Well, the HoF doesn't elect by position.

No, but doesn't everybody in baseball think about players by position?

Ranking within position should not be an alternative to ranking players within the groups created by the Hall of Fame's rules. It makes good, practical sense to group the players by their categories.

I am suggesting that positional rankings are the most straightforward route to supplementing a rank ordering of HoMers-not-HoFers in each of the HoF player pools. Having positional rankings would establish an easily understood contextual and comparative value for each player in the HoM. It's an alternative to rank-ordering (or placing in tiers) every player in the HoM. And a more

I'm actually a bit surprised, sunnyday, that you would doubt the utility of positional lists, since you use them all the time, yes?

Well, it depends on our goal. But I'm not sure that anything is going to happen, even if we agreed on what it would be, which we don't.

Thinking a bit about djrelays' scheme, I think it should be tweaked.

Group 1 - Current BBWAA players. djr has the six currently on the ballot (which could be 5 or 4 by the time the BBWAA 2008 results are in). This makes for too small a group. I would definitely add the 5% Rule victims retired since 1990. These players are still under BBWAA jurisdiction and could theoretically be reinstated to their ballot. (Thinking wishfully, our advocacy for them could be an impetus for reinstatement.) That adds these 7 players: Will Clark, Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez, Willie Randolph, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb, Lou Whitaker. This makes Group 1 no more than 13 players in size.

Group 2 – Modern VC players. 1988 retirees Graig Nettles and Ted Simmons are now in their final year under BBWAA control; Darrell Evans is done after the 2009 election, so I think we should pass these three and keep them in Group 2. (In effect, for Nettles, Simmons and Evans we would be giving them a preemptive ranking for the 2011 VC election.) Along with these nine: Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Bill Freehan, Bobby Grich, Minnie Minoso, Billy Pierce, Ron Santo, Joe Torre, Jimmy Wynn. This gives Group 2 a total of 12 players.

Group 3 - Oldtime VC players. We remove Pike; his NA years don't count, so he's ineligible, having less than ten years in "MLB". We keep Charlie Bennett, Cupid Childs, Bill Dahlen, Wes Ferrell, Jack Glasscock, Joe Gordon, George Gore, Heinie Groh, Stan Hack, Paul Hines, Charlie Keller, Sherry Magee, Hardy Richardson, Jimmy Sheckard, Joe Start, Ezra Sutton, Deacon White, Pete Browning, Bob Caruthers, Charley Jones and Harry Stovey. This gives Group 3 a total of 21 players.

Group 4 - Players not being considered (Negro leaguers and pre-NL stars). I thnk this should include Lip Pike, Ross Barnes, John Beckwith, Grant Johnson, Dick Lundy, Cal McVey, Dobie Moore, Alejandro Oms, Dickey Pearce and Quincy Trouppe. This gives Group 4 a total of 10 players.

I recommend we don't vote on Pete Rose and Joe Jackson. Nobody doubts they were HOF-quality players who would rank near the top of any listing. Along with this, the Hall has no plans to consider them anytime soon. Leave them aside for this voting, their presence would be a distraction, as always.

With the groups DanG is proposing, which seem reasonable to me, would there be any need to do anything more complicated for the voting than a single ballot, rank ordered and weighted according to our current system, probably without "elect me" bonuses at the top, and shortening or extending the ballot as needed to fit the number of players?

The main shortcoming of our current voting system for generating a reliable rank order is that it doesn't provide enough information about the support for candidates that don't make the ballot. Since everyone would be on each ballot, that wouldn't be an issue.

I mean, we could have shorter ballots to leave people off and create an on-ballot bonus, elect-me bonuses at the top, and multiple run-offs, but would that produce more reliable results than a single rank order ballot that includes all candidates?

People who know more voting theory than I do, please correct my misapprehensions!

19. DanG Posted: December 04, 2007 at 10:38 AM (#2633713)

> I don't like the idea of tiering all that much either.


Call it something else then.

The idea is to give context to our rankings. Ranking the HoMers-not-HOFers as an isolated exercise leaves them hanging in space; there's no point of reference to those actually in the Hall. Calling a player "the best" means nothing. Relative to what? He's "the best" player in his class. How good is that? Is it Mays and Aaron good? Is it Manush and Sam Rice good? Is it Pafko and Northrup good? If we don't tell them they won't know.

The main point is that for DanG the main point is influencing HOF voters; indirectly influencing HOF membership. . . .
and for the first time in a while he seems to have won a point

--
dj
Which of the NA, AA, UA, PL or FL does MLB consider a "major league?"

All but the first.

and for the first time in a while he seems to have won a point

I keep pitching my best stuff; they keep knocking it out of the park.

I think Dan's groupings (#48) based on djrelays idea (#30) make sense.

I would think in this case, going with a straight rank order ballot also makes sense. At most we'll be ranking 21 players in any group.

Addressing this:

But I'm not sure that anything is going to happen, even if we agreed on what it would be, which we don't.

I don't know why you'd say that, but how is this for a 'discussion/schedule'?

1/14-1/20 - discuss Group 1 (BBWAA)
1/21-1/28 - vote Group 1

1/28-2/3 - discuss Group 2 (Modern VC)
2/4-2/11 - vote Group 2

2/11-2/17 - discuss Group 3 (Pre WWII VC)
2/18-2/25 - vote Group 3

2/25-3/2 - discuss Group 4 (Currently left out)
3/3-3/10 - vote Group 4

That finishes us up at the beginning of Spring Training and just in time for the NCAA Tournament :-)

After that, we could discuss ranking by position:

3/17-3/23 - determine position eligiblity

3/24-4/7 - catchers

4/7-4/21 - first basemen

4/21-5/5 - second basemen

5/5-5/19 - third basemen

5/19-6/2 - shortstops

6/2-6/16 - left fielders

6/16-6/30 - centerfielders (SABR weekend, but it's during voting not discussion, so should be OK)

6/30-7/14 - right fielders

7/14-7/28 - pre-1893 pitchers

7/28-8/11 - modern (post-1893) starting pitchers

8/11-8/25 - relief pitchers

How does that look as a plan?

I would think in this case, going with a straight rank order ballot also makes sense. At most we'll be ranking 21 players in any group.

If anyone disagrees, I'm all ears.

Schedule looks good. Now we need to determine a point system for the ballots. Also, when would the positional voting be conducted?

Voting theory says rank everyone and forget the elect-me bonuses. The errors in voting will be due to the consideration set - there are other non-HoM who are eligible in this group that might be ranked higher if we threw them in (players currently in the top 10 returnees).

Not that I'm an expert, but I did read Saari's book Geometry of Voting.

I'll second the groups, voting and schedule.

when would the positional voting be conducted?

Second half of the periods above. I got lazy and didn't feel like typing two sets of dates.

I would think just straight line ballot, rank everyone from 1-x. No elect me bonus.

But if the 'voting theory' people have a better idea, I'm definitely all ears.

