The narrowness of Harper's victory is going to look very embarrassing in retrospect. Miley's season wasn't nearly as impressive.

So Wade Miley doesn't play Gil McDougald to Bryce Harper's Mickey Mantle.

I have never heard of Wade Miley until this very moment. Sounds like a nautical maneuver.

I doubt anyone will remember it was a narrow victory.

Todd Frazier got three first place votes. And Wilson Rosario got one.

I doubt anyone will remember it was a narrow victory.

Yeah, down-ballot travesties have a remarkably short shelf life.

Yeah, down-ballot travesties have a remarkably short shelf life.

You mean one day people will get over Rosanne Barr beating Rocky Anderson for 6th place? I find that very hard to believe.

Where is that guy that said he'd give everyone money if Harper played in the big leagues?

Where is that guy that said he'd give everyone money if Harper played in the big leagues?

That was Lazzeri, and he made his last post (at least under that handle) a long time before Harper made his debut. And it wasn't just money he promised, but gen-u-wine dollar bucks.

I have never heard of Wade Miley until this very moment.

Thank god someone else admitted this. I now feel slightly less stupid.

I have never heard of Wade Miley until this very moment.

And I'd never heard of Wilin Rosario. (I'd heard of Miley, but couldn't even have told you who he pitched for.)

Amazing what a 101-loss season does for one's level of inattention for the regular season.

The narrowness of Harper's victory is going to look very embarrassing in retrospect. Miley's season wasn't nearly as impressive.

The guy on a .500 team who nobody had heard of in March, nearly beating the most hyped prospect since Mickey Mantle who plays for the team with the best record in baseball? Looks like an astonishing example of open-mindedness to me.

I have never heard of Wade Miley until this very moment.

well, tomorrow's his birthday... maybe get him a red velvet cake with cream cheese icing.

photo

I have never heard of Wade Miley until this very moment.

Thank god someone else admitted this. I now feel slightly less stupid.

Eh, make that 3....

I actually confused him with Drew Smyly.

I too had never heard of any of the other options on the ballot.

And had I had a vote, I would have left Harper off of it entirely.

Because #### Bryce Harper.

Guys, Wade Miley was on the freaking all star team.

Yes, nobody expected him to have this kind of a season, including me. But he was pretty good right out of the gate, made the all star team, and while he faltered a little bit in September, was actually having a better season than Harper until about the end of August. But he slumped and Harper surged in September, and Harper deserves this award. He was the best rookie. It's not that embarrassing that Miley finished this close because voters might not have been paying as much attention to this over the last couple of weeks. Prior to September 1, Miley was having the better season. FWIW, Miley actually finished 4th in the NL in Fangraphs WAR and had a lower FIP than ERA

LINKY

Really, again, Harper was better, and deserves this award. But you guys SHOULD be a bit embarrassed by not even knowing who Miley is.

The real joke here is that Bill Centers of U-T Sandiego left Miley off his ballot entirely in favor of Yonder Alonso, and his 109 OPS+ and 1.1 WAR.

That was Lazzeri, and he made his last post (at least under that handle) a long time before Harper made his debut. And it wasn't just money he promised, but gen-u-wine dollar bucks.

Given the large number of genuine dollar bucks owed to many Veteran Primates, shouldn't Repoz & Furtado be investigating Lazzeri's current BBTF handle, if not his physical whereabouts? Some folks were probably planning on donating that money to charity, after all.

Through August 26th in 104 Games Harper was hitting .248/.320/.412 .732 OPS 12 HR 37 RBI.
Through August 26th 25 G, 22 Starts Miley had a line of 14-8, 2.80 ERA 151 IP 27 BB, 109 K, 10 HR

From August 27th onward in 35 G Harper hit .338/.403/.677 1.080 OPS, 10 HR and 22 RBI
From August 27th onward Miley made 7 Starts, went 43.2 IP, and had a 5.15 ERA but walking just 10, striking out 35 and giving up 4 HR. But he gave up 53 hits.

From watching on MLB.TV whenever I could, it appeared his command suffered a bit and he was just getting too much of the plate down the stretch. His walk rate remained excellent, but command wasn't quite as good. He just got tired, while Harper went beserk.

The narrowness of Harper's victory is going to look very embarrassing in retrospect. Miley's season wasn't nearly as impressive.

Harper's late-season surge (.330/.400/.643 in Sept./Oct.) made him a deserving winner, but the Rookie of the Year Award has always been about who had the best year, not who had the best future prospects. That's why Hideo Nomo beat Chipper Jones.

