Thursday, May 23, 2013
FanGraphs: Cameron: The 2013 Cubs: Better Than We Think
(www.fangraphs.com)
Light at the end of the ridiculously low-ceilinged tunnel.
Read More...The Cubs have actually played pretty good baseball when sequencing is not considered. By wOBA differential, they’ve been a well above average team. Their record is almost entirely a reflection of the power of the timing of various events.
In our Win Probability section, we track a stat called “Clutch”, which basically looks at the wins a team has gained or lost due to the leverage of the game when their positive or negative ...
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1 2 >Well played.
Poison Reds' clubhouse meals
Lock Cardinals in attic
Mess with Pirates' team bus GPS, strand Bucs somewhere in Alleghenies
Confuse Brewers with logical-paradox conundrums till smoke comes out of their ears
Relegate selves to AA
Really?
I really don't appreciate taking this tone toward an author who has 4 sapphire medals, 22 platinum medals, 38 gold medals, 118 silver medals, and 126 bronze medals to his name.
2008 Nationals: 59-102
2009 Nationals: 59-103
2010 Nationals: 69-93
2011 Nationals: 80-81
2012 Nationals: 98-64
2008 Cubs: 97-64
2009 Cubs: 83-78
2010 Cubs: 75-87
2011 Cubs: 71-91
2012 Cubs: 61-101
Based on this mirror-image here, I'm going to say the 2013 Cubs are a lot more likely to resemble the 2008 Nationals as opposed to the 2012 Nationals.
Still, you want to wishcast, here's the wishcast for 2013 Cubs contention:
1) Starlin Castro takes a mammoth step forward, becoming Elvis Andrus defensively and refines his offensive game into Derek Jeter, while Anthony Rizzo outhits Prince Fielder - without Fielder taking any steps backwards, while Brett Jackson becomes the 'good' Curtis Granderson (or Austin Jackson)
2) Curiosity finds human life on Mars - and it turns out that they pitch really, really well. Cubs attorneys find that Mars foreign FA's are not covered by the new CBA, and the Cubs sign two of them who pitch like Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson
3) A massive scheduling mistake that is discovered too late to be corrected has the Cubs playing the Astros 60 times in 2013
4) The Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds decide to leave the NL Central and accept the ACC's offer to join that conference instead
5) Chris Volstad, Chris Rusin, Travis Wood, and Casey Coleman are all harvested in a diabolical Frankensteinian experiment to create one, single super pitcher -- who actually ends up being able to throw 200 league average innings.
Ugh.
I presume that means stupid slideshow. God, I friggin hate those... DIE FLASH DIE! DIE DIE DIE
Here are mine...
1) Find a new 3B lottery ticket - Ian Stewart was a decent gamble, but he obviously ain't the answer. Neither is Luis Valbuena... cast about for another 20something 3B whose shine is all but gone and roll the dice again.
2) Get in the Greinke bidding - he's young enough to still be effective if the 'plan' actually comes together and we're desperate for SPs.
3) Find at least one more Paul Maholm-type rental at a good one year-price tag
4) Make a decision on Garza - either sign him (would 5 years/75 do it?) or deal him... that might be difficult since he didn't pitch in the 2nd half, though
5) Start hoarding live but erratic arms for the bullpen... Use the Rule 5, 6 year minor league FA's, and boring junk-for-junk trades to stockpile arms that haven't been able to do much professionally but throw in the mid-90s. Hope one of them+ can actually turn into a legitimate bullpen option
I thought you were making this up at first. Oh boy.
1. Sign James Shields as a free agent. The Cubs could use a good starter like him and he'll likely be cheap since the other 29 teams aren't likely to try to sign him as a free agent.
2. Sign Youkilis and Napoli. 33 year old free agents and 30 year old catchers have a good history of panning out.
3. Get Rizzo to do more. As long as you tell him he needs to do more, he probably will. Right?
4. Have a near winning record in April. MLB history is filled with teams that went 11-13 in April and were able to ride that momentum the rest of the season to a pennant. The last five months go on autopilot when you are off to such a hot start.
