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Friday, July 28, 2006

Pitchers

I’ve finally decided to go with a thread for the pitcher chart . . .

Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:15 AM | 180 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:22 AM (#2115306)

First chart, starters eligible through 1982 that I've run through the system . . . includes all HoMers, and anyone that's received a vote recently and many others:

Starting Pitcher      PA   aDRA   tIP     WAR   RSAR  BRAR PSup  InRP  BRP   LI   LIP   Ladj    1     2     3    4    5    Top3  Top5
Walter Johnson*     2.337  3.12  5577.3  161.6  1544   82   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.8  366.0  -0.03  15.1  12.8  12.3 12.2 11.6  40.1  63.9
Cy Young*           1.865  3.40  5727.0  136.5  1305  -20   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  322.0   0.00  10.0   9.7   9.3  9.3  8.3  27.0  46.6
Pete Alexander*     1.789  3.36  5186.0  129.3  1235   11   0.0   0.0  0.0  2.0  206.7   0.02  11.3  10.8  10.6  9.2  8.6  30.0  50.5
Lefty Grove*        1.595  3.24  4683.7  116.5  1114  -57   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.5  492.7   0.02  10.2  10.1   9.2  8.5  8.3  29.6  46.3
Warren Spahn*       1.591  3.67  5268.7  118.1  1129   52  11.1   0.5  0.0  1.6  137.0  -0.04   9.6   9.3   8.0  7.5  7.5  25.1  42.0
Bob Feller*         1.439  3.68  4962.3  105.5  1008  -12   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  172.3   0.02  10.9  10.4  10.3  9.0  8.6  29.8  49.2
Christy Mathewson*  1.360  3.50  4094.3   98.4   941   36   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  232.0   0.04  10.9   9.3   9.2  8.4  8.4  28.6  46.2
Robin Roberts*      1.239  3.87  4747.0   93.0   889   20  -8.2   2.1  0.3  1.6  121.3  -0.01  10.4   9.4   9.1  7.6  6.9  28.9  43.4
Kid Nichols*        1.206  3.62  4184.7   90.9   869   -3   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  176.0   0.04   9.4   8.4   8.1  6.8  6.5  23.3  39.3
Bob Gibson*         1.165  3.58  3685.0   86.6   828   48  -2.9  -1.8  0.9  1.4   88.0  -0.02  11.1   8.3   8.3  7.7  6.9  27.7  42.3
Ted Lyons*          1.103  3.93  4630.7   86.7   829   28   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.5  255.0   0.02   7.9   7.4   6.7  6.5  6.0  22.0  34.5
Red Ruffing*        1.101  4.16  4787.3   86.8   829  117   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  219.3   0.06   7.9   7.1   7.0  6.6  6.1  20.7  34.7
Eddie Plank*        1.077  3.65  3873.7   83.6   799   10   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.5  276.0   0.03   6.8   6.7   6.3  6.3  6.3  19.3  32.4
Carl Hubbell*       1.067  3.54  3552.0   79.5   760   -8   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.5  224.0  -0.04  10.4  10.2   8.5  8.1  6.5  26.9  43.7
Early Wynn*          .990  4.32  5203.7   78.3   748   58   2.8   0.4  0.6  1.6  156.3   0.13   7.8   6.4   6.0  5.7  5.7  18.8  31.6
Don Drysdale*        .984  3.62  3275.7   74.4   711   32  15.9   5.9  0.9  1.1   93.7  -0.06   9.3   7.6   7.4  6.7  6.2  22.3  37.1
Whitey Ford*         .946  3.78  3677.3   74.6   713   18   4.2  -1.2  0.8  1.2  132.0   0.14   6.7   6.3   6.3  6.0  5.6  17.1  30.9
Dazzy Vance*         .919  3.37  2842.0   68.1   650  -18   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.0  228.3   0.01  10.4  10.4   8.1  6.8  6.7  24.0  42.3
Hal Newhouser*       .916  3.66  3152.0   68.0   650    8   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.8  185.0   0.11   9.9   9.3   9.1  8.0  7.1  28.3  43.4
Amos Rusie*          .912  3.52  2851.0   66.0   631    0   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  158.0   0.03  10.6  10.1   7.6  7.3  6.7  27.4  42.3
Eppa Rixey*          .912  4.08  4524.0   73.2   699  -15   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  332.3   0.03   7.2   6.2   5.8  5.8  4.6  19.1  29.6
Starting Pitcher      PA   aDRA   tIP     WAR   RSAR  BRAR PSup  InRP  BRP   LI   LIP   Ladj    1     2     3    4    5    Top3  Top5
Jack Quinn           .903  4.07  4463.0   73.4   702  -10   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  778.0   0.03   6.7   5.1   4.9  4.8  4.7  13.8  26.1
Ed Walsh*            .892  3.40  2567.0   63.1   603    7   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  346.3   0.01  10.7  10.6  10.3  9.8  7.3  30.7  48.6
Sandy Koufax*        .889  2.93  2213.3   63.5   607  -20  -1.7  -0.8  0.1  1.0  122.0  -0.07  11.9  10.4  10.3  8.2  7.3  30.3  48.0
Jim Bunning*         .876  3.99  3739.0   66.8   638  -10  -3.6  -1.5  0.3  1.4  140.0   0.05   8.9   7.6   7.2  7.0  6.6  23.6  37.1
Red Faber*           .868  3.95  3989.7   68.2   651  -33   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  451.3  -0.02   9.9   8.9   5.2  4.5  4.0  24.0  32.5
Juan Marichal*       .847  3.83  3288.7   64.2   614    5   2.6  -0.2  0.3  1.5   30.7  -0.02   9.8   8.6   7.4  6.6  6.5  24.9  38.9
Stan Coveleski*      .828  3.52  2853.7   62.6   598  -29   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.5  153.0  -0.05   8.2   7.9   7.6  7.4  6.6  23.7  37.7
Wes Ferrell*         .809  3.92  2617.7   59.7   571  103   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.8  115.0   0.05   9.6   8.6   8.5  6.9  6.7  23.8  40.3
Urban Shocker        .801  3.55  2660.7   61.3   586   15   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  189.3  -0.06   8.3   7.7   6.3  6.2  5.5  22.3  34.0
Billy Pierce         .795  3.91  3440.3   62.4   596   -4   4.7  -2.2 10.4  1.4  228.0   0.09   7.7   6.5   6.5  5.8  5.6  18.5  32.0
Tommy Bridges        .793  3.73  3131.3   62.9   601  -12   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  135.3   0.07   6.5   6.0   5.6  5.5  5.0  16.7  28.6
Burleigh Grimes      .771  4.30  3991.7   60.2   576   41   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  319.0   0.03   7.7   7.2   7.0  5.7  4.7  17.3  32.3
Waite Hoyt           .760  4.00  3628.3   60.9   582  -15   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  639.7  -0.04   7.0   5.8   5.5  4.7  4.6  16.0  27.6
Don Newcombe         .760  4.09  3169.0   59.4   568   78  -3.3  -0.2 -0.9  1.2  112.3  -0.03   7.3   6.9   6.6  6.3  4.8  17.6  32.0
Bucky Walters        .741  4.07  3081.0   56.5   540   56   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6   56.0   0.03  10.4   7.3   7.1  6.3  4.5  24.8  35.6
Ed Cicotte           .741  3.78  2874.3   56.6   541   -2   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  366.3  -0.01  10.1   9.5   6.3  5.2  3.7  23.1  34.8
Mordecai Brown*      .736  3.78  2822.0   56.9   544    8   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  431.3   0.10   8.5   8.5   6.5  6.0  5.1  23.0  34.6
Rube Waddell         .736  3.49  2454.7   55.5   531  -13   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  220.3  -0.03   9.9   8.8   7.0  6.5  5.2  23.5  37.4
Dutch Leonard        .735  3.91  3325.7   58.7   561  -19   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  472.3   0.05   6.9   6.6   6.1  5.8  5.2  17.1  30.7
Dolf Luque           .729  4.01  3180.3   57.4   548   29   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  374.3   0.02   9.6   7.8   5.1  4.1  4.1  20.5  30.9
George Uhle          .727  4.18  3025.3   56.3   538   80   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  343.0  -0.02   8.9   8.1   6.2  5.7  5.2  16.6  34.0
Bob Lemon*           .726  4.10  2913.0   55.4   529   76   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  220.0   0.08   8.7   8.0   6.9  5.9  5.5  22.6  35.0
Starting Pitcher      PA   aDRA   tIP     WAR   RSAR  BRAR PSup  InRP  BRP   LI   LIP   Ladj    1     2     3    4    5    Top3  Top5
Bob Shawkey          .724  3.85  2999.3   57.1   545    3   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  408.7  -0.05   7.8   6.7   6.1  5.5  4.7  17.5  30.8
Herb Pennock         .719  4.16  3499.3   56.8   542   -9   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  453.0  -0.02   7.9   7.0   5.9  5.4  4.5  20.3  30.7
Virgil Trucks        .716  3.92  3278.3   57.0   545  -25   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  392.0   0.11   7.2   6.4   6.2  4.5  4.3  14.6  28.6
Babe Adams           .715  3.88  2704.0   56.5   540   20   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  327.7   0.02   7.9   6.5   6.3  4.8  4.4  16.8  30.0
Bobo Newsom          .715  4.19  3845.0   56.0   536  -24   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  234.0   0.08   8.0   7.6   5.7  4.8  4.7  20.4  30.9
Carl Mays            .714  3.96  2793.0   55.8   534   54   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  414.7  -0.02   7.6   6.3   5.7  5.6  5.6  18.9  30.8
Clark Griffith*      .711  3.82  2676.3   55.6   531   29   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  282.3   0.02   7.5   6.6   6.2  5.3  5.2  17.3  30.9
Vic Willis           .708  3.93  3221.0   55.2   528  -28   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  138.0   0.05   7.0   6.9   6.4  6.1  5.5  17.7  31.9
Lon Warneke          .703  3.87  2784.3   54.4   520   17   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  237.7  -0.04   8.2   8.1   6.9  6.0  4.1  22.3  33.2
Dizzy Dean           .702  3.35  2008.3   51.3   490   10   0.0   0.0  0.0  2.0  157.3  -0.06   9.9   9.7   7.9  6.9  6.6  27.5  41.1
Dizzy Trout          .702  3.95  2838.7   54.0   516   29   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  394.0   0.12  10.8   7.4   6.5  4.4  3.8  21.8  33.1
Joe McGinnity*       .697  3.86  2900.7   52.6   503  -19   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  222.0   0.06   9.3   8.3   6.9  6.6  5.4  24.5  36.6
Wilbur Cooper        .695  4.12  3154.7   54.6   522   34   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.0  298.7   0.05   7.0   6.1   5.7  5.5  4.9  17.4  29.2
Mel Harder           .687  4.11  3504.7   54.0   516  -27   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  312.0   0.08   8.2   6.9   5.3  5.3  5.2  20.4  31.0
Bob Friend           .685  4.11  3498.7   54.2   518  -24  -7.7   1.2  2.4  0.9  232.0  -0.06   6.3   6.2   5.9  5.6  5.5  17.2  29.5
Larry Jackson        .680  4.02  3221.7   54.2   518   -6  -4.8   1.3 -0.5  1.4  248.3  -0.06   6.4   6.0   5.5  5.4  4.6  16.5  27.9
Paul Derringer       .676  4.17  3677.3   54.0   516  -19   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  269.3   0.00   6.7   5.8   5.3  5.3  4.7  17.3  27.8
Curt Simmons         .672  4.20  3571.3   54.4   520    6   2.5  -1.1  4.6  1.0  187.3  -0.04   5.3   4.9   4.8  4.7  4.7  14.7  24.5
Lefty Gomez          .641  3.77  2541.0   48.7   466  -27   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.9   85.0   0.05   9.4   8.8   6.4  4.9  4.3  18.5  33.8
Eddie Rommel         .638  3.70  2476.0   50.3   481  -10   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  719.0  -0.04   7.4   6.3   5.9  5.2  4.9  18.5  29.7
Murry Dickson        .625  4.24  3362.7   51.1   488   21   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.0  830.0   0.00   5.0   4.7   4.6  4.5  4.4  14.0  23.3
Starting Pitcher      PA   aDRA   tIP     WAR   RSAR  BRAR PSup  InRP  BRP   LI   LIP   Ladj    1     2     3    4    5    Top3  Top5
Chief Bender         .618  4.03  2706.0   49.7   475   23   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4  328.0   0.03   6.0   5.9   5.2  4.6  4.5  17.1  26.2
Hippo Vaughn         .604  3.91  2454.0   46.7   446   -2   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.3  165.7   0.02   8.4   7.0   5.8  5.6  5.2  21.2  32.1
Camilo Pasqual       .583  4.31  2965.0   45.9   439   16   7.2  -4.8 -1.8  0.9  249.3   0.12   7.9   6.7   5.9  5.2  4.3  17.8  30.0
Jesse Tannehill      .568  3.97  2205.0   44.6   426   50   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.2  158.3  -0.01   7.4   6.1   6.0  5.2  4.6  18.6  29.3
Milt Pappas          .546  4.20  3131.3   45.2   432  -13   4.8  -9.2 -2.3  0.9  103.7   0.07   4.5   4.4   4.3  3.9  3.9  11.6  20.9
Addie Joss           .540  3.52  1899.0   42.3   404  -10   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1   97.7  -0.01   7.2   5.7   5.6  5.0  5.0  18.5  28.5
Smokey Joe Wood      .534  3.59  1371.3   41.5   396  107   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  161.0   0.00   9.4   7.4   5.8  3.4  3.1  20.2  29.1
Jesse Haines         .527  4.18  3009.7   43.7   418  -18   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.0  408.7   0.01   5.9   4.7   3.6  3.3  3.1  13.6  20.6
Lew Burdette         .511  4.45  3142.0   41.4   396   18   8.0  -6.0  3.8  1.2  460.0  -0.06   6.1   5.2   5.2  4.4  3.4  13.9  24.2
Jim Perry            .509  4.43  3171.3   41.9   400   12 -16.3  -6.1 -1.1  1.0  329.3   0.12   5.8   4.5   4.3  3.9  3.7  13.7  22.2
Jack Chesbro         .503  4.10  2325.0   39.4   376   -3   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.0  211.7   0.00   8.6   5.5   5.5  4.4  4.3  18.4  28.3
Sam Leever           .494  3.89  2186.3   39.9   381   -5   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  294.0   0.05   6.4   5.2   5.0  4.4  4.2  13.2  25.3
Rube Marquard        .488  4.35  2944.3   39.4   377  -15   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.1  344.0   0.02   6.4   5.8   5.7  3.7  3.6  17.8  25.1
Allie Reynolds       .456  4.25  2682.3   37.2   356  -10   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.6  276.0   0.12   5.5   5.4   5.2  3.6  3.4  16.1  23.2
Mel Parnell          .446  3.94  1792.7   34.4   329   -4   0.0   0.0  0.0  1.4   86.3   0.07   8.6   5.6   5.5  4.8  4.6  19.7  29.2
Mike Cuellar         .422  4.40  2586.0   34.3   328   -9  16.6  -0.5  9.6  1.2  117.3   0.08   5.8   5.3   4.4  3.3  3.2  13.4  22.1 

