Redistribution of Electees by Year?
I was thinking, maybe the original plan we came up with based on team years wasn’t the best way to go.
What if we based the electees on the number of players born in each year, projected out 45 years (the average age of our first 16 electees at the time of election).
Bear with me here while I explain this.
We’d start our 213 Hall of Famers through 2001 number. We’d the see how many players were born during or before 1956 (11713, plus 306 players we don’t have birthdates on).
Would there be anything else to adjust for? Such as allowing slots for 25 Negro Leaguers. Not as a quota, just factoring in that they aren’t in our pool of birthdates).
If we make the Negro League adjustment (we can worry about which years get electees later), we’d basically have one HoMer for every 63.93 major league players born. I think a great majority of all of the players we don’t have birthdates on played in the 19th Century, so I would add them to the ‘backlog’. Our 6th HoMer should be around the same time as the 349th player born. Counting the 306 + 43 we know we have would put our first HoMer born in 1845 or the 1890 election.
Our 20th HoMer, the last one we elected, would be the 823rd player born (not counting the 306 w/out birthdays, the 1129th including them), which was in 1864, which works out to our 1909 election. Which would mean we are just two ahead (although somewhat misproportioned). We’ve got a museum to run, so I wouldn’t hold off an election, but we’d only go one per year until we get back on schedule, which won’t be long. Alternatively, we could just add two HoMers (in recognition of the real Hall’s lack of Negro Leaguers and pre-1880s players) and go with 215. I’d probably support that, but I could be talked out of it too.
It’s not too late to change this, and I think it’s much better theoretically than our current system. There is no bias involved here, just a lightbulb that went off, one that should have gone off a year ago.
I should be able to post the schedule if we go down this path later today (I’m still working on it, since I have to do a lot of it by hand). What do you guys think?
Posted: August 21, 2003 at 03:20 PM | 36 comment(s)
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