1) Sean Marshall must be ecstatic to be compared to Don Mossi.
2) Geovany Soto -- we aren't selling jeans here.

Pretty funny that the league average is drawn right between Dempster and Zambrano.

Disappointing projection for Castro--that's pretty much what he's done to this point.

OTOH, I'd take that out of Brett Jackson, for sure.

What's the latest on Zambrano? Can he, practically, play for the Cubs next year or are they going to have to dump him?

With Hendry gone (and probably Quade too), I don't see any reason not to see what Z has left, since he's under contract anyway and the rotation's a wasteland.

1) It's unclear - so are these ZIPs Theo-adjusted or not?

2) If LaHair could be guaranteed that slash line, 24 HRs and a 107 OPS+ -- then I wholeheartedly say give him the job, pay him $450K and reassess next year.

2) If LaHair could be guaranteed that slash line, 24 HRs and a 107 OPS+ -- then I wholeheartedly say give him the job, pay him $450K and reassess next year.

Problem is, you don't have a FA market that includes Pujols and Fielder next year. Unless you mean give LaHair a corner OF slot...

There is no Prince or Albert next year. 107 OPS+ out of a 29 year old "rookie" with no glove is not something you want moving forward. Especially not when you pass on Prince Albert and have nothing like them coming up in the offseason of 2012-2013.

Dan does not want to hear it.

Are we allowed to point out that apparently ZiPS itself was so shocked it forgot to do a defensive projection for ARam?

Starlin Castro SS 34% 36% 19% 10% 2% Derek Jeter Robin Yount George Brett

From ZiPS' lips to God's ear!

Disappointing projection for Castro--that's pretty much what he's done to this point.

See above.

Dan, has any other young player ever had 3 HoFers as their top comps?

See above.

Yeah, fair enough, and it's not like having the next Edgar Renteria's a bad thing anyway. The comps are certainly encouraging; I was just looking at the stat line. One would hope Starlin can take a step or two forward next year, and I think his increased power in the second half of 2011 is an encouraging sign in that regard.

Those are some interesting comps for Josh Vitters...how heavily is defense factored into these comparisons? Betemit and McGehee lose a lot of value with their (lack of) glove, though I certainly see the offensive comparison.

Wow this is pretty much the definition of an 82-win team. Well, maybe they are an outfielder and 120 innings of Cashner away.

Player A: 286/344/491, 120 OPS+, +33 Rbat
Player B: 255/313/413, 106 OPS+, +1 Rbat

Wanders off, whistling quietly. :-)

FR/99 for Aramis. Sorry I cut off the defensive projection for him.

Dan, if it's not too much trouble, I'd love to see a career projection for Castro. Or maybe just letting us know what ZiPS thinks his prime looks like.

Dan, has any other young player ever had 3 HoFers as their top comps?

Dunno. I would guess *somebody* has.

Aramis is compared to Brooks Robinson and doesn't even get a defensive rating?? :)

EDIT: And I don't even hit refresh???

Gern, I actually tend to agree with you, it would be nice to see Castro take a big step up in something (which he didn't do last year). Guy has to learn to take a walk to start with. I am stunned at how good those comps are.

Of course, through age 21, Yount had yet to crack a 100 OPS+, Brett had 2 career HR and Jeter had yet to bang his first starlet so you don't need to have achieved much* to get comped to them at that age.

*Other than the absurdly difficult feat of making the majors by 21.

here's a question. the best player on this team is 22 years old. if they're committed to getting on of the other NL central 1Bmen, does the difference in age between pujols and fielder at all factor in to which one is the top target? pujols will be 32 on opening day while prince fielder will only be 27. is that an insignificant difference or should it be a major factor in deciding who's the top target?

Going down Castro's comp list:

Derek Jeter
Robin Yount
George Brett
Paul Molitor
Hanley Ramirez
Steve Sax
Alan Trammell
Garry Templeton
Troy Tulowitzki
Carney Lansford
Zoilo Versalles
Roberto Alomar
Jim Fregosi
Adrian Beltre
Edgar Renteria
Chris Speier
Cecil Travis
Robinson Cano
Joe Thurston
Buddy Bell
Lou Boudreau

Going through Castro's Prime:

Year BA/OBP/SLG WAR
2012 301/343/432 3.5
2013 308/352/464 4.4
2014 310/356/475 4.8
2015 311/359/479 5.0
2016 310/359/487 5.2
2017 309/360/483 5.1
2018 304/357/479 4.8
2019 304/357/479 4.7
2020 302/354/471 4.3
2021 300/351/466 3.9

ZiPS likes Castro.