Have to put the legend in the next post, due to character limitations.

2. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:22 AM (#2115307)

PA - Pennants Added; aDRA - my version of Defense adjusted runs allowed, which uses PythaganPat exponents, and the Baseball Prospectus adjustments from NRA to DERA, 4.50 is league average; tIP - my version of translated IP, which accounts for leverage of relief innings, and adjusts starters based on era norms based on the league leaders IP and the size of the league; WAR - my wins above replacement, using aDERA, tIP and accounting for pitcher hitting; RSAR - my version of runs saved above replacement (includes pitching and batting); BRAR - my version of batting runs above replacement, which uses the average pitcher that season as a baseline, but also includes hitting and fielding while not pitching; PSup - starting pitcher bullpen support, taken directly from Baseball Prospectus (negative means good support); InRP - Inherited Runs Prevented, taken directly from Baseball Prospectus (positive is good); BRP - bequeathed runs prevented, taken directly from Baseball Prospectus (positive means good support); LI - Leverage Index, 1960-2005, taken directly from Baseball Prospectus, 1871-1959 estimated based on Pete Palmer's formula, the only difference being that I cap it at 3.00, not 2.00; LIP - Leveraged innings pitched; Ladj - League Adjustment to aDRA, adjusts for things like expansion and weaker leagues in-season, but it is NOT a timeline adjustment; the higher the number the weaker the league. 1 - pitcher's best season WAR; 2 - pitcher's second best season WAR; 3,4,5 - figure it out, you are smart; Top3 - pitcher's top 3 consecutive seasons of WAR; Top5 - pitcher's top 5 individual WAR seasons.

