's as far as I 've gone slotting newbies into my consideration set. But here are my anticipated PHoMers:

1991--Carew, Drysdale, Bunning
1992--Seaver, Grich (one-year boycott Pete Rose)
1993--Rose, Reggie, Carlton
1994--P. Niekro, N. Cash, J. Wynn
1995--Schmidt, Doerr, and one from among Sewell, Oms, Duffy, Keller, Ashburn, ?

Or I didn't see Gossage in there, and presumably he is eligible before 1995 and would take the place of Sewell, Oms, Duffy, Kellere, Ashburn, ?

No backloggers 'til 1985, then 12 (total) in the decade from '85 to '95. For me that's about half old backlog, half new backlog. IOW about 6 players out of the 1979 backlog if the consensus holds up and my sense of backlog vs. newbies is predictive for the group.
   670. DavidFoss Posted: July 08, 2006 at 04:44 AM (#2091913)
Or I didn't see Gossage in there, and presumably he is eligible before 1995 and would take the place of Sewell, Oms, Duffy, Kellere, Ashburn, ?

Nope... Goose was pitching ~40 IP/year right up through 1994. That wouldn't make him eligible until 2000, I think.
   671. sunnyday2 Posted: July 08, 2006 at 04:57 AM (#2091917)
Now that I look closer, I see 5 from the old (current) backlog. If we indeed elect 5 backloggers it is likely to be from among the following 7 (with their 1979 voting). There's a big drop off to #10 but surely Duffy and Redding and Beckley are all close enough that any one of them could be the one to drop out. Or Sewell or Kiner for that matter. Mendez and Minoso are looking pretty golden.

3 5 José Méndez 407 26 6 1 6 1 3 2 2 1 2 2
4 6 Minnie Minoso 390 33 1 1 3 4 3 1 3 3 3 3 4 1 3
5 4 Ralph Kiner 331 27 2 2 2 4 3 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 1
6 7 Joe Sewell 326 26 1 5 1 1 2 4 1 5 1 1 4
7 8 Jake Beckley 315 21 5 1 3 2 1 1 1 4 1 2
8 10 Cannonball Dick Redding 307 20 4 4 4 1 1 3 1 2
9 9 Hugh Duffy 304 22 2 2 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 4 1 1
   672. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 08, 2006 at 10:38 AM (#2091953)
I've gotten through Wes Ferrell going alphabetically through the HoMers. No glaring mistakes yet in terms of who we've elected, through the lense of PA (unless you count Bob Caruthers, but I haven't adjusted him for AA yet and I haven't done enough 19th Century guys to get perspective on him yet - as best I can tell he's better than Mullane, worse than Clarkson, but we already knew that).

Mordecai Brown is looking more and more borderline every time I look at him. But I need to get a little more perspective on the deadball guys too.

Billy Pierce is clearly above our established standard:

Johnson 2.276
Alexander 1.782
Feller 1.423 (with 3.75 years conservative WWII credit)
Gibson 1.136
Drysdale .933
Quinn .901 (with 1916-18 PCL credit)
Bunning .888
Pierce .839
Faber .838
Marichal .823
Ferrell .822
Bridges .814 (with about 2 years credit as a Sunday pitcher in 1944-45).
Coveleski .787
Grimes .773
Trucks .758
3FBrown .758
Shocker .751

If you don't want to give Quinn PCL credit, I disagree, but I understand. If you don't want to give Bridges WWII, I disagree, but I understand.

However, Pierce has no question marks. He's clearly above our minimum standards, and I think he should be elected with one of the next backlog openings. I'm going to start pushing his candidacy much harder. His peak is lower than all of the others, but his career more than makes up for it.
   673. OCF Posted: July 08, 2006 at 04:49 PM (#2092048)
However, Pierce has no question marks. He's clearly above our minimum standards, and I think he should be elected with one of the next backlog openings.

Since this is what I've been saying for a while, I'm not the one Joe needs to convince. My 1980 vote:

1. Kaline
2. Santo
3. Pierce
4. Marichal
   674. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: July 08, 2006 at 06:17 PM (#2092101)
Great minds think alike OCF!!

I should note that on the list above Trucks is also given WWII credit for 1944-45.
   675. Howie Menckel Posted: July 08, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2092236)
Right, I saw Pierce just below Bunning and similar to Marichal - and the best holdover P on the board...
   676. SWW Posted: July 10, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#2093883)
Okay, I'm cool on Carlton now. I think because I attended his Cooperstown enshrinement in 1994, it's just hard-wired into my brain to think of that as his first year of eligibility.

