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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Wednesday, September 18, 2002

Pitchers for the Hall of Merit

Let’s start discussing the pitchers here. I don’t have any adjusted numbers to post yet, but there’s no reason we can get the discussion cranking.

I take that back. I went through season by season a ways back and came up with pythagorean W-L records for each pitcher, based on his ERA vs. park adjusted league (season by season), adjusting for an average number of decisions in each season (based on the pitcher’s career IP/dec ratio for his career). Those numbers will be in the extended text.



John Clarkson 327-178 (361 Fibonacci wins)
Tim Keefe 351-215 (353)
Old Hoss Radbourn 304-200 (288)
Amos Rusie 261-158 (267)
Al Spalding 216-107 (254)
Tony Mullane 293-211 (252) .464 as a hitter too.
Pud Galvin 362-306 (252)
Jim McCormick 279-200 (241)
Mickey Welch 294-226 (234)
Will White 238-157 (225)
Sliver King 217-139 (212)
Jack Stivetts 202-134 (190)
Bob Caruthers 193-124 (186) .668 as a hitter.
Charlie Buffinton 220-178 (179)
Larry Corcoran 166-100 (170)
Guy Hecker 187-132 (164) .562 as a hitter.
Tommy Bond 220-178 (164)
Sadie McMahon 177-123 (158)
Candy Cummings 150-89 (156)
Bill Hutchinson 195-152 (153)
Ed Morris 171-122 (149)
Monte Ward 158-108 (144) .594 as a hitter.
Jim Whitney 210-185 (136) .548 as a hitter.
Dave Foutz 131-82 (130) .542 as a hitter.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: September 18, 2002 at 05:16 PM | 571 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   201. Kelly in SD Posted: August 08, 2004 at 09:08 PM (#785051)
Joe McGinnity

Teams: BalN 1899, BroN 1900, BalA 1901-02, NYN 1902-08.
Record: 246-142 2.66 era/3.76 runsallowed, K/W 1.32, WH9IP=10.69
Win Shares: Career 269; 3 yrs cons 105; 7 best yrs 221; per 40 starts 25. Seasons with 20+: 8. Seasons with 30+: 4. Seasons with 40+: 2.
AllStars: STATS 5, WS 6
Fibonacci WinPoints: 260
ERA+: 121
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 64/190
Bill James Rank: 41
Top 10s: Wins and IP 8 times with 5 firsts in W and 4 in IP. BB/9 7 times. W% 6 times with 2 firsts. ERA and aERA+ 5 times with 1 first. BBH/9IP 4 times.
Other Info: You can identify almost to the game when McGraw thought McGinnity lost it. Aug 20, 1907. In the first 105 games, he started 26 times. In the last 48, he started only 7 times and just 2 times against teams over .500. In 1908, he started 20 games, just 2 against .500+ teams and 18 against under .500 teams.
Other Breakdowns:
Against HoMers:
Young     2-5
Nichols   3-4
Plank     2-0
Brown     1-3 
total:    8-9
For comparison's sake:
Griffith   0-2
Chesbro    1-1
Willis    10-2 [I found one more than when I figured Willis]
Tannehill  3-0
Phillippe  7-4
Leever     5-8
Hahn       2-4
Ruelbach   2-3
Overall    3-0
Taylor     7-3     

Records by opponent position
 
finish   McGinnity
1st      11-22
         .333
2nd      22-14
         .611
3rd      31-21
         .596
4th      26-15
         .634
5th      34-17
         .667
6th      38-17
         .691
7th      33-15
         .688
8th      31-14
         .689
9th-12th 13-1
         .929  

Records against over/under .500 teams
 
Record   McGinnity
.500+    106-78
         .576
.500-    133-58
         .696      

% of career dec'n vs. .500+teams
.491
   202. Kelly in SD Posted: August 08, 2004 at 09:26 PM (#785080)
Vic Willis:
Teams: Bos 1898-1905, Pit 1906-09, StLN 1910.
Record: 249-205 2.63 era/3.67 runsallowed, K/W 1.36, WH9IP=10.88
Win Shares: Career 293; 3 yrs cons 84; 7 best yrs 199; per 40 starts 24. Seasons with 20+: 8. Seasons with 30+: 2.
AllStars: STATS 2, WS 4
Fibonacci WinPoints: 180
ERA+: 118
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 25/204
Bill James Rank: 84
Top 10s: Wins and Innings 9 times with 1 first in IP. SHo 9 times with 2 firsts. Ks 7 times. W%age 6 times. ERA and H/9IP 5 times with a first in each. aERA+ 5 times. Most walks 8 times.
Other/Unique: 67-19 against under .500 teams while with Pit while 29-27 against .500 or better. Lost final game of 1908 season against TF Brown, 5-2. If he won the Pirates would have finished 99-55, NY 98-55, Chi 97-56. That would put the make-up game in a totally different light. Lost Game 6 of 1909 WS. Agreed to jump to the AL in 1901 but changed mind. Agreed to jump to Detroit in 1902, but changed mind.
Teams he played for had losing records only in 1903, 04, 05, and 10.

Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers:
Young      0-1
Nichols    1-2
McGinnity  2-9
Mathewson  7-3
Brown      3-4
total:    13-19
Also: 
Griffith   1-2 

Against other STATS AllStars from 98-10: 10-15
Record depending on opponent's finish: <pre>
finish   Willis
1st      20-34
         .370
2nd      22-24
         .478
3rd      26-27
         .491
4th      31-27
         .535
5th      32-28
         .533
6th      36-26
         .563
7th      32-12
         .727
8th      39-22
         .639
9-12     20-8
         .714

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record  Willis
.500+   111-125
         .470
.500-   147-84
         .636

% of career dec'n vs. .500+teams
.505
   203. Kelly in SD Posted: August 08, 2004 at 09:40 PM (#785102)
I forgot to include Chris J.'s Run Support Index and Defensive Win Shares Support information for Walsh, Joss, Willis, and McGinnity.
Run Support Index:
McGinnity 106.94
Walsh 98.37
Joss 97.42
Willis 100.13
Range: 133 to 80 with 3 over 116 and 3 below 85.

Defensive WinShare Support:
McGinnity +14
Walsh +11.3
Joss +5.3
Willis +8.8
Range: Basically +20 to -10 with 2 pitchers over +19.5 and 3 with less than -10.

Over/UnderAchievement for Career:
McGinnity +8 wins
Walsh -8 wins
Joss +4 wins
Willis -10 wins
For reference, the range is from +15 to -18 wins
   204. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: August 08, 2004 at 10:21 PM (#785141)
FOR BASEBALL PROSPECTUS PLAYER CARDS:

To access O' players (O'Neill, O'Rourke), you have to spell it O=Neill, using the equal sign.
   205. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: August 09, 2004 at 12:48 AM (#785290)
To access O' players (O'Neill, O'Rourke), you have to spell it O=Neill, using the equal sign.

Mr. Spock would not consider this logical.
   206. andrew siegel Posted: August 09, 2004 at 08:12 PM (#786500)
Here's a nifty little list I calculated to help me compare pitchers across eras. The numbers that follow are the avergage number of pitching win shares for the third best starting pitcher in baseball over the last three years (small print: AA, UA, and FL not considered; used average of 3rd place in NL and 3rd place in PL for 1890 season; converted strike seasons to 162 games but otherwise did not scale to season):

1876: 48
1877: 38
1878: 35
1879: 33
1870's: 33 to 48
_________________
1880: 38
1881: 40
1882: 37
1883: 37
1884: 44
1885: 46
1886: 45
1887: 38
1888: 36
1889: 33
1880's: 33 to 46
____________________

1890: 34
1891: 36
1892: 40
1893: 40
1894: 40
1895: 38
1896: 36
1897: 33
1898: 32
1899: 32
1890s: 32 to 40
pre-1894 data only: 34 to 40
post-1894 data only 32 to 36
___________________________

1900: 30
1901: 29
1902: 27
1903: 32
1904: 33
1905: 33
1906: 31
1907: 29
1908: 31
1909: 31
1900s: 27 to 33
______________

1910: 33
1911: 32
1912: 35 (only post-1897 season over 33)
1913: 33
1913: 33
1914: 33
1915: 27
1916: 28
1917: 30
1918: 31
1919: 30
1910s: 27 to 35
______________
1920: 29
1921: 29
1922: 29
1923: 27
1924: 27
1925: 26
1926: 26
1927: 26
1928: 27
1929: 27
1920s: 26 to 29
______________

1930: 27
1931: 26
1932: 28
1933: 28
1934: 29
1935: 29
1936: 30
1937: 28
1938: 27
1939: 26
1930s: 26 to 30
_____________

1940: 26
1941: 27
1942: 26
1943: 25
1944: 26
1945: 26
1946: 27
1947: 26
1948: 27
1949: 27
1940s: 25 to 27
____________

1950: 27
1951: 26
1952: 26
1953: 25
1954: 25
1955: 24
1956: 24
1957: 23
1958: 23
1959: 22
1950s: 22 to 27
___________

1960: 23
1961: 23
1962: 23
1963: 24
1964: 25
1965: 26
1966: 27
1967: 27
1968: 27
1969: 27
1960s: 23 to 27
________
1970: 28
1971: 29
1972: 29
1973: 30 (post-1920 high)
1974: 29
1975: 28
1976: 28
1977: 27
1978: 27
1979: 26
1970s: 26 to 30
_____________
1980: 25
1981: 24
1982: 25
1983: 25
1984: 24
1985: 24
1986: 24
1987: 24
1988: 24
1989: 23
1980s: 23 to 25
___________
1990: 22
1991: 21 (all-time low)
1992: 22
1993: 23
1994: 25
1995: 25
1996: 25
1997: 24
1998: 25
1999: 25
1990's: 21 to 25
___________
2000: 24
2001: 23
2002: 23
2003: 23
200o's: 23 to 24

1
   207. Kelly in SD Posted: August 09, 2004 at 08:22 PM (#786510)
Rube Waddell:
Teams: Lou 1897, 1899, Pit 1900-01, ChiN 1901, PhiA 1902-07, StLA 1908-10.
Record: 193-143 2.16 era/3.23 runsallowed, K/W 2.88, WH9IP=9.92
Win Shares: Career 240; 3 yrs cons 94; 7 best yrs 186; per 40 starts 25. Seasons with 20+: 6. Seasons with 30+: 3.
AllStars: STATS 3, WS 4
Fibonacci WinPoints: 161
ERA+: 134
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 46/158
Bill James Rank: 53
Top 10s: Ks and K/9IP 10 times with 6 first in Ks and 8 in K/9IP. SHo 9 times. H/9IP 8 times with 2 firsts. aERA+ 7 times with 3 firsts. ERA and BBH/9IP 6 times each with ERA 2 firsts. Wins 5 times.
Other/Unique: Usage Pattern almost every year, usually b/c he jumped the team or was suspended: 1901 last start on 8/28. 1902 - played for LA in PCL and didn't start for Phi until 6/26 and had his last start on 9/22, he had 27 starts and 6 relief appearances in 81 games. No starts after game 131. 1903 - 38 starts in game 106, none after. 1905 - didn't start until game 15 and between games 120 and 148. 1906 - only one start in a month between 5/21 - 6/19.

Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers:
Young      8-5
McGinnity  0-0 with a tie
Mathewson  1-1
Plank      1-3
Walsh      3-6
Johnson    2-0
total:    15-15
Also: 
Griffith   4-4 
Joss       7-2
Cicotte    0-1  

Record depending on opponent's finish:
finish   Waddell
1st      12-25
         .324
2nd      12-20
         .375
3rd      34-21
         .618
4th      23-18
         .561
5th      18-25
         .419
6th      24-13
         .649
7th      30-14
         .682
8th      35-10
         .778
9-12      1-0
        1.000  

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record  Waddell
.500+    88-93
         .486
.500-   101-54
         .649   

% of career dec'n vs. .500+teams
.537
   208. Kelly in SD Posted: August 10, 2004 at 06:49 AM (#787472)
Mordecai Peter Centennial "Three Finger" "Miner" Brown:
Teams: StLN 1903, ChiN 1904-12, Cin 1913, StLF 1914, BroTTF 1914, ChiF 1915, ChiN 1916.
Record: 239-129 (130) 2.06 era/2.96 runsallowed, K/W 2.04, WH9IP=9.59
Win Shares: Career 296; 3 yrs cons 99; 7 best yrs 208; per 40 starts 28. Seasons with 20+: 9. Seasons with 30+: 3.
AllStars: STATS 5, WS 5
Fibonacci WinPoints: 265
ERA+: 138
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 35/195
Bill James Rank: 20
Top 10s: ERA, aERA+, BBH/9IP 9 times each with 1 first in ERA and aERA+ and 3 firsts in BBH/9IP. Saves 9 times with 4 firsts. BB/9IP 8 times. Wins, W%, H/9IP, SHo 7 times each. IP, K/9 4 times.

Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers: 
Nichols     1-0
McGinnity   4-1
Mathewson  12-11
Alexander   2-1
total:     19-13
Also: 
Willis      4-3
Phillippe   1-1
Leever      1-1
Adams       1-2
Taylor, Ja  2-0
Marquard    2-0
Hahn        0-1
Ewing       3-0 

Should have done Lefty Leifield b/c they faced each other a lot.
Record depending on opponent's finish:
 
finish   Brown
1st      14-16
         .467
2nd      23-20
         .535
3rd      31-26
         .544
4th      41-15
         .732
5th      26-12
         .684
6th      34-9
         .791
7th      22-7
         .759
8th      26-9
         .743   

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record   Brown
.500+   114-80
         .588
.500-   103-34
         .752   

% of career dec'n vs. .500+teams
.586
   209. andrew siegel Posted: August 10, 2004 at 01:04 PM (#787534)
I've spent way too much time this week looking at the pitchers. Basically, I've done seven things:

(1) Looked in detail at the WARP PRAR numbers on a seasonal and career basis.

