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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Once We Catch-Up: The Hall of Merit After 2007

This thread will deal with how we should handle the first annual election starting in 2008.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 05, 2006 at 08:02 PM | 641 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   601. Alex King Posted: December 20, 2010 at 06:35 PM (#3714654)
This list consists of the top 25 1961 seasons in bb-ref WAR, the top 25 in Win Shares, and the top 20 position players in DanR's WARP (WARP2 in the table).

Name           lgID     Pos    WS    WAR    WARP2
Mickey Mantle    AL    CF    48    11.9    10.8
Norm Cash        AL    1B    42    10.0    9.3
Willie Mays      NL    CF    34    9.4    7.2
Hank Aaron       NL    RF    35    9.2    9.0
Al Kaline        AL    RF    29    8.3    5.8
Rocky Colavito   AL    LF    33    7.9    6.4
Ken Boyer        NL    3B    27    7.8    6.6
Frank Robinson   NL    RF    34    7.6    8.2
Vada Pinson      NL    CF    32    7.4    7.2
Roger Maris      AL    RF    36    7.2    6.3
Jim Gentile      AL    1B    32    7.2    6.9
Eddie Mathews    NL    3B    33    7.0    7.3
Orlando Cepeda   NL    1B    29    6.1    5.6
Elston Howard    AL    C     29    5.9    5.5
Warren Spahn     NL    SP    25    5.9    
Don Drysdale     NL    SP    19    5.6    
Harmon Killebrew AL    1B    27    5.5    4.8
Roberto Clemente NL    RF    26    5.5    5.6
Don Cardwell     NL    SP    16    5.5    
Jack Kralick     AL    SP    17    5.2    
Sandy Koufax     NL    SP    20    5.0    
John Romano      AL    C     25    4.7    4.2
Camilo Pascual   AL    SP    17    4.7    
Bob Gibson       NL    SP    18    4.7    
Juan Pizarro     AL    SP    18    4.7    
Frank Lary       AL    SP    22    4.6    
Jim Landis       AL    CF    23    4.4    4.6
Ernie Banks      NL    SS    19    4.3    5.2
Roy Sievers      AL    1B    23    4.1    3.8
Woodie Held      AL    SS    21    4.0    4.7
Whitey Ford      AL    SP    22    3.9    
Wally Moon       NL    LF    25    3.4    3.3
George Altman    NL    RF    20    3.3    4.6
Luis Arroyo      AL    RP    23    3    
Norm Siebern     AL    1B    23    3    3.1 
   602. OCF Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:07 PM (#3714691)
1961 RA+ Pythpat records for the pitchers I have worked up, with one-year equivalent Fibonacci Win Points for the year in question:

Ford 19-13 (18)
Spahn 18-11 (17)
Bunning 17-12 (15)
Gibson 14-9 (14)
Koufax 16-13 (12)
Drysdale 15-12 (12)
Pappas 12-8 (12)
Pierce 7-9 (12)
Larry Jackson 14-10 (11)
Curt Simmons 13-9 (11)
Stu Miller 9-5 (11)
Wilhelm 8-4 (10)
Earl Wilson 12-9 (9)
Osteen 10-7 (9)
Wynn 7-5 (7)
Marichal 11-10 (6)
Friend 13-13 (6)
Broglio 10-10 (5)
Jim Perry 10-15 (0)
Roberts 4-9 (-3)

(I've left off some guys for whom it was the first or last year of their career with an equivalent record of something like 1-1.)

This was all acquired with an eye to HoM votes, so there's a bias in favor of substantial or interesting careers, hence it misses some of those who were good for that particular year. From Alex's list I seem to be missing Cardwell, Kralick, Pascual, Pizarro, Larry, and Arroyo. In any case, it doesn't look like a year for a pitcher as an MMP.

