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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Tony Fernandez, Bobby Bonilla, Wally Joyner and Ken Caminiti

All of these infielders are eligible in 2007.

Tony Fernandez

Bobby Bonilla

Wally Joyner

Ken Caminiti

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2007 at 08:12 PM | 56 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2007 at 08:19 PM (#2586463)
At this time, none of them appeal to me as great players, though Fernandez may have the best case.
   2. DCW3 Posted: October 21, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2586486)
But Wally Joyner may have been the greatest first baseman of all time!
   3. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: October 21, 2007 at 08:36 PM (#2586493)
Wally Joyner: The Best 1st Baseman Ever?

Seriously


Yeah. Seriously deluded, that is.
   4. Juan V Posted: October 21, 2007 at 08:55 PM (#2586519)
Eyeballing it, Tony Fernandez has the most intersting case. Maybe he'll even pick up a vote here or there...
   5. rawagman Posted: October 21, 2007 at 09:11 PM (#2586534)
Best game I ever went to. July 3, 1988, Exhibition Stadium. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics.
Bottom of the ninth inning and the Jays were trailing 6-5. Canseco had already hit two home runs. Two out, bases empty and Manny Lee stepped to the plate against Dennis Eckersley. People are starting to leave their seats.
Lee hits a grounder to the left side of the infield. Carney Lansford picks up the ball and more people leave their seats with their eyes on the exit. Lansford chucks the ball into the seats.

Now Lee is on second and Tony Fernandez stepped into the batter's box. He smashed a line drive double into the outfield (I forget which part) and we were tied at 6. He was stranded and we skip forward to the 12th inning. Canseco had crushed his third home run of the night in the top half, giving the A's an 8-6 lead. In the bottom half, Manny Lee stepped up again. This time he was good for a clean single. Next up, our man Tony. Not trusting the heart of the order, Fernandez put the ball in the seats for his third homerun of the season tying the game up at 8.

Finally, we arrived at the 16th inning. Mark McGwire put in his share of bash with a solo shot to put the A's up by a run.
In the bottom of the 16th, with the heart of the Bue Jay order up, IIRC, Fernandez and Geroge Bell were on with one out. First Kelly Gruber and then Fred McGriff. Both grounded out weakly and the Jays lost 9-8.
Todd Burns got the win - the first of his career, and the late John Cerutti was tagged with the loss.
I was nine years old. Retrosheet confirmed my memory of events almost perfectly - I only erred thinking it was Mkie Gallego who threw the ball away.
   6. AJMcCringleberry Posted: October 22, 2007 at 12:27 AM (#2586797)
My rankings:

Fernandez
Bonilla
Caminiti

Joyner

I don't even have Joyner in my consideration set.
   7. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: October 22, 2007 at 11:57 AM (#2588534)
Finally, we arrived at the 16th inning. Mark McGwire put in his share of bash with a solo shot to put the A's up by a run.

I remember this game! It's funny because I was supposed to wash my mom's car adn I told her I'd do it after the game, but the game went so long she told me to do it the next day. So the next day I start watching the Oakland-Cleveland game and I tell her the same thing, that I'll wash the car when the game is over. And damn if THAT game didn't go 16 innings, too, with McGwire winning the game with another home run in the 16th. Holy crap was that a fun two days of baseball. I don't think I ever ended up washing the car.
   8. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 22, 2007 at 01:35 PM (#2588583)
I don't think I ever ended up washing the car.

Your mom should've just called Jeff Kent to do it.
   9. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: October 22, 2007 at 01:44 PM (#2588593)
Your mom should've just called Jeff Kent to do it.

What are you trying to say about my mother? GRRR!!!!!
   10. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: October 22, 2007 at 06:48 PM (#2589087)
Wally is not the greatest first baseman of all time, but he was a very good and somewhat underrated player for a long time. He is my favorite player of all time, and only now, with Casey Kotchman, have the Angels come close to filling his shoes at the cold corner: no Angel 1B has managed an OPS+ of 120 or better in a season since Wally departed.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 06:59 PM (#2589112)
Wally is easily the second best Mormon first baseman in MLB history behind Harmon Killebrew.

