A series of unfortunate events prevented me from being “right” about Chien-Ming Wang’s demise, but I was convinced that a declining strikeout rate was the beginning of the end for a young(er) Roy Halladay after 2004… and 2005, and 2006. Boy, is my face red. —Tim Collins

He was probably just swayed by his 13.3 K/9 rate in the minors.

It seems like many of these date back to the writers' college and high school days. That's not as interesting as failed predictions from when they were actually writing for b-pro, when you could assume they had better knowledge.

Apparently I haven't read BPro in a while. I've never heard of half of those writers.

My brother and I ran a team in a keeper league in ~1991. We took Danny Tartabull over Barry Bonds in the first round because we were both certain he was going to have a better career, long-term.

Admission- my first fantasy baseball draft, I needed a backup third baseman. All halfway decent MLB third basemen were gone, so I decided to go with a prospect who would probably get called up. I narrowed it down to two, and I chose Pedro Feliz- instead of Albert Pujols. And yes, it was a keeper league...

I only wish it hads been during my college years- I was in my late 30's at the time, and had written about baseball off and on for a few years beforehand. Doh!

If Small was the Yankees’ walking miracle, Chacon was the second coming, hurling 79 innings down the stretch and going 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA (though FIP gives him a much uglier 4.56 mark). As a 14-year-old, I didn’t pay much attention to sabermetrics. If I had, maybe I would have pointed to Chacon’s low strikeout rate and high walk rate as two major red flags

Gee, we're including mistaken predictions from when we were 14? Was there nothing more recent?

A lot of these are silly.

I bought into the hype over the 1998 "Jurassic Park" Orioles.

When I was nine months old, my mom's face suddenly disappeared during a game of "Peek-a-Boo." I naturally assumed she was dead and I would never see her again. Boy, I wish I had that one back again.

If Small was the Yankees’ walking miracle, Chacon was the second coming, hurling 79 innings down the stretch and going 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA (though FIP gives him a much uglier 4.56 mark). As a 14-year-old, I didn’t pay much attention to sabermetrics. If I had, maybe I would have pointed to Chacon’s low strikeout rate and high walk rate as two major red flags

Wait, he was 14 years old then? But that JUST HAPPENED! Jeez, I'm getting old.

So this is only bad predictions made at some point by current B-Pro writers, and not predictions of things that actually appeared in B-Pro? Because writing an entire preview of the 2002 AL West (a division with only four teams, mind you), and completely fail to even mention one of the teams, even just to brush them off is pretty bad. It's ESPECIALLY bad when that team, whose chances of winning were so non-existent that they didn't get mentioned in the season preview, goes on to win the World Series. It doesn't help when you follow that up with a column devoted entirely to how that team (the one that won the World Series) has absolutely no chance to be successful.

When I was nine months old, my mom's face suddenly disappeared during a game of "Peek-a-Boo." I naturally assumed she was dead and I would never see her again. Boy, I wish I had that one back again.

Just a little egg on your face (maybe literally at that age). All's well that ends well.

When I was three years old, I thought Gregg Jefferies was going to be the game's next superstar.

Not baseball-related, but back in '78, in a fanzine review of Talking Heads' second album, I opined that anyone who took the band's cover of "Take Me to the River" as indicating any sort of real interest in funk/soul was living in a fantasy world.

Oops.

I've never heard of half of those writers.

And the ones you have heard of are way past their prime.

I bet we all have a few…

"Titanic will tank"

The movie, not the ship. I was right about the ship.

I always had problems with 8 times 6 back in third grade. I cringe when I think back to those days, how sadly misinformed I was.

So I know where these Baseball Prospectus writers are coming from.

BP should have an article with their top 10 mistaken predictions, and their top 10 great predictions. That would be interesting to read. This "Oh, I once thought the Easter Bunny was real and babies came from storks" stuff for the most part isn't.

Wouldn't be hard to pull a list together. They can have their readers chime in. Any outfit that makes predictions/projections is going to be wrong a fair amount of time, so there's no shame in it.

One of my favorites was when they predicted over and over again that David Wells was about to fall off a cliff.

One of my favorites was when they predicted over and over again that David Wells was about to fall off a cliff.

I think people on this site (myself included) have predicted Raul Ibanez to fall off a cliff every year for about 8 years now.

If Small was the Yankees’ walking miracle, Chacon was the second coming, hurling 79 innings down the stretch and going 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA (though FIP gives him a much uglier 4.56 mark). As a 14-year-old, I didn’t pay much attention to sabermetrics. If I had, maybe I would have pointed to Chacon’s low strikeout rate and high walk rate as two major red flags

Gee, we're including mistaken predictions from when we were 14? Was there nothing more recent?

