My guess: We elect the two middle infielders and probably the Crime Dog in 2010, and Bags, Raffy (depending on boycotts) and one of Walker/Brown in 2011. Edgar and the loser of the Walker/Brown derby will be mid-high backloggers (elected in 2012? Has anyone tried to figure out a list for that one?), along with Olerud (a long-time favorite of mine, so I might be overrating him) and Ventura. Juan Gone will get some votes here and there, maybe Burks as well.

If a backlogger manages to sneak in (unlikely, since those guys will have plenty of chances before this), it makes things even tighter.

McGriff?? I don't see him as *close*...Of not-yet-eligible position players, here's my ranking:

Bonds
ARod
Rickey
Ripken
Piazza
Larkin
Bagwell
Raines
Griffey
Sheffield
Pudge
Thomas
Gwynn
Chipper
Biggio
McGwire
Manny
Thome
Jeter
Palmeiro
Edmonds
Posada
Pujols
Rolen
Sosa
Walker
Alomar
BGiles
Vlad
Giambi
Edgar
-----current in/out line----
Bernie
Ventura
Abreu
Belle
TFernández
Salmon
Luis González
Kent
Lofton
Olerud
O'Neill
McGriff
Nomah
Kendall
TPhillips
JBell
Helton

elected in 2012? Has anyone tried to figure out a list for that one

Yes, I've looked at it some and 2012 is a three-backlogger year, I think. Nobody retired after 2006, they all came back for 2007. The best newbie I see is Bernie Williams. Others:

Tim Salmon
Ruben Sierra
Sandy Alomar, Jr.*
Bill Mueller
Tim Worrell
Jeff Fassero
Jeff Nelson
Vinny Castilla
Brian Jordan
Eric Young
Scott Erickson
Kent Mercker
JT Snow
Pedro Astacio
Jeromy Burnitz
Jose Hernandez
Joe Randa
Tony Womack
Rick Helling
Javy Lopez
David Bell
Phil Nevin
Matt Lawton
Carl Everett
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Edgardo Alfonzo
Alex Gonzalez
Danny Graves

Depending on how many the HOF elects, we may not want to elect three every year. We may want to elect 2 in odd years (2009, 2011, 2013) and 3 in even years (2010, 2012, 2014). Otherwise our number may far exceed theirs in short order.

Depending on how many the HOF elects, we may not want to elect three every year

My sense is that once we catch up in time, there's no reason to match our numbers to theirs. We started with that number so that we could show who really belonged if 231 players were elected. As we continue, we can show who should be elected once that standard has been established. If we reduce the number of electees without a demographic justification for it (which we don't have at present), we would be in effect changing our standards, falling (to a lesser extent) into the same trap the HoF has fallen into. If our numbers far exceed theirs, it will only highlight the problems of their process (and if our numbers are far exceeding theirs, they will eventually find a VC configuration that increases their rate of inductions).

One name for 2012 that will be interesting: Bernie Williams. Here's a few guys who did not play in 2007 but did play in 2006, so potential 2012ers.

HITTERS
-------
Bernie Williams
Tim Salmon
Edgardo Alfonzo
Javy Lopez
Jeromy Burntiz
Vinny Castilla
Eric Young
Bill Mueller
Joe Randa
Phil Nevin
Ruben Sierra
Carl Everett
J.T. Snow
David Bell
Corey Koskie
Matt Lawton
Jose Hernandez
Alex S. Gonzalez
Tony Batista
Tony Womack
Todd Hollandsworth
Jose Vizcaino
Damian Jackson

PITCHERS
--------
Brad Radke
Keith Foulke
Cory Lidle
Rick Helling
Terry Mulholland
Pedro Astacio
Kent Merker
Arthur Rhodes
Jeff Fassero
Felix Rodriguez
Ricardo Rincon
Tim Worrell
Dustin Hermanson

Oops, missed Dan's post above. Sorry.

Yes, I've looked at it some and 2012 is a three-backlogger year, I think. Nobody retired after 2006, they all came back for 2007.

I wouldn't call it a three-backlogger year. The classes of 2010 and 2011 are so strong that we'll definitely have some holdovers from those ballots. Most likely, we'll have two of Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker still hanging around (presuming we elect Alomar and Larkin and 1 of McGriff/Martinez in '10, and Palmeiro, Bagwell and Brown in '11). Maybe those guys won't go in as easily as I think they will, but we could be looking at only one backlog spot in '12, not three.

Olerud and Ventura also. 2010/2011 are really strong groups.

I was thinking... was Smoltz 2008 a token appearance, or we could still have him enter the ballot along with Maddux and Glavine (if they all retire now, of course)?

I wouldn't call 5 starts a token, no. I think there is very little chance that any of McGriff, Olerud, or Ventura will be elected.

was Smoltz 2008 a token appearance

No. Since 2008 was contiguous with the bulk of his career, our practice has always been "less than 5 games pitched" or "less than 10 games played". If he had not played in 2007, his 6 G/28 IP in 2008 would be considered token, i.e., insufficient play for restarting his eligibility clock.