I used to think of Wally Joyner as a terrible hitter because when he was in KC, he never hit for any home run power. In retrospect, he was a good .300 hitter who could draw a walk, rarely struck out, plugged the gaps with doubles and played superb defense. He played with KC in an era in which home runs were becoming pretty important - had he begun his career maybe 5-10 years earlier, he would have been a pretty terrific player for his era.
   12. Mike Green Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:08 PM (#2589137)
Fernandez/Lundy might make an interesting comparison. Lundy was apparently the better fielder, but Fernandez was pretty impressive himself.
   13. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:17 PM (#2589164)
If the MLE's are accurate Lundy is faaaar superior to Fernández.
   14. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: October 22, 2007 at 07:31 PM (#2589215)
Also, Wally's first year with KC was the worst year he ever had. He was pretty solid after that.
   15. yest Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:37 PM (#2590171)
* Wally Joyner's career hit total of 2,060 is higher than that of 40 Hall of Fame position players (Johnny Bench, Roger Bresnahan, Roy Campanella, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Buck Ewing, Rick Ferrell, Gabby Hartnett, Ernie Lombardi, Ray Schalk, Frank Chance, Hank Greenberg, George Kelly, Johnny Mize, Bobby Doerr, Johnny Evers, Tony Lazzeri, Bill Mazeroski, Jackie Robinson, Frank Baker, Jimmy Collins, George Kell, Fred Lindstrom, Dave Bancroft, Lou Boudreau, Travis Jackson, Hughie Jennings, Phil Rizzuto, Joe Tinker, Chick Hafey, Ralph Kiner, Earl Averill, Earle Combs, Larry Doby, Hack Wilson, Elmer Flick, King Kelly, Tommy McCarthy, Sam Thompson, and Ross Youngs)
* Wally Joyner's career home run total of 204 is higher than that of 34 Hall of Fame position players who played after the dead-ball era (Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Rick Ferrell, Ernie Lombardi, Bill Terry, Rod Carew, Nellie Fox, Charlie Gehringer, Billy Herman, Tony Lazzeri, Bill Mazeroski, Jackie Robinson, Red Schoendienst, George Kell, Fred Lindstrom, Pie Traynor, Luis Aparicio, Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau, Joe Cronin, Travis Jackson, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Joe Sewell, Ozzie Smith, Arky Vaughn, Lou Brock, Chick Hafey, Heinie Manush, Richie Ashburn, Earle Combs, Lloyd Waner, Kiki Cuyler, Enos Slaughter, and Paul Waner)
* Wally Joyner's career RBI (Runs Batted In) total of 1,106 is higher than that of 31 Hall of Fame position players who played after the dead-ball era (Roy Campanella, Mickey Cochrane, Rick Ferrell, Ernie Lombardi, Bill Terry, Rod Carew, Nellie Fox, Billy Herman, Bill Mazeroski, Jackie Robinson, Ryne Sandberg, Red Schoendienst, George Kell, Fred Lindstrom, Luis Aparicio, Lou Boudreau, Travis Jackson, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Joe Sewell, Ozzie Smith, Arky Vaughn, Lou Brock, Chick Hafey, Ralph Kiner, Richie Ashburn, Earle Combs, Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Lloyd Waner, Hack Wilson, and Kiki Cuyler)
* Wally Joyner's career 2B (Double) total of 409 is higher than that of 74 Hall of Fame position players (Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Roger Bresnahan, Roy Campanella, Gary Carter, Mickey Cochrane, Bill Dickey, Buck Ewing, Rick Ferrell, Gabby Hartnett, Ernie Lombardi, Ray Schalk, Frank Chance, Hank Greenberg, George Kelly, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Johnny Mize, Bill Terry, Bobby Doerr, Johnny Evers, Nellie Fox, Tony Lazzeri, Bill Mazeroski, Bid McPhee, Jackie Robinson, Ryne Sandberg, Frank Baker, Jimmy Collins, George Kell, Fred Lindstrom, Eddie Matthews, Mike Schmidt, Pie Traynor, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Ernie Banks, Lou Boudreau, Travis Jackson, Hughie Jennings, Rabbit Maranville, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Ozzie Smith, Joe Tinker, Arky Vaughn, Bobby Wallace, John Ward, Jesse Burkett, Fred Clarke, Chick Hafey, Joe Kelley, Ralph Kiner, Jim O'Rourke, Richie Ashburn, Earl Averill, Earle Combs, Joe DiMaggio, Larry Doby, Hugh Duffy, Billy Hamilton, Mickey Mantle, Edd Roush, Duke Snider, Lloyd Waner, Hack Wilson, Kiki Cuyler, Elmer Flick, Harry Hooper, Willie Keeler, King Kelley, Chuck Klein, Tommy McCarthy, Sam Thompson, and Ross Youngs)
* Wally Joyner's career batting average of .289 is higher than that of 41 Hall of Fame position players (Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Roger Bresnahan, Roy Campanella, Gary Carter, Rick Ferrell, Carlton Fisk, Ray Schalk, Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Eddie Murray, Bobby Doerr, Johnny Evers, Nellie Fox, Bill Mazeroski, Bid McPhee, Joe Morgan, Ryne Sandberg, Eddie Matthews, Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Luis Aparicio, Dave Bancroft, Ernie Banks, Rabbit Maranville, Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Ozzie Smith, Joe Tinker, Bobby Wallace, John Ward, Robin Yount, Ralph Kiner, Willie Stargell, Carl Yastrzemski, Max Carey, Larry Doby, Harry Hooper, Reggie Jackson, and Dave Winfield)


