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   1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:12 AM (#3785573)
I know they have their problems right now but I will be very surprised if the Phillies don't win the division by at least 5 games.
   2. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:16 AM (#3785574)
Also, if the Mets are going to have any shot at the playoffs this year, they need Dickey and Niese to be really good, 110 ERA at the very least. I do think that is possible. I really like how Niese was throwing the ball in his start.
   3. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: April 04, 2011 at 04:16 PM (#3785763)
What happened to the "Dialed In"? heading?

FWIW, one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby is "Dialed In."

So, this could be your year.
   4. billyshears Posted: April 04, 2011 at 04:30 PM (#3785777)
While the pessimism surrounding the Mets this season is certainly justified, there is enough talent on the team so that there is a somewhat reasonable "If things go right . . . " scenario where they make the playoffs. Maybe it's only a 20% probability, but it's enough to make a fan perk-up after an encouraging two game winning streak on opening weekend.
   5. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: April 04, 2011 at 04:46 PM (#3785795)
While the pessimism surrounding the Mets this season is certainly justified, there is enough talent on the team so that there is a somewhat reasonable "If things go right . . . " scenario where they make the playoffs. Maybe it's only a 20% probability, but it's enough to make a fan perk-up after an encouraging two game winning streak on opening weekend.

Definitely. 20% may be on the high side, the range of projections run by SG at RLYW showed the Mets with a 13-19% chance of making the playoffs, but there is a real chance.

Even if it's only a 15% chance, that implies >50% chance the Mets are in it until Aug or Sept, which is fun too.

No reason for Mets fans to be defeatist.
   6. Chris Dial Posted: April 04, 2011 at 06:12 PM (#3785867)
Thanks for the tip, Scori. That wager will be played.
   7. Scoriano Flitcraft Posted: April 04, 2011 at 06:33 PM (#3785884)
CD: Also, consider a separate $2 ticket suitable for framing. HW graciously hooked me up for Zenyatta's last race (which she lost, but I still intend to frame the ticket and a photo of the filly).
   8. TVerik, the gum-snappin' hairdresser Posted: April 04, 2011 at 06:41 PM (#3785890)
Are you cross-posting this, Chris? The language about BTF and SJ reads a little strangely.
   9. Chris Dial Posted: April 04, 2011 at 07:07 PM (#3785921)
Thanks, Scori.

No, TVe, just a bit of specificity
   10. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 05, 2011 at 12:26 AM (#3786150)
But really, when we have knowledge of the future - that is that David Wright will bounce back - does that decrease the enjoyment?


If you had actual knowledge of the future it would, quite obviously, decrease the "enjoyment" of sporting events. There's a reason people avoid spoilers in movies, after all. There's a reason people once covered their ears and screamed if anyone mentioned box scores for early games that had been recorded and were waiting at home. The joy of sport - the absolute, fundamental aspect of sport that makes sport *sport* - is the unscripted nature of live action games. If you were to ever have true knowledge of the future it would completely destroy your ability to enjoy events as they unfold in real time. (Though you might make it up in a Biff Tannen sort of way, the joy of life would be gone in a flash.)

Of course, you don't have actual knowledge of the future. That's just your giant hubris filled head toppling over and crushing the sad, atrophied remnants of your common ####### sense, not knowledge. What you have is a predictive model that you trust. In most cases that predictive model is functionally sound for large, very general problems. You can predict with some non-trivial degree of accuracy that Jeff Francoeur, over the course of 550 at bats, will be not-good. You can predict equally as well that Roy Halladay, barring injury, will drop 200+ innings of HOF resume on the league. You can predict that the Bucs will not play in the 2011 World Series, and that Al Pujols will push 400/600 on rate stats.

But you can't predict events. You can't predict at bats. You can't predict game outcomes with any degree of certainty. All you can do is run the model and say Captain Probability would be shocked if Frenchy takes Doc Halladay deep in this at bat, and then pick your jaw up if he does.

Which is why you come back to the game, of course. You can't predict the game. You can just make informed guesses and see if the "likely" becomes the real. Because you do not now, nor will you ever have "knowledge of the future" you over-enumerated, basement dwelling troll. Sometimes Ozzie Guillen singles off of you gas-throwing closer to take it to extra innings, where Andruw walks with the bases full.
   11. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: April 05, 2011 at 12:28 AM (#3786151)
To your point about the Mets, yes, it's spring. Hope is in the air, luv. (Admittedly, they have yet to suck enough to entertain me properly. That's annoying to me.)
   12. Sam M. Posted: April 05, 2011 at 12:33 AM (#3786156)
The Mets' chances of any sort of contention, IMHO, actually turn more on somehow getting something around 300 IP out of Capuano and Young, than they do on anything that Chris mentioned. I honestly don't see who they turn to to replace decent innings out of the back of the rotation if those guys can't keep taking turns. Mejia, I guess, but that's really pushing it (optimistic as I am about his future, and I do like him a lot down the road).
   13. Run Joe Run Posted: April 07, 2011 at 09:09 PM (#3789633)
I found that my stat-headed ness was interfering with my fandom, I started analyzing my team more than rooting for them. Then the magic starts to disappear. Sometimes it's better to yell and scream for your guy because HE'S YOUR GUY and to hell with how he hits against lefties.
   14. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 08, 2011 at 06:15 PM (#3790406)
... you can't predict events. You can't predict at bats. You can't predict game outcomes with any degree of certainty. All you can do is run the model and say Captain Probability would be shocked if Frenchy takes Doc Halladay deep in this at bat, and then pick your jaw up if he does.



A saliva test, quick! I agree with Sam H.!

(Admittedly, they have yet to suck enough to entertain me properly. That's annoying to me.)


And this line made me smile. Obviously written before Thursday...
   15. StillFlash Posted: April 22, 2011 at 05:52 AM (#3805596)
I believe we still have the Steelers SB win over Arizona on the tivo (deleted last year's Green Bay game). I think my 6 year old grandson has probably watched it 50 times. Memorized it. Even old man me, walking through the living room, I still have to stop and watch the final drive until Santonio catches it in the corner
   16. Harris Posted: May 01, 2011 at 03:49 AM (#3814364)
It’s certainly as good as the Phillies, and likely better.


How's the rotation stack up? :)

Otherwise...What Sam said in #10. You have an idea of what *should* happen, but that isn't what's going to happen. David Wright *should* rebound, but there's no guarantee. The joy of baseball is not necessarily just thinking that player x will rebound, it's will he do it now, or will the opposing RFer rob him on a hard liner. Will the 3bman choose this play to airmail a ball into the bleacher? Can Adam Dunn launch a ball 500'?

That's why it's fun. You might have an idea on the destination, but the path is unknown.

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