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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Steve Carlton

Eligible in 1993.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:03 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:08 AM (#2269126)
Not a consistently great pitcher like Seaver, but that peak and amazing durability sure are impressive.
   2. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:15 AM (#2269129)
1972: 155 PRAR, 15.4 WARP3.

That is all.
   3. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:19 AM (#2269130)
Reposting from the 1993 ballot discussion:

And the winner is . . . Steve Carlton. He beats Niekro, 1.391 to 1.344, and they are currently 9-10 on the all-time rankings (through 1993 eligibles).

Carlton's 1972 really was as huge as they say. I've got it as the best non-Walter Johnson season of all-time among the eligibles. And that's enough to put him past Niekro - the difference between that season and Niekro's 1978 is basically what separates them in the final tally.

Carlton's last 3 years were a complete disaster, dropped his career DRA+ from 117 to 113, which considering he threw 5200 innings is saying something - his career DRA went from 3.84 to 3.99 during those 327.3 innings . . .

Finally, as pitchers I actually have Niekro ever so slightly ahead, 1.356-1.341. Carlton moves ahead because he was +29 runs as a hitter, and Knucksie was -9. As an example, that's enough to offset Niekro's entire 1968 season.

So using OCF's chart from post #37, I get:

Seaver > Carlton > Niekro > Gibson > Perry > Sutton > Jenkins > Palmer.

*************

Some other interesting Carlton facts some you already knew, some maybe you didn't . . .

I get his 3-year peak at 1980-82, but it's cleverly disguised by the strike. Pretty wild to throw the greatest non-Walter Johnson season ever, then have your 3-year peak 8-10 years later. He was that good. That 1980 season was pretty incredible. I believe he was the last pitcher to throw 300 innings that year, and he did it will throwing at a 159 DRA+ and he topped it off throwing 27.3 post-season innings where he gave up just 7 ER and won a World Series. That's a season.

1981-83 was his second best 3-year run, followed by 1972-74 and 1970-72.

There really were some clunkers in the middle, he was below average in 1973 and 1975, nothing special in 1970-71, 1978-79.

He had as many big seasons as anyone, they were just spread out a little more than usual - he does much better on "any 5-seasons" peak (9th all-time) than 3-consecutive (tied for 20th).
   4. mulder & scully Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:22 AM (#2269224)
I thought people might like to see Carlton's age 19 season, first professional stop. With Rock Hill in the Western Carolina League, Carlton started 11 games, went 10 - 1 with a 1.03 ERA. He threw 79 innings and gave up 39 hits. He struck out 91 and walked 36.

The Cards moved him up to Winnipeg in the Northern League, high A (?). He started 12 games, went 4 - 4 with a 3.36 ERA. Threw 79 innings and gave up 63 hits. He struck out 79 and walked 48.

His ERA was helped in both locations because of unearned runs. In Rock Hill, he gave up 9 earned runs and 8 unearned. In Winnipeg, he gave up 28 earned and 12 unearned.

The Cards advanced him to AA at the end of year. He got in 4 games, went 1 - 1 with a 2.63 ERA. In 24 innings, he gave up 16 hits, walked 18, and struck out 21.

Between 3 teams, he pitched 178 innings, went 15 - 6 with a 2.22 ERA. He gave up 118 hits, walked 102 and struck out 191. He gave up 26 unearned runs.

Some great numbers, but was Carlton a dominating S O B at his first stop?

I hope everyone's Christmas was wonderful.
   5. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:33 AM (#2269226)
M&S - check out Clemens' numbers from 1983 when you get a chance . . .

Low minor league pitchers are always going to give up a lot of UR - the fielding is terrible.
   6. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:42 AM (#2269228)
OK - I'll share the Clemens numbers . . .

Winter Haven, HiA - 4 starts. 29 IP, 22 H, but here's the doozy - 36 K, 0 BB. He gave up 4 runs.

Off to AA New Britian - 7 starts, 52 IP, 59 K, 12 BB. 8 runs allowed on 31 hits.

In 1984 he starts in AAA, where he makes 6 starts and 1 relief appearance, 46.7 IP, 50 K, 14 BB. 12 R and 39 H.

So after 18 G, 17 GS, he's at 127.7 IP, 147 K, 26 BB. He gave up 4 HR, 92 H and 24 R, 22 ER. 1.55 ERA.

So his typical game was 7 1/3, 5 or 6 hits, 1 run, 8 or 9 K and a walk or 2. Every 4 or 5 games he'd give up a HR, every 3 games he might give up 2 runs instead of 1.