Actually, the largest group is modern starting pitchers. I think there are 52 or 53 . . . 62 - 6 19th Century and 3 or 4 relievers. I'd count Eck as a reliever, he wasn't going in as a starter though that value helps, but if he'd been a reliever his entire career he probably would have.

Anyway my point is that we take the largest group and scale the points for all groups so that in the end the point totals are all on the same scale and the totals can be compared across positions.

Not sure if anyone finds that of any value, but I think it'd be better to do it than not, if it's easy.

But I guess that would only work if we had the same number of voters for each election. It probably isn't worth the trouble, someone could always go back and figure it retroactively or something if we deem it of value.

This all looks pretty good.
The dividing by position seems to make the OF totals manageable.

I wonder if there should be a 3rd tier for SPs, though?
maybe pre-1893, post-1893 to WW II, and post-WW II to current.

I like the proposal as finally outlined by the Commish; I think just ranking all the playters in the group with no bonuses produces the fairest and most complete result. Preevts the possibility of someone ranked high by a small group sliding in on a splintered ballot -- if everybody else has the guy 20 out of 21, he won't make it. 4 groups, one vote each, sorted by eligibility status seems manageable and indeed optimal.

Oh and I don't like splitting by position, and don't think it accomplishes much. This is not in any way necessarily a balanced grouping, because it's the difference between two differently balanced groupings.

Well, I think the two sets of votes are doing very separate things.

The first set applies specifically to making the Hall of Fame.

The second set is "water cooler stuff" - we're telling people who we think is better, Johnny Bench or Yogi Berra, etc. It also has a secondary effect of showing where the non-HOFers rank vs the favored sons.

Yes?

OK, I'm starting to get jazzed up about this project!

A couple more ideas to pitch:

1) The HOF voter can look at our results and say [haughty tone]"So what! Their criteria is different from ours. We're considering the whole of the man, more than mere numbers."[/ht]

Well, hells bells--we can nip this in the bud. Let's use HOF criteria for these elections: "voting shall be based upon the individual's record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game.” I don't think it would be that hard for us to do and it would be fun to explore other sides of the players we've elected.

2) To further bring those HOF voters into our circle, lets toss some of their favorite candidates into these elections. Pick Five, the five non-HoMers getting the best support in their voting. For Group 1 (based on 2007 BW election) that's Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Tommy John and Dave Concepcion. For Group 2 (based on 2007 VC election) it's Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva, Maury Wills and Don Newcombe. For Group 3 (based on 2007 VC election) it's Lefty O'Doul, Mickey Vernon, Cecil Travis, Marty Marion and Carl Mays. Again, it'll be fun to touch on the intangibles of these guys, as well as an opportunity to debunk them as legitimate Hall candidates.

39. DanG Posted: December 04, 2007 at 02:21 PM (#2634200)
97.7 - Tim Raines (2008)
94.4 - Deacon White (1898)
94.0 - Paul Hines (1898)
93.4 - Bert Blyleven (1998)
92.3 - Pete Rose (1993)
88.9 - Bill Dahlen (1915)
87.7 - Ron Santo (1980)
86.0 - Alan Trammell (2002)
85.9 - Mark McGwire* (2007)
82.4 - Jack Glasscock (1904)
79.5 - George Gore (1898)
77.5 - Lou Whitaker (2001)
75.5 - Will Clark (2006)
75.6 - Ezra Sutton (1908)
74.7 - Rich Gossage (2000)
74.4 - Joe Jackson (1927)
73.5 - Cal McVey (1914)
72.5 - Joe Start (1912)
68.9 - Dick Allen (1983)
68.4 - Ross Barnes (1898)
67.1 - Grant Johnson (1925)
65.2 - Bobby Grich (1992)
64.9 - Heinie Groh (1938)
63.2 - Harry Stovey (1916)
61.6 - Jimmy Sheckard (1930)
60.9 - Charlie Bennett (1921)
60.2 - Sherry Magee (1926)
59.9 - Joe Torre (1984)
58.0 - John Beckwith (1957)
56.6 - Bob Caruthers (1930)
53.0 - Dickey Pearce (1931)
49.8 - Keith Hernandez (1996)
48.6 - Stan Hack (1958)
43.6 - Darrell Evans (1995)
43.0 - Bill Freehan (1985)
42.6 - Dwight Evans (1997)
41.8 - Joe Gordon (1976)
41.3 - Wes Ferrell (1964)
40.5 - Lip Pike (1940)
39.1 - Billy Pierce (1987)
36.2 - Quincy Trouppe (1995)
35.5 - Cupid Childs (1988)
35.1 - Ken Boyer (1991)
34.7 - Minnie Minoso (1987)
34.2 - Charlie Keller (1996)
32.4 - Dick Lundy (2008)
31.7 - Jimmy Wynn (1996)
29.9 - Dobie Moore (1991)
28.7 - Bret Saberhagen (2008)
28.2 - Willie Randolph (2001)
28.1 - Pete Browning (2005)
26.7 - Dave Stieb (2002))
25.3 - Alejandro Oms (2006)
25.2 - Andre Dawson (2005)
25.1 - Graig Nettles (2006)
25.0 - Jake Beckley (1998)
24.9 - Charley Jones (2003)

Howie, it's a smaller group, but for SPs, what would you (or anyone else) think of:

pre-1893
1893-1925
1925-present

I realize the groups aren't even, but pitching significantly changed in the early 1920s, I don't know how much it really has since then. Those would be logical groups to me at least.

For the positional rankings, are we only ranking the HoMers or are we ranking the best ever at the position in our estimation? And, assuming the latter, are we including the active and recently retired players or only the HoM-eligible?

FWIW, I would vote for including as many folks as possible--certainly the HoM-eligible and probably everybody.

It seems that the discussion is going down two paths.

1. It's about the HoF.
2. It's about us.

Could we answer that one? Then the rest might fall into place. Right now, it's not.

If we're ranking the players of any group from 1-N, we don't need to convert to points. It's mathematically equivalent to just calculate an average ballot ranking, and leave it that way -- e.g. Catchers: JGibson 1.12 Berra 2.55 Bench 2.62 etc. (which also may make the results easier to understand for outsiders). Only if we want to give extra weight to being on the top-of-the-ballot or getting-on-the-ballot (like on the HOM ballot) do we need to convert everything to a point system.

Sunnyday,

The project is by definition about the HoF: Joe has built that into the groundrules.

The project is necessarily also about us, since we are the ones who are doing it, and we are the ones who have to decide what kind of approach will make the results reliable and useful.

We have to work through each proposal for how to proceed in light of both realities.

1. It's about the HoF.
2. It's about us.

Could we answer that one?

It's no secret my interest is #1. IMO, "we" should be about #1, outward looking.

Which way do you think this should aim, Marc?

Positional Rankings include everyone.

Marc, I don't understand what you are asking.

I think it's about both. I don't see them as mutually exclusive. First we rank the HoM not HoF. Then we rank the HoM by position - where is the disconnect?

