If he ends his career in Japan and doesn't come back to MLB, does his time there count towards his HoF eligibility?

If that's as far away from Yankee Stadium as it's possible to get, then hooray.

Andruw knows that conditioning is a big deal in Japan, right?

Andruw, I've got your picture...

First the yankees get a player taken by Pittsburgh. Hell, I've heard of Pittsburgh. They have a hockey team, right? But . . Rakuten?!

Rakuten is based out of Sendai, although they played a lot of their games last season in Kobe because of the Earthquake/Tsunami.

Andruw knows that conditioning is a big deal in Japan, right?

Heh. The poor guy won't know what hits him.

If he ends his career in Japan and doesn't come back to MLB, does his time there count towards his HoF eligibility?

Ask Ray.

Andruw smartly waited to make this move until Japan failed in its bid to ease whaling restrictions.

surely you didn’t expect him to oppose ham?

He fought the ham and the ham lost. Repeatedly.

Geez, yesterday's 7.3 earthquake was epicentered just off the coast of Sendai - foreign culture, language barrier, earthquakes, radiation.
At least they got burgers and pizza in Japan...

If nothing else, he'll have one of the biggest names asses ever to cross the Pacific and play in NPB.

This thread is making me so glad BBTF didn't exist when Cecil Fielder went to Japan.

Reggie Smith was a pretty big name too. It would be funny if Andruw came back to the US in 2 years all fit and flexible.

I can think of two US Hall of Famers who played in Japan, Goose Gossage and Larry Doby.

Andruw Jones will be retiring right about the point where defensive statistics will probably be gaining modest traction in the HoF electorate. And if his defensive numbers hold up, he's going to have an interesting candidacy. I think he'll stick around on the ballot for a long time, and his vote total will improve over time, but I doubt he'll make it in.

I think Andruw will make it in the HoF ... although the cluster**** ballot might mess with that. You don't need fancy stats of course, he won 10 straight GG. That nearly makes him the Ozzie/Brooks/Maz of CF. There are obvious drawbacks -- Mays with 12, Griffey with 10 and Andruw having become something of a joke at the end -- but I think he'd make it.

Now, if Andruw never plays in the US again, does the Japan time count with regard to his 5-year wait? What about minor-league time?

Hell, I've heard of Pittsburgh. They have a hockey team, right?

Not this year.

Report: Andruw Jones headed to Japan


The headline makes is sound like a Godzilla invasion. I can almost hear the excited Japanese newscaster.

and Andruw having become something of a joke at the end

That, I think, has traditionally been a HUGE factor in people not getting into the HOF.

Most players don't finish particularly strong, but if they have their "moment" where they reach a milestone or something, they get to go out on a good note. Guys who don't do that struggle.

People were calling Ryne Sandberg the best 2B of all time at points in his career. Although that was a pretty big overstatement, it was weird for him to have to wait as long as he did to get elected. But his retirement, un-retirement, and general fizzling out took the shine off of his career.

Gary Carter was the same way. He was a superstar, considered one of the best catchers ever as well. But he finished his career bouncing around as a backup. He took much longer than you'd expect, too.

But neither of those guys hit milestones or finished well.

That, I think, is the biggest thing that hurts the "feel" of Tim Raines for voters. He hit the ballot about the same time Jim Rice got elected on the 15th try. But Raines' last All-Star season was just one year after Rice's last All-Star season. He hit the ballot at the same time as stars from the 90s when he was a star of the early-to-mid-80s. He was solid (better than perceived, probably) from 1988 to 1998 or so, but was never a "star" again. All of the shine was off his career by the time he finally stopped bouncing around as a bench player around 2001, except in the eyes of those who appreciated him most.

And Andruw Jones was never the star Raines was. Their career MVP shares are about the same, but Jones' mostly tied up in his 2nd-place finish in 2005. Raines was in more All-Star Games and started 2. Jones never started an All-Star Game. Jones was a low-average guy who wasn't a huge OBP guy, either. He went through long stretches, even when he was good, where it seemed any breaking ball would get him out. He had lots of really bad postseason performances in the middle of his career. He was generally the second-best "Jones" on his team.

