Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Hall of Merit > Discussion
Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Thursday, November 17, 2005

Virtual Cy Young Awards, based on MVP Ballots, 1931-66

General conclusions from looking at the 1967-2005 MVP and Cy Young votes.

Relievers finish ahead of starters all the time in the MVP vote, sometimes by wide margins. Unless they 1) win the MVP part by a gigantic margin or 2) have an enormous save total or 3) the starter they beat has a very low point total; the starter wins the Cy Young Award. If a reliever beats a starter by a small margin and both have decent totals in the MVP vote, the starter wins (and usually trounces) him in the Cy Young balloting.

Almost always, the starting pitcher that wins the Cy Young Award finished first in the MVP vote among starters. There have been a few exceptions, generally if the point totals are very low anything can happen.

I’ll explain cases where I deviate from the MVP vote, based on the above. I’ll put in the modern winners too, may as well have them all on one page. If a reliever wins, I’ll put him in italics and give the top starter below.

At some point I’ll take a crack at the pre-1931 Awards, but they are tougher with no MVP vote, maybe I’ll just add Bill Deane’s to this list when I get a chance.

1931 - AL - Lefty Grove (Phi)          NL - Ed Brandt (Bos)
1932 - AL - Lefty Grove* (Phi)         NL - Lon Warneke (Chi)
1933 - AL - Lefty Grove (Phi)          NL - Carl Hubbell (NY)
1934 - AL - Lefty Gomez (NY)           NL - Dizzy Dean (StL)
1935 - AL - Wes Ferrell (Bos)          NL - Dizzy Dean (StL)
1936 - AL - Tommy Bridges* (Det)       NL - Carl Hubbell (NY)
1937 - AL - Lefty Gomez* (NY)          NL - Carl Hubbell (NY)
1938 - AL - Red Ruffing (NY)           NL - Bill Lee (Chi)
1939 - AL - Bob Feller (Cle)           NL - Bucky Walters (Cin)
1940 - AL - Bob Feller (Cle)           NL - Bucky Walters (Cin)
1941 - AL - Bob Feller (Cle)           NL - Whit Wyatt (Bro)
1942 - AL - Tiny Bonham (NY)           NL - Mort Cooper (StL)
1943 - AL - Spud Chandler (NY)         NL - Mort Cooper* (StL)
1944 - AL - Hal Newhouser* (Det)       NL - Bucky Walters* (Cin)
1945 - AL - Hal Newhouser (Det)        NL - Red Barrett (Bos/StL)
1946 - AL - Hal Newhouser (Det)        NL - Howie Pollet (StL)
1947 - AL - Bob Feller* (Cle)          NL - Ewell Blackwell (Cin)
1948 - AL - Bob Lemon (Cle)            NL - Johnny Sain (Bos)
1949 - AL - Mel Parnell* (Bos)         NL - Warren Spahn (Bos)
1950 - AL - Bob Lemon (Cle)            NL - Jim Konstanty* (Phi)
1951 - AL - Ned Garver* (StL)          NL - Sal Maglie* (NY)
1952 - AL - Bobby Shantz (Phi)         NL - Robin Roberts* (Phi)
1953 - AL - Virgil Trucks* (StL/Chi)   NL - Warren Spahn (Mil)
1954 - AL - Bob Lemon (Cle)            NL - Johnny Antonelli (NY)
1955 - AL - Whitey Ford (NY)*          NL - Robin Roberts (Phi)
1956 - AL - Billy Pierce (Chi)         NL - Don Newcombe (Bro)
1957 - AL - Jim Bunning (Det)          NL - Warren Spahn (Mil)
1958 - AL - Bob Turley (NY)            NL - Warren Spahn (Mil)
1959 - AL - Early Wynn (Chi)           NL - Sam Jones (SF)
1960 - AL - Jim Perry* (Cle)           NL - Vern Law* (Pit)
1961 - AL - Whitey Ford (NY)           NL - Warren Spahn* (Mil)
1962 - AL - Ralph Terry* (NY)          NL - Don Drysdale (LA)
1963 - AL - Whitey Ford (NY)           NL - Sandy Koufax (LA)
1964 - AL - Dean Chance (LA)           NL - Larry Jackson* (Chi)
1965 - AL - Mudcat Grant* (Min)        NL - Sandy Koufax (LA)
1966 - AL - Jim Kaat (Min)             NL - Sandy Koufax (LA)
1967 - AL - Jim Lonborg (Bos)          NL - Mike McCormick (SF)
1968 - AL - Denny McLain (Det)         NL - Bob Gibson (StL)
1969 - AL - McLain (Det)/Cuellar (Bal) NL - Tom Seaver (NY)
1970 - AL - Jim Perry (Min)            NL - Bob Gibson (StL)
1971 - AL - Vida Blue (Oak)            NL - Ferguson Jenkins (Chi)
1972 - AL - Gaylord Perry (Cle)        NL - Steve Carlton (Phi)
1973 - AL - Jim Palmer (Bal)           NL - Tom Seaver (NY)
1974 - AL - Catfish Hunter (Oak)       NL - Mike Marshall (LA)
1975 - AL - Jim Palmer (Bal)           NL - Tom Seaver (NY)
1976 - AL - Jim Palmer (Bal)           NL - Randy Jones (SD)
1977 - AL - Sparky Lyle (NY)           NL - Steve Carlton (Phi)
1978 - AL - Ron Guidry (NY)            NL - Gaylord Perry (SD)
1979 - AL - Mike Flanagan (Bal)        NL - Bruce Sutter (Chi)
1980 - AL - Steve Stone (Bal)          NL - Steve Carlton (Phi)
1981 - AL - Rollie Fingers (Mil)       NL - Fernando Valenzuela (LA)
1982 - AL - Pete Vukovich (Mil)        NL - Steve Carlton (Phi)
1983 - AL - LaMarr Hoyt (Chi)          NL - John Denny (Phi)
1984 - AL - Willie Hernandez (Det)     NL - Rick Sutcliffe (Chi)
1985 - AL - Bret Saberhagen (KC)       NL - Dwight Gooden (NY)
1986 - AL - Roger Clemens (Bos)        NL - Mike Scott (Hou)
1987 - AL - Roger Clemens (Bos)        NL - Steve Bedrosian (Phi)
1988 - AL - Frank Viola (Min)          NL - Orel Hershiser (LA)
1989 - AL - Bred Saberhagen (KC)       NL - Mark Davis (SD)
1990 - AL - Bob Welch (Oak)            NL - Doug Drabek (Pit)
1991 - AL - Roger Clemens (Bos)        NL - Tom Glavine (Atl)
1992 - AL - Dennis Eckersley (Oak)     NL - Greg Maddux (Chi)
1993 - AL - Jack McDowell (Chi)        NL - Greg Maddux (Atl)
1994 - AL - David Cone (KC)            NL - Greg Maddux (Atl)
1995 - AL - Randy Johnson (Sea)        NL - Greg Maddux (Atl)
1996 - AL - Pat Hentgen (Tor)          NL - John Smoltz (Atl)
1997 - AL - Roger Clemens (Tor)        NL - Pedro Martinez (Mon)
1998 - AL - Roger Clemens (Tor)        NL - Tom Glavine (Atl)
1999 - AL - Pedro Martinez (Bos)       NL - Randy Johnson (Ari)
2000 - AL - Pedro Martinez (Bos)       NL - Randy Johnson (Ari)
2001 - AL - Roger Clemens (NY)         NL - Randy Johnson (Ari)
2002 - AL - Barry Zito (Oak)           NL - Randy Johnson (Ari)
2003 - AL - Roy Halladay (Tor)         NL - Eric Gagne (LA)
2004 - AL - Johan Santana (Min)        NL - Roger Clemens (Hou)
2005 - AL - Bartolo Colon (LA)         NL - Chris Carpenter (StL)

Multiple winners:

7 - Roger Clemens
5 - Warren Spahn, Randy Johnson
4 - Bob Feller, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux
3 - Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Bucky Walters, Hal Newhouser, Bob Lemon, Whitey Ford, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Pedro Martinez
2 - Dizzy Dean, Lefty Gomez, Mort Cooper, Robin Roberts, Jim Perry, Bob Gibson, Gaylord Perry, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Glavine
1.5 - Denny McLain

If it were the “Best Starting Pitcher Award”, Palmer moves to the 4 list, Roberts to 3, Sutcliffe, Scott and McDowell join the 2 list. Messersmith, J. Niekro, Blyleven, McCatty and Schmidt would join the list of winners with 1.