Some reactions to recent proposals:

1) Dan G's proposal that we use the HoF's criteria. I do not favor this. We are the Hall of Merit electorate. Our conclusions are meaningful because our criteria are clear and consistent. I'd rather have results that an interested HoF voter could then factor into whatever blender of "integrity, sportsmanship, and character" influences their thinking. We _will_ be dealing with two players whose perceived lack of "integrity, sportsmanship, and character" has significantly affected their standing with the HoF electorate: Dick Allen and John Beckwith. We actually talked a lot about those matters, and looked into the historical record in both cases. If either of them came out as the top-ranked candidate from one pool or another, we could, if we decided to prepare a brief to send to an HoF committee, as we did with the Negro League committee, we could address our findings on those controversial issues in the brief. I think we are better off dealing with those matters in the context of our established criteria, rather than arguing over what the HoF's criteria really mean and how much weight to give them.

2) Dan G's proposal that we bring HoF favored candidates into the pool. I do not favor this, either. The Hall of Merit project to date has had the purpose of distinguishing the players who should be in a Hall of Fame with reasonably consistent standards of excellence. We have already made the judgment that these players are to be preferred, as of our understanding at the present time of baseball history and how value is created in the game of baseball. I think we should stand by that judgment and keep the initial focus on players we have elected. If we were not going to do positional rankings or some other broader ranking, it might be more meaningful to include other eligibles. But I like the idea of keeping the initial rankings focus on elected Hall-of-Meriters.

3) Andrew Siegel's proposal that we make all players eligible for the positional rankings. I am ambivalent about this. It would certainly make the process more complicated and make designing the voting system more complicated. On the other hand, it would give us more meaningful lists in the end, though lists that might conflict with HoM choices on some points, depending on who votes and what the voting system is. If we open the pool, we would also need to decide how far down in the rankings we should go: 20? 25? 30? Number of players inducted into the HoM at that position? Number of players inducted + 5? If our judgment has been generally good, we ought to have the top N players at each position already in the HoM, and I am pretty comfortable a) relying on that judgment (despite an itch to rank Sam Thompson down around 35 among right fielders . . . ) and b) leaving active or recently retired players out of the picture for now. But if people _like_ the positional rankings better with an open pool, that consideration would far outweigh my reservations about complicating the process!

I think it's about both. I don't see them as mutually exclusive. First we rank the HoM not HoF. Then we rank the HoM by position - where is the disconnect?

Looks good to me!

Chris, you just came out firmly on the side of #2 in Marc's question. You would limit the usefulness of the ranking project in order to stay consistent with how we do things here.

Dan G's proposal that we bring HoF favored candidates into the pool. I do not favor this, either.

I agree.

Andrew Siegel's proposal that we make all players eligible for the positional rankings.

I strongly disagree. If the players eligible were better than a Hall of Merit player, they should be in the Hall of Merit.

This would open the whole timelining can of worms again, etc..

I'm strongly in favor of only dealing with players we've elected to the Hall of Merit in this extension project.

Using the HOF criteria seems like a rabbit hole to me.
"Contributions to the game" - suddenly managing and broadcasting come into play?

We tried to pick the best 230+ best players, period.
Not the "230 guys we'd pick if only we'd have started out from the beginning using the same criteria as the Hall."

I don't want non-HOMers, either.

But should we be voting on "best ever" with a group that includes all the HOMers and HOFers? That might make sense. Not insisting on it, though. But it's a little different if Thompson at least beats out ALL the dumb HOF choices, compared to being middle of the pack even among that shaky bunch.

Comments:

I like Joe's schedule from #52.

Chris's #70 (and DanG and Andrew by extension):
I agree with point 1. The Hall of Merit should its own standards.
I agree with point 2.
Thoughts about point 3. I lean toward restricting it to ranking the HOM players at various positions, but I also like the idea (Howie's) of including the HOF/nonHOM players at each position also.

2 cents

Knocked out of the park again!

OK, we'll just keep this in our little corner. We won't try to build bridges between our work and that museum in upstate New York. They'll do their thing and we'll do ours.

Yes, our standards are different and BETTER than theirs, no question. But our criteria will never be theirs, so we have to play their game in order to make meaningful comparisons. It's like we're looking to avoid really arguing their selections, because we refuse to ever consider evaluating players using the same criteria.

And it's not only with the HOF and its voters, it's to the entire baseball community. There's always that BUT. "Yeah, your guys were great, BUT you can't really say they belong in the Hall because your criteria are different."

Well, I'd like to say our guys belong in the Hall. I'd like to show that a holistic look at our guys leaves them miles ahead of the Hall's favorite candidates. But nonbody else here is interested in this, so be it.

We'll just play our game on our little field amongst us expert guys.

And it's not only with the HOF and its voters, it's to the entire baseball community. There's always that BUT. "Yeah, your guys were great, BUT you can't really say they belong in the Hall because your criteria are different."

One couldn't say that, as our criteria is almost entirely a subset of theirs. With the exception of Rose, Jackson and arguably Allen and Beckwith.

What we can't say is that the people they've inducted using their broader 'contribution to the game' type criteria are mistakes (Rizzuto, Chance, and so on).

FWIW, DanG, I completely agree with you. What the group should be focusing on now is getting the qualified players elected to the real Hall.

And most importantly, we should be working on disseminating our judgments about who is worthy of a spot in the Hall, using the language of the HoF voters. Preaching to them about how they just DONT consider OBP, and oh they're so stupid, and, Bruce Sutter, like what the ####?; none of that is what we need.

There are many HoM-not-HoF guys for whom we could potentially influence their chance of election, because their body of work is such that they don't require "new-fangled stats" or "moneyball" or whatever the people who look down on us think we do, and we should try to make that happen.

wow, poor proofing on my part.

It should read The Hall of Merit should USE its own standards.

DanG - I don't want to knock you out of the park. I agree with Sean's comments. Beyond that, I think when we include "contributions to the game" it becomes too big of a bullsh t dump. We all have our various BS dumps, but one problem with the HoF's "sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game" for me is that these undefined terms can be used as excuses for inducting/voting for a player with lesser on-field accomplishments or as excuses for not inducting/voting for a player who would seem to have HOF-worthy numbers.

One reason I have thought of the HOF as a joke for 20+ years were the elections of various players (usually VC, but not all) over very comparable players because of who they were teammates with, because "they helped their teams win," or because they were more famous. The HoM is attractive to me precisely because we are trying to have more concrete standards than the memories of 75 year old men (referring to the 1944/45 elections specifically) or being teammates of Frankie Frisch.

Whatever we decide to do, this new chapter has reinvigorated my interest in the project which had greatly waned once Jones and Browning got in.

zop,

I agree with your third paragraph. I do think the information / knowledge that this community has gathered could make excellent arguments for getting players elected to the HoF and that shrill arguments about Sutter or the fact that general HoF voters are statistical idiots would get us nowhere.