Biggest question comparing my list to the WS/WAR/WARP list: what is the correct ranking for Whitey Ford?
   603. Alex King Posted: December 20, 2010 at 07:20 PM (#3714714)
The big difference between the two lists is adjustment for defense--WAR penalizes Ford for the Yankees' fielding, which it rates as 14 runs above average, pro-rated to Ford's innings pitched. If I remember correctly, Win Shares adjusts the split between defense and pitching based on the team's DER; since the Yankees were second in the league in DER, WS should also adjust Ford's rating downwards, based on the quality of his defense.
   604. DanG Posted: December 20, 2010 at 08:58 PM (#3714799)
This list consists of the top 25 1961 seasons in bb-ref WAR, the top 25 in Win Shares
Three questions:

1 - To make this equitable, don't you need to adjust NL players unpward for the shorter schedule they played?
2 - Are there any league quality adjustments made to account for the NL being the stronger league?
3 - Doesn't the expansion in the AL increase the standard deviation of performance?
   605. OCF Posted: December 20, 2010 at 09:02 PM (#3714802)
Since Drysdale and Koufax had the same defense behind them, I'm guessing that the biggest difference between them is their own hitting. RA+ Pythpat and WS has them essentially tied, but WAR has Drysdale ahead by .6.

Drysdale .193/.244/.386, OPS+ 59 in 95 PA, oWAR +.5. Pretty good ISO and bases per hit there.
Koufax .065/.163/.065, OPS+ OPS+ -38 in 94 PA, oWAR -.5

This was the time of a single Cy Young and they gave that to Ford. bb-ref also lists a TSN Pitcher of the year, and that was Spahn - which looks like a pretty good choice.

Alex: is it correct that Bunning completely misses your list?
   606. Alex King Posted: December 21, 2010 at 02:36 AM (#3715103)
1 - To make this equitable, don't you need to adjust NL players unpward for the shorter schedule they played?

Yes, I completely forgot that the NL wasn't yet on the 162-game schedule. I'll fix that and create a revised list as soon as I can.

2 - Are there any league quality adjustments made to account for the NL being the stronger league?

WAR is league adjusted, DanR's WARP and Win Shares are not.

3 - Doesn't the expansion in the AL increase the standard deviation of performance?

Only DanR's WARP accounts for standard deviation of performance; the other metrics could be adjusted for standard deviations.

OCF: Bunning was credited with 19 Win Shares and 2.8 WAR that season, neither of which makes the top 25.
   607. Alex King Posted: December 21, 2010 at 03:04 AM (#3715116)
Revised 1961 eligibles list:

Name              lgID  Pos   WS    WAR     WARP2
Mickey Mantle     AL    CF    48    11.9    10.8
Norm Cash         AL    1B    42    10.0    9.3
Willie Mays       NL    CF    36    9.9    7.6
Hank Aaron        NL    RF    37    9.7    9.5
Al Kaline         AL    RF    29    8.3    5.8
Ken Boyer         NL    3B    28    8.2    6.9
Frank Robinson    NL    RF    36    8.0    8.6
Rocky Colavito    AL    LF    33    7.9    6.4
Vada Pinson       NL    CF    34    7.8    7.6
Eddie Mathews     NL    3B    35    7.4    7.7
Roger Maris       AL    RF    36    7.2    6.3
Jim Gentile       AL    1B    32    7.2    6.9
Orlando Cepeda    NL    1B    31    6.4    5.9
Warren Spahn      NL    SP    26    6.2    
Elston Howard     AL    C     29    5.9    5.5
Don Drysdale      NL    SP    20    5.9    
Roberto Clemente  NL    RF    27    5.8    5.9
Don Cardwell      NL    SP    17    5.8    
Harmon Killebrew  AL    1B    27    5.5    4.8
Sandy Koufax      NL    SP    21    5.3    
Jack Kralick      AL    SP    17    5.2    
Bob Gibson        NL    SP    19    4.9    
John Romano       AL    C     25    4.7    4.2
Juan Pizarro      AL    SP    18    4.7    
Camilo Pascual    AL    SP    17    4.7    
Frank Lary        AL    SP    22    4.6    
Ernie Banks       NL    SS    20    4.5    5.5
Jim Landis        AL    CF    23    4.4    4.6
Roy Sievers       AL    1B    23    4.1    3.8
Woodie Held       AL    SS    21    4.0    4.7
Whitey Ford       AL    SP    22    3.9    
Wally Moon        NL    LF    26    3.6    3.5
George Altman     NL    RF    21    3.5    4.8
Luis Arroyo       AL    RP    23    3.0    
Norm Siebern      AL    1B    23    3.0    3.1
Maury Wills       NL    SS    22    1.9    3.4
Stan Williams     NL    SP    17    4.8    
Mike McCormick    NL    SP    18    4.8    
Ray Sadecki       NL    SP    19    4.6 
   608. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 23, 2010 at 10:38 PM (#3716967)
Hey guys, I just gave this a quick skim. I've been pretty much off line the last two weeks, as my mother-in-law died, unexpectedly (only 61) and I've been dealing with family things.