Mike Hampton is in an in-between status right now. If he does not play significantly in 2009-10, I would argue that his 13 G/78 IP in 2008 is not enough to restart his eligibility clock and that he should be eligible in 2011. However, this is premature speculating, since he seems primed for the Braves rotation in 2009.

The recent retirements are going to create a huge deadlock in the 2013-2014 elections and beyond. Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa all become eligible in 2013. Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina are in 2014. Now we've got Tom Glavine talking about retirement if his injury takes too long to heal, potentially adding him to the '14 list. Pedro Martinez and Frank Thomas have yet to find a teams for this year, two more potentials for '14. We could have twelve slam dunk candidates added to the ballot in a two-year span. And that's not even counting Trevor Hoffman or John Smoltz who have yet to pitch this year due to injuries.

Reposting Dan's post #896

Here are the newbies for the 2011 election, three years from now. Five or six solid candidates here. We should get Japanese League MLEs for Nomo. I could easily have missed some minor candidates. A tip of the cap to Juan V for the win shares info.

2011 (November 8, 2010)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
395 137.4 1987 Rafael Palmeiro-1B
388 135.4 1991 Jeff Bagwell-1B
301 115.2 1990 John Olerud-1B
311 106.6 1990 Larry Walker-RF
241 106.0 1989 Kevin Brown-P
230 78.3 1987 BJ Surhoff-LF/C
250 67.1 1990 Marquis Grissom-CF
216 73.9 1991 Tino Martinez-1B
208 74.2 1993 Bret Boone-2B
182 79.9 1984 John Franco-RP
183 57.9 1994 Raul Mondesi-RF
150 67.7 1988 Al Leiter-P
160 56.0 1990 Carlos Baerga-2B
135 54.0 1994 Mike Hampton-P
153 46.5 1991 Jose Offerman-SS/2B
105 52.5 1991 Wilson Alvarez-P
101 46.4 1996 Ugueth Urbina-RP
100 44.9 1990 Hideo Nomo-P
114 37.5 1986 Terry Mulholland-P*

2012:
fourth place finisher from 2011 (Brown, Palmeiro or Walker)
Bernie Williams (or backlog)
backlog

2013:
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
(Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa top the new backlog)
(David Wells and Steve Finley could also get some support)

2014:
Greg Maddux
Frank Thomas
Tom Glavine
(Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent and Jim Edmonds add to the top-heavy backlog)
(Luis Gonzalez could get some support)

2015 and 2016:
new eligibles to be determined
six major holdovers (Biggio, Edmonds, Kent, Mussina, Schilling, Sosa)

potential retirees
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Ivan Rodriguez

Trevor Hoffman (signed for 2010)
Ken Griffey (signed for 2010)
Omar Vizquel (signed for 2010)

Doing a review of the 2011 eligibles shows that list is essentially correct, listing all significant candidates. A few notes:

-Hampton pitched enough in 2008-09 to restart the eligibility clock. He is not eligible in 2011.
-Nomo should have an asterisk, as he returned and made token appearances in 2008
-I maybe missed a couple minor candidates: Higginson, Cordero, Hidalgo, Grieve, et al; catchers Charles Johnson and Dan Wilson. I haven't checked their numbers to see if they would qualify for listing.
-The win shares numbers supplies by Juan V may have differences from official sources.

I'll try to update it in the next couple days. But if the 2011 Discussion thread goes up with the list as is, it's no big deal. I'm working on 2012-13-14 new eligibles in standard format.

I've mentioned this before, but it looks like John M. will have to start the page for "Selected 21st Century Candidates" with the 2014 election, for Kent, Edmonds, and Mussina. I guess you could argue that Schilling's best years were in the 21st, but he pitched more innings in the 20th.

Crap, I just realized I forgot that the century actually started in 2001. Let me check...Well, Edmonds still qualifies. Same number of seasons, more PAs in the 21st.

I guess you could argue that Schilling's best years were in the 21st, but he pitched more innings in the 20th.

Yeah, he's 20th century, Devin. Maybe Kent and Moose, too.

Good God, that's going to be a hell of a backlog.

I'll try to update it in the next couple days. But if the 2011 Discussion thread goes up with the list as is, it's no big deal.

If you update it, Dan, I'll just amend it later.

Seems like only one more current backlogger will be crowned before 2016 or beyond - and it might well be Cone, not exactly an old-timer.....

Wow. Craig Biggio up there with Eddie Collins and Pop Lloyd in terms of unlucky retirement years . . . see the 1934 election results.

Personally, with no analysis, just eyeballing, I've got Biggio over Thomas in 2014 (and possibly Glavine).

Once we get through those though, I think the back half of the 2010s will open some doors.