General comment:
Helping the general voter understand the importance of home parks historically (which I think many will find acceptable after experiencing Coors Field), the changes in the game (which based on voters comments about 500 homeruns this summer, they may be recognizing), and similarity of non-HOF to non-Frisch HOF are things the HOM could do well. But I think that arguing sportsmanship, character, contributions to the game gets into the idea of "insider" knowledge and old comments about "We don't know what goes on in a clubhouse" or "Their contributions can't be seen in the numbers."

Just taking the first 20 names on the HoM-not-HoF list, and picking out guys off the top of my head who might have some traction among the BBWAA or VC...

7 Browning, Pete-has the reputation and the raw stats; he's also the famous Louisville Slugger which probably counts for something.


11 Dahlen, Bill- he had some excellent offensive years, and his defensive reputation can be substantiated by some historical research. Again, you don't need stats to put him over the top.

12 Dawson, Andre-He's close as is, and I think the stat-crowd's attack on his undeserving 1987 MVP has given him a rep as a anti-saber player. Our imprimatur upon his merit might make a real difference.

18 Gordon, Joe- Has the good team gloss, and I think that if we make the case that the Hall has been too stingy with war credit, that's an argument people will support; who wants to penalize guys who served in WWII?

20 Gossage, Rich- He'll probably get elected this year, but I think the support from a statistically-minded group would make a difference when it's commonly known that sabery fans are unfriendly to relievers

I like the schedule proposed by Joe in #52.

I could go either way about including non-HoMers in the positional rankings. I disagree with this though:

If the players eligible were better than a Hall of Merit player, they should be in the Hall of Merit.

You don't have any PHoM players behind some non-PHoM players? I know I do.

Which way do you think this should aim, Marc?

I suppose they were numbered #1 and #2 for a reason.

I just thought that djrelays proposal in #30 was dead on and I thought it was getting watered down. And as much as it pains me, I have to agree 110 percent with zoperino,if you're not into the whole brevity thing in #78. (Though I have to say I really don't understand that if it's zoperino, then how come the brevity thing is 'zop. Wouldn't that be zop'...?)

And most importantly, we should be working on disseminating our judgments about who is worthy of a spot in the Hall, using the language of the HoF voters.

The thing is, what the electorate does is form judgments.

Disseminating those judgments is not a project for the electorate as a whole to work on together. That's a job for a small groups of writers or individual writers, with the rest of the electorate able to offer editorial advice on documents that are being prepared. We did this kind of advocacy when the Negro League committee created a comment period, which gave us an opening to send them a brief. We don't know how much of an impact we had (perhaps very little), but their selections did agree quite well with our comments. We don't know if we will have other formal opportunities to send comments, but we might think of the ranking of the HoMers in each of the voting pools as our forming a judgment of which players we ought to advocate for first, and most strongly. If voters want actually to seek out our judgments, we're not hard to find!

I think we would do better to make our case for the players we think are most deserving, seizing opportunities to provide comment, rather than advocating for players who are "our guys" just because those are the ones who seem to have the best chance of getting the attention of the Hall. We don't do strategic voting, and I think we would be ill-advised, in the long run, to do "strategic advocacy."

That's partly why I disagree with DanG about adopting the Hall's election criteria as our own for the rankings project. In the longer term, if we are in it for the longer term, we ought to sustain and foster our mission of offering carefully reasoned, value-based judgments about players' on the field merits. That's what, in the longer term, will lead people to listen to what we have to say, because we have built a deserved reputation for credibility and reliability in what we do. We've just spent five years building the Hall of Merit! What we do, as the Hall of Merit electorate, should continue to build on that achievement. That doesn't mean we are navel-gazing or unconcerned about what happens at the Cooperstown hall. Of course we care: the Hall of Merit exists because we care. But I think we can best serve the cause of reform in the Hall of Fame by serving as an example and as a source of advice given on the basis of our methods and criteria, but given in ways that are, as much as we can make them, respectful of Cooperstown's mission and couched in terms that will be meaningful to their voters.

(Though I have to say I really don't understand that if it's zoperino, then how come the brevity thing is 'zop. Wouldn't that be zop'...?)

It's a (slightly modified) quote from the Big Lebowski.

Don't feel bad about agreeing with me, sunnyday. You may even come to like the feeling after awhile.

Chris, you’re probably twice the chess player I am, but with all due respect, you’re advocating for a passive strategy. “We’re here if you need us, whenever you’re ready to be informed.” I see this as neither respectful to Cooperstown nor very meaningful.

What is the point of the ranking project? What question do we seek to answer? Is it not “Whom should the Hall of Fame elect next?” Right? The assumed preface to this question is “Given the scholarship and diligence of the HoM assessments,….” That’s how we want it to be understood. But, it’s too easy to cast the primary assumption to say, “Given the rules and procedures of the HoM,….”

If we do the ranking project using HoM criteria, both assumptions are true. Wouldn’t it be better if we operated under the first assumption only? Using the HOF rules would make our results more relevant. They could be directly applied to the question “Whom should the Hall of Fame elect next?” rather than having to adjust them later to fit the HOF.

=========================================================

Of equal importance is the question, “How can we get them to listen?” Where is our best lever? How best to penetrate The Wall and influence what happens in there?

Chris say stay the course. Do our thing. I’m saying look up! Yes, “we ought to sustain and foster our mission of offering carefully reasoned, value-based judgments about players”, as Chris wrote. But I think we are entirely capable enough to continue assessing players in this manner while incorporating the elements of the HOF criteria into our evaluations.

In the end we’ll have two lists. The first is essentially the one in #62 that only assesses players’ on the field merits that we just spent five years creating. The second list starts with that and incorporates a players’ “ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game.” As always, (and indeed, like the Hall voters themselves) each voter will decide just what that means, what is important in that evaluation.

By doing it EXACTLY like them, only doing it better, we have the opportunity to demonstrate to the world how things could be; that there is a better way. Making carefully reasoned, value-based judgments of merit is the path to true honor for baseball’s greats. How do you feel more honored, knowing you made it because your friends voted for you, or knowing that a comprehensive look at your accomplishments demonstrated to others that you deserve the honor? This is the contrast we need to promote, between how they do things and our better way. That it is our knowledge and care that lead to a better result, more so than a difference in criteria.

So we can sit back and say, here’s how you should change your rules and procedures, and be ignored. Or we can go and beat them at their own game. I think the second way is a better lever.

=========================================================

Howie said: “Using the HOF criteria seems like a rabbit hole to me.
"Contributions to the game" - suddenly managing and broadcasting come into play?”

This is EXACTLY where we should go. Despite Chris’ optimism, the walrus ain’t coming here anytime soon. We need to go through the looking glass into their realm. This is an active strategy. Hitting them where they live, being on the offense in the battle, at the risk of being offensive. But that is how you move people who will not be moved – going on their ground, playing by their rules and grabbing them by the shirt collar until they listen.

We’re operating from a position of strength. They hold the citadel of power but we are legion. What are they gonna do, shut down the HoM? They have no strong defense for giving major support to Oliva and Wills and little to Grich and Simmons. We can beat them at their own game, so why not do it?