So, relative to Raines, I don't think he had as much "shine" to begin with. Add in the embarrassing and abrupt crash in his career, I think he will start out really low in his vote totals (under 20%) and will need a lot of advocacy to get people to really consider him.

I think Andruw will make it in the HoF ... although the cluster**** ballot might mess with that. You don't need fancy stats of course, he won 10 straight GG. That nearly makes him the Ozzie/Brooks/Maz of CF. There are obvious drawbacks -- Mays with 12, Griffey with 10 and Andruw having become something of a joke at the end -- but I think he'd make it.

Not a chance. Ozzie and Brooks were infielders who not only seemed to define their positions, but their positions were much easier to appreciate than those of a centerfielder whose primary skill was to make hard plays look easy. That's not a knock on that skill, only a notation that it doesn't lend itself to repeated highlight reels.

Then, lets's face it, there's no narrative for Jones as there was for Ozzie and Brooks. His team flopped in the only two World Series he ever played in, and hitting two home runs in a 12 to 1 game as a 19 year old isn't anything more than statistical footnote.

He's also got the nonchalant rep that contrasts 180 degrees with the enthusiasm that Ozzie and Brooks showed on the field. Those two were idolized for reasons that went beyond their stats. Jones has nothing much going for him beyond fielding numbers that few people appreciate, and a good but nowhere near HOF-level set of offensive numbers. The only chance he's got would be if somehow the VC got dominated by sabermetricians in a hypothetical future era where advanced defensive metrics ruled the day. Other than that, he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hell.

Yes, there's Maz, but (a) Maz was a middle infielder with a king-sized rep as "the best defensive second baseman ever"; (b) Maz had a signature moment second only to Bobby Thomson, whereas Jones has none; (c) Maz had a large and vocal fan base who lobbied for him tirelessly; and (d) It still took him 34 years to get in. Jones has no visible fan base, and little hope of obtaining any. Who's going to be lobbying for him 20 or 25 years from now, when he's getting ready to drop off the ballot? How can anyone possibly imagine that 75% of the writers would ever vote for him?

I'll let others try to construct a Hall of Merit argument for Jones, but they're wasting their time talking about Jones and the Hall of Fame.

Maz had a signature moment second only to Bobby Thomson, whereas Jones has none

Andruw did have two homers in his first World Series game, in Yankee Stadium, at age 19. That's something.

Now, if Andruw never plays in the US again, does the Japan time count with regard to his 5-year wait? What about minor-league time?

Both Reggie Smith and Larry Parrish finished their careers in Japan, though their Hall of Fame vote took place six years (the natural waiting period) after their last MLB game. (Jesse Barfield was the most recent guy to finish up in Japan after a lengthy career in the states, though strangely he did not apppear on a Hall of Fame ballot).

I suspect the BBWAA would continue to operate this way, except in the unlikely case a guy is still active in Japan when his time comes up on the ballot. In that case, they may wait until he's officially retired.

Minor league time does not count, as Rickey had a few stints with Indy League teams after his last big league game that didn't count toward his ballot eligibility.

Oh, and while there's no way of testing this, if he does end his career there I think this move will be a disservice to Andruws' Hall of Fame chances.

Maz had a signature moment second only to Bobby Thomson, whereas Jones has none

Andruw did have two homers in his first World Series game, in Yankee Stadium, at age 19. That's something.

Yeah, it's an interesting statistical curiosity that maybe would have gotten him Furman Bisher's vote. It's not even on the same planet with Maz or Morris or Fisk or Carter or about 500 to 1000 other World Series moments that rank above it in significance, including those of another SABR favorite who hit two home runs in his first two World Series at bats in a one run game.

Andruw need to get in line behind Kenny Lofton. No way he deserves (or will get elected) with Kenny barely getting noticed.

