Saturday, May 18, 2013
BtBS: Kevin Gregg Re-emerges in Chicago
(www.beyondtheboxscore.com)
Read More...[A]s of May 16, Kevin Gregg has thrown ten innings without allowing an earned run. Over those 10 frames, he has faced 39 batters surrendering just five hits and four walks and striking out 12 batters. Because it’s just 10 innings, I’m probably making too big a deal out of his success, but remember this is the same pitcher that:
*Was released by the Dodgers during Spring Training. The Dodgers’ pen ranks 25th in the Majors in ERA.
*Registered a 4.62 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 4.83 xFIP over the last ...
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1 2 >[coke to dan, I had to sign in!]
I don't know. Leyland really likes having a lefty in the rotation, and Porcello looked real good last year coming out of the pen in the playoffs. If Porcello stays in Detroit, I could see Smyly in the rotation and Porcello in the pen.
Haren? He signed with the Nats right?
I am/would have been/will be/whatever sort of torn on this.
On one hand, the Cubs are desperate for pitching -- they're so bereft with little to nothing on the horizon that they all but have to overpay for quality mid-rotation arms, even if there's no reasonable hope of competing till 2014 or even 2015. There's just literally NOTHING in the minors beyond a few yaneverknows (Struck maybe?) that I'd expect to see in the rotation in a few years. Since getting over some injury issues in his early 20s (which could have been a blessing in disguise), he's now put up three straight seasons of 190 IP of 109 ERA+ ball. He's basically Garza 2A (or Garza is Sanibal 2A). That's plenty valuable.
On the other - 15 mil for a shaky #2/solid #3 seems pricey... Figure keeping Garza would cost about the same -- yes, the Cubs can afford it -- but you ARE tying up 30 million for the middle of a rotation, still needing an ace.
But whatever -- I guess aces don't just fall out of the sky and if they were easy to get, everyone would have one...
If Sanchez came back and said that the Tigers were going 5/90 or 6/100 or something -- I don't think I'd match.... You do have to think that if they don't get Sanchez, then Garza probably gets the 5/75 (assuming he's healthy).
Y'know, like how Josh Hamilton was destined to remain a Texas Ranger until this afternoon.
True, for the grand total of four batters he faced in garbage time. Smyly was nails in 4 games and won the comeback game in NY after Valverde's meltdown. Porcello has been in the rotation several years; Smyly for part of a season. Smyly will be the 2nd lefty in the pen.
Sorry, must have been a Haren to Cubs rumor that I missed a few weeks ago. That makes sense then.
15 mil for a shaky #2/solid #3 seems pricey
If Sanchez is a shaky #2 then there's no such thing as a solid #2.
For 2010-12 he is:
#23 in bWAR
#36 in IP
#39 in ERA+ (min 300 IP)
#28 in K/9
#39 in K/BB
OK, closer than I thought. Depends I suppose on where you draw your "ace" line. If you draw it at RA Dickey (ERA+ of 129 last 3 years) then there are only 13 aces and Sanchez (say the #30-35 pitcher overall) is in the bottom half of the "#2s". If you draw it at Kuroda (ERA+ of 120, #23 2010-12) and Sanchez looks to be in the top half of #2s. And of course if you draw it at the #30 pitcher (Colby Lewis to Chris Carpenter) then Sanchez is a top #2.
Dickey actually seems a reasonable cutoff for an "ace". Just below him are young guys and/or very good pitchers we generally don't consider aces: Chacin, Matt Harrison, CJ Wilson, Hellickson. Then a couple of guys you might consider aces in Cain and Wainwright (when healthy) but then followed by Hudson, Zimmermann and Kuroda at an ERA+ of 120 (the #23 pitcher by ERA+). A small gap then Fister, Latos, Kennedy, Vogelsong and we're pretty clearly in "non-ace" territory.
On the other hand, Sanchez is not far behind Greinke or Shields (if at all) and those guys cost a ton in money/talent. And the number of guys with 300+ IP and a 96 or better ERA+ 2010-12 is only 77 so Sanchez's performance is still pretty rare and will save you a lot of grief compared to the dreck you'll trot out there without him.
2010-2012 are also his only 3 full healthy years.