Who is going to be the Grandma Johnny of the MMP? I assume we should get that person some admin privileges so they can create threads, etc., right?

Is there anything else that needs my attention? I don't have a ton of time to read through everything right now, but I can do what's needed if there are some tasks that need to be handled.
   609. DL from MN Posted: December 24, 2010 at 05:33 AM (#3717206)
Joe - Sorry to hear about your situation. This time of year is stressful enough already.

There are 2 open tasks - 1 is easy:
set up the Hall of Fame voting thread for the BBTF community
decide on whether you support instant runoff for next year

I agree, other people need admin rights. I'm content to let someone else step up but I'll do it if nobody else will.
   610. Alex King Posted: December 24, 2010 at 06:33 AM (#3717228)
Joe, I'm also sorry to hear about your loss.

I'd also add 3. Establish an MMP Rules discussion thread, with DanG's proposal in post 145 (?) as the starting point.
   611. DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2011 at 05:10 PM (#3724803)
New tasks -

Get the MMP project 1961 election discussion thread up
Get the MMP rules thread up
Get the 2012 HoM election thread up
   612. Howie Menckel Posted: January 16, 2011 at 06:33 AM (#3730893)
Diversion, for pitchers who many seem to think are underserved in the HOM
eager to be informed of any errors!

HOM Ps, by year, through 2011 election. Must have pitched 1 IP per G or 35 G, or MLE equivalent, and mainly this position to be listed:

1868-76 (1) - Spalding
1877
1878 (1) - Ward
1879 (2) - Ward Galvin
1880 (3) - Ward Galvin Keefe
1881-83 (4) - Ward Galvin Keefe Radbourn
1884 (4) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson
1885-88 (5) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers
1889 (6) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie
1890 (8) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie Young Nichols
1891 (9) - Galvin Keefe Radbourn Clarkson Caruthers Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1892 (6) - Galvin Keefe Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols
1893 (5) - Keefe Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols
1894 (5) - Clarkson Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1895 (5) - Rusie Young Nichols Griffith Wallace
1896 (4) - Young Nichols Griffith Wallace
1897-98 (4) - Rusie Young Nichols Griffith
1899 (4) - Young Nichols Griffith McGinnity
1900 (5) - Young Nichols Griffith McGinnity Waddell
1901 (7) - Young Nichols Griffith McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson
1902 (7) - Young Griffith McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster
1903 (8) - Young Griffith McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown
1904-05 (8) - Young Nichols McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown
1906-07 (8) - Young McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh
1908 (10) - Young McGinnity Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson Mendez
1909 (9) - Young Waddell Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson Mendez
1910 (9) - Young Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown Walsh WJohnson Mendez Williams
1911 (9) - Plank Mathewson RFoster Brown Walsh WJohnson Mendez Williams Alexander
1912 (10) - Plank Mathewson RFoster Brown Walsh WJohnson Mendez Williams Alexander Rixey
1913 (8) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey
1914 (9) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown WJohnson Mendez Williams Alexander Faber
1915 (10) - Plank Mathewson RFoster TF Brown WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth
1916 (9) - Plank Foster WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth Covaleski
1917 (7) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Ruth Covaleski
1918 (3) - WJohnson Williams Covaleski
1919 (6) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski
1920 (5) - Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski
1921 (7) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan
1922-23 (8) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance
1924 (9) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons
1925 (11) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing
1926 (12) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Covaleski Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster
1927 (11) - WJohnson Williams Alexander Rixey Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige
1928 (11) - Williams Alexander Rixey Faber Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige
1929 (12) - Williams Rixey Faber Rogan Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell
1930 (11) - Williams Rixey Faber Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell
1931 (10) - Williams Faber Vance Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown
1932 (11) - Williams Vance Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1933 (9) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1934 (8) - Lyons Ruffing BFoster Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Dihigo
1935 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Hubbell Ferrell RBrown (Dihigo)
1936 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Paige Hubbell Ferrell RBrown (Dihigo)
1937 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing BFoster Hubbell Ferrell RBrown
1938 (7) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Hubbell Ferrell RBrown Feller
1939-40 (6) - Lyons Grove Ruffing Hubbell RBrown Feller
1941 (7) - Lyons Ruffing Paige Hubbell RBrown Feller Newhouser
1942 (7) - Lyons Ruffing Paige Hubbell RBrown Newhouser Wynn
1943-44 (4) - Paige RBrown Newhouser Wynn
1945 (3) - Paige RBrown Newhouser
1946 (3) - Paige Feller Newhouser
1947 (6) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn
1948 (5) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn
1949-50 (7) - Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1951 (6) - Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce
1952 (9) - Paige Feller Newhouser Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm
1953 (8) - Paige Feller Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1954-56 (7) - Wynn Lemon Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford
1957 (7) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning
1958-60 (9) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax
1961 (9) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1962 (11) - Wynn Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1963 (10) - Spahn Roberts Pierce Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson
1964 (10) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry
1965 (11) - Spahn Roberts Wilhelm Ford Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro
1966 (10) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Koufax Marichal Gibson GPerry Jenkins Palmer Sutton
1967 (11) - Wilhelm Drysdale Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Seaver Sutton Carlton
1968 (10) - Wilhelm Drysdale Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Seaver Sutton Carlton
1969 (12) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers
1970 (13) - Wilhelm Bunning Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven
1971 (11) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven
1972 (13) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage
1973 (12) - Marichal Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan
1974 (12) - Gibson GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage
1975-79 (12) - GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley
1980-81 (13) - GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1982 (11) - GPerry Niekro Jenkins Palmer Sutton Carlton Fingers Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1983 (11) - GPerry Niekro Jenkins Seaver Sutton Carlton Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1984-85 (11) - Niekro Seaver Sutton Carlton Fingers Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb Saberhagen
1986 (9) - Niekro Seaver Sutton Carlton Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1987 (7) - Sutton Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb Saberhagen
1988-89 (6) - Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb Saberhagen
1990 (4) - Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1991 (4) - Ryan Gossage Eckersley Saberhagen
1992 (1) - Eckersley
1993 (2) - Gossage Eckersley
1994 (3) - Gossage Eckersley Saberhagen
1995 (2) - Eckersley Saberhagen
1996-97 (1) - Eckersley
1998 (2) - Eckersley Saberhagen

Cone (332 pts in 2011) would be 1988-95; 1997-99
Reuschel (235) would be 1973-81; 1985-89
Tiant (183) would be 1965-69; 1972-79
Redding (180) would be 1911-21, roughly
Newcombe (157) would be 1949-53; 1955-60
Walters (137 pts) would be 1936-45
Willis (132) would be 1898-1910
Bridges (107) would be 1931-40; 1942-43

and don't forget that Clemens, Maddux, RJohnson, Pedro, Glavine, Smoltz etc will help fill in the latter era even before we get to the tougher ones
   613. DL from MN Posted: January 19, 2011 at 01:51 AM (#3732300)
Where's Kevin Brown?
   614. OCF Posted: January 19, 2011 at 10:39 PM (#3732906)
Things to do in the middle of January ...

Well before there was a Hall of Merit, I was a guy who wrote baseball-themed memos to a small circle of friends. One thing I did for several years was name year-end All-Star teams for each league. My tools: for hitters, Runs Created (computed myself using open-source formulas from my collection of Abstracts); for pitchers RA-Pythag equivalent records. I occasionally looked at raw fielding stats but wasn't very systematic. I knew that park effects existed, but didn't have a way to quantify them for everyone. My teams always had not just a starting lineup but also a full 25-man roster. The reserves weren't always the next best players - they had to have a reason for being on the roster (including that C, SS, and CF all had to be covered on the bench). I frequently moved players out of position when some position had overflow talent compared to another; you'll see a particularly glaring case of that in the all-90's team below.

