Let the Gary Brown Mania begin!

Can we get one for Barry Bonds?

I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.

Is there a reason why he is used for so few batters per appearance? Are the Giants missing out on a Jonny Venters-esque 85 inning awesome reliever or would his health and/or effectivess plummet if used for even just an inning per appearance?

That's a very nice projection for Gary Brown.

If you don't mind, Dan, could you run a projection for Johnny Monell?

I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.


1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145

Verlander - 144
Lee - 140
Halladay - 140
Linceum - 133
Felix - 131

Would this be a dumb spot to request a projection for John Jaso?

Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.

Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.

I think you're underselling Appier. He was fantastic in his 20's. Career 137 ERA+ in 1665.1 IP through age 29.

And then he hit the wall. Injury I suppose.

1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145

Wow. I wonder if any of the teams in need of a closer have called the Giants about Romo.

Appier actually is getting a few marginal votes in the HoPGTaG*.

(Hall of Players Greg Thinks are Great - for those who think they're better informed than the many tireless researchers over at the Hall of Merit.)

These projections look surprisingly rosy overall, especially for the offense (as well as Zito).

Dan, did something go wrong with the DeRosa projection? Or are crippling injuries and age sufficient to project him for an .033 ISO? I'm also still a little skeptical of the Gary Brown projection, but I guess I see how last season's numbers translate to something that looks more than passable at the major-league level.

Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.

I was a bit perplexed at Cain projecting to be basically as good as Lincecum, but then I went back and actually checked their records. Timmy has been less good than I expected the past two years, while Cain has been even better.

They're basically the same age, and while Lincecum has definitely been better over their careers, the gap is a lot smaller than I expected. Cain also has an extra 300 IP because he came up much earlier. But Lincecum has two Cy Young awards and Cain has a career winning percentage under .500.

Tim Lincecum's top comp is Kevin Appier? That seems weird but I'd forgotten that he had some pretty good-to-great years in the first half of his career with KC.

Over the years, Appier has become crossed in my mind with Kevin Tapani. Similar name, generally AL pitchers, same rough time frame. Tapani had a nice career but wasn't quite to Appier's level. Although winning 19 games for the Cubs with a 90 ERA+ was a neat trick.

Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.

Well, minus the mustache.

Romo had arm problems at the end of the season. It seems clear to me that he was having some arm issues so Bochy didn't use him as much as people would have liked during the season, but by doing that, it allowed Bochy to use Romo nearly to the end of the season before his arm problems necessitated rest. He relies on the slider a lot, so that could be it.

I don't see why Zito's projection would seem all that rosy, that's roughly what he did in 2009-2010. Just because his performance will never come close to matching his salary or contract does not mean that he's not a serviceable starter, particularly as the 5th guy in the rotation.

I don't see why DeRosa's projection is so shocking. He did not hit for much power while with the Giants because of his wrist problems and the projections not only take the two years into consideration, but also that he'll be 37 next season as well, which would also push ISO down more.

About projections of minor league players, what is taken into account by the methodology? Obviously MLE. Does the age of the player relative to the league also come into the calculus?

Are we really still using winning percentage to compare pitchers? Shouldn't the software here cause comments like that to burst into flames?

Could you do a projection for Blanco and also Duvall? And umm, why is Hector Sanchez a P?

1/3 of the way through, the top 5 (starters and relievers) are:

Romo - 177
Papelbon - 152
Marshall - 149
Robertson - 146
Bard - 145

Verlander - 144
Lee - 140
Halladay - 140
Linceum - 133
Felix - 131

And... I'm still taking Mariano over the field to prove ZiPs wrong... again. Even if he is something like 71 years old! :)

I'm hoping for a couple more elite seasons from Beltran so that projection is disappointing. I suppose w the Giants offense around him his runs and RBIs are going to take a hit.

The games played/at bats are a little too Marcel-ish for my tastes, and not sufficiently reflective of what looks to be a very successful surgery before the 2011 season. Beltran does need a manager who will sit him the feck down once a week. Paced, he's enough of a hitter to stick around into his late 30s even when he can't run any more. The Mets playing him 80 of 81 games was an inexcusable attempt to build his value. Guy loves to play though.

Those SB numbers are unlikely. A manager who lets Beltran steal at a rate almost triple last season deserves a low shot.

I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.

And wait til we see Kimbrel and Venters.

That's a startlingly good projection for Belt. Isn't it? Am I the only one who thinks that's surprisingly optimistic for ZiPS?

I was a bit perplexed at Cain projecting to be basically as good as Lincecum, but then I went back and actually checked their records. Timmy has been less good than I expected the past two years, while Cain has been even better.