=========================================================

The more I think about doing the rankings project on our own turf, the less jazzed up I feel. The results are already known, for the most part; it’s gonna look a lot like the list in #62. Any significant movements are predictable. Taking months just to tweak that list isn’t very exciting. I suppose I’d participate, but eh.

But if we consider Being Joe Morgan, and entering the mind of a Hall voter? Now that’s interesting!

I remind myself that radical ideas don’t become mainstream overnight.

The list from #62, with corrections. Simmons and Richardson added. Beckley deleted.

97.7 - Tim Raines (2008)
94.4 - Deacon White (1898)
94.0 - Paul Hines (1898)
93.4 - Bert Blyleven (1998)
92.3 - Pete Rose (1993)
88.9 - Bill Dahlen (1915)
87.7 - Ron Santo (1980)
86.0 - Alan Trammell (2002)
85.9 - Mark McGwire* (2007)
82.4 - Jack Glasscock (1904)
81.5 - Ted Simmons (1994)
79.5 - George Gore (1898)
77.5 - Lou Whitaker (2001)
75.5 - Will Clark (2006)
75.6 - Ezra Sutton (1908)
74.7 - Rich Gossage (2000)
74.4 - Joe Jackson (1927)
73.5 - Cal McVey (1914)
72.5 - Joe Start (1912)
68.9 - Dick Allen (1983)
68.4 - Ross Barnes (1898)
67.1 - Hardy Richardson (1905)
67.1 - Grant Johnson (1925)
65.2 - Bobby Grich (1992)
64.9 - Heinie Groh (1938)
63.2 - Harry Stovey (1916)
61.6 - Jimmy Sheckard (1930)
60.9 - Charlie Bennett (1921)
60.2 - Sherry Magee (1926)
59.9 - Joe Torre (1984)
58.0 - John Beckwith (1957)
56.6 - Bob Caruthers (1930)
53.0 - Dickey Pearce (1931)
49.8 - Keith Hernandez (1996)
48.6 - Stan Hack (1958)
43.6 - Darrell Evans (1995)
43.0 - Bill Freehan (1985)
42.6 - Dwight Evans (1997)
41.8 - Joe Gordon (1976)
41.3 - Wes Ferrell (1964)
40.5 - Lip Pike (1940)
39.1 - Billy Pierce (1987)
36.2 - Quincy Trouppe (1995)
35.5 - Cupid Childs (1988)
35.1 - Ken Boyer (1991)
34.7 - Minnie Minoso (1987)
34.2 - Charlie Keller (1996)
32.4 - Dick Lundy (2008)
31.7 - Jimmy Wynn (1996)
29.9 - Dobie Moore (1991)
28.7 - Bret Saberhagen (2008)
28.2 - Willie Randolph (2001)
28.1 - Pete Browning (2005)
26.7 - Dave Stieb (2002))
25.3 - Alejandro Oms (2006)
25.2 - Andre Dawson (2005)
25.1 - Graig Nettles (2006)
24.9 - Charley Jones (2003)

I think # of years on ballot would be useful in that table.

40% 1st ballot is different than 40% 23rd ballot

Another key point is that we need to consider the implications of "fairness to all eras"

A major factor determing the HoM-not-HoF list is that we smoothed out the glut of 30's players (not as much as we should've, perhaps, but relative to the HoF), and we took those excess spots and redistributed them to other eras. Look at that list; its highly heterogeneous by decade.

If we advocate for the most marginal HoMers from the eras underrepresented in the HoF, we are essentially making the "better than the worst" fallacy; we're advocating a standard set by the worst members of the Hall. The voters of the Hall might not want to be "fair to all eras"; they might recognize the Frisch-blip as an unfortunate aberration. Candidates whose merit requires a standard set by the inclusiveness of that era, even when redistributed through time, are not going to get traction with Hall voters. As many in our electorate have noted, when you match the hall's numbers distributed over all eras, the standard seems to low; the Hall will not admit, and should not admit, Nettles and Keller.

It is important to figure out what the "true" modern standard for the hall is, throwing out the obviously fallacious old VC members. Assess where that line falls in our HoM-not-Hof list. Then advocate for the players who are above it.

It is important to figure out what the "true" modern standard for the hall is, throwing out the obviously fallacious old VC members. Assess where that line falls in our HoM-not-Hof list. Then advocate for the players who are above it.

Right. I think that means that doing a ranking project for the HOFer-not-HoMer group would be useful, as well.

It is important to figure out what the "true" modern standard for the hall is, throwing out the obviously fallacious old VC members. Assess where that line falls in our HoM-not-Hof list. Then advocate for the players who are above it.

As a practical matter, it will be the top 2 on each list. I mean, seriously. If they listen to us at all, it will be no more than that. They might take 1 or 2 names from us and add them to THEIR list. Like they did with G. Davis. They're not gonna replace THEIR list.

Hahah, 'zop, funny you singled out Nettles and Keller--two of your faves--as undeserving of admission to a smaller HoM. By my criteria at any rate, if you give Keller credit for 1938 as well as the war (as I know you do), he's not far from the HoM median...I love Nettles and was one of his biggest advocates, but I agree he's near the bottom of the HoM.

Hahah, 'zop, funny you singled out Nettles and Keller--two of your faves--as undeserving of admission to a smaller HoM.

That was intentional. I don't think that this should be about our favorite pet candidates anymore. If the HoM consensus thought that Joe Torre was a much stronger candidate than Charlie Keller, then I'll go along with it even if I think it's slightly touched.

I disagree about leaving Rose on the ballot. The issue with him is not whether he was a HOF caliber player but is unrelated to his play on the field. It is an entirely different issue whether Rose belongs in than whether Santo or Blyleven does and muddies the discussion. The only question with Rose is whether a banned player should be allowed into the Hall, or alternatively, whether he should have been banned. Had that issue not arisen, Rose would have been elected on the first ballot overwhelmingly. If Rose is left on and there are limits on how many a person may vote for, his inclusion creates a confusing debate that leads discussion into digressions.

The Jackson discussion is slightly different in that there might be some argument that his short career should be held against him. Otherwise, if there is consensus that purely on his playing performance he belongs in, there is no reason to include him either as it causes the same confusion.

If you want to consider a player who was banned it should be Cicotte, but as he is not in the Hall of Merit (I wonder why) that point is moot. In his case, an argument both ways could be made purely on his pitching career.

By standards of HIS day, even when he was pitching--that is, ignore for a moment that he had a short career and that it was as a result of his own actions--even when he was pitching, Cicotte was not consistently a dominant pitcher. He had a tendency to have a good year and a bad year. It just didn't add up. Grimes was better and he's not in.

The second list starts with that and incorporates a players’ “ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game.”

DanG, while I think you make a lot of good points, the fact remains that I, for one, am really not at all interested in incorporating all those things into rankings of the HOM-not-HoFers. I don't want to enter the mind of an HOF voter. It just isn't very interesting to me. It's as if we were making lists of great movies, and then we said, "Now let's fold in how these movies did at the box office, and rank them with that criterion added somehow."