wonder how many other non hall of famers cam match that 50?
   16. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:42 PM (#2590178)
Tony should have had his own thread :-) I think he's a reasonable candidate actually . . .
   17. yest Posted: October 23, 2007 at 03:45 PM (#2590185)
does anyone know what's with Tony's Toronto fluctuating stats?
   18. Jim Sp Posted: October 23, 2007 at 04:34 PM (#2590250)
Anyone know how Tony did in Japan in 2000?

Every system I've had put him surprisingly high. I have to admit I never really imagined him as HoF candidate.

I don't think he'll make my ballot but he's HoVG.
   19. JPWF13 Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:08 PM (#2590294)
Every system I've had put him surprisingly high. I have to admit I never really imagined him as HoF candidate.


He had a funny career shape, he was just on the cusp of being recognized by the MSM as a star level player when he took a ten year hiatus from hitting .300.

Aside from 1995 never had a real stinker of a season- his career averages for someone with h8s "peak" and longevity are better than someone with his peak "should" have.

Overall comparable to Concepcion, Concepcion had a better peak, but aside from 1995, every season Tony had as a regular was better than about 7-8 of Concepcion's poorer seasons.
Virtually every season of his career (1985 to 1999) was between 91 and 124 OPS+. The sole outlier was a 75 clunker for the Yankees. In a way his career is comparable to a 1B who hit between 111 and 144 and ended up at 120 after 15 years (Mark Grace?)...

By way of comparison, Tony's WORST single "regular" season OPS+ was 75. Neifi's career high was 75.
Tony's worst 502+ PA mark was 95. Concepcion was at 88 for his career. Vizquel is at 84. Aparico 82, Ozzie 87... Obviously some had a significant defensive edge on Tony, but Tony was for many years a better than average defender.

He's very unusual in that he never really had decline phase, he was almost as good 10 years after his "peak" as he was in his "peak", his best hitting years came near the end, well after his best defensive years...

I think if he'd came along 15-20 years earlier he'd be in the HOF.

I wonder what the mediots who've been pimping lately for Vizquel's candidacy think about Tony...
   20. sunnyday2 Posted: October 23, 2007 at 05:51 PM (#2590360)
>* Wally Joyner's career hit total of 2,060 is higher than that of 40 Hall of Fame position players

All of whom are exactly the sort of mistakes that make Cooperstown such a joke, or they were players who had other skills. As a player whose base hits are most of his resume, 2,060 is pretty feeble. I am shocked that is all it is. You made me look it up. I assumed that was a typo and it must be 2,600. A 1B with no power and 2,060 hits. Ha ha ha. Still I can see he's gonna get a vote.

Gotta agree, a SS with 200 more hits than Wally Joyner adds up to twice the ballplayer.
   21. OCF Posted: October 23, 2007 at 06:10 PM (#2590387)
Mark McGwire had 1626 hits.

