Wednesday, May 01, 2013
OT: NBA Monthly Thread - May 2013
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posted 3 weeks ago by Athletic Supporter gangnam style to basketball, nba, off-topic
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937 comment(s)
I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about straight NBA players, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: gay NBA players and craft beer.
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1 2 3 4 5 6 > Last ›The Wolves are about where I thought they would be, with injury and recovery from injury being the biggest story thus far. The goal the rest of the season is to get/stay healthy and firmly establish how all the pieces fit together. For all the crap Khan got over the years (much of uit deserved) I think he has put together a very interesting team on paper, that could fit together really really well.
Goal: Make playoffs.
Stretch Goal: 4th to 6th seed, first round victory.
Roy was a risk, but nobody expected Budinger AND the guy they signed to replace the injured players becoming injured.
Curious what Ainge will do if the Celtics have a losing record on January 15, which seems fairly likely.
The C's talk has pretty much been non-existent in the threads this season. Especially compared to the Lakers high-profile troubles. What is the problem with the C's? Age? The annual regular season blues (aka turn it on in the playoffs)? I wasn't buying the C's in the preseason, despite the talk of the upgraded depth, but have barely seen them play.
Do the Lakers and Clippers have permanent locker rooms, with a 3rd locker room for the road team? So for a Lakers-Clippers game, both teams are in their usual home locker rooms? Are there separate player parking lots? I wonder if they would even know it's a "road" game until the season ticket holders show up.
I love how crotchety Kobe is becoming in his old age. Maybe I just wasn't paying close enough attention before, but I don't remember him being quite so blunt all the time when he was younger. I really think he's turned into one of the most consistently entertaining interviews in the league.
Goal: Survive until Rose comes back.
Stretch Goal: Win division. Do actual damage in playoffs.
They started worse than I expected, bounced back and played as good as I'd hoped, and now are playing worse than I could have imagined (last 4.5 games - this slump actually started in that Knicks game when they almost blew another 20+ point lead). They're still in great shape to win the Central, because the Pacers and Bucks aren't any better. Rose is traveling with the team this week to Florida, so that's going to get the fans in a lather. Still sounds like All Star break is about when he'll be back.
edit: I should add that I don't think Stern will let this stand and will figure out some way to sabotage the Warriors. I've been watching Day of the Jackal, the Manchurian Candidate, etc. to get an idea of what he might be up to.
I hope so. I want mom to be happy!
John Wall is still hurt, I see.
Donald Sterling's son Scott, dead at 32, drug overdose.
In case anyone is wondering, this is not actually an exaggeration. The only downside is that the "game experience" is the worst thing I've ever encountered in sports.
Reason for optimism: Lakers are worse than expected, and I'm holding out hope for a second lottery pick.
The Warriors usually figure out a way to do this themselves. They don't need Stern's help.
Normally I'm happy when teams that usually suck finally have some success, but it's hard for me to get behind the Warriors when their shameless tanking last year cost the Jazz a draft pick. I hate rooting for players to get hurt, but if you fake injuries to weasel your way into a draft pick you don't deserve, it would almost seem karmic if your season came crashing down the following year due to some real injuries...
SAN +10
DEN +7
GOL +7
NYK +6
OKC +6
MIA +5
ATL +4
MEM +3
MIN +2
UTA +2
LAC +1
MIL +1
POR +1
Right now, these are a bit misleading, the Clippers and Golden State, for example, have much better road records than Denver, but the Nuggets have a +7 having played twice as many games on the road as at home.
Denver should be able to go 12-5, 13-4 in January, that's with at least 1 home loss. That would put them at 32-20, and probably around the 5th seed.
All that said, as a fan I've been a little disappointed so far in their progress. Koufas and McGee have made a very solid C combo (18 pts/11 rb). Kenneth Faried has definitely stepped up (15/12). He needs to continue to work on low post defense, but looks like he can go 16/12 for years to come. Corey Brewer has become a consistent energy guy off the bench, good defense and good enough offense.