WAR:
Kyle Lohse, 23rd
Anibal Sanchez, 24th
IP:
Lohse, 28th
Sanchez, 35th
ERA+:
Lohse, 18th
Sanchez, 38th
K/9:
Lohse, 69th
Sanchez, 17th
BB/9:
Lohse, 6th
Sanchez, 40th
H/9:
Lohse, 27th
Sanchez, 52nd
WHIP:
Lohse, 11th
Sanchez, 44th
HR/9
Lohse, 22nd
Sanchez, 37th
If Sanchez is worth 5/$75M, what is Lohse worth????
The biggest "stat" there:
Lohse = 34 years old
Sanchez = 28 years old
More like 29 and 34 (Lohse just turned 34, Sanchez turns 29 in February), but it's not like we're talking second basemen here.
Both have had good seasons recently after missing time to injury (Lohse in 2009-2010, Sanchez in 2007-2009), but besides the great K/9 he had one year (in 2011), I just don't get the love for Sanchez. He's never thrown 200 innings, he's never had a WHIP below 1.25 because he gives up 9 hits per 9 ip, and yet he's supposedly one of the top 30-35 pitchers? I don't think so.
That WAR list misses young guys (Kimbrel, Strasburg et al) and discounts guys who've missed any time to injury in the past three years but who we'd all agree are superior to Sanchez, pushing him to more like 40-50.
I'll bet Lohse puts up more WAR than Sanchez from 2013-2015.
11
4 aces in a pack of 52 = 1/13
30 teams, 5 starting jobs = 150
150/13 ~ 11.5
I guess you could give the half to Strasburg if you are feeling generous.
Yeah ... and there are only 35 pitchers with more (MLB) IP over that time period. Do you want the guy who's been healthy for 3 years and injured before that or the guy who was healthy before that but injured in the last 3 years? 3 straight healthy years is HIGH durability -- that could end with his next pitch ... just like Strasburg. If you're looking for less "shaky" than that, you're on a pretty pointless quest.
That WAR list misses young guys (Kimbrel, Strasburg et al) and discounts guys who've missed any time to injury in the past three years but who we'd all agree are superior to Sanchez, pushing him to more like 40-50.
Kimbrel's a reliever. The IP limit on that was only 300 ... sure, it barely misses Strasburg but it picks up anybody who's been starting for more than 1.5 seasons out of the last 3. Low IP pitchers won't do well by WAR but they'll do just fine in ERA+, K/9 and K/BB which is why I provided an array of statistics.
When you combine durability and quality, he's top 25 in WAR the last 3 years. If you go strictly by quality he's in the 35-40 range. If you go somewhere between those two, you get 30-35.
IP 2010-12: 36th
IP 2011-12: 35th
IP 2012: 36th
WAR 2010-12: 23rd
WAR 2011-12: 25th
WAR 2012: 42nd
As to Sanchez vs Lohse -- one never knows (it's like Guthrie vs. Greinke) but Sanchez is 5 years younger, strikes out nearly 3 more guys per 9, has the slightly better K/BB and has pitched 90 more IP the last 3 years and more IP in 2 of the 3 seasons. Lohse has essentially no hope of being better, Sanchez has a good bit of upside while outperforming him in the short term.
And given Haren got $13, Dempster got $13, Lohse will probably get around $13, then $15 for Sanchez is hardly out of line as the (a) youngest guy; (b) guy who hasn't been hurt in the last 3 years; (c) the guy who hasn't had a season in the last 3 (4 actually) in which he's pitched like crap.
As to WHIP -- leaving aside the fact it doesn't tell you anything particularly useful that's not already captured by K/BB and HR rate -- 1.3 is just fine. Sanchez's WHIP is within .006 (1.2 runners per year!) of Wandy, Scherzer, Buehrle, Gallardo, Floyd ... Sanchez ... Danks, Guthrie ... and even a bit more better than Lincecum, Matt Harrison, Dempster, Jaime Garcia, Niese, Billingsley, Romero, Jackson.
Obviously Sanchez could fall apart at any time. And it is indeed unfortunate that Justin Verlander isn't an FA this year and willing to sign with the Cubs for 5/$75 but I'm really unclear what you guys expect in an FA pitcher that's gonna cost $15 per year. It's less than Burnett got 4 years ago; it's less (AAV) than Beckett got in 2011; it's 60% of what Greinke just got, 2/3 (and 2 years less) of what Hamels got and 75% of what Cain got -- it ain't big time pitcher money.
