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Hall of Merit
— A Look at Baseball's All-Time Best

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Vladimir Guerrero

Eligible in 2017

DL from MN Posted: December 22, 2015 at 11:38 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. DL from MN Posted: January 08, 2016 at 10:55 AM (#5129099)
crossposting

14. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 31, 2015 at 11:50 AM (#5123308)
In depth analysis forth coming, as I see strong support for Vlad and Posada, and while my gut as a fan would likely agree with this, the numbers urge us to take a closer look. I took a comparison of non-HOM guys eligible/ineligible that overlap a significant portion of career with Vlad/Posada. I will first post the 18 non catchers (Bobby Abreu, Albert Belle, Lance Berkman, Carlos Delgado, Jim Edmonds, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Giambi, Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Vladimir Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Kenny Lofton, Fred McGriff, John Olerud, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, Robin Ventura, Bernie Williams; then the 3 catchers (Jason Kendall, Javy Lopez, Jorge Posada).

Totals adjusted for strike (1.4* 1994, 1.1* 1995), best 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 13, career, career adjusted to RE24 offense, RAA (FG), RE24 (FG), Def, postseason WPA per seamheads, post season plays, PA

Fangraphs:
BA: 6.9-, 19.7, 31.0, 41.5, 52.3, 58.9, 59.7, 75.0, 418, 571, -143, 0.15, _85, 10081
AB: 7.9-, 22.4, 32.5, 39.0, 43.8, 43.9, 43.9, 39.4, 397, 352, -153, 0.37, _81, 6673
LB: 7.7-, 20.7, 32.9, 43.7, 51.9, 56.3, 56.5, 64.9, 478, 562, -109, 1.03, 229, 7814
CD: 7.4-, 18.4, 26.7, 33.6, 41.2, 45.1, 45.5, 49.5, 435, 475, -214, 0.31, _43, 8657
JE: 8.3-, 21.5, 34.0, 45.9, 58.9, 64.4, 65.6, 64.3, 364, 351, __76, 0.16, 274, 7980
NG: 7.6-, 21.3, 33.4, 40.2, 42.3, 42.6, 42.6, 43.7, 228, 239, __19, 0.16, 129, 6116
JG: 9.2-, 23.5, 33.7, 40.9, 47.6, 50.7, 51.4, 58.8, 481, 555, -224, 0.40, 177, 8908
BG: 6.9-, 19.9, 31.3, 40.9, 52.0, 56.5, 56.5, 65.4, 375, 464, _-81, -.15, _99, 7836
LG: 8.9-, 20.9, 30.8, 38.0, 45.9, 52.6, 56.8, 64.5, 305, 382, _-14, -.02, 103, 10531
VG: 7.1-, 20.0, 31.2, 40.5, 50.2, 54.6, 55.1, 54.1, 465, 442, -115, 0.07, 193, 9059
JK: 7.4-, 19.0, 27.4, 35.3, 45.8, 53.4, 57.4, 63.1, 295, 352, ___4, -.21, 196, 9537
KL: 9.2-, 22.0, 32.8, 42.2, 54.2, 62.9, 65.7, 70.0, 177, 220, _146, 0.33, 479, 9234
FM: 6.7-, 19.7, 30.7, 38.8, 49.1, 56.7, 59.9, 67.7, 470, 548, -188, 0.31, 221, 10174
JO: 8.1-, 22.0, 31.1, 39.8, 49.1, 56.2, 58.7, 65.0, 370, 433, _-44, 0.32, 283, 9063
MR: 7.5-, 19.2, 29.9, 39.9, 52.3, 61.4, 68.3, 65.1, 727, 695, -277, 0.61, 506, 9774
SS: 9.9-, 22.8, 34.0, 44.6, 57.1, 62.7, 63.5, 67.3, 353, 391, __-2, 0.07, _74, 9896
RV: 7.3-, 19.2, 30.1, 40.4, 51.0, 56.4, 58.4, 65.8, 154, 228, _174, -.19, 162, 8271
BW: 7.0-, 17.0, 26.8, 36.5, 47.3, 49.7, 49.7, 44.4, 321, 268, -143, 0.05, 565, 9053