5. Get Soriano to repeat his season. I don't really understand this point. The Cubs weren't too hot this season so why wouldn't you ask Soriano to do more like you are of Rizzo. If you only ask Soriano to repeat, he won't be any better next season.
What do you have in mind? Ordering a shutdown of a pitcher?
Obviously, the Cubs aren't looking to contend in 2013; they made that bed, and now they're laying in it. But here's broadly what the Cubs need - how they go about getting these things and how soon, eh, I don't know:
1) 3B
2) corner outfielder
3) at least two above-average starting pitchers
4) probably at least 3-4 quality bullpen arms
There's plenty of further things they could/should do at #5, but we're already talking more than one offseason worth of work, so I'm not sure what the point is of trying to nail down one final item for the list.
I don't know where 1) comes from; no thanks on Youkilis. Pray that Vitters turns some kind of corner is probably as good an option for this offseason as anything here.
In theory, 2) is the sort of thing that a big-money team like the Cubs should be able to buy on the free-agent market when the time comes, but the free-agent market seems to be getting thinner lately, and I'm not sure the time has come for this. I'm not saying ignore free agency entirely, but if you're looking at 2015, not 2013, that changes who you should go after this offseason. If the Cubs were a realistic playoff contender in '13-'14, maybe Josh Hamilton makes sense, although day games in the middle of a huge bar scene sounds like a bit too much temptation for a recovering addict.
I actually do like the idea of pursuing Greinke and/or Shields. Maybe bringing back Dempster, although he's getting old, but the more innings they can take away from Chris Volstad and Casey Coleman, the better for everybody.
Bullpen arms are pretty much a crapshoot. This is where, in theory, Epstein building a deeper farm system should pay off, but probably not in 2013.
The Washington Nationals aren't a bad blueprint to try to follow. But the 2012 Cubs weren't the 2011 Nationals; they were the 2008 or 2009 Nationals.
They won't have their schedule change from 14-16 division games each against five teams (including Houston) to 19 games vs. four teams (not including Houston).
The Cubs have no Strasburg or Zimmermann in their rotation (Jordan Z., as you likely know, was drafted with a pick the Cubs surrendered in the Alfonso Soriano deal).
Even if the Cubs improved by 18 games next season, they'll finish on the wrong side of .500.
1A. Sign Greinke: +4.5 wins (0 to 4.5)
1B. Sign Jackson or Lohse or Shields: + 3.5 wins (0 to 3.5)
2A. Sign Youkilis: +5 wins (-1 to +4)
2B. Sign Napoli or Martin: +4.2 wins (-1.2 to 3)
3. Rizzo improves: +1.8 wins (2.2 to 4)
That adds 19 wins, getting you to 84-80. At that point you can hope for random variance, unexpected positive performances, good luck, and bad play by other teams. The point is that with this plan the Cubs pretty much need to sign everyone and have them all perform better than they probably will, and then get lucky on top of it. I mean, if I'm the Cubs I go for it, because it's only money and it's not like there are lots of youngsters to block. But it ain't happening.
Can't you just tell from the headline? "X things your team needs to do to next season" or "Why X will win Y next year" is pretty much guaranteed to be a BR article.
Dan Uggla - 13m/13m/13m (through 2015)
Alfonso Soriano - 18m/18m (through 2014)
Uggla could play 3B I'm sure.
Greinke's no longer an ace but he's still a pretty good option as a #3 starter if you can get him at the right price. The problem is that someone else will probably offer him ace money.
a: it's more fun to snark
b: the article didn't compare the Cubs' chances to the Orioles or the Athletics; it claimed that the Cubs could be the new Nationals which shows a complete ignorance of the Nationals' reliance on mostly homegrown stars and their slow climb to success- and apparently a mindblock regarding the existence of any teams in the other league.
c: basically, they suggest following the Nationals offseason plans in 2010-11 (sign Jayson Werth to prove we're serious!) and the Marlins offseason plans of 2011-12 (sign Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes and Heath Bell and become instant contenders!)