Also note HoMers are marked with a "*"

3. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:23 AM (#2115308)

Extra credit . . .

Extra credit:

Alexander, 1918, partial 1919
Grove, conservative 1922-24
Feller, 1942-45 at 1938, 47, 50 level)
Nichols, 1902-03
Lyons, declining 1943-45
Ruffing, declining 1943-44, doubled 1945
Wynn, conservative 1944-46
Ford, conservative 1951-52
Rusie, 1896
Rixey, 1918, partial 1919
Quinn, 1916-17, 3/4 of 1918
Faber, 1918
Shocker, doubled 1918
Bridges, declining 1944-45
Newcombe, 1946-48, 1952-53
Shawkey, 1918
Pennock, 1918
Trucks, 1944-45
Warneke, minimal 1944
Simmons, 1950-51
Dickson, 1944-45

4. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:30 AM (#2115311)

Pre-1893 pitchers:

Starting Pitcher      PA   aDRA   tIP     WAR RSAR  BRAR PSup InRP BRP   LI   LIP   Ladj    1    2    3    4    5   Top3  Top5
John Ward*           .820  4.07  1471.7  65.0  621  390  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0  150.7  0.02   7.5  6.4  6.0  5.9  4.9  17.8  30.7
John Clarkson*       .777  3.74  2806.3  57.0  545    0  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.3   45.0  0.08  12.2  9.3  8.7  5.7  4.8  25.2  40.7
Charley Radbourn*    .726  3.90  2750.3  54.4  520   37  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.1  108.0  0.11  10.5  8.9  6.9  5.9  5.3  25.3  37.6
Tim Keefe*           .663  4.03  3016.7  52.4  501    6  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0   26.0  0.23   7.4  6.0  5.9  5.9  4.7  19.3  29.9
Pud Galvin*          .599  4.19  3409.7  47.3  452  -44  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0   69.7  0.10   7.8  6.9  6.0  5.0  4.0  17.6  29.6
Bob Caruthers*       .595  4.09  1655.7  45.1  431  175  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0  128.3  0.31   8.9  8.1  7.1  5.2  5.2  22.2  34.5
Al Spalding*         .585  3.76  1817.3  42.8  409   62  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.0    0.0  0.05   9.4  7.6  7.2  7.1  6.7  23.3  38.0
Mickey Welch         .553  4.19  2739.3  43.8  418    6  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.9   53.0  0.10   6.5  6.4  5.6  5.2  4.2  15.9  27.9
Charlie Buffinton    .547  3.89  2065.7  41.7  399   24  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.1   72.0  0.14   8.2  8.2  6.6  4.8  3.9  18.2  31.7
Jim Whitney          .542  4.21  2056.0  40.6  388   94  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.8   75.3  0.10  10.5  6.5  6.3  6.2  5.0  23.3  34.5
Jim McCormick        .541  3.92  2338.7  42.5  407    2  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.1   30.0  0.14   7.7  5.9  5.0  4.9  4.6  18.1  28.1
Jack Stivetts        .517  4.23  2041.3  40.7  389   98  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.2  203.0  0.21   7.6  5.5  5.0  4.7  4.1  17.2  26.9
Silver King          .469  3.95  1988.3  35.8  342    3  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.9  119.3  0.14   8.8  8.5  4.7  4.2  3.8  22.1  30.0
Bobby Mathews        .455  4.32  2913.3  36.7  351  -43  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.9   29.0  0.23   6.2  5.5  4.7  4.4  3.4  16.5  24.3
Tony Mullane         .431  4.65  2760.7  34.5  329   61  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0  217.3  0.44   6.7  6.4  4.3  4.0  3.8  12.1  25.2
Dave Foutz           .408  4.49  1122.7  32.5  311  187  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.7  123.0  0.36   6.3  6.2  5.2  4.0  3.7  15.5  25.4
Tommy Bond           .407  4.11  1868.0  31.7  303    9  0.0  0.0  0.0  0.6   50.0  0.06   6.4  6.2  6.1  5.4  4.0  18.7  28.1
Bill Hutchison       .382  4.19  2028.7  29.8  284  -10  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.2  127.3  0.05   7.5  7.4  4.1  2.8  2.7  19.0  24.5
John Ward (pitching) .326  4.07  1471.7  25.7  245   14  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0  150.7  0.02   7.5  5.2  4.4  3.2  2.9  17.1  23.2
Candy Cummings       .276  3.92  1253.3  21.6  207  -13  0.0  0.0  0.0  1.0    0.0  0.04   7.0  5.0  4.3  3.7  1.6  16.3  21.6 

5. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:37 AM (#2115314)

Relievers, still have some work to do here, guys like Dick Hall, Johnny Klippstein, etc..

Relief Pitcher     PA   aDRA   tIP    WAR  RSAR  BRAR PSup  InRP  BRP   LI    LIP    Ladj   1    2    3    4    5   Top3  Top5
Hoyt Wilhelm*     .837  3.45  2905.7  67.2  642  -12   1.7  10.0  18.7  1.4  1871.0  0.07  7.6  6.2  5.6  5.1  4.7  14.8  29.3
Stu Miller        .584  3.62  2087.3  45.9  438   -2   0.4  27.0  -1.6  1.4  1103.3  0.01  8.2  7.2  5.6  4.7  4.2  16.1  29.8
Lindy McDaniel    .557  4.08  2590.7  44.6  427   -3   0.7   2.5  16.5  1.3  1672.7  0.00  7.7  6.6  5.4  3.8  3.7  13.8  27.2
Firpo Marberry    .504  3.98  2334.7  40.3  385   -4   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.4   730.0  0.02  7.8  5.3  5.2  4.7  3.3  15.8  26.3
Roy Face          .493  3.69  1894.0  40.0  383   -3   0.0  18.8  11.6  1.4  1186.3 -0.06  5.9  5.3  5.2  5.1  3.1  14.2  24.7
Ellis Kinder      .468  3.61  1794.0  37.6  360  -13   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.5   611.3  0.07  6.9  5.4  4.5  4.4  3.6  14.3  24.8
Ron Perranoski    .387  3.92  1562.0  30.9  296   -4   0.0   0.3  28.3  1.4  1170.7  0.02  6.2  5.9  4.0  4.0  3.7  12.1  23.8
Johnny Murphy     .332  4.15  1806.0  27.9  266   -1   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.7   881.0  0.08  4.7  4.4  2.9  2.9  2.7   8.1  17.6
Dick Radatz       .326  3.42   952.7  24.5  234   -4   0.0   3.0   5.0  1.4   693.7  0.13  8.0  7.4  5.3  3.7  0.1  20.7  24.5
Clint Brown       .323  4.24  1688.7  26.8  257    5   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.4   595.0  0.04  4.7  4.5  3.7  3.3  2.5  10.5  18.6
Ron Kline         .312  4.60  2400.3  26.2  250  -22  -3.5 -28.6   3.7  1.2   871.0  0.00  5.6  4.2  3.2  2.2  2.0  11.3  17.2
Al Worthington    .278  4.12  1470.7  23.7  226    3   0.0  -4.2   4.0  1.3   838.0  0.01  4.5  3.3  2.6  2.2  2.1   9.9  14.6
Jim Konstanty     .248  4.12  1303.7  20.2  194   -4   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.3   749.0  0.04  7.1  3.4  2.0  1.9  1.6  12.1  16.0
Eddie Fisher      .242  4.57  1633.7  19.9  190   -2   0.0   3.8  11.6  1.1  1186.0  0.11  6.0  3.4  3.1  2.6  2.0  11.9  17.0
Ted Abernathy     .226  4.45  1330.7  18.9  181    1   0.0  -2.9  20.9  1.2   913.0  0.05  5.5  3.7  2.1  1.7  1.6   9.6  14.6
Joe Page          .215  4.42  1137.3  16.6  158    5   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.7   510.3  0.07  7.0  6.4  1.4  0.8  0.6  14.8  16.2
Phil Regan        .203  4.57  1522.7  16.4  157    1   3.6  -6.8   8.0  1.2   721.0  0.03  7.0  3.0  2.4  1.0  0.9  10.0  14.3
Marv Grissom      .202  4.06   972.0  16.5  158   -7   0.0   0.0   0.0  1.3   492.7 -0.01  6.4  2.9  2.3  2.0  1.1  11.5  14.6
Frank Linzy       .182  4.35  1052.7  15.3  147    3  -1.1 -11.6  20.6  1.3   812.3  0.01  4.3  2.9  2.7  2.4  1.4   9.7  13.7
Bob Lee           .146  3.85   597.3  11.7  112   -1   0.3  -4.5   2.3  1.3   457.7  0.10  5.0  4.9  1.4  0.4  0.0  11.3  11.7
Hal Woodeshick    .141  4.86   950.0  11.8  113   -5  -3.2 -13.2  28.6  1.2   567.3  0.01  4.1  3.1  2.2  1.8  0.6   9.5  11.8
Larry Sherry      .136  4.61   928.0  11.8  113    5   1.4   1.7  13.6  1.2   702.0  0.00  3.0  2.6  1.8  1.2  1.1   7.5   9.8
Luis Arroyo       .096  4.66   653.3   8.0   77    3   0.0  -8.8   1.6  1.4   319.3  0.01  4.4  2.2  0.8  0.3  0.3   5.2   8.0
Jack Baldschun    .063  5.29   737.7   5.5   53   -1   0.0 -29.2  22.6  1.1   704.0 -0.03  2.2  1.4  1.3  0.6  0.0   4.9   5.5 