Baseball-Reference:
BA: 6.5-, 19.1, 31.0, 41.5, 52.0, 58.9, 60.9, 76.2, 418, 571, -117, 0.15, _85, 10081
AB: 9.4-, 24.4, 36.3, 43.6, 49.4, 49.4, 49.4, 44.9, 397, 352, -128, 0.37, _81, 6673
LB: 6.8-, 19.3, 30.6, 38.9, 47.8, 51.7, 51.9, 60.3, 478, 562, -118, 1.03, 229, 7814
CD: 7.3-, 18.6, 28.0, 34.5, 41.8, 45.5, 45.7, 49.7, 435, 475, -183, 0.31, _43, 8657
JE: 7.2-, 20.2, 32.4, 43.2, 55.9, 60.4, 61.5, 60.2, 364, 351, __62, 0.16, 274, 7980
NG: 7.4-, 21.3, 34.5, 43.1, 45.6, 46.0, 46.0, 47.1, 228, 239, __60, 0.16, 129, 6116
JG: 9.1-, 23.9, 34.6, 42.0, 48.3, 51.5, 52.4, 59.8, 481, 555, -205, 0.40, 177, 8908
BG: 6.6-, 18.3, 28.4, 37.1, 46.4, 51.2, 52.5, 61.4, 375, 464, _-97, -.15, _99, 7836
LG: 7.9-, 19.6, 27.4, 33.8, 41.5, 48.3, 52.8, 60.5, 305, 382, _-14, -.02, 103, 10531
VG: 7.4-, 20.3, 31.6, 41.1, 52.4, 58.4, 59.3, 57.0, 465, 442, -107, 0.07, 193, 9059
JK: 7.2-, 19.4, 27.9, 35.6, 46.3, 52.9, 56.3, 62.0, 295, 352, __-2, -.21, 196, 9537
KL: 10.1, 24.3, 35.8, 46.2, 57.9, 67.3, 71.4, 75.7, 177, 220, _154, 0.33, 479, 9234
FM: 6.6-, 19.1, 29.5, 37.6, 47.5, 52.8, 54.9, 62.7, 470, 548, -182, 0.31, 221, 10174
JO: 7.7-, 20.9, 31.2, 39.8, 49.4, 56.1, 59.5, 65.8, 370, 433, _-18, 0.32, 283, 9063
MR: 7.3-, 19.3, 29.9, 39.9, 53.4, 64.9, 71.2, 68.0, 727, 695, -228, 0.61, 506, 9774
SS: 10.3, 22.5, 33.9, 44.7, 56.2, 60.5, 61.7, 65.5, 353, 391, ___2, 0.07, _74, 9896
RV: 6.7-, 18.4, 29.0, 39.0, 49.4, 55.5, 57.6, 65.0, 154, 228, _173, -.19, 162, 8271
BW: 7.0-, 17.9, 28.3, 38.0, 48.9, 52.8, 53.1, 47.8, 321, 268, _-99, 0.05, 565, 9053

Baseball Prospectus:
BA: 7.3-, 19.6, 30.8, 41.1, 53.6, 61.2, 63.2, 78.5, 418, 571, __11, 0.15, _85, 10081
AB: 10.4, 27.4, 41.7, 47.3, 51.4, 51.4, 51.4, 46.9, 397, 352, ___5, 0.37, _81, 6673
LB: 7.8-, 22.8, 34.6, 44.3, 55.7, 59.6, 59.6, 68.0, 478, 562, ___5, 1.03, 229, 7814
CD: 7.0-, 16.7, 25.2, 32.8, 39.9, 42.6, 42.6, 46.6, 435, 475, _-52, 0.31, _43, 8657
JE: 9.7-, 23.4, 36.5, 48.9, 64.9, 71.6, 76.2, 74.9, 364, 351, _152, 0.16, 274, 7980
NG: 8.5-, 23.6, 37.0, 44.7, 47.4, 47.8, 47.8, 48.9, 228, 239, __16, 0.16, 129, 6116
JG: 9.1-, 24.1, 33.0, 40.6, 48.2, 51.7, 53.0, 60.4, 481, 555, _-59, 0.40, 177, 8908
BG: 7.9-, 21.0, 32.5, 41.7, 51.0, 56.0, 56.3, 65.2, 375, 464, _-27, -.15, _99, 7836
LG: 8.5-, 19.4, 28.1, 35.0, 43.3, 48.8, 53.6, 61.3, 305, 382, __16, -.02, 103, 10531
VG: 7.4-, 21.6, 34.5, 45.2, 58.8, 64.3, 64.9, 62.6, 465, 442, __70, 0.07, 193, 9059
JK: 7.6-, 20.4, 30.4, 37.7, 47.8, 56.4, 61.3, 67.0, 295, 352, ___8, -.21, 196, 9537
KL: 8.7-, 21.7, 31.2, 39.5, 50.4, 59.0, 63.3, 67.6, 177, 220, __45, 0.33, 479, 9234
FM: 6.0-, 17.2, 25.8, 33.2, 41.1, 44.6, 45.4, 53.2, 470, 548, -125, 0.31, 221, 10174
JO: 7.7-, 20.9, 31.2, 39.8, 49.4, 56.1, 59.5, 65.8, 370, 433, __90, 0.32, 283, 9063
MR: 7.3-, 19.3, 29.9, 39.9, 53.4, 64.9, 71.2, 68.0, 727, 695, _-69, 0.61, 506, 9774
SS: 10.3, 22.5, 33.9, 44.7, 56.2, 60.5, 61.7, 65.5, 353, 391, _106, 0.07, _74, 9896
RV: 6.7-, 18.4, 29.0, 39.0, 49.4, 55.5, 57.6, 65.0, 154, 228, __86, -.19, 162, 8271
BW: 7.0-, 17.9, 28.3, 38.0, 48.9, 52.8, 53.1, 47.8, 321, 268, _-71, 0.05, 565, 9053

