BBTF.org/m/hof : Jay Jaffe: Postseason performance enhances Beltran’s emerging Hall of Fame case

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

JM Catellier: Is Pedro Martinez a First Ballot Hall of Famer?

(www.rantsports.com)

posted 2 days ago by Repoz to hof, sabermetrics | 155 comment(s)

Welcome back, JM Catellier…and his “own unique statistical formula”!

The average 20th century Hall of Fame starting pitcher has 258.3 career wins. That number is dragged down by Sandy Koufax’ 165 victories, but he can’t be omitted from this exercise as I consider him the best starting pitcher to ever throw a baseball.

Former Boston Red Sox ace Pedro Martinez retired following the 2009 season with just 219 wins and only two 20-win seasons. Is it possible that he’s a first ballot Hall of ...

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1. Greg (U)K posted on October 16, 2012 at 07:52 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

My super-duper career evaluation system (career, best 3 seasons, best 5 seasons, WAR per PA all weighted arbitrarily) which treats B-Ref WAR as beyond reproach and is therefore to be taken very seriously has Beltran at a score of 82.7, where the Hall of Fame discussions begins around 75 and comes in at "lock" territory somewhere in the low-80s. He just pulled into a tie with Lofton after the 2012 season.

Among the players listed here I have
Bonds - 169.2 (essentially breaking the formula)
Rordirguez - 130.1
Griffey - 100.7
Chipper - 95.1
Ramirez - 77.8
Palmeiro - 77.2
Vlad - 73.6
Sheffield - 70.8 (obviously this and Manny's rating hinges on B-Ref stance on his D)

2. TomH posted on October 16, 2012 at 08:09 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Carlos Beltran's post-season stats, as of Tues AM, multplied by 5 (which gives it the full-season look, and in case you view post-season games as about 5 times as imortant as regular season games).
.G 150
AB 555
BB 120
2B 45
HR 70
SB 45
CS 00
R 190 (!!)
RBI 125
OPS1324 (#1 all time)

3. Gonna break my Rusty Kuntz and run . . . Arbitol posted on October 16, 2012 at 09:25 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Beltran at a score of 82.7, where the Hall of Fame discussions begins around 75 and comes in at "lock" territory somewhere in the low-80s. He just pulled into a tie with Lofton after the 2012 season.

So now he's a lock for the Hall of Fame ... just like Kenny Lofton is?

4. BDC

posted on October 16, 2012 at 09:38 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Don't have time to run a comps list right now, but it's interesting that Beltran keeps appearing on all the ones I've done recently: Ichiro, of course, Rolen, David Wright through age 29, etc. Definitely a darn good ballplayer.

5. Greg (U)K posted on October 16, 2012 at 09:47 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

So now he's a lock for the Hall of Fame ... just like Kenny Lofton is?

I should have specified that this is my personal Hall of Fame and not a projection for the actual one. In which case it is a fairly comfortable "yes" in both cases, though lock may be over-stating it.

6. zack posted on October 16, 2012 at 09:54 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

But...but...he took that curveball that one time! He's history's greatest monster!

7. JE (Jason Epstein)

posted on October 16, 2012 at 10:28 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

I should have specified that this is my personal Hall of Fame and not a projection for the actual one.

That's pretty cool. Do Bud Selig and Joe Morgan make it to your induction ceremonies?

8. Greg (U)K posted on October 16, 2012 at 10:31 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

That's pretty cool. Do Bud Selig and Joe Morgan make it to your induction ceremonies?

How big do you think my living room is? I'm only a student.

9. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman posted on October 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM # hit 0 | hit 0

Regardless of his HOF chances, the numbers in [2] are worth gawping at. Jeebus.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

JM Catellier: Is Pedro Martinez a First Ballot Hall of Famer?

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