6. Joe Dimino Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:38 AM (#2115316)

Reliever extra credit includes some for Johnny Murphy in 1944-45, Ron Kline in 1953-54 (minimal) and Jim Konstanty in 1945.

7. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: July 28, 2006 at 01:31 PM (#2115384)

Thanks Joe. I dont' really have time to look over this, but you are right about Shocker. I am not a Quinn fan, I like my HOMers to have some nice peaks, but Shocker is intersting. I will have more when I get a chance to look over everything.

8. andrew siegel Posted: July 28, 2006 at 05:48 PM (#2115605)

Great work, Joe. I'll take another look at Quinn and have already moved Bridges and Shocker up. I'm finding it very hard, however, to justify having Shocker ahead of Bridges. Bridges was consistenly in the top 10 in his leage in adjusted ERA+, Shocker somewhat less so. Shocker was a little more durable when compared to his contemporaries, but only marginally so. It's close, but I think the edge goes to Bridges.

9. Mike Webber Posted: July 28, 2006 at 06:22 PM (#2115631)

It seems like this may be why Mickey Welch hasn't gotten over the hump as the final 19th century pitcher to get into the HOM. He's too similar to the three guys immediately behind him on this list, Buffinton, Whitney and McCormick - in peaky-ness I guess.

and the two players immediately ahead of him have plenty of non-pitching credit - Spalding in pre-league and short season NA credit and Caruthers with big hitting credits.

Mickey's big hook is that magic number - 300 wins.

Gray Ink really doesn't tell much of anything in any given season about a 19th century pitcher does it?

10. Jim Sp Posted: July 28, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2115813)

joe, how are you getting the warp numbers? are those readily available?

11. Rob_Wood Posted: July 28, 2006 at 10:19 PM (#2115909)

I echo the thanks to Joe! I have been a faithful friend of Tommy Bridges for a long time, less so with Shocker
and not at all friendly to Pierce. I'll have to revisit Shocker and Pierce.

12. Chris Cobb Posted: July 30, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2118606)

Joe,

Quick Query: would you consider MLE credit for Griffith, for the major-league seasons he lost due to contraction?

13. Chris Cobb Posted: July 30, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2118607)

Joe,

Quick Query: would you consider MLE credit for Griffith, for the major-league seasons he lost due to contraction?

14. sunnyday2 Posted: July 31, 2006 at 12:56 AM (#2118798)

If so, how about Rube Waddell?

15. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: July 31, 2006 at 01:04 AM (#2118830)

If so, how about Curt Davis?

16. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#2119230)

Just back from vacation . . . I replied to Jim Sp.'s question via email, since I checked that last night . . .

Chris - what's Griffith's case, I wasn't aware of it. Generally I'd think no, unless it was 1900 specific - by 1901 the overall AL/NL was much weaker than the late 90s NL, so I'd need specific reasons, but I'm open the case.

As for Waddell - not for me. His issues prior to Mack were of his own making . . . I suppose one could argue that he was still pitching somewhere, and I suppose that deserves some credit, but I'm not too keen on it from what I know right now.

I would say that Waddell's and Brown's records are pretty similar . . . but as of right now, I kind of lean towards that meaning Brown (and Griffith) was a mistake, rather than Waddell should be included. But there is an argument that could be made for 1890s-1910s pitchers overall having shorter careers - except that you then see guys like Young and Nichols who didn't. I'm kind of leaning towards Young, Rusie, Nichols being it - but I guess I could see opening it up for Brown and Waddell too.

I do think the Waddell backers should be hitching their horses to the "he was just as good as Mordecai Brown" campaign - that's what I'd tell them if I were the 'campaign strategist'. :-)

17. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:31 AM (#2119231)

Also - it's very clear to me that Iron Man McGinnity has Rube Waddell's spot in the Hall of Merit - kind of like Mike Schmidt has Tim Raines' 1986 MVP Award . . .

18. baudib Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:38 AM (#2119239)

I would say that Waddell's and Brown's records are pretty similar . . . but as of right now, I kind of lean towards that meaning Brown (and Griffith) was a mistake, rather than Waddell should be included. But there is an argument that could be made for 1890s-1910s pitchers overall having shorter careers - except that you then see guys like Young and Nichols who didn't. I'm kind of leaning towards Young, Rusie, Nichols being it - but I guess I could see opening it up for Brown and Waddell too.

I think the problem you have if you knock Brown out is that you have this incredibly dominant team totally unrepresented. The HOF put in four members of the squad. Can you imagine the 1950s Brooklyn Dodgers or 1930s Yankees with no Hall of Famers?

19. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:07 AM (#2119276)

I see what you are saying baudib . . . but it's not unrepresented - for one, we have Sheckard in.

But it was an incredibly balanced team, that had no weak links, but no particularly incredible ones either. Also, the team dominated the weaker league at the time, so they weren't quite as dominant as they appear on the surface.

I mean, which team was better, the 1998 Yankees, that had only 2 definite Hall of Famers (Jeter and Rivera, though IMO Raines and Bernie and maybe Cone also belong), or the 2005 squad that may have 6 (ARod, Jeter, Sheffield, Rivera, Johnson, Mussina)?

Balance and having no below average players anywhere is often underrated in terms of building a great team.

20. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:48 AM (#2119302)

Actually the 2005 squad has 7 with RJ and maybe eight depending on how Matsui's Japanese league credit is weighed that that is a very long shot. But 2006 has all of those guys AND Sidney Ponson! 7 HOFers, 4 HOVG (Damon, Posada, Matsui, now Abreu) and a Knight! Good at baseball AND good as rescuing damsels in distress! How can they lose?

21. sunnyday2 Posted: July 31, 2006 at 12:34 PM (#2119377)

Hey guys, vote for Rube Waddell! He was just as good as Iron Man McGinnity!

22. sunnyday2 Posted: July 31, 2006 at 12:36 PM (#2119378)

Yeah, as for the '00s Cubs: By analogy take the Tigers of '84 and '06. Most agree that Willie Hernandez was a truly horrific MVP pick. The fact is the both of these Tiger teams had many outstanding players but no real MVP candidate. A team (IOW) can be dominant without an MVP or a HoF/HoMer.

23. Chris Cobb Posted: July 31, 2006 at 03:54 PM (#2119588)

Joe,

Griffith's case doesn't have anything to do with the 1900 contraction. It's the contraction in 1892. Griffith breaks into the majors in 1891, then the AA folds, and he doesn't get another shot until the tail end of the 1893 season. If not for contraction, he would have another two full major league seasons in 1891 and 1892. Griffith is the only HoMer/serious candidate who was affected in this way by contraction. If you give him credit for these years (as a number of voters have) he would move up at least into the borderline area, I think.

Statistics for Griffith's minor league play during 1892-93 were posted at some point, perhaps on his thread. I'll take a look for them, if you or others are interested.

24. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:47 PM (#2119667)

Ah, OK Chris - I was wondering about why he needed credit, my bad, wrong contraction on the brain.

To me there's not much there.

The NL of 1892 was just as good as the NL of 1881. I actually show the NL of 1892 being slight worse than the NL of 1891 (.31 vs. .27 as the adjustment). I show the entire period of 1882-1891 as somewhat watered down, so 1892 was just a return to normalcy for me - missing that season isn't any different than missing 1881 to me.