(2) Calculated a sort of grey ink score for pitchers using Win Shares and another using Baseball Encyclopedia numbers. (I'd do WARP but the lack of league pages makes it too much of a pain.)

(3) Used the win share benchmarks numbers I posted above to calculate number of excellent, near-excellent, and very good seasons.

(4) Made allowances for defensive and offensive support.

(5) Did a subjective doublecheck where I say, you are a manager and you know in advance what this guy's career is going to look like in general terms (i.e., pitching skills, personality, injury frequency, length of career, ability to pitch to the score, reliability, durability), whose career do you want? (Answer: Not Rube Waddell's.)

(6) Worked the Negro Leaguers into my list where they would be based on Chris's numbers.

(7) Evaluated whether I was comfortable with those numbers and significantly downgraded Foster based on a lack of fit between good ERA+ numbers and amazing WS.

I ended up with the following conclusions:

(1) Anyway we slice it, Griffith has been significantly overrated. In none of my systems did he rate at the top; in most of them, he barely cracked the top 10. He only had one season where he was within five pitching WS of my benchmark for an excellent season (average of third-best pitcher's WS over the previous 3 seasons).

(2) Willis is significantly underrated. He was at the top of this group (though by small margins) in just about every metric.

(3) Leaving Spalding aside, every eligible pitcher ranks a full level below every elected pitcher on just about every metric.

(4) The top ten or so eligible pitching candidates are tighly grouped, then there is a drop off to other guys with superficially similar stats.

(5) Due to the tightness of this pack, its size, and the fact that every eligible pitcher is noticeably worse than every elected HoMer, I think most of these guys belong between 15 and 302 on this ballot. (Willis sneaks onto my ballot in 14th place.)

As I now see the eligible pitchers:

(1) Willis (14th overall)
(2) Welch (17th overall)(moved up subjectively)
(3) Mendez (18th overall)
(4) Cooper (20th overall)
(5) Foster (21st-25th overall)(hitting credit)
(6) Griffith (21st-25th overall)
(7) Joss (25th-30th overall)(moved up)
(8) Vaughn (25-30th overall)
(9) Waddell (25t-30th overall) (moved down)
(10) McCormick (30th to 35th)
(11) Bond (35th to 40th)
   210. andrew siegel Posted: August 10, 2004 at 01:16 PM (#787541)
Oops. Forgot to include Cicotte on that list. He slips in between Griffith and Joss after being subjectively downgraded a touch for inconsistency, wasting a chance to win a title, and leaving his team in the lurch. The list, therefore, is now:

(1) Willis
(2) Welch
(3) Mendez
(4) Cooper
(5) Foster
(6) Griffith
(7) Cicotte
(8) Joss
(9) Vaughn
(10) Waddell
(11) McCormick
(12) Bond
   211. Paul Wendt Posted: August 11, 2004 at 06:21 PM (#790098)
Kelly #231
Records against over/under .500 teams
Record Brown
.500+ 114-80 .588
.500- 103-34 .752

% of career dec'n vs. .500+teams
.586


A fine record against strong opposition.

Do we need Opponent-Neutral pitcher records?
A few years ago concerning Lefty Grove and Wes Ferrell, Dick Thompson showed that there may be significant differences in the usage of pitchers, measured by the quality of opponents. If so, then it may be just as important to "neutralize" a pitcher record for opponent quality, as for defensive efficiency and run support.
   212. Chris Cobb Posted: August 11, 2004 at 07:23 PM (#790235)
Do we need Opponent-Neutral pitcher records?

It'd be a good thing, sure. The main thing we'd need to add would be an assessment of the quality of the opposition on offense. The quality of the opposing pitching and fielding is accounted for in the Run-Support Index, isn't it?

From what I've learned in recent discussions of park factors, I'd hazard a guess that ERA+ as published on baseball-reference does take the quality of opposition into account, as may DERA. Is that true? If so, we have some numbers that attempt to be opposition-neutral.
   213. jimd Posted: August 11, 2004 at 08:26 PM (#790349)
If so, we have some numbers that attempt to be opposition-neutral.

However, the way they take opponents into account is generic, not tailored to the individual. The same "opponent factor" is applied to Keefe as well as Welch in any given year, to the other Cubs pitchers as well as Brown. It works well for offense where one would expect that Tinker and Evers would have a similar "opponent factor" and it's probably the best one can do absent the newly available starting-pitcher logs. I know we can do better with this data.
   214. jimd Posted: August 11, 2004 at 08:37 PM (#790365)
However, the way they take opponents into account is <strike>generic</strike> at the team level, not tailored to the individual.
   215. Kelly in SD Posted: August 20, 2004 at 10:02 PM (#809716)
Jim McCormick:
Teams: IndN 1878, CleN 1879-1884, CinU 1884, ProN 1885, ChiN 1885-1886, Pit 1887.
Record: 265-214 2.43 era/ 4.41 runsallowed, league era 2.88, K/W 2.28, WH9IP=10.19
Win Shares: do not have the information with me
AllStars: do not have the info with me
Fibonacci WinPoints: 198
ERA+: 118
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 40/220
Bill James Rank: do not have the info with me
Top 10s: ERA, wins 9 times each with 2 firsts in each. BBH/9IP, H/9, K, K/9 8 times with 2 firsts in H/9 and one in baserunners. WL%, IP 7 times each with one first in WL% and two in IP.
Other/Unique: 1884 split season has a dramatic effect on some of his numbers. How much weight do you give to the Union Assoc? I give the numbers very little credit. I see it as a minor league that is not close to the quality of the NL or AA. Be that as it may... For example, his career WL of 265-214 .553 WL% drops to 244-211 .536. His K/W drops from 2.28 to 2.10. His Black Ink drops from 40 to 33 and he gets double credit in Grey/Black Ink for wins, walks per 9, strikeouts, and shutouts because he split the season. And 6 of his 7 shutouts were against the two of the three worst "full time" teams and he didn't pitch against the other one.
Team finish: 1878 5/6, 1879 6/8. 1880 3/8, 1881 7/8, 1882 5/8, 1883 4/8, 1884 7/8, 1884 UA 2/8 (near full-season teams), 1885 Pro 4 games 4/8, Chi 24 games 1/8, 1886 1/8, 1887 6/8.

Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers:
Monte Ward  8-13
Galvin     16-18
Radbourn    9-12
Keefe       8-3
Clarkson    1-1
total      42-47
others
Bond        6-12
Welch      20-18 

Record depending on opponent's finish:
finish   McCormick
1st      24-31
         .436
2nd      25-40
         .385
3rd      30-33
         .476
4th      33-30
         .524
5th      36-25
         .590
6th      26-22
         .542
7th      37-19
         .661
8th      43-16
         .729
9-12      7-1
         .875 

Records against over/under .500 teams
 
Record  McCormick
.500+   116-142
         .450
.500-   145-75
         .659  
   216. jonesy Posted: August 21, 2004 at 12:13 AM (#810001)
"From what I've learned in recent discussions of park factors, I'd hazard a guess that ERA+ as published on baseball-reference does take the quality of opposition into account, as may DERA. Is that true? If so, we have some numbers that attempt to be opposition-neutral."

I am under the impression that ERA+ factors in that a pitcher did not face his own team, but assumes that said pitcher works the same amount of innings against each other team in the league. It also assumes that home and away innings are egually dispersed.
   217. jimd Posted: August 21, 2004 at 12:30 AM (#810073)
Thanks, jonesy. That's what I meant by the following:

However, the way they take opponents into account is at the team level, not tailored to the individual.

It helps to be able to write clear sentences. Maybe someday I'll learn how :-)
   218. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 06:22 AM (#815563)
List of Win Shares All-Star pitchers. I followed STATS in determining the number of All-Stars each year. 1876-81 1, 1882-85 2, 1886-93 3, 1894-present 4. The last is different from STATS. 1894 seems to be the year pitchers were hit with the effect of the longer 60'6" distance. If you prefer the STATS version, drop the 4th place pitcher from 1894-97.
Part 1: NL, PL, AA 1876-1900
year 1st total 2nd total 3rd total 4th total
National League
1876 Spalding 57
1877 Devlin 60
1878 Bond 60
1879 Galvin 61
1880 McCormick 54
1881 Whitney 42
1882 Radbourn 50   McCormick 42
1883 Radbourn 60   Whitney 57
1884 Radbourn 89   Buffington 62
1885 Clarkson 62   Welch 57
1886 L Baldwin 53  Ferguson 49    Clarkson 42
1887 Clarkson 51   Keefe 39       Ferguson 36
1888 Buffington 44 Sanders 35     Keefe 35
1889 Clarkson 60   Buffington 33  Welch 31
1890 Hutchison 54  Gleason 45     Nichols 43 
1891 Hutchison 49  Clarkson 42    Nichols 39
1892 Stivetts 49   Nichols 48     Hutchison 45
1893 Killen 42     Rusie 41       Nichols 40
1894 Rusie 56      Meekin 48      Young 39     Nichols 37
1895 Hawley 44     Young 37       Hoffer 35    Tie Nichols/ Griffith 34
1896 Young 43      Cuppy 38       Nichols 33   Killen 32
1897 Nichols 41    Breitenstein 34 Rusie 31    Young 28
1898 Nichols 44    Young 34       Tannehill 34 Girffith 32
1899 Willis 39     Young 35       McGinnity 35 Hughes 33
1900 McGinnity 30  Dineen 27      Phillippe, Tannehill, Kennedy 23

American Association
1882 White 54      Mullane 36
1883 Keefe 70      Mullane 55
1884 Hecker 74     Keefe 47
1885 E Morris 56   Caruthers 51
1886 Foutz 62,     Caruthers 57   Ramsey 47
1887 E Smith 54    Caruthers 54   Kilroy 51
1888 King 71       Caruthers 46   Seward 42
1889 Caruthers 46  King 44        Chamberlain 42
1890 Stratton 51   Stivetts 41    McMahon 33
1891 Stivetts 46   McMahon 39     Weyring 37 

Players' League
 
1890 King 44       M.Baldwin 42   Radbourn 34  
   219. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 06:51 AM (#815578)
1901 - 1910 [Bedtime, more later]
1901 AL Young 41     Miller 30    McGinnity 27 Griffith 27
1901 NL Willis 33    Nichols 32   Orth 29      Tie Dineen/Donovan 27 
1902 AL Young 38     Waddell 33   Powell 31    Donahue 30
1902 NL Taylor 32    Hahn 29      Willis 29    White 27
1903 AL Young 38     Plank 28     Dineen 27    Waddell 27
1903 NL McGinnity 40 Mathewson 37 Leever 28    Phillippe 27  
1904 AL Chesbro 53   Young 35     Waddell 32   Tie Plank/ Powell 29
1904 NL McGinnity 42 Mathewson 34 Weimer 28    Tie Nichols / Taylor 28
1905 AL Wadell 35    Plank 31     Killian 29   Young 28
1905 NL Mathewon 39  Ruelbach 29  I Young 29   Phillippe 26
1906 AL Orth 36      Mullin 26    D White 25   Chesbro 25
1906 NL Brown 35     Willis 29    Weimer 27    Tie McGinnity/ Pfeister 24
1907 AL Walsh 37     Killian 29   Plank 29     Joss 28
1907 NL Overall 32   Mathewson 29 Brown 29     Ludgren 25
1908 AL Walsh 47     Joss 35      Young 27     Tie Rhoads / Howell 23
1908 NL Mathewson 39 Brown 34     McQuillian 33 Ruelbach 27
1909 AL F Smith 31   Mullin 28    Walsh 23     Tie Bender / Plank 22
1909 NL Brown 36     Mathewson 34 Overall 30   Camnitz 30
1910 AL Coombs 37    Johnson 36   Walsh 36     Ford 35
1910 NL Mathewson 30 Brown 29     Cole 25      Rucker 23
   220. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 07:37 PM (#816232)
1911 - 1920 AL then NL
American League
1911 Johnson 31 Walsh 31       Gregg 28       Ford 28
1912 Johnson 47 Wood 44        Walsh 40       Plank 25 
1913 Johnson 54 Russell 32     Cicotte 27     Scott 27
1914 Johnson 38 Leonard 29     Weilman 24     H Coveleski 23
1915 Johnson 42 Dauss 25       R Foster 25    H Coveleski, Caldwell 24
1916 Ruth 37    Johnson 36     H Coveleski 27 Shawkey 27
1917 Ruth 36    Cicotte 35     Bagby 34       Mays 30
1918 Johnson 38 S Perry 30     S Coveleski 29 Mays 25
(Ruth 40 but only pitched 166 innings)
1919 Cicotte 32 Johnson 27     S Coveleski 27 Tie Shawkey, Sothoron 24 
1920 Bagby 34   S Coveleski 32 Mays 27        Shawkey 27 

National League
1911 Alexander 34 Mathewson 32 Rucker 31    Marquard 26 
1912 Mathewson 31 Hendrix 29   Cheney 27    Marquard 26
1913 Mathewson 30 Seaton 29    Alexander 27 Marquard 26 
1914 James 36     Rudolph 29   Pfeffer, Tesreau, Alexander 26 
1915 Alexander 43 Pfeffer 26   E Mayer 24   Rudolph 24
1916 Alexander 44 Pfeffer 32   Vaughn 24    Rixey 24
1917 Alexander 40 Vaughn 24    Schupp 23    Cooper 22 
1918 Vaughn 28    Grimes 25    Tyler 24     Cooper 23 
1919 Vaughn 30    Adams 27     Alexander 26 Ruether 26
1920 Alexander 36 Grimes 32    Cooper 31    Adams 25 