*Explanations

1932 AL
Lefty Gomez beat Grove for MVP, 27-8, but Grove was 25-10, 2.84, 292 IP, Gomez was 24-7, 4.21, 265 IP - see 1997 NL for a similar situation.

1936 AL
Vern Kennedy, Chi beat Bridges 27-25 for MVP, but had a 4.63 ERA, Bridges had a 3.60 ERA and won 23 games to Kennedy’s 21.

1937 AL
Ruffing beat Gomez, 18-14, but Gomez had an ERA .65 lower and was 21-11 vs. 20-7 for the same team.

1943 NL
Cooper beat Rip Sewell, Pit, 130-127, Cooper deservered barely, but a real Cy Young vote could have gone either way.

1944 AL
Newhouser edged teammate Dizzy Trout 236-232. Trout deserved the award.

1944 NL
Walters tied with Bill Voiselle, NY, 107-107 but was clearly the better pitcher, also had 3 1st place MVP votes to Voiselle’s 0.

1947 AL
Joe Page, NY outpointed Feller 167-58, a breakthrough for relievers. I’m very confident Feller at 20-11, 2.68 ERA, 299 IP would have won a Cy YOung vote. Page would have finished 3rd, behind Phil Marchildon, Phi as well.

1949 AL
Page outpointed Parnell 166-151 with Ellis Kinder 3rd at 122 - Parnell threw 295 innings to Page’s 135. Ellis Kinder won the TSN Award, but he clearly wasn’t even the best pitcher on the Red Sox, Parnell was and Cy Young voters have always gotten the ranking of teammates correct at least.

1950 NL
No reliever that has won the MVP has ever lost the Cy Young Award - Konstanty beat teammate Robin Roberts 286-68 in the MVP vote and had 18 first place MVP votes. He would have won the Cy Young Award too.

1951 AL
This one would have been very close in the AL. The MVP vote was 157-125-118, Garver, Allie Reynolds, Feller. Reynolds had the best ERA, but threw 25-30 fewer innings than the other two, and was only 17-8, compared to 20-12 for Garver and 22-8 for Feller. Garver and Reynolds had 6 1st place MVP votes each, compared to 0 for Feller. I think Garver would have beat Reynolds due to his 20 wins for a team that lost 102 games.

1951 NL
Also would have been very close - Maglie beat Preacher Roe 153-138 in the MVP vote. I think it would have held up Maglie was 23-6 2.93, vs. Roe’s 22-3, 3.04, and Maglie’s team came back and won the pennant. Maglie also threw 40 more innings.

1952 NL
Roberts finished 2nd in the MVP, edging Joe Black, Bro 211-208, Wilhelm was 3rd with 133 - impressive for 2 relievers, but Roberts would have won the Cy Young vote handily.

1953 AL
Trucks beat Bob Porterfield, in the MVP 81-64. Trucks was 20-10, 2.93, 264 IP, vs. 22-10, 3.35, 255 IP.

1955 AL
MVP voter fascination w/relief pitchers continues, Ray Narleski, Cle tops AL MVP vote among pitchers, 90-24-21. Whtey Ford or Billy Pierce would have won AL. Ford threw 48 more innings, was 18-7, 2.63 vs. 15-10, and would have won despite Pierce’s 1.97 ERA. See Smoltz/Brown 1996.

1960 AL
Chuck Estrada, Bal, beat Perry in the MVP vote, 28-6, but Perry threw 52 more innings, same ERA, basically the same record, 18-10 vs. 18-11, tied for the league lead in wins.

1960 NL
Lindy McDaniel was 5th in the MVP vote with 95 points. Law had 80 and would have easily beat the reliever in the Cy Young voting, especially considering the Pirate pennant.

1961 NL
Joey Jay, Cin, outpointed Spahn 74-31 in the MVP vote, but Spahn beat Jay 6-0 in Cy Young voting and had an ERA 1/2 run lower.

1962 AL
Dick Donovan outpointed Terry 64-19, and neither got a Cy Young vote. Terry was 23-12, 3.19 in 299 IP for the pennant winner. Donovan was 20-10, 3.59 ERA in the 251 IP, Terry would have won.

1964 NL
Jackson would have squeaked past Juan Marichial. In the MVP vote it was 26-14, and Jackson had 2 Cy Young votes, to none for Marichial. Jackson was 24-11, 3.14, 298 IP, Marichial was 21-8, 2.48 ERA in 269 IP. I think the 24 wins would have been enough to throw Jackson over the top.

1965 AL
Eddie Fisher, Chi outpointed Grant 122-74, but Grant was a starter on the pennant winner and Fisher was a reliever, it would not have been close. Mel Stottlemyre would have finished 2nd.

Starters who would have won if relievers ineligible

1950 NL
Robin Roberts, Phi

1974 NL
Andy Messersmith, LA

1977 AL
Jim Palmer, Bal

1979 NL
Joe Niekro, Hou

1981 AL
Steve McCatty, Oak

1984 AL
Bert Blyleven, Cle

1987 NL
Rick Sutcliffe, Chi

1989 NL
Mike Scott, Hou

1992 AL
Jack McDowell, Chi

2003 NL
Jason Schmidt, SF

************************

Here’s a recap of all of the situations where the MVP and Cy Young balloting are out of sync, in case anyone wants to mine the data.

AL 1967 - good example of the relievers do better in the MVP than Cy Young vote thing. Joe Horlen beat Jim Lonborg, 91-82 in the MVP vote, but Longborg won the Cy Young vote 18-2.

AL 1972 - Sparky Lyle finished 3rd in the MVP vote, beating Gaylord Perry 158-88. Lyle got 3 points in the Cy Young vote, Perry won with 64.

NL 1973 - Mike Marshall finished 5th in the MVP, beating Seaver 93-57. Seaver won the Cy Young 71-54.

AL 1974 - First example of a starter that finished ahead of another in the MVP not beating him for the Cy Young. Jenkins beat Hunter 118-107 in the MVP, Hunter won the Cy Young 90-75.

NL 1974 - Marshall wins the Cy Young, he was 3rd in the MVP with 146 points, Andy Messersmith and Jack Billingham had 4 points. Marshall only beat them 96-66-8 in the Cy Young vote. Marshall threw 200+ innings out of the pen that year, and still barely won the Cy Young.

AL 1975 - Rollie Fingers beats Palmer 129-82 in MVP vote. Palmer edges Hunter for the Cy Young, Fingers distant 3rd, 98-74-25.

NL 1975 - Al Hrabosky edges Seaver and Randy Jones, 66-65-54 in MVP vote. Cy Young goes Seaver 98, Jones 80, Hrabosky 33.

AL 1976 - Bill Campbell beats Palmer 56-47 in MVP, finishes 7th in Cy Young with 7 points.

AL 1977 - Lyle and Campbell finish ahead of Guidry and Palmer 79-65-11-9 in MVP vote. Lyle wins the Cy Young, 56-48 over Palmer. Campbell was 5th with 25 points.

NL 1979 - Tables turn. Joe Niekro outpoints Sutter and Tekulve 75-69-64 in the MVP vote. However, in the Cy Young vote Sutter wins 72-66 (Tekulve had 14 points). This is the first time anything like this has remotely happened. Sutter broke the saves record that year.

AL 1980 - Back to normal. Gossage finishes 3rd in the MVP vote, beating Steve Stone and Mike Norris 218-70-10. He also finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote, behind Stone and Norris, 100-91-37.

AL 1981 - Goofy short season, Fingers wins the MVP, and beats Steve McCatty 319-22 (15 1st place votes). In the Cy Young vote he gets 22 1st place votes to McCatty’s 6.

AL 1982 - Dan Quisenberry beats Pete Vukovich 39-11 in MVP vote. Vukovich win the Cy Young, Quis is 3rd.

NL 1982 - Sutter and Greg Minton beat Carlton in the MVP vote 134-44-41, Carlton gets 20 of 24 1st place votes for the Cy Young Award, Sutter ties for 3rd, Minton 6th.

AL 1983 - Quisenberry, on a team 20 games out of first beats LaMarr Hoyt, who won 24 games for the division champ, 107-24 in the MVP vote. Hoyt edges him 116-81 in the Cy Young vote.

AL 1983 - Al Holland beats teammate John Denny 42-24 in the MVP vote, Denny gets 20 of 24 1st place votes for the Cy Young Award, Holland is 6th.