Also Griffith wasn't all that good in 1891, once you adjust for the AA being terrible and the fact that he had a very good defense behind him that year, relative to the rest of the AA - he pitched for the two best teams in the league. I have his 1891 as a 4.84 aDRA, in 167.7 tIP.

I suppose I could give him a little credit for 1892-93, depending on how well he performed in his other play (and the quality of the league), so yeah, if you could find the numbers, that'd be great!

25. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 04:51 PM (#2119676)

But really to me, it's more like he got lucky to perform in a watered down AA in 1891, when he really shouldn't have gotten his shot until his 1893 call up . . .

26. Mike Webber Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:06 PM (#2119701)

Joe, should Carl Mays also get 1918-1919 Extra Credit?

27. sunnyday2 Posted: July 31, 2006 at 05:21 PM (#2119736)

And Eddie Cicotte for 1921-1930? ;-)

28. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:04 PM (#2119795)

And Addie Joss for 1911 to the end of time?

; ) x 2

29. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:14 PM (#2119812)

Mike - Mays threw 293.3 innings in 1918 and 266 in 1919 - and the 1969 MacMillan makes no note of his being in the military service - am I missing something?

For the record, I have those rated as his 5th and 6th best seasons, both score 5.0 WAR.

30. Mike Webber Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:20 PM (#2119820)

Just the short season aspect of it, that is what I thought you were crediting Alexander and Quinn and the other pitchers of that period. I realize some of those guys actually served and/or played in a ship building league like Joe Jackson.

31. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:21 PM (#2119821)

Whoops, make that his 6th and 7th best seasons.

Mays takes a pretty big hit for his defenses, he played behind great defenses according to Prospectus. The defense adjustment costs him .23 off his aDRA, which is gigantic, the biggest I've found for a non-19th century pitcher, except for Three-Finger Brown (.27). Leever and Adams are over .20 too.

This isn't un-overcomable (new word!) either, Kid Nichols defensive adjustment is .30 and he's the 9th best pitcher we've voted on so far.

32. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:23 PM (#2119824)

Ah Mike - the short-season aspect has been credited for everyone - tIP is based off the league leaders (up to the top 12, depending on the number of teams in the league) in IP for any season. So season length is automatically taken into account.

All of the players above (except Murphy) are being given credit for actual military service. Murphy took a war-industry job, so I counted him too.

33. Joe Dimino Posted: July 31, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2119827)

BTW, I'll add a column for the defensive adjustment at some point, but I kind of screwed up and have it one row below the other 'totals' in my spreadsheet. So on the totals worksheet, I can't just 'copy down' to add it, I've got to add the cell reference for everyone by hand, and haven't had the time yet. I'll do it this week.

34. KJOK Posted: July 31, 2006 at 07:06 PM (#2119897)

If I'm reading this right, the reason Quinn scores so high is because of 'league quality adjustment?'

If so, I consider that to be one of the weakest of the components, so color me not convinced about Quinn.

35. jimd Posted: August 01, 2006 at 12:30 AM (#2120654)

It'll be interesting to see how Charlie Hough and Dennis Martinez fare in this metric.

36. rawagman Posted: August 01, 2006 at 08:45 AM (#2121153)

un-overcomable (new word!)

The actual word is "insurmountable"

37. Jim Sp Posted: August 01, 2006 at 05:27 PM (#2121584)

Looking ahead I'm curious how Mike Marshall is going to compare with the other relief aces...his career was very different from the others, with some huge years mixed in with very blah years.

38. Joe Dimino Posted: August 01, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2121807)

Huh KJOK? I think you have to be reading it wrong.

Quinn scores so high because he was pretty good forever. IIRC you are a peak voter, so you aren't ever going to like Quinn.

The league quality adjustment is a net negative for Quinn, it adds .03 to his career aDRA.

His two 'boosts' above the 'normal' numbers are:

1) 1916-18 PCL credit, when he was clearly a major league quality pitcher, but circumstances prevented him from playing in the majors

2) He threw more relief innings than anyone on the chart, and at a 1.26 average LI that starts to add up too.

Basically from 1913 to 1932 he never had a really bad year (1915 I guess) and he had a bunch of really good ones, though none were great.

He only had one year better than 5.1 WAR - but he had 12 between 3.3 and 5.1 and nine above 4.0. That's the definition of a 'career value candidate'.

Without the PCL credit, he'd be around .775 PA, making him similar to Grimes. The PCL credit gives him 1 league average season, 1 above average year and about 70% of another above average year.

39. Joe Dimino Posted: August 01, 2006 at 08:24 PM (#2121822)

When I say 'never had a really bad year' that's an understatement - never had a below average season is more accurate (save 1915).

From 1913-32, Quinn's only seasons below a 4.36 aDRA (4.50 is average) are 1915 (4.95), 1916 (4.56), and 1929 (4.56).

He was under 4.00 in at least 162 translated IP in 1910, 1914, 1918, 1919, 1920, 1922, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1927 and 1928. He was also a pretty good relief ace from 1930-32. It all starts to add up after a couple of decades.

40. Daryn Posted: August 01, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2121825)

Quinn was one of the ten oldest players in the league for 15 years. That's pretty amazing.

41. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 02, 2006 at 08:09 AM (#2122964)

Joe,

Do you calculate LI for starters as well? I only ask because it would seem to me that any starter that threw a complete game should recieve an LI boost for his 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, assuming it was close of course. If not I fear that relievers,a nd especially starters who did a decent amount of relieving like Pierce and Quinn will be overrated.

42. Jim Sp Posted: August 02, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2123417)

Good pitchers not in Joe's tables (not that any of them will make a ballot):

Passeau
Sain (war credit? great 1946-8, rookie 1942. did he lose 3 years to the war or was part in the minors?)
Rucker
Antonelli
Breitenstein
Sam McDowell
Garcia
Rowe
Hahn
Joe Bush
Lary
Stottlemyre
Maloney
Osteen
Lopat
Roe
Ehmke
Breechen
Cuppy
Haddix

43. Joe Dimino Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#2123823)

No jschmeagol, I don't calculate a leverage index for starters.

I was under the impression that starter LI's are around 1.0 anyway . . . they throw many 3rd innings of blowouts too, etc..

If it could be shown that pitchers with a higher CG% have a higher (or lower, you never know) LI index on average, that could definitely be adjusted for. I'd need to see the evidence though.

44. Joe Dimino Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:16 PM (#2123829)

"I don't calculate a leverage index for starters."

Just to clarify - I don't calculate LI for starter IP. For pitchers that are typically starters, I do calculate LI for their relief innings. Just in case that wasn't obvious.

45. Joe Dimino Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:19 PM (#2123836)

Jim Sp - I'm going through the old election results now and adding anyone that ever received a vote - guys like Gus Weyhing, Noodles Hahn, Nig Cuppy, Jack Powell, etc.. I'm into the early 20s now.

I'm also adding in pitchers who appeared on the saves lists . . . guys like Doc Crandall, Hooks Wiltse, Red Ames. Basically going chronologically.

Eventually I'd like to get everyone who ever made a Stats, Inc. All-Time Sourcebook All-Star team - then I could come up with things like "My Cy Young Award" winners, greatest seasons of all-time lists, all-decade teams, etc..

46. Joe Dimino Posted: August 02, 2006 at 11:21 PM (#2123846)

Also . . . I'll add your pitchers to the list too! Thanks!

47. jimd Posted: August 03, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2124359)

I was under the impression that starter LI's are around 1.0 anyway

That may depend on how it's calculated/normalized.

Some teams may play an excess of blowouts either way. Overall Team LI < 1.0
Other teams may play an excess of late-and-close. Overall Team LI > 1.0

Individual starters might have a fair amount of variance in this regard, just like they do with their run support.
It may even correlate with their run support, with low run support resulting in a higher LI, and vice-versa.
Only a box-score line-score analysis would know for sure.

48. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 03, 2006 at 03:31 AM (#2124585)

I guess I just keep thinking that if you are not using LI for IP obtained while starting, you will be systematically overrating pitchers who threw a significant amount in relief. I am not sure if I am worried about the differences between starters so much as the affect on them as a whole. The differences between starters in LI can be highly dependent on how good a team's offense is and that starts to look like Win Expectancy, which I dont' like too much as I refuse to believe that a starter who threw a CG SHO and won by 6 runs gave his team less than the starter who pitched a CG SHO in a 1-0 vicotry. They are both CG SHO's.

However, If Jack Quinn, for instance, comes in in the 7th inning of a close game and pitches three shutout innings why should he get, say 1.6 LI credit for those innings when a starter who pitches those same innings (as well as the first 6) only gets 1.0 LI for those innings. Doesn't seem right to me.