BTW, the original schedule had us going to 4 elect me spots every 4th year around this time (roughly 12-15 years after Arizona and Tampa Bay entered the league).

We scrapped that, but I really cannot remember why (minor pressure because the HoF was tightening it's doors?). It's entirely defensible to consider it again if we think it's reasonable.

I personally think we should switch to a HoF-style vote (where you just need to be listed on X% of ballots to get in) now that we have "caught up" to the size of the HoF. The principle is that we have an established standard (best, I dunno, 2%, or 0.5%, or whatever that is), and we shouldn't force ourselves to lower it to meet a 3-a-year quota if we happen to catch a star drought at some point.

I 100% disagree Dan.

The "X" per year, instead some arbitrary % of the vote is one of the founding principles of the Hall of Merit and the key principle that makes it's end result better than the Hall of Fame.

IMO the single biggest mistake the Hall of Fame ever made was setting 75% as the standard. The football hall of fame has a much better election process for two reasons 1) 32 guys in a room, debating the merits of the players 2) a psuedo-fixed system. I believe they have a 75% standard, but with a minimum of 3 and a maximum of 6 (plus one old-timer every year). I could be mistaken there though, but I believe that's essentially how it works. They elect 4-7 per year no matter what. I prefer our fixed number, known in advance (without knowing who the candidates will be), but it's close to the same thing either way.

That's one thing that is not up for debate, IMO. The number that X represents is open. But moving from X to Y is not anything I can ever see me endorsing. Feel free to try though, I've been surprised before.

There are plenty of qualified candidates. I would have no problem electing any of our top 10. I can never see a year where there won't be 3 reasonable candidates. Whether or not we agree on who should be at the top of the backlog, there are always worthy backloggers. IMO, the biggest (of our few) mistakes have been electing the "shiny new toy" over a worthy backlogger.

The worst thing we could do is tie ourselves to only electing the no-brainers. Just like the Hall of Fame, this is not a 'small-hall'.

The principle is that we have an established standard (best, I dunno, 2%, or 0.5%, or whatever that is), and we shouldn't force ourselves to lower it to meet a 3-a-year quota if we happen to catch a star drought at some point.

And we are by no means lowering our standard. As I said if anything, we've raised it. Using the straight numbers that got us this far, we should be electing 4 every 4th year, and we chose not to do that and just stick with 3 (at least for the time being). I am absolutely dead set against getting any tighter.

And we are by no means lowering our standard.

Exactly. As long as we are picking the three best eligible ballplayers from the whole history of baseball in each election (and not screwing up our picks), our standard will be very stable. If we have the election rate set about right, we'll probably add players into the high backlog (that long-term top group that fills spots 5 to 25 in people's rankings with roughly equivalent players) at about the same rate that we pull players off the top of that backlog in years where there are HoM spots that don't go to new arrivals.

Because, as Joe says, there are plenty of qualified candidates, we could easily watch the trends in the quality of the top backlog for a decade before deciding to elect slightly more or fewer candidates, without risking any meaningful lowering of HoM standards.

In terms of percentage, I agree 100% with Joe.

Certainly looking at the new eligibles coming up and looking at the current backlog, there are players waiting who are better than some we've already elected. If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. The backlog got better and better from there, though we have caught up since going to 3 every year. But the next 5 years, there's little risk of any choices that are worse, much less substantially worse, than our low end is today. And I say this as a supporter of players like Lip Pike and Sam Thompson. They were the best available at the time. The inference then would be that we elected too many players then. But it was the same as the HoF. Like Joe said, it's not a small hall.

I think part of the message is that, sure, Cooperstown blew it on a lot of their picks, the Frisch cronies, etc., but also Cooperstown is actively blowing it today by pretending to become more exclusive that it ever really was. They are not doing contemporary baseball any favors by pretending that it's not as good as the good old days.

I agree, if all we do is elect modern players as good or better than our earlier picks, that's ok.

We've tried to make clear that the real Hall blew it on about 60 picks, and we found much better alternatives. It might be worth reviving the "HOM but not HOF" lists to clarify which guys we believe belong and which we only marginally support, like Edgar.

Since we technically had 4 separate "votes" on those players, might not even be bad in 2010 to force us to pick only 15 of that group - this time head-to-head - to cement which guys' exclusion is the most offensive.

If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. ... The inference then would be that we elected too many players then.

All right, a blast from the past: the 1931 election results. 1931 was a full-on backlog election, in an elect-one year. 53 people voted. The average consensus score for 1931 was -3.4, a record low at the time, which would become quite pedestrian in due time. There were votes for 55 different players - again, that total seems quaintly low now. I'll list everyone who was either subsequently elected, or who drew votes on the 2010 ballot.

