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1. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: September 17, 2006 at 06:10 PM (#2179551)(crowd groans) :-)
Yes, you did.
I was wondering if someone was going to point that out while I was eating my lunch. :-)
In present company, a possible #1 ;-)
In his prime years, he comped very closely to Fred McGriff (he was pretty good).
He got older and no one could really compare to him. He was highly effective (career OPS+ 148) in 9686 PA's.
Below average glove and ink totals which were only "very good" keep him away from inner circle.
I'd eyeball him as a shade above Harmon Killebrew.
Mcgwire in a few years. I'll be voting for him. I don't think many others will.
However, I suspect that in terms of value patterns, McGriff and Killebrew fall into a pairing as do McCovey and McGwire. FM and HK both had long careers, didn't miss too much time, and put together a bunch of good seasons, few of which really stand out from one another (in fairness to HK, he had better seasons in general, though there's a little DH bias in the early and later portions of McGriff's career). Meanwhile McCovey and McGwire both seem to have had troubles with injuries and (relative) ineffectiveness during long portions of their careers. But they both have soaring peaks.
You might wonder about three other guys: Murray, Palmeiro, and Perez. I don't think Murray was as slow as these guys and his effective career seems a little bit longer. Palmeiro was more athletic than any of this group and probably a much better fielder than any. He also had speed during much of his career. Perez, however, confuses me a bit. He doesn't have the extended run of real peak/prime seasons, but his peak's a little nicer than McGriff's. Plus he was supposedly a decent third baseman (moved because they needed to put Rose somewhere not due to inability, though I'm not looking at any numbers to back that up). He's probably the bridge between McGriff and the other three, but I'm not quite sure.
Anyway, just noodling.
Perez moved back to 1b in 1972, after the Reds traded Lee May to Houston in the Joe Morgan deal. Denis Menke also came over from Houston, and when Perez went to first, Menke took over at third. Rose didn't move to third until part-way into the 1975 season, replacing John Vukovich, and opening up a spot for George Foster in left.
Perez was the Reds' regular third baseman from 1967 to 1971, with May at first all of those years except 1967, when Deron Johnson played first. In 1971, May played 143 games at first, and Perez 44; Perez played 148 games at third and Woody Woodward 63. This suggests to me that at times, Woodward was inserted for defensive purposes at third and Perez moved to first, with May being taken out of the game.
Perez came up as a first baseman (He played that position exclusively in the majors from 1964-66), before being moved to third.
Then the knees began to go, and only once more does he clear 500 PA in a season. I can't think of another player who looked as creaky as he did for so long, yet still dangerous - like a rattlesnake with its tail run over. Maybe you can get past him, but make a mistake and he'll bite - and bite hard.
Interesting prime/career combo - looking at full seasons, it's a prime argument, but with all those 300-495 PA seasons, he winds up with a career argument with almost 10,000 PA.
And guess what - he's by far the class of the bunch under either argument.
As a kid, I was in awe of that massive front shoulder as you watched him bat. It seemed like he'd hit a HR every time.....
And guess what - he's by far the class of the bunch under either argument.
He's easily #1 on my ballot in '86. No extensive analysis was needed.
Killebrew was a bit short for this group at 'only' 5'11". When Bill James first wrote about similarity scores, he wrote a bit about the Killebrew/McCovey pairing and how they showed up high on each others comp lists. He mentioned that these two didn't look at all like each other on the playing field. Similar results at the plate though. They both got their MVP's in the same year as well. (1969)
He's no Gregg Jeffries.... ; )
Possibly true, though not even one of Jeffries' patented tantrums will get him his own plaque in Cooperstown like Stretch. :-)
Willie McCovey: 52 games, 219 PA, 187 OPS+, and as mentioned above, unanimous Rookie of the Year.
Frank Thomas: 60 games, 240 PA, 177 OPS+. Did not draw a single vote for Rookie of the year
Part of the explanation: a greater fraction of Willie's value was in SLG, a greater fraction of Frank's value was in OBP, and OBP has always been less visible. But not a single vote??
Alex Cole over Thomas? Okay, Cole was in CF, but...
My offensive system ranks him 4th among (post-1890) first basemen so far - behind Gehrig, Foxx, and Mize, but that assumes substantial WWII credit for Mize. Without that correction, McCovey would be ahead of Mize. I have him ahead of Allen, Killebrew, and Greenberg.
McCovey's 1969 season is a great one. In my system, I've got its offensive value as 98 - very, very close to the 100 I have for Norm Cash's 1961. And the rest of Cash's career doesn't bear any resemblence to the rest of McCovey's career.