In 1999 I went ahead and named an all-decade team for the 1990's. Yeah, I know, arbitrary endpoints, round-number fetishes, and all that. I recently decided to return to the form and and name an all-decade team for the 2000's - using some of the additional tools I now know about. Just to put it somewhere, I'll go ahead and post these two teams.

The 1990's team:

C: Mike Piazza
1B: Mark McGwire
2B: Roberto Alomar
3B: Craig Biggio
SS: Barry Larkin
LF: Barry Bonds
CF: Ken Griffey Jr.
RF: Albert Belle
DH: Frank Thomas
SP: Greg Maddux
SP: Roger Clemens
SP: Randy Johnson
SP: Pedro Martinez
SP: Tom Glavine
CL: John Wetteland
-
C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Jeff Bagwell
SS/IF: Cal Ripken, Jr.
OF: Rickey Henderson
OF: Tony Gwynn
P: David Cone
P: Kevin Brown
P: John Smoltz
RP: Trevor Hoffman

MVP of the decade: Barry Bonds
CY of the decade: Greg Maddux

In retrospect, knowing what I know now, I'd make a few changes. Perhaps the most obvious would be putting Larry Walker in for Albert Belle.

Looking back on it: the majority of these players are still, after all these years, not even eligible for the Hall of Merit. The only one we've definitively rejected is Belle - and if I fixed it with the Walker-for-Belle move, then not even that. And all of the not-yet-eligibles have strong HoM cases, except the relief pitchers - and we'll at least talk about Hoffman.

Now the 2000-2009 All-Decade team:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Scott Rolen
SS: Alex Rodriguez
LF: Barry Bonds
CF: Carlos Beltran
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Manny Ramirez
SP: Roy Halladay
SP: Randy Johnson
SP: Johan Santana
SP: Pedro Martinez
SP: Roy Oswalt
CL: Mariano Rivera
-
C: Jorge Posada
IF: Jeff Kent (you can think of Utley/Kent as platoon 2B)
SS: Derek Jeter
CF: Jim Edmonds
IF/OF: Chipper Jones
P: Mike Mussina
P/RP: John Smoltz
RP: Joe Nathan
RP: Francisco Rodriguez
LRP: Billy Wagner

MVP of the decade: Albert Pujols
CY of the decade Roy Halladay

Plenty to argue about there, of course. The best player not on the roster is Todd Helton. His problem is that there's no place for him. You can't put him at 1B and making him the DH loses his defensive value.

Are all of them future HoMers? Well, not the non-Rivera relief pitchers. Leaving them out: some, like Mauer, haven't done enough yet, but still seem like a good bet. I'd worry about Beltran and Oswalt as being a little too tailored to the arbitrary endpoints and not having enough outside the decade. And Utley may have gotten too old before he became a star to really have a whole HoM career. Did Kent have enough? We'll have that argument before too long.
   615. OCF Posted: January 20, 2011 at 02:58 AM (#3733031)
A question about the post I just made - a question I have no idea how to answer myself. Are there any NPB or Cuban players who should be included in the place of any of the ML players listed there, for either team?

----

To guess at the answer to DL from MN's question, I think the bottom of Howie's post should read

1988 (6) - Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb Saberhagen
1989 (7) - Brown Blyleven Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb Saberhagen
1990 (5) - Brown Ryan Gossage Eckersley Stieb
1991 (5) - Brown Ryan Gossage Eckersley Saberhagen
1992 (2) - Brown Eckersley
1993 (3) - Brown Gossage Eckersley
1994 (4) - Brown Gossage Eckersley Saberhagen
1995 (3) - Brown Eckersley Saberhagen
1996-97 (2) - Brown Eckersley
1998 (3) - Brown Eckersley Saberhagen

(Is Howie ordering those names in some particular way? I didn't really try to match that.)