1. Dickey Pearce. Elected 1931.
2. Rube Foster. Elected 1932.
3. George Van Haltren. 38th on 2010 ballot. The vote totals at the time: Pearce 661, Foster 616, Van Haltren 614.
4. Clark Griffith. Elected 1971.
5. Lip Pike. Elected 1940.
6. Jake Beckley. Elected 1998.
7. Hughie Jennings. Elected 1960.
8. Cupid Childs. Elected 1988.
9. Roger Bresnahan. Elected 2004.
10. Jimmy Ryan. 71st on 2010 ballot. Has at times been off the ballot altogether.
11. Hugh Duffy. 7th on 2010 ballot.
12. Rube Waddell. Elected 1987.
13. Mickey Welch. 26th on 2010 ballot.
14. Pete Browning. Elected 2005.
15. Tommy Leach. 11th on 2010 ballot.
16. Bill Monroe. 28th on 2010 ballot.
(Spots Poles, Harry Hooper.)
19. Larry Doyle. 42nd on 2010 ballot.
20. Charley Jones. Elected 2003.
(Bobby Veach)
22. Frank Chance. 59th on 2010 ballot.
23. Ed Cicotte. 53rd on 2010 ballot.
24. Gavy Gravath. 6th on 2010 ballot.
(George Burns)
26. Ed Williamson. 31st on 2010 ballot.
27. Addie Joss. 46th on 2010 ballot.
28. John McGraw. Elected 2009.
29. Fielder Jones. 89th on 2010 ballot.
30. Vic Willis. 17th on 2010 ballot.
(Ed Konetchy, Lave Cross)
33. Jim McCormick. 86rd on 2010 ballot.
34. Tommy Bond. 84th on 2010 ballot.
(Herman Long, Mike Tiernan, Del Pratt)
38. Tony Mullane. 57th on 2010 ballot.
(Bruce Petway, Mike Griffin, Silver King, Donie Bush, John Donaldson)
44. Fred Dunlap. 36th on 2010 ballot.
(Tom York, Joe Tinker, Jake Daubert, Billy Nash, Roy Thomas, Bobby Mathews, Levi Meyerle, Harry Wright, Jimmy Williams, Jim Whitney, Johnny Evers).

I will say that my biggest and most consensus-lowering disagreements with the rest of the electorate have been over a number of the 1931 also-rans who were eventually elected with no support from me.

George Burns got a recent vote or 2.......

Oops, yes. Too late to edit. Call Burns 81st on the 2010 ballot.

There were votes for 55 different players - again, that total seems quaintly low now.

Which is also a reason why we are electing guys in the 30s in terms of percentage of possible points - we have many more players to choose from (and splinter the vote) than we used to. It doesn't mean the players themselves aren't as good.

924. Joe Dimino Posted: December 01, 2009 at 08:58 PM (#3400763)
I 100% disagree Dan.

The "X" per year, instead some arbitrary % of the vote is one of the founding principles of the Hall of Merit and the key principle that makes it's end result better than the Hall of Fame.

926. Chris Cobb Posted: December 01, 2009 at 09:18 PM (#3400773)
In terms of percentage, I agree 100% with Joe.

I'm good for another 100%.


927. sunnyday2 Posted: December 02, 2009 at 12:09 AM (#3400885)
Certainly looking at the new eligibles coming up and looking at the current backlog, there are players waiting who are better than some we've already elected. If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. The backlog got better and better from there, though we have caught up since going to 3 every year. But the next 5 years, there's little risk of any choices that are worse, much less substantially worse, than our low end is today

Some would say the picks in the late 1990s and 20-aughts look the weakest.

There was never a good chance of electing anyone "worse, much less substantially worse, than our low end today"! We may anticipate two from Cone, McGriff, Bernie Williams and the deep backlog in 2012. No one who is elected will be out of place, but it's also likely that substantial minorities will consider two of them to be among the weakest members.


Regarding any move from three to four per year, how far do we lag behind the original schedule? The gradual introduction of an increase by a pattern such as (from one to two) =1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,1[1931],2= isn't much difference from a single step up in 1919 or so. Thirty months from now the lists of forthcoming eligibility will extend practically thru 2017. Maybe a step up from three to four will seem reasonable then.

If the practical scope of the next election will be newcomers only, as some anticipate, then there will be much to learn this year. It is possible to maintain any engagement by annual elections participants during such a year, or even during its month of November?

Here are the newbies for the 2012 and 2013 elections. AFAIK, this is everyone with 120 Win Shares or 20 WARP3.