Federal League
1914 Hendrix 37   Falkenberg 34 Quinn 32 Ford 29
1915 Davenport 34 Crandall 29   Plank 29 Tie Cullop McConnell 25
   221. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 08:03 PM (#816308)
Pitchers 1921-1930 Win Shares - AL then NL

American League
1921 Faber 37   Mays 35        Shocker 30   S Jones 29 
1922 Faber 31   Shocker 29     Rommel 27    Shawkey 27
1923 Uhle 29    Tie Dauss, Ehmke, Rommel, Shocker 25
1924 Johnson 29 Pennock 27     Ehmke 25     Bush 23
1925 Johnson 26 S Coveleski 23 Lyons 23     Pennock 23
1926 Uhle 32    Grove 25       Lyons 24     Tie Shocker, Zachary 19
1927 Lyons 30   T Thomas 27    Grove 24     W Moore 24
1928 Grove 27   T Thomas 26    Sewell 23    Gray 23 
1929 Grove 28   Marberry 26    Ferrell 25   Hudlin 25
1930 Grove 37   Ferrell 32     L Stewart 28 Lyons 26 


National League
1921 Grimes 29    Cooper 27    Luque 23   Tie Rixey, Alexander 22 
1922 Cooper 27    Rixey 23     Tie Pfeffer, Morrison, Nehf 21
1923 Luque 39     Alexander 27 Rixey 26   Morrison 23
1924 Vance 36     Cooper 24    Tie Grimes, Kremer, Rixey 21 
1925 Donahue 28   Luque 27     Rixey 26   J Scott 25
1926 Kremer 25    Petty 24     Carlson 23 Root 22
1927 Alexander 28 Haines 28    Vance 25   Lucas 23 
1928 Vance 32     Benton 30    Grimes 30  Tie S Blake, Sherdel 24 
1929 Lucas 26     Tie W Clark, Grimes, P Malone, Root 23
1930 Vance 26 P   Malone 24    Seibold 20 French 19 
   222. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 08:12 PM (#816335)
The National League after 1925 looks like it has the least pitching prime of any period yet. There were 16 different pitchers out of a possible 20 (22 including ties). Have to see what happens in the 1930s.
   223. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 08:49 PM (#816433)
1931-1940 Pitchers

American League
1931 Grove 42   Earnshaw 29 Ferrell 28 Walberg 24 
1932 Grove 33   Crowder 30  Ferrell 26 Ruffing 26 
1933 Harder 24  Grove 23    Hadley 23  Whitehill 23
1934 Gomez 31   Rowe 28     Harder 27  Bridges 22
1935 Ferrell 35 Grove 29    Harder 27  Rowe 23
1936 Grove 29   Ferrell 27  Bridges 26 J Allen 25 
1937 Gomez 29   Grove 27    Ruffing 24 Auker 22
1938 Ruffing 25 Feller 22   Newsom 21  Harder 20
1939 Feller 32  Grove 23    Newsom 23  Ruffing 22
1940 Feller 34  Newsom 26   Rigney 24  Auker 22 


National League
1931 Brandt 27   W Clark 22   Meine 22     3 tied at 21
1932 Warneke 31  Hubbell 25   D Dean 24    Lucas 23
1933 Hubbell 33  Brandt 29    Warneke 29   H Schumacher 23 
1934 D Dean 37   Hubbell 32   Warneke 26   Tie Schumacher, C Davis 24
1935 D Dean 31   Hubbell 26   C Blanton 24 Schumacher 23
1936 Hubbell 37  D Dean 31    Mungo 24     MacFayden 22
1937 J Turner 27 C Melton 25  Hubbell 23   Fette 23
1938 B Lee 28    Derringer 25 Bryant 23    Bauers 19
1939 Walters 38  Derringer 26 C Davis 22   Casey 21
1940 Walters 32  Passeau 28   Derringer 24 Higbe 21 
   224. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 09:26 PM (#816524)
1941-1950
American League
1941 T Lee 32     Feller 30    E Smith 20     A Benton 20
1942 Hughson 28   Lyons 21     Bonham 21      Tie Bagby Jr, Humphries 20
1943 Chandler 29  Trout 23     Bonham 20      Hughson 20
1944 Trout 42     Newhouser 35 Kramer 22      Tied 4 players at 20
1945 Newhouser 38 Potter 27    Tie Ferriss, Gromek, Wolff 24
1946 Newhouser 33 Feller 32    Trout 27       Tie Chandler, Hughson 25
1947 Newhouser 24 Feller 23    F Hutchison 22 Tied 2 with 21 
1948 Newhouser 27 Lemon 26     Bearden 22     Tie Dobson, Scheib 20
1949 Lemon 31     Parnell 31   Trucks 27      Newhouser 25 
1950 Garver 25    Houtteman 25 Lemon 25       Parnell 22


National League
1941 Wyatt 28     Walters 27   Riddle 26      E White 22
1942 M Cooper 29  Beazley 22   Starr 21       Vander Meer 21
1943 Cooper 28    N Andrews 25 Tobin 24 Tie Riddle, R Sewell 23 
1944 Walters 32   Tie Cooper, Sewell, Voiselle 24
1945 Wyse 24      R Barrett 22 Passeau 22 Tie Burkhart, Roe 20
1946 Pollet 27    Sain 26      Brecheen 20    Ostermueller 19
1947 Spahn 32     Blackwell 28 Branca 26      Sain 24 
1948 Sain 28      Brecheen 27  J Schmitz 22   Vander Meer 20
1949 Pollet 24    Spahn 24     Heintzelman 23 Newcombe 21
1950 Blackwell 26 Roberts 26   Jansen 25      Konstanty 23 
   225. Kelly in SD Posted: August 24, 2004 at 10:07 PM (#816594)
1951-1960 Pitchers
American League
1951 Wynn 24     Garcia 22   Garver 22   Parnell 22
1952 Shantz 33   Lemon 25    Reynolds 24 Tie Garcia, Pierce 23
1953 Pierce 24   Parnell 23  Lemon 22    McDermott 22
1954 Garcia 24   Gromek 24   Lemon 24    Wynn 24 
1955 Pierce 23   Ford 22 F   Sullivan 22 Wynn 21 
1956 Wynn 28     Score 25    Brewer 24   Lemon 23 
1957 Bunning 26  Sullivan 23 Tie D Donovan, Foytack, Pierce 18
1958 Harshman 22 Pierce 22   Lary 21     Tie Ford, O'Dell 20
1959 Pascual 24  Wilhelm 23  Wynn 23     B Shaw 22
1960 Bunning 20  Lary 19 R   Herbert 18  Tie 6 with 16


National League
1951 Roberts 28  Maglie 28    Spahn 26    Jansen 24
1952 Roberts 32  Rush 23      Spahn 22    Raffensberger 22
1953 Roberts 35  Spahn 31     Haddix 27   Erskine 20
1954 Roberts 31  Antonelli 28 Spahn 23    Simmons 21
1955 Roberts 27  Newcombe 25  Nuxhall 20  tie Friend, Spahn 19
1956 Newcombe 27 Antonelli 25 Spahn 24    tie Burdette, Friend 20
1957 Spahn 22    Drysdale 21  Lawrence 21 Sanford 20
1958 Spahn 28    Burdette 23  S Jones 23  Roberts 20
1959 V Law 24    Spahn 23     Drysdale 22 S Jones 22
1960 Drysdale 25 McDaniel 25  Broglio 24  L Jackson 21
   226. Kelly in SD Posted: August 25, 2004 at 08:21 AM (#817775)
1961-1970 Pitchers
American League
1961 Arroyo 23   Ford 22        Lary 22    Mossi 20
1962 Pascual 23  Aguirre 22     Kaat 22    Tie Bunning, Terry 21 
1963 Peters 25   Radatz 24      Ford 23    Tie Bouton, Pascual 22
1964 Chance 32   Ford 24        Radatz 24  Peters 22
1965 McDowell 25 Stottlemyre 23 Miller 22  Tie 3 with 20
1966 Kaat 26     Aker 20        Peters 20  Siebert 20
1967 Horlen 23   Peters 21      Chance 20  Tie Lonborg, Merritt 19
1968 McLain 33   Tiant 28       McNally 26 Tie Bahnsen, McDowell 23
1969 McLain 29   Stottlemyre 26 Cuellar 24 Peterson 23
1970 McDowell 30 Palmer 25      McNally 22 J Perry 21 


National League
1961 Spahn 25    O'Toole 22   Jay 20      Koufax 20
1962 Purkey 26   Drysdale 24  Spahn 23    Tie Friend, Gibson 21
1963 Koufax 32   Ellsworth 32 Marichal 26 Tied 3 with 22
1964 Drysdale 26 L Jackson 25 Marichal 25 Tie Gibson, Koufax 24 
1965 Koufax 33   Marichal 30  Drysdale 27 Bunning 27
1966 Koufax 35   Marichal 33  Bunning 30  Gibson 26
1967 Bunning 25  Abernathy 24 Tie Jenkins, Niekro, Seaver 21
1968 Gibson 36   Jenkins 25   Marichal 24 Tie Koosman, Seaver 23
1969 Gibson 33   Seaver 32    Marichal 29 Tie Niekro, Hands 28
1970 Gibson 28   Jenkins 26   Seaver 25   G Perry 24 
   227. Kelly in SD Posted: August 25, 2004 at 05:47 PM (#818249)
1971-1980 Pitchers
American League
1971 Wood 33    Blue 30      Lolich 29   Tie Hunter, Siebert 22 
1972 G Perry 39 Wood 29      Lolich 26   Palmer 25
1973 Hiller 31  Blyleven 29  Palmer 28   Ryan 28 
1974 G Perry 30 Tiant 29     Hunter 27   Jenkins 26 
1975 Palmer 31  Hunter 29    Gossage 23  Tie 3 with 22
1976 Palmer 27  Fidrych 27   Tanana 27   Blue 25
1977 Palmer 29  Leonard 24   Campbell 23 Tie Goltz, Ryan 22
1978 Guidry 31  Caldwell 28  Palmer 27   Matlack 25 
1979 Kern 25    Eckersley 24 Tie Flanagan, John, Koosman, Marshall 23
1980 Norris 25  Corbett 24   Gura 22     Burns 21 


National League
1971 Jenkins 37 Seaver 32      Wise 23    Tie Niekro, Wilson 22
1972 Carlton 40 Gibson 29      Sutton 24  Tie 7 players with 22
1973 Seaver 29  Marshall 23    Sutton 22  Renko 22
1974 Niekro 28  Messersmith 25 Matlack 24 Barr 23
1975 R Jones 28 Messersmith 28 Seaver 26  B Forsch 21
1976 Niekro 21  Jones 21       Rau 21     Montefusco 21
1977 Sutter 27  Candelaria 26  Carlton 26 Gossage 26 Reuschel 26
1978 Niekro 30  Blue 22        Knepper 22 Carlton 20
1979 Niekro 24  Richard 23     Sutter 22  Tekulve 20
1980 Carlton 29 Ruess 21 Tie Camp, Sutton, Rogers 20 
   228. Kelly in SD Posted: August 25, 2004 at 06:11 PM (#818307)
1981-1990
American League
1981 McCatty 18     Fingers 17     Morris 16      Stieb 15 
1982 Stieb 25       Quisenberry 22 Spilner 21     Tie 5 with 20
1983 Quisenberry 28 Stieb 24       Dotson 21      McGregor 21 Stanley 21
1984 Stieb 25       Hernandez 24   Quisenberry 24 Tie Alexander, Boddicker 23
1985 Saberhagen 24  Stieb 24       Leibrandt 24   Tie Blyleven, Quisenberry 23
1986 Clemens 29     Higuera 25     M Witt 23      Morris 20
1987 Clemens 28     Viola 24       Key 23         Saberhagen 23
1988 Viola 25       Gubicza 24     Higuera 22     Clemens 22
1989 Saberhagen 28  Blyleven 22    Gubicza 19     Finley 19
1990 Clemens 28     Finley 23      Stewart 21     Thigpen 21 

National League
1981 Seaver 17    Valenzuela 17 Carlton 16   Ryan 15
1982 Carlton 25   Niekro 25     Rogers 24    Andujar 22
1983 Soto 25      Denny 23      Orosco 20    Carlton 18 
1984 Sutter 23    Rhoden 20     Tie 7 with 18
1985 Gooden 33    Tudor 27      Hershiser 23 Valenzuela 21
1986 Scott 27     Valenzuela 21 Rhoden 20    T Worrell 19
1987 Hershiser 21 Burke 20      Welch 19     Sutcliffe 19
1988 Hershiser 25 Jackson 22    Maddux 20    Franco 20
1989 Hershiser 21 Maddux 20     M Davis 19   Tie Hurst, Whitson 18
1990 Drabek 20    Viola 20      Whitson 19   Tie Dibble, R Martinez 17 
   229. Kelly in SD Posted: August 25, 2004 at 06:40 PM (#818399)
1991-2001
American League
1991 Clemens 26    Tapani 21     Langston 20 Candiotti 20 Abbott 20 
1992 Clemens 26    Mussina 24    Tie Appier, McDowell, Nagy 20
1993 Appier 27     Montgomery 22 Johnson 22  Tie 3 with 21
1994 Cone 20       Mussina 18    Clemens 16  Tie 3 with 15 
1995 Johnson 22    Rogers 21     Mussina 20  Cone 19 
1996 Hentgen 24    K Hill 22     Nagy 21     Clemens 20 
1997 Clemens 32    Johnson 23    Thompson 21 Pettitte 20
1998 Clemens 25    P Martinez 21 Rogers 19   Tie Wells, Moyer 18 
1999 P Martinez 27 Lowe 19       Moyer 18    Tie Radke, Rivera 17
2000 P Martinez 29 Lowe 19       Mussina 18  Wells 18
2001 Mays 22       Mussina 20    Clemens 19  Rivera 19 

National League
1991 Glavine 23    D Martinez 18 M Williams 18 Tie 4 with 17 
1992 Maddux 27     Tewksbury 21  Drabek 20     Tie Morgan, Glavine 19 
1993 Rijo 26       Maddux 25     Wetteland 21  Glavine 20
1994 Maddux 26     Saberhagen 16 Jackson 14    Tie 3 with 13 
1995 Maddux  30    Glavine 20    Nomo 17       Smoltz 17
1996 Smoltz 27     Brown 26      Maddux 23     Glavine 22
1997 P Martinez 26 Maddux 26     Brown 23      Schilling 22
1998 Brown 26      Maddux 25     Glavine 23    Schilling 22
1999 Johnson 26    Hampton 26    Millwood 22   Wagner 20
2000 Johnson 26    Maddux 24     Glavine 21    Brown 20
2001 Johnson 26    Schilling 24  Vazquez 21    Maddux 20 
   230. Jeff M Posted: August 27, 2004 at 10:12 PM (#823598)
Once upon a time I was looking for Tip O'Neill, and at that time the trick was you had to enter O"Neill or you just couldn't get it to come up.