Of course we could easily wind up at things like

1996 (11) Brown Eckersley Schilling Mussina Smoltz Rivera Glavine Johnson Clemens Martinez Maddux
   616. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 20, 2011 at 03:14 AM (#3733037)
Great #614 post OCF.
   617. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 20, 2011 at 03:22 AM (#3733048)
Is DL going to be the MMP admin person? He said he'd step up if no one else would . . . had fra paolo also mentioned interest?
   618. OCF Posted: January 20, 2011 at 08:40 AM (#3733167)
A WAR tidbit tangentially related to those all-decade teams.

Accumulated WAR, 1987 through 2004, by Barry Bonds: 160.6

Accumulated WAR, 1987 through 2004, by the highest-ranking NL player or pitcher not named Barry Bonds (15 different individuals over the 18 years): 160.2

Although I confess I'm a bit skeptical, particularly about his 1987-1989 value - was he really worth that much on defense?
   619. DL from MN Posted: January 21, 2011 at 03:47 AM (#3733793)
Let me know what I would need to do.
   620. fra paolo Posted: January 21, 2011 at 04:41 AM (#3733809)
had fra paolo also mentioned interest?

I had. And I am still willing to help.
   621. OCF Posted: January 23, 2011 at 03:29 AM (#3734916)
Back on HoM business itself, for the 2012 election, can we have discussion threads for, say, Bernie Williams, Tim Salmon, Javy Lopez, and Brad Radke?

Filing issue: at what point do we create a category on the main page for "Selected 21st Century Players"? I suppose we can still plausibly call those four 20th century players, but at some point it's going to tip.
   622. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: February 05, 2011 at 01:04 PM (#3743888)
DL/fra - I just sent the request off to the powers that be to get you admin access. Sorry for the delay.
   623. fra paolo Posted: February 05, 2011 at 05:34 PM (#3743999)
Thanks, Joe!
   624. Howie Menckel Posted: February 07, 2011 at 08:23 PM (#3745351)
My order was based on seniority in terms of who had a qualifying season first....
   625. sunnyday2 Posted: February 10, 2011 at 12:41 AM (#3747210)
I'm good with 1961.

Length of ballot--at least 15. Once upon a time Joe said he wanted the MMP to be able to identify the top player at every position and maybe (I don't remember) it was even the top player at every position (the all-star team) for each league, and we were talking about a ballot of 50. I was never a big supporter thereof, other than to get it off the ground.

But the big issue, and I don't mean to be a jerk about it, but I think somebody should ask the question. The big issue is Joe's role. Joe is busy and has disappeared for weeks at a time over the past couple of years. Surely that is his prerogative. But who makes decisions that allow for forward motion, e.g., size of ballot?

If DL is the Grandma on this project, and if Joe agrees, I'd suggest a Board of Directors consisting of DL, fra and 3 others who can be counted on to be here every day (or thereabouts). A 3-2 vote gets it done and the project moves forward. Maybe Joe is even on this board but if one of the 5 board members is MIA, 3 members can take action.

Howie, O and DanG have been with this project at least since 2003 and are still here now. They would be more than credible to me. What say you?
   626. Alex King Posted: February 10, 2011 at 04:43 AM (#3747312)
A board of directors for the MMP sounds good to me.
   627. DL from MN Posted: February 10, 2011 at 06:28 PM (#3747664)
I'm fine with that, I would rather move forward with something imperfect and change it later than not move forward at all. I also don't have admin access as far as I can tell.
   628. DanG Posted: February 10, 2011 at 08:16 PM (#3747777)
Length of ballot--at least 15.
I offered my thoughts on this recently, post #587.

a Board of Directors consisting of DL, fra and 3 others...Howie, O and DanG have been with this project at least since 2003
December 2001 for me. I will continue to offer whatever ideas I can, whether officially part of a Board or not.
   629. sunnyday2 Posted: February 11, 2011 at 06:16 AM (#3748178)
Mickey Mantle AL CF 48 11.9 10.8
Norm Cash AL 1B 42 10.0 9.3
Al Kaline AL RF 29 8.3 5.8
Rocky Colavito AL LF 33 7.9 6.4
Roger Maris AL RF 36 7.2 6.3
Jim Gentile AL 1B 32 7.2 6.9
Elston Howard AL C 29 5.9 5.5
Harmon Killebrew AL 1B 27 5.5 4.8
Jack Kralick AL SP 17 5.2
John Romano AL C 25 4.7 4.2


For the AL I came up with:

1. Mantle
2. Maris
3. Cash
4. Colavito
5. Gentile
6. Killebrew
7. Romano
8. Al Smith
9. Landis
10. Kaline

Jack Kralick was not the best pitcher in the AL in 1961.