NL 1984 - Willie Hernandez romps to the MVP, Quisenberry is 3rd. The top starter is Dave Steib. The score is 306-235-4. Hernandez beats Quis 16-5 in first place votes. Cy Young, Willie only beats Quis 88-71, Blyleven gets 45 points and is 3rd. 1st place votes go 12-9-4.

AL 1985 - Donnie Moore beats Bret Saberhagen 96-45 in MVP vote. Saberhagen romps Cy Young (23 of 28 1st place votes), Moore is tied for 7th.

AL 1987 - Jeff Reardon and Tom Henke outpoint Roger Clemens in the MVP vote. Henke doesn’t get a vote on the Cy Young ballot, Clemens romps and Reardon is 8th.

NL 1987 - Not a good data point. Steve Bedrosian only pitcher to get a vote in the MVP, gets 6 points. He edges Sutcliffe and Reuschel for the Cy Young 57-55-54.

AL 1988 - Dennis Eckersley beats Frank Viola, 156-39 in MVP vote. Viola beats him 27-1 in the Cy Young voting.

AL 1989 - Eck beats Saberhagen 116-82 in MVP. Sabes gets 27 of 28 Cy Young 1st place votes.

NL 1989 - Mark Davis beats Mike Scott 76-6 in MVP vote. He wins the Cy Young too, with 19 first place votes to 4 for Scott (107-65 in points).

AL 1990 - Only the second example I’ve found of a starter beating another starter in the MVP but losing to him in the Cy Young. Clemens and Dave Stewart beat Bob Welch 212-56-54. Welch gets 15 of 28 1st place votes in the Cy Young balloting wins 107-77-43 over the others. Bobby Thigpen had 170 points in the MVP vote, 20 in the Cy Young balloting. Eck had 112 MVP points, 2 in the Cy Young voting. 27 wins is the explanation here.

NL 1991 - Lee Smith beats Tom Glavine 89-16 in the MVP vote. Glavine wins the Cy Young 19-4 (110-60 in points) over Smith.

AL 1992 - Eck wins the MVP with 306 points (15 firsts), Jack Morris top starter with 18 points, Clemens 16, McDowell 5. Cy Young, Eck gets 19 first place votes, McDowell and Clemens runners up.

NL 1992 - Another case of a close but low MVP vote getting the Cy Young wrong. Glavine beats Greg Maddux 18-14 in MVP, Maddux beats him for Cy Young 20-4.

NL 1993 - Rod Beck edges Maddux, 23-17 in MVP. Maddux gets 22 of 28 Cy Young 1sts, Beck doesn’t get a vote.

AL 1994 - MVP wrong on AL Cy Young vote. Key beats Cone 102-40. Cone edges Key for Cy Young 108-96 (15-10). Only one that doesn’t have a logical explanation.

AL 1995 - Jose Mesa gets a 1st place MVP vote and edges Randy Johnson 130-111 in the MVP voting. Johnson beats him 26-2 for the Cy Young.

AL 1996 - Mariano Rivera beats Andy Pettitte 27-11 in MVP, Pat Hentgen doesn’t get a vote. Cy Young Hentgen edges Pettitte 110-104. Rivera 3rd with 18 points. Editorial comment: Rivera actually deserved the Cy Young, pretty amazing for a setup man. 1 voter gave him a 1st place vote.

AL 1997 - Randy Myers 4th in MVP vote, beats out Clemens and Johnson, 128-56-42. Clemens gets 25 1st place votes for the Cy Young, Myers is 4th with 14 points.

NL 1997 - Another case of a starter being behind in the MVP vote but winning. Again, small totals. Maddux, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez 16-9-6 in MVP. Pedro gets 25 1st place votes in the Cy Young.

NL 1998 - Trevor Hoffman beats Glavine 117-2 in the MVP vote (Kevin Brown had 8 points). Glavine, despite having fewer 1st place votes (11-13-8) edges Hoffman and Brown, 99-88-76 to win the Cy Young.

NL 2000 - MVP ballot wrong on starters again, with low totals. Maddux 12, Glavine 8, Johnson 5. Cy Young, Johnson in a walk with 22 first place votes.

NL 2001 - Again NL, again small totals. Schilling 24, Johnson 23 MVP. Cy Young, Johnson 30 first place votes, Schilling 2.

AL 2003 - Keith Foulke leads MVP vote among pitchers, with 20 points. Pedro gets 7 points, Loaiza 4. Roy Halladay romps to Cy Young with 26 first place votes.

NL 2003 - Eric Gagne beats Mark Prior and Jason Schmidt, 143-44-7 in the MVP vote. Gagne romps to the Cy Young 28-2-2.

AL 2005 - Mariano Rivera 59 points in MVP, Bartolo Colon, 3. Colon wins the Cy Young 17-8, 118-68.

Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 01:37 PM | 74 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 02:51 PM (#1735321)
The most virtual MVCys anybody wins '31-'46 is 3. Feller, Hubbell and Newhouser are HoMers. Gomez and Walters are not.

Gomez 189-102, .649, 3.34 (125 ERA+/191-74-49-35-28-27-22-6-5-(97)
Walters 198-160, .553, 3.30 (115/168-53-45*-40*-27-23-7-(94)-(91)-(89)

Walters 3100 IP Gomez 2500, and Walters has two additional years <154 IP but >150 at 131 and 109. But Walters' 145 and 140 are in 1944 and 1945. Is Walters really a better pitcher?

WS

Gomez #67/185/31-29-20/106
Walters #69/258/38-32-32/132

OK this seems really odd to me. 20% more IP at 10 points poorer ERA+ = 40 percent more WS? Granted Walters threw an extra 80 IP in their respective 3 best seasons and at 168-53-27 and consecutively BTW. Gomez' 3 best are scattered over a 6 year period, but hey, at 194-76-63 (and there's still a 58 in there while Walters' next best are those tainted 145-40s in 1944-1945). I think this is a case where those Yankee teams were so good that there are diminishing returns--no matter how good you are you can only win so many games and there are too many good players to pass those WS around to. Usually we think of players on lousy teams getting shorted by WS; here I think is the opposite. And besides that, Walters pitched in front of an all-time great defense, did he not (though perhaps not great run support, while Gomez may have had both)?

So I'm not sayin' Gomez in a walk. But Walters 11 ballots 25th place, Gomez 1 ballot 71st. Is this all about hitting? And if so, are we rating them on their skills rather than their value? Are we forgetting about Walters' WWII years? He really only had 3 big years other than '44-'45. I don't see him as Dizzy Dean by any means.

I'm sure somebody can 'splain that one to me.
   2. Archie Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:07 PM (#1735328)
I think seeing a breakdown of Gomez's career record in Yankee Stadium along side of his road numbers might shed some light on this. Not that I have them, but I do believe that the first B. James Historical Abstract mentioned that his career ERA was a full run higher on the road than at home. So obviously someone has gone to the trouble of breaking down Gomez.
   3. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:53 PM (#1735367)
You mean like there should be an *?
   4. Archie Posted: November 17, 2005 at 03:56 PM (#1735372)
No, I'm just saying that the James's comment about a HOF pitcher having a career ERA of a full run higher on the road than at home makes me curious.
   5. Daryn Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:00 PM (#1735377)
And why is Gomez so far behind Bob Lemon? --- another good comp in my opinion.
   6. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:26 PM (#1735429)
Ugh, this thread was supposed to be saved, not opened, I wasn't finished yet!

Note to self, can't save a potential thread and go back to work on it later.

I'm heading off to sleep now, will finish it later on, sorry guys.

And the typo is supposed to be for '66, the last year Cy Youngs weren't an ML thing, just kind of worked out that I got off work when I was done with 1946 . . .
   7. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:34 PM (#1735440)
Isn't an average pitcher .25 higher on the road? Yankee Stadium was a pitcher's park too. ERA+ does account for this . . .

Gomez didn't pitch tons of innings for his era, maybe because the Yankees were deep - but that's one knock, 2491 translated IP is low.

IIRC his RSI showed him as getting fantastic Run Support also, which bumped his record some.

He had a couple of huge years, 1934 and 1937 (in 1932 Lefty Grove was the best pitcher in the AL, by a longshot, but somehow Gomez outpointed him 27-8 in the MVP balloting).

IMO Gomez is very similar to, but a hair behind Ron Guidry if you want a modern comp (I realize we don't care about that here, but it's a perfect match, Guidry is within 40 translated IP career-wise, meaning they had identical career lengths when adjusting for era).