It is very hard to reconcile positive defensive ratings for Soriano with my visual defensive rating.

I still think Castro has great defensive potential. I can only hope a new coaching staff and overall organization philosophy can help him reach that potential (not to mention the offensive potential hinted at in his comps).

I agree with 12, these projections really aren't that bad.

Wait, what in the world is Ramon Ortiz doing in the majors? When I first saw his name up there I assumed it must be a different Ramon Ortiz... until I saw age 39. He's been pretty toasty since 2005...

Those are some interesting comps for Josh Vitters...how heavily is defense factored into these comparisons? Betemit and McGehee lose a lot of value with their (lack of) glove, though I certainly see the offensive comparison.

If I understand the intro correctly, and I'm pretty sure I do, the hitting comparisons are based equally on hitting and fielding.

Of course, through age 21, Yount had yet to crack a 100 OPS+, Brett had 2 career HR and Jeter had yet to bang his first starlet so you don't need to have achieved much* to get comped to them at that age.

Remember, I have 40 years of minor league data in there - I got lots more young middle infielders to compare players to than major leaguers.

That is what happens when 2/5ths of your rotation goes down in the first week and Zambrano goes nuts.

OK, last year Castro was comped to Jeter, Yount and the immortal Frankie Gustine.

Meanwhile Heyward got Callison, Griffey (Jr I assume) and Buddy Lewis. Longoria got Rolen, Zimmerman and Wright (probably 0 HoFers and maybe 3 HoMers). Justin Upton got Tartabull, BJ and Sixto. Mike Trout got Ashburn, Baldelli and Raines (Sr I assume).

Trout's comps after this year will be interesting.

If I understand the intro correctly, and I'm pretty sure I do, the hitting comparisons are based equally on hitting and fielding.

You forgot that he also figures in their pitching potential as well.

Jeff Beliveau
John Gaub
Trey McNutt
Austin Bibens-Dirk

Admit it, you're just making up names.

here's a question. the best player on this team is 22 years old. if they're committed to getting on of the other NL central 1Bmen, does the difference in age between pujols and fielder at all factor in to which one is the top target? pujols will be 32 on opening day while prince fielder will only be 27. is that an insignificant difference or should it be a major factor in deciding who's the top target?

I think it's a factor, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs treat "age" as more than just a number for Pujols and Fielder. I have no idea how you'd go about measuring it, but the Cubs could look at Fielder's physique and factor an early decline into their calculations. Though it seems like Pujols hasn't exactly been a model of good health lately.

Without steroids I don't think anyone is going to age gracefully let alone improve.

If you can get it, and you can't, I'd take Prince on a 6 year deal. ARod's 10 year contracts really screwed up the market.

Remember, I have 40 years of minor league data in there - I got lots more young middle infielders to compare players to than major leaguers.

I know, I was just making a funny.

But jiminy christmas that's an impressive set of comps.

is that an insignificant difference or should it be a major factor in deciding who's the top target?

Normally it would be a huge, pretty much deciding factor (assuming similar performance and years/$$). In this case, it's still a major factor but Prince is a big tub of goo while Albert still stole 9 of 10 bases.

But, as tubs of goo go, Fielder's a good bet. First, even standard tubs of goo generally last through at least 32 and Prince is not an extreme "old man skills" kinda guy (the BA and K-rate are pretty good) so I could easily see him being a David Ortiz or even Willie Stargell through his 30s.

I'll personally take Albert anyway.

An 81 OPS+ is a pretty impressively low forecast for a guy with a 25% chance of hitting .300 or better.

Wait, what in the world is Ramon Ortiz doing in the majors? When I first saw his name up there I assumed it must be a different Ramon Ortiz... until I saw age 39. He's been pretty toasty since 2005...

He and Russ Ortiz were together on the Dodgers in 2010, and when they played the Pirates to open the season I went nuts trying to keep track of which one was which.

Austin Bibens-Dirk

It's actually better than that - it got truncated by the character limit. His full last name is actually Bibens-Dirkx.

If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a ZiPS for Jack-of-all-trades Ryan Flaherty? He had a pretty nice 2/3 of a season at AA last year.

Sean Marshall to the rotation, please.

Sean Marshall to the rotation, please.

Yeah, I'd like to see him get another shot at this. I know it was tried when he first came up, but I don't think he was left there for very long.

Can we please get a Jeff Stevens projection?

Sean Marshall to the rotation, please.

And I just started liking him, too.

There is no Prince or Albert next year. 107 OPS+ out of a 29 year old "rookie" with no glove is not something you want moving forward. Especially not when you pass on Prince Albert and have nothing like them coming up in the offseason of 2012-2013.