Now I think I got the NL around here somewhere....
   630. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: February 11, 2011 at 05:15 PM (#3748359)
Maris over Cash how? Record or no record...
   631. lieiam Posted: March 13, 2011 at 05:39 PM (#3769794)
I don't mean this in a rude way... but is anything happening here? I think the plan had been to start in January and there have been postings but nothing has 'really' started. I'm interested in the project and just wanted to find out if this is going to get started or not. Thanks!
   632. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: March 18, 2011 at 06:37 PM (#3773451)
I thought Dan L and fra paolo were given access . . . please let me know if there's still an issue there . . . or if you need a tutorial on how to create threads, etc..
   633. DL from MN Posted: March 22, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3775923)
I finally got my password restored after a month. I do need a tutorial on how to create threads.
   634. DanG Posted: April 26, 2011 at 05:07 AM (#3809022)
Fangraphs WAR 1961.

Mickey Mantle    Yankees 11.1
Norm Cash    Tigers      10.8
Hank Aaron    Braves      9.4
Willie Mays    Giants     8.9
Rocky Colavito    Tigers  8.8
Jim Gentile    Orioles    8.6
Al Kaline    Tigers       8.4
Roger Maris    Yankees    7.9
Ken Boyer    Cardinals    7.7
Frank Robinson    Reds    7.6
Eddie Mathews    Braves   7.6
Vada Pinson    Reds       7.3
Harmon Killebrew Twins    7.0
Orlando Cepeda    Giants  6.1
Roberto Clemente Pirates  5.8
Jim Piersall    Indians   5.6
Johnny Romano    Indians  5.5
Roy Sievers    White Sox  4.9
Brooks Robinson   Orioles 4.9
Jim Landis    White Sox   4.9
Woodie Held    Indians    4.7
Jackie Brandt    Orioles  4.5
Ernie Banks    Cubs       4.5
Earl Battey    Twins      4.4
Ron Hansen    Orioles     4.4
Clete Boyer    Yankees    4.3
Tito Francona    Indians  4.2
Tony Kubek    Yankees     4.2
Frank Bolling    Braves   4.2
Dick Stuart    Pirates    4.1
Joe Adcock    Braves      4.1 
   635. DanG Posted: April 26, 2011 at 05:28 AM (#3809027)
Fangraphs FIP leaders 1961 (minimum 220 IP)
Sandy Koufax    Dodgers  255.2    3.00          
Jim O
'Toole    Reds      252.2    3.13          
Whitey Ford    Yankees   283.0    3.14          
Bob Friend    Pirates    236.0    3.15          
Jim Bunning    Tigers    268.0    3.23          
Camilo Pascual    Twins  252.1    3.39          
Jack Kralick    Twins    242.0    3.40          
Frank Lary    Tigers     275.1    3.43          
Stan Williams    Dodgers 235.1    3.44          
Don Mossi    Tigers      240.1    3.59          
Don Cardwell    Cubs     259.1    3.61          
Steve Barber    Orioles  248.1    3.64          
Warren Spahn    Braves   262.2    3.66          
Bob Purkey    Reds       246.1    3.75          
Lew Burdette    Braves   272.1    3.77          
Joey Jay    Reds         247.1    3.79          
Bill Monbouquette RedSox 236.1    3.80          
Don Drysdale    Dodgers  244.0    3.89          
Mike McCormick    Giants 250.0    3.91          
Ken McBride    Angels    241.2    3.94 
   636. OCF Posted: April 27, 2011 at 05:54 AM (#3810102)
We probably ought to have a 1961 discussion thread active - and a few more years besides. But as long as Dan is posting stuff like that here ...