We do understand that the standards for first basemen seem to be getting stiffer. We've seen the career of Perez (What - he hasn't retired yet? Well, why hasn't he?) We've (probably?) seen the prime of Murray. And you've got your Garvey here and your Hernandez there, and lots of teams seem to have a Cecil Cooper or Alvin Davis or Glenn Davis. But McCovey still stands out as special.
He'll be #1 on my ballot, and it won't be close.
1. Gehrig 489
2. Murray 437
3. Foxx 435
4. McCovey 408--not bad
5. Might be Frank Thomas "The Big Hurt" at 382 as of yesterday, though I'm not fully up to date on where McGwire and Bagwell and Raffy ended up. Anson is at 381 and Killebrew 371.
Active Leaders
1. Thomas
2. Thome 305--just shy of Cepeda, Hernandez, Cash
3. Giambi 282--just ahead of Terry and Garvey
4. Delgado 266--ahead of Hodges, Mattingly, Bottomley; one shy of Greenberg
5. Helton 233--about even with Watson, Fournier, Adcock, Sievers and Hrbek
6. Pujols 215--already ahead of Kluszewski, one short of George Scott, exactly even with Lee May
7. Conine 188 = 2 more than Mo Vaughan and Andre Thornton
8. Berkman 181--between Driessen and Skowron
9. Snow 170 = Gus Suhr
10. D. Lee 156 = John Kruk
Great group. I mean, imagine Killebrew, Cepeda, Garvey, Hodges, Watson, Kluszewski, Mo Vaughan, Skowron, Suhr and Kruk all in the MLs at one time. That's basically what you've got. And as recently as last year you also had Jeff Bagwell (aka Johnny Mize) active as well.
He'll be an easy #1 on my 1986 ballot.
And yes, Le Samourai, it was that kind of season (although in my system Aaron had one almost as good.)
BTW, I don't want to get into a steroid conversation, I just wanted to comment that Giambi is closer than I thought.
Part of my point has been (see the Freehan thread for active catchers, the Brock thread for active LF, and the Sewell thread for active SS along with above), part of the point has been that there are a ton of apparent HoMers active today. More than we can elect. Meaning the standards are going nowhere but up, at least superficially.
Well, that depends on how many we schedule ourselves to elect. I'm not convinced that at 3 electees a year, with an occasional 4, we won't be able to keep up with the arrival of new meritorious players while occasionally dipping in to the backlog. According to the current schedule, by 2020 we will be alternating 3 and 4 electees per year, a 75% increase over the 2 per year to which we are currently accustomed.
It wouldn't be too difficult to build a projected list of new eligibles through 2015 (players retired after 2009) would it? A preview of the new eligibles for our first 8 real-time elections would give us some idea of whether standards are going to rise or not.
I've been watching him pretty closely, and I think he's very nearly cracked my top twenty 1Bs. His peak is legitimately huge, and it's in the DH league so maybe a bit watered down. With a good 2006, Thome is closing in on the top 20-25, with Delgado probably in the 30 range and Helton still well back.
That's not talking about Albert, who I think is pretty nearly ready to bank. Seriously, after this year, he could probably have one at-bat each of the next three-four yearse and still make it, the peak is THAT good.
It wouldn't be too difficult to build a projected list of new eligibles through 2015 (players retired after 2009) would it? A preview of the new eligibles for our first 8 real-time elections would give us some idea of whether standards are going to rise or not.
The HOF actually lists these guys out on its site as "future eligibles" or something like that.
Here's their list----
2007: Harold Baines, Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Gwynn, Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Mark McGwire, Paul O’Neill, Gregg Olson, Cal Ripken Jr., Bret Saberhagen, Jeff Shaw, Kevin Tapani, Devon White, Bobby Witt
2008: Shawon Dunston, Travis Fryman, David Justice, Mike Morgan, Tim Raines, Randy Velarde
2009: Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Matt Williams
2010: Andres Galarraga, Edgar Martinez, Robin Ventura
Depending on who makes a comeback and who doesn't....
2011: Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Jose Offerman, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Troy Percival, Benito Santiago, Sammy Sosa, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker
Bagwell's a NB and Sosa isn't quite NB status, but he's pretty well qualified. Then there's the Palmeiro question.... But bubbling beneath is Kevin Brown who was really fantastic, then a few guys who merit serious attention if they aren't ultimately going to be HOFs: Franco, Gonzalez, Olerud. And finally the curious case of Larry "Coors Field" Walker. That's a rough ballot. I suspect we'll see Bagwell and Sosa and that's it. Unless there's some serious roid evidence against Sosa by then, in which case it could be only Bagwell.
Is Bagwell a lock for the HOF? I hope he is, but I'm not so sure, Eric.