Thanks for clarifying.
   677. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 10, 2006 at 02:20 PM (#2094048)
his [Carlton's] Cooperstown enshrinement in 1994...

That would be the famous "Jewish Bankers" enshrinement ceremony IIRC. SWW, what was the crowd's reaction to that line?
   678. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: July 10, 2006 at 03:20 PM (#2094111)
That would be the famous "Jewish Bankers" enshrinement ceremony IIRC. SWW, what was the crowd's reaction to that line?

He didn't mention that there (that was in a magazine before the ceremony), Eric, though he did state that Rush Limbaugh was his favorite guy (or something like that). The latter is certainly no big deal (though belonged as much at the ceremony as Mike Marshall touting his favorite liberal advocate if he were somehow elected to the HOF), but the Jewish comments were incredibly stupid and indefensible. It wont affect my vote, though.

Now if he had mentioned Irish-Italian Catholics...*

* I would still vote for him without thinking about it. :-D
   679. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:07 PM (#2094157)
John, you are correct. Here's a synopsis of what happened from

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_g1epc/is_bio/ai_2419200193

Carlton's election to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1994 (in his first year of eligibility) was marred by an incident weeks later. Ending his silence with the press, Carlton gave a rambling interview in Philadelphia Magazine from his mountainside compound in Colorado, where he claimed that AIDS was concocted by government scientists, that teacher's unions were part of an organized conspiracy to indoctrinate students, and that world affairs were controlled by twelve Jewish bankers in Switzerland. Most Phillies fans ignored his idiosyncratic political commentary, however, and attended his Cooperstown induction that summer.
   680. DavidFoss Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:24 PM (#2094179)
Yeah, Carlton was notoriously reclusive when it came to talking to the media. When he won his 300th, Sports Illustrated even took a jab at him when they put him on the cover after a major career milestone with the heading "Hey Lefty, Tell Us How You Won 300" on the *cover* of the magazine.

When he finally does end his silence, the media discovers that maybe it was better when he wasn't talking to them.
   681. sunnyday2 Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:53 PM (#2094200)
We can be thankful that Lefty generally didn't speak to the media.

But:

"Most Phillies fans...attended his Cooperstown induction"? That musta been a hell of a crowd.
   682. Paul Wendt Posted: July 10, 2006 at 04:56 PM (#2094205)
Although the season ended with a mere two strikeout lead for Nolan (3,874-3,872), Carlton had a terrible season in 1985 and an even worse season in 1986.

He was unlucky in a short 1985 seasons. Granting his legendary physical condition, Mike Schmidt still going strong, and no more than the usual dose of ballplayer optimism, I suspect that Warren Spahn & 363 wins loomed on the horizon. Anyway, I think that Carlton expected to be the last pitcher who would go deep into the 300s if not catch one or two oldtimers.
   683. SWW Posted: July 10, 2006 at 07:56 PM (#2094381)
SWW, what was the crowd's reaction to that line?


As has been established, this was not part of Steve's speech. In fact, his talk was a little on the bland side. Much more memorable was the unceasing flood of Phil Rizzuto fans ("Hey, it's Scootah! Hey, Scootah!"), and my father's observation that Leo Durocher would have slapped his son if he had seen him sobbing during his enshrinement speech.

My favorite part, though, had to be during the speech of Ford Frick recipient Bob Murphy, who used his time to recount an astoundingly comprehensive history of the New York Mets. It went on for a freakin' eternity, and when he finally got to the 1986 title, some irritated fan behind me (probably a Yankee fan, but I'm willing to overlook it) hollered, "Good for the Mets!"

It was an awful lot of New York for one induction ceremony.
   684. Howie Menckel Posted: July 22, 2006 at 01:03 AM (#2107005)
the rest of the 1980s, which will take us well into November. Listing top several per year, and a few of the weaker ones are a stretch, but I'm trying to use a net that catches any contenders at all....