Baseball Gauge/Seamheads: Outfielders adjusted to include R-OF arm value, 1 WAR added for Green Monster:
BA: 5.8-, 16.6, 26.3, 34.8, 46.0, 54.9, 57.2, 72.5, 418, 571, _-48, 0.15, _85, 10081
AB: 9.1-, 23.7, 35.4, 42.3, 48.2, 48.2, 48.2, 43.7, 397, 352, ___2, 0.37, _81, 6673
LB: 7.2-, 18.6, 29.3, 38.4, 49.3, 54.3, 54.7, 63.1, 478, 562, __10, 1.03, 229, 7814
CD: 6.8-, 18.1, 27.2, 35.8, 45.0, 50.6, 51.3, 55.3, 435, 475, _-15, 0.31, _43, 8657
JE: 9.7-, 22.7, 35.3, 47.0, 62.2, 69.1, 72.8, 71.5, 364, 351, _108, 0.16, 274, 7980
NG: 6.5-, 19.2, 29.9, 36.4, 38.8, 39.4, 39.4, 40.5, 228, 239, _-32, 0.16, 129, 6116
JG: 8.4-, 22.0, 31.1, 37.8, 44.9, 48.4, 49.5, 56.9, 481, 555, _-71, 0.40, 177, 8908
BG: 7.6-, 18.8, 29.1, 35.8, 43.4, 47.4, 48.0, 56.9, 375, 464, __18, -.15, _99, 7836
LG: 7.5-, 18.8, 27.2, 34.4, 43.5, 49.7, 52.1, 59.8, 305, 382, __99, -.02, 103, 10531
VG: 6.6-, 18.5, 29.1, 38.3, 49.8, 56.1, 56.8, 54.5, 465, 442, ___3, 0.07, 193, 9059
JK: 7.1-, 19.0, 28.9, 37.2, 47.1, 54.5, 61.3, 67.0, 295, 352, __-1, -.21, 196, 9537
KL: 8.1-, 19.5, 28.9, 36.6, 47.3, 55.7, 59.5, 63.8, 177, 220, __27, 0.33, 479, 9234
FM: 6.6-, 18.4, 27.6, 34.9, 43.6, 48.8, 52.6, 60.4, 470, 548, _-59, 0.31, 221, 10174
JO: 8.0-, 19.8, 29.0, 37.0, 46.4, 52.2, 55.4, 61.7, 370, 433, __94, 0.32, 283, 9063
MR: 6.4-, 17.7, 28.5, 38.8, 53.6, 67.0, 75.7, 72.5, 727, 695, _-80, 0.61, 506, 9774
SS: 8.2-, 20.0, 29.8, 39.2, 49.9, 56.8, 58.5, 62.3, 353, 391, __72, 0.07, _74, 9896
RV: 5.8-, 16.2, 25.1, 32.9, 42.5, 47.7, 49.1, 56.5, 154, 228, __67, -.19, 162, 8271
BW: 5.7-, 15.2, 24.0, 32.2, 43.4, 48.3, 48.8, 43.5, 321, 268, _-41, 0.05, 565, 9053

In a future post, I will share rankings values for each guy on a 100, 95, 90, weighted scale.