2007: Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Mark McGwire ( I think he gets in by 2010)
2008: Tim Raines ( should be a very interesting case- )
2009: Rickey Henderson
2010: Edgar Martinez (another interesting case if they let a pure DH in),
2011: Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa
Top seven seasons by OPS+ (500 PA)
WM-211-182-175-165-161-160-154HG-172-170-170-169-163-156-155
McCovey's 1968-70 peak really was a monster. When you adjust for Candlestick-late-sixties versus Tiger Stadium of the 30s, its better than anything that Greenberg did (especially the top two). It appears that McCovey has a small edge in peak here (Greenberg really holds his own in years 3-7).
After that, its a question of all the war credit for Greenberg versus all the partial seasons for McCovey. McCovey's 1959 (219PA), 1962(261PA), 1971(402PA), 1973(495PA) & 1974(442) seasons all top 150 OPS+ despite reaching 500 PA (just barely in a couple of cases). How to compare those is tough.
And after *that* McCovey has a bit of a career edge due to the remaining filler. McCovey's 1977 season matches up nicely with Greenberg's year in Pittsburgh. After that, I think its just Greenberg's rookie season versus a number of filler years for McCovey.
The war credit for Greenberg certainly makes the comparison tougher. Since he flew into the HOM with relatively little resistance, I don't think we stressed too much about exactly how much extra credit to give him. That does come into play when creating these types of all-time rankings though.
despite not reaching
I'm prone to these types of typos but I hate it when the word I forget to type is 'not'. :-)
To this long-time baseball fan I put Willie's 1969 season up there with Dick Allen's 1972 and Pedro Guerrero's 1985 as "forgotten" great seasons. Willie's season was the best. But each is largely forgotten to history. In today's climate the output just doesn't jump out at the reader.
But they were mighty fine seasons. I think James is pretty accurate when he stated that given health and today's ballparks Willie would go nuts with the bat.
I'm not sure you could really definitively say Greenberg's peak was higher. That looks about like a dead heat to me.
Plus Greenberg has the Duke Snider thing, 3rd best player at his position for most of his career.
Greenberg beats Mac on the rate catagories, OWP, OPS+, because Willie hung around until he was 42, if they both retired at 36 McCovey would be ahead.
It seems paper thin in difference if you are comfortable giving Greenberg fairly large amounts of War Credit.
I haven't worked up Guerrero yet - as good as he was in 1985, I doubt that that season will quite measure up against those others. In my context-modified RCAA system, I have Allen 1972 as a "90", McCovey 1969 as a "98" and Cash, 1961 as a "100" - but then Cash was in the weaker league. McCovey's 1968 and 1970 seasons, at 79 and 75, aren't exactly cheap, either. I have Greenberg's best three seasons as 77, 76, and 65 - so yes, McCovey has the bigger peak.
Well, I did write that Willie's season was clearly the best of the three.
Pedro's 1985 season will always stick with me. By chance I saw him play multiple times in person, and he was flat out amazing. Just crushed ball after ball. His June that year was a big story at the time. If I remember correctly he hit something like 15 homers that month. He was on TWIB highlights every weekend.
Not much with the glove but the guy could hit.......
jschmeagol Posted: May 29, 2005 at 12:51 PM (#1369795)
"For those giving war credit, I am giving hank Greenberg 124 WS for 1941-1945. This adds 12 WS to his 1945 total, and an average of 28 over the other four years. I am breaking those years down 31,29,27,25. This takes him from 267 to 391 career WS, and brings his peak and prime closer to Foxx and Gehrig."
Since Greenberg had gone 33, 34, 24, 31 and 31 in the years surrounding the war years, I think having four of his five war season in the 20's is probably a bit too low, but perhaps reasonable since there is a possibility of injury (as was discussed in the Greenberg thread).
Agreed, McCovey's 1968-1970 OPS+ outstrip Greenberg, but it's purely an offensive metric. In WS terms it's 34, 39, 33 or 106, while Greenberg's 1935, 1937-1938 are 34, 33, 34 or 101. Seems like a very small edge in peak, if peak is only the three top years, but Greenberg has three other seasons of 31 WS even without war credit while McCovey's next three best seasons are 34, 29, 25.
But I don't want to sound like an argumentative jerk, and I shouldn't draw any more attention away from what should be a focus on the great career of Willie McCovey, so I'm going to go back to lurking now. But, again, thank you for the insight and replies, and thanks to all of you contributing to this project. It is a very enjoyable series of threads to read and very educational as well!
Comparing to guys like Greenberg is actually one of the best ways to demonstrate how great McCovey was.