Jesus he was 14 when Chacon pitched for the Yankees? Wasn't 2005 like...two years ago?

Predictions of my marriage to Diane Keaton were greatly mistaken.

Having just watched VP candidate Richard Nixon's 1952 "Checkers" speech on TV, my parents turned to each other and breathed a sigh of relief, agreeing that after that disaster, Nixon's political career was over.

When I was three years old, I thought Gregg Jefferies was going to be the game's next superstar.

I thought this when I was 12. And 13. And 14.

... As a 14-year-old, I didn’t pay much attention to sabermetrics...—Stephani Bee

Not only was the writer of the Chacon part only 14, they were a 14 year old girl.

In the spring of 1998, I turned down a straight-up offer of Bobby Abreu for Jon Nunnally.
In the spring of 2003, I turned down Albert Pujols for Adam Dunn and Ramon Ortiz.
In the spring of 2010, I turned down Mike Trout for Mike Carp.

I was an adult for all these trades. Not a very smart adult, obviously. I've missed some opportunities.

At the end of the season I like to pretend I'm Bill James circa 1983 and write little comments for all the players. No one reads it except for myself, but I find it's a good source to refer back and see what I thought of certain players over time.

The 2011-2012 off-season had a couple doozies.

Edwin Encarnacion was off a bit:
"Every year Encarnacion shows just enough power to keep teams interested. Though not enough to justify a spot in the starting nine considering his rather obvious flaws. Encarnacion is a lefty masher with no defensive value whatsoever. In the days of the short bullpen and the long bench that’s a useful player. But quite frankly there just isn’t enough room on a 21st century roster for a player of such narrow skills. I expect he’ll hit 20 HRs and everyone in Toronto will pat themselves on the back for keeping him around."

On Wilson Ramos:
"Ramos is a bit of an over-looked player on a Nationals team with some once (or twice) in a lifetime prospects, but seeing as he’s already a solid player and doesn’t hit free agency until 2016 Ramos should be a core piece of the first contending Nationals team in a couple years."

Kelly Johnson's is painful:
Over the next three or four years I think he has a better chance of being a worthwhile player than Aaron Hill who I think, at his best, is a better player than Johnson, but at his worst, is much, much worse.

Ian Desmond:
He’s a player you keep running out there because there’s a chance he could turn into something. Especially a team like the Nationals who can afford to try and catch lightning in a bottle at the moment. Unfortunately he’s looking like Orlando Cabrera without the glove…which is not a good player.

Drew Stubbs:
As it is, he was merely an average player in a down year. I expect he’ll be a fine player, warts and all, for the foreseeable future.

For Jose Bautista I lifted this quote from somewhere (though for the life of me I cannot recall where)

"Whatever his antecedents he was something wholly other than their sum, nor was there any system by which to divide him back into his origins for he would not go. Whoever would seek out his history through what unraveling of loins and ledgerbooks must stand at last darkened and dumb at the shore of a void without terminus or origin."

And another poem on the subject of Luke Hochevar, which sadly I don't think I can blame anyone other than myself for producing

Hopes were high (though God knows why)
As Hochevar took the mound on Opening Day
That the label “ace” may stick to the first overall pick
But the Royals lost in the regular way, with shoddy baseball play
And the fans doth barely restrain their sick

Having just watched VP candidate Richard Nixon's 1952 "Checkers" speech on TV, my parents turned to each other and breathed a sigh of relief, agreeing that after that disaster, Nixon's political career was over.


I'd always thought his political career ended with this quote, made after losing the CA gubernatorial race (in 1962):

"You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference"

The main thing I noticed, given the ages people said they were when these things happened, is that BPro currently employs a lot of people in their very early 20s.

At the end of the season I like to pretend I'm Bill James circa 1983 and write little comments for all the players. No one reads it except for myself, but I find it's a good source to refer back and see what I thought of certain players over time.

I do shadow drafts. I thought Kurt Suzuki and JA Happ were worthy of later round picks. I also thought Kenny Baugh and Cesar Carillo were first round picks, and Brad Lincoln was the best pitcher in the 2006 draft over Lincecum and Kershaw.

Who the #### would ever want this iPad thing? It's too heavy to bring with you, it's too cramped to use at home. They'll sell a few to fans and gizmo freaks.

I do shadow drafts. I thought Kurt Suzuki and JA Happ were worthy of later round picks. I also thought Kenny Baugh and Cesar Carillo were first round picks, and Brad Lincoln was the best pitcher in the 2006 draft over Lincecum and Kershaw.

I have shadowed Stetson Allie in the top 10 picks, Jack McGeary in the 2nd round and Reese Havens in the first.

Who wouldn't think Gregg Jefferies would be a star? He destroyed AA ball at age 19, and then had a terrific September-October cup of coffee (including postseason). It was hard not to be excited. And then he did end up being a decent MLB player, really.

