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Jeff Bagwell 52
Also, he has Biggio at 76% and Morris at 69%. They would have to make significant inroads on the remaining ballots, as they're currently at 68% and 61%, respectively.
I think Morris always polls at least 5% below what he really gets.
This one. How doesn't it make sense?
It’s worth noting that with some players, Repoz's Gizmo has a consistent tendency to be off. Over the last three elections, it has overestimated Raines’ support by 8.0 percent. It underestimates Jack Morris (off by an average of 5.6 percent), Lee Smith (5.8 percent), Larry Walker (5.6 percent), Don Mattingly (8.4 percent), and Bernie Williams (6.2 percent).
Fun fact No. 1: through 1986, every BBWAA Hall of Fame election averaged at least seven names per ballot.
Fun fact No. 2: from 1987-onward, no BBWAA Hall of Fame election has averaged as much as seven names per ballot.
Last year’s ballot averaged just 5.10 names on it, an all-time low.
DL - my worst ever prediction was Raines' first year on the ballot, and it's because not only was the ballot tracker high, but the earlier ballots trakced were even higher still. I think it began with Raines at 50%, well down to around 40%, and he came in at 24%. So I'm especially leery with Raines.
As for Bagwell, the ballot-tallying just looks really high so far. Given where Bagwell was last year and how many new guys are on the ballot this year, it defies historical precedent to see him skyrocket up to 60% or higher. I could still be low, but that's high.
Alas, historical precedent is going to be less of a guide here. The BBWAA is clearly 2 or 3 separate populations now and that always leads to weirdness. But, ignoring that (kinda) this is just a year when two "borderline 1st ballot" candidates (Biggio and Piazza) debuted on the ballot.
I'm guessing it's higher than the non-Repoz sample -- but I'm assuming we'll see a reasonable jump in names per ballot this year. If I added right, the Repoz sample is up to nearly 6.8 per ballot.
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