I can completely see how that might be interesting to some people too, actually. But I don't care enough to even make the effort to take part in either case.

Now, if it's just me, or even just me and a couple of others, that doesn't matter much or at all, of course. But I suspect that at least a portion of the existing electorate might feel the same. The real question is, how much of the electorate would you get to participate in a vote such as the one you're describing? Would it be enough to be representative?

More broadly, though, I agree with Marc that before proceeding much further with this ranking idea, we need to figure out which fork in the road we're taking, because this thread is splitting off into two distinctly different camps, and there seems to be less and less common ground between them with every post. The way things are going, we're not going to be ranking anything....

I will comment more in detail later - but for now suffice it to say that I firmly believe we should do what we do.

We want to influence the Hall of Fame, sure. But we do that by doing what we do and building respect for that, as some said above. We never endorsed the Hall of Fame's criteria, there is no reason to start now.

We are advocating for the best players, period. If the best players don't fall under the Hall of Fame's criteria, than that is on them. All we can and should do is advocate for the best players. If they turn around and say, "sure he was great, but doesn't meet this portion of our criteria" then that's up to them.

We are hoping they notice, but we are doing this for ourselves - so we can focus on which candidates to push first. As an institution, we don't care about their BS dumps. If anything, I'd rather push for them to remove the BS dumps from their criteria.

Bill James, in explaining his criteria for advocating a Hall of Fame case used the question:

Is he the very best player that is not enshrined?

That's what this ranking projected is attempting to answer, so we can focus on who to push.

But with Rose and Jackson you are not asking that question because the answer is self-evident. Of course Rose and Jackson are the two best players not inducted (again, unless you hold Jackson's short career against him), so just say they are should be in and take it out of the discussion or separate them into a different discussion. If you leave them in the discussion, it confuses the issue because their worthiness is not in dispute, nor are they comparable to anyone else on the list.

The issue in their case is not even comparable to a discussion that might arise about Dick Allen, for example. It is possible some voters would oppose him because they believe he was a disruptive influence and so not a winner. The issue with Rose and Jackson is not one of character exactly; especially in Rose's case, it is a purely technical issue. In fact, if "baseball character" is important, that would be to his advantage.

Has anyone else noticed the amazing coincidence that the top 58 rated players not to make the HoF happen to also fall in alphabetical order? What is the mathematical probability of that??

around the bend

But with Rose and Jackson you are not asking that question because the answer is self-evident. Of course Rose and Jackson are the two best players not inducted (again, unless you hold Jackson's short career against him),

I can see a case for leaving Rose off under this grounds, but I think you could be wrong about Jackson. Plenty will hold his career length against him, causing him to fall below some of the other top players.

If you want to leave Rose off, do a run-off with Rose & the #1 winner. (But if you do that, do it at the same time a normal weekly election goes on. No need to gum up the process for an entire week given that a match race run-off shouldn't take as much time/thought as a typical election.

test

It is important to figure out what the "true" modern standard for the hall is, throwing out the obviously fallacious old VC members. Assess where that line falls in our HoM-not-Hof list. Then advocate for the players who are above it.

That can estimated.

Number elected by BBWAA by decade:
1998-2007: 18
1988-1997: 14
1978-1987: 17
1968-1977: 15
1958-1967: 5 (elections every other year during most of this period)
1948-1957: 18
1938-1947: 10 (WWII disrupted elections during this period)
1936-1937: 8

If we ignore pre-1968 data due to the constant tinkering with the election schedule, we come up with an average of 16 new BBWAA HOFers per decade. The HOF fully covers roughly 11 decades now (1880-1990), plus straggles before and after. This yields a HOF of about 176 members or about 75% as large as the one today. That implies there are about 55 excess members to both halls, when compared to the de facto BBWAA standard.

Which means that most of the HOM backlog electees (55/75 or nearly 75%) should be the basis for the HOVG (and perhaps including some of the weaker midlog selections). They were elected to replace the HOF's "mistakes", and are below the "true modern standard".

This post doesn't really have a point . . . not that a post needs one at btf.

Looking at the list, here's me dividing the 58 into eras:

Nineteenth Century 18: Barnes, Bennett, Browning, Caruthers, Childs, Dahlen, Glasscock, Gore, Hines, Jones, McVey, Pearce, Pike, Richardson, Start, Stovey, Sutton, White.

Deadball 4: Groh, Jackson, Magee, Sheckard.

Pre-Integration 4: Ferrell, Gordon, Hack, Keller.

Pre-First Labor Strike (1972) 8: Allen, Boyer, Freehan, Minoso, Pierce, Santo, Torre, Wynn.

Modern Times 18: Blyleven, Clark, Dawson, Da Evans, Dw Evans, Gossage, Grich, Hernandez, McGwire, Nettles, Raines, Randolph, Rose, Saberhagen, Simmons, Stieb, Trammell, Whitaker.

Negro Leaguers: Beckwith, Johnson, Lundy, Moore, Oms, Troupe. From what I know, all of them except Johnson would go in the Pre-Ing group, with Johnson rounding out the Deadball bunch.

The modern times guys will go in over time as the BBWAA & VC put more in - for example, barring a disaster Gossage will go in next month.

Have no point - just wanted to era-'em up.

If you make the cut-off 1893 instead of 1900 for deadballers, how many of that first group switch? Childs, Dahlen . . and that's it, right?

HOM-not-HOF on the current BBWAA ballot:
1a) Raines Blyleven McGwire Trammell Gossage // Dawson

HOM-not-HOF excluded from the current BBWAA ballot by the 5% rule:
1b) Whitaker / TSimmons Clark Hernandez DaEvans
DwEvans / Randolph Stieb Nettles Saberhagen

HOM-not-HOF in the "modern" veterans group (post-1943)
2) Santo Grich / Allen Torre /
Freehan Pierce Minoso Boyer JWynn

HOM-not-HOF in the "modern" veterans group (post-1943)
plus those whose BBWAA eligibility will soon expire
2+) Santo Grich / TSimmons Allen Torre DaEvans /
Freehan Pierce Minoso Boyer JWynn Nettles

HOM-not-HOF in the "classic" veterans group (pre-1943)
3) White Hines Dahlen / Gore Groh /
Glasscock Richardson ESutton Start Stovey
Bennett Magee Sheckard Caruthers Hack
Ferrell Gordon Childs Keller CJones Browning

HOM-not-HOF in the "other" group (ineligible due
to lack of 10 years MLB service or for other reasons)
4) Rose / JJackson Barnes / McVey GJohnson
Pearce Pike Beckwith Moore Trouppe Oms Lundy

The slashes? (/) The first marks the border between "frontlog" and "midlog", the second between "midlog" and "backlog". Front-loggers got more than 50% of the #1's (or would have if not for the presence of another "front-logger" on the ballot, eg Ruth vs Hornsby). Midloggers didn't get 50% but also didn't mingle with the real backloggers (more formal def'n courtesy of Paul Wendt).