' didn't do it.

" had to be.


Use the = sign. It doesn't work in the "Find Player" box, but it works in the html address. So pick a player without an apostrophe and find that player. Then in the html address, type in the code for the player you are looking for.

For example, Jim O'Rourke would be o=rouji01. Note that the = sign counts as a character when determining the first five letters of the player's last name.
   231. DavidFoss Posted: August 27, 2004 at 10:42 PM (#823628)
If you can handle the slow loading, the full list of player pages at BP is here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt
   232. Kelly in SD Posted: August 28, 2004 at 08:24 AM (#824715)
Pud Galvin:
Teams: StLNA 1875, BufN 1879-1885, PitAA 1885-1886, PitN 1887-1889, PitPL 1890, PitN 1891-1892, StLN 1892.
Record: 364-310 .540 2.87 era/ 5.03 runsallowed, league era 3.08, K/W 2.42, WH9IP=10.72
Win Shares: Career 403; 3 yrs cons 133; 7 best yrs 296; per 50 starts 29. Seasons with 20+: 8. Seasons with 30+: 7. Seasons with 40+: 3. Seasons 50+: 2. 60+: 1.
AllStars: STATS 0. WinShares 1.
Fibonacci WinPoints: 245
ERA+: 108
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 15/248
Bill James Rank: 100-200
Top 10s: BB/9 14 times with 3 firsts. SHo 14 times. Wins, CG, IP 10 times each. BBH/9IP 9 times. ERA, WL% 8 times.
Other/Unique: Galvin played for 8 teams that finished with winning records and 8 teams with losing records. The records of his teams 883-968 .477 (per 162 games 77-85) is pulled down because he played for 6 of his losing teams from 1887-1892 when schedules were longer as opposed to winning Buffalo teams in 1879, 1881-1884 when schedules were shorter. Without his games included, his teams finished 526-662 .443 (or on 162 games 72-90)
Team finish: 1879 53/8, 1880 7/8, 1881 3/8, 1882 4/8, 1883 5/8, 1884 3/8, 1885 NL 7/8, 1885 AA 3/8, 1886 2/8, 1887 6/8, 1888 6/8 1889 5/8 1890 6/8, 1891 8/8, 1892 6/12 and 11/12.

Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers:
Monte Ward  8-12
Radbourn   14-16
Keefe       6-10
Clarkson    5-7
Caruthers   4-4
Rusie       4-2
Young       1-1
total      42-52  .447
others
Bond        3-9
Welch       9-26 (11-26 when I counted before)
McCormick  18-16
Buffington  9-10
Mullane     3-3 

Record depending on opponent's finish:
finish   Galvin
1st      29-58
         .333
2nd      34-55
         .382
3rd      36-29
         .554
4th      42-43
         .495
5th      44-36
         .550
6th      52-31
         .627
7th      49-24
         .671
8th      65-26
         .714
9-12      6-5
         .545 

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record  Galvin
.500+   154-187
         .452
.500-   203-119
         .630  
   233. Kelly in SD Posted: August 28, 2004 at 08:37 AM (#824717)
From Chris J.'s website, runsupportindex.blogspot.com: About Galvin ...

Run Support Index: 102.11 (13th out of 20 pre 93 pitchers- approx)
Defensive Support: -7.3 (One of the worst ever)
   234. Brent Posted: August 29, 2004 at 12:31 AM (#825708)
Since there is a discussion of pitcher workloads going on in the 1933 ballot discussion thread, I thought I would post the data that I've been looking at. However, I decided to post it on this thread, since this seems to be the place someone looking for it would most easily find it.

The first list shows the IP of the 5th ranked pitcher in IP for each league / season. I chose the number 5 pitcher, figuring that his workload would represent a typical "full" schedule while avoiding the outliers. The second list will show the IP for the same pitchers as a percent of his team's total IP. By showing percentages, this second list adjusts for changes in season length and more clearly shows the movements from 2 to 3 to 4 starters.

IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP, 1876-1900

       NL      AA      PL
1876   408
1877   350
1878   347
1879   546.3
1880   536.3
1881   462.3
1882   411     358
1883   473.7   451
1884   516.7   483
1885   440     480
1886   466.7   504
1887   404.7   466.3
1888   425.3   453.3
1889   375     445
1890   424     401.3   383.3
1891   426.3   415
1892   453
1893   382.7
1894   407
1895   369.7
1896   366.3
1897   337.3
1898   362
1899   361.7
1900   320.7


IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP, 1901-29

       NL      AL      FL
1901   336     324
1902   306     316.3
1903   312.3   320.7
1904   350     380
1905   334.3   323
1906   307.3   315
1907   310.3   338.7
1908   330     301
1909   289.7   293.3
1910   295.3   290.7
1911   308.3   275.7
1912   302     291.7
1913   305     276
1914   321     299     316.7
1915   291.7   299.7   302.3
1916   300     290.7
1917   295.7   298.3
1918   269.3   272.7
1919   270.7   286
1920   301     303.3
1921   299     308.7
1922   267.3   287.3
1923   304.3   282.3
1924   259.3   278
1925   265.3   254.3
1926   267.3   258.3
1927   273.3   256.3
1928   261.3   262.7
1929   268     266.7
   235. Brent Posted: August 29, 2004 at 12:32 AM (#825712)
IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP 
as percent of team IP, 1876-1900

        NL      AA      PL
1876    65.4
1877    64.7
1878    60.0
1879    73.7
1880    69.2
1881    62.7
1882    55.7    55.4
1883    55.0    51.7
1884    51.8    49.1
1885    45.1    47.9
1886    42.5    41.0
1887    37.1    39.3
1888    35.2    37.8
1889    32.6    36.7
1890    35.7    33.1    33.5
1891    35.0    35.1
1892    33.9
1893    33.2
1894    34.9
1895    32.3
1896    32.2
1897    29.3
1898    27.1
1899    28.3
1900    25.9


IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP 
as percent of team IP, 1901-29

        NL      AL      FL
1901    27.3    27.4
1902    25.3    25.4
1903    25.2    26.8
1904    26.0    27.0
1905    24.2    23.3
1906    23.0    22.3
1907    22.6    24.3
1908    23.4    21.9
1909    20.7    21.3
1910    21.4    20.5
1911    22.5    20.4
1912    21.9    21.9
1913    22.2    19.9
1914    23.3    21.2    22.7
1915    21.0    21.4    22.2
1916    21.3    20.1
1917    21.1    21.1
1918    22.5    24.3
1919    21.3    23.0
1920    21.7    21.9
1921    21.6    22.6
1922    19.3    20.8
1923    22.1    20.6
1924    18.8    20.7
1925    19.7    19.2
1926    20.0    18.8
1927    19.9    18.5
1928    18.7    19.1
1929    19.5    19.5


A couple of comments:

- The transitions to ligher workloads have usually taken place gradually over periods lasting 2 to 5 years. For example, the movement from 2 starters to 3 appears to have taken place from 1884 to 1888, the movement from 3 starters to 4 between 1896 to 1898. There's another gradual reduction in workload from 1904 to 1909, and another from 1921 to 1925.

- Several writers including, Bill James, have emphasized a drop in pitcher workloads in 1893 when the 60 ft. 6 inch distance was adopted. However by looking at the IP as a percentage of the team's, we see that the decline in IP that year was actually due to the shorter 132 game schedule. The percentage workload didn't drop until 1896-98 when the number of games went back up and teams responded by adding a fourth starter.
   236. Kelly in SD Posted: August 29, 2004 at 03:26 AM (#825932)
Urban Shocker

Teams: NYA 1916-1917, StLA 1918-1924, NYA 1925-1928.
Record: 187-117 .615 WL%, 3.16 era/3.78 runsallowed LgERA 3.88, K/W 1.50, WH9IP=11.3
Win Shares: Career 225; 3 yrs cons 84; 7 best yrs 166; per 40 starts 24. Seasons with 20+: 5. Seasons with 30+: 1.
AllStars: STATS 5, WS 3
Fibonacci WinPoints: 185
ERA+: 124
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 15/179
Bill James Rank: 71
Top 10s: BBH/9IP 9 times. ERA and BB/9IP 8 times with 2 firsts in BB. Wins 7 times with one first. SHo 7 times. WL%, IP, CG 6 times. Strikeouts 5 times with one first, K/9 5 times.
Won 11 games in relief from 1920-27 per Retrosheet.
World Series: 1926, 1927 (didn't pitch)
Run Support Index: 101.77 - approx 38th for pitchers up through 1930
Defensive Support: 5.5 wins shares better than an average defense - approx. 44th
Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers and top pitchers of the day since no HoMers yet:
 
Johnson     4-1
Coveleski   5-4
Mays        4-4
Shawkey     5-5
Faber       6-3
Bagby       1-1
Dauss       1-3
Ehmke       2-4
Pennock     5-1
Uhle        1-5
Rommel      3-2
Hoyt        3-4
Ruffing     3-0
total      43-37  .538  

Record depending on opponent's finish:
finish   Shocker
1st      22-21
         .512
2nd      16-18
         .471
3rd      20-25
         .444
4th      18-17
         .514
5th      19-15
         .559
6th      22-14
         .611
7th      24-7
         .774
8th      35-7
         .833   

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record  Shocker
.500+    83-90
         .480
.500-    93-34
         .732   

Records againt each team (just for fun):
StL 12-3   .800
Bos 26-9   .743
Was 33-16  .673
Phi 26-13  .667
Chi 24-14  .632
Cle 20-20  .500
NY  21-25  .457
Det 14-24  .368     
   237. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:24 AM (#827075)
Brent, interesting stuff.

Would it be easy to redo the list, using a % of some type, based on teams? Like instead of 5th best, do it best on a number equal to 1/2 of the total teams in baseball (or the league) or something like that. With the changing number of teams in the 1800s, I could see that possibly throwing the dates off. Does anyone agree? Being 5th in a 16-team league is more impressive than being 5th in a 12-team league, right? Just a thought, maybe it wouldn't matter. Interesting stuff either way, thanks!
   238. Kelly in SD Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:48 AM (#827105)
Stanley Coveleski

Teams: PhiA 1912, Cle 1916-1924, Was 1925-1927, NYA 1928.
Record: 215-142 .602 WL%, 2.88 era/3.60 runs allowed / LgERA 3.65, K/W 1.22, WH9IP=11.22
Win Shares: Career 245; 3 yrs cons 88; 7 best yrs 187; per 40 starts 23. Seasons with 20+: 7. Seasons with 30+: 1.
AllStars: STATS 4, WS 4
Fibonacci WinPoints: 202
ERA+: 127
Black Ink/Grey Ink: 22/193
Bill James Rank: 58
Top 10s: ERA, SHo 9 times with 2 firsts in each. aERA+ 8 times with 2 firsts. IP 8 times. CG, BB/9IP 7 times. Wins, Strikeouts, BBH/9IP 6 times each with one first in Ks and baserunners. WL%, H/9IP 4 times each with one first in WL%, 2 firsts in hits.
World Series Teams: 1920 (3-0, .67 ERA 3 CG), 1925 (0-2, 3.77 ERA), 1928 (did not pitch)
Run Support Index: 100.57 so received average support
Defensive Support: +4.8 (approx 45th among pre-1930 pitchers)
Chris J. WL adjusted for Run and Defensive Support: 212-145
Other: Most similar pitchers include 10 pitchers with similarity scores over 900 - he is not a highly individual pitcher, though it includes one HoMer. Most similar: Carl Mays, Freddie Fitzsimmons, Eddie Cicotte, Jack Chesbro, McGinnity, Warneke, Buffington, Clark Griffith, Wilbur Cooper, Babe Adams
Career Breakdowns:
Against HoMers and top pitchers of the day since no HoMers yet:
Johnson     2-8
Cicotte     2-2
Bush        6-3
Quinn       5-2
Mays        4-0
Shawkey     6-4
Shocker     4-6
Faber       9-3
Leonard     3-5
Dauss       5-1
Ehmke       3-2
Pennock     6-2
Uhle        1-0
Rommel      4-5
Hoyt        2-9
Ruffing     2-0
Grove       1-0
total      65-52  .556  
Record depending on opponent's finish:  <pre> 
finish  Coveleski
1st      14-30
         .318
2nd      22-18
         .550
3rd      26-21
         .553
4th      30-19
         .612
5th      28-18
         .609
6th      26-16
         .619
7th      31-17
         .646
8th      37-14
         .725   