Obviously what Harper was able to do as a 19-year-old with unprecedented expectations was more "impressive" than what Miley did as an unheralded 25-year-old journeyman. Barring catastrophic injury, Harper also has a 99.5% chance of having a better career than Wade Miley.

But Harper's 2012 season, though fantastic for a teenager, hardly stands out on paper: .270/.340/.477, 22 HR, 59 RBI. And I think you're underrating Miley's 2012 season. He won 16 games with a 125 ERA+, had a K/BB of almost 4, made the All-Star team, and only gave up 14 HR playing home games in Arizona. That's certainly a ROY-worthy performance, regardless of whether you think he's likely to repeat it.

For reference, the last three starting pitchers to win ROY:

2011 Jeremy Hellickson - 13-10, 189 IP, 128 ERA+, 1.63 K/BB, 3.5 WAR
2006 Justin Verlander - 17-9, 186 IP, 125 ERA+, 2.07 K/BB, 3.8 WAR
2003 Dontrelle Willis - 14-6, 160.2 IP, 127 ERA+, 2.45 K/BB, 3.7 WAR
vs.
2012 Wade Miley - 16-11, 194.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 3.89 K/BB, 3.2 WAR

EDIT: Half Coke to Shoewizard. It took a long time to write this post.

I'm surprised to see that in bWAR, 194 IP of 125 ERA+ only adds up to 3.2 WAR. But then 194 IP of league average is apparently only worth 1.3 WAR.

Rosario also had a season which would have been good enough for RoY in lots of years. A rookie C (only 23) with 28 HR (in 426 PA) is pretty impressive, even in Coors. In the Triple Crown stats:

WR 270, 28, 71
BH 270, 22, 59

in 170 fewer PA.

But you know these writers with their adjusting for park effects and valuing defense and baserunning and their Holy WAR.

Besides God himself (Giancarlo Stanton), the most ignored potential young star is the Royals' Savlvador Perez. Not rookie-eligible this year I don't think and hurt a bit this year, here are his career stats through age 22:

463 PA, 311/339/471, 121 OPS+, 4.2 WAR, 9 Rfield

and already tied up through 2019 for a max of $21.5 M (2017-9 are all team options).

2003 Dontrelle Willis - 14-6, 160.2 IP, 127 ERA+, 2.45 K/BB, 3.7 WAR

Grrr......I'm STILL not over that.

Brandon Webb 10-9, 180 IP, 165 ERA+ !! 2.53 K/BB, 6.0 WAR !!

I was under the impression that Wade Miley had been in the league for a few years now. Rosario the same. Todd Frazier too for that matter. They all just sound like 6-year journeymen. In a year with Trout and Harper getting the hype they did and tearing it up to match, it's hard to notice any other rookies in the league.

If the reporters were paying attention, Rosario would have been hurt by his low OBP--for about half the season he was flirting with a SLG twice his OBP.

The crappy team is probably what really did it. He also would have been hurt by his poor catching, though. He led the majors in passed balls.

The crappy team is probably what really did it. He also would have been hurt by his poor catching, though. He led the majors in passed balls.

He also had 13 errors, which strikes me as awfully high for a guy with just 105 games behind the dish.

By the way, I miss the circa 1998 website that they just updated a couple years ago.

I guess I can see why Frazier got as much support as he did, but I think Aoki deserved more down-ballot votes than he got. And while Lucas Harrell suffered from being a completely anonymous member of the Houston Astros, he actually had quite a praiseworthy season - 193.7 innings of a 106 ERA+, with an FIP to match. He certainly would have been more deserving of a couple of third-place votes than Jordan Pacheco or Yonder Alonso.

Back to my D backs rookie pitchers obsession

Pitchers in their first year with 165 or better ERA+ and 6.0 WAR or more. Webb, and two guys that pitched in 1905 & 1911

LINK

But Harper's 2012 season, though fantastic for a teenager, hardly stands out on paper: .270/.340/.477, 22 HR, 59 RBI.

Tony Conigliaro '67: 287/341/519 20 HRs, 67 RBI says; "Hello."

But Harper's 2012 season, though fantastic for a teenager, hardly stands out on paper: .270/.340/.477, 22 HR, 59 RBI.... And I think you're underrating Miley's 2012 season. He won 16 games with a 125 ERA+]

A 119 OPS+ for a plus defensive outfielder who was also a decent base-runner "hardly stands out", but a 125 ERA+ is "under-rated and ROY worthy".