[And 3342 "secondary bases." Only 1043 of his hits even stayed in the ballpark.]
   22. Dizzypaco Posted: October 23, 2007 at 06:20 PM (#2590403)
Wally Joyner's career numbers are virtually identical to Jeff Conine. Except that Conine's still playing...
   23. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 23, 2007 at 07:35 PM (#2590517)
In Wally's defense, he put them up in a tougher era than Conine.
   24. Cooper Nielson Posted: October 24, 2007 at 09:17 AM (#2591124)
I don't actually vote here, but I find this place interesting and I read all of the election results.

Here's something I posted about Tony Fernandez last November when discussing the "real" Hall of Fame election:

I'll second the Tony Fernandez vote. Deep in my heart I know he's not REALLY a Hall-of-Famer, but he was always one of my favorite players he's got a better argument than most people realize:

2276 career hits
4 Gold Gloves
5-time All-Star
.327/.367/.420 in the postseason, including .395/.432/.447 in the World Series
Career record for fielding percentage as a SS (I think?)
3 of his top 10 comps are in the HOF, and Trammell should be

Maybe he doesn't deserve it, but he wouldn't be an embarrassment either.
   25. Juan V Posted: October 24, 2007 at 10:41 PM (#2592051)
Anyone know how Tony did in Japan in 2000?


I was about to ask just that. He should get credit for that season, but I don't know how much.
   26. TomH Posted: October 25, 2007 at 11:53 AM (#2592860)
I also think Tony F is strikingly similar to Concepcion in total career shape and value. Win Shares sees him actually as substantially better.

Is Davey C's argument for being in front of Fernandez basically a 'value over ability' argument; that shortstops were lousier in the 70s?
   27. rawagman Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:11 PM (#2592865)
I just ran the number last night during the slaughter at Fenway and found Fernandez to have very similar value to Phil Rizutto - including war credit.
   28. rawagman Posted: October 25, 2007 at 07:03 PM (#2593377)
More about Fernandez - As a general rule, I do not give Japan credit unless the player in question was a Japanese national and had no choice but to play in Japan. I suppose I could also dish out theoretical credit if a player was banned from MLB play play and continued to ply the trade in Japan. But vets chasing dollars after their MLB career has petered out (for the most part) or Latin kids in an alternate minor system will get nothing from me.
Even though Fernandez came back to the bigs in 2001, he was a shadow of his former self, leaving me to believe that he would have been little, if any, better in 2000 while he was playing in Japan. No reason to believe that he would have been a meaningful player then, nor do I take a Japanese pennant to be of value in the North American game. Tony's value - and he does have some - comes from what he did in the last century.
   29. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 25, 2007 at 11:12 PM (#2593667)
WRT to Fernandez's career shape, I'll crosspost an illuminating story from a comment on Bill Madlock in the 1993 discussion thread.

My defining moment for Madlock was September 24th, 1987. I've always wondered if his take-out slide into Tony Fernandez might have ruined a possible HOF/HOM career. Now I know that's idle speculation, but if you look at Fernandez's OPS+ through the injury, he was rising quickly from light-hitting gold glover to a very good offensive contributor particularly for a SS (going from OPS+s in the 80s and 90s to a peak of 112 in 1987 itself, his age 26 season). Fernandez missed the rest of 1987, hobbling the sinking Jays' playoff chances, and in the next several years, he lost ground on OPS+, sinking below average. Later, in early 1989, he was beaned in the face by Cecilo Guante, which couldn't have helped either. It wasn't until very late in his career that he had another good OPS+ year, with two straight 120+ years out of nowhere in the late 1990s. Did he peak early and quickly regress? I don't know, but I've always wondered if Madlock's slide turned Fernandez into a HOVG player.
   30. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2593725)
TomH, replacement levels don't really have much to do with it, actually. I have a replacement SS at 3.7 wins below league average per 162 games during Concepción's career, and at 3.5 wins below league average per 162 games while Fernández played shortstop. Not much of a difference.