Kiko, hopefully you can share a detailed look at your system to add to the discussion :)

Edit |Close
15. Bleed the Freak Posted: December 31, 2015 at 12:58 PM (#5123350)
Values for regular, RE24, and 50/50 split, ranked by 50/50 split:

Fangraphs:
BA: 4548/5714/5131 - Abreu
SS: 4931/5226/5079 - Sosa
KL: 4888/5207/5048 - Lofton
JE: 5023/4924/4973 - Edmonds
LB: 4475/5140/4807 - Berkman
BG: 4412/5106/4759 - Giles
FM: 4437/5015/4726 - McGriff
RV: 4431/4993/4712 - Ventura
MR: 4806/4581/4694 - Ramirez
JO: 4447/4925/4686 - Olerud
LG: 4247/4823/4535 - Gonzalez
JG: 4186/4788/4487 - Giambi
JK: 4187/4603/4395 - Kent
VG: 4310/4231/4270 - Guerrero
CD: 3599/3915/3757 - Delgado
NG: 3676/3770/3723 - Garciaparra
BW: 3915/3497/3706 - Williams
AB: 3741/3358/3550 - Belle

Baseball-Reference:
KL: 5292/5611/5452 - Lofton
BA: 4577/5727/5152 - Abreu
SS: 4823/5120/4971 - Sosa
MR: 4961/4738/4850 - Ramirez
JO: 4462/4935/4699 - Olerud
JE: 4725/4625/4675 - Edmonds
RV: 4332/4889/4610 - Ventura
JG: 4265/4867/4566 - Giambi
FM: 4170/4762/4466 - McGriff
VG: 4547/4370/4458 - Guerrero
LB: 4107/4772/4439 - Berkman
BG: 4041/4725/4383 - Giles
JK: 4153/4573/4363 - Kent
LG: 3894/4462/4178 - Gonzalez
AB: 4202/3819/4011 - Belle
NG: 3922/4015/3968 - Garciaparra
BW: 4130/3718/3924 - Williams
CD: 3648/3967/3807 - Delgado

Baseball Prospectus:
JE: 5621/5526/5573 - Edmonds
BA: 4709/5849/5279 - Abreu
MR: 5358/5140/5249 - Ramirez
SS: 5044/5339/5191 - Sosa
LB: 4723/5388/5055 - Berkman
VG: 4990/4813/4902 - Guerrero
KL: 4640/4955/4797 - Lofton
BG: 4424/5123/4774 - Giles
JK: 4450/4863/4656 - Kent
JG: 4248/4841/4544 - Giambi
JO: 4169/4659/4414 - Olerud
AB: 4455/4065/4260 - Belle
LG: 3963/4533/4248 - Gonzalez
NG: 4109/4203/4156 - Garciaparra
RV: 3834/4389/4112 - Ventura
BW: 4140/3725/3932 - Williams
FM: 3556/4167/3861 - McGriff
CD: 3410/3730/3570 - Delgado

Baseball Gauge:
JE: 5400/5304/5352 - Edmonds
MR: 5067/4853/4960 - Ramirez
BA: 4154/5265/4710 - Abreu
SS: 4424/4711/4567 - Sosa
LB: 4229/4878/4553 - Berkman
KL: 4349/4663/4506 - Lofton
JK: 4298/4715/4506 - Kent
JO: 4169/4643/4406 - Olerud
JG: 3965/4558/4261 - Giambi
VG: 4312/4137/4225 - Guerrero
LG: 3928/4508/4218 - Gonzalez
FM: 3918/4499/4209 - McGriff
BG: 3798/4502/4150 - Giles
CD: 3944/4252/4098 - Delgado
RV: 3714/4273/3993 - Ventura
AB: 4096/3713/3904 - Belle
BW: 3685/3285/3485 - Williams
NG: 3366/3460/3413 - Garciaparra

Also consider Giles being blocked by the Indians organization, that Delgado tore up the minors as well before getting a full-time gig, and the post-season value for each guy.

Baseball Prospectus is a supporter, but the other big 3 systems show Vlad as being short of the HOM.

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