It may not matter, like you say. But it is one of those things that I would like to know and one that would really help strengthen your charts, I presume.

49. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 03, 2006 at 03:35 AM (#2124590)

After reading my last post it occurred tome that I may have contrdicted myself.

Is it possible to figure out what the average LI of each inning is and reward starters that way? I can understand doing situations with relievers, managers choose their situations based on how good of a pitcher they are. Starters just start a game and keep going if they are pitching well (usually). So let's say we figure out that the average 7th innings has an LI of 1.15, the 8th 1.25 and the 9th 1.40, (whereas relivers may get say, 1.7 for a tough 9th inning) shouldnt' starters who pitch these innings get at lesat this benefit as well?

50. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 05:42 AM (#2124652)

Nap Rucker was pretty good. Wow. Good call Jim . . .

From 1909-1912 he rolled up 7.0, 6.5, 9.5, 9.5. If I'm counting correctly, only 12 pitchers listed up there have two 9.5 seasons, and I doubt they all did it back to back.

His aDRAs for those two years are 2.92 and 2.83, which are outstanding figures. Plus in 1911 he threw 43 relief innings at a 2.11 LI, and in 1912 he threw 30 at a 2.37 LI (he was 8-8 with 8 saves out of the bullpen those years in 26 appearances).

He ends up with a very Dizzy Dean-esque .669 PA, with a 3.49 career aDRA in 2136.3 tIP. Peak guys might want to take a look at him.

51. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 07:19 AM (#2124698)

Anyone know what happened to Joe Bush in 1919? There isn't a note in the MacMillan, and nothing at baseballlibrary.com either.

52. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:29 AM (#2124724)

Just as an addendum on Rucker, he has the 15th best 3 year consecutive peak I've found. The only non-HoMer ahead of him is Dean at #11. His peak fits nicely between Hubbell and Spahn. The top 25:

1. Walter Johnson
2. Ed Walsh
3. Sandy Koufax
4. Pete Alexander
5. Bob Feller
6. Lefty Grove
7. Robin Roberts
8. Christy Mathewson
9. Hal Newhouser
10. Bob Gibson
11. Dizzy Dean
12. Amos Rusie
13. Cy Young
14. Carl Hubbell
15. Nap Rucker
16. Warren Spahn
17. Juan Marichal
18. Bucky Walters
19. Joe McGinnity
20. Dazzy Vance
21. Red Faber
22. Wes Ferrell
23. Stan Coveleski
24. Jim Bunning
25. Rube Waddell

53. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:33 AM (#2124726)

BTW, I'm not endorsing Rucker for the Hall of Merit, he has less career value than any one listed above, though he's not too far behind Dean and McGinnity there. I just thought it's wild that an incredible peak like that slipped through the cracks.

It's partially because he played in front of terrible defenses - so his ERA+ numbers aren't that guady. But man, it sure looks like he was a helluva pitcher from 1908-13.

54. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 11:46 AM (#2124735)

Actually, Radbourn and Clarkson would slot between Rucker and Spahn, I have the pre-1893 guys in the chart separately so the sort missed them. Whitney and Spalding would be tied with Kid Nichols for the next 3 spots to round out a top 30.

55. Jim Sp Posted: August 03, 2006 at 03:42 PM (#2124965)

Rucker surprised me, but Passeau shocked me: 8.7, 11.3, 6.4, 6.7, 6.9, 7.6, 8. He's recent enough that you'd think Cub lore would make him more prominent. He barely got a mention on the 1953 ballot discussion.

Again, not an endorsement but he's someone who we could have talked about some more.

Passeau's greatest individual performance came in Game 3 of the 1945 World Series, in which he pitched a one-hitter against the Detroit Tigers. Slugger Rudy York got the Tigers' only hit, in the second inning, and the Cubs took a 2-games-to-1 edge. Back in Wrigley Field, the Cubs lost 3 of 4, and have not been back to the Series since as of the 2004 season. [cribbed from wikipedia]

The curse of Claude Passeau, anyone?

56. DL from MN Posted: August 03, 2006 at 04:25 PM (#2125037)

I'm mostly interested in where Mendez, Redding and Hilton Smith would slot in. Is there any way to get their translated numbers into this analysis?

57. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:10 PM (#2125836)

Good question DL.

The inputs are I use innings, runs allowed, the team defense adjustment, league runs allowed, park factor, league leader IP (to normalize innings), relief innings, Leverage index for relief innings (or an estimate), relief decisions, saves, league runs allowed.

For pitcher offense, I compare the pitcher's runs created to league average runs created for pitchers in that season.

As many of those inputs as I can get would help . . .

58. Joe Dimino Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:11 PM (#2125840)

I'll check out Passeau tonight Jim Sp.

59. Paul Wendt Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:28 PM (#2125867)

7 HOFers, 4 HOVG (Damon, Posada, Matsui, now Abreu) and a Knight! Good at baseball AND good as rescuing damsels in distress! How can they lose?

Only if the Red Sox win more games. If the Tigers, White Sox, and Twins all finish at .600, no matter.

sunnyday2 #22
Yeah, as for the '00s Cubs: By analogy take the Tigers of '84 and '06.

Ah, the '06 Tigers. Barrett was cooked, Cobb wasn't yet Cobb, Davy Jones was Davy Jones.

--
Joe Dimino on 1918-1919
Ah Mike - the short-season aspect has been credited for everyone - tIP is based off the league leaders (up to the top 12, depending on the number of teams in the league) in IP for any season. So season length is automatically taken into account.

All of the players above (except Murphy) are being given credit for actual military service. Murphy took a war-industry job, so I counted him too.

Joe, you probably know, this should be stated in a note or a subtitle in the next edition.

--
rawagman
un-overcomable (new word!)

The actual word is "insurmountable"

To know Hebrew and Latin is to know English?

Daryn
Quinn was one of the ten oldest players in the league for 15 years. That's pretty amazing.

Yeah, nowadays we think Julio Franco is pretty amazing.
(Franco has broken some Quinn records recently, I believe.)

--
Joe Dimino on Joe Dimino #43-44
"I don't calculate a leverage index for starters."

Just to clarify - I don't calculate LI for starter IP. For pitchers that are typically starters, I do calculate LI for their relief innings. Just in case that wasn't obvious.

Starting pitcher innings have leverage less than 1 on average. Jim Devlin 1877 is precisely 1.0, eh?

60. Paul Wendt Posted: August 03, 2006 at 10:30 PM (#2125871)

Jim Sp #42
Good pitchers not in Joe's tables (not that any of them will make a ballot)
[list deleted]

Devlin

61. Jim Sp Posted: August 04, 2006 at 12:40 AM (#2126147)

By the way, if you like Rucker you're going to love Wilbur Wood. In fact, if you voted for Koufax and you believe in BP's adjustment for defenses, you're going to have to twist yourself in knots to not vote for Wilbur Wood.

62. Joe Dimino Posted: August 04, 2006 at 01:58 AM (#2126429)

Paul - Devlin does quite well. 9.3 in 1876 is tied with Clarkson's 1887 as the 6th best pre-1893 season. His 1877 scores at 6.9 too, which is a very good year, a smidge better than Whitey Ford or Eddie Plank's best year.

63. Joe Dimino Posted: August 04, 2006 at 07:06 AM (#2126633)

Finally got Passeau Jim . . .

No Nap Rucker (in terms of peak), but very nice career. I get his best year as 1940, 8.3, with a 6.6 in 1939.

Talk about playing in front of some terrible defenses, wow! His career adjustment is -.18, which is very high.

His career PA winds up at .674, which puts him with Derringer, Root, Simmons, and Rucker, though he pitched much fewer innings than the first 3, and much fewer than Rucker. He's basically Hippo Vaughn with two extra years, a very nice career indeed.

64. Joe Dimino Posted: August 04, 2006 at 09:01 AM (#2126647)

Anyone know what Spud Chandler was doing from, oh, I don't know, 1930 or so until 1937?

65. Joe Dimino Posted: August 05, 2006 at 09:26 AM (#2128312)

Did we ever come up with MLEs for Sal Maglie from 1946-49?

Between war credit (he worked a defense job from 1942-45, after being selected in the 1941 Rule 5 Draft) and Mexican League credit he might have a Gavy Cravathish type of case . . .

66. Joe Dimino Posted: August 11, 2006 at 04:10 AM (#2136708)

Bump . . . anything on Chandler or more importantly Maglie? We've got to have some Mexican League numbers or something, right? Can't find it though.