I don't know how the Cubs pitchers did this year as far as going deep into the games, but on point 1a and 1b, does those projected wins also account for improved bullpen performance? A better pitching staff should project to better bullpen performance, even if you don't change one player in the pen.
I won't argue either of those points.
The article overvalues Greinke and overestimates the Cubs.
Something like 3 years, 20 million?
What would be a good option to have as a #3 starter? Matt Cain?
Snark aside ... I realize the term "ace" means different things to different people, but Zack Greinke would be the #1 pitcher for a number of teams. If not the #1 pitcher, he'd be #2 for most of the rest. Does that make him an ace? Maybe not. But to suggest he would be a "pretty good" #3 as long as it was for the "right price" is rather silly.
Brandon Wood is available.
I would find it entertaining if the folks who last year freaked out about signing Pujols or Fielder to a long-term contract (ack! it's their 30s! ack! they're expensive! ack! we're not ready to contend) supported the notion of signing Greinke to a long-term contract.
Pop quiz! Rank these starters in order of ERA+ 2010-2012:
Greinke
Dempster
Garza
E Jackson
Shields
Lincecum
Saunders
Guthrie
Anyway, I am fine if the Cubs want to start building back to decency by signing a few FAs. It seems kind of silly to have suffered through 2012 to only now do what would have been better done last offseason but that's OK. And when I look around ... there's almost nobody out there I want on anything longer than a 2-3 year contract except maybe BJ Upton. OK, I'd be OK with Hamilton but probably not at the price he's gonna get. Of course b-4 is not that fond of Upton's defense so I'd have to do some thinking about that ... and of course this essentially assumes that Jackson is never going to learn how to make contact.
The moves I'd try to make:
1. Sign Youkilis (2 years plus option) ... he's not blocking anybody and, if he hits, he's tradeable and if he doesn't hit he's cuttable. But a top of the lineup of DeJesus and Youk might actually put people on base in front of Rizzo. Also I assume the past Theo-Youk history is positive so this is a signing we have a decent chance at. (I'll consider a 3rd guaranteed year for him if I have to. Note, I'm not thrilled about Youk at 3B, not sure he'll age well there, but it's only money and the Cubs have tons of it.)
2. Sign some starters. I'm not even sure I care that they are all that good as long as they are durable and don't suck. I'd like Travis Wood to be no better than our intended 4th starter next year but as long as we have 5 guys who are a good bet to give us 180 innings and an ERA+ above 85, I won't have to relive the horror of Volstad very often. I know, 1-2 of those 5 guys will break down and not give us what I want but at least we can start there. Where's Jon Garland these days? :-) I'd probably start with Dempster and try for Shields and figure out who the groundballers are.
3. Sheesh that bullpen was a mess. What that guy said above -- y'know, preferably guys who can strike out the opposition more often than Dolis and strike out the opposition more often than they walk them (see Dolis) ... although Dolis went K-happy at the end of the year.
4. What's Mike Fontenot up to? Seems a good bench guy and backup to Barney & Youk. There's probably somebody better than Fontenot out there so insert lefty backup IF of your choice here. Re-sign Reed Johnson or similar (Cody Ross?). Explore Mars.
5. Definitely kick the tires on BJ Upton. Of course call the DBacks about Justin Upton but I can't see the Cubs having anything the DBacks would want. Sure, I'll talk with Hamilton's and Greinke's agents but I don't expect to be players there. Anyway, Jackson's not ready so the Cubs need another starting OF of some variety (DeJ can be in CF at the start of the year at least if need be). That's where Cody Ross could fit in.
Some of you out there will have names to nominate ... we want to find the next Garrett Jones (or LaHair or Nelson Cruz) for a bench/corner OF spot.
Anyway, the #1 goal of the offseason has to be getting some starting pitching -- the rotation right now is a complete embarrassment. #2 goal is 3B, even if it ends up being something as awful as a Hannahan/somebody platoon.* #3 goal is bullpen. Bullpen would be higher on my list if I could be convinced that good/bad bullpens weren't largely the result of randomness -- but we should certainly be able to put a few more impressive pitchers out in the pen.
