Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Page 1 of 2 pages
Five major league teams made formal offers to Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, per Nikkan Sports. The report says the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and White Sox all made offers of over $100 million for six years.
Lack of vitamin D is the new market inefficiency.
I still have a sneaking suspicion that the Ricketts have money problems.
Anyone else think Theo should be getting some heat?
Going into his third season, and what's in place for the next Cub contender?
Castro (big question mark), Rizzo (question mark) and Travis Wood (question mark)?
It's very possible that there are no above average position players or starters on the current MLB roster, that will be on the next good team. You can't expect a farm system (even a highly rated one) to generate that much talent in the next 2-3 years, and the Free Agent market is getting more and more sparse and expensive.
How is a large market team with large revenue streams purposefully tanking 3 to 5 seasons, at least, the right way to build a good franchise?
The Cubs had a chance to compete for a playoff spot in 2012 and be respectable in 2013 and beyond while developing their farm system. They chose not to do it. They gained virtually nothing by tanking the last two years and probably the next 2 to 3 years as well. Losing didn't give them their 2012 picks nor any of the international free agents.
the idea that the Cubs are content with thinking Ryan Sweeney is gonna get 4-500 PAs in the OF next year is absolutely ridiculous
In otherwords the Cubs tanked to pick up one or two extra (really just one) lottery tickets that are unlikely to payoff and let 6 WAR walk out the door for those lottery tickets.
The 43rd pick in the draft has historically produced bupkis at the MLB level.
The Rays have drafted better than the Yankees because they sucked for so long that they got numerous 1 picks and numerous top 5 picks. Except for Carl Crawford almost 15 years ago there 2nd through 8th round picks have either never produced or have largely been organizational filler.
This is the laziest type of analysis. Whatever the specific 43rd pick has done historically hasn't produced a sample size large enough to make any reasonable valuation. The draft has been around since 1965, so less than 50 43rd picks total. What have 40-45th picks done in general is a much better proxy for it's value, and we have good reason to believe it's valuable.
Vizcaino looks like an injury bust at this point
Sure, but you can't expect them to be above average regulars from day 1. You're looking at 2016 before either should be expected to make a real impact.
Didn't they say the same thing about Smoak and Hosmer?
- Free agency -- I'm actually OK with staying out of the mix on the big contracts handed out the last couple of offseasons. There really aren't any good examples of "I'd have liked to see us top that offer" -- in virtually every case, I'd have folded below the final price, too. However, it's on the fringes that I really think Thed has failed -- fringe FAs, minor league FAs, etc. I think they should have done a LOT more here. With the top levels of the org so bereft of near-term help, this is where I'd have expected a frenetic smorgasbord of signings... and we really haven't seen that. I'd give them no better than a C here, and that's mainly because they haven't hamstrung the team with any bad contracts.
While I share your concern with the team at the major league level, the performance seems to indicate that Thed are really good at finding fringe value. Most of these players cost nothing, or were on relatively cheap one/two year FA deals. Judging from the production they got out of these guys--mostly fourth outfielders and utility infielders--the bigger issue is the lack of production from any all star level (Meaning 3 WAR or above) position players and a bullpen made out old rags soaked in kerosene. Finding a 3 WAR+ starter in FA usually requires the kind of crazy money that you stated you would pass on too.
The problem isn't so much on the margins of the roster (that's a "good team" problem mostly) but finding a three our four position players you can hang your hat on for a combined 10 or so WAR every year. That's easier said than done.
I don't think you pass on a Cano because you have some guys down on the farm. If those guys develop into hitters you either find a spot for them or you trade them off to fill others at other spots. It is never a bad thing to amass many good players nor is it wise to pass up some guaranteed greatness*.
There's a much higher chance that none of those 4 is a productive MLB regular in 2015-16 than that all 4 of them are. And there's already talk of Bryant moving to the OF. As McCoy says, you don't avoid elite talent because of prospects.
The Angels have a larger payroll than the Cubs and had/have more "bad contracts" than the Cubs and yet they have won a boatload more games than the Cubs over the last two years and have done so in a tougher division than the Cubs.
And that's kind of the point. Bryant is a unique prospect at this point because it's extremely rare for somebody to be I. The position he's in right now 6 months after being drafted.
I guess I would say, so far as a Thed report card:
I don't think you can pencil in any player, no matter how much he tore up A ball, no matter how great he was in college or what his tools are -- as a contributor on the MLB team before seeing how they adjust to AA and even AAA. The jump from the low minors to the high minors is as big of a jump as from the high minors to MLB.
My point would be that 146 PA in low A/rookie ball does not a special hitter make.
That's not an exception that proves the rule! Kidding aside, it's possible that Bryant is legit and can start next year or in 2015. My point is that I don't think you should bet the farm on it and I also don't think the Cubs will let him start the season on the major league roster in 2015.
Of course, that's still higher than you'd like to see, but nowhere near as alarming.
Brian Dopirak :/ Although he was at A ball all season while Javy hit his over Hi-A and AA. Dopirak fell apart once he hit Hi-A.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
Login to Join (9 members)
Page rendered in 1.3649 seconds, 58 querie(s) executed