Records against over/under .500 teams
Record  Coveleski
.500+    91-87
         .508
.500-   123-66  

.651
   239. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:13 PM (#827214)
Kelly, I have at 2-9 vs. Johnson:

1916..1-1
1917..0-1
1921..1-2
1923..0-4
1924..0-1

Did I screw one up?
   240. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: August 30, 2004 at 02:14 PM (#827219)
Kelly, I have him at 2-9 vs. Johnson:

And him means Coveleski. That could've been worded better.
   241. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2004 at 04:21 PM (#827408)
I'm going to use Brent's numbers to come up with career lengths for each of pur pitching candidates. I'm going to treat a pitcher as having done a full season's work if he pitches the 5th most innings in his league, to have done partial season's work for less innings, and more than a season's work if he ranks in the top 4 in the league. By that measure, I give you the first two career lengths:

Covaleski 11.1 "seasons"
Welch 10.4 "seasons"

Should be interesting to see how pitchers compare across eras.
   242. PhillyBooster Posted: August 30, 2004 at 04:30 PM (#827422)
On the other hand, pulling from data of the discussion thread:

Rank among pitchers in IP, age 27 1881-1890:

1. Galvin
2. Keefe
3. Welch

Rank among pitchers in IP, age 27 1911-1920:

1. Johnson
2. Alexander
3. Rixey
4. Faber
5. Quinn
6. Jones
7. Cooper
8. Dauss
9. Marquard
10. Cicotte
11. Luque
12. Bush
13. Covaleski

Will all 13 end up with more seasons than every 1880s pitcher except Galvin and Keefe?
   243. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:32 PM (#827504)
PhillyBooster's point leads me quickly to a question that I intended to leave until the end: is a 1920 "season" equal in value to an "1880" season? These seasonal calculations are good for cross-era comparisons, but to use them for evaluative purposes you need to assume that all else equal pitching the fifth most innings in 1880 has the same value as pitching the fifth most innings in 1920. That may be true but it may also have less value (say because pitching less was important relative to fielding in the early years) or more value (because pitchers could pitch a much higher percentage of their team's innings).
   244. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2004 at 05:57 PM (#827532)
Update:

"Seasons" pitched:

Covaleski 11.1
Cicotte 11.1
Welch 10.4
Radbourn 10.3
Griffith 9.8
Waddell 9.1
Joss 7.3
   245. Kelly in SD Posted: August 30, 2004 at 06:18 PM (#827555)
Chris J wrote:
Kelly, I have at 2-9 vs. Johnson:

1916..1-1
1917..0-1
1921..1-2
1923..0-4
1924..0-1


Chris, I think the difference is the Aug 5, 1923 game. Coveleski and Johnson started. Washington won the game, but Zahniser got the win. Since Johnson didn't get the win, I didn't count the game as a loss against Johnson.
This leads to a method question: After 1919, Retrosheet includes information on Starters and Winning Pitcher. If the subject pitcher loses the game but the opposing starter does not figure in the decision, should the game count as a loss to the opposing pitcher? Obviously, for games before 1920 we can't do this so we have to go by starters only. Should we remain consistent with the earlier era or should we take all the information into account and have to different databases of info?
Your thoughts...
   246. andrew siegel Posted: August 30, 2004 at 08:42 PM (#827795)
Update on pitcher "seasons":

Galvin 13.1 [no credit for 1876-1878]
Willis 12.3
Cooper 12.1
Coveleski 11.1
Cicotte 11.1
Clarkson 11.1
McGinnity 10.5
Welch 10.4
Radbourn 10.3
Griffith 9.8
McCormick 9.5
Rusie 9.5
Waddell 9.1
Joss 7.3
Caruthers 6.0
   247. Brent Posted: August 31, 2004 at 04:17 AM (#828187)
Joe wrote:

Would it be easy to redo the list, using a % of some type, based on teams?

For the 1892-99 period when there were 12 teams in the NL, here are the data for the 7th best pitcher. (I couldn't get the percentages to come out exactly equal, but I think the 7th best for a 12-team league is close to equivalent to 5th best for an 8-team league.)

1892   440.3
1893   380.3
1894   360.7
1895   353
1896   358
1897   333
1898   356.7
1899   343.3

The only year for which it seems to make much difference is 1894.

My recollection is that there were two or three other leagues in the 1870s or 80s with maybe 6 or 10 teams, but I don't have time to track them down right now.
   248. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: August 31, 2004 at 04:43 AM (#828203)
Brent, thanks!

FYI - from 1871-1881 there's only one league to worry about, either the NA or the NL. From 1882-1891 there is the AA/NL (I wouldn't even bother with the 1884 UA), except for 1890 with the PL.
   249. jimd Posted: August 31, 2004 at 05:46 PM (#828866)
two or three other leagues in the 1870s or 80s with maybe 6 or 10 teams,

NA - different number starting every year, lots of teams folding during season

NL - always 8 teams before 1961, except for 1877-78 (6) and 1892-99 (12)

AA - usually 8 "scheduled" teams, 6 in 1882, 12 in 1884 (one folded and was replaced), midseason fold/replacement also in 1890 and 1891.

UA - 8 "scheduled" teams, with many folds/replacements (but no more than 8 members at any given time)
   250. Paul Wendt Posted: September 01, 2004 at 10:24 PM (#831712)
jimd's 1933 approach (quoted below) to the variable number of MLB or league teams seems appropriate. Some alternative specifications should be tried: alternatives to {median of N leaders} and alternatives counting stats {GS, IP} --where jimd has already tried both for median of N.

Anyway, I think the result should be a continuous rather than integer measure. Perhaps a moving average (3 yrs?) of some annual variable.

I haven't kept up. How many measures of workloads or full seasons (which may be equivalent) are presently in systematic use?

Paul Wendt

jimd, 27 Aug 2004, 1933 Ballot Discussion page 3
I've been doing something somewhat similar, based on the concept of a "median ace". I take the number of teams in MLB, N, and then grab the top N pitchers in whatever counting stat (GS or IP) and take the median. That's the median "ace". I then divide the team average (GS or IP) by the "median ace" and that's the number of "aces" that a team would require to cover it's schedule. This yields an ideal number of starters/pitchers for MLB, ideal in the same sense than an 8 team league would require 8 shortstops, even though the number of actual full-time starters may vary from, say, 6-9 depending on injuries, trades, replacement, etc.

My numbers are less "conservative" than yours.

1871-1880 1 starter/pitcher
1881-1886 2 starters/pitchers
1887-1897 3 starters/pitchers
1898-1908 4 starters/pitchers
1909-1923 4 starters (GS) 5 pitchers (IP)
1924-1954 5 starters/pitchers

The two counting stats yield different dates when a fifth pitcher is added, I suppose due to the slow rise of the relief pitcher (probably more due to the rise of the pinch hitter for late inning offense rather than any desire to get the starter out of there).

This also agrees pretty well with the STATS All-Stars dates for adding more pitchers to their All-Star teams (1882, 1886, 1898, 1924), though I will note that STATS adds a relief pitcher instead of a starter in 1924. This is probably justified in part because 1923 was the landmark year when Complete Games dropped below 50%.
   251. Paul Wendt Posted: September 03, 2004 at 08:26 PM (#835663)
The Baseball Records Cmte newsletter (SABR) includes a feature by Walt Wilson that is almost bimonthly, a tally of battery mates for the Hall of Fame pitchers in their starts and shutouts. Usually two pitchers. Here is a little of the April 2004 data, my arrangement.

Starts Name Shutouts

483 FABER, 29
307 Schalk, 22
176 other, 5
(22 of pitcher Red Faber's 29 shutouts were complete games for catcher Ray Schalk, too. 5 were complete games for another catcher.)

554 RIXEY, 37
142 Hargrave, 12
118 Killefer, 13
294 other, 11

In Schalk and Killefer, Faber and Rixey worked with two famous catchers. But the catcher shutout data reflects timing. For example, Killefer was Rixey's regular catcher in the deadball era, 1912-1917.
   252. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: September 04, 2004 at 07:12 PM (#837203)
FWIW, got some new stuff on my site. A poster here named Dr. Memory invented a few stats & has given me permission to dump them on my site. The first one I lamely call: "Dr Memory's K-number." Essentially, it's to K/9IP what ERA+ is to ERA. It's results are here. It's explained in more detail on my site. Second, Dr M's BB-number - same as previous, only now BB/9IP. And finally K/BB number - based on K/BB ratio.

I've got all his info up (mostly in rough format) right now. Over 600 (!) pitchers done by him. Eventually, I intend to write in everyone's full name, and separate the relievers & starters, but for now it's just what it is. Also, I'd like to put direct links to all the pitchers I have individual thread/pages for & then put all the Dr M's info listed on them with links back to the 3 Dr M threads.

Worst K/BB+ number of any Hall of Famer? Mickey Welch.
   253. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 05, 2004 at 11:15 PM (#838402)
All posts reconstructed up to #87.
   254. andrew siegel Posted: September 08, 2004 at 11:53 PM (#843567)
As promised pitcher "seasons" for all major league HoMers, all pitchers receiving a vote in the last election, and all significant pitchers who will be added to the ballot through the 1936 election.

Caveats:
(1) Calculations done by hand and are likely inaccurate in a number of places.
(2) I use the 5th highest inning total in the pitcher's league as the marker of a full season, thus setting the bar at different heights for different leagues.
(3) There is no guarantee that an 1880 pitcher season is exactly as valuable as a 1920 pitcher seasons-- it might be more valuable (e.g., b/c/ greater number of innings) or less valuable (e.g., b/c/ greater fielder responsiblity for run prevention).
(4) I make no effort to give credit in these numbers for war years, holdouts, blacklists, minor league play, pre-NA seasons, etc.-- this is a purely descriptive number of major league "seasons."

For what it's worth:

(1) Young 21.0
(2) Johnson 20.3
(3) Alexander 17.9
(4) Matthewson 15.4
(5) Plank 14.5
(6) Nichols 13.5
(7) Galvin 13.1
(8) Keefe 12.7
(9) Willis 12.3
(10) Cooper 12.1
(11) Coveleski 11.1
(11) Cicotte 11.1
(11) Clarkson 11.1
(14) Matthews 11.0
(15) Mays 10.6
(16) McGinnity 10.5
(17) Welch 10.4
(18) Mullane 10.4
(19) Radbourn 10.3
(20) Brown 10.1
(21) Walsh 9.8
(21) Griffith 9.8
(23) McCormick 9.5
(23) Rusie 9.5
(23) Shocker 9.5
(26) Waddell 9.1
(27) Bond 8.5
(28) Vaughn 8.4
(29) Leever 8.1
(30) King 7.8
(31) Spalding 7.5
(32) Joss 7.3
Caruthers 6.0
   255. andrew siegel Posted: September 08, 2004 at 11:54 PM (#843568)
that list should obviously end:

(33) Caruthers 6.0
   256. PhillyBooster Posted: September 09, 2004 at 02:37 AM (#843930)
Interesting numbers. I may have to reconsider Vic Willis's "short" career, since he seems to have to most pitcher seasons of any non-HoMer.

Since the debated-man-of-the-hour is Stan Covaleski, I'd be most interested to see how he ranked to his peers -- say, Eppa Rixey, Dolf Luque, Red Faber, Sam Jones, Waite Hoyt, Carl Mays, Burleigh Grimes. Due to your Caveat #3, I am dubious about applying the numbers across generations.

The only Covaleski peers to be eligible so far are Cooper and Shocker, and Marquard too, but I guess he didn't get any votes. None are really serious candidates, though. Of course, my assumption is that Covaleski is eligible first because his career was markedly shorter, but it'd be interesting to see by how much.
   257. andrew siegel Posted: September 09, 2004 at 01:22 PM (#844578)
PhillyBooster--

Mays is on the list above; the other new eligibles will come soon. Eventually, I'll do Babe Adams, Marquard, Jack Powell, Jim Whitney, Charlie Buffinton, etc. for comparisons sake, but for now I limited myself to guys getting votes.
   258. Brent Posted: October 03, 2004 at 03:54 AM (#894778)
Extending the data series that I posted in # 257 above, here are the data on innings pitched of the 5th ranked pitcher in IP for each league / season from 1930-59.

IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP, 1930-1959

        NL      AL
1930    251     279.7
1931    251     271.3
1932    273     265.3
1933    287.3   255.7
1934    291.3   256.3
1935    261.7   274.3
1936    266.7   271
1937    259     262
1938    267.3   245.3
1939    269.7   233.3
1940    280     263.7
1941    246     250.3
1942    261     239.3
1943    265.3   246.7
1944    258.7   252.7
1945    232.3   251
1946    224.3   274
1947    248     252.7
1948    246.7   236.3
1949    244.3   274.7
1950    275     249
1951    278.7   249.7
1952    247     255.3
1953    238     255
1954    258.7   252.7
1955    235.3   235
1956    264     255.3
1957    249.7   240.7
1958    250     245
1959    270.7   235.3

In contrast to the data for 1876-1929, for this period the data are really stable without any trends. Over most of the period, the best pitchers would work 240 to 270 innings, or between 17 to 20 percent of their team's total IP.