The disappointments:
- Ty Lawson and Andre Iguodala have been horribly inconsistent on offense. Iggy some games just can't even hit the backboard, and Lawson seems to need to be constantly reminded he can take over games when he wants to with his speed
- Gallinari has been consistently off in his shooting, only 40% from the field
- As a team, they are too easily intimidated on the road. Especially when Faried is fully engaged, they can be a physically imposing defensive team that should carry them when they can't shoot.
Iguodala at times looks like he thinks he needs to be a 20 point scorer for the Nuggets to resign him long-term. I think if he can settle down go back to being a "stat-line filler" (14 pts, 5 RB, 4 Asst, 2 steals) and do it efficiently, Lawson and Gallinari can settle into their roles (one has to be a 20-point scorer), and the Nuggets can still become a very good team this year.
I love that Koufas knows it's going in and raises his fist right after McGee releases it.
---
Jimmy, so far, so good. I'm not going to go overboard with my like of him, considering how things went with Weber his first 2 years. Just like then though, the current roster seems perfectly built for the new coach's system (or he's done a helluva job adapting his system to the personnel). Their 3 point shooting has starting regressing the last couple of games, but they're not as reliant on that as it seems since they have multiple guys who can create their own shot or can create for others. Abrams is playing like a poor man's Ty Lawson (when it's on, it's pretty, when he's off it's bad). Paul was pretty bad against Auburn Saturday (but got to the FT line a lot). They have a fatal flaw though, and it's going to be exposed in Big Ten play - they're an awful rebounding team. But back to Groce, I appreciate him because they're fun to watch again. He took a boring team full of athletic shooters and is actually letting them play basketball and not pass-it-around-the-perimeter-for-30-seconds-and-no-driving-allowed-ball. I will not make a final judgment on him for a couple more years though (recruiting is off to a so-so start, but better than Weber's first 5 years).
Wow, the return of the dreaded b2b2b.
Judging from boxscore, looks like Deron outplayed or at least played Westbrook to a draw, and Westbrook had a good shooting game. 19 points on 12 shots, 13 assists, 2 TOs, 5 steals for Deron.
Not that the Bulls, who almost blew a 18 point lead in Orlando, are a better option at this point.
Can't remember who the other guy was with the Paul George mancrush, but he's making us look good over the last 20 or so games.
Me. I gotta remind myself how young is he all the time.
and speaking of mancrushes, jrue holiday just hit his 2nd career triple double. it's not exactly a model of efficiency (14 points on 16 shots, plus 5 turnovers), but he's been big.
Blind test! (tm Rob Neyer)
Player Usg TS% Reb% Ast% TO% ORtg---------------------------------------------------
Player A .240 .577 16.1 4.3 .129 109.8
Player B .251 .567 16.0 4.4 .110 109.6
Player B .251 .567 16.0 4.4 .110 109.6
Assuming one is Lee and the other is Griffin, I imagine what we draw from this is that David Lee is indeed a top 10 player. Which may at the moment be so - right behind Griffin at #9 in Win Shares on Basketball Ref is ... David Lee. Which even as a Warrior's fan I also find hysterical and probably not true. There are a whole lot of PFs on that top 20 list - 6 by conventional thinking, and that's not including LeBron, Carmelo, and Duncan (if you want to call him a PF). If 9 of the top 20 players in the league are PFs by Win Shares, we're either in the Golden Era of power forwards or perhaps there are some positional adjustments to be made.
They're an interesting team to watch for many reason, but it seems unlikely that this sort of style would get them past the first round. (though they do have a small chance I guess, given that Memphis seem to have a serious problem of ever winning games in Houston, if they get matched up against the Grizzlies they have a shot)
Not exactly breaking news to Philly fans. :)
Heh.
And btw, NateRob's contract is fully guaranteed for the year now. So that was a whole lot about nothing (and another change to point out Bucher was wrong).