Marcum?
Jeff Karstens is pretty good, but only for about 20 starts a year.
I think Drew Smyly is a much better bet than Porcello (surprise!) Smyly is younger and strikes out more guys, which is particularly important given the Tigers infield defence. Rick's never going to miss enough bats to me more than a mid-rotation guy, though he is young enough that he could develop, I guess.
If Detroit keeps Anibal (and at that price I think it's pretty worth it) then I'd really like to see them shop Rick for a righty bat or, preferably, a SS.
The Cubs are apparently looking to add a starter and they have a righty bat who is available.
A note for Cubs fans on the near misses with Haren and Sanchez, if it hasn't become clear already: this is classic Theo. He's not just happy to walk away when he doesn't get the price he wants, he seems to legitimately revel in it. It's mildly perverse. I'm surprised there haven't been more rumors of unsuccessful eight-team, twenty-seven player trades, though perhaps that's just because the Cubs front office isn't leaking like a Lucchino ship.
The Cubs are apparently looking to add a starter and they have a righty bat who is available.
I'd think this might actually happen except there's no way they could even afford to add Fonzie's money. And I'd hope DD could get more for Rick.
Oh, god, really?. I'll take that bet. $10-15 BB-Ref sponsorship?
That sounds about right.
I understand that using terms like 'ace' or 'stopper' is somewhat meaningless -- but I think you really have to stretch any of those terms to include Sanchez. 'Potential CY candidate' is equally meaningless -- but Sanchez really isn't that either.
I DO agree that Greinke is not worth 1/3 more than Sanchez -- but, it should be noted that Greinke has had 4 seasons better than Sanchez' best -- including a monster 2009 (which, sure, he almost certainly never comes close to replicating).
To me - that's an ace... someone who's downside is Anibal Sanchez, but might put up one of those monster seasons.
All that said - it should be noted that I was not/am not opposed to 5/75 (I suppose I might even go 5/80) for him. Like I said - the Cubs are so pitching thin and have nothing of real promise in the pipeline, so waiting on a Verlander to emerge (whether via trade, FA, or the minors) is probably a long wait on a train don't come. Given his age and the fact that he seems to have settled into a mode of good health - might as well settle the #2/#3 slot for the foreseeable future.
Anibal Sanchez is just simply not the sort of guy you make an effort to set up to start game 1 of a playoff series or figure you might start on short rest to get him on the mound for 3 games in a 7 game series. That's an ace.
Tigers get Sanchez for 5/80, apparently.
This is Nightengale reporting, so I'll withhold my excitement until I hear someone a little more credible reporting it.
Guess I'll believe the agent. Woo-Hoo!
They're not paying him like that sort of guy. He's getting John Lackey money.
Exactly. This is the new going rate for pitchers of Anibal's caliber, like it or not.
And the Mets can't give R.A. Dickey 2/26.
Jesus ####### wept.
This makes a hell of a lot more sense than him signing with the Cubs (for both him and the Cubs).
It's not even new. A.J. Burnett got this deal back before the '09 season.
IP by year: 86, 195, 196, 195
Shields:
2009-2012: 132 starts, 3.85 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9.
IP by year: 219, 203, 249, 227
I would rather have Shields than Sanchez. I think most people would agree.
But I would also rather have Sanchez, Castellanos, and Garcia than Shields minus Myers and Odorizzi.
Actually, this non-signing makes the 3rd major leak in the past 4+ months. First, the Dempster non-trade to the Braves. Then the previously mentioned Haren un-trade. And now this. The Cubs most definitely have a leak problem. I was hesitant to blame the Dempster one on the Cubs, but after these last two, it seems pretty obvious to me. Whether or not this is a negative, I don't know.
It's certainly irritating from a fan's perspective (from the perspective of this fan, at least). I suppose if it's a "positive," it's because it's part of some game of 11-dimensional chess we outsiders aren't privy to, but it's hard to give credit for what hasn't happened yet (and might not happen).
Anyway, nice to see the Cubs make a legitimate run at a good free agent (I thought from the start of this offseason Sanchez was the guy they should go after), but they really have to add Jackson or somebody now just to make the next couple years watchable, barring a big step forward from, say, Travis Wood.
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