Being familiar with some seasons in the 1940s and early 50s when Feller and Roberts pitched 350+ innings, I had expected to see an uptick during that period, but it turns out those seasons are just real outliers. Nobody else was pitching those kind of workloads.
   259. Paul Wendt Posted: March 29, 2005 at 06:53 AM (#1222054)
Secretary Murphy suggested that this venue, which seems right to me.

Number of pitchers among Win Shares leaders by decade
Years Top50 Top10
1880s - 21 - 10
1890s - 19 - 4
1900s - 20 - 4
1910s - 12 - 2
1920s - 19 - 3 !
1930s - 12 - 2
1940s - _9 - 1
1950s - _7 - 2
1960s - _6 - 0
1970s - _9 - 1
1980s - _3 - 0 (29 stieb, 44 morris, 46 quisenberry)
1990s - _7 - 1

The threshold number of Win Shares for Top50 ranges from 125 in the 1940s to 157 in the 1890s.

Who is a pitcher? My call, considering performance within decade, but it turns out that I counted everyone who generated 50% of his career Win Shares by pitching. Only five players who ranked within any decade Top50 generated between 20% and 70% by pitching.

1880s - Dave Foutz (56%), not Monte Ward (42%)
1890s - Kid Gleason (51%), not Elmer Smith (34%)
1900s - not Cy Seymour (22%)
   260. Paul Wendt Posted: March 29, 2005 at 07:07 AM (#1222074)
Secretary Murphy suggested this venue which seems right to me.

Number of pitchers among Win Shares leaders by decade
Years Top50 Top10
1880s - 21 - 10 ; that is, 21 of the top 50 and all of the top 10
1890s - 19 - 4
1900s - 20 - 4
1910s - 12 - 2
1920s - 19 - 3 !
1930s - 12 - 2
1940s - _9 - 1
1950s - _7 - 2
1960s - _6 - 0
1970s - _9 - 1
1980s - _3 - 0 (29 stieb, 44 morris, 46 quisenberry)
1990s - _7 - 1

The threshold number of Win Shares in-decade ranges from 121 in the 1880s to 157 in the 1900s.

Who is a pitcher? I call 'em as I see 'em, in a glance at performance within decade. My calls turn out to be everyone who generated at least 50% of career Win Shares by pitching.

1880s - Dave Foutz (56%), not Monte Ward (42%)
1890s - Kid Gleason (51%), not Elmer Smith (34%)
1900s - not Cy Seymour (22%)
   261. Paul Wendt Posted: March 29, 2005 at 07:52 AM (#1222106)
Kelly #241:
National League
1876 Spalding 57
1877 Devlin 60


1876 is a tie, Spalding and Bradley
1919 is a tie for second, Johnson and Coveleski
   262. Kelly in SD Posted: March 29, 2005 at 09:02 AM (#1222145)
Paul:

A little explanation: My idea behind making the lists was to determine the "all-star" or "stars" for the particular year. There would only be one pitcher on the 1876 team and I thought Spalding would have been picked as he was on the pennant winning team.
Second, there are many instances of ties with pitchers, but I usually listed "tie" only when there was a tie that resulted in more pitchers being listed than normal. For example, in 1915 AL, there is a tie for a second between Dauss and Foster, but I did not use "tie." I should have used "tie" for the next two pitchers in a tie for 4th because there were now 5 pitchers listed instead of the usual 4.
   263. Paul Wendt Posted: March 30, 2005 at 04:56 PM (#1223904)
OK. I made a list of the WS leaders (one per league-season), checked it against yours on Monday night. I might write to Bill James and ask about pure pitching leaders, a Win Shares Cy Young Award.

By the way, I guess that Bradley would have been the one contemporary pitcher selected in 1876, with the shutouts and the hint of carrying the team.
   264. sunnyday2 Posted: July 14, 2005 at 09:38 PM (#1472320)
Omigod, pitchers, fools rush in... Current 1955 voting.

More Career Than Peak

8. Red Ruffing 25 ballots-330 points. high of #2
13. Eppa Rixey 21-247-2nd
20. Mickey Welch 10-144-2nd
35. Burleigh Grimes 6-74-6th

More Peak Than Career

10. Wes Ferrell 23-282-2nd
24. Bucky Walters 11-125-4th
27. Jose Mendez 10-113-2 6ths
31. Rube Waddell 10-97-8th
38. Dizzy Dean 5-54-7th
41. Tommy Bridges 5-49-3 9ths
51. Tommy Bond 13-1-8th
54T. Lefty Gomez 1-10-11th
54T. Sam Leever 1-10-11th

Combo(?)

14. Clark Griffith 20-230-4th
21. Dick Redding 12-137-2 5ths
49. Eddie Cicotte 1-17-4th
52T. Dolf Luque 1-12-9th
57T. Carl Mays 1-8-13th
57T. Vic Willis 1-8-13th
61T. Bill Byrd 1-6-15th

Over the next few years we will be seeing Bob Feller (combo), Hal Newhouser (peak), Bob Lemon (combo), Don Newcombe (peak/combo?). Probably missed a couple.

And there have been of course many many others who have gotten support over the years including:

Addie Joss (peak)
Jack Chesbro (kidding)
Tony Mullane (career)
Wilbur Cooper (career)
Jim Whitney (peak)
Jim McCormick (combo)
Silver King (peak)
Urban Shocker (combo)

There are many more recent pitchers not on either list but who have succumbed to the very tough competition of the past decade or two, whereas many of the above probably would never have had support either if they had faced that competition. Highly speculative list of some of them might include Hippo Vaughn, Lon Warneke, Paul Derringer, Mel Harder, Jack Quinn, Hilton Smith, among others.

Questions

1. Is Ruffing better than Rixey as the leading career candidate?

2. Is Ferrell the best peak candidate? What about Walters, Waddell, Dean? What about Mendez?

3. And if the answers to 1 and 2 are yes and yes, then is Ruffing better than Ferrell?

4. Where do Griffith and Redding fit in? Do they suffer unfairly because they don't fit and dominate in either the career or peak category?

5. Where do Redding and Mendez rank to one another? And is there another NeLer who has been overlooked but was better? Andy Cooper, Bill Byrd, Hilton Smith?

6. Who have we missed on? Some obviously would say Welch, or Mays, or Cicotte, or Joss. As contemporaries, was Mays better or Cicotte?

More than enough to think about here. I of course prefer the peakers as a group, I might follow up with some arguments. Anybody want to convince us on the careerists? And the combonists?
   265. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: July 17, 2005 at 04:29 AM (#1477761)
I'll throw this out there because I happened to update it tonight. I guess it's mostly a peak, or maybe a prime measure. I take the difference between the pitcher's Win Shares and the 15th highest Win Shares total for that season for all of MLB, plus 5 for each year that he qualifies.(I take the top 17-20 pitchers each year, whatever number works as a flat cutoff.) There is no league quality adjustment (see #11 below)

Anyway, here's the top 30+ a few others, for the period 1893-1952, HoMers in bold, (+) - incomplete career:

1. Cy Young 264+
2. Walter Johnson 264
3. Grover Cleveland Alexander 187
4. Lefty Grove 184
5. Christy Mathewson 179
6. Kid Nichols 170+
7. Ed Walsh 116
8. Carl Hubbell 107
9. Joe McGinnity 106

10. Bob Feller 105
11. Hal Newhouser 105
12. Wes Ferrell 96
13. Three Finger Brown 95
14. Amos Rusie 94+

15. Vic Willis 93
16. Wilbur Cooper 87
17. Bucky Walters 86
18. Clark Grifith 83
19. Stan Coveleski 83
20. Carl Mays 81
21. Burleigh Grimes 81
22. Ted Breitenstein 79
23. Dizzy Dean 78
24. Pink Hawley 72
25. Dazzy Vance 71
26. Eddie Plank 70
27. Ted Lyons 68

28. Red Ruffing 65
29. Lon Warneke 64
30. Eddie Cicotte 63

T31. Eppa Rixey 62
33. Urban Shocker 61
T34. Hippo Vaughn 60
T36. Hall of Famer Happy Jack Chesbro 58 (not kidding)
38. Rube Waddell 56
T39. Mel Harder 55
45. Lefty Gomez 52
T49. Addie Joss 50
T52. Red Faber 49

Dolf Luque 43+
Tommy Bridges 41
Sam Leever 33

Obviously, there does seem to be a bit of a bias to older players. I did a quick extrapolation on Spahn, and he probably winds up around 160.

Some thoughts:
1) This is part of the reason Clark Griffith never makes my ballot any more. He's very close to a couple of contemporaries who were never considered seriously.

2) Dean does pretty good, but I think this accurately shows he's a step behind Ferrell. Here's their qualifiying years, best to worst:

Ferrell: 19, 19, 14, 13, 12, 10, 5, 4
Dean: 24, 16, 15, 11, 8, 4

Dean's best year was better, but their next 3 are roughly equal, and the next 4 are much better for Ferrell.

3) Walters does well, but with a wartime adjustment, he's pretty even with Dean. (And checking my rankings, I'd been overlooking that.)

4) Waddell and Joss don't look so hot, but Vic Willis does. He's one guy I always worry I'm underrating.

5) I'm reluctant to rely on this too heavily for the pitchers with mainly a career argument, because I do think it underrates them. I can see liking Ed Walsh more than Eddie Plank, but not that much. (Still, Red Faber, what were we thinking? That includes me.) Grimes as the best career candidate is a bit of a surprise, though.
   266. jimd Posted: July 18, 2005 at 09:57 PM (#1481136)
Best SP 1871-1940 by WARP

Lexicographic key:
Upper Case -- A TOP star; one of top N players in MLB
Lower Case -- a 2nd tier star; one top 2N players in MLB
(in parentheses) -- nearly a 2nd tier star (withing 10%)
<in angle brackets> -- best at position; not an all-star season
Note: N is approximate number of teams:
9 from 1871-1881; 12 from 1882-1900; 16 from 1901-1960
Note: All TOP stars are listed, even if not best at position
This represents a level of play where one might expect the player
to be the best on his team, except for uneven talent distribution.

Pitcher's Note: The number listed varies by year, depending on the
number of top "median aces" that a team requires to cover the innings
pitched. It is similar but not identical to the number of All-Stars
selected by STATS in their All-Time Sourcebook.
1871-1880 1 "First Team All-Star"
1881-1886 2 "First Team All-Stars"
1887-1897 3 "First Team All-Stars"
1898-1923 4 "First Team All-Stars"
1924-1940 5 "First Team All-Stars"

First Team All-Stars (top 4 actually)

1871 RYNIEWOLTERS
1872 GEORGEZETTLEIN
1873 ALSPALDING
1874 ALSPALDING
1875 ALSPALDING
1876 JIMDEVLIN
1877 JIMDEVLIN
1878 SAMWEAVER
1879 TOMMYBOND
1880 MONTEWARD

1881 PUDGALVIN          JIMWHITNEY
1882 JIMMCCORMICK       CHARLESRADBOURN
1883 CHARLESRADBOURN    JIMWHITNEY
1884 PUDGALVIN          CHARLIEBUFFINTON
1885 JOHNCLARKSON       EDMORRIS                
1886 BOBCARUTHERS       DAVEFOUTZ

1887 JOHNCLARKSON       MATTKILROY          BOBCARUTHERS
1888 SILVERKING         CHARLIEBUFFINTON    EDSEWARD
1889 JOHNCLARKSON       CHARLIEBUFFINTON    MATTKILROY
1890 AMOSRUSIE          SILVERKING          KIDNICHOLS
1891 JACKSTIVETTS       AMOSRUSIE           BILLHUTCHISON
1892 BILLHUTCHISON      CYYOUNG             AMOSRUSIE
1893 AMOSRUSIE          CYYOUNG             TEDBREITENSTEIN
1894 AMOSRUSIE          JOUETTMEEKIN        TEDBREITENSTEIN
1895 PINKHAWLEY         CYYOUNG             KIDNICHOLS
1896 NIGCUPPY           CYYOUNG             tedbreitenstein
1897 KIDNICHOLS         AMOSRUSIE           tedbreitenstein

1898 KIDNICHOLS         CLARKGRIFFITH       JESSETANNEHILL      cyseymour
1899 JESSETANNEHILL     CYYOUNG             joemcginnity        samleever
1900 CYYOUNG            NOODLESHAHN         winmercer           clarkgriffith
1901 CYYOUNG            CHRISTYMATHEWSON    NOODLESHAHN         VICWILLIS
1902 CYYOUNG            RUBEWADDELL         JACKTAYLOR          JOEMCGINNITY
1903 CHRISTYMATHEWSON   CYYOUNG             JOEMCGINNITY        BILLDONOVAN
1904 JACKCHESBRO        RUBEWADDELL         EDDIEPLANK          JOEMCGINNITY
1905 CHRISTYMATHEWSON   RUBEWADDELL         HARRYHOWELL         CYYOUNG
1906 ALORTH             VICWILLIS           THREEFINGERBROWN    docwhite
1907 EDWALSH            CHRISTYMATHEWSON    CYYOUNG             ADDIEJOSS
1908 CHRISTYMATHEWSON   EDWALSH             THREEFINGERBROWN    GEORGEMCQUILLAN
1909 CHRISTYMATHEWSON   FRANKSMITH          THREEFINGERBROWN    ORVALOVERALL
1910 EDWALSH            WALTERJOHNSON       RUSSFORD            JACKCOOMBS
1911 NAPRUCKER          EDWALSH             PETEALEXANDER       WALTERJOHNSON
1912 WALTERJOHNSON      EDWALSH             JOEWOOD             NAPRUCKER
1913 WALTERJOHNSON      BABEADAMS           REBRUSSELL          SLIMSALLEE
1914 WALTERJOHNSON      PETEALEXANDER       DUTCHLEONARD        BILLJAMES2
1915 PETEALEXANDER      WALTERJOHNSON       JEFFTESREAU         GUYMORTON
1916 PETEALEXANDER      WALTERJOHNSON       BABERUTH            BOBSHAWKEY
1917 EDDIECICOTTE       PETEALEXANDER       BABERUTH            JIMBAGBY
1918 WALTERJOHNSON      SCOTTPERRY          BABERUTH            STANCOVELESKI
1919 WALTERJOHNSON      EDDIECICOTTE        STANCOVELESKI       PETEALEXANDER
1920 PETEALEXANDER      STANCOVELESKI       JIMBAGBY            BOBSHAWKEY
1921 REDFABER           URBANSHOCKER        CARLMAYS            SADSAMJONES
1922 REDFABER           URBANSHOCKER        EDDIEROMMEL         HERMANPILLETTE
1923 DOLFLUQUE          GEORGEUHLE          HOWARDEHMKE         EDDIEROMMEL

