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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Paul Molitor

Eligible in 2004.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 19, 2007 at 04:27 PM | 112 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 27, 2007 at 10:47 PM (#2501394)
I don't know if this has been pointed out here, but the HOF does consider his primary position as DH (though I don't agree with that single-position classification for him myself).
   102. Howie Menckel Posted: August 28, 2007 at 01:30 AM (#2501568)
Well, Jeter isn't going to get full credit as "SS" from any sane system, because he isn't that good at it.
But he often hasn't been terrible, and I think he has a perfect HOM path in my system - "durable, consistent, a very good hitter overall AND plays a key position, and doesn't kill you in the field either."

Jeter could quit today and I'd have him high on an HOM ballot. Very long prime for an SS already.

Molitor will be my No. 1 for 2004, easily.
   103. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2007 at 01:48 AM (#2501591)
I'm guessing that at the end of 2007 Jeter will have about 8,000 PAs with an OPS+ of, what?, 125? Or maybe not quite.

Vern Stephens, adjusted to 162 games, accumulated 7,200 PAs at 118.

Stephens was a B glove, Jeter a D+. Pesky was an A-, ARod a C+.

So Jeter is essentially Vern Stephens if you ask me. More longevity, less glove. Both played SS alongside a 3B who was a better SS than he was for reasons that...well, what can you say?

Of course, just looking at the 4 of them you'd say Stephens-ARod and Pesky-Jeter. But no, Jeter is Stephens, ARod is Pesky.
   104. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 28, 2007 at 01:58 AM (#2501601)
Are discounting Stephens for war inflated achievements sunnyday? That lets a little air out of that 118. Stephens has still be underrated, but Jeter already has more than a year of extra PA, at a much higher offensive level. I don't think the better D makes up for that.
   105. BDC Posted: August 28, 2007 at 02:01 AM (#2501604)
Jeter is essentially Vern Stephens if you ask me

Well, but you know the weaknesses of that argument. Stephens played right through the war, having three of his best OPS+ years then. Stephens didn't play full-time after age 29, was basically washed up, his power gone, at 31 -- so pro-rating him to 162-game seasons is kind to him but understates Jeter's much greater durability.
   106. Howie Menckel Posted: August 28, 2007 at 02:38 AM (#2501640)
Yeah, I have Jeter well above Stephens, and a sudden decline phase can't undo it now...
   107. sunnyday2 Posted: August 28, 2007 at 04:01 AM (#2501701)
I meant they were alike as types--offense first SSs that another guy played out of position for.

Though, I would argue they are pretty close in ability/skills. But, sure, Jeter has more playing time and that gap will increase. I don't see how Stephens' early decline negates pro-rating him to 162 for his full seasons, however, though I also agree that you could dock him a few OPS+ points. I don't know how much people discount OPS+ for the war years--I use 10 percent. 10 percent X 3/10 of his career equal 3 points, or 115. Not a big difference.

So I would still say that qualitatively, they have a lot in common. Quantitatively, Jeter is now (2006-2007) starting to pull away.
   108. rawagman Posted: August 28, 2007 at 01:50 PM (#2501845)
I am one of Vern Stephens' best friends, and I would still have Jeter well ahead of him through any and all units of measurement I use. I don't think that Jeter's defense is as bad as some people believe (not nearly as good as other beleive, though, either). What I do believe is that Stephens = Nomar.
   109. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 28, 2007 at 03:27 PM (#2501908)
Jeter is also above Stephens for me. Captain Clutch is way over the line, IMO.
   110. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: August 28, 2007 at 05:05 PM (#2502002)
yes, stephens or boudreau comp nicely to nomar in terms of career path.
   111. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: August 03, 2008 at 05:35 PM (#2888377)
Here's Molitor in my WARP, corrected for his extreme multi-positionality that drives my robotic spreadsheet nuts. I really could see a pure peak voter who values durability leaving him off the ballot entirely.

YEAR SFrac BWAA    BRWA FWAA Replc    WARP
1978  0.82 
-0.9     0.2 -0.3  -2.6     1.6
1979  0.94  2.1     0.2  0.8  
-2.6     5.7
1980  0.74  1.6     0.4  0.1  
-2.1     4.2
1981  0.62  0.5    
-0.2 -0.3  -0.9     0.9
1982  1.08  3.3     0.3 
-0.3  -2.1     5.4
1983  0.99  1.0     0.2  1.3  
-1.9     4.4
1985  0.93  0.9     0.0  0.5  
-1.8     3.2
1986  0.70  0.2     0.3  0.1  
-1.3     2.0
1987  0.78  4.1     0.5  0.1  
-0.8     5.5
1988  1.01  2.9     0.5 
-0.1  -1.4     4.7
1989  1.02  3.1    
-0.2  0.7  -1.8     5.3
1990  0.67  1.2     0.2  0.0  
-1.1     2.5
1991  1.09  4.4     0.3 
-0.1  -0.3     4.9
1992  1.02  3.9     0.2  0.1  
-0.2     4.4
1993  1.05  4.2     0.5  0.0  
-0.1     4.9
1994  1.04  3.5     0.3  0.0  
-0.0     3.9
1995  0.96  0.3     0.0  0.0  
-0.0     0.3
1996  1.03  1.5     0.3  0.2  
-0.1     2.1
1997  0.86  0.8     0.2  0.0  
-0.1     1.1
1998  0.80 
-1.1     0.5  0.0  -0.0    -0.5
TOTL 18.16 37.7     4.8  2.9 
-21.3    66.6
TXBR 17.36 38.7     4.3  2.9 
-21.2    67.2
AVRG  1.00  2.1     0.3  0.2  
-1.2     3.7 
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