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Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Roy Halladay

Eligible in 2019

DL from MN Posted: January 02, 2018 at 09:53 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 03, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5600075)
Pitcher PWAA WAR - (my numbers)
Tiant 24.4 56.6
Halladay 34.0 58.6
Santana 34.1 50.2

Koufax 30.1 47.5
Saberhagen 29.9 55.3
Walsh 29.9 52.1
Stieb 27.2 53.2
Dean 26.1 44.7
Cone 26.0 57.0
Appier 23.3 51.2
Ferrell 22.5 54.2 (but bat++)
Pierce 23.6 54
Pettitte 19.3 50.5
   2. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: January 05, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5601479)
For me, Halladay is a top-30 pitcher in history. His career looks a ton like Jim Palmer's a third of a century later, one with a higher peak in front of mere mortal defenses.

I suspect he'll be an easy Hall of Merit call, though I worry the Hall of Fame won't be as wise.
   3. OCF Posted: January 05, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5601509)
From my long-time RA-based methods:

Equivalent record: 192-113, big years score of 49.

Top equivalent seasons: 20-8, 18-8, 18-8, 18-9, 18-9, 19-11

Some other pitchers in the same general territory:

Halladay: 192-113 [49]
Smoltz: 211-143 [16] (starter years only)
Ford: 218-134 [34]
Brown: 216-145 [46]
Newhouser: 202-131 [53]
Tiant: 224-164 [35]

Kevin Brown looks like the closest comp to me. I have him definitely ahead of Tiant, and I've been voting for Tiant. Ahead of Stieb. Behind Glavine, Schilling, and Mussina.

I'd probably put Palmer ahead of him, but the comparison in #2 isn't silly.

Easy HoM.
   4. Downing Almost Deserves It Posted: January 05, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5601527)
Kevin Brown is certainly an apt comparison. I love Tiant and Stieb, but I agree they're behind. I agree that Schilling and Mussina are ahead. As for Glavine, it depends how you feel about peak/prime/career. I think the two are very close, but I tilt toward peak. If you tilt at all toward career, which is completely legitimate, Glavine is an easy call.

So what wins out in Hall voting, the tragedy of Halladay's passing, or the foolish clinging to career victories?
   5. Carl Goetz Posted: January 11, 2018 at 04:24 PM (#5604921)
I wonder where the guys who need to "feel like he's a Hall of Famer when he played" will come down. Analytically, he's an easy call for me. I also "felt" like he was a Hall of Fame type guy while he played, but I don't know if others agree. I agree that the win-obsessives will probably find fault, but he did win 2 Cy Youngs which I feel he deserved and he probably deserved to beat Kershaw in 2011 for a 3rd. He has less wins than Schilling and was not as good, but the CY Youngs may give him a better "classic" Hall of Fame case.
   6. cookiedabookie Posted: January 16, 2018 at 05:09 PM (#5607605)
Among pitchers with at least 50 bWAR and 2000 IP, Halladay is 9th at 4.71 bWAR per 200 IP.

Name WAR/200
Pedro Martinez HOF 5.94
Roger Clemens 5.71
Walter Johnson HOF 5.60
Lefty Grove HOF 5.26
Johan Santana 5.07
Zack Greinke 4.94
Randy Johnson HOF 4.94
Curt Schilling 4.90
Roy Halladay 4.71
Wes Ferrell 4.70
Mike Mussina 4.66
Bob Gibson HOF 4.63
Pete Alexander HOF 4.62
Tom Seaver HOF 4.62
Bret Saberhagen 4.62
Kid Nichols HOF 4.60

Saberhagen seems to be the best match stats-wise, but with not quite as good of a narrative.

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