1924 DAZZYVANCE         HOWARDEHMKE         WALTERJOHNSON       JOESHAUTE           HERBPENNOCK
1925 DOLFLUQUE          PETEDONOHUE         DAZZYVANCE          HERBPENNOCK         epparixey
1926 GEORGEUHLE         TEDLYONS            HALCARLSON          LEFTYGROVE          raykremer
1927 TOMMYTHOMAS        TEDLYONS            DAZZYVANCE          PETEALEXANDER       jessehaines
1928 DAZZYVANCE         BURLEIGHGRIMES      LARRYBENTON         LEFTYGROVE          tommythomas
1929 FIRPOMARBERRY      REDLUCAS            WILLISHUDLIN        WATTYCLARK          wesferrell
1930 LEFTYGROVE         WESFERRELL          LEFTYSTEWART        dazzyvance          tedlyons
1931 LEFTYGROVE         WESFERRELL          RAYBENGE            edbrandt            leftygomez
1932 LEFTYGROVE         CARLHUBBELL         LONWARNEKE          DIZZYDEAN           redlucas
1933 CARLHUBBELL        LONWARNEKE          HALSCHUMACHER       EDBRANDT            leftygrove
1934 DIZZYDEAN          CURTDAVIS           CARLHUBBELL         LEFTYGOMEZ          VANLINGLEMUNGO
1935 WESFERRELL         LEFTYGROVE          DIZZYDEAN           MELHARDER           curtdavis
1936 CARLHUBBELL        LEFTYGROVE          DIZZYDEAN           WESFERRELL          JOHNNYALLEN
1937 LEFTYGOMEZ         LEFTYGROVE          jimturner           redruffign          eldenauker
1938 BILLLEE            GEORGECASTER        REDRUFFING          PAULDERRINGER       bobfeller
1939 BUCKYWALTERS       BOBFELLER           BOBONEWSOM          claudepasseau       billlee
1940 BOBFELLER          CLAUDEPASSEAU       BOBONEWSOM          dutchleonard2       johnnyrigney


Extra pitchers: Not First-Team All-Star, but one of top N players in MLB, or the #5 "First Team All-Star" post 1924.

1871 ALSPALDING
1872 ALSPALDING
1873 
1874 JACKMANNING
1875 
1876 
1877 TOMMYBOND
1878 TERRYLARKIN TOMMYBOND
1879 MONTEWARD
1880 

1881 
1882 JIMWHITNEY STUMPWIEDMAN TIMKEEFE
1883 PUDGALVIN TIMKEEFE
1884 CHARLESRADBOURN GUYHECKER TONYMULLANE MICKEYWELCH JIMMCCORMICK JIMWHITNEY
1885 CHARLIEFERGUSON CHARLESRADBOURN
1886 TOADRAMSEY CHARLIEFERGUSON LADYBALDWIN

1887 CHARLIEFERGUSON TIMKEEFE JIMWHITNEY
1888 
1889 JESSEDURYEA BOBCARUTHERS
1890 BILLHUTCHISON KIDGLEASON BILLYRHINES
1891 SADIEMCMAHON CYYOUNG JOHNCLARKSON
1892 
1893 KIDNICHOLS FRANKKILLEN BRICKYARDKENNEDY
1894 CYYOUNG CLARKGRIFFITH
1895 
1896 
1897 

1898 
1899 
1900 
1901 
1902 NOODLESHAHN
1903 
1904 CYYOUNG
1905 
1906 
1907 
1908 CYYOUNG ADDIEJOSS
1909 
1910 CHRISTYMATHEWSON
1911 CHRISTYMATHEWSON VEANGREGG 
1912 CHRISTYMATHEWSON
1913 TOMSEATON
1914 CLAUDEHENDRIX
1915 
1916 JOEBUSH
1917 WALTERJOHNSON STANCOVELESKI
1918 HIPPOVAUGHN LEFTYTYLER
1919 HIPPOVAUGHN
1920 
1921 BURLEIGHGRIMES
1922 STANCOVELESKI
1923 HOOKSDAUSS 

1924 HERBPENNOCK
1925 epparixey
1926 raykremer
1927 jessehaines
1928 tommythomas
1929 wesferrell
1930 tedlyons
1931 leftygomez
1932 redlucas
1933 leftygrove
1934 VANLINGLEMUNGO     MELHARDER SCHOOLBOYROWE
1935 curtdavis
1936 JOHNNYALLEN
1937 eldenauker
1938 bobfeller
1939 billlee
1940 johnnyrigney
   267. sunnyday2 Posted: July 19, 2005 at 06:00 PM (#1483308)
Hope somebody will tally up the above. As for me, I'm revisiting my (ERA+ - 100) + IP/100) toy. And in keeping with my peak/prime preferences, these are for the pitchers primes. (My ballots also reflect career value and obviously it considers the pitcher's environment, but the following does not include the career part of the toy.)

e.g. Waddell Prime ERA+ 152 (152-100 = 52) and Prime IP 1,772 (1772/100 = 18). 52 + 18 = 70

S. King (4 years) 153 + 1,894 = 73
Devlin (3) 159 + 1,305 = 72
Joss (8) 148 + 2,220 = 70.2

Waddell (6) 152 + 1,772 = 69.8
Reulbach (5) 156 + 1,262 = 69
Lyons (17) 126 _ 3,779 = 64 not yet PHoM thus on the list
W. White (5) 136 + 2,722 = 63
Wood (4) 151 + 975 = 61

Mullane (8) 132 + 3,243 = 58.9 with AA discount
Bond (6) 130 + 2,865 = 58.6
Cicotte (12) 129 + 2,905 = 58.01
Vaughan (6) 138 + 2,000 = 58.00
Gomez (8) 138 + 1,977 = 57.8
Griffith (6) 135 + 2,221 = 57.21
Welch (7) 126 + 3,121 = 57.21
Hahn (6) 138 + 1,910 = 57.1
Bridges (10) 134 + 2,284 = 56.8 no WWII bonus
Luque (5) 141 + 1,397 = 55.0
McCormick (5) 128 + 2,689 = 54.9

The best careers FYI include Devlin with his flukey 3 year career at 72 and Mickey Welch (113 + 4,802 = 61). More recently Joss and Waddell both at 65, Joe Wood at 60, Lyons at 60 and Rixey at 61.

Thus (because they make both the career and primje lists) Waddell, Lyons and Joss are my top 3 rated ML pitchers. It's also my juddgment that this exercise is a positive one for Griffith and Cicotte.
   268. jimd Posted: July 19, 2005 at 08:15 PM (#1483660)
Actually, I did tabulate them on the 1956 discussion thread, but it makes sense to put the results here, too.

********

Pitcher counts follow, but also note that Ruth qualified 3 additional times as a pitcher (16 total), and Ward also qualifies twice as a pitcher (making 4 total).

8+ (100% PosPlayers; 100% Pitchers): 15 Cy Young; 11 Walter Johnson; 9 Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove; 8 Pete Alexander

6-5 (80% PosPlayers; 75% Pitchers): 6 Amos Rusie; 5 Al Spalding, Jim Whitney, Kid Nichols, Ed Walsh, Stan Coveleski, Dazzy Vance, Wes Ferrell

4 (50% PosPlayers; 67% Pitchers): Charles Radbourn, John Clarkson, Ted Breitenstein, Joe McGinnity, Carl Hubbell, Dizzy Dean

3 (25% PosPlayers; 35% Pitchers): Tommy Bond, Pud Galvin, Tim Keefe, Charlie Ferguson, Bob Caruthers, Charlie Buffinton, Bill Hutchison, Clark Griffith, Noodles Hahn, Rube Waddell, 3Finger Brown, (Babe Ruth), Ted Lyons, Lefty Gomez, Bob Feller (A)

2 (5% PosPlayers; 3% Pitchers): Jim Devlin, (Monte Ward), Jim McCormick, Matt Kilroy, Silver King, Jesse Tannehill, Vic Willis, Addie Joss, Nap Rucker, Eddie Cicotte, Hippo Vaughn, Bob Shawkey, Jim Bagby, Burleigh Grimes, Red Faber, Urban Shocker, Eddie Rommel, Howard Ehmke, Dolf Luque, Herb Pennock, George Uhle, Tommy Thomas, Red Lucas, Ed Brandt, Lon Warneke, Mel Harder, Curt Davis, Red Ruffing, Bill Lee (A), Bobo Newsom (A), Claude Passeau (A)

No Major-league position player HoMers with less than 2 yrs. "WARP Best at Position"

Only one pitcher HOMer with less than 2yrs "WARP Best at Position": Eddie Plank.
   269. KJOK Posted: January 09, 2007 at 11:39 PM (#2277188)
Reliever JAWS - From BaseballProspectus:

I wanted to present an expanded list of the Reliever Adjusted JAWS rankings from today’s article on the ballot’s pitchers. This list is somewhat provisional as it only goes back to 1960 pitchers whose careers include pre-1960 seasons are designated with an asterisk). It includes every pitcher I could cull with a RAJAWS above 50.0, but in order to be flagged a pitcher either had to rank in the top 50 JAWS scores among pitchers who accumulated more than half their WARP in relief (and thus show up as a reliever in my master JAWS file) or have 25.0 career Reliever Expected Wins Added (WXRL), so some may have slipped through the cracks. The formula for RAJAWS is (JAWS + 0.5*WXRL), where JAWS is a the average of a pitcher’s career WARP3 (subject to an adjustment for AL pitchers in the DH era) and seven best season WARP3.

NAME              Career   Peak   JAWS   WXRL   RAJAWS
Dennis Eckersley   120.7   54.2   87.5   35.0   105.0
Mariano Rivera      84.8   60.0   72.4   59.1   101.9
Rich Gossage        87.9   55.2   71.6   54.0    98.5
Trevor Hoffman      77.1   49.3   63.2   59.7    93.0
Hoyt Wilhelm        96.7   47.9   72.3   33.1    88.9*
Lee Smith           82.3   46.5   64.4   47.4    88.1
Rollie Fingers      80.0   49.7   64.9   46.1    87.9
John Franco         80.0   40.3   60.2   45.1    82.8
Tom Gordon          80.6   44.6   62.6   32.4    78.8
Billy Wagner        61.2   48.8   55.0   41.4    75.7
Doug Jones          66.1   48.2   57.2   33.1    73.8
Roberto Hernandez   67.8   46.8   57.3   29.3    71.9
Bruce Sutter        58.0   46.6   52.3   37.6    71.1
Lindy McDaniel      70.0   43.3   56.7   27.0    70.2*
John Wetteland      58.1   46.0   52.1   35.4    69.8
Tom Henke           59.6   42.4   51.0   36.9    69.4
Mike Marshall       62.6   52.2   57.4   23.6    69.2
Tug McGraw          57.8   37.1   47.5   39.9    67.4
Randy Myers         55.7   40.0   47.9   39.0    67.4
Dan Quisenberry     52.9   46.5   49.7   34.0    66.7
Stu Miller          61.6   42.8   52.2   28.9    66.6*
Kent Tekulve        62.7   39.0   50.9   30.7    66.2
Robb Nen            54.2   46.0   50.1   32.0    66.1
Jesse Orosco        61.4   36.9   49.2   33.5    66.0
Armando Benitez     52.1   40.8   46.5   38.4    65.7
Jose Mesa           59.8   40.2   50.0   29.5    64.7
John Hiller         59.4   48.0   53.7   21.9    64.6
Jeff Montgomery     56.9   43.5   50.2   28.7    64.5
Jeff Reardon        60.5   35.6   48.1   31.4    63.8
Dave Righetti       58.1   43.5   50.8   25.9    63.8
Sparky Lyle         59.3   39.7   49.5   27.7    63.3
Troy Percival       49.7   38.2   44.0   37.5    62.8
Keith Foulke        46.4   42.8   44.6   35.4    62.3
Todd Jones          48.9   34.7   41.8   36.4    60.0
Mike Jackson        53.6   32.2   42.9   34.0    59.9
Bob Wickman         53.2   37.3   45.3   28.4    59.5
Gene Garber         59.4   37.2   48.3   21.2    58.9
Ron Perranoski      45.4   39.2   42.3   26.6    55.6
Roy Face            56.8   38.5   47.7   15.8    55.5*
Ugueth Urbina       46.4   38.8   42.6   25.1    55.2
Rod Beck            44.6   34.7   39.7   27.4    53.4
Gary LaVelle        49.2   37.1   43.2   18.9    52.6
Steve Bedrosian     45.6   33.3   39.5   25.3    52.2
Todd Worrell        41.4   36.3   38.9   26.4    52.1
Greg Minton         42.2   33.4   37.8   28.1    51.8
Jeff Shaw           41.0   36.0   38.5   25.9    51.4
Mike Timlin         53.3   32.1   42.7   17.0    51.2
Don McMahon         52.8   32.8   42.8   16.6    51.1*
Clay Carroll        44.9   33.8   39.4   22.7    50.7
   270. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 10, 2007 at 04:11 AM (#2277357)
What is the JAWS formula - I wouldn't mind applying it to the WAR I use for pitchers as another measure for the people that like to place more weight on peak than Pennants Added does; if it isn't a lot of trouble . . .
   271. KJOK Posted: January 10, 2007 at 08:21 PM (#2277805)
Joe - as it says above in the post:

"JAWS is a the average of a pitcher’s career WARP3 (subject to an adjustment for AL pitchers
in the DH era) and seven best season WARP3."
   272. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 02:45 AM (#2278108)
What adjustment would you make for AL pitchers in the DH era? I don't think that makes any sense.

