Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Molina was such an ordinary offensive player for the first seven years of his career that I can't see him make any kind of run at the Hall of Fame. (It's not just that those 7 years dilute his rate stats; it's also that he doesn't figure to have another ten years of healthy catching ahead of him.)
But that's to take nothing away from his current performance, which is absolutely outstanding.
Despite Molina's very impressive 2011-13 seasons, his career OPS+ is 98. Jorge Posada's is 121
As of now, Molina has put up about 1400 PAs of 116 OPS+ play and Posada put up more than 7000. No one is penalizing Molina for playing earlier; will he be able to put up these numbers for long? If not, he's going to have a weak offensive resume.
I don't think I said anything that denigrated Molina's defensive abilities, but if he's still below 100 OPS+ for his career now, there is a good chance his decline phase will leave him below 100 for his career. Now I would certainly argue that catchers are underrepresented in Cooperstown -- Freehan being a good example -- but there doesn't seem to be any pattern of electing good defensive catchers who didn't hit their way into the Hall of Fame. And just for clarification, I cited Posada's OPS+ not so much to argue that Jorge is a superior candidate, but just to note that there is very large offensive gap between Molina and a catcher who some regard as not a lock for the HoF.
Barring a time when fancy defensive stats are widely accepted, I'd guess Molina will have to make it to 10 GG to merit much consideration.
I think acceptance of defensive stats would hurt Molina actually. He's saved something like 10 runs per year with his arm and prevention of passed balls. I'm guessing the average fan thinks Yadier is much more valuable than that defensively.
If your comfortable with those catcher framing numbers that's going to raise the bar for catchers in the hall. 55 WAR isn't necessarily gonna cut it (and that's a fairly optimistic scenario for Yadi's career). I think Yadi's reputation as a fielder is much greater than the actual measurable value of his fielding, which is something like 15 runs a season including the catcher framing. If he gets in it'll be because he'll have the reputation of a top 5 defensive catcher of all time who also had a good offensive peak and won a few WS on teams with good pitching staffs. If you're trying to quantify his value, he's gonna end up the 3rd or 4th or 5th best catcher of his era, much closer to McCann and Martin than to Mauer and (likely) Posey.
Right now Mauer has a very comfortable lead on Molina, and is (in baseball reference terms) effectively the same age. Mauer's bat is too valuable, and his defense isn't great enough, to keep him as a catcher--think of Joe Torre who was pretty similar in value as a player over a similar number of games.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
Login to Join (1 members)
Page rendered in 0.5839 seconds, 58 querie(s) executed