Lemon is a good comparison, but Lemon had 2 more years, which is about 20% more value considering their career length.
   8. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1735443)
While I'm sleeping, does anyone want to take a look at the MVP ballots since 1967 and see how often the Cy Young Award winner gets the most points? That would give me a good idea for how much tweaking needs to be done here.

I know Bill Deane (I think) did this in Total Baseball, but I want to take a separate crack at it without looking and see how close I get, and where we differ.
   9. Daryn Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:40 PM (#1735446)
I'll take care of AL 2005:

Colon beats Rivera in Cy.
MVP votes: Rivera 69, Colon 3.
   10. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:40 PM (#1735447)
BTW, the MVP ballots are readily available at baseball-refernce.com:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_1954.shtml, as an example.
   11. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:41 PM (#1735451)
Yeah, relievers are different though Daryn.

I've heard some voters actually say they'll vote for a reliever for MVP before Cy Young, because they play almost everyday. I know it's crazy, but it's true.

So maybe make a separate note if you (or whoever) check them out if a reliever outpoints a starter.
   12. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:43 PM (#1735453)
>Gomez didn't pitch tons of innings for his era, maybe because the Yankees were deep - but that's one knock, 2491 translated IP is low.

And Walters was a real workhorse, right? That's what I hear.

Top 3 years, Walters threw 80 more innings. 80. 3 years.
   13. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1735461)
As to the MVP based on 2005 not only are pitchers ineligible but defenders (SS, C, 2B) as well, or at least defensive value. Of course ARod won because Ortiz doesn't play defense but you could have picked ARod as the more valuable player just on offense, though the writers obviously wouldn't agree. But where the heck are any other players who played an important defensive role.

The MVP has become the Silver Slugger +.

Somebody suggested there needs to be a Reliever of the Year award since relievers aren't eligible for the Cy.

I suggested an MVP2 for somebody who doesn't play 1B, LF or RF or hit like one.
   14. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1735464)
Career translated IP for Bucky Walters 3065. Gomez, 2491. That's 574 tIP, where 275 is considered 3rd in the league.

So that's 23% more career for Walters, which is a lot.

Walters could hit a little too.

WARP1, Walters 87.2, Gomez 60.8
WARP3, Walters 87.3, Gomez 59.5

So Walters has 47% more WARP3 and 43% more WARP1.

It's not just a Win Shares thing.
   15. Archie Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:50 PM (#1735466)
I'm thinking (but not sure) that I read in James's book on managers that Gomez also pitched a higher percentage of his innings in the Stadium than on the road. I imagine retrosheet would at least give his starts at home vs. road. I also think I read somewhere that his 1934 season was about 2/3 decisions and innings in New York and 1/3 on road. Can this, if true, be attributed to McCarthy's genius? I mean, afterall, Gomez's 1934 ERA+ is one of the few real outlier for the era, isn't it?
   16. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:51 PM (#1735467)
Who was the MVP candidate at a defensive position in the AL that were overlooked this year Marc, Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada?

The 5 best players in the AL, by far this year were Rodriguez, Manny, Sheffield, Texiera and Ortiz. It just so happened that none of them played a middle infield position.

In the NL, Jeff Kent had a heckuva year, but I still couldn't get him any higher than 5th or 6th on my MVP ballot (and I didn't have Andruw Jones in the top 10). It's just one of those cycles that's down right now.
   17. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 04:53 PM (#1735473)
Archie - He was a lefty, so it would make sense for them to try to get him more starts in the Bronx.

One other thing that I remember in the RSI data, Walters very touch competition, I think his opponents were around .520 on average, which is what got him a bump in my rankings (though he still hasn't made my top 15). Not sure where Gomez was in that category.
   18. DavidFoss Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:07 PM (#1735496)
I'm thinking (but not sure) that I read in James's book on managers that Gomez also pitched a higher percentage of his innings in the Stadium than on the road. I imagine retrosheet would at least give his starts at home vs. road. I also think I read somewhere that his 1934 season was about 2/3 decisions and innings in New York and 1/3 on road. Can this, if true, be attributed to McCarthy's genius? I mean, afterall, Gomez's 1934 ERA+ is one of the few real outlier for the era, isn't it?

How is 1934 that much of an outlier when you also have 1937 which is even better?

Its well known that lefties (both hitters and pitchers) love Yankee stadium and have always had an advantage there. Bill Dickey gets a bit of a double bonus in this regard as in addition to havin the short porch in right field to aim for, lefty catchers can time their days off to be against LHP's.

We've noted this but being the right guy for the right park is also part of a players value. Yes, we park-adjust but if you are helped or hurt by your park more than a standard park factor would suggest than so be it. It can work both ways as witness by Cool Papa Bells abyssmal MLE's from his St Louis days.
   19. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:13 PM (#1735506)
Just to separate the hitting and pitching WS for Gomez and Walters:

Pitching, Walters, 234.4, Gomez 186.4
Batting/Fielding, Walters, 23.9, Gomez 0.0

In pitching WS, Walters beats him by 26%, which is just a smidge over their IP difference.

That's right, Gomez was such a bad hitter, that he never, not once produced offense at even 1/2 the league average. His career high OPS+ was 15. That was in 1937 when he created 5 runs using 89 outs.

It was the only time he was ever in double-digits. His OPS+ was negative all but 3 years of his career. He created 29 runs using 845 outs in his career.

Walters created 195 runs using 1588 outs. He basically was Larry Bowa at the plate, with more power and a lower OBP. Bowa was a marginally better hitter. Bowa created 3.31 R/27, Walters, 3.32, but Walters played in a marginally better hitters era (.745 OPS+ vs. .728).
   20. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:20 PM (#1735514)
Another way to put the hitting difference in perspective, the marginal offense Walters provided, was two full seasons (743 outs worth) of offense at 6.03 R/G. That's in addition to the two more seasons he pitched.

The only reason Walters 'only' has 23.9 more B/F WS than Gomez is because the system won't let Lefty's offense go negative. I think that's why the difference in WARP is even greater than WS, but both systems basically agree on them as players.
   21. DavidFoss Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:20 PM (#1735515)
And why is Gomez so far behind Bob Lemon? --- another good comp in my opinion.

Yeah, I'm a bit cautious on Lemon and initially placed him off ballot in the high teens.

There's a line between the Coveleski/Vance/Ferrell guys and the Gomez/Walters/Dean/Grimes guys and I'm not sure I've read enough to see that Lemon lies on the 'in' side of that line.

Could be an era dependence? That his career IP is more impressive because pitchers after the war didn't rack up as many innings?
   22. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 05:48 PM (#1735544)
Joe, just rating the hitters I have Michael Young and Miggie Tejada in the top 10--no defense. Young was 3rd in the league in times on base and 12th in extra base hits. Miggie was 3rd in XBH. These are guys who hit better than Konerko and play SS. Roberts wasn't bad either, though the voters only remember the second half. He was 10th in XBH and 12th in times on base. How about Johnny Peralta, or however the hell you spell it?

Put it another way. I don't think Hafner or Texeira were their team MVPs. The only reason Vlad was the Angels' MVP is that everybody else sucked. Konerko might be the White Sox' MVP but they really did it with pitching, in fact I'll say it--Buehrle was their MVP.

Obviously the writers gave more votes to NL IFers...but Jimmy Rollins? Geez. And yes, Jeff Kent, though obviously his team stunk and I suppose a few people felt they hadda take sides in Kent vs. Bradley. How about David Wright (not a middle IF but a defender)? Felipe Lopez got on base as many times as Scott Burrell and Morgan Ensberg. Not saying the four-bagger isn't valuable but...