I also think you have to discount Jones defensive value pretty seriously. I just flat out don't believe a stat that has him a full win per season better than Willie Mays on defense during their 10 year peaks. Personally, I knock about 8-10 WAR off Jones' total.

After they get a load of that load, the name for lazy American imports will be "Andruw" instead of "Pepitone".

I'll let others try to construct a Hall of Merit argument for Jones, but they're wasting their time talking about Jones and the Hall of Fame.

All good points. I will pile on with the misperception of "Just another Latin player* who roided up and fell off a cliff"

*Yes, I know.

Charlie "Red Devil" Manuel, who once (along with Roger Repoz) once had a bar fight with the East German Hockey Team in a Tokyo nightclub, could conceivably one day be in the HoF as a manager if he wins another WS or two. So could Davey Johnson.


And Ichiro, of course, played in Japan, and he'll get in the HoF as a player.

But did he shoot a man, just for snoring?

But did he shoot a man, just for snoring?

It was in Reno, and just to watch him die.

Jones has nothing much going for him beyond fielding numbers that few people appreciate

Wrong, wrong, wrong. He has ten gold gloves. He doesn't need fancy fielding numbers, he has the old school hardware.

I also think you have to discount Jones defensive value pretty seriously. I just flat out don't believe a stat that has him a full win per season better than Willie Mays on defense during their 10 year peaks.

Skepticism is warranted but I heard several announcers, old players, etc. say he was better than Mays in real time and it was widely accepted that he was the best since Mays.

And, really Andy, you don't think Andruw has a long list of highlight reel catches? You were watching a different TBS than I was in the day. I'm happy to go on record saying the young Andruw is easily the best CF I have ever seen. He was widely considered on an HoF track through age 30 and he does finish his career with over 400 HR, 1200 runs and 1200 RBI.

It is certainly true he doesn't have any signature moments. It is true his year with the Dodgers (the only real joke part of his career) might be enough to kill him. And it's certainly true he wouldn't sail right in like Ozzie or Brooks. But the BBWAA does like to honor great defenders at defensive positions. Even Concepcion lasted all 15 years and Bob Boone lasted 5 and Andruw has much better offensive and defensive credentials. Vizquel will likely have at least a Concepcion run. (It's also true that Frank White and Paul Blair were summarily dismissed.) I am surprised he didn't make more AS games. He probably deserved to make 8-10 of them.

With crowded ballots, all bets are off -- even 5 years from now, Andruw's 60 WAR might only be good for something like 20th on the ballot.

Skepticism is warranted but I heard several announcers, old players, etc. say he was better than Mays in real time and it was widely accepted that he was the best since Mays.

I can confirm this as a Mets fan, during Braves/Mets games Jones was regularly averred to be at least the best CF since Mays and possibly as good as Mays.

How about Paul Blair or Devon White? Blair's career overlapped Mays' career somewhat, but he was still playing a lot of center field until about 1974 or so. White had incredible range, as much as anyone I've seen in the past 25 years.

And, really Andy, you don't think Andruw has a long list of highlight reel catches? You were watching a different TBS than I was in the day. I'm happy to go on record saying the young Andruw is easily the best CF I have ever seen. He was widely considered on an HoF track through age 30 and he does finish his career with over 400 HR, 1200 runs and 1200 RBI.

Walt, even granting everything about Andruw's defense, how many outfielders with unremarkable offensive numbers who (a) fell off a cliff at 30, both offensively and defensively, and (b) never recovered afterwards, have ever been elected by the BBWAA on the basis of their defensive skills? The best HoF comp to Jones would probably be Richie Ashburn, with an identical 111 OPS+ and a sterling defensive reputation, who also called it quits at 35. But though Jones had far more home runs, he only led the league a total of 2 times in any offensive category, whereas Ashburn did so 14 times. There's simply no real narrative to Jones's career beyond his defense. The woods are full of players with over 400 home runs and not much of anything else. He once showed signs of promise as a baserunner, but that pretty much went away in his early 20's.