AL hitters need the adjustment, not AL pitchers.
   273. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 02:47 AM (#2278109)
Anyone know what's screwing up this page width wise? I can fix it, but I can't figure it out . . .
   274. Paul Wendt Posted: January 11, 2007 at 04:16 AM (#2278158)
Anyone know what's screwing up this page width wise? I can fix it, but I can't figure it out . . .

Try a carriage return in the middle of the first pre-formatted line in KJOK #269
   275. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 07:00 AM (#2278226)
I ran JAWS on my pitcher sheet (which is finally updated with the new DERA numbers, ugh, lost an entire night there), and the numbers are interesting - they come out very similar to Pennants Added, but nudge the peak guys up a little and the career guys down a little.

Among pitchers I've calculated so far, Jack Quinn, for example, is #26 among post-1893 SP in Pennants Added, but drops to #33 in JAWS. In the system Bill James uses in the NHBA he's #103.

Or on the other extreme, Ed Walsh. Walsh is #28 in PA, but moves up to #18 in JAWS. In the Bill James system he's #3. Sandy Koufax is similar, #32 in Pennants Added, #27 in JAWS, #5 by the James system.

I'll throw a few random ones out there.

Tommy John, #36 PA, #42 JAWS, #129 James.

Urban Shocker, who we are missing the boat on, #39, #38, #30.

Dave Stieb who will be joining us shortly, #42, #39, #36. His twin, Bucky Walters is #44, #40, #27. Jack Morris, who stayed on the ballot while Stieb fell of is #87, #86, #132.

Billy Pierce, near the bottom of our electees, #41, #41, #54.

Don Sutton, #19, #25, #81.

Dizzy Dean, #69, #48, #16.

But he might not even be the best Dizzy. Dizzy Trout is #51, #56, #35

The worst we've elected, either Iron Man McGinnity #75, #63, #33 or Bob Lemon, #62, #50, #41 or Three-Finger Brown #57, #52, #39 or Clark Griffith #50, #49, #49.

The worst in the Hall of Fame? Rube Marquard, #142, #141, #150. Although the James rankings say Jessie Haines, #128, #146, #190. Catfish is easily the worst the writers picked, #119, #116, #147.
   276. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 07:09 AM (#2278228)
Thanks Paul, fixed it!
   277. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 09:20 AM (#2278269)
BTW, for kicks, and to see if my system is going to be OK with modern relievers and starters, I ran Clemens and Rivera through.

Clemens comes out 2nd so far, behind Walter Johnson and ahead of everyone else, but just barely ahead of Cy Young and Pete Alexander.

Rivera is currently #4 on the reliever list, behind Wilhelm, Goose and Fingers. He'll pass Fingers if he doesn't get hurt in 2007.

That's pretty exciting for me, because I was very nervous about how the modern closers would look, but it seems like my system balances their increased effectiveness over the previous generation with their lack of innings pretty well. Cool!
   278. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:07 AM (#2278279)
Bert Blyleven, #13, #14, #40 - so the James system picks on the (relative) lack of a peak that his detractors cite when comparing him to the big guns like Carlton and Niekro.

And to fuel some discussion, Jim Palmer is #35, #35 and #45 :-)
   279. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:12 AM (#2278281)
By the way, I see Blyleven as basically Gaylord Perry, with Perry's main advantage being his 1972 compared to Blyleven's 1973.
   280. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:33 AM (#2278288)
Nolan Ryan, #15, #16, #48 . . .
   281. jimd Posted: January 11, 2007 at 10:38 PM (#2278845)
The worst we've elected, either Iron Man McGinnity #75, #63, #33 or Bob Lemon, #62, #50, #41 or Three-Finger Brown #57, #52, #39 or Clark Griffith #50, #49, #49.

I believe our current count is 53 pitchers, including 8 NeLers.

If we were to elect 30% pitchers (as some have advocated), we should have about 56 pitchers now out of 186 HOMers, and 69 pitchers out of 231 HOMers at the end of 2007.

the James system picks on the (relative) lack of a peak

James' system from the NewHA is very strongly peak oriented.
   282. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:13 PM (#2278877)
In this election or the next we'll be tacking on Carlton and Niekro out of six electees. So that will get us around 55/192 or 28.6% pitchers, about 2.6 pitchers short. Maybe that .6 is Ward + Ruth? If Sutton wins a plaque in 1994 we'd be at 29.1%.

I didn't realize we'd be at 231 HOMers by 2007. I thought it was like 220 for some reason....
   283. KJOK Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:21 PM (#2278887)
What adjustment would you make for AL pitchers in the DH era? I don't think that makes any sense.

AL hitters need the adjustment, not AL pitchers.


"On the advice of WARP creator Clay Davenport, the pitching portion of this year's edition of JAWS includes a downward adjustment for pitchers in the AL after 1973 to counteract the negative hitting contributions of their non-DH brethren. This prevents the system from overly favoring recent AL pitchers.."
   284. jimd Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:34 PM (#2278898)
Maybe that .6 is Ward + Ruth?

How much you deducting for Caruthers, Rogan, and Dihigo? ;-)
   285. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 11, 2007 at 11:35 PM (#2278899)
How much you deducting for Caruthers, Rogan, and Dihigo? ;-)

Not enough! ;~)
   286. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:02 AM (#2279092)
On the advice of WARP creator Clay Davenport, the pitching portion of this year's edition of JAWS includes a downward adjustment for pitchers in the AL after 1973 to counteract the negative hitting contributions of their non-DH brethren. This prevents the system from overly favoring recent AL pitchers.."


That doesn't make any sense - so he's saying WARP penalizes pitchers that hit too much? WOW, that's a pretty major mistake in WARP.

He should be comparing an NL pitcher's hitting to the average NL pitcher's hitting. Then the league as a whole would wash to zero, and all AL pitchers would be zero and no adjustment would be necessary. That's how I handle it, and it works fine. I don't understand how he could do it any differently.

For pitchers, replacement level hitting is the league average pitcher's hitting, because pitchers aren't selected for their ability to hit. It'd be much better if WARP worked that way, I always suspected that was a problem with WARP, glad to have it confirmed.
   287. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 05:04 AM (#2279094)
BTW, what he should be doing is adjusting NL pitchers (and all pre-1973 pitchers) up, not AL pitchers down. Of course this adjustment would have to be scaled for each season, since pitchers hit a lot further below average now than they used to.

But overall, this tells me he's underrating all pitchers, compared to position players. Just something to keep in mind.
   288. jimd Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:32 PM (#2279547)
he's saying WARP penalizes pitchers that hit too much?

No Joe. NL pitchers have to hit, and almost all of them have negative BRAR. AL pitchers don't, and get 0 BRAR of course. Both situations are consistent within the context of their own leagues (WARP1). So is the handling of the DH in WARP1 for same-league comparison.

The problems come when you attempt to make cross-league comparisons. The All-Time BRAR adjustments that he makes handle the DH just fine (WARP2). They project what a hitter would hit in the All-Time context and produce a value for that. They don't work for the AL pitchers, because they have to hit in the All-Time context, but there is no batting data for them. They just get a 0. This overrates the AL pitchers as a group because most of them would be negative if they hit like their NL brethren. One could make them all average-hitters-for-a-pitcher, but that penalizes those that could hit better than that, given the chance. (This is the downward adjustment mentioned above.)

There really is no good solution for this. (Win Shares makes no attempt, stopping at the WARP1 level.)
   289. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 12, 2007 at 08:37 PM (#2279552)
There really is no good solution for this.


Sure there is, as I said in post #286, use RARP instead of BRAR for pitchers.
   290. Paul Wendt Posted: January 14, 2007 at 02:50 AM (#2280236)
The worst we've elected, either Iron Man McGinnity #75, #63, #33 or Bob Lemon, #62, #50, #41 or Three-Finger Brown #57, #52, #39 or Clark Griffith #50, #49, #49.

So Joe McGinnity is the very worst HOM pitcher as measured by Pennants Added and JAWS, while Bill James plunks for Clark Griffith.

Clark Griffith should be one of the weakest, since he was elected so slowly, and partly by a favorable view of his bad career timing --trying to make it during the contraction of 1890-1892.

For the newcomers, there is a lot on Mordecai "Overrated" Brown scattered on this site, including some before his election. That he is a plausible candidate to be the very worst HOM pitcher is astonishing to me.

Bob Lemon? Do the three systems all credit his batting? Probably, as none puts Wes Ferrell or Bob Caruthers near the "top".
   291. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 18, 2007 at 01:31 PM (#2282428)
Need to clarify Paul - that's Bill James' NHBA scoring system, applied to my version of WAR. And JAWS scoring system, applied to my WAR.

Lemon's (and all pitchers') batting is credited.
   292. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 18, 2007 at 01:33 PM (#2282429)
BTW, #289 should say RCAP (Runs Created Above Position average), not RARP (Runs Above Replacement at Position).
   293. Paul Wendt Posted: January 18, 2007 at 08:54 PM (#2282690)
that's Bill James' NHBA scoring system, applied to my version of WAR. And JAWS scoring system, applied to my WAR.

Thanks. I'm only paying half attention.
   294. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:11 PM (#2283856)
Brent #234-35
Pitcher workload time series: percent of team innings pitched by the league 5th-best in innings

Brent %, Wendt comment [please pronounce this correctly]
1892 33.9 up to 154 games, from 140
1893 33.2 down to 132 games
1894 34.9
1895 32.3
1896 32.2
1897 29.3
1898 27.1 up to 154 games
1899 28.3
1900 25.9 down to 140 games
........ NL .. AL
1901 27.3 27.4
1902 25.3 25.4
1903 25.2 26.8
1904 26.0 27.0 up to 154 games
1905 24.2 23.3
1906 23.0 22.3
. . .
Several writers including, Bill James, have emphasized a drop in pitcher workloads in 1893 when the 60 ft. 6 inch distance was adopted. However by looking at the IP as a percentage of the team's, we see that the decline in IP that year was actually due to the shorter 132 game schedule.

Yes
The percentage workload didn't drop until 1896-98 when the number of games went back up and teams responded by adding a fourth starter.

The largest one-year decrease in pitcher workload is 1896-97 and the 154-game schedule was adopted 1897-98. The share of team workload decreased slightly in '98 and '99, net, but decreased further and faster when the 140-game schedule was restored for the 1900-1903 seasons.

I don't understand the response to 154 games, finally instituted in 1904, but that doesn't stop me from describing it. During 1904 McGraw and Griffith in New York led in working their ace pitchers very hard; beginning in 1905 McGraw and Griffith led in the introduction of relief pitching.
   295. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:18 PM (#2283861)
Whoa! 11:11 at the top of the board
Comment 111 in second place

Brent, Are you one of the Brents I know by full name? I would like to exchange email about using your workload statistic. I don't use the Baseball Think Factory message service.
Paul Wendt .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
   296. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:26 PM (#2283869)
(?)In 1993 Ballot, EricC(?) wist a database that distinguishes innings and runs by starting and relief roles, by pitcher-season. How much have some of us done along those lines. Joe Dimino, perhaps?

Pete Palmer has the relief pitcher data in his database, probably input by hand from the 1969 first Baseball Encyclopedia. He used it to produce the Relief Register in TB3 but the scope of that print data is pitchers with something like 500 career relief innings.
   297. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 05:47 PM (#2283878)
Brent #258
IP of 5th highest pitcher in IP, 1930-1959
. . .
In contrast to the data for 1876-1929, for this period the data are really stable without any trends. Over most of the period, the best pitchers would work 240 to 270 innings, or between 17 to 20 percent of their team's total IP.


Here is the count of high and low magnitudes by decade, relative to that 240-270 IP norm. This suggests stability no earlier than the 1940s

1920s, 30s, 40s, 50s
>270: 9 7 2 3 ; of 20 data points during each decade
<240: 0 1 4 4
   298. Brent Posted: January 21, 2007 at 07:20 PM (#2283912)
Paul,

It was surprising to get a comment on a post that's 2-1/2 years old. For the 1924-40 period, I probably should have described the range as 250-280 IP. IOW, the 1925-60 period continued the trend of lower work loads, but only very gradually.

I've sent you an email regarding your other request.
   299. Paul Wendt Posted: January 21, 2007 at 07:44 PM (#2283925)
How time flies.
The entire current page is vulnerable, no matter how long a timespan it covers.
   300. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 22, 2007 at 12:51 PM (#2284262)
Paul, I am using the 1969 MacMillan and I do input the innings relieved, decisions, etc. by hand. I've fully accounted for it. Eddie Rommel, Jack Quinn and 3-Finger Brown are a few of the guys that benefit most from considering leverage in their records.
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