2012 (November 28, 2011)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
311 57.3 1991 Bernie Williams-CF
232 44.2 1993 Tim Salmon-RF
194 39.5 1994 Javy Lopez-C
211 31.3 1995 Edgardo Alfonzo-3B/2B
157 45.4 1995 Brad Radke-P
222 14.5 1986 Ruben Sierra-RF
166 23.0 1992 Brian Jordan-RF
170 13.0 1993 J.T. Snow-1B*
166 14.4 1993 Jeromy Burnitz-RF
162 17.1 1992 Eric Young-2B
126 30.5 1991 Jeff Fassero-P
120 30.8 1990 Scott Erickson-P
140 23.2 1996 Bill Mueller-3B
143 20.5 1995 Phil Nevin-3B/1B
153 11.9 1993 Vinny Castilla-3B
148 12.9 1995 Carl Everett-CF/RF
142 13.7 1996 Matt Lawton-RF/LF
121 26.0 1999 Corey Koskie-3B
100 24.0 1992 Pedro Astacio-P
135 12.2 1996 Joe Randa-3B
125 13.9 1991 Jose Vizcaino-SS/2B
2013 (November 26, 2012)—elect 3
WS W3 Rookie Name-Pos
705 186.2 1986 Barry Bonds-LF
437 146.4 1984 Roger Clemens-P
428 73.8 1989 Craig Biggio-2B
325 68.7 1993 Mike Piazza-C
322 61.0 1989 Sammy Sosa-RF
252 75.4 1990 Curt Schilling-P
288 51.7 1992 Kenny Lofton-CF
297 41.3 1989 Steve Finley-CF
280 45.0 1983 Julio Franco-SS/2B
210 55.2 1988 David Wells-P
237 41.8 1995 Shawn Green-RF
209 36.7 1992 Reggie Sanders-RF
230 28.9 1994 Ryan Klesko-LF/1B
185 33.7 1994 Jose Valentin-SS
169 33.1 1995 Jeff Cirillo-3B
144 38.6 1992 Roberto Hernandez-RP
193 23.7 1993 Jeff Conine-1B/LF
159 24.4 1992 Royce Clayton-SS
151 23.7 1994 Rondell White-LF/CF
121 32.4 1992 Bob Wickman-RP
118 31.9 1993 Woody Williams-P
125 27.7 1990 Jose Mesa-RP
122 27.4 1995 Mike Lieberthal-C
120 27.4 1996 Jason Schmidt-P*
109 30.8 1997 Kelvim Escobar-P*
111 21.9 1993 Aaron Sele-P
122 12.5 1997 Todd Walker-2B

And, if anyone cares, Bobby Higginson is also eligible in 2011 (157 WS, 21.5 W3).

I have a good friend who would care. He hates Bobby Higginson for killing the Tigers with his awful contract. Kind of the way many Jays fans hate Vernon Wells right now.

Also, I was surprised to see Lofton so close to Finley. For some reason, I thought that the gap between the two would be much larger (with Finley the one in the lead).

Also also, thanks for putting the lists together, Dan.

Also, I was surprised to see Lofton so close to Finley. For some reason, I thought that the gap between the two would be much larger (with Finley the one in the lead).

Heh. I was surprised to see Finley with a (small) lead in WS.

I was surprised to see Finley with a (small) lead in WS.

Finley played in 480 more games than Lofton in his career and earned 9 more win shares. Both are among the top ten in CF games.

Players with 1970+ games played in CF

What? Did Julio Franco actually stop playing?

I'm curious: Is there an argument for Clemens over Bonds?

as for julio franco... did he play well enough/often enough in japan to get any credit? i don't know his numbers but i know he played there... and maybe elsewhere as well?

Julio Franco's Japan League (and other) stats are available here.

He was okay, but nothing special, in Japan, and tore the cover off the ball in Korea and Mexico (as he should have). There's not really a lot of space there for much in the way of extra credit.

Soon after the last election OCF quoted and replied to Marc Sunnyday
929. OCF Posted: December 02, 2009 at 02:01 AM (#3400912)
>>If anything, our picks in and around 1930 look the weakest. ... The inference then would be that we elected too many players then.<<

> All right, a blast from the past: the 1931 election results. 1931 was a full-on backlog election, in an elect-one year.<

OCF highlighted and annotated those 1931 results usefully. Limiting myself to the bold markup, twelve players on that ballot have been elected: Dickey Pearce and Rube Foster promptly, Lip Pike a few years later during a lull between storms, and nine more after we worked our way through the backlog in the late 1950s. Here is a chronological list of their elections.

1960, Hugh Jennings
1971, Clark Griffith
1987, Rube Waddell
1988, Cupid Childs
1998, Jake Beckley
2003, Charley Jones (eligible in 1898)
2004, Roger Bresnahan
2005, Pete Browning
2009, John McGraw

I recall concerns expressed around 1930 that the few elections (to 1932) might be the last realistic chances for any of the current leading candidates. It seemed possible that "it's now or never". In fact, the continuing viability of so many early candidates, and the election of more than a handful during the later decades of the regular cycle, shows that the election schedule worked well. It enforced honoring early players at a pace that ultimately proved to be comfortable, however stiff it seemed around 1930. In other words, the early schedule was a constraint that proved to be not binding. It may be interpreted as a safeguard against election of too many modern players, which proved to be unnecessary.