*Fair enough, I'm not sure Hannahan is better than Valbuena either. Wow, Hannahan will be 33 and is still 2 seasons away from FA.
Have the same problem with Derrek Lee. If you forget the second r you don't get the "real" Derrek Lee.
Have you looked at his numbers? He has a 105 ERA+ over the past 3 seasons. Maybe you get the upside of this year's 114. But more likely, you're looking at the 100 and 103 of '10 and '11.
If you add a "the" in front of your search, it directs you to the most popular choice. Not as helpful if you want the Frank Thomas from the '50s, but useful in the vast majority of cases.
In case anyone is curious, "The George Burns" is the first baseman who had 64 doubles in a season, not the outfielder who led the league in runs five times.
The last three seasons (starting with 2010) have a xFIP of 3.60, 2.56, and 3.22.
There is a case to be made that Greinke is somebody that just can't produce results that match his peripherals. I'd be hesitant to pay Greinke just off the xFIP numbers. Although that wasn't really the case prior to 2010.
But even if he is just a 105 ERA+ pitcher, that's a very good #3 pitcher for most teams.
Seriously? That's his upside? Not the 205 of 2009? Talk about using selective endpoints.
I might be overrating Greinke. But I think you are tremendously discounting how he would help a rotation.
Bob Brenly. Alas, that ship's sailed...
So we are in agreement, no? I'm not sure what you are saying that I am not.
Cubs starters threw something like 20 fewer innings than average, so the new signees would help. But the Cubs 2012 IP totals include Garza, Dempster, and Maholm, who were average or better in IP/start and won't be on the 2013 team. But yeah, we could add a win or so for decreased stress on the pen. That said, my win totals were wishcasting, so the bullpen help is pretty much already included.
As of right now, Matt Garza is under contract to the Cubs for 2013. I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone by Opening Day and would actually be surprised if he's still a Cub on Sept 1st, but if the point of the exercise is to build a playoff-contending Cubs team for 2013, certainly Garza would be a member of such a fantasy team.
Heck of a lot easier than what I've been doing for ages... which is slowly memorizing the full given names of various players.
Mickey Charles Mantle, indeed.
I'd like it if Mantle was "the Gordon."
That would be fine with me precisely... heck, what's Andy Marte up to nowadays?
The fact that his name comes up when doing a search for "the man" is just wrong.
The Cubs suck. They're a 100 loss team, and they need far too many parts to fix in one or two off-seasons, no matter how much money they have.
If I were Theo, I'd look at the roster and say "Who's likely to contribute to a championship-caliber team in '15?" and trade everyone else of any value. I'd kick the tires on Greinke simply because of his age; if I could sign him for 4 or 5 years at $12-15M per, fine (he isn't the ace of a playoff staff, but he certainly could be a major part of one). I'd make a run at B.J. Upton (again, because of his age).
It's easy to say "Sign this guy, sign that guy - they have tons of cash!" when it's not your money, but that's not a good plan. I think the Tigers have been brilliant - they either drafted or traded for every significant hitter/SP on the team except Fielder (and Martinez, who didn't play this year (but they wouldn't have signed Fielder if Martinez were healthy)) and a couple of relievers.***
***Of course I say this, and I've heard Josh Hamilton would LOVE to play in Detroit.
Alex Gordon. Current players tend to beat out Hall of Famers.
The fact that his name comes up when doing a search for "the man" is just wrong.
Very.
Another "the" tidbit - the Brian Hunter is the fast one, not the slow one. The Bobby Jones is the right-hander, not the lefty. Any other names shared between players of similar quality?
I'd agree with most of that but I think there's still room to sign stopgap players. You don't always have a young player or prospect who's ready for the majors and it might be detrimental to his development to throw him onto the major league squad. In that case, it may be useful to sign a veteran for a year or two to fill out the roster even if they won't contribute to that possible pennant team in 2015.
Who's "the" Alex Gonzalez?
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