It's really a straight value above average question. Fernández only has a decade at shortstop, so let's compare him to Concepción's best decade at SS, 1973-82. After adjusting for the DH, I have Fernández with 6.1 batting wins above league average, 1.5 baserunning wins below league average, and 8.2 fielding wins above an average shortstop between 1984 and 1993, for a total of 12.8 wins above average in 9.04 full seasons' worth of play. By contrast, I have Concepción at 4.0 batting wins above league average, 1.4 baserunning wins above league average, and 14.6 fielding wins above an average shortstop, for a total of 20.0 wins above average in 8.97 full seasons' worth of play. The 7-win difference, essentially, is that Fernández was merely a good fielder and Concepción was a superlative one for a decade's worth of play. That's enough to put one on my ballot and the other comfortably off it.
   31. Rob_Wood Posted: October 26, 2007 at 02:26 PM (#2594854)
Wow, I see Fernandez, Concepcion, and Rizzuto all in the same general class of career values well below the consideration set for the Hall of Merit. And this is coming from a voter who has supported Luis Aparicio, Rabbit Maranville, and Nellie Fox.

Fernandez just does not have enough, not enough offense if that is his ticket; not enough defense, and not enough of a career.
   32. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 02:41 PM (#2594878)
I completely disagree w/Rawagman on the Japan issue.

Chasing dollars is what it's all about. I don't see how anyone can ever lose site of that. If a player plays in Japan for a season or three or five, but would have had MLB value during that time had he been here, and has significant MLB contributions at other points in his career, he should get full credit for it, no matter what the circumstances were that caused him to play overseas.

There is zero difference between a guy playing a season in Japan for $$ and Lefty Grove, Gavy Cravath or Earl Averill playing in the IL, AA or PCL.
   33. rawagman Posted: October 26, 2007 at 03:53 PM (#2594980)
Of course there is. An economic decision made at the start of a career, with little or no reputation is much different to a decision made in mid or late career. For Grove, Cravath and Averill, the choice seems to me to have played in the league in question - which in those times was almost as highly regarded as the majors were, or playing in a less established place after already proving ML worth. Much more choice was involved in the Fernandez decision.
   34. sunnyday2 Posted: October 26, 2007 at 03:54 PM (#2594981)
Well, he was Tony Fernandez either way. I don't get the bright line at all. Well, except if the bright line just simply embraced all of his career.
   35. Chris Fluit Posted: October 26, 2007 at 04:10 PM (#2595012)
I agree with rawagman. Alfonso Soriano is a better comp for Grove, Cravath and Averill and I'd be much more likely to give Soriano credit for playing in Japan than I would Tony Fernandez.
   36. TomH Posted: October 26, 2007 at 04:32 PM (#2595039)
three baserunning wins between Davey C and Tony F is enlightening. Agree Dave's 10-year prime is better. Tony's shoulders are better tho.
   37. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 04:40 PM (#2595053)
I have Concepción with a 5-win career value advantage...does that sound right to you, TomH, or would you like me to break it down?
   38. sunnyday2 Posted: October 26, 2007 at 06:35 PM (#2595198)
Doesn't anybody want to talk about Caminiti?

How can they keep McGwire out of the HoF if they're not going to ask Caminiti (ok, his estate) for his MVP back? I mean, they could show it as (vacated) like those NCAA basketball lists.
   39. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 06:42 PM (#2595205)
I see no difference rawagman. He went to the place where he thought he had the best chance to make the most money. Just like I did when I moved to Champaign for a better job.

To act as if playing in MLB should be the only thing that's of any importance is an awfully North American-centrist way to think, isn't it?

Reggie Smith went to Japan, so did Cecil Fielder, Randy Bass and any number of other guys. MLB is not the be all end all.
   40. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 06:43 PM (#2595207)
In your mind is Bobby Valentine unemployed these last few years? He's not here in The States, so we he does has no value? I don't get that at all.
   41. rawagman Posted: October 26, 2007 at 08:33 PM (#2595300)
Joe - if the HOM included Japanese players ala Sadaharu Oh, I would change my tune. As is, I am sticking to the North American game, making exceptions only to North American contributants who were somehow barred from the North American.
   42. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: October 26, 2007 at 08:51 PM (#2595322)
Again, to me, it's a North American Hall of Merit - meaning you have to have significant contributions (however one would define that) in North America.