I am 10,000% percent convinced that Cain is the most underrated pitcher in baseball.

That's a startlingly good projection for Belt. Isn't it? Am I the only one who thinks that's surprisingly optimistic for ZiPS?

Belt has raked at every stop in the minors. Now, he isn't as good as his minor league slash rates would have you believe but it isn't a surprise Zips would like him. He can hit.

I am thinking the Giants need a shortstop. Zips seems to think Brandon Crawford is not the answer.

Whoa, I just realized Adrianza is projected to be be a better fielder AND hitter than Crawford.

Give Appier 6 full seasons of a 6.23 ERA and his IP and ERA+ match Jack Morris.

See, that was the beauty of Morris and why he deserves to go into the HoF. When he needed to, Morris pitched like Appier; when he knew he could get away with it, he pitched like bad Jose Lima. That's why he won over 400 games. Appier tried to pitch like Appier all the time which is just a silly approach.

If they had let Morris bat, his slash line would have been 100/100/400 with 150 walk-off HR plus that memorable drive off Smoltz in Game 7.

So ...

1. Matt Cain is a stud
2. Matt Cain is projected to pitch another 2100 innings with almost no fall-off (relative to career-to-date)
3. Matt Cain has a horrible set of comps :-)

If they had let Morris bat, his slash line would have been 100/100/400 with 150 walk-off HR plus that memorable drive off Smoltz in Game 7.

And all his outs would have been productive outs!

Romo had arm problems at the end of the season. It seems clear to me that he was having some arm issues so Bochy didn't use him as much as people would have liked during the season, but by doing that, it allowed Bochy to use Romo nearly to the end of the season before his arm problems necessitated rest. He relies on the slider a lot, so that could be it.

Thanks. I never got to see him pitch, but his stats really stick out (70 K's versus 5 BB's and zero HBPs etc).

Romo was also used somewhat as a ROOGY. It's understandable, given his heavy reliance on a slider, and he was much more effective vs RHB. But his OPS split was .402 against righties and .599 against lefties. That's good against everybody.

I'm hoping for a couple more elite seasons from Beltran so that projection is disappointing. I suppose w the Giants offense around him his runs and RBIs are going to take a hit.

Outside of playing time, I thought it was a pretty nice projection, given that he'll be 35. I'm not sure if you play fantasy or sim, but if it's sim, the ratios matter more than R/RBIs. Also, consider that he's only getting 2/3 of a season, so both of those numbers would be 78 over 162, nothing special, but maybe not as bad as it looks if you're looking at counting stats.

I read that the Giants are looking at signing 34 year old SS Alex Gonzalez. With his age (34), walk rate (about 1 in 20 ABs) , moving to a pitchers park-I do not see the upside of this beyond having to play Brandon Crawford there. Is there any other shortstops available. This parade of over-priced, aging SS's is beyond old. Sabean will do what he does worst though.

Outside of playing time, I thought it was a pretty nice projection, given that he'll be 35. I'm not sure if you play fantasy or sim, but if it's sim, the ratios matter more than R/RBIs. Also, consider that he's only getting 2/3 of a season, so both of those numbers would be 78 over 162, nothing special, but maybe not as bad as it looks if you're looking at counting stats.

I don't play either (not that there's anything wrong with them), just rooting for Beltran to stay on the HOF path. Yeah--it's not bad at all for a 35 year old with his injury history. Not offense to Dan, but my intuition is that Zips is a little too Marcel-ish at times, as I said. I don't get the feeling that it distinguishes adequately between the following career paths, say,

Year OPS+
2009 140
2010 120
2011 100

and

Year OPS+
2009 100
2010 110
2011 120

Of course, I could be way off, but not having access to Dan's black box, I have to go with my intuition in this regard. A Marcels oriented projection projects both players to put up a 113 OPS+ in 2012, and that doesn't make good sense to me.

Neither of the above paths are Beltran's, but his offseason surgery was evidently very, very successful. It's my understanding Dan doesn't go back and tinker with his projections because of things like that, and if my understanding is correct then ZIPS will often miss on players like Beltran. But, again, I could be way off on this.

In related news, Angel Villalona is apparently out from under the murder charge. Giants put him on the 40-man roster this season.

Yes, but if Appier wasnt trying to pitch like Appier, who would Morris have been trying to pitch like when he turned it on?

I wonder if Romo has the lowest ZIPS ERA projection of anybody in baseball.

And wait til we see Kimbrel and Venters.

Kimbrel's ZIPS is now out, and about the same ERA/ERA+ as Romo...