There are admittedly lesser CFers than Jones in the HoF today, but like Ashburn, it took the Veterans' Committee to get them in there. As I said, and as you seem to be tacitly admitting, that's also going to be Jones's only hope at some point in the distant future. And I wouldn't bet a plugged nickel on its ever happening anytime.

Andruw won't get in Walt. Not a chance. But everyone here has made some excellent points. I think 19 hits on something very important that I've always believed as well. People remember the more recent past, and how you finish. Unless you have an overwhelming peak and signature moments to go with them. Andruw has neither of those things, and his decline has been long and thorough.

It's true thru age 29 or 30 he WAS on a HOF track. He ranked 7th all time in HR thru age 29, tied with Aaron at 342, and thru age 30 he still ranked 9th, (ahead of Aaron!). Coupled with his World Class defense, he was definitely on that HOF track. Get to 500 HR and have all those gold gloves and he is a lock. But that age 30 season with a .222 BA was the beginning of the end.

From that point on he has put up 2047 PA's where he hit .214/.314/.420 Over 2000 PA's !!

That is a lot of PA's and a lot of suckage for a long time. His career batting avg, never a strength to begin with, dropped from a Reggie esque .267 all the way to .252.

I just don't see any voters weighting EITHER the Gold Gloves, or his new age fielding numbers heavily enough to overcome that.

There's simply no real narrative to Jones's career beyond his defense. The woods are full of players with over 400 home runs and not much of anything else.

This is a weird thing to say, for Mrs. Lincoln and play reasons. The only major narrative to Jones' career is that he was consensus the best CF since Mays and has a legitimate argument for being the best CF of all time. Aside from that, yeah, you're right, not much narrative.

I wonder if he timed this so he'd go on the HOF ballot with Chipper. It makes a lot of sense. This way he goes onto the ballot with Chipper but he still gets to play a few more years of baseball in Japan since he apparently didn't feel ready to retire.

It could be the money too. I have to think 3.5m beats what any MLB team was offering.

Andruw Jones: former future Hall of Famer, Walt.

Done at age 30, no counting numbers, going on 7 straight years of suckitude, dude.

Nice overpaid contract with LA.

A backup in the media capital of the universe.

I knew SOMEONE here had to take the bait.

Jones is the best CFer I've seen.

I remember watching a game with my dad in the late 90's where a ball bounces a couple times and skips past the CFer. I say "Andruw Jones makes sure that doesn't get by him", my dad looks at me like I'm crazy and says "Andruw Jones catches that on a fly".

I knew SOMEONE here had to take the bait.

Are you saying he's not a worthy Hall of Famer because shallow and ignorant people will deem him not to be one? All the things you cited are reasons why he won't go in, not reasons why he shouldn't go in.

Beyond the fielding statistics, the Atlanta Braves in Jones' best years had a reputation of overachieving pitchers. By that I mean pitchers (Horacio Ramirez, Jaret Wright, Damian Moss) who were far better with the Braves than any other club. I thought that the Braves had an all-time great center fielder was more than just a coincidence.

Jones really has a Hall of Fame peak. But falling off a cliff so early as many others have pointed out will really hurt his candidacy.

There's simply no real narrative to Jones's career beyond his defense. The woods are full of players with over 400 home runs and not much of anything else.

This is a weird thing to say, for Mrs. Lincoln and play reasons. The only major narrative to Jones' career is that he was consensus the best CF since Mays and has a legitimate argument for being the best CF of all time. Aside from that, yeah, you're right, not much narrative.

Mazeroski had an even longer and more consensual reputation as the best defensive second baseman of all time, and it still took him 34 years and a lot of love and lobbying to get into the Hall. And sorry, but when you fall off a cliff as an outfielder at the age of 30, both at the plate and in the field, you'd better put up better offensive numbers before that than Jones did (career 111 OPS+), no matter how good your defensive reputation. He's an interesting Hall of Merit case, but his HoF chances are close to zero.