I think Prospectus had Andy Marte as the #1 prospect one year. Now that's a complete failure; a guy who did nothing. I don't think prospect projection should really count here, though. No one can do that for any length of time without huge misses. It might be more fair to criticize BP for putting Josh Phelps on the cover.... but I guess putting someone on the cover isn't necessarily equivalent to a claim that the guy is a great player.

The best bad predictions are of course when the predictor is insufferably obnoxious about it, e.g. Dave Cameron on Cano or Mike Morse (and if he finally becomes right about Morse now that Morse is back on the Mariners, it'll be even better.)

In Rotisserie league, I released Barry Bonds as a rookie. This guy is hitting .220; that sucks! (It didn't even make sense for that one year; his steals and homers were still very valuable in Roto. Damn Chadwick Ratio.) I also saw Albert Pujols fall to 24th in a 24-team rookie draft -- i.e., the best team got him -- while I picked Luis Rivas 8th. But again, that's the prospect thing.

In fantasy basketball, I traded Steve Nash for Radoslav Nesterovic.

The best bad predictions are of course when the predictor is insufferably obnoxious about it, e.g. Dave Cameron on Cano or Mike Morse (and if Morse stinks for the Mariners while John Jaso is good for the A's, that'll be especially great.)

My favorite bad predictions are when the predictor is almost immediately proved wrong (Cameron on the 2010 Rockies, moments before they went in the tank for the remainder of the season or Bernie Miklasz later in the year on the Reds being done after getting swept by the Cards in the Kickin' Cueto series).

I thought keeping Jay Payton rather than trading him for Sheffield was the right move. Ugh. At least I didn't have to cheer for Gary Sheffield. Except, wait, I did. #### me.

#5 I've had Albert Pujols for his entire career in my strat league. But he was a consolation prize. I actually wanted Adam Dunn but could not persuade the owner of the first pick to swap.

(Cameron on the 2010 Rockies, moments before they went in the tank for the remainder of the season

That was actually the 2011 Rockies. The 2010 Rockies were in contention till the last two weeks of the season.

I thought Jim Edmonds would stink up the joint for the Cubs after he got traded to the team.

And that is about it on things that can be proven one way or another.

Base ball will never be more popular than cricket, you blackguard!

I was sure George McGovern would win the 1972 election since everybody I knew was voting for him. Of course Fox News viewers were sure Mitt would win overwhelmingly last year (damn ACORN).

I think my all-time favorite was the write-up of Brendan Harris that basically said he had a chance of being the next Barry Bonds.

Ian Desmond:
He’s a player you keep running out there because there’s a chance he could turn into something. Especially a team like the Nationals who can afford to try and catch lightning in a bottle at the moment. Unfortunately he’s looking like Orlando Cabrera without the glove…which is not a good player.

i was listening to some guy named rubin on the local sports radio station last night, and he claimed that desmond was going to be the MVP this year. i had kind of a stroke sometime after i heard him say that, but i think his reasoning was something along the lines of "he hit .250 with 8 homeruns two years ago and he hit .290 with 25 homeruns last year, so if he continues to improve at that rate, he'll be the best player by a mile".

One night, I thought a Marlins game would be a nice way to spend the evening.

Bitter early '90s fantasy owner that I am, I cite Bill James' confident predictions of Cy Youngs for Arthur Rhodes & MVPs for Marc Newfield fairly often.

I think my all-time favorite was the write-up of Brendan Harris that basically said he had a chance of being the next Barry Bonds.

Well Bonds is now out of baseball, but Brendan had an OPS of .914 last year, at last BP is proven correct. (I will also never forget that "prediction" even at the time it was made it seemed absurd.)

This thread is making me feel a lot better about my brothers and I refusing to trade Matt Wieters for Mike Trout in our keeper league last offseason.

Not that much better though. That was easily the most phenomenally stupid decision we've made with that team.

I still don't understand how Jackie Rexrode keeps getting stiffed every. single. year. when it comes time to announce the MVP award.

I thought Harris was compared to Pujols (both minor-league 3B), and that it was at least prefaced by a "don't get us wrong, we're not saying he's as GOOD as Pujols, but..." disclaimer. Can we get the quote here?

It was definitely Albert. My memory is that it was basically "no one is likely to be Pujols in 2002, but if anyone has a shot, it's Harris."

For Jose Bautista I lifted this quote from somewhere (though for the life of me I cannot recall where)

It's from Blood Meridian by Cormac McCarthy.

Easily this one:
So very close.

One of the first things I ever posted on this site, in the old Transaction Oracle, was the opinion that the Pirates didn't do all that badly in the recent Jason Schmidt trade.