1982—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
643 199.8 1954 Hank Aaron-RF
519 153.3 1956 Frank Robinson-RF/LF
374 115.8 1961 Billy Williams-LF
322 94.6 1961 Willie Davis-CF
267 78.8 1963 Bill Freehan-C
245 63.9 1964 Tony Oliva-RF

1983—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 111.1 1957 Brooks Robinson-3B
315 102.5 1961 Joe Torre-C/1B
342 90.0 1964 Dick Allen-1B/3B
305 88.6 1963 Jim Wynn-CF
282 69.4 1962 Boog Powell-1B

1984—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
269 75.3 1959 Ron Fairly-1B/RF
261 68.5 1962 Jim Fregosi-SS
190 78.0 1963 Wilbur Wood-P

1985—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
348 82.4 1962 Lou Brock-LF
263 79.8 1966 Roy White-LF
224 80.3 1963 Mickey Lolich-P
206 77.1 1970 Thurman Munson-C (1979)
206 74.4 1965 Catfish Hunter-P (1999)

1986—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
408 101.2 1959 Willie McCovey-1B
233 53.2 1964 Willie Horton-LF

1987—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
302 88.1 1968 Bobby Bonds-RF (2003)
283 78.3 1967 Sal Bando-3B
146 61.7 1967 Mike Marshall-RP

1988—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
370 101.3 1963 Willie Stargell-LF/1B (2001)
325 86.4 1967 Reggie Smith-CF/RF
256 97.1 1964 Luis Tiant-P
277 71.9 1969 Bobby Murcer-RF/CF*
225 56.6 1967 Lee May-1B

1989—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
488 140.1 1961 Carl Yastrzemski-LF/1B
369 136.3 1963 Gaylord Perry-P
356 128.0 1968 Johnny Bench-C
323 121.4 1966 Fergie Jenkins-P
268 102.3 1960 Jim Kaat-P
280 91.4 1964 Bert Campaneris-SS
231 73.9 1970 Gene Tenace-C/1B
   685. OCF Posted: July 22, 2006 at 01:09 AM (#2107017)
From post #705, regarding the retirements of great and famous athletes:

Many of them do take that option, and hope to somehow make their exit memorable in some way (see Zidane, Z.)

I wrote that before the France/Italy final. I had no idea what was going to happen, none.
   686. DavidFoss Posted: July 22, 2006 at 02:03 AM (#2107097)
Wow... the flood gates open from 1984-87. McCovey is the only shoo-in for *ten* slots.
   687. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: July 22, 2006 at 02:05 AM (#2107100)
Just for arguing's sake, here's my quick n dirty ranking by year.

1982—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
643 199.8 1954 Hank Aaron-RF
519 153.3 1956 Frank Robinson-RF/LF
267 78.8 1963 Bill Freehan-C
374 115.8 1961 Billy Williams-LF
322 94.6 1961 Willie Davis-CF
245 63.9 1964 Tony Oliva-RF

1983—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
342 90.0 1964 Dick Allen-1B/3B
315 102.5 1961 Joe Torre-C/1B
356 111.1 1957 Brooks Robinson-3B
305 88.6 1963 Jim Wynn-CF
282 69.4 1962 Boog Powell-1B

1984—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
261 68.5 1962 Jim Fregosi-SS
190 78.0 1963 Wilbur Wood-P
269 75.3 1959 Ron Fairly-1B/RF

1985—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
348 82.4 1962 Lou Brock-LF
206 74.4 1965 Catfish Hunter-P (1999)
206 77.1 1970 Thurman Munson-C (1979)
224 80.3 1963 Mickey Lolich-P
263 79.8 1966 Roy White-LF

1986—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
408 101.2 1959 Willie McCovey-1B
233 53.2 1964 Willie Horton-LF

1987—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
283 78.3 1967 Sal Bando-3B
302 88.1 1968 Bobby Bonds-RF (2003)
146 61.7 1967 Mike Marshall-RP ???????????????????

1988—elect 2
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
370 101.3 1963 Willie Stargell-LF/1B (2001)
256 97.1 1964 Luis Tiant-P
277 71.9 1969 Bobby Murcer-RF/CF*
325 86.4 1967 Reggie Smith-CF/RF
225 56.6 1967 Lee May-1B

1989—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)
356 128.0 1968 Johnny Bench-C
369 136.3 1963 Gaylord Perry-P
488 140.1 1961 Carl Yastrzemski-LF/1B
323 121.4 1966 Fergie Jenkins-P
268 102.3 1960 Jim Kaat-P
231 73.9 1970 Gene Tenace-C/1B
280 91.4 1964 Bert Campaneris-SS
   688. DanG Posted: August 14, 2006 at 04:16 PM (#2140150)
New Eligibles 1996-2000

Notes:
1) Maybe 3-4 from the old backlog figure to make it in this period.
2) Japanese league play will come under increasing scrutiny. Could Warren Cromartie build a credible HoM case with his seven years in
JL ball?
3) Again, there is an asterisk by players who are eligible earlier than the BBWAA rules, due to ignoring token appearances at the end of their career.
4) It’s also possible I missed a death date or two; due to its increasing rarity I sometimes forget to check it.