Oh boy, the Celtics. I have been holding off on talking about the Celtics - for most teams, I don't think we learn too much about what they'll be at playoff time before Christmas, especially with a team like the Celtics, so I've been holding off on making any real judgments on where they stand.
The C's have a bunch of problems:
1) The biggest is team defense with Garnett off the floor. The Celtics allow 99 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which would make them a top notch team D - only they allow 114 per 100 when he's on the bench, a number. Basically, when Garnett is on the floor they have the best defense in the NBA, and when he's off, they have the worst by a significant margin. They need him for both the physical things he does on defense as well as getting his teammates in the right place. The guy is still a marvel, but he's 36, and he's not about to start playing more minutes, not in the regular season, anyway. This is the issue I have the most trouble seeing get worked out unless they can somehow trade for a defense/rebounding big.
2) The "depth" they've added has been a mixed bag at best. Terry has been passable at best offensively, and is of course a sieve on D. Courtney Lee has forgotten how to shoot 3s and is a disaster defensively. Sullinger is like a smarter Big Baby, but that also means he gets his shot blocked at the rim a lot for a big man, and he lacks the physicality to D up certain guys. Brandon Bass is shooting 44% (career FG%: 49). And, Jeff Green. One, maybe two of these guys need to show some improvement, either in offensive efficiency or team defense. Or, get traded.
3) Rondo continues to flummox. The fact that he gets to the line 2.5 times per game is unacceptable. In order for them to score enough points to have an average offense (the Celtics path to contention this year was to maintain the top tier defense and nudge the offense up to average somehow), they need Rondo going to the basket more (among other things - but when it's "your team"...).
The hope for the Celtics is the following:
-- Age doesn't seem to be the issue, at least for Pierce and Garnett. Pierce is still a reasonably efficient scorer and a smart, if no longer quite as physically capable (ahem, Gerald Wallace) defender. Garnett is still among the top few defenders in the league and will be able to shoot 18 footers into his 40s. Terry may be on the wane, but he's less important than the other two.
-- Avery Bradley is back. He's not the savior some C's fans have made him out to be, but given the defense they have from their current backcourt outside of Rondo (Terry, Barbosa, and Lee....oof) there's an opportunity to make a significant upgrade. Bradley was also making corner 3s last year, so the hope would be he can simultaneouly upgrade that spot and make Courtney Lee expendable for a...
-- ...trade for a big man who can defend and rebound. Fixing whatever is wrong with the defense needs to be job one, because the Celtics are dead without it. They need someone who can defend inside and keep things reasonable when Garnett is off the court. A little low post scoring wouldn't hurt either, but let's not get greedy, given the Celtics will likely be offering a Courtney Lee pupu platter in return.
-- They've done this before. In 2010, they were a .500 team for the last 2/3 of the season and were a Ron Artest three or so from a title. Last year, they started 15-17 with a less talented roster, and a few months later they had a 3-2 lead on Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. Obviously, that's no guarantee they turn it around - maybe they are just old, finish 40-42 with the 8th seed, and get pasted Miami in the 1st round. However, I'm not convinced they're done just yet. We'll see what they do at the deadline, see if Bradley makes any difference, and check back in 20-30 more games. If they're like 27-33 at the 60 game mark, I'll be ready to say they're probably not coming back. The thing to watch is their D-rating - if they start to creep back up towards the top of the league, they're in play to be Miami fodder (barring injuries). If they stay middle of the pack, where they are now, it's all over.
Even still though - if you're, say, the Knicks, and you get the 2 seed....isn't a 7th seeded Celtics team suddenly playing Garnett at pierce 38 minutes per night the last thing you'd want to see in round 1?
Seems like as good a lead in for a Hawks comment as possible.
When the Hawks traded everyone but Horford and Smith last off-season, I think most Hawks fans (there are 12 of us, we have a small email list we exchange recipes on) thought the Hawks would be worse than before. My "basketball-smart" buddy suggested after the dust had settled that Lou Williams was probably as good as Johnson, all things told, and that the new team should be about the same but more fun to watch because they're faster and should run more. That was the only place I heard that (and I am the opposite of a stat-savvy basketball fan, personally.)