Sure - I get that - and I'm saying LaHair is any sort of a long-term answer.

It's solely a matter of expecting them to be a 75 win team year, then perhaps slightly better or slightly worse (depending on whether Castro takes a step forward, Cashner truly become a good upper-middle rotation option, etc) the year after.

I don't see any real value between 75 and 80 wins - so why spend 20 million on someone who gives you a better shot at 80?

Maybe if Pujols were 2-3 years younger or Fielder had 2-3 fewer planetoids orbiting him - or maybe if either of them played a premium position, sure.

But the next couple years are going to be pretty barren. No sense in loading up on big contracts this offseason.

If LaHair projects to be league average, stick at 1B, saving the 19,500,000 X whatever - go for it... reassess when/if Castro has cemented his stardom, Garza is guaranteed gone or a long-term mainstay, and Theo has found the bargains elsewhere. A team with big revenue at the bottom of the success cycle doesn't need to be spending just because it can, especially not for a 1B.

I don't see any real value between 75 and 80 wins - so why spend 20 million on someone who gives you a better shot at 80?

A) Because Prince Albert isn't likely to be the only addition
B) You have 2013, 2014, 2015, . . . to worry about.
C) The Cubs have nothing in their system that can play first base at an average level for them in 2013.
D) After Prince Albert this year there is nothing that can impact the Cubs record like they can and that is especially true at the first base position.

By punting this FA season you would be hurting the Cubs' record in years to come and not just in 2012.

If LaHair projects to be league average, stick at 1B, saving the 19,500,000 X whatever - go for it...

LaHair is projecting to be a below league average first baseman.

A team with big revenue at the bottom of the success cycle doesn't need to be spending just because it can, especially not for a 1B.

There really is no such thing as a success cycle for large revenue teams. Theo can make this team a playoff contender for next year this offseason.

The other thing to consider is...does Epstein think he can get the Cubs competitive by 2014?
If yes, then having Pujols or Fielder around is a good thing. (And if he doesn't think either of them will be any good in 2014 then he wouldn't sign either of them no matter where in the success cycle they are)
If no, then he's sure coming into this expecting a long, long haul.

I don't think he would have taken the job if he didn't think the team could compete by 2014. There is no reason in the world, except gross mismanagement, that would render the Cubs unable to compete by 2013 at the latest.

I assumed Pena was toast a couple years ago. He still looks like a viable option for someone at 1B. I imagine he'd come very cheap too.

Does ARam have a shot at the Hall? Those are pretty good numbers for a 3B. Of course, his having no defensive rating whatsoever is troubling.

There's also the question of what would the Cubs do with that $20 M savings? I don't really know of any substantiated cases where an owner said "save $20 M this year and I'll let you spend it next year." The Cubs already spend heavily in the draft and there's nothing to spend $20 M on in the draft anyway. I suppose they could build a baseball academy somewhere or put it into upgrades of Wrigley now so they won't have to spend $20 M on it later. But chances are if the Cubs shave $20 M off the payroll, almost all of it goes into Ricketts' pockets.

The tougher question would seem to be "what are the best long-term investments the Cubs can make this offseason?" On the FA market, the best bets would seem to be Fielder and Pujols, maybe Reyes (durability a concern ... and that we don't need a SS). But there's no reason the Cubs can't play the role of the team that takes on the excellent, increasingly expensive player in exchange for not much, then signs that guy to a ridiculous contract. I don't know who's available in that regard but would love to grab a real solution at 3B, 2B, CF or the rotation. The only position player fitting that description who isn't (I don't think) under a very team friendly contract and approaching FA is Matt Kemp ... and, as these things go, I'm not the biggest Kemp fan.* Looking beyond those positions, I don't see the Rox moving Tulo (yet), much less the Brewers Braun or the Reds Votto (in division). Maybe Hanley (to 3B or somewhere?).

So if the Cubs want to add major talent, looks like it's FAs for the next couple of years at least.

*if he repeats 2011 or anything close to it, I will become a big Kemp fan. And, even if not, he'd obviously be a good long-term CF (then corner OF) solution so it's not like I'd complain unless we get silly with money.

Steve Clevenger is indeed very, very similar to his #1 comp.

If the Cubs want to use 2012 money to build their future then the posting fee for Yu Darvish might be the way to go.

It seems to me that if there is one area where Theo will take a "once bitten, twice shy" approach it would be with Japanese pitchers and their large pricetags (both for negotiating and signing). Then again, perhaps there are many factors that make Yu a better bet than DiceK, which I am not aware of.