1969 was the year we got 4 new teams, so more dilutive than all the expansion years when we got 2. Also, it was the year the pitching mound was lowered, so presumably a hitting star like McCovey benefited from a lot of discombobulated terrified pitchers. I think that 211's a bit overstated therefore, and his in-season durability was pretty poor, making his overall career no more than middling in terms of PA.
I'd agree that it is quite close, and there are good reasons to favor Greenberg. The two are close enough, in fact, that who you rate higher depends on the metric you use. Win shares favors McCovey, I think, while WARP shows Greenberg as having many more great seasons than McCovey did. But then, WARP sees Greenberg's superior defense as being worth 20 wins over McCovey's for their careers, and I have a hard time accepting that conclusion. But Greenberg was surely the better defensive player, but McCovey played against better competition (even with expansion) because of integration. . . One can go back and forth.
1. Intentional walks - didn't Bonds break the IBB record held by Stretch? He was feared in late 60s and early 70s.
2. Grand Slams - his total of 18 is still tied for 4th all-time. He was deadly when you had nowhere to put him. Maybe not a Pat Tabler-like automatic with the bases juiced but still not shabby :)
Karl, an interesting question about the 1969 expansion. I initially thought it a moot point as compared to all other expansions because only two of the teams came into his league, but in rereading, I think there's some reason to wonder about it since the total talent pool was depeleted at once instead of incrementally over a couple seasons (a la 1961-1962). He posted OPS+s around 180 in the surrounding seasons, so the effect, could appear to be as much as 15%. I'm not sure that's a reasonable reading since he was obviously on peak in this time (in spite of generalized aging patterns).
This OPS+ peak is then fortifed by numerous surrounding full and near-full seasons in the 150-160 range. Dude could hit.
1. Correct.
Terrified pitchers was a phrase used earlier and completely accurate in nature. "Ball Four" specifically has a moment where Bouton and fellow pitchers are watching McCovey take batting practice making what Bouton describes as "small animal noises".
In then NL not so much. Jimmy Wynn. Rico Carty. Pete Rose. Cleon Jones. Maybe Lee May.
In the AL you had Killibrew, Reggie Jackson, Boog Powell, Rico Petrocelli, Frank Howard, Sal Bando and Mike Epstein.
Mike Epstein? 30 homers in 1969.
Assuming you were just talking about hitters of course.
Aaron had a fine year in 1969. But not his "greatest". Still one heckuva a season for an old feller.........
1961
Indeed it was. I remember.
Not much with the glove but the guy could hit.......
The man could hit.
I searched my computer and dredged up a note I wrote to some friends of mine that was a reaction to a Ross Newhan column in the L. A. Times in 2000 in which he picked an all-time "all Los Angeles" team. From his choices, his eligibles were Dodgers since the move west and Angels since the team began. I had some fun picking apart his column - but perhaps his most egregious omission was forgetting that Pedro Guerrero existed. Now, it is somewhat problematical what position to place Guerrero at. For the Dodgers he "fielded" some combination of third base and outfield.
My exercise was to pick up a team from the people Newhan left out and see if I could come up with a better team. For that, I called Guererro a first basemen, even though that's not actually where he played in LA.
1. First time I saw an intentional walk issued in person
2. First time I saw a 2nd deck HR in person (not many of those in old Busch)
3. First time I saw "the shift" employed in person
were all with McCovey at the plate.
Harvey, if you think Carty had a peak in 69 you are missing his big 70, which if not for 69 might be on the fluke-meter (he seemed to be one year ahead of his old teammate Joe Torre in peak). He might have had the weakest glove of any MLB from San Pedro de Macoris.
#18
As for impressive debuts, I did see one hyped youngster make his debut almost as well as Big Mac’s
and would be the following year’s AL ROY. Lined out to opposite field, walk, double in the gap, double in the other gap, pulled double down the line. In fact, I would have imagined this tall, slow LH hitter might have been a future Big Mac, though he was an OF. Another fan suggested he might become one of the all-time greats, but I was being cautious by suggesting he might be “only” as good as teammate Giambi. He did ok for a few years but was “only” worth Johnny Damon and Cory Lidle (plus minor leaguer Mark Ellis) in a trade...do you remember him without checking the boxscore?
#11
Without any real knowledge of his lack of speed, I remember cracking up with my brother pretending to be baseball announcers and saying something like:
"(high pitch)It's in the gap, Bonds scores, Fuentes crosses the plate, here comes Mays, here comes the throw, he scores! (slow and low pitch) Mc Covey ... rounding ... first..."
He didn't have a lot (353) of doubles for a 500 HR man from that era but he did have more than Killebrew.
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