I just don't think they're valuing the big boppers very well when Travis Hafner comes in 3rd and Scott Burrell 5th.
   23. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 07:58 PM (#1735798)
AL 2005 Best-Season Ballot (WARP1)

1 - Alex Rodriguez (10.2)
2 - Mark Teixeira (9.3)
3 - Jhonny Peralta (9.2)
4 - Johan Santana (9.1)
5 - Mariano Rivera (8.9)
6 - Brian Roberts (8.9)
7 - Derek Jeter (8.8)
8 - David Ortiz (8.0)
9 - Kenny Rogers (7.9)
10 - Vladimir Guerrero (7.8)

NL 2005 Best-Season Ballot (WARP1)

1 - Derrek Lee (12.3)
2 - Dontrelle Willis (11.2)
3 - Albert Pujols (10.7)
4 - Roger Clemens (10.2)
5 - Jason Bay (10.0)
6 - Todd Helton (9.6)
7t - Andy Pettitte (9.2)
7t - Roy Oswalt (9.2)
9 - Jim Edmonds (8.9)
10 - Miguel Cabrera (8.7)
   24. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:25 PM (#1735841)
NL Gold Gloves (WARP1)

RF 105 Jeromy Burnitz
CF 115 Jim Edmonds
LF 110 Cliff Floyd
SS 114 Rafael Furcal
TB 109 Mike Lowell
SB 109 Craig Counsell
FB 114 Todd Helton
CA 117 Yadier Molina
PP 120 Tom Glavine

AL Gold Gloves (WARP1)

RF 110 Jacque Jones
CF 106 Vernon Wells
LF 108 Scott Podsednik
SS 113 Jhonny Peralta
TB 107 Brandon Inge
SB 114 Orlando Hudson
FB 114 Travis Lee
CA 116 Jose Molina
PP 123 Chan Ho Park
   25. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:26 PM (#1735843)
Those were for 2005, natch.
   26. sunnyday2 Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:26 PM (#1735846)
Well, NL IF don't do well do they?

I am not generally a big fan of WARP just because who can revise their spreadsheets every two weeks? But I certainly prefer the AL WARP list to the MVP voting by like a light year at WARP speed. ('Course with a discount for bad behavior, can I get Kenny Rogers out of the top 10? Never liked his singin' much either.)

And now I know how to spell Jhonny. Is he that good? And Roberts comes out ahead of Miggie? Oh wait a minute. These numbers suck, where is Michael Young? ;-) But I will add, Jeter is overrated by the general public and underappreciated around these here parts.

Finally, WARP gets two silver stars for Derrek Lee (OK, now I know how to spell Derrek).
   27. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:39 PM (#1735872)
AL 2005 Best Pitcher Ballot (WARP1)
1 Johan Santana (9.1)
2 Mariano Rivera (8.9) (Best Reliever)
3 Kenny Rogers (7.9)

Rest of top 6
4 Jon Garland (7.5)
5 Mark Buehrle (7.3)
6 Bartolo Colon (7.2)

NL 2005 Best Pitcher Ballot (WARP1)
1 Dontrelle Willis (11.2)
2 Roger Clemens (10.2)
3t Andy Pettitte (9.2)
3t Roy Oswalt (9.2)

Rest of top 6
5t Pedro Martinez (7.7)
5t Carlos Zambrano (7.7)
5t Brandon Webb (7.7)
...
10t Billy Wagner (7.3) (Best Reliever)
10t Derrick Turnbow (7.3) (Best Reliever)
   28. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:53 PM (#1735904)
Oh wait a minute. These numbers suck, where is Michael Young? ;-)

WARP says that his D sucks (-20 FRAA). Soriano (-24 FRAA) is also close to replacement with the glove. Texas will probably have to give up one to make the IF less porous (don't think that flyball pitchers are a plus at Arlington).
   29. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 08:56 PM (#1735909)
And Roberts comes out ahead of Miggie?

Tejada was 11th.
   30. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1735923)
If you toss the starters from the Best-Season ballots, you add Tejada and Konerko to the AL, and Morgan Ensberg, Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, and Rafael Furcal to the NL list.
   31. jimd Posted: November 17, 2005 at 09:02 PM (#1735926)
Scratch that with Luis Gonzalez (my program added the two together). Replace with Andruw Jones instead.
   32. Cblau Posted: November 18, 2005 at 03:32 AM (#1736561)
Lefty Grove's ERA difference Home-Road= 0.99
Bob Feller= 0.87
   33. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:28 AM (#1736592)
How about Gomez? Do you have his split?
   34. Greasy Neale Heaton (Dan Lee) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:34 AM (#1736597)
And now I know how to spell Jhonny. Is he that good?

No, but he's pretty decent. Decent-to-pretty good range, but an erratic arm at times.

I'd have a really tough time making any kind of case for him as the best defensive shortstop in the AL.
   35. Greasy Neale Heaton (Dan Lee) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:35 AM (#1736598)
I mean defensively, of course. He's very good offensively.
   36. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 05:37 AM (#1736665)
Using the MVP vote to see who would have won the Cy Young Award.

Does this really make sense? The MVP award isn't the Best Player Award, but the Cy Young is supposed to be the award for the best pitcher.
   37. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 06:02 AM (#1736688)
With all due respect, the MVP award _is_ the best player award. What else could it mean? I mean all this stuff about "to his team"? If somebody else is "better" then they are more valuable "to their team." A win is a win is a win.
   38. Gary A Posted: November 18, 2005 at 06:37 AM (#1736747)
It's funny--you constantly run across people on the internet lecturing on how the Cy Young isn't for the most valuable pitcher, it's for the best pitcher (as if there's a difference--I'm with sunnyday on this). Ford Frick instituted the Cy Young because he thought pitchers were getting short shrift in the MVP vote--there wasn't any sense that they were to be different kinds of awards. Check out what the actual trophy says.
   39. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 07:13 AM (#1736777)
With all due respect, the MVP award _is_ the best player award. What else could it mean? I mean all this stuff about "to his team"? If somebody else is "better" then they are more valuable "to their team." A win is a win is a win.

Yes, I agree. But that's not how the voters have necessarily voted. You can't just assume that the pitcher who showed up highest in the MVP balloting was the one who voters thought was the best pitcher in the league.
   40. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 08:29 AM (#1736815)
Okay, I finally finished. Sorry, but the formatted text is going to make this a tough typing page. I'd just suggest typing comments in a text file, then copying and pasting in to the box . . . Hopefully this helps us some with organizing some of these pitchers. My takes . . .

Anyone with 4 is inner circle, IMO.

Bucky Walters and maybe Bob Lemon are the only pitchers with 3 Cy Youngs that aren't locks for election. Walters' 3rd is questionable due to the war, but I think it's fair to say he was the best pitcher in the NL from the late 30s through the war, unless you think Spahn would have been challenging him in 1944.

The guys with 2 go in easily if they have career value too (Gibson, Perry, Glavine), and if they don't, they don't (Gomez, Dean) - Saberhagen may be on the eventual fence. Mort Cooper and Jim Perry just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

The one timers are by and large non contenders. In rare cases, they either give you a chance to say, 'hey this guy had some peak (Ruffing, Kaat, etc.),' but are career value guys if they are getting in. Or they are peak guys like Ferrell, Drysdale or Guidry who were great for a brief time, very good for a reasonable amount of time but had relatively short careers for non-huge peak guys.
   41. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:26 PM (#1736867)
I did a study some time ago about who "the best player(s)" were throughout history. In this case "the best player(s)" and pitchers were defined as those with the highest peak and career value at the end of each season, so they are not seasonal awards. It's like somebody saying that Roger Clemens is "the best pitcher" in baseball today based on accumulated career value. Anyway, it was meant to counter the seasonal "awards" which represent small samples and have other issues. Also I think when people use the terminology "best player" they often have something more like this in mind anyway.

I have not been able to locate all my data but here is a taste. What I found was the early years 1878-1919. The player must have been active in the final year of the period in question (there are a few instances where a player still leads in accumulated peak despite not playing in the 3rd or 5th year of the period, but they are ineligible).

Three Year Peak as of the end of:

1878-80 Tommy Bond
1881 John Ward
1882 Jim McCormick
1883 Jim Whitney
1884-86 Hoss Radbourne
1887 John Clarkson
1888 Bob Caruthers
1889 Clarkson
1890 Silver King
1891 Clarkson
1892 Bill Hutchison
1893 Kid Nichols
1894-95 Amos Rusie
1896-97 Cy Young
1898-1900 Nichols
1901-04 Young
1905 Christy Mathewson
1906 Jack Chesbro
1907 Matty
1908 Mordecai Brown
1909-10 Ed Walsh
1911 Matty
1912 Walsh
1913-16 Walter Johnson
1917 Pete Alexander
1918 Johnson
1919 Alex

5 Year Peak as of the end of:

1882-83 John Ward
1884 Jim McCormick
1885-87 Hoss Radbourne
1888 Tim Keefe and Radbourne
1889-92 John Clarkson
1893 Bill Hutchison
1894-95 Amos Rusie
1896 Cy Young
1897-1901 Kid Nichols
1902-06 Young
1907-09 Christy Mathewson
1910-12 Ed Walsh
1913-18 Walter Johnson
1919 Pete Alexander

I will also list pitchers who were within 10 WS of either leader at any time in their careers but never lead on the assumption that they are within a margin of error. They are:

Dave Foutz, Joe McGinnity, Vic Willis, and that's it.