67. Mike Webber Posted: August 11, 2006 at 04:42 AM (#2136809)

Joe, on Maglie. I believe he had a losing record in the minors, and didn't pitch in OB from 42-44 as much due a lack of effectiveness as the War. He goes back to Jersey City in 1945 after pitching in an industrial league - if you think MLB was thin imagine the minors!, and gets called up despite a losing record. After joining thr Giants Dolf Luque teaches him "the curve" and his career changes.

I don't think Cravath is the comparison, Bob Tesksbury maybe, or Dutch (the knuckler) Leonard, a guy that duddenly figures something out at an advanced age.

Does anyone happen to have an old register handy that shows Maglie's minor league numbers?

68. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: August 11, 2006 at 12:46 PM (#2136995)

I think maglie's #s are on his thread. The entry in the Neyer/James ptichers book on Maglie supports what Mike W is saying. That Maglie learned a pitch or a style of pitching somewhere in the vicinity of 1945ish that brought him to his high level of effectiveness. I don't remember the person or the pitch/style now, however, and I don't have the book with me at this moment.

69. Rob_Wood Posted: August 13, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2138585)

Here's what the Wikipedia says about Spud Chandler prior to his major league debut.

"Chandler attended the University of Georgia, near his birthplace and hometown of Commerce, Georgia, and played football as a halfback, throwing a touchdown pass to help defeat Yale in a 1929 game dedicating a new stadium; he also pitched for the baseball team and competed on the track team. After graduating with a degree in agriculture, he spent five seasons in the Yankees organization after signing with the team, his favorite since boyhood. He finally made his major league debut at age 29 on May 6, 1937."

70. Paul Wendt Posted: August 13, 2006 at 01:45 AM (#2138662)

The Neyer/James Guide credits this to Jack Lang, published in Bobby Thomson, et al., The Giants Win the Pennant! (1991). I suppose the presentation means Thomson quotes Lang.

"Dolf Luque taught Maglie the art of using the curveball. Dolf showed Sal how to work inside and outside, and not be afraid to push people back with it. That came natural to Sal. He was a nothing pitcher until he went to Mexico. And when he came back he quickly became dominant. To Sal's credit, he never hesitated to tell people that Luque was the one who turned his career around."

71. Paul Wendt Posted: August 13, 2006 at 01:55 AM (#2138679)

Joe Dimino #62
Devlin does quite well. 9.3 in 1876 is tied with Clarkson's 1887 as the 6th best pre-1893 season. His 1877 scores at 6.9 too, which is a very good year, a smidge better than Whitey Ford or Eddie Plank's best year.

Thanks!
That is impressive under the circumstances. Of course, we can't give him -1.0 for each game he was trying to lose.

JimSp #55
Rucker surprised me, but Passeau shocked me: 8.7, 11.3, 6.4, 6.7, 6.9, 7.6, 8. He's recent enough that you'd think Cub lore would make him more prominent. He barely got a mention on the 1953 ballot discussion.

Again, not an endorsement but he's someone who we could have talked about some more.

I have heard or read that Nap Rucker was one of the great pitchers but I have never heard or read anything said of Claude Passeau. In my time, no one has bothered. (Camilio Pascual, yes, a few things.)

72. Joe Dimino Posted: August 16, 2006 at 02:44 AM (#2142575)

Thanks guys . . . so I'm thinking no credit for Spud and I'll check Maglie's thread for numbers from Mexico, but nothing prior to 1945 for him, just a late bloomer.

Another question - what about Toothpick Sam Jones (the one from the 1950s). He pitched in the Negro Leagues in the late 40s. Signed with Cleveland in 1950, but never got a chance, because they were loaded. He finally sticks after being traded to the Cubs in 1955 at age 29.

I'm thinking nothing. I mean you'd think if Cleveland had him for 5 years and never used him, that's plenty of time to audition or trade him for a spare part if anyone else wanted him. It's not like he was a stud once he got to the Cubs or anything either.

But I'll listen if anyone thinks otherwise. Was he lighting up the minors?

73. Joe Dimino Posted: August 16, 2006 at 06:34 AM (#2142695)

Another question on Harvey Haddix. According to Baseball Library, he was a stud in the AA (not AA, the American Association). Then he went to the military in 1951 and "only pitched briefly in 1952".

Was that because he was still in the military, or because he went back to AAA? If he was back in the minors, does anyone have stats? He doesn't turn up with a decision (from the retrosheet daily team log) until the 119th game of the 1952 season (August 20).

Considering his age (would have been 25 for 1951) and his early career effectiveness, I'm inclined to give credit for 1951 and the missing portion of 1952 at a quality level a little below his 1952 level, with his 1950 IP total from the minors (but no more than 250 IP). If anyone could help me with filling in the gaps, I'd appreciate it.

74. Joe Dimino Posted: August 16, 2006 at 07:38 AM (#2142707)

For now I gave Harvey, 112 tIP at league average for 1951, and I prorated his 1952 (4.17 aDRA) to 185 tIP, from 44.7.

It bumps him from .497 to .537 PA, which I think is pretty reasonable. Especially considering what he did in 1953.

75. KJOK Posted: August 16, 2006 at 07:59 PM (#2143343)

Haddix last stint in the minors was in 1950:

Harve Haddix, Pitching 1950, Columbus, American Association:

G-30
GS-27
W-18
L-6
ERA-2.70
IP-217
H-192
BB-59
R-76
ER-65

76. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 12:46 AM (#2143838)

Thanks KJOK - I'm definitely fine with what I gave Haddix then Kevin. It's pretty obvious he would have been called up in 1951 had he not been in the military, considering once he got out in 1952 he reported directly to St. Louis. If anything, I think I'm being pretty conservative.

Doesn't make him a HoMer, but it moves him up the chart a bit. He was definitely more than a 1-hit wonder (pun intended).

77. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 04:40 AM (#2144189)

Here's another one - anyone know what happened to Bill Henry during 1956-57? He was pretty good from 1952-55, then he vanished, returning in 1958 with the Cubs.

Baseball-reference's transaction history says he went from Boston to Chicago in an 'unknown transaction' prior to the 1957 season. MacMillan has no reference to military service or injury, and neither does baseball-library. Just want to double check and make sure it's nothing I should care about, in the interest of completeness.

78. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 05:02 AM (#2144213)

Ah, Henry wasn't as good as his ERA+ pre-1958, so it's much more plausible that he just went back to the minors for 2 years to figure it out than I realized.

79. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 05:08 AM (#2144217)

He's also a great example of why ERA+ has a lot of issues with short inning relievers. Take that 417 ERA+ in 52 innings from 1964.

He allowed, 5.7 more inherited runners than average to score that year. His relievers bailed him out of 2.7 more runs when he left mid-inning. Roll it all in, and the much more believable 3.59 runs allowed per 9 innings (in a 4.50 = average environment).

His 1966 is even more wild. 6.5 more inherited runners than average and his relievers bailed him out of 7.2 runs. That's all in 22 innings (35 appearances - the first LOOGY?).

So his 150 ERA+ season actually works out to below replacement level for me. Pretty wild.

80. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 11:40 AM (#2144272)

I'm jumping ahead here, but John Hiller's 1973 is freaking amazing.

I don't know how it will be possible for any reliever to have a better season. Hell, it's better than Koufax's 1966 (the greatest non Walter Johnson season of anyone eligible) when you take leverage into account.

First the basics, 125.3 IP, 21 runs allowed.

That's really good, even in the 1973 AL.

But then we find that its Leverage Index is 1.72. So that makes it an equivalent of 207 IP at that rate.

Now we start adjusting. He prevented 15.6 more inherited runners from scoring than an average reliever. So we're down to 5.4 RA. His relievers then cost him 7/10 of a run. That's correct, he essentially allowed 4.7 runs in 125 innings.

His defense was very slightly above average. Oh yeah, he did this in a hitter's park, the park factor, after accounting for only playing 1/2 his games at home and not facing his own hitters is 107. He gets a demerit because the 1973 AL was terrible pitching wise, you've got the 1969 expansion and the fact the NL was much better, that adds .14 to his eventual aDRA. That's 2/5 of his final aDRA total.

So the final numbers, 207 translated innings, with a 0.47 aDRA (in a 4.50 R/G environment). That works out to 12.1 WAR.

Career wise he's not going to get there. But that season was one of the most valuable of any pitcher in the history of baseball. That has to be a major reason why the Tigers were 8 wins over their Pytagorean record that year.