A backup in the media capital of the universe.

An ineffective backup. This Yankees team that couldn't hit in the playoffs, that joylessly took turns going up to the plate, swinging three times, and sitting back down; this Yankees team decided not to put him on the postseason roster. They put half a Brett Gardner on (and gave him significant ABs!). He utterly failed in New York, and in a way that was so obvious to everyone that Yankee management didn't see much upside into letting him hit in October.

He utterly failed in New York, and in a way that was so obvious to everyone that Yankee management didn't see much upside into letting him hit in October.

The 126 OPS+ in 2011 was just an illusion or didn't count or what?

Yankees fans really do exemplify "what have you done for me lately", don't they?

I can confirm this as a Mets fan, during Braves/Mets games Jones was regularly averred to be at least the best CF since Mays and possibly as good as Mays.

And yet the stats show him to be a full win better on defense, per season, than Mays.

No question that he was fantastic in CF; maybe he was as good as Mays. But that's the limit of what I'm willing to grant him.

As goods as Mays knocks 10 WAR off his career.

The other thing that makes me wonder about Jones is that Willie Mays was still an average to slightly below avg. CF into his early 40's. Jones became a shitty LF at 32. That doesn't seem consistent with a "best of all time" CF. Basically, as soon as Jones left Atl, his defensive numbers cratered (+19 at 31, -6 at 32).

Maybe it was something in Atl (positioning, pitching staff, etc. ) that was creating the huge D numbers?

I'm happy to go on record saying the young Andruw is easily the best CF I have ever seen. He was widely considered on an HoF track through age 30 and he does finish his career with over 400 HR, 1200 runs and 1200 RBI.

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, Played 50% of games at CF, (requiring HR>=400, R>=1200 and RBI>=1200), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

                                                                                                       
Rk          Player WAR/pos  HR    R  RBI From   To   Age    G    PA    AB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS       Pos
1      Willie Mays   150.8 660 2062 1903 1951 1973 20-42 2992 12496 10881 .302 .384 .557 .941  *8/39675
2    Mickey Mantle   105.5 536 1676 1509 1951 1968 19-36 2401  9907  8102 .298 .421 .557 .977 *8397/645
3      Ken Griffey    79.2 630 1662 1836 1989 2010 19-40 2671 11304  9801 .284 .370 .538 .907   *89D/73
4      Duke Snider    63.1 407 1259 1333 1947 1964 20-37 2143  8237  7161 .295 .380 .540 .919     *89/7
5     Andruw Jones    59.5 434 1204 1289 1996 2012 19-35 2196  8664  7599 .254 .337 .486 .823   *897D/3

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, Played 50% of games at CF, (requiring HR>=400, R>=1200 and RBI>=1200), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

Nice chart, but with that 400 home run requirement you eliminate a few minor centerfielders named Speaker (127.8 WAR), Cobb (144.9) and Dimaggio (75.1, with 3 prime years missed during WWII).

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2012, Played 50% of games at CF, (requiring HR>=400, R>=1200 and RBI>=1200), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players


If you're going to rank by WAR, why limit by HR, R and RBI? WAR is meant to be all inclusive.

If you just go by WAR, 50% of games at CF, you also have Lofton, Beltran and Ashburn ahead of Jones.

Jones is 11th, only slightly ahead of Jim Edmonds and Willie Davis.

I'd elect all of Lofton, Beltran and Edmonds before I considered Andruw Jones.

I find it hard to conceive that someone who became useless without any apparent injury before turning 31, then became a pretty good part-time player, could be a Hall of Famer. But I guess his case isn't that much worse than Tim Raines's. During his HOF-worthy period he played 11 straight years of more than 150 games. Tim Raines only did that for 5 years.

Speaking as an Angeleno who had to endure Andruw Jones in 2008 with the Dodgers, I would only let him into Cooperstown if he bought a ticket and also promised to stay in upstate New York working at quaint B&B.