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Friday, January 06, 2017

Scott Rolen

Eligible in 2018

DL from MN Posted: January 06, 2017 at 10:53 AM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. OCF Posted: January 08, 2017 at 03:22 PM (#5379803)
Needs a post to become visible.
   2. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: January 09, 2017 at 10:32 PM (#5380768)
Will be crushed by HoF voters. Will be rightly revered by HoM voters.
   3. Howie Menckel Posted: January 09, 2017 at 11:14 PM (#5380793)
one and done with HOF but will get full vetting from HOM, yes.
   4. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 10, 2017 at 03:32 PM (#5381137)
Went 0-for the 2004 World Series, in a year where he accumulated 9 WAR. I wonder if anyone else has had that good of a regular season and then had such an abysmal Fall Classic.
   5. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: January 11, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5381547)
I wonder if anyone else has had that good of a regular season and then had such an abysmal Fall Classic.


Ted Williams hit .200/.333/.200 in the WS after a 10.9 WAR year, not quite an Ofer
   6. base ball chick Posted: January 23, 2017 at 11:04 AM (#5388290)
the best 3rd baseman besides chipper of my teenage/adult life

70 WAR - my god.

i am really tired of so many great HOF worth players being 1 and done, let alone not getting in
   7. karlmagnus Posted: January 23, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5388310)
WAR's positional adjustments look to have gone cuckoo here. Normally OWar and dWar add to substantially more than WaR, but for Rolen there's no discount. Eyeballing it, his 52.1 oWaR looks to have a fair amount of positional water in it, so I would guess that his real total is about 60WaR, not 70. It's not that long a career, and to me the WaR figures look funny. Obviously his 2004 is a very impressive year indeed, but his counting totals and OPS+ are not that impressive. If defensive numbers need 50% regression, that would give him 10dWaR, and his total WaR would again be about 60.

I add 15 points to OPS+ of a 3B to compared him with an outfielder, and an outfielder with only 2038 hits at 137 would for me be just below the borderline.
   8. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2017 at 11:39 AM (#5388346)
Normally OWar and dWar add to substantially more than WaR, but for Rolen there's no discount.


That's not a Rolen thing. It's a third base thing.

   9. karlmagnus Posted: January 23, 2017 at 12:02 PM (#5388381)
Then WaR seems to be overvaluing third basemen. For example, it gives Brooks Robinson 78.4WaR, whereas Brooks' OPS+ was a distinctly underwhelming 104, which only equates to 119 as an outfielder equivalent. Brooks looks to me very borderline indeed, indeed I see I didn't vote him into the HOM in 1983. Again, regressing the dWaR by 50% and adding the result to oWaR would put Brooks at 66, which looks about right or still a little high, but plausibly close to the HOM/HOF borderline.

I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about WaR; it overvalues ace fielders, and some positions such as 3B. Andruw Jones is another one whose WaR appears to be overstated. Conversely, it undervalues Manny, who by OPS+ is super-qualified for the HoF.
   10. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: January 23, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5388390)
I have one interesting bit of trivia to share about Scott Rolen. It has nothing to do with his Hall of Merit case, but, eh:

Scott Rolen was called up by the Phillies in August of 1996. He already had 130 at bats on the year when he came up to the plate in the 3rd inning of a September game, and was all set to lose his ROY-eligibility by getting his 131st at bat of the year but instead….he was hit on the arm by a pitch and the injury ended his season with exactly 130 at bats.

The next year he hit .283/.377/.469 with 21 homers and was a unanimous Rookie of the Year.
   11. JJ1986 Posted: January 23, 2017 at 12:21 PM (#5388405)
Again, regressing the dWaR by 50% and adding the result to oWaR would put Brooks at 66
That's not how dWaR works.
   12. SoSH U at work Posted: January 23, 2017 at 12:21 PM (#5388407)
Normally OWar and dWar add to substantially more than WaR, but for Rolen there's no discount.


That's true for middle infielders and catchers. But corner outfielders and first basemen/DHs have more total WAR than the sum of their dWAR/oWAR. For third basemen and center fielders, their total lines up closely with the sum.
   13. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 23, 2017 at 12:22 PM (#5388411)
Then WaR seems to be overvaluing third basemen. For example, it gives Brooks Robinson 78.4WaR, whereas Brooks' OPS+ was a distinctly underwhelming 104, which only equates to 119 as an outfielder equivalent. Brooks looks to me very borderline indeed, indeed I see I didn't vote him into the HOM in 1983. Again, regressing the dWaR by 50% and adding the result to oWaR would put Brooks at 66, which looks about right or still a little high, but plausibly close to the HOM/HOF borderline.

I'm becoming increasingly skeptical about WaR; it overvalues ace fielders, and some positions such as 3B. Andruw Jones is another one whose WaR appears to be overstated. Conversely, it undervalues Manny, who by OPS+ is super-qualified for the HoF.


Within WAR, both oWAR and dWAR include the positional adjustment. For third basemen (and center fielders), positional adjustments are typically very close to zero (e.g., Scott Rolen's positional adjustments were 1 to 3 runs per year throughout his career), so, somewhat coincidentally, WAR = oWAR + dWAR: in general, WAR = oWAR + dWAR - (Rpos, converted to wins)

As to the relative weight of fielding in WAR, I agree with you, the fielding numbers underlying WAR (for both BB-Ref and Fangraphs) are too extreme - in both directions (they over-value Brooks Robinson and under-value Manny Ramirez). Tom Tango has found this to be the case in looking at Statcast data, which he's discussed some on his blog. You may prefer my Player won-lost records, which I compare to WAR here. I compare my fielding numbers to UZR here. As all of that relates to Scott Rolen, he will probably debut on my ballot, but fairly low, well out of an "elect-me" position.

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