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Sunday, November 07, 2004

Red Faber, Eppa Rixey and Jack Quinn

One of the Clean Sox, Eppa Jeptha and that other guy with the long career!

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 07, 2004 at 02:18 AM | 106 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: June 22, 2006 at 06:22 AM (#2072040)
Wow. Jack Quinn is a tough one. Full credit for 1916-18 makes him a very serious candidate. It pushes him from .761 to .901 Pennants Added in my system.

Quinn has what I think is the highest relief bonus of any starting pitcher that I've run. He has an estimated leverage index of 1.27 over 739 relief IP. He was 55-35 (estimated there are errors in the 1969 MacMillan that have since been corrected, but it's tough to tell what is relief and starter in the corrections) with 57 saves.

So that gives him a boost. I've docked his Federal League seasons (.17 DERA dock for 1914, .28 for 1915 - that's larger than 1944-45 get docked typically).

Is it too much to give him the following:

Year    IP    R  DERA   tIP
1916  250.0  98  4.26  216.3
1917  306.0 107  3.89  259.3
1918  200.0  68  3.89  188.7 

The 1918 numbers above do not include his actual 51 IP that year for the White Sox.

In his 51 IP in 1918 he had a real DERA of 2.97 (according to my system, which deviates further from average for good years, because I'm using the proper exponents in the pythag portion). So I don't think it's unreasonable to give him that type of credit.

Those same numbers, with the surrounding years included for perspective:

Year     IP     R  DERA   tIP
1913    56.3   22  3.57   46.7
1914   342.7  129  3.57  290.0
1915   273.7  137  4.79  242.3
*  250.0   98  4.26  216.3
*  306.0  107  3.89  259.3
*  200.0   68  3.89  188.7
1918    51.0   13  2.97   51.7
1919   266.0   96  4.08  263.3
1920   253.3  110  3.91  217.0
1921   119.0   61  4.08  101.0
1922   256.0  119  3.81  248.3
1923   243.0  125  4.01  238.7

Essentially, he's missing his peak because of his exile.

We are not projecting a peak here either. Well, sort of. His peak with this credit becomes 1917-1919, but 40% of that was compiled in MLB. He gets 14.3 WAR from 1917-1919. But from 1914-16 he's at 13.4, from 1918-20 he's at 13.0, 1922-24 is 13.3, 1926-28 is 11.9. So it's in the ballpark, and it does make sense that he'd be at least as good from age 33-35 as he was in his mid 40s.

So where does this put him?

Among the pitchers I've run, it vaults him from a group around Virgil Trucks, Bucky Walters, Urban Shocker, Bobo Newsom and Don Newcombe up to being between Bunning and Pierce - and much closer to Bunning.

The list:

Pitcher           PA
Walter Johnson  2.288
Don Drysdale     .955
Jim Bunning      .912
Jack Quinn
*      .901
Billy Pierce     .856
Tommy Bridges    .832
Burleigh Grimes  .795
Hoyt Wilhelm     .782
Virgil Trucks    .763
Bucky Walters    .763
Jack Quinn       .761
Urban Shocker    .759
Bobo Newsom      .752
Don Newcombe     .752
Vic Willis       .745
Dutch Leonard    .740
Dolph Luque      .738
Dizzy Trout      .734
Waite Hoyt       .729
Wilbur Cooper    .727
Ed Cicotte       .723
Rube Waddell     .721
Babe Adams       .720
Mel Harder       .717
George Uhle      .712
Herb Pennock     .702 

I draw my in/out line at about .775. This accounts for pitcher hitting, as well as if the pitchers played other positions (Bucky Walters' position player years are included, etc.). I just use WS for those estimates and adjust for replacement level and convert them to runs in my system. It also accounts for those pitchers relief IP with an estimate for leverage index for pre-1960. Post 1960 I account for bullpen support, inherited runners and actual LI, all courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Quinn's peak is by far the lowest on the list only Wilhelm and Hoyt are close (no pun intended). He's ahead of Drysdale in overall wins 75.5-74.7, but that edge in PA is due to Drysdale's much higher peak. Quinn actually has more WAR (75.5-71.5) than Bunning. He just had a ton of career value. He's got 4463 tIP, which trails only Johnson. The next closest is Newsom with 3845.

I think I'm going to have him ranked very high on my ballot this week, unless someone can convince me I'm seriously overrating his 1916-18 PCL years. There's a lot of room for me overrating him and having him still pretty high on the list.

Just a quick additional note, league average is 4.50 for DERA. Also, I use 5.56 as replacement level for starters, 5.31 for relievers. I also zero out any seasons that would end up negative - I don't believe you can ever pitch your way out of the Hall of Merit. It's impossible to have negative value in a season if someone is willing to put you out there, IMO.
   102. JoeD has the Imperial March Stuck in His Head Posted: June 22, 2006 at 06:24 AM (#2072041)
If you are just hopping into this thread on page 2, please go back and check post #100. If I'd realized that's where it was going to land, I'dve added a dead post to bump it to this page . . . whoops.

NOTE: pretty cool to have the keys - I fixed the issue :-)
   103. sunnyday2 Posted: June 22, 2006 at 11:44 AM (#2072084)
Joe, I couldn't find any discussion among #1-99, though I'm sure it's in there somewhere, but what was the reason for Quinn's "exile"? Was he blacklisted for playing in the FL?
   104. DL from MN Posted: June 22, 2006 at 02:41 PM (#2072182)
I ran him through and there isn't enough above average value for me to put him higher than 26th even after adjusting for PCL credit. That puts him in an off-ballot pack of:

Jose Mendez
Rube Waddell
Jack Quinn
Urban Shocker
Hilton Smith
Bobo Newsom
Dizzy Trout
Vic Willis
Dick Redding
Mickey Welch

It's getting crowded off the end of my ballot.
   105. Devin has a deep burning passion for fuzzy socks Posted: June 25, 2006 at 05:23 AM (#2074967)
The discussion starts at post #64. Basically, he was on a truly awful Federal League team that made his record look worse than it was, and he signed on to the PCL. It looks more like unfortunate circumstances than anything else, but it is fair to say it wouldn't have happened in more recent times.
   106. Paul Wendt Posted: December 15, 2008 at 04:44 AM (#3028961)
Jack Quinn is the focus of #32-34 and #62-90.
Those references do not cover some general remarks on "credit" for minor league play (Faber & Quinn) in contrast to military service and its aftermath (Faber & Rixey).

JTM, The index of 20th century player pages should include a cross-reference at 'Qu' as at 'Ri'.
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