I also could not locate my total career data....but leading the MLs or even just the AL or NL in WS over a 3 or 5 year period makes for a pretty rarified group. The only pitchers on either of these lists whom we have not elected are:

Pre-1893
Bond
McCormick
Whitney
King
Hutchison
(Foutz)

20th Century
Chesbro
(Willis)

In short I would guess that 90% of the pitchers who made this list after 1920 are very strong HoM contenders. Lemme see if I can find the rest of the info. (And I have info for position players as well.)
   42. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:49 PM (#1736876)
I've heard some voters actually say they'll vote for a reliever for MVP before Cy Young, because they play almost everyday. I know it's crazy, but it's true.

And it's not true either, the almost every day part I mean. What's almost every day? Certainly more than the 71 games MVP candidate Mariano Rivera pitched in. No reliever has ever pitched almost every day, at least by my definition which would be 120-130 games. Not even Mike Marshall.

Sure, they're available every day, but then so is Jose Macias.

I think the voting is a big ego trip for the writers, where they get to put their spin on definitions and eligibility. This is my definition of valuable. Sort of like umpires and their strike zone.

MVP is best player. Tiebreakers may include clutch performance and contribution to a championship team, but the player performance should be the dominant factor. Cy Young is best pitcher. There should be little divergence between a pitcher's performance in the MVP and the CY, like there was this year.

But then again, I don't care that much. It's hard to get worked up about it at my age. Maybe 20 years ago I cared more.
   43. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 18, 2005 at 01:53 PM (#1736877)
There should be little divergence between a pitcher's performance in the MVP and the CY, like there was this year.

I meant to add that a pitcher's fielding and hitting, if it is significant either way, are factors which can and should be considered for MVP, and thus in rare cases can legitimately cause a significant divergence.
   44. Daryn Posted: November 18, 2005 at 02:50 PM (#1736904)
What happened to Lefty Gomez' third virtual Cy?
   45. Daryn Posted: November 18, 2005 at 03:01 PM (#1736912)
JOe's history above is fascinating. It seems that the MVP is often used to give consolation votes to pitchers who didn't make the Cy Young ballot or didn't place first on the Cy Young ballot.

NL 1992 - Another case of a close but low MVP vote getting the Cy Young wrong. Glavine beats Greg Maddux 18-14 in MVP, Maddux beats him for Cy Young 20-4.

This is such a weird one. It seems like the 4 Glavine voters must have all put him on the MVP ballot while most of the 20 Maddux voters left Maddux off the MVP ballot. Crazier still, Doug Jones and John Wetteland finish 3rd and 4th among pitchers in the MVP voting, but got no votes in the Cy.

I think what all this shows is that, unfortunately for Joe's study, the MVP voting is not a good barometer for the Cy voting.
   46. Dizzypaco Posted: November 18, 2005 at 03:04 PM (#1736915)
1992 is pretty easy to explain. The Braves won and the Cubs didn't. Voters take into account team performance when considering MVP, but not Cy Young.
   47. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1737042)
1992 is pretty easy to explain. The Braves won and the Cubs didn't. Voters take into account team performance when considering MVP, but not Cy Young.

Bingo.
   48. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:47 PM (#1737044)
Well, I think they consider the team in the Cys as well--I give you Cris Carpenter.
   49. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 04:48 PM (#1737047)
What this also is is a good barometer of what a mess the sportswriters have made of the simple concept of who the best player is. They seem to think that they have to "add value" to the process by interpreting what these various awards are "really" about. I'd settle for the very simple and straightforward value of honor deserving players.
   50. Michael Bass Posted: November 18, 2005 at 05:52 PM (#1737170)
I think Carpenter is more a case of a different award phenomenon...

In some cases, writers decide someone has won an award at the beginning of September, and more or less phase out the rest of the season. This is especially true in the case of someone like Carpenter, whose team was playing for nothing in September.

I really think a lot of writers had him written down that early, and his bad last month was simply written off or outright ignored.
   51. Cblau Posted: November 18, 2005 at 06:01 PM (#1737195)
####, sorry, Sunnyday2. Post 32 is supposed to read Gomez, not Grove. Grove's ERA was .02 higher at home.
   52. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 07:15 PM (#1737341)
IOW it's a bit unfair to penalize Gomez too much as his split is in Feller-range, plus as has been said, it's a bad thing that a guy excels at home?
   53. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 18, 2005 at 09:37 PM (#1737598)
Daryn, Gomez's 1932 Award disappeared after I reinterpreted the voting. Remember, what was up there yesterday was a draft that wasn't meant for public consumption yet :-)

I think later tonight, I'll add Bill Deane's Awards for pre-1931.
   54. BDC Posted: November 18, 2005 at 09:46 PM (#1737622)
Well, Carpenter did have that .808 winning percentage, which is of course due to the team behind in to some extent, but tends to impress the voters regardless.
   55. sunnyday2 Posted: November 18, 2005 at 11:22 PM (#1737768)
And he led the league in QS. This of course begs the question of whether 27 3-run starts is better than 18 at 1 and 2....
   56. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 19, 2005 at 12:54 AM (#1737959)
How about the AL run from 1979-83 - best starter:

1979 Mike Flanagan
1980 Steve Stone
1981 Steve McCatty
1982 Pete Vukovich
1983 LaMarr Hoyt

Ick.

If they'd given it to the right guy?

I'dve gone

1979 Tommy John
1980 Mike Norris
1981 Steve McCatty
1982 Dave Stieb
1983 Dave Stieb (Quisenberry for Cy Young, Stieb was the best starter)

It wasn't a great era for AL starting pitching, but the voters were pretty awful. That second list of names would have been much less noticable . . .
   57. OCF Posted: November 19, 2005 at 09:53 PM (#1738771)
One thing that makes the 1990 Cy Young vote for Bob Welch as laughable as it was: The A's got into the playoff, and had the luxury of arranging their starters any way they wanted to. They chose to put Dave Stewart, not Welch, in the prime spot. And that wasn't controversial, at all. I'll swear I saw writers saying essentially, "Of course they'd do that - Stewart is a better pitcher than Welch." So the very writers who voted Welch the Cy Young knew that Stewart was better.
   58. Paul Wendt Posted: November 20, 2005 at 04:54 AM (#1739080)
I think people commonly mean best outcomes, nothing more fundamental. Thus statistical sampling is not an issue, even where a player's baseball season does comprise a sample of games, innings, PAs, etc, that is small for some statistical purpose.

--
People who say one of the annual awards "is for" or "means" best pitcher or best player always mean best during that year's season. In other contexts, I agree with Marc sunnyday (below) that people don't generally mean best during this season. Exceptionally, some people do mean that, even that an all-star vote cast on Memorial Day should go to the best during these two months.

It's like somebody saying that Roger Clemens is "the best pitcher" in baseball today based on accumulated career value. Anyway, it was meant to counter the seasonal "awards" which represent small samples and have other issues. Also I think when people use the terminology "best player" they often have something more like this in mind anyway.

Not accumulated career value or best career but, yes, some reflection of a period longer than a season, whose length is between about two and ten years for most people, usually with greater weight on more recent seasons. I think.

--
Cy Young Award Hypothetical Winners 1900-1919 (with link to 1876-1900)

Note Bill Deane's standpoint in identifying hypothetical award winners for Total Baseball (1st ed., 1989, lightly revised thereafter). Who would have won an election akin to the modern award election? Not who would I retrospectively vote for? That is an unusual standpoint.