Front-loggers would be those we strongly endorsed in the HOM elections, and are the ones we are highly likely to endorse again in any ranking exercis. Mid-loggers got less support, sometimes much less; I would expect the best of them to be ranked above the best of the backloggers, but the lowest ones (e.g. Groh or Dwight Evans) did not dominate a weak backlog on their ballots and so might not fare as well in a comprehensive ranking.

I think grouping them acc. to the HoF voting procedures, as jimd has it here, is the way to go. I realize it was proposed and discussed previously but I thought it deserved some emphasis, as jimd obviously did as well.

I wouldn't say Rose and Jackson are 'of course' the two best - there are some 19th Century guys that could be considered better than Jackson and possibly even Rose (if you are a peak voter).

So you don't rank Joe Start or Ezra Sutton above Pete Rose?

I suppose that any of White, Dahlen, and Blyleven (all with long careers) would get several votes head on with Rose.
"Several" is approximately 2.33 times "a few"

frontlog (12) plus midlog (11)
by peak decade
bold - currently eligible (5)
<u>underscore</u> - frontlog

2000
- - <u>McGwire</u>
1990
- - <u>Raines, Trammell, Whitaker</u>, Hernandez, EvansDw, ClarkW
1980
- - <u>Blyleven, Gossage, Rose, Grich</u>, Simmons, EvansDa
1970
- - <u>Santo</u>, Torre, Allen
1960

1950

1940

1930

1920
- - <u>_J</u>ackson, Groh
1910

1900
- - <u>Dahlen</u>
1890
- - Gore
1880
- - <u>White, Hines</u>, Barnes
1870

backlog (35)
by peak decade
bold - current eligible (1)
UPPERCASE - behind color line (6)

2000
- -
1990
- - Dawson, Randolph, Stieb, Saberhagen
1980
- - Nettles
1970
- - Boyer, Wynn, Freehan
1960
- - Pierce, Minoso
1950
- - Gordon, Keller
1940
- - TROUPPE, Ferrell, Hack
1930
- - OMS, LUNDY, BECKWITH
1920
- - MOORE, Magee
1910
- - JOHNSON, Sheckard
1900
- - Childs
1890
- - Glasscock, Richardson, Stovey, Bennett, Browning, Caruthers
1880
- - Pike, McVey, Sutton, Jones
1870
- - Pearce, Start

Those allocations by decade lean early rather than late. I looked up only Randolph and Hernandez. Hack, Gordon, and Keller were all in their prime together before the war and having looked up Hack it now seems that they belong in the 1940s together.

DagN (not to be confused with DanG)
If you make the cut-off 1893 instead of 1900 for deadballers, how many of that first group switch? Childs, Dahlen . . and that's it, right?

Yes. Dahlen is a close call at 1900 (but 1901 is traditional and defines the SABR "deadball era").

There will be 57 or 58 players to rank, depending on whether or not Tim Raines is elected to the Hall of Fame.

Ah, that's why I couldn't match 57 -- 55 plus Jackson and Rose.
Raines doesn't show up in my data but I guess he will show up next month
:-(

Have we more or less decided to implement Joe's proposed schedule in #52 with the players grouped per jimd in #106? Or did we decide to lump the <5 percent club in with either the BBWAA list or the post-'43 VC list? Or what?

I like the 1B - (Simmons and Evans), 2+, 3, 4 groupings. I'm good with the schedule.

Now, wading into this thread after a week posted (though it will take me a few days to absorb all of the posts :-)...

Have you guys found someone to handle the elections yet? If you haven't, I'm thinking (just thinking...I may still regain my senses ;-) about lending a hand, if needed. Besides ballot and election results threads, what else would be needed from the moderator?

One other thing: elections would have to end on Sunday nights if I was in charge. That would have to be mandatory. Monday was a killer for me.

- I think any change of days is fine
- I think there is no reason we can't wait a half-day or more, if need be
- Any other stress-easer should be considered

The heavy lifting is over; no reason to make 2008 a painful one..

I appreciate that, Howie.

I think the original rationale of Monday as the last election day was to allow some people to finish their ballots the last weekend, and post them (at work?) the next day.

You're correct, Jim, but that still doesn't help my situation.

Now, if we moved the start date of each election to Sundays also, the procrastinators :-) could work on their ballots that weekend and submit their ballots that first Monday way before the election's end.

Yeah, I know I'm dreaming. :-)

John, whenever you're the person stepping up to lead, it's your call as to what's gonna work for you. IOW, set up a schedule that fits with your life, making whatever accomodations to requests that you're able to. Then clearly communicate it; the procrastinators can't carp if they have only themselves to blame for missing a vote.

An option: The schedule in #52 has polls opening on Monday and closing on Monday. If Sunday-Sunday works better for you, do it that way. If you want to try and accomodate people who vote from work, think about doing a Friday-Saturday schedule, where the poll is open for 8 days.

And any way it gets handled, there is NO requirement for people to wait until the last day/minute.

sigh.

I agree. If John is willing to continue to administer this thing, and if John can't do a Monday close, then Sunday it is. It's not as if that precludes finalizing ballots on a weekend if you need to.

I agree. If John is willing to continue to administer this thing, and if John can't do a Monday close, then Sunday it is.

Seconded.

Any against?

Jim Rice is on my short list. As far as teh method, a weekly breakdown by era would work.

John I just set Monday up there to keep with what was already in place, any changes can be made.

I can also do some of the lifting at this point - it's been awhile since I posted an election results thread - how much is automated these days, and how much is manual?

I can also do some of the lifting at this point - it's been awhile since I posted an election results thread - how much is automated these days, and how much is manual?

Thanks Joe, but if we can do it on Sundays, I don't see a problem. Basically (please correct me if I'm wrong), I would just be setting up ballot and ballot discussion threads, as well as election results threads and tallying up the ballots. There are no plaques or plaque rooms to maintain, so it shouldn't be comparable to the normal HoM election process in terms of workload.

Cool, as always thanks for your willingness to take the time John.

Just a quick heads up, I will be out of town with limited interwebby access from this Friday through New Year's Eve. I should be able to check my email a few times a day through my phone, but I don't get a great signal at my mom's place . . .

Sounds great, can we get a discussion thread up for the 1B grouping (minus Simmons and Evans)? Right now is the time to influence the voters, they're sending in ballots now.

Current rankings:

Group 1
1) Bert Blyleven
2) Tim Raines
3) Alan Trammell
4) Lou Whitaker
5) Dwight Evans
6) Mark McGwire
7) Goose Gossage
8) Bret Saberhagen
9) Will Clark
10) Keith Hernandez
11) Dave Stieb
12) Willie Randolph
13) Andre Dawson

Group 2
1) Bobby Grich
2) Ron Santo
3) Joe Torre
4) Darrell Evans
5) Billy Pierce
6) Ted Simmons
7) Graig Nettles
8) Bill Freehan
9) Dick Allen
10) Minnie Minoso
11) Ken Boyer
12) Jim Wynn

I'm going to need to see discussion before ranking groups 3 and 4 as they largely consist of players I haven't fully evaluated. I do know I'd head them up with Dahlen and Rose.

