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Sunday, February 11, 2007

Tommy John

Eligible in 1995.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 11, 2007 at 09:27 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 11, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2295659)
Since you know I'm not crazy about Sutton, you can probably guess how I feel about Tommy. :-)

With that said, he was a quality player and was a hard guy to dislike personally.

trevise should be posting in about 10...9...8... :-D
   2. BDC Posted: February 12, 2007 at 02:10 AM (#2295787)
True fact: Tommy John was the Opening Day starter for both the 1966 Chicago White Sox and the 1989 New York Yankees. I think he passes that Keltner question about playing regularly past one's prime ...
   3. OCF Posted: February 12, 2007 at 04:06 AM (#2295828)
RA+ equivalent record of 281-244. Compare Sutton at 320-267 and Kaat at 262-241. My "big years score" for pitcher is simply the sum of the equivalent FWP on a season-by-season basis that they had above 15. On that, Sutton scores 21 (which is fairly low as these things go; Kaat scores 13 and John score 3 (all of it for his equivalent 19-11 in 1979.) If Sutton is peakless, what does that make John? I like Sutton, and I gave him a high vote. I see a rather large gap between Sutton and John.

What does John's defensive support look like? He's an archetype of a pitcher who depends on defensive support.
   4. DavidFoss Posted: February 12, 2007 at 04:07 AM (#2295829)
When I was a kid we used to call him "Thomas Jonathan" :-)
   5. Chris Cobb Posted: February 12, 2007 at 04:37 AM (#2295836)
What does John's defensive support look like? He's an archetype of a pitcher who depends on defensive support.

Almost exactly neutral for his career.

Based on RSI with no adjustment for fielding, I have him as 19.5 wins above average for his career. With an adjustment for fielding, I have him at 19.5 wins above average for his career. No change at all.

That'd be 282-243 by OCF's # of decisions, so our assessments of John's career are darn near identical.

WARP1 shows John's NRA (with defense included) as 4.24, his DERA (defense-neutral) as 4.25, so their defensive measures are pretty much in agreement with mine in this case.

I have John between Kaat and Sutton. He has less peak even than Kaat, but his career is significantly better. He trails Sutton on both career and peak.

Sutton I have as a solid HoMer, Kaat as slightly but clearly below the in-out line, with John as right on the borderline. I am very interested to see what more analysis turns up, as John could now end up anywhere between 10 and 25 in my rankings.
   6. Howie Menckel Posted: February 12, 2007 at 04:48 AM (#2295839)
Sutton vs John vs sample HOM group:

SAMPLE HOM GROUP
RWaddell 179 79 65 53 26 25 23 21 07 02
Marichal 169 66 65 44 32 22 19 16 13 00
JBunning 150 49 43 42 34 32 29 14 14 04
BiPierce 201 48 41 36 33 24 15 13 08 07 07 05 04 03
Drysdale 154 49 40 29 28 22 18 17 15 13
EarlWynn 154 42 36 35 26 18 15 10 09 03
EppRixey 144 43 43 39 36 29 24 15 15 13 10 09 09 06
DoSutton 161 59 42 27 26 21 19 12 11 10 10 07 06 02 01
TommJohn 154 38 38 37 25 20 19 19 16 14 11 10 09 09 06 03 00

John's 154 comes in 1968 in 177 IP, which is quite low for that season. He has only one top-10 IP season above 120 ERA+.

RWaddell top 10 in IP: 3 4 4 10
Marichal top 10 in IP: 1 1 3 5 5 6 8 8
JBunning top 10 in IP: 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 8
BiPierce top 10 in IP: 3 3 3 5 5 7
Drysdale top 10 in IP: 1 1 2 2 4 5 5 5 9 9 10
EarlWynn top 10 in IP: 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 6 6 6 6 7
EppRixey top 10 in IP: 1 3 3 3 4 7 8 8 9 9
DoSutton top 10 in IP: 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 9 10
TommJohn top 10 in IP: 2 5 8 10

Throwing in a couple of contenders
BWalters 168 52 46 40 27 23 07
LuiTiant 184 69 32 28 25 20 19 05 02 02 00
BuGrimes 153 44 38 36 31 23 08 08 08 03
DoSutton 161 59 42 27 26 21 19 12 11 10 10 07 06 02 01
TommJohn 154 38 38 37 25 20 19 19 16 14 11 10 09 09 06 03 00

BWalters top 10 in IP: 1 1 1 4 6 6 8 8
LuiTiant top 10 in IP: 6 7 8
BuGrimes top 10 in IP: 1 1 1 3 3 4 7 9 9 9
DoSutton top 10 in IP: 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 9 10
TommJohn top 10 in IP: 2 5 8 10

Kaat didn't even make these lists; maybe that's a good battle, but not to get onto my ballot.
You need peak and/or workhorse to get into the consideration set. This is a nice pitcher who often pitched well but not that often.
   7. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: February 12, 2007 at 06:09 AM (#2295863)
Does he get any credit for putting himself through an experimental surgerial technique that now bears his name? That's one Keltner list question.

In June-July 1967, in the early phases of one of the tightest pennant races ever, Tommy John started 11 games, completing six - five for shutouts. In 71.3 IP he walked 16 and allowed 43 hits, only one of which was a homer. Meanwhile, he K'd 45. Only 11 of the 14 runs he allowed was earned, for a 1.39 ERA. Over two months. Incredibly, he only went 5-4 in those games. The Sox scored 22 runs in those 11 games; 6 in one day. (looks closer). From June 4 to July 8 he allowed 7 ER in 64 IP for a 0.98 ERA. He then lasted 0.7 IP on July 12 (only 2 runs allowed). Out there two days later he allowed 3 runs (1 earned) in 6.3 IP. He faced only two batters in his next start before leaving with what I can only assume was an injury. He didn't pitch for four weeks. When his great stretch ended on July 8, the Sox were in first by 3 games. Before coming back, they were two games out of first.

And in maybe the game's most overlooked facet in the HoM, in 9 postseason series in went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 88.3 IP.
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: February 12, 2007 at 12:23 PM (#2295896)
Does he get any credit for putting himself through an experimental surgerial technique that now bears his name?

Yes, Chris. I give him credit for everything he did after the surgery.

Beyond that? No. ;-)
   9. DL from MN Posted: February 12, 2007 at 03:51 PM (#2295939)
I thought it was interesting that Tommy John and Jack Quinn ended up side by side in my rankings.

I agree that postseason performance is generally overlooked here which is a shame. The problem is there is no systematic database of valuations of postseason performance to pull from. I'd hate to forget to give credit to someone. I'd love to add PRAA, FRAA and BRAA credits for everyone but I've never bothered with calculating them myself.
   10. Ardo Posted: December 06, 2012 at 06:59 AM (#4318400)
Bump for Tommy John (from the 2012 ballot discussion thread):

Badly underestimated by the electorate. Low K/9 rates, but inducing double plays is a repeatable skill and John did it as well as anybody. Above the HoM threshold for starting pitchers.

John through his age-39 season (1982): 3709 IP, 118 ERA+
Rick Reuschel, career: 3548 IP, 114 ERA+

John has better defensive support than Reuschel, and his career is centered earlier in the '70s (easier to accumulate IP). Account for those factors and the two are of equivalent merit.

Age 40 and up, John has exactly 1000 IP of 92 ERA+, which "zeros out" in terms of HoM value; it shouldn't help or hurt his case.
   11. AndrewJ Posted: December 06, 2012 at 08:53 AM (#4318413)
He pitched during seven different U.S. Presidencies. Someone in MLB doing that today would've had to start playing in 1976. :)

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