The election record disproves that "too many players" were elected at any early or middle stage. How else could Charley Jones and Pete Browning win election during the last decade, competing successfully against almost everyone now in the backlog?

This "proof" takes for granted the group of voters ultimately recruited and retained. It's from their perspective that the schedule was just right, or nearly so. The "safeguard against election of too many modern players" may have been unnecessary only because something else about the process dissuaded the too-modern voters.

There's a hint in the very recent success of early candidates, but only a hint, that any increase to four per year would have been or will be too much.

Here are the newbies for the 2014 election. AFAIK, this is everyone with 119 Win Shares or 19 WAR.

2014 (December 2, 2013)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
398 96.9 Greg Maddux-P
405 75.9 Frank Thomas-DH/1B
314 71.6 Tom Glavine-P
270 74.6 Mike Mussina-P
339 59.4 Jeff Kent-2B
318 46.3 Luis Gonzalez-LF
206 46.3 Kenny Rogers-P
277 38.2 Moises Alou-LF/RF
231 32.7 Ray Durham-2B
179 34.4 Tom Gordon-RP*
186 24.3 Mark Grudzielanek-2B/SS*
108 27.6 Brandon Webb-P*
125 21.2 Steve Trachsel-P
156 19.8 Shannon Stewart-LF
128 17.7 Armando Benitez-RP
113 21.4 Jon Lieber-P
156 15.8 Sean Casey-1B
129 22.0 Jose Cruz-CF/RF
115 20.1 Keith Foulke-RP
124 18.1 Mike Timlin-RP
107 21.1 Esteban Loaiza-P
146 17.6 Damion Easley-2B
135 19.3 Geoff Jenkins-LF
157 14.0 Jose Vidro-2B
154 14.4 Richie Sexson-1B
127 15.4 Paul LoDuca-C
112 19.6 Trot Nixon-RF
119 11.1 Todd Jones-RP
124 09.7 Jacque Jones-RF/LF
119 10.6 Dmitri Young-1B/LF

These guys mostly left MLB after 2008 (except for those marked *), so there is still some potential for comebacks here, especially Webb.

Looks like five HoMers here. Along with the six from the previous year and another four in 2015 it seems we could add a few elect-4 years to clear out this wave; if we don't do that we won't be looking at the backlog for a loonnggg time after the 2012 election.

129 22.0 Jose Cruz-CF/RF

His daddy makes a better candidate. I'm not 100% sure whether the same comment would or wouldn't apply to Moises Alou.

Sometime in the next few weeks I'll try to work up RA+ equivalent records for Maddux, Glavine, Mussina, Rogers, Webb, and Trachsel and post them either here or on a general 2012 discussion thread if there is one. WS and WAR disagree on the relative rank of Glavine and Mussina; that's a good reason for taking a third look.

Maddux, Glavine, Mussina, Rogers, Webb, and Trachsel and post them either here or on a general 2012

Those are all 2014 candidates. For 2012 you want to look at Brad Radke, Scott Erickson, Pedro Astacio and Jeff Fassero.

2013 will be interesting to see how many give Bonds/Clemens/Sosa their 1 year allowable pass. Does this become a Biggio, Piazza, and then Schilling or backlog player year? I probably won't protest them myself.

Holdovers Biggio and Schilling and Sosa vs newcomer Glavine for the third slot? Or maybe Mussina shines in HOM world to join the battle? And Kent will get a lot of support. That will be fun.

Here are the newbies for the 2015 election. AFAIK, this is everyone with 118 Win Shares or 18 WAR.

2015 (December 8, 2014)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
430 63.3 Gary Sheffield-RF
326 89.6 Randy Johnson-P
289 65.3 John Smoltz-P
256 73.5 Pedro Martinez-P
303 44.2 Carlos Delgado-1B
287 42.7 Brian Giles-RF/LF
219 42.6 Nomar Garciaparra-SS
191 27.3 Cliff Floyd-LF
161 27.8 Darin Erstad-1B/CF
189 16.8 Mark Loretta-2B/SS
177 18.5 Rich Aurilia-SS
175 17.6 Jermaine Dye-RF
114 26.1 Jarrod Washburn-P
125 18.0 Troy Percival-RP
138 11.1 Kevin Millar-1B
128 11.8 Tony Clark-1B

These are all 2009 retirees; I found no significant players who get "early" eligibility (who subsequently made token appearances). I might yet come up with a foreign player or two (probably Asian) who merits our review.

I still support the idea of having a couple elect-4 elections before this decade is through. Otherwise the backlog will lie fallow for too long.

> fallow for too long

How long is too long? None of these guys are 90 years old.

Too long to keep the project very interesting. At three electees per year the HoM spends the rest of this decade inducting obvious HoMers.

Exploring the margins of the HoM is interesting. Ushering in obvious choices is oh-so-BBWAA.

Except the BBWAA is actively ignoring the obvious choices.

Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Mark McGwire
Jeff Bagwell
Kevin Brown
Larry Walker
Rafael Palmeiro

We just had election that was nothing but "exploring the margins". A pessimist might call that "lowering the bar" or "scraping the bottom of the barrel". Sometimes players just pile up, it will sort itself out.

I would like to know if Joe has determined whether we inducted the "right" amount.

Thought I'd take a quick WAR look at potential newbies for 2016.

78.6 Ken Griffey
67.9 Jim Edmonds
66.6 Manny Ramirez (if he plays 10 games in 2012 that will make him eligible later)
49.4 Andy Pettitte (if he pitches significantly in 2012+ that will make him eligible later)
37.7 Jason Kendall
34.5 Troy Glaus
30.4 Trevor Hoffman
29.3 Billy Wagner
28.8 Mike Lowell
28.1 Mike Hampton
27.3 Garret Anderson
25.8 Randy Winn
24.5 Luis Castillo
22.9 Mike Sweeney
21.3 David Eckstein
20.8 Ben Sheets

Man, it looks like the glut will just keep coming!
If Manny Ramirez does play a bit this year (10 games as stated in above post) that will mean there are only 2 serious candidates in 2016 (without looking into it I don't think Pettitte or Hoffman, etc. have that serious of a case), but considering how much recent backlog there will be by that time...
And I know it's been done before, but I'm going to see:
2013: Let's say Bonds, Clemens, and Piazza get in. New backlog: Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, Lofton.
2014: Let's say Maddux, Thomas, and Glavine get in. Add in Mussina and Kent to Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton.
2015: Let's say Biggio, Johnson, and Martinez get in. Now we're adding Smoltz & Sheffield to Schilling, Sosa, Lofton, Mussina, & Kent.
2016: Assuming Ramirez plays the 10 games this year, then Griffey and Edmonds are added to the recent pool of Smoltz, Sheffield, Schilling, Sosa, Lofton, Mussina, & Kent.
I'd say Griffey gets in here, and after that I can't even guess (not that I'm claiming the earlier guesses are correct)!
I guess the players I think would be likely to fight it out for 2nd and 3rd are Edmonds, Smoltz, Sheffield, Schilling, and Mussina; with Sosa, Kent, & Lofton further down.
Seriously: WOW.

Official list of new candidates for the 2016 election. Everyone with 18 WAR or 118 Win Shares.

2016 (December 7, 2015)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
403 79.2 Ken Griffey-CF
408 64.8 Manny Ramirez-LF/RF*
301 57.3 Jim Edmonds-CF
225 44.8 Jaime Moyer-P*
245 38.3 Jason Kendall-C
189 35.0 Troy Glaus-3B
188 27.0 Trevor Hoffman-RP
182 26.9 Billy Wagner-RP
230 20.9 Garret Anderson-LF
201 26.8 Luis Castillo-2B
144 26.4 Mike Hampton-P
185 21.9 Mike Lowell-3B
171 24.5 Randy Winn-RF/CF
162 21.7 Mike Sweeney-DH/1B
143 18.6 David Eckstein-SS
169 13.7 Brad Ausmus-C
141 18.3 Ronnie Belliard-2B
104 17.9 Chan Ho Park-P
130 10.2 Christian Guzman-SS
137 08.3 Bengie Molina-C
134 03.4 Jose Guillen-RF
118 14.4 Jeff Suppan-P*

I think 2016 is the next elect-4 year.

A bit of crystal gazing:

The current frontlog: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, Jeff Kent

2015: Top newcomers: Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Gary Sheffield, John Smoltz

Johnson and Martinez are elected easily. I predict that Schilling will finally be elected after being the top runner-up the last two years.

New backlog: Mussina, Sosa, Lofton, Kent, Sheffield, Smoltz

2016: Top newcomers: Ken Griffey Jr, Jim Edmonds, Trevor Hoffman

Griffey is elected easily. The frontlog breaks a bit as the top three returnees are elected. I predict Mussina, Sheffield and Smoltz, though not necessarily in that order. Edmonds joins the frontlog. I doubt Hoffman does well with this electorate.

New backlog: Sosa, Lofton, Edmonds, Kent

2017: Top newcomers: Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez

The three newbies lap the returnees. Probably in reverse alphabetical order- Rodriguez, Ramirez, Guerrero.

2018: Top newcomers: Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome

It's another elect-4 year but I'm not sure that the newbies claim all of the spots. Chipper is a lock. Thome seems like one as well. I'll go out on a limb and claim that Rolen beats out the backlog but that Andruw loses out to Lofton.