1996 (February 19)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

311 108.1 1975 Keith Hernandez-1B
265 91.3 1976 Chet Lemon-CF
280 83.7 1975 Fred Lynn-CF
240 95.0 1972 Rick Reuschel-P*
211 92.2 1973 Frank White-2B
226 66.2 1971 Bill Buckner-1B
210 69.0 1973 Bob Boone-C
194 52.0 1974 Claudell Washington-RF
157 53.8 1979 Dan Quisenberry-RP (1998)
153 52.5 1982 Johnny Ray-2B
135 50.3 1980 John Tudor-P
124 45.6 1977 Bob Knepper-P
133 41.4 1975 Dave Collins-LF/RF
124 40.0 1984 Phil Bradley-LF
114 42.7 1981 Gary Ward-LF
111 42.1 1977 Greg Minton-RP
112 40.6 1980 Ron Oester-2B
127 35.3 1979 Jeff Leonard-LF
105 41.3 1979 Mike Scott-P*
1997 (March 5)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

347 112.9 1973 Dwight Evans-RF
327 86.9 1973 Dave Parker-RF
259 71.3 1974 Ken Griffey-RF/LF
209 73.1 1976 Garry Templeton-SS
176 54.6 1977 Terry Puhl-RF
170 55.2 1980 Tom Herr-2B
177 51.5 1980 Lloyd Moseby-CF
158 55.1 1974 Rick Dempsey-C*
151 47.4 1981 Mookie Wilson-CF
150 46.5 1979 Terry Kennedy-C
128 49.8 1977 Jim Clancy-P
126 45.6 1980 Ernie Whitt-C
108 43.5 1979 Dan Petry-P
111 38.8 1977 Warren Cromartie-LF/RF
107 38.2 1978 Ed Whitson-P
115 34.5 1979 Ron Hassey-C
1998 (March 19)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

339 143.6 1970 Bert Blyleven-P
337 117.8 1975 Gary Carter-C
312 108.8 1976 Willie Randolph-2B
316 92.1 1977 Jack Clark-RF/1B
298 89.3 1974 Brian Downing-LF/DH/C
210 88.0 1979 Dave Stieb-P*
244 70.8 1978 Carney Lansford-3B
246 68.7 1980 Pedro Guerrero-1B/RF
166 65.7 1982 Jesse Barfield-RF
163 61.6 1978 Jim Gantner-2B
177 56.2 1982 Von Hayes-RF/1B
168 59.5 1980 Mike Scioscia-C
158 59.3 1976 Mike Flanagan-P
141 50.5 1979 Ken Oberkfell-3B
128 54.5 1977 Floyd Bannister-P
153 41.4 1984 Alvin Davis-1B
120 39.0 1984 Brook Jacoby-3B
116 40.7 1978 Don Robinson-P
106 40.3 1980 Dave Smith-RP
103 40.5 1978 Dennis Lamp-RP
1999 (April 2)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

432 133.2 1974 George Brett-3B
423 131.9 1974 Robin Yount-SS/CF
334 141.6 1968 Nolan Ryan-P
368 114.9 1972 Carlton Fisk-C
294 91.8 1977 Dale Murphy-CF/RF
241 110.0 1974 Frank Tanana-P
198 64.0 1982 Steve Sax-2B*
182 69.8 1975 John Candelaria-P
193 60.6 1983 Bill Doran-2B
171 48.4 1981 George Bell-LF
132 59.5 1983 Mike Boddicker-P
138 55.2 1980 Charlie Leibrandt-P
147 50.4 1980 Dickie Thon-SS
141 52.2 1983 Pete O’Brien-1B
134 45.0 1979 Alfredo Griffin-SS
132 42.2 1985 Glenn Davis-1B
117 46.6 1981 Mike Witt-P
118 39.8 1985 Rob Deer-RF*
104 44.9 1981 Bob Ojeda-P*
114 39.3 1984 Dan Gladden-LF
2000 (April 16)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos (Died)