That's just insane domination.
   7. Alex meets the threshold for granular review Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:57 AM (#2269233)
Clemens 1983:

+----+-------+------+----+----+----+----+
Lg |  ERA  |  IP  H  K  BB HR |
+----+-------+------+----+----+----+----+
A+ |  1.24 |  29  22 36 0  0  |
AA |  1.38 |  52  31 59 12 1  |
+----+-------+------+----+----+----+----+
Yr |  1.33 |  81  53 95 12 1  |
+----+-------+------+----+----+----+----+ 


And just for kicks...

Gooden, 1983:

+----+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+----+
Lg |  ERA  |  IP  |  H  |  K  BB  HR |
+----+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+----+
A+ |  2.50 191  121 300 112 | ?  |
+----+-------+------+-----+-----+-----+----+ 


Rick Ankiel, 1998 and 1999:

+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
Lg |  ERA  |   IP  |  H  |  K  BB  HR |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
A  |  2.06 |   35  |  15 |  41 12  0  |
A+ |  2.79 |  126  |  91 181 38  8  |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
Yr |  2.63 |  161  106 222 50  8  |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
AA |  0.91 |  49.1 |  25 |  75 16  2  |
3A |  3.16 |  88.1 |  73 119 46  7  |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
Yr |  2.35 137.2 |  98 194 62  9  |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+ 


Tom Seaver, 1966:

+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
Lg |  ERA  |   IP  |  H  |  K  BB  HR |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+
3A |  3.13 210.0 184 188 66  | ?  |
+----+-------+-------+-----+-----+-----+----+ 


Fernando Valenzuela, 1978:

+----+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
Lg |  ERA  IP H  K  BB HR |
+----+-------+----+----+----+----+----+
3A 2.23  93 88 91 46 | ?  |
+----+-------+----+----+----+----+----+ 
   8. Mike Webber Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:39 PM (#2269417)
When Carlton first hit the ballot discussion thread I wanted to make a point about how he was like Randy Johnson only with a lot more IP. A scary LHP with an unhittable slider, though his fastball was only "great" as opposed to scary.

CAREER Top 20 all-time


INNINGS PITCHED                 IP     
1    Cy Young                 7356     
2    Pud Galvin               5941.1   
3    Walter Johnson           5914.2   
4    Phil Niekro              5404.1   
5    Nolan Ryan               5386     
6    Gaylord Perry            5350.1   
7    Don Sutton               5282.1   
8    Warren Spahn             5245.2   
9    Steve Carlton            5217.1   
10   Grover C Alexander       5189     
11   Kid Nichols              5057     
12   Tim Keefe                5052.1   
13   Bert Blyleven            4970     
14   Roger Clemens            4817.2   
15   Mickey Welch             4802     
16   Tom Seaver               4782.2   
17   Christy Mathewson        4780.1   
18   Tommy John               4710.1   
19   Robin Roberts            4689     
20   Greg Maddux              4616.1   

CAREER
1920
-2006


INNINGS PITCHED                 IP     
1    Phil Niekro              5404.1   
2    Nolan Ryan               5386     
3    Gaylord Perry            5350.1   
4    Don Sutton               5282.1   
5    Warren Spahn             5245.2   
6    Steve Carlton            5217.1   
7    Bert Blyleven            4970     
8    Roger Clemens            4817.2   
9    Tom Seaver               4782.2   
10   Tommy John               4710.1   
11   Robin Roberts            4689     
12   Greg Maddux              4616.1   
13   Early Wynn               4566     
14   Jim Kaat                 4530.1   
15   Ferguson Jenkins         4500.2   
16   Red Ruffing              4342     
17   Frank Tanana             4188.1   
18   Ted Lyons                4161.2   
19   Tom Glavine              4149.2   
20   Dennis Martinez          3999.2 


In some ways the 2nd list makes the first list less impressive.

If you see 9th on the all-time list, and you think "WOW!"

But when you get rid of the really old guys, you see Carlton is only 5th among his contemporaries (throwing out Spahn).

Interesting stuff to me.
   9. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: December 28, 2006 at 04:40 PM (#2269968)
Between 3 teams, he pitched 178 innings, went 15 - 6 with a 2.22 ERA. He gave up 118 hits, walked 102 and struck out 191. He gave up 26 unearned runs.

So he was a pretty good prospect, huh? ; )
   10. Paul Wendt Posted: December 30, 2006 at 06:09 PM (#2271396)
If you see 9th on the all-time list, and you think "WOW!"

But when you get rid of the really old guys, you see Carlton is only 5th among his contemporaries (throwing out Spahn).


Fifth among near-equals, about 30% closer to first than to sixth with a similar gap between sixth and seventh.

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