Here is the exact same list of pitchers as in Dan's FIP list, by equivalent RA+ record. This list should be quite different, since RA+ and FIP aren't the same thing at all. Furthermore, Dan ranked them by a pure rate stat - but as you can already see on his list, the IP don't range all that widely.

If and when I do lists like this, I'm going to keep the leagues separated. League strength arguments are going to enter, and in particular, league strength is a pretty important issue in 1961.

AL:
Ford: 19-13
Kralick: 17-10
Lary: 18-13
Bunning: 18-12
Mossi: 16-10
Pascual: 16-12
McBride: 16-11
Barber: 16-12
M'boqtte: 15-11
NL:
Spahn: 18-11
O'Toole: 17-11
Purkey: 16-11
McCormick: 16-11
Koufax: 16-12
Drysdale: 16-11
Cardwell: 16-13
Williams: 14-12
J. Jay: 15-13
Friend: 13-13
Burdette: 15-16

The rank in each league is by equivalent Fibonacci Win Points, based on equivalent W-L, calculated before roundoff. Roundoff can do funny things, so in each league you see at least one 16-12 listed as better than at least one 16-11; and that is the correct order.

Any other pitchers you'd like to see this for?

A couple of notes: one, this was just not a year for outstanding pitching performances. No one really stands out from the crowd. And man, both Los Angeles teams played in terrific hitters parks that year.
   637. DanG Posted: April 27, 2011 at 01:11 PM (#3810216)
Any of these relievers worth a look?

Rk           Player WAR ERA+  WHIP   WPA    IP  Tm Lg
1       Billy Hoeft 3.9  192 1.167 1.848 138.0 BAL AL
2       Luis Arroyo 2.8  171 1.109 3.226 119.0 NYY AL
3      Hoyt Wilhelm 2.6  169 1.185 2.753 109.2 BAL AL
4        Stu Miller 2.6  145 1.082 4.159 122.0 SFG NL
5    Ron Perranoski 2.5  163 1.342 1.819  91.2 LAD NL
6        Tom Morgan 2.2  192 0.993 0.731  91.2 LAA AL 
   638. bjhanke Posted: May 20, 2011 at 10:28 AM (#3833230)
Dan -

I would say no. Not if you're trying to come up with a top ten. The best is almost certainly Hoeft, who was used in the swingman role, instead of as a pure reliever. He had 12 starts (no one else on your list has more than 2), and a few of them were very very good, which leads to the high ERA+. As a RELIEVER, he wasn't the best on the list; it's the starts that make his stat line. In 1961, MLB was still trying to figure out how to handle the fact that most starters could not pitch complete games more than half the time, and often much less. How to organize the bullpen behind those starters was a huge unresolved issue. You could get large numbers of decisions as your team's primary reliever (Miller and Arroyo), or you could be a real swingman, like Hoeft, or almost anything except what we now regard as a "closer." So you never get the closer role's leverage applied to your whole season, and you never get enough innings to compete with the top starters. That limits where you can rank, almost regardless of how well you actually pitch when you're in there. - Brock
   639. Mike Emeigh Posted: May 20, 2011 at 12:57 PM (#3833251)
How to organize the bullpen behind those starters was a huge unresolved issue.


Not entirely. By 1960, most teams had one ace reliever whose job it was to pitch whenever the game was close in the late innings, and that reliever is usually pretty easy to pick out. The 50s were the primary sorting-out period, and even there you could see the evolution toward designating one fireman, It's probably no accident that the primary movers toward the single-ace model were (a) the Yankees under Stengel and (b) the Rickey-influenced teams (Dodgers/Cardinals/Pirates - yes, as bad as they were in the 50s the Pirates still had a relief ace).

Stengel's pattern is interesting, in that (a) he always had a relief ace in the pen but the identity of that individual changed almost every year and (b) he never used that pattern in the World Series. In 1960, for example, he was using Arroyo consistently down the stretch as the ace - but then Arroyo barely pitched against the Pirates.

-- MWE
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