New backlog: Sosa, A Jones, Edmonds, Kent

2019: Top newcomers: Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera

No room for the frontlog again. Halladay should be elected easily. There might be a few anti-reliever holdouts to keep Rivera out of first but the consensus should see him elected. Helton will have to fight it out with Sosa and Jones but I predict he emerges victorious. Lance Berkman and Andy Pettitte, also eligible, are ticketed for the Hall of Very Good. If Alex Rodriguez is unable to come back from his suspension next season, he would become eligible for 2019. I expect that ARod would be elected and bump Helton into the backlog. But for now, I'm predicting that ARod plays in 2015.

2020: The top returnees- Sosa, A Jones, Edmonds, Kent- have a chance depending on how many top players retire in 2014. With Jeter, Ichiro and Giambi all 40 or above, there might be another big class of newbies. I'll say that 2020 sees a HoM class of Jeter, Ichiro, Sosa and Jones while Edmonds and Kent continue to wait for the next opening.

Official list of new candidates for the 2017 election. Everyone with 20 WAR or 120 Win Shares.

2017 (December 12, 2016)—elect 3(?)
WS war Name-Pos
338 68.4 Ivan Rodriguez-C
324 59.3 Vladimir Guerrero-RF
243 46.5 Mike Cameron-CF
258 42.7 Jorge Posada-C
245 38.5 Magglio Ordonez-RF
206 44.9 J.D. Drew-RF
170 46.0 Javier Vazquez-P
233 34.3 Derrek Lee-1B
236 32.1 Edgar Renteria-SS
176 34.6 Tim Wakefield-P
142 34.5 Chris Carpenter-P*
160 28.2 Melvin Mora-3B
197 21.4 Orlando Cabrera-SS
147 27.7 Carlos Guillen-SS
181 18.8 Pat Burrell-LF
141 24.3 Jason Varitek-C
138 22.3 Craig Counsell-2B/SS
116 24.9 Casey Blake-3B
124 20.8 Aaron Rowand-CF
158 14.3 Matt Stairs-RF/DH
124 13.6 Julio Lugo-SS

2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036-37, 2039, 2041 are elect 4

Are we putting Manny in 2016 or 2017? His 17 plate appearances for the Rays would normally get ignored by our standards but I'd rather follow the HoF lead on this one.

I'm kind of torn DL. We set our rules up like this for a reason ... I wonder if being consistent with our history or the Hall of Fame's is more important.

I lean towards the 2017 date for Manny (the same as the Hall of Fame). I appreciate the Hall of Merit rule that ignores late career cups of coffee and comebacks as it allows us to assess a player alongside his contemporaries. If Manny's attempted comeback in 2014 with the Iowa Cubs had turned into a few MLB games, I would have argued that we ignore those. However, since his Tampa Bay games are contiguous with the rest of his career, it makes sense to me to view 2011 as his final year and not 2010 despite the fact that he only played in 5 games.

I guess we need to settle the Manny issue, in a way that works going forward. While I'd lean towards sticking with him as a 2016 eligible, I can see that it's a reasonable compromise to count late career cups of coffee that are contiguous with the rest of the career as a season for our purposes. The fact that this will keep us in line with the Hall of Fame doesn't hurt either.

Also, we need to update the WAR numbers before we post the 2016 discussion thread. Probably makes sense to have both B-R and Fangraphs WAR, right?

I'd say we're better off staying consistent with our own rules.

In Manny's case, it's going to be many years (if ever) that the BBWAA will vote him into the Hall of Fame anyway, so it doesn't much matter if we are one year earlier than we would be if we waited from him to be eligible for the HoF.

I agree with Joe and Chris in keeping the rules as is. In my opinion, being consistent with our Hall of Merit institution is much more important than any future comparisons with the Hall of Fame.

That doesn't mean we can't change rules. We should enact rule changes as necessary to address substantive issues; we just shouldn't do so for the sole purpose of following whatever the HOF is doing.

I concur. To the extent that anyone in BBWAA notices who we select ahead of the BBWAA HOF vote in a given year, it would only have "value" in borderline cases. Absent PED considerations, most would agree that Manny is a slam-dunk Hall of Famer. So if we elect Manny ahead of a BBWAA HOF vote, it would really carry no weight since the PED issue is completely separate from "Merit".

One argument about pushing Manny back a year is he's still active and has yet to retire. He played in AAA in 2014 and who knows but he might play again next year. He's currently playing in the Dominican Winter League and has a 900 OPS.

If ManRam comes back, it would hardly be the first time an eligible player played in MLB.

This is a soon-to-be 43-year-old player who posted a sub-.700 OPS playing AAA-ball in 2012, 2013 and 2014. I suppose there's a remote possibility of him coming back and contributing at the MLB level. But if he somehow posts a 130 OPS+ playing as a part-time DH, is it going to change our analysis of his career?

I suppose we'll know for sure when we vote next December anyway. If he makes a comeback we bump him. If not, we include him on next year's ballot.

A few of us who also would have preferred 2017 eligibility (to match HOF now that we are in real time) wish we had seen this thread, and it was a mixed bag here with just a few opinions as it is. Apparently Joe went with 2016, though.