Focusing on raw BA/OBP/SLG and RBIs (really, total RBIs? for a kid not brought till May, who hit 2nd the entire year after 8th, 9th, and leadoff positions averaging barely over a .300 OBP combined?) without adjusting to leagues offense level and while ignoring half of a position players value, then using park adjusted numbers to show how impressive a young pitcher in a home hitters park was, how to put it gently, somewhat biased.

And I'm a huge Wade Miley fan.

In measures of total value Harper lead Miley 5.0 to 3.2 in bWAR, and 4.9 to 4.8 in fWAR (which bodes well for Miley's future).

Miley deserved a lot of votes. Harper deserved to win. It was probably closer than it should have been, but Harper had the more impressive season, regardless of age.

Thank god someone else admitted this. I now feel slightly less stupid.

Aren't both of you guys NL fans? For shame.

A 119 OPS+ for a plus defensive outfielder who was also a decent base-runner "hardly stands out", but a 125 ERA+ is "under-rated and ROY worthy".

119 OPS+ was 24th in the NL this year. It was 10th among outfielders, and about half of the guys ahead of Harper were also good at defense/running. Most of them also played 10-20 more games than him. There were four more OF at 117 OPS+. So he had a very good year, sure, but it doesn't really "stand out" any more than Angel Pagan's 2012. I don't think people would have paid much attention if he was 29 and named Joe Smith.

Miley's 125 ERA+ was 10th in the NL. That's also a very good year, and compares favorably to starting pitchers who have won ROY in the past, yet most people don't "rate" Miley as one of the NL's best pitchers.

Miley deserved a lot of votes. Harper deserved to win.

Anyway, if you re-read my post, especially the first sentence, I think this is exactly what I said. Harper was more "impressive" for multiple reasons that we are all aware of, but if you're giving the award based entirely on performance in the 2012 season, Harper deserved to win, but he and Miley were pretty close.

I just think it's hardly ridiculous or embarrassing that Miley finished a close second, because Harper's 2012 performance -- ignoring his age and his future -- was certainly ROY-worthy but was not particularly remarkable like, say, Pujols in 2001 or Trout this year. He wasn't a cannot-be-denied, slam-dunk choice. And Miley's 2012 performance, again, ignoring his age and his future, is not notably different from some starting pitching seasons that did win Rookie of the Year. I'm a little hesitant to compare pitchers to batters based on WAR, but the fact that fWAR has them at 4.9 and 4.8 suggests that, yeah, they were pretty close.

So they were both worthy candidates, and Harper was a bit better. Where do we disagree?

And had I had a vote, I would have left Harper off of it entirely.

Because #### Bryce Harper.

That's it, I think. A lot of voters wanted to prove they were "independent thinkers" and didn't "give in to the hype". (Ah, peer pressure. It doesn't end at your high school graduation, kids.)

In measures of total value Harper lead Miley 5.0 to 3.2 in bWAR

Harper's WAR was the highest on a team that won 98 games, and the best-ever for a teenager. 'Nuff said.

i am glad for aoki who finished with a rush scoring 24 runs and hitting 13 doubles in september. he can't play center so he's kind of a tweener since he's never going to hit 25 plus homers. but on the brewers his contact and hitting lefty help provide a bit of balance to the plethora of power/swing and miss guys in the lineup.

hustling player. fun to watch

rosario is a dreadful catcher. he qualifies as a catcher only in the stengel sense in that if you don't have somebody behind the plate you will have a lot of passed balls but boy, he's tough to watch.

Besides God himself (Giancarlo Stanton), the most ignored potential young star is the Royals' Savlvador Perez. Not rookie-eligible this year I don't think and hurt a bit this year, here are his career stats through age 22:

463 PA, 311/339/471, 121 OPS+, 4.2 WAR, 9 Rfield

and already tied up through 2019 for a max of $21.5 M (2017-9 are all team options).

I mentioned Perez at one point a in September, and it killed the thread. I guess that's what KC does to a guy. He's really fun to watch. He rarely strikes out (he only had 15 in 189 ABs prior to Sept.), ridiculous arm, and very athletic behind the plate despite being a HUGE man. His thighs are probably close to 30" around.



I'm shocked people didn't know about Miley, he was good all year. If you're just hearing about him now, you obviously haven't followed AZ at all, so go look up the year Aaron Hill had. He did hit two cycles though, so maybe you'vbe already looked him up.



