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Thursday, January 11, 2018

Todd Helton

Eligible in 2019

DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2018 at 02:39 PM | 7 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 11, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5604834)
Player WAA WAR
Helton 32.8 61.2
Beckley 26.4 61.5
Hernandez 31.6 60.0
W Clark 28.8 56.2
B Terry 31.8 54.2
Sisler 22.4 54.5
Palmeiro 30.1 71.6

N Cash 25.9 52.0
Ben Taylor 34.6 69.9 (Chalek MLE)
   2. Carl Goetz Posted: January 11, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5604853)
I don't think he's a no-brainer type, but he's in for me. I feel he got less MVP votes over his career (particularly the 2000-04 peak period) than he should of. He's my NL MVP in 2000.
   3. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 12, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5605490)
Reposted from the 2018 Discussion Thread - because this has a pretty big impact on my view of Todd Helton:

I found a mistake in my calculation of (context-neutral) eWins - basically, I wasn't controlling for ballpark effects. I have corrected this on my website. Apologies for the error. Explanation here; examples of the impact here. My apologies for this.
   4. The Honorable Ardo Posted: January 12, 2018 at 08:04 PM (#5605770)
Helton will become the only member of the Hall of Merit to suffer an injury and lose his job to Peyton Manning.
   5. Bleed the Freak Posted: January 17, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5608417)
Thanks for the update Kiko, losing 7 WORL is ~10 WAR, and makes him a candidate a little shy of HOM level.
An uberstat construction using 1/3 p, 2/3 e wins, zeroing out negative seasons:
http://baseball.tomthress.com/Leaders/UberLeaders.php?y1=1925&y2=2017&p=.33333&e=.666666&w=0.1328&a=2.0059&aa=6.5704&r=1&na=0&naa=0&nr=0&c=1.1926&b1=0.9393&b2=0.9874&b3=0.9393&ss=0.9393&lf=0.9393&cf=0.9393&rf=0.9393&dh=0.9393&ph=0.9393&pr=0.9393&o1=0.9296&sp=0.9296&rp=1.3321&psw=1&psa=1&psr=1>=162&ga=1&n=500

What are your thoughts?
Baseball Reference shows him as a mid-level hall guy, while Baseball Gauge is maybe upper portion of the bottom 1/3 tier.

   6. Kiko Sakata Posted: January 17, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5608440)
Helton looks like he's probably going to be off my ballot, probably by quite a bit (he's maybe top 75-100; maybe top 50 at an upside). Obviously, the park adjustment hurt him, but I'm pretty sure that I trust the new numbers.

Helton's big problem from my perspective essentially is that he's not really unique enough. There are a ton of good hitting first baseman types sitting out there, both through history - Gil Hodges, Dolph Camilli, Jack Clark (not to mention a bunch of guys who are already in the HOM and/or HOF, of course) - and, especially over the past 20-30 years.

Being fairly generous in the definition of "contemporary", these guys were all essentially contemporaries of Helton that fit the same broad profile:

(**) - already in Hall of Merit
(*) - not eligible yet

Jeff Bagwell (**)
Frank Thomas (**)
Mark McGwire (**)
Jim Thome (**)
Edgar Martinez (**) (if one groups 1B and DH together - ditto for the Big Hurt, of course)
Albert Pujols (*)
Jason Giambi (*)
Lance Berkman
Fred McGriff
Carlos Delgado
John Olerud

Maybe more, depending on how wide a timeframe you're looking to cover (I considered David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto and left them off thinking I might be taking in too wide a time frame).

I think Helton's a better candidate than at least a couple of these guys (Delgado, Olerud), but not by a huge amount. Berkman has the postseason numbers and significant time as an outfielder, which lowers the positional average against which he's being compared. And that is still probably going to leave him (just) off ballot for me this year. I suspect I'll like Giambi when he becomes eligible, and, of course, I would guess that everybody will have Pujols on the top of their ballots five years after he finally retires.

I'm not inclined to argue too strongly against Helton if others put him on their ballots. The uniqueness of Coors Field certainly increases the error bars on how we should best value his career. But, for me, I'm pretty comfortable with him falling into that 50-100 range of "good, solid player, worthy of remembering; but ultimately not a HOF/HOM-er".
   7. Jaack Posted: January 17, 2018 at 09:14 PM (#5608510)
Two things to work through for me with Helton

1. His defensive numbers are across the board pretty good to outstanding, particularly DRA. That being said, I'm juuust a bit sceptical that a First Baseman can be 20 runs above average defensively at Coors Field in the early 2000s.

2. Helton has some astonishing RE24 numbers. For example, his 2000 season is the best offensive, non-Bonds season since 1974. RE24 is naturally adjusted for run environment, but I am weary about it at the extremes - there does seem a bit of a bias towards Coors and towards the 2000 and 2001 seasons.

I was initially planning of Helton appearing in the mid section of my ballot, but there are enough questions here that I'm not feeling quite as confident in that anymore.

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