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Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Yogi Berra

Eligible in 1969.

John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: January 18, 2006 at 08:44 PM | 110 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Spivey Posted: January 28, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#1841236)
Also, I thought great teams generally undershoot their pythag record, not overshoot it. That's what Neyer and Epstein say in the Dynasties book, right?

I'm quite sure this is wrong. I own that book, and I think they said the opposite. Also, I ran through most of the teams listed in the 'All time great teams' thread in the Yankees blog - generally speaking they all outperformed their pythag prett damn well. The reason, I think, is simply because you need to have a lot of breaks to be an alltime great team (based on win%).


The "over .500" group had an actual win% of .571, and a pythag of .566.

The "under .500" group had an actual win% of .426, and a pythag of .432.

I stand corrected....


Well I don't think you stand *that* corrected. Your point is there, it just generally doesn't make much of a difference (mainly, because most of the teams that are above .500 tend to be like .501-.540, so it's not really going to be that big of an issue). I think once you start to look at all-time great teams (.650+) or maybe just great teams (.610+, or thereabouts) you'll see a larger effect.
   102. sunnyday2 Posted: January 28, 2006 at 05:07 AM (#1841285)
I think the hypothesis is diminishing returns. I have no idea if it is a true hypothesis or not.
   103. Spivey Posted: January 28, 2006 at 06:12 AM (#1841321)
I thought the hypothesis was more on the lines of a regression thing than anything else. If a team wins 65% of their games over a somewhat short sampling (a season), chances are they're great, but likely not that great. I could be mistaken, I've been wrong before. Once.
   104. sunnyday2 Posted: January 28, 2006 at 06:38 AM (#1841331)
I think the hypothesis is diminishing returns. I have no idea if it is a true hypothesis or not.
   105. KJOK Posted: January 28, 2006 at 07:10 AM (#1841355)
I thought the hypothesis was more on the lines of a regression thing than anything else. If a team wins 65% of their games over a somewhat short sampling (a season), chances are they're great, but likely not that great. I could be mistaken, I've been wrong before. Once.

I believe your correct here. Any .650 team is more likely to be a .550 team that got .100 'lucky' than a .750 team that got .100 'unlucky, etc.

Well I don't think you stand *that* corrected. Your point is there, it just generally doesn't make much of a difference (mainly, because most of the teams that are above .500 tend to be like .501-.540, so it's not really going to be that big of an issue). I think once you start to look at all-time great teams (.650+) or maybe just great teams (.610+, or thereabouts) you'll see a larger effect.

Yes, I didn't really construct the correct test, and now I do realize that what I was remembering was that REALLY GOOD or GREAT teams generally outperform their pythagorian win%.
   106. Joey Numbaz (Scruff) Posted: January 28, 2006 at 11:14 AM (#1841445)
Crap, I think I reversed the thinking, based on the 1998 Yankees. I know they said they were the opposite, so I must have mixed it up. I did hedge by saying, "I thought," and "right?". Thanks for clarifying it.
   107. Howie Menckel Posted: January 30, 2006 at 04:14 AM (#1843229)
Just watched a one-hour interview with Michael Kay on the Yankees' YES Network tonight.

Some highlights, you may know them already, or not:

- He had a 1942 tryout with the Cardinals, alongside a kid he grew up with in the same St Louis neighborhood named Joe Garagiola. They offered Joe G $500 and Yogi $200, but Yogi wanted 'Garagiola dollars.' So he turned it down.
- Yogi was on a 'rocket boat' 300 yards off Normandy Beach during D-Day. He talked about how it seemed like 'The 4th of July,' and how his boat shot down one of their own planes by accident.
- At some point Branch Rickey tried to get him for the Dodgers, but he went Yankees instead.
- Dickey was a huge influence; Yogi said he played everywhere BUT catcher before turning pro.
- He still gets fired up over that 1947 steal of home by Jackie Robinson. 'He's out,' Yogi said.
- He kept getting raises, so up to $19,000 in 1951. But he and Rizzuto still worked at a clothing store in Newark in the offseason.
- He loves the AFLAC duck, says you wouldn't believe how well-trained it is (I once had a mutual colleague tell a story where Yogi wanted the guy to know that the duck didn't REALLY always quack at that exact time). They showed a commercial from the 1950s with Yogi and a talking cat, for Puss and Boots cat food. Yogi said the voice of the cat was Whitey Ford!
- Yogi was the left fielder who watched Mazeroski's famous 1960 HR fly over the fence in Game 7 of the 1960 WS. Says he never thought it was going out, and that Mantle cried like a baby afterwards.
- Still married after 55 years to wife Carmen. Asked who he'd most want in a foxhole with him, he picked her.


I should mention that the last appearance I saw him at, he signed every autograph and posed for every photo that was requested. I've seen Rizzuto do the same several times.

I should note that I'm NOT a Yankees fan.

None of this relates to the HOM, but heck, it's not a controversial pick, so....


-
   108. karlmagnus Posted: January 30, 2006 at 04:30 AM (#1843247)
As a Red Sox fan I have to say he's by far my favorite Yankee, and even if he's #3 on my '69 ballot it's a STRONG 3!
   109. OCF Posted: January 30, 2006 at 06:52 AM (#1843448)
I finally ran Berra through my offensive system. The results put him ahead of Cochrane, Hartnett, and Dickey, peak and career. The best-hitting white catcher we've seen so far.
   110. jingoist Posted: January 30, 2006 at 09:20 AM (#1843570)
Howie;
You might not be a Yankee fan but after reading your report on Yogi's recent interview I'd be willing to bet you're a Yogi fan.
The again, who isn't.
He's perhaps the most self-effacing player ever.
To think, here's a true inner-circle HOF, soon-to-be HoMer, and he acts like he doesn't think he's any big deal.
And I just love the story about Yogi telling people that the duck doesn't always quack on cue; that's almost too precious.

If ESPN was smart they'd do a whole series of multi-program in-depth interviews with guys like Berra, Musial, Ford, etc; before it's too late and we don't have their thoughts and impressions for posterity.

I'll miss Yogi more than any other ex-ballplayer when he passes.
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