That seems to have been a prescient prediction.
The guy had a bad game last night, it happens, especially on the second night of a road back to back. He also just had a stretch where his team went undefeated for a month and he shot 59% from the field. Duncan has had some bad games this year too, including a game where they got blown out by the Clippers and he had only 10 points and 6 rebounds, nobody is going to use that one game to judge him.
Kevin Love is shooting 35% this year, I doubt anyone thinks that is his true talent level, he's not having a great year. I'm not seeing it with Aldridge either, his TS% is only 52% and his rebound rate is weak. Lee is having a good year and his raw numbers look even better because he's playing a ton of minutes (same with Aldridge); it will be interesting to see if he can sustain it, he's playing significantly better than his past two seasons, his defense does count against him compared to most of these other guys though. Millsap his having a bit of an off year, he doesn't seem terribly close these guys, I'd probably put him behind all of them and Zach Randolph.
I watched a lot of that game. The Nets came out red hot from the field (especially Johnson) and got up about 20 through a quarter. They spent the rest of the game playing really slowly through Lopez and got just enough to hold on. Westbrook and Ibaka did some nice things in leading the Thunder back (the former by pushing the tempo and the latter by running with him). They actually tied the game up in the 4th, but they were just out of gas at that point. I don't know if I would say Deron played as will as Westbrook (several of his points were on intentional fouls at the end and several of his assists were on long makes by Lopez), but he at least played well enough that it was not a mismatch.
The thing I have not understood is how they improved defensively by adding big doses of Lou Williams, Kyle Korver, and Anthony Morrow to the rotation. Good on them for doing it, though.
No, no he is not. He can't make anything. I think part of it is that is release is wrong after the hand injury and part of it is that he did not get to do his normal training while hurt so he still looks like he doesn't have his legs (why a hand injury would ruin your cardio and leg strength, I have no idea, but he has always worked hard, so I give him the benefit of the doubt). Last night was probably the worst game of the year for the Wolves. Even when they were holding it together against the Jazz, it was offensive smoke and mirrors. They can't shoot, there is no creativity in the playmaking, and they are pretty much totally reliant on dumping it to Pekovic to plow through however many defenders come at him (since he does not pass). Still, I have to think that Love will get hot at some point and Rubio will contribute SOMETHING, but the taste in my mouth at the moment is pretty gross.
Several people here were high-ish on them*, and one of the previews (can't remember if it was Pelton or Lowe) had them 2nd in the East. The one thing most of us talked about here was how bad/mediocre/even the rest of the East was after Miami. Different people had different teams they liked more than others, and reasons for not liking the other teams. Well, outside of the Knicks hot start, just about every other East team has done things to prove their doubters right. But the Hawks seems to have been the most consistent of that bunch, which is impressive considering the turnover.
There seem to always be a bunch of PFs high up on the win shares board. If we go back 10 years to 2002-03, which I don't think anyone would describe as a golden era of power forwards, in the top 20 there we have Duncan (again, call him what you like), Nowitzki, Garnett, Marion (played a lot of PF), Malone, O'Neal (Jermaine), P.J. Brown, you could throw Stojakovic in there, and Abdur-Rahim. That's another 9 guys who spent either all or a lot of time at PF. Or another 10 years, 1992-93: Malone, Barkley, Larry Nance, Detlef Schrempf, Larry Johnson, Derrick Coleman, Horace Grant, Shawn Kemp. That's 8.
PF seems to be a position where it's easy(er) to put up big stats, probably because if you were a better defender and/or bigger you would be playing center. So you have a bunch of guys matched up on each other who have weaknesses on D, plus they're not getting worn down as much by going against/playing great D, so they can play more minutes - if you switch of to WS/48 all those PFs, even the studs, start dropping down the list.
Shooting wise yes, passing wise not so much. He had so many turnovers against the Lakers I was expecting him to come out in a Laker jersey in the 2nd half.
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