81. Joe Dimino Posted: August 17, 2006 at 12:09 PM (#2144281)

Career wise I get Hiller between McDaniel and Face.

But peak wise, he's right there. It's a weird peak. His top year laps the field. His #2 and #3 years are nothing special but his #4 and #5 years are also very good for a reliever. He'll be an interesting one for the peak guys.

82. Paul Wendt Posted: August 17, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2145071)

83. Cblau Posted: August 18, 2006 at 01:34 AM (#2145234)

Joe,
Yes, Henry was in the minors in 1956 and 1957; part of 1958 as well. Had a 5-6 record in 1956 in the PCL with a 4.73 ERA. Then spent '57 in the Southern Assn. 14-6, 3.39 ERA. 5-3, 3.60 back in the PCL in 1958. Couldn't find anything on the 1957 transaction, though.

84. Mike Emeigh

Posted: August 18, 2006 at 02:07 AM (#2145254)

Got something useful out of the Newspaper Archive:

Henry was traded by San Francisco to Los Angeles (at that time a Cubs' farm team, although the affiliation was soon to be "traded" to Walter O'Malley) for 1B/OF Frank Kellert and cash in January 1957 (source: Pasadena Star-News). Henry had been outrighted by the Red Sox to the Seals in 1956.

-- MWE

85. Joe Dimino Posted: August 18, 2006 at 06:46 AM (#2145356)

Thanks guys!

Definitely thinking nothing to credit outside of MLB for Henry. He was in the minors, and not due to circumstances similar to Gavy Cravath or Jack Quinn.

One thing that's blown me away doing this is how many of these pitchers served in the military from 1951-56.

86. Howie Menckel Posted: August 18, 2006 at 12:44 PM (#2145408)

Post 78:
"Ah, Henry..." should be "Oh, Henry...."

87. Mike Emeigh

Posted: August 18, 2006 at 01:28 PM (#2145423)

My guess from a quick glance is that a lot of those "unknown transactions" in Retrosheet are minor league deals, and that the majority of them were in the PCL.

When Walter O'Malley traded affiliations with the Cubs, a month after Henry was acquired by LA, Henry was one of the players who was transferred to the new Cubs' affiliate in Portland. He was not - at that time - "owned" by the Cubs, as far as I can tell, but it is likely that the Cubs had "first dibs" on him, so to speak.

-- MWE

88. sunnyday2 Posted: August 19, 2006 at 01:29 AM (#2146949)

My best friend's dad pitched in the Cubs organization before and after WWII, as high as AAA. He always felt that the war kept him out of the bigs. After the war, he just wasn't as good and was released in 1948 I think. Anyway, Claude Passeau was his idol, and he named his son Claude (to the son's, my friend's, everlasting regret). Apparently Passeau was a real gentleman as well as a fine pitcher for awhile.

89. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 04:57 AM (#2154875)

Tex Hughson . . . everything I've found online says he was only in the military in 1945, but I believe he left in August of 1944. All of the online references refer to him leading the league in winning percentage in 1944, however, nothing says, "but the season was cut short due to injury . . . " or anything like that.

In retrosheet, he disappears from the game log after August 9, after 104 games. He had a decision or save in every game he pitched that year, so that was definitely his last appearance.

So I'm going to prorate his 1944 and give him credit for 1945. I'll prorate based on 106 games, since that's halfway between his last start and his probable next one 8/13 when they played a doubleheader.

If anyone knows for sure that he was injured or in the military, I'd love to hear about it . . .

90. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 05:00 AM (#2154882)

By the way, it doesn't seem like much, but giving that extra 1944-45 credit bumps him from the Gary Nolan/Joe Horlen level to the Mort Cooper, Noodles Hahn, Ed Ruelbach level, which is about 25 spots up the list.

91. Rob_Wood Posted: August 24, 2006 at 05:33 AM (#2154922)

Yes, Tex Hughson was "claimed" by the Navy in early-mid August 1944 accoring to a September 11, 1944 Sport Magazine article
about the AL pennant race. By the way, Bobby Doerr, who was having a great year, reported to the Army on Labor Day. The Red Sox
faded in September 1944 and the lowly Browns went on to win the pennant.

92. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 05:35 AM (#2154923)

Anyone know if Max Lanier pitched anywhere while he was suspended from 1946-49? If we can't find stats, I'll estimate them, but it'd be nice to know how (and how much) he was pitching if he actually was pitching at that time.

93. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 05:36 AM (#2154926)

Thanks Rob!

94. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 06:39 AM (#2154942)

Here's another - Jake Weimer - anyone know what he was doing before 1903? 29-year olds don't usually just show up out of nowhere and finish 3rd in the league in ERA . . .

95. OCF Posted: August 24, 2006 at 07:10 AM (#2154950)

29-year olds don't usually just show up out of nowhere and finish 3rd in the league in ERA . . .

http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hughedi01.shtml

OK, he was 7th in the league (10-team league), not 3rd, but I'll take his case anyway. (And that one year was his career, just about.)

96. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 09:26 AM (#2154967)

Found a stud from the 1880s that I'd never heard of before - Charlie Ferguson. He was kind of like Caruthers - 122 OPS+ and 121 ERA+ from 1884-87. And unlike most of the great pitchers from that time, he didn't have a great defense behind him - that ERA+ legitimately shows his effectiveness.

Typhoid Fever killed him in the spring of 1888, he had just turned 25. I get his rates for 1886-87 at 3.10 and 3.13. By comparison, Clarkson's 1887 gets a 3.10 and his 1889 gets a 3.04.

He wasn't throwing tons of innings, but that's partially because he was playing in the field and hitting the snot out of the ball. He was a truly outstanding player . . . am I the only one that had him slip under the radar?

97. Joe Dimino Posted: August 24, 2006 at 09:26 AM (#2154968)

LOL OCF - I said 'usually' not 'never'!

:-)

98. Eric Chalek (Dr. Chaleeko) Posted: August 24, 2006 at 01:40 PM (#2155061)

Clay Davenport listed Ferguson among his WARP HOFers in a since abandoned series of articles from earlier this year. He was pretty good, huh? Lanier pitched in Mexico in 1946 and 1947 to excellent effect. Joe, I think I posted some of his numbers in the NgL pitchers thread or some such where I compared his and Maglie's numbers between the US and MxL.

Ah, wait, I've just found this in my files, you lucky ducky!

NAME         year tm  AGE INN     H BB   K ER  ERA H/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB RAWERA+
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
lanier, max  1946 ver  30 107    86 29  84 23 1.93 7.2  2.4 7.1  3.0   204
             1947 ver  31  46.3  34  8  22  6 1.17 6.6  1.6 4.3  2.8   338
============================================================================
TOTAL                     153.3    120 37 106 29 1.70 7.0  2.2 6.2  2.9   232 

Verazcruz's ERA was 3.92 in 1946 and 4.12 in 1947, but I don't have their RS, so I can't draw much comparison between the park and the league. Also, before you jump to too much of a conclusion about the quality of MxL play, here's Lanier's ERA+s from 1943-1945: 176 (213 innings), 134 (224 innings), 217 (26 innings) from ages 27-30. He was a very excellent pitcher during the war. In 1946 before going to Mexico, he posted a 179 in 56 innings. After the southern sojourn, he went 109, 138, 121 in 92, 181, 160 innings, age 33-35. He seems to have had a soft arm.

And since you may be interested...

Here's how his totals compared to the MLB numbers he'd put up in 1943-1945 and to those he put up after his return, 1949-1951. Read it OPS+ style, as if the MxL stuff is the player and the MLB stuff is the league.

NAME          ERA H/9 BB/9 K/9 K/BB
-----------------------------------
vs 1943-1945  133 113  138 114  158
vs 1949-1951  196 122  146 162  237 

I'm not advocating for him, but I'm very interested in him and Maglie because of how they may ormay not reflect the QoP of Mexico in my continuing quest for a more accurate assessment of 1940s Mexican discount numbers.

99. sunnyday2 Posted: August 24, 2006 at 02:01 PM (#2155082)

There was an article about Ferguson somewhere in the past few years--BRJ? Anyway, his illness and death were a sensation at the time, a la Rudolf Valentino or John Lennon.

100. andrew siegel Posted: August 24, 2006 at 02:05 PM (#2155093)

I remember early in the project, someone posted a poll from the 1890s of the greatest player of all-time and Ferguson got a few votes. That was the first I heard of him.

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