For Group 1, I agree with DL on top 2, bottom 2, and top half/bottom half:

1) Bert Blyleven
2) Tim Raines
3) Mark McGwire
4) Rich Gossage
5) Dwight Evans
6) Lou Whitaker
7) Alan Trammell
8) Will Clark
9) Keith Hernandez
10) Bret Saberhagen
11) Dave Stieb
12) Willie Randolph
13) Andre Dawson

For Group 2, I agree with DL on top 2, then there's much less correspondence:

1) Bobby Grich
2) Ron Santo
3) Ted Simmons
4) Dick Allen
5) Darrell Evans
6) Graig Nettles
7) Joe Torre
8) Minnie Minoso
9) Bill Freehan
10) Jimmy Wynn
11) Billy Pierce
12) Ken Boyer

Group 1 is much stronger than Group 2, overall, though the top pair on each list are (or will be in the case of Raines) huge, painful, glaring omissions from the Hall of Fame.

Group 1 is much stronger than Group 2, overall, though the top pair on each list are (or will be in the case of Raines) huge, painful, glaring omissions from the Hall of Fame.

I agree twice.

If I were influential with the writers in significant numbers, I wouldn't consider spending any of it on Blyleven, Raines, McGwire or Gossage (or Dawson) yet, not when they may be elected without my help. I might say "Psst, Dale Murphy was greater than Jim Rice."

Nor would I spend any on Pete Rose and Joe Jackson. Given that kind of influence I would try to use it in other ways.

They don't have enough third basemen and I think Santo is one tier above Groh, Hack, Boyer. I would be happy to "single" him out as Grich's running mate whether it be for the 20th century or for "my dad's fanhood"

Even without those who are still on the BBWAA ballot, I could easily get through the top ten without touching a 1900s-1950s debut. Probably top twenty if I include the BBWAA eligible.

Oops, "my dad's fanhood" is the actual scope of the new young veteran's committee, roughly 1940s-1970s

Referring to my own #110, I see that I agree precisely with the group in the following sense:

Rose & Jackson - frontlog elections to the Hall of Merit. I wouldn't spend that kind of influence on Rose and Jackson for the HOF.

White, Hines, Dahlen, Santo, Grich - the other frontlog elections to the Hall of Merit who are not honored in Cooperstown. In slightly non-chronological order (White, Dahlen, Grich, Hines, Santo) those would be my own top five. I'm not tempted to elevate anyone from the group's midlog elections, maybe Johnson from the backlog.

--
Speaking of harboring one's influence: asked to recommend as many as ten 19th century players in the early 1990s, a Blue Ribbon Committee chaired by SABR founder Bob Davids chose to recommend only six (and only one contributor, William Hulbert). McPhee, Davis, Dahlen, Glasscock, Browning, Stovey --listed by position and from memory

Group 1 (gaps indicate where I think there are gaps in quality)

1) Blyleven

2) Raines
3) Hernandez (I rate him more highly than does the group)
4) Whitaker
5) Trammell
6) McGwire
7) Stieb (I rate him more highly than does the group)
8) WClark

9) Saberhagen
10) Gossage (I'm in the minority here and on closers in general)

11) Randolph
12) Evans

13) Dawson (not PHOM)

****************

Group 2 (gaps indicate where I think there are gaps in quality)

1) Grich
2) Santo
3) TSimmons (maybe I should re-evaluate my catcher's bonus?)

4) Torre (I also rate him more highly than does the group)
5) Allen

6) Boyer
7) Evans
8) JWynn

9) Pierce
10) Freehan
11) Minoso

12) Nettles (not PHOM)

I'm not understanding Nettles as way below Boyer.

Player WAR BWAA BRWAA FWAA (below average seasons removed)
Boyer 52.5 23.3 -0.5 12
Nettles 60.8 18.7 -0.3 14.9

Nettles is -4.6 in batting, even in baserunning but ahead 2.9 in fielding. However, the replacement level difference adds 6.6 wins in favor of Nettles.

I can see Boyer ahead of Nettles if you have reasons for preferring a different replacement level. I can't see a substantial difference between them though. We're talking 1.7 wins vs. an average player. Is this a peak argument?

Rose & Jackson - frontlog elections to the Hall of Merit.

Joe Jackson was not a frontlog selection. He got 35% of the #1's in his election (during the "drought"; it wasn't the deepest of backlogs). Comparable to Will Clark at 37%. However Clark did receive a majority of the votes-to-elect in 2006, Jackson did not in 1927 (24 of 49 possible).

I'm not understanding Nettles as way below Boyer. ... Is this a peak argument?

Partially. Also a prime argument. My system sees Nettles as having mainly his career to recommend him. He doesn't quite have a HOM quality peak or prime. Boyer is on the other side of my in/out line for those attributes. I see Nettles as having a better career total, but if that was the most important thing to me, I'd be advocating Maranville much more strongly. I think what hurts Nettles most in my system is the league quality adjustment. Boyer was in the stronger league, Nettles was not.

Another point in Boyer's favor (it's not part of my system now but I might attempt to adjust for it once I figure out how) is that Boyer (and Pierce and Minoso) were playing in the contracted 1950's. This mutes their stats relative to both average and replacement level because those benchmarks were higher than they would have been if there had been 20-24 teams, as there were later (60's/70's) or earlier (1930's including NeL adjustment).

Boyer (and Pierce and Minoso) were playing in the contracted 1950's

Regular HoMies know not to take this at face value. The rest of you, buyer beware. Boyer played half in the '50s, half in the expansion '60s including his putative peak (MVP).

Love Chris' ballot. Boyer and Pierce are where they belong.

I'll split the difference.
His batting peak is 1959-1961, the three seasons preceding expansion:
all three of his OWP .700 seasons; three of four with OPS+ 130.
As a batter he fell off a cliff after the 1964 MVP season.

Reminder:

1/14-1/20 - discuss Group 1 (BBWAA)
1/21-1/28 - vote Group 1

1/28-2/3 - discuss Group 2 (Modern VC)
2/4-2/11 - vote Group 2

2/11-2/17 - discuss Group 3 (Pre WWII VC)
2/18-2/25 - vote Group 3

2/25-3/2 - discuss Group 4 (Currently left out)
3/3-3/10 - vote Group 4

Given possibly-Grandma's schedule, the voting should end on 1/27, 2/10, 2/24 and 3/9, shouldn't it? In other words, DL from MN's schedule, but everything a day earlier.

Personally, I wouldn't mind having all 4 discussion threads up now. I'll need more time to properly evaluate groups 3 and 4 because I joined the party a little late.

Oh, and Gossage is no longer in group 1. Even though it might be interesting to keep him in the discussion I say we keep him off the ballot.

Thanks for the reminder DL. I will post the discussion thread this weekend.

I would think we should shift Gossage to his new group.

We can definitely have the balloting end on whatever day is easiest for John (or whoever will be tallying).

I've been on the road a bunch the last few weeks. I finally returned for good Tuesday, so I'll be around more now.