However, once a player has satisfied that one requirement, everything he did anywhere is taken into account.
   43. rawagman Posted: October 26, 2007 at 09:06 PM (#2595337)
So where does that end? Taken to an admittedly absurd extreme, that would require giving credit to a player for his post-retirement sunday league play. Maybe that level is only 0.001% of value as compared to MLB play, but 20 years of Sunday league play may give that player another handful of MLB hits, or wins or whatever.
Less extreme - if not quite Japan, how about play in Europe?
   44. sunnyday2 Posted: October 26, 2007 at 10:09 PM (#2595400)
How about play in college?
   45. Juan V Posted: October 26, 2007 at 10:54 PM (#2595421)
The key thing to consider (in cases such as this one) is if the player had demostrated a capability of playing in the majors. In Fernandez's case, he had his two highest OPS+ marks right before going to Japan, so IMO that merits taking a look at what he did over there.
   46. Dr. Chaleeko Posted: October 27, 2007 at 12:13 PM (#2595610)
Bobyy Bonilla should get in for extra considerations-playing hearts with Rickey Henderson in the clubhouse while a game was still being played.

Really, hearts? I mean two-handed hearts sounds like it shouldn't be much fun...WHO'S GOT THE QUEEN?????

The key thing to consider (in cases such as this one) is if the player had demostrated a capability of playing in the majors. In Fernandez's case, he had his two highest OPS+ marks right before going to Japan, so IMO that merits taking a look at what he did over there.

Agreed. Larry Doby's Japan year doesn't fit. It comes three years after his last MLB game. But when a guy goes to Japan during his career or ends his career in Japan it makes sense to evaluate those years to see if they demonstrate, as Sunny said, that the player was still a capable MLB-level player. Goose Gossage, for instance, in 1990 or so.
   47. Brent Posted: November 11, 2007 at 06:33 AM (#2611582)
I found a little bit on Fernandez in Japan. According to this article, Fernandez "played in Japan in 2000 where he was the fourth leading hitter in the Pacific League. He batted .327 with 11 home runs and 74 runs batted in for the Seibu Lions."
   48. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: November 11, 2007 at 07:57 AM (#2611592)
This page has Tony Fernandez's complete statline for his 2000 season in Japan. He hit .327/.418/.486 in 103 games.
   49. Brent Posted: November 12, 2007 at 07:36 PM (#2612464)
James - Thanks for the link. This page has team statistics from which we can calculate league averages. In 2000 the Pacific League hit .264/.343/.406. Relative to the league, Fernandez hit 124/122/120, for an OPS+ of 142.

The Pacific League played a 135-game schedule, and my understanding is that they use the DH rule. Do adjustment factors of .95 for batting average and .90 for isolated power and walks sound about right? Translating to the AL, those imply the following MLEs:

G   AB  H   TB  BB+HBP Avg  OBP  SLG
124 456 148 225 64 .325 .402 .493

AVG
OBPSLGOPS+
118  115  111  126 


These MLEs look similar to his 98 and 99 seasons, though with a bit more power.
   50. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: November 14, 2007 at 08:28 AM (#2614239)
Brent,

Those MLEs pass the smell test, though you'd probably want to use a component factor around .60 for home runs and not worry about ISOP, as home runs are ridiculously inflated in Japanese baseball. Using a .60 component factor gives you a .325/.402/.445 line for a 115 OPS+ (on 8 HR in 456 AB), representing a very slight decline in power at age 38, but a perfectly reasonable follow-up to the two previous seasons.
   51. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: November 14, 2007 at 08:56 AM (#2614245)
My really quick MLEs do component adjustments (AVG, 2B, 3B, HR, BB) based on what the average NPB player gains or loses in those categories in MLB, then I adjust for league offense level. I've got Fernandez pegged a little more conservatively at .326/.383/.473 (117 OPS+) in 124 games.
   52. Brent Posted: November 14, 2007 at 01:03 PM (#2614278)
Thanks, James. I haven't worked at all with Japanese baseball, so I appreciate your insights. I'd be interested to know more about "what the average NPB player gains or loses in those categories in MLB."
   53. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:10 AM (#2615346)
Brent,

This site has component adjustments. The poster used these adjustments to make a projection for Akinori Iwamura this season:

Proj: .288/.343/.438
2007: .285/.359/.411
   54. Brent Posted: November 15, 2007 at 04:53 AM (#2615389)
Thanks!

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