--
Joe, you probably know (if not, follow the link) that I am a fan of markup such as bold face and asterisk. The explanations would be easier to read given some feature highlighted. Eg, bold your selected starting pitcher bold, underline the actual MVP (who appears infrequently). I don't know any of the technical issues for revising the header, or what you want this to be, but you are talking about doing pre-1930.
   59. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 20, 2005 at 01:25 PM (#1739381)
Thanks for the tips Paul. I can rename the header pretty easily, so that won't be an issue. I'll also mark some things up a little better when I revise it. Thanks!
   60. yest Posted: November 20, 2005 at 04:34 PM (#1739449)
there is a difference between the best player and the most valuble player lets say the best player plays on a historicly great team and the next best player whose only slighty worse plays on a historicly bad team the worse player would bring more wins to his team due to the fact that that the better players team would probly win those games with out him.

with that said the MVP should go to the best player
   61. They paved Misirlou, put up a parking lot Posted: November 20, 2005 at 04:45 PM (#1739455)
there is a difference between the best player and the most valuble player lets say the best player plays on a historicly great team and the next best player whose only slighty worse plays on a historicly bad team the worse player would bring more wins to his team due to the fact that that the better players team would probly win those games with out him.

with that said the MVP should go to the best player


I have no problem with using team performance as a tiebreaker, and thus this year feel that Pujols over Lee is an OK choice. But it's kind of curious that a player can win both the silver slugger and the gold glove and still lose the MVP to another player at his position. Has that ever happened before?
   62. TomH Posted: November 21, 2005 at 02:48 PM (#1740421)
a small nit on the diff between Cy and MVP votes: yes, MVP voting takes MORE into account the team finish, but Cy Young voters have at times also based their ballots on team performance. The difference is, while some voters give a bonus to guys on division winners, there is also a tendency to reward pitchers who had great W-L records with poor teams (a notional Wins Above Team concept). So if you have three pitchers with identical stats, the guy on the winner will finish ahead, folowed by the man on the cellar dweller, but the poor fella who pitched for a 84-win team will be lowest.

This all comes from a voter modeling study I did back in 1989 or so.
   63. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:06 PM (#1740531)
This all comes from a voter modeling study I did back in 1989 or so.

Can that be accessed somewhere, Tom? I think many of us would be interested in that study.
   64. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: November 21, 2005 at 04:21 PM (#1740553)
Hey Tom, since you've studied it, what do you think of these? Any I should change? I'm most on the fence with 1947. Page was significantly ahead of Feller and the Yankees won.
   65. TomH Posted: November 21, 2005 at 09:01 PM (#1741047)
Let me see if I can go find it. It was published in something called the Baseball Analyst, a photocopied/stapled small potatoes production that Bill James and a few others edited in the late 1980s. But I won't get to it until at next week at the earliest!
   66. KJOK Posted: November 21, 2005 at 09:22 PM (#1741087)
To Paul's point, I would rather see "WARP CY YOUNGS" or even "WIN SHARES CY YOUNGS" as opposed to actual Cy Youngs or hypothetical vote Cy Youngs...
   67. Paul Wendt Posted: November 22, 2005 at 06:51 AM (#1741999)
#65
Rob Wood may have a copy.

#66
JoeD has the actual Cy Young election, if available;
if not, then the actual MVP election interpreted as including a Cy Young election, if available;
if not, the Bill Deane seems to be the next best thing (if he wants to type out three more decades;
then Thorn & Holway, what else?, for 1876-1900.
   68. Kelly in SD Posted: November 22, 2005 at 08:36 AM (#1742088)
Win Shares leaders during history.

On the Pitcher Thread, posts 241 to 252, I posted the win shares leaders in each league from 1876 to 2001. Also, as pitching staffs expanded, I expanded the number of pitchers I listed for each year. The placement was based on total win shares, not just pitching win shares.

Here are the league leaders:
Pre-AL

<u>National League</u>
1876 Spalding 57
1877 Devlin 60
1878 Bond 60
1879 Galvin 61
1880 McCormick 54
1881 Whitney 42
1882 Radbourn 50
1883 Radbourn 60
1884 Radbourn 89
1885 Clarkson 62
1886 L Baldwin 53
1887 Clarkson 51
1888 Buffington 44
1889 Clarkson 60
1890 Hutchison 54
1891 Hutchison 49
1892 Stivetts 49
1893 Killen 42
1894 Rusie 56
1895 Hawley 44
1896 Young 43
1897 Nichols 41
1898 Nichols 44
1899 Willis 39
1900 McGinnity 30

<u>American Association</u>
1882 White 54
1883 Keefe 70
1884 Hecker 74
1885 E Morris 56
1886 Foutz 62
1887 E Smith 54
1888 King 71
1889 Caruthers 46
1890 Stratton 51
1891 Stivetts 46

<u>Players' League</u>
1890 King 44

1901 to 1910 for some reason, I did this decade this way and the rest of the decades by league.
1901 AL Young 41
1901 NL Willis 33
1902 AL Young 38
1902 NL Taylor 32
1903 AL Young 38
1903 NL McGinnity 40
1904 AL Chesbro 53
1904 NL McGinnity 42
1905 AL Waddell 35
1905 NL Mathewson 39
1906 AL Orth 36
1906 NL Brown 35
1907 AL Walsh 37
1907 NL Overall 32
1908 AL Walsh 47
1908 NL Mathewson 39
1909 AL F Smith 31
1909 NL Brown 36
1910 AL Coombs 37
1910 NL Mathewson 30

1911-1920
<u>American League</u>
1911 Johnson 31 Walsh 31 (Walsh has more pitching win shares.)
1912 Johnson 47
1913 Johnson 54
1914 Johnson 38
1915 Johnson 42
1916 Ruth 37
1917 Ruth 36
1918 Johnson 38
(Ruth 40 but only pitched 166 innings)
1919 Cicotte 32
1920 Bagby 34

<u>National League</u>
1911 Alexander 34
1912 Mathewson 31
1913 Mathewson 30
1914 James 36
1915 Alexander 43
1916 Alexander 44
1917 Alexander 40
1918 Vaughn 28
1919 Vaughn 30
1920 Alexander 36

1921-1930
<u>American League </u>
1921 Faber 37
1922 Faber 31
1923 Uhle 29
1924 Johnson 29
1925 Johnson 26
1926 Uhle 32
1927 Lyons 30
1928 Grove 27
1929 Grove 28
1930 Grove 37

<u>National League</u>
1921 Grimes 29
1922 Cooper 27
1923 Luque 39
1924 Vance 36
1925 Donahue 28
1926 Kremer 25
1927 Alexander 28 Haines 28 (Haines leads in pitching win shares per win shares book.)
1928 Vance 32
1929 Lucas 26
1930 Vance 26

1931-1940
<u>American League</u>
1931 Grove 42
1932 Grove 33
1933 Harder 24
1934 Gomez 31
1935 Ferrell 35
1936 Grove 29
1937 Gomez 29
1938 Ruffing 25
1939 Feller 32
1940 Feller 34

<u>National League</u>
1931 Brandt 27
1932 Warneke 31
1933 Hubbell 33
1934 D Dean 37
1935 D Dean 31
1936 Hubbell 37
1937 J Turner 27
1938 B Lee 28
1939 Walters 38
1940 Walters 32

1941-1950
<u>American League</u>
1941 T Lee 32
1942 Hughson 28
1943 Chandler 29
1944 Trout 42
1945 Newhouser 38
1946 Newhouser 33
1947 Newhouser 24
1948 Newhouser 27
1949 Lemon 31 Parnell 31 (Parnell leads in pitching win shares per Win Shares book.)
1950 Garver 25 Houtteman 25 Lemon 25 (Houtteman leads per book.)

National League
1941 Wyatt 28
1942 M Cooper 29
1943 Cooper 28
1944 Walters 32
1945 Wyse 24
1946 Pollet 27
1947 Spahn 32
1948 Sain 28
1949 Pollet 24 Spahn 24 (Spahn leads per book.)
1950 Blackwell 26 Roberts 26 (Roberts leads per book.)

1951-1960
<u>American League</u>
1951 Wynn 24
1952 Shantz 33
1953 Trucks 25
1954 Garcia 24 Lemon 24 Wynn 24 (Wynn leads per book.)
1955 Pierce 23
1956 Wynn 28
1957 Bunning 26
1958 Harshman 22 Pierce 22 (Pierce leads per book.)
1959 Pascual 24
1960 Bunning 20

<u>National League</u>
1951 Roberts 28 Maglie 28 (Maglie leads per book.)
1952 Roberts 32
1953 Roberts 35
1954 Roberts 31
1955 Roberts 27
1956 Newcombe 27
1957 Spahn 22
1958 Spahn 28
1959 V Law 24
1960 Drysdale 25 McDaniel 25 (McDaniel leads per book.) First reliever to have the most pitching win shares in a season?

