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Sunday, October 21, 2012

Orlando Hernandez

Eligible in 2013.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2012 at 06:50 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4278240)
Any MLEs for El Duque would be greatly appreciated.
   2. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4280569)
In proportion to his regular season numbers, he's got to have one of the biggest playoff boosts: 106 IP (14 GS, 19 G), 2.55 ERA, 9-3. Regular season: 1,314 IP, 4.13 ERA, 90-65.
   3. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 23, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4280614)
Not a HOM voter, but I was curious. This is a list of MLB pitchers who at age 32+ had 190 to 230 starts with an ERA+ from 100 to 120, sorted by WAR (El Duque had 211 starts and a 110 ERA+). From 1901 on, also. There are a lof of HOF, HOM, and HOVG players on the list. I chose starts rather than IP because this list flatters Hernandez more, but still it's interesting that he has a career that's broadly comparable with the latter career of some very good pitchers.

Rk              Player  WAR ERA+     IP
1       Walter Johnson 29.6  119 1823.2
2         Carl Hubbell 29.2  118 1803.0
3        Joe McGinnity 28.2  117 1998.1
4           Babe Adams 26.8  110 1817.0
5        Virgil Trucks 25.6  119 1675.2
6           David Cone 24.8  117 1206.0
7         Jesse Haines 23.1  115 1779.0
8         Rube Walberg 22.9  106 1689.1
9            Bob Ewing 22.4  115 1724.2
10       Larry Jackson 22.4  112 1590.1
11       Andy Pettitte 21.8  118 1338.0
12     Doyle Alexander 21.7  108 1553.2
13   Orlando Hernandez 21.5  110 1314.2
14       Bucky Walters 21.4  115 1567.1
15          Ray Kremer 21.2  112 1695.1
16          Curt Davis 20.7  110 1819.2
17       Rick Reuschel 20.2  111 1457.0
18     Burleigh Grimes 20.0  113 1739.2
19           Bob Smith 19.8  102 1952.1
20           Rick Reed 18.6  111 1279.1
21        Danny Darwin 17.8  101 1580.2
22          Geoff Zahn 17.6  111 1484.0
23       Robin Roberts 16.7  101 1561.0
24        Jeff Fassero 14.9  100 1604.1
25      Paul Derringer 14.8  110 1602.1
26         Jerry Reuss 12.7  101 1466.1 


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/23/2012.
   4. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 23, 2012 at 10:54 PM (#4281191)

In proportion to his regular season numbers, he's got to have one of the biggest playoff boosts: 106 IP (14 GS, 19 G), 2.55 ERA, 9-3. Regular season: 1,314 IP, 4.13 ERA, 90-65.

He started his postseason career 8-0 and had a Mariano-like postseason reputation, at least among Yankee fans, for a while. Eventually age/talent/luck caught up with him but his post-season record is still excellent.
   5. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 25, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4282941)
He never got to have a postseason in 2006...grumble...grumble...
   6. DanG Posted: October 25, 2012 at 12:22 PM (#4282988)
but still it's interesting that he has a career that's broadly comparable with the latter career of some very good pitchers.
I posted a similar list in comment #24 after the "Free El Duque" article.

I also pointed out that Hernandez' career WAR from age 32+ is right about at the mean for HOF starting pitchers at the same age range.
   7. bjhanke Posted: October 25, 2012 at 08:16 PM (#4283497)
Just checked to see where Orlando ranks within the list in comment #3. He has the third-lowest IP, ahead of only Cone and Rick Reed. In ERA+, he's tied for 16th out of 26, with Babe Adams (600 more IP, not in Hall), Curt Davis (also 600 more IP and not in Hall), and Paul Derringer (only 400 more IP, also not in Hall). The 13th-highest IP (essentially, the center of the group) is Paul Derringer, with 1602.1 IP, not in Hall. The 13th best ERA+ is a three-way tie for 111 (Reuschel, Reed, Zahn), none of whom are in the Hall. Of the six guys who are actually in the Hall, five (Johnson, Hubbell, McGinnity, Pop Haines and Burleigh Grimes) clearly beat Orlando both in terms of IP and in ERA+. Haines has 450 more IP than Orlando, and a 115 ERA+ to Hernandez 110. Haines is often considered to be one of the worst Hall of Famers of all time. So, basically, any case for Orlando derived from this list is the sole HoFer Robin Roberts, during the decline phase of his career. I remember the front half of Roberts' career as being pretty healthy.

If you complain that the list is not supposed to be by IP or ERA+, but by WAR, then Orlando is right in the middle of this group: Andy Pettite, Doyle Alexander, Bucky Walters, and Ray Kremer. Pettite might get into the Hall due to New York hype and postseason performance, but he has the HIGHEST WAR in the group of five, Compared to Haines, Pettite has 400 fewer IP against a 3-point ERA+ advantage. And Haines is considered to be a mistake. - Brock Hanke
   8. DanG Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:57 AM (#4319272)
I also pointed out that Hernandez' career WAR from age 32+ is right about at the mean for HOF starting pitchers at the same age range.
I meant "median".

Anyhoo, this is mainly to point out that El Duque was omitted from the list of newly eligible players in the Ballot Thread intro.

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