233 95.3 1973 Charlie Hough-P
225 90.2 1978 Jack Morris-P
223 89.9 1972 Rich Gossage-RP
230 80.7 1982 Kent Hrbek-1B
237 75.7 1978 Willie Wilson-CF
187 76.8 1982 Frank Viola-P*
188 75.6 1978 Bob Welch-P
202 59.4 1983 Kevin McReynolds-LF
190 58.6 1980 Lonnie Smith-LF
175 62.4 1982 Tom Brunansky-RF
157 61.1 1980 Jeff Reardon-RP
153 57.4 1979 Rick Sutcliffe-P
144 60.0 1982 Bruce Hurst-P
160 51.0 1981 Dave Henderson-CF
149 40.5 1981 Hubie Brooks-RF/3B
126 45.9 1980 Bill Gullickson-P
123 47.1 1985 Harold Reynolds-2B
120 36.2 1983 Gary Redus-LF
100 44.1 1985 Teddy Higuera-P
   689. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:30 PM (#2140228)
In 1999 somebody has to wait. I'll lay dollars to donuts that in our version of reality, it's not the catcher, but rather the King of Ks whose day is delayed.
   690. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 14, 2006 at 05:34 PM (#2140232)
I'll lay dollars to donuts that in our version of reality, it's not the catcher, but rather the King of Ks whose day is delayed.

With every fiber of my being, I will do everything I can to achieve this!!!

Melodramatic, ain't I? :-)
   691. Juan V Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:13 PM (#2140280)
Besides the classes of 98 and 99, this seems rather weak in slam-dunk candidates, eh?
   692. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2140293)
What kind of total value would you get if you wrapped the beginning and end of Lonnie Smith's career around the middle of Dale Murphy's?
   693. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2140298)
1999:

193 60.6 1983 Bill Doran-2B

I remember once trying to argue that Doran was as good as Ryne Sandberg and that only the park difference made it appear otherwise. Of course, I might not have been right. In any case, I get to change my mind.

147 50.4 1980 Dickie Thon-SS

One of the great "what if" stories.
   694. DL from MN Posted: August 14, 2006 at 06:43 PM (#2140313)
> What kind of total value would you get if you wrapped the beginning and end of Lonnie
> Smith's career around the middle of Dale Murphy's?

I dunno, but you could call him Londale Smurphy.
   695. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 14, 2006 at 07:27 PM (#2140352)
I dunno, but you could call him Londale Smurphy.

I know this is a family-friendly site, but that's a great p*rno name. But sometimes, though, one's given name just trumps all: Dickie Thon.

I've always had a feeling that Billy Doran's career was one that could have gone either way, and it ended up being disappointing in a HOF/HOM kind of way. I think I remember someone on here saying he developed a debilitating back problem or some such which totally sapped his game. But OPS+ and EQA don't support that, and his glove appears to have been average. Well, his 1985 Donruss Diamond King did retrospectively and vaguely remind me of Val Kilmer playing Jim Morrison, and that's something.
   696. DL from MN Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2140474)
Bob Johnson
   697. OCF Posted: August 14, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2140506)
163 61.6 1978 Jim Gantner-2B

Gantner had an 1800 game career, all of it with the same team. He moved around a little but you can clearly identify his predominant position. He was a long-time regular, and you can call him a good player, but he was never a legitimate all-star. That is, if he was ever one of the top two or three in the league at his position, then something must have happened to most of the other likely candidates. How rare is that in major league history (especially the part about the same team)? Are there enough guys like this to make a team?
   698. DanG Posted: August 15, 2006 at 02:52 AM (#2141242)
How rare is that in major league history (especially the part about the same team)? Are there enough guys like this to make a team?

I spent a bit of time on this, pretty interesting question.

1800 games is a lot, but the killer is same team for his whole career.

The first person I thought of was Ed Kranepool, who I think would be the firstbaseman on this team. Others I found who seem to fit in are Carl Furillo in RF, Ossie Bluege at 3B and Bill Russell at SS.

Guys who are probably too good to qualify for this squad are Roy White in LF, Phil Cavarretta at 1B and Kent Hrbek at 1B.
   699. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 15, 2006 at 03:35 PM (#2141511)
Another way to answer this one. Ganter ranks between 95-100 on my all-time rankings at 2B. The nearest players in rank by position with 1800 games and same team:

C Mike Lieberthal??? Only 1100 games, but no catcher is close.
1B Kent Hrbek, 81st at 1B (1747 games...including two strike years; right on DanG)
2B Gantner
3B Ossie Bluege, 100th at 3B (another good catch, DanG!)
SS Crosetti, 85th at SS (1683 games at 154 sked...) or Russell at 115thish.
RF Carl Furillo, 78th at RF (yet another good catch!)
CF ?????????
LF Garret Anderson, 90th through 2005 and 1610 games through then, so getting close.
SP Dennis Leonard, 260thish best pitcher
RP Bob Stanley????
   700. Mike Webber Posted: August 15, 2006 at 04:30 PM (#2141577)
CF ?????????

Clyde Milan - I think. Being an exact contemporary of Cobb and Speaker pretty much means you aren't in the top 1/4 of AL centerfielders.
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