As for Harper, the most shocking thing for me was his being only 10 runs off the leage lead despite only playing 139 games.

cold

mike trout led all of baseball and the american league in runs scored by 20 and he only played 139 games

just a heads up for when others read your harper remark

The decisions I have made in my life that have led me to not knowing who Wade Miley is have now all been vindicated.

cold

mike trout led all of baseball and the american league in runs scored by 20 and he only played 139 games

just a heads up for when others read your harper remark

I know, but he took the league by storm from day one. Harper snuck up on us. Most of the year, I was thinking, wow, he's pretty good for a teenager, but in the end he was good, period.

Harper snuck up on us

Well...Harper sure snuck up on Cole Hamels, yuk, yuk!

For those who want the Field of Dreams version of this news, Thom Boswell checks in from the Washington Post.

rosario is a dreadful catcher. he qualifies as a catcher only in the stengel sense in that if you don't have somebody behind the plate you will have a lot of passed balls but boy, he's tough to watch.

The funny thing about Rosario is that he throws pretty well, but boy howdy, he just can't catch the ball. He's a very impressive hitter, though, and if I were the Rockies I would spend the winter throwing Wilin Rosario 100 pitches in the dirt every day, till he figures out how to stop them.

tom

you think it's an eyesight thing? he seems to get distracted by the batter swinging at times

The odd thing about Rosario's catching is that he had been a catching prospect in the system for a long time, since at least 2007. (Incidentially, he also appeared in the 2010 documentary about the Rockies' Dominican academy, the one for which Ubaldo Jimenez won a regional Emmy for his narration. There was some mention of how recent weight loss was helping him while hitting, but nothing on his D.)

Some of those passed balls have to be due to carelessness and so maybe they can be improved, but you'd think someone would have already tried to correct his issues in the minors.

119 OPS+ was 24th in the NL this year. It was 10th among outfielders, and about half of the guys ahead of Harper were also good at defense/running. Most of them also played 10-20 more games than him. There were four more OF at 117 OPS+. So he had a very good year, sure, but it doesn't really "stand out" any more than Angel Pagan's 2012. I don't think people would have paid much attention if he was 29 and named Joe Smith.

Miley's 125 ERA+ was 10th in the NL. That's also a very good year, and compares favorably to starting pitchers who have won ROY in the past, yet most people don't "rate" Miley as one of the NL's best pitchers.

I only disagree with your inability to restrain yourself from subtly belittling Harpers performance. Framing him by OPS+ as only 10th among outfielders while wonderful wade was 10th among all pitchers is very misleading. There are 80 starter slots among 16 NL teams, but also 48 outfield spots. And using OPS+ to tag him as him "only" 10th out of a pool of 48 of the most valuable position players, when his base running and defense actually put him higher is, again, disingenuous. Dinging him for the club decision to hold him in the minors for a month is the same.

He was a lot more valuable than his raw OPS+ rank. Bryce was 15th in the NL in fWAR among ALL position players. And had the Nationals brought him along at season start, he likely finishes 11th or 12th in WAR. Any of 11th - 15th out of a pool of 128 is a bit better than 10th out of a pool of 80.

And, yes, I'm as surprised as you at what a great season Angel Pagan had. But look at Aaron Hill!

And you should be slightly ashamed of what you've helped do to me. I'm a Diamondbacks fan, nuts for Wade. I'm also an original Harper Hater who hasn't been to church in 30 years.

Yet here I am tediously typing out dissertations in praise of him on an iPad no less, only one step from putting on a firm white collar and going door to door to tell folks about the great words and deeds of our Lord and Savior Bryce.

What a crazy season this was.

I mentioned Perez at one point a in September, and it killed the thread. I guess that's what KC does to a guy. He's really fun to watch. He rarely strikes out (he only had 15 in 189 ABs prior to Sept.), ridiculous arm, and very athletic behind the plate despite being a HUGE man. His thighs are probably close to 30" around.

I'm surprised how much pop he has. I saw him absolutely crush one the opposite field.

I think he's always going to be plagued by a low OBA though, as his plate discipline is not all that great and I think he's been a bit lucky in not striking out. he's obviously not going to be a .311 hitter going forward. But he'll probably win a bunch of Gold Gloves in the next few years, and slug .400-.450 which will be quite valuable, especially at his price.

you think it's an eyesight thing? he seems to get distracted by the batter swinging at times

It could be. Rosario's hitting profile is also that of a man who doesn't see all that well - he has horrible strike zone judgment, but when he connects, he hits the ball extremely hard.