1961-1970
<u>American League </u>
1961 Arroyo 23
1962 Pascual 23
1963 Peters 25
1964 Chance 32
1965 McDowell 25
1966 Kaat 26
1967 Horlen 23
1968 McLain 33
1969 McLain 29
1970 McDowell 30

<u>National League</u>
1961 Spahn 25
1962 Purkey 26
1963 Koufax 32 Ellsworth 32 (Ellsworth leads per book.)
1964 Drysdale 26
1965 Koufax 33
1966 Koufax 35
1967 Bunning 25
1968 Gibson 36
1969 Gibson 33
1970 Gibson 28

1971-1980
<u>American League</u>
1971 Wood 33
1972 G Perry 39
1973 Hiller 31 (reliever)
1974 G Perry 30
1975 Palmer 31
1976 Palmer 27 Fidrych 27 Tanana 27 (Palmer leads per book.)
1977 Palmer 29
1978 Guidry 31
1979 Kern 25 (reliever)
1980 Norris 25

<u>National League</u>
1971 Jenkins 37
1972 Carlton 40
1973 Seaver 29
1974 Niekro 28
1975 R Jones 28 Messersmith 28 (Jones leads per book.)
1976 Niekro 21 Jones 21 Rau 21 Montefusco 21 (Niekro leads per book.)
1977 Sutter 27
1978 Niekro 30
1979 Niekro 24
1980 Carlton 29

1981-1990
<u>American League</u>
1981 McCatty 18
1982 Stieb 25
1983 Quisenberry 28 (reliever)
1984 Stieb 25
1985 Saberhagen 24 Stieb 24 (Exact tie.)
1986 Clemens 29
1987 Clemens 28
1988 Viola 25
1989 Saberhagen 28
1990 Clemens 28

<u>National League</u>
1981 Seaver 17 Valenzuela 17 (Seaver leads per book.)
1982 Carlton 25 Niekro 25 (Carlton leads per book.)
1983 Soto 25
1984 Sutter 23
1985 Gooden 33
1986 Scott 27
1987 Hershiser 21
1988 Hershiser 25
1989 Hershiser 21
1990 Drabek 20 Viola 20 (Drabek leads per book.)

1991-2001
<u>American League</u>
1991 Clemens 26
1992 Clemens 26
1993 Appier 27
1994 Cone 20
1995 Johnson 22
1996 Hentgen 24
1997 Clemens 32
1998 Clemens 25
1999 P Martinez 27
2000 P Martinez 29
2001 Mays 22

<u>National League</u>
1991 Glavine 23
1992 Maddux 27
1993 Rijo 26
1994 Maddux 26
1995 Maddux 30
1996 Smoltz 27
1997 P Martinez 26 Maddux 26 (Pedro leads per book.)
1998 Brown 26
1999 Johnson 26 Hampton 26 (Johnson leads per book.)
2000 Johnson 26
2001 Johnson 26
   69. Kelly in SD Posted: November 22, 2005 at 08:43 AM (#1742091)
I noticed something that I thought people might find interesting. There were a few years where the pitcher with the most total win shares did not have the most pitching win shares. Here are all the instances. In all cases, the pitcher with fewer pitching win shares hit considerably better than the other.

1889 AA: Silver King leads in pitching win shares with 42.37. Bob Caruthers leads in total win shares 46 to 44. King hits 43 for 189 and an OPS+ of 65. Caruthers hits 43 for 172 and an OPS+ of 121. Caruthers walks 44 times to King's 20.

1891 AA: Sadie McMahon leads in pitching win shares with 39.47. Jack Stivetts leads in total win shares 46 to 39. McMahon hits 43 for 210 and an OPS+ of 42. Stivetts hits 92 for 302 and an OPS+ of 102.

1892 NL: Kid Nichols leads in pitching win shares with 46.99. Jack Stivetts leads in total win shares with 49 to 48. Nichols hits 39 for 197 and an OPS+ of 57. Stivetts hits 71 for 240 and an OPS+ of 126.

1893 NL: Amos Rusie leads in pitching win shares with 39.95. Frank Killen leads in total win shares with 42 to Rusie's 41. Rusie hits 57 for 212 and an OPS+ of 71. Killen hits 47 for 171 and an OPS+ of 116.

1910 NL: Three Finger Brown leads in pitching win shares with 29.34. Mathewson leads in total win shares with 30. Brown hits 18 for 103 and an OPS+ of 30. Mathewson hits 25 for 107 and an OPS+ of 88.

1916 AL: Walter Johnson leads in pitching win shares with 34.49. Babe Ruth leads in total win shares 37 to 36. Johnson hits 32 for 145 and an OPS+ of 82. Ruth hits 37 for 136 and an OPS+ of 122.

1917 AL: Eddie Cicotte leads in pitching win shares with 35.15. Babe Ruth leads in total win shares 36 to 35. Cicotte hits 20 for 112 and an OPS+ of 39. Ruth hits 40 for 123 and an OPS+ of 162.

1923 AL: Urban Shocker leads in pitching win shares with 24.77. Uhle leads in total win shares 29 to 25. Shocker hits 16 for 80 with an OPS+ of 42, while Uhle hits 52 for 144 with 10 doubles, 3 triples, and an OPS+ of 126.

1925 AL: Herb Pennock leads in pitching win shares with 23.31. Johnson leads in total win shares 26 to 23. Pennock hits 20 for 99 and an OPS+ of 15. Johnson hits 42 for 97 and an OPS+ of 163.

1959 AL: Hoyt Wilhelm leads in pitching win shares with 23.23. Pascual leads in total win shares with 24 to Wilhelm's 23. Wilhelm hits 4 for 76 for an OPS+ of (neg 53) while Pascual hits 26 for 86 and an OPS+ of 85.

1961 AL: Whitey Ford leads Luis Arroyo 22.36 to 22.27 in pitching win shares, but must have had some hitting credit as he ended up with 23 listed win shares and Ford only 22. This is the strangest one. Arroyo was the reliever who hit better than the starter. Ford hits 17 for 96 and an OPS+ of 27. Arroyo hits 7 for 25 with an OPS+ of 74.

1962 AL: Hank Aguirre leads with 22.29 pitching win shares, but Camilo Pascual is listed with 23 total win shares to Aguirre's 22. This makes sense as Aguirre hits 2 for 75 during the year and Pascual hits .268 and an OPS+ of 80.

1963 AL: Dick Radatz has the most pitching win shares with 23.82. Gary Peters has the most total win shares with 25. Radatz hits 2 for 29 and an OPS+ of (neg 43) and Peters hits 21 for 81 with an OPS+ of 104.

1996 NL: Kevin Brown leads Smoltz 25.86 to 25.70 in pitching win shares, but in total win shares, Smoltz has 27 to Brown's 26. Brown hits 9 for 75 and an OPS+ of (neg 12). Smoltz hits 17 for 78 and an OPS+ of 41.
   70. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: November 30, 2008 at 07:13 PM (#3017659)
AL 1967 - good example of the relievers do better in the MVP than Cy Young vote thing. Joe Horlen beat Jim Lonborg, 91-82 in the MVP vote, but Longborg won the Cy Young vote 18-2.


The 1967 Cy Young Award seems to be one of the bigger topics of discussion at the SABR chapter meetings in Rhode Island so I know more about that race than I ought to. Horlen was a starter like Longborg.
   71. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: December 01, 2008 at 08:49 AM (#3017831)
Yeah, no idea why I thought Horlen was a reliever . . . all the more strange as to why the MVP and Cy Young votes were so different.
   72. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: December 01, 2008 at 03:35 PM (#3017878)
Different voters, I imagine. I think you generally get different guys voting for the awards now and I think that it was the same case back then. We had a blind vote for the Cy Young in 67 on Saturday. Going by the infor we were given, I went with Longborg, due to his strikeouts. But I think Horlen had a better season, even though it appears that he received better defensive support.
   73. BDC Posted: December 01, 2008 at 04:45 PM (#3017927)
no idea why I thought Horlen was a reliever

Probably you were conflating him with Joe Hoerner. I have been making that mistake my whole life. What an oddly organized brain I must have :)
   74. Paul Wendt Posted: December 02, 2008 at 08:39 PM (#3019081)
Joe Horlen
They made him a relief pitcher after he went over the hill. Same year they made Wilbur Wood a starting pitcher. Wood pitched a lot, 42 starts and 2 reliefs. Tom Bradley (who?) finished with 39 starts, 6 reliefs. They didn't quite need four full-time starting pitchers and they didn't have them. Tommy John, 35 and 3. Joe Horlen, 18 and 16. Bart Johnson, 16 and 37. It is unusual to see a man with 16 starts and 178 innings marked 'CL' for closer!
1971 Chicago White Stockings

. . .
Terry Forster, Bart Johnson, and Rich Gossage started 12, 9, and 4 games in 1973, still under Chuck Tanner. Paul Richards took over as manager in 1976 and put both Forster and Gossage in the starting rotation (with Wilbur Wood now over the hill).

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
TedBerg
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.9080 seconds
49 querie(s) executed