Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Ike Davis of New York Mets not concerned about 4-for-27 start at plate - NYPOST.com
(www.nypost.com)
Ike Davis, future hitting coach.
“I feel great, I’m seeing it great and I swung at one bad pitch [Monday] and that was basically it,” Davis said. “I’m fouling back a lot of pitches I should hit. Once I actually start hitting those pitches instead of fouling them back, that’s when I start to get hot.”
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1 2 >Anybody know what changes they're trying to get him to make?
Converting to Islam, I think.
He is better than the previous Ike Davis, however.
I'm guessing the thought process is Duda - Davis + whatever you get for Davis that fills a hole somewhere else makes the team better.
Yunel Escobar for Davis.
Well, Davis is the one hitting .223 right now. At least if you deal Duda you're kinda sorta selling high on him.
And, even if you can't get much for Duda, you don't dump the guy with an MLB future because you can't get anything for the AAAA type.
Even if we completely discount the valley fever, he is a fine fielding first baseman, entering what should be his prime, with a 115 career OPS+ in 1300 plate appearances. I think he's a better bet than Duda, and I don't think you're going to get overwhelmed by anyone for him. He's a guy the Mets should keep around.
Escobar's pretty cheap until 2015, and I'd also think the Jays have faith in him considering they just put together that extension recently (last off-season I think?)
Davis for Travis Snider might have been an interesting move (Davis higher floor, Snider higher ceiling) if they hadn't already moved him for a reliever.
Whatever happened to that illness Davis had at the beginning of the year? Was that bothering him all season?
EDIT: I see Russlan covered it.
250/344/503 265/357/492
168/209/323 216/276/356
Those are Ike's 2012 and career splits vs RHB/LHB. I have a feeling Earl Weaver would know what to do with him.
Selling high on Duda? He's 26 years old and was sent down to the minors for part of the year because of how bad he was playing. If they traded him prior to this year, when he was coming off a 138 OPS+, then you would have been selling high.
Some kind of 1B/DH platoon with Jonny Gomes!
It's surprising that they would want to deal him in favor of Duda, given that Ike is younger and better, and that they sent down Duda a couple of months ago for little apparent reason. I suppose it still could be logical to trade Ike if the difference between their trade values is more than the difference between their actual values. And maybe that's the case, if Duda is viewed by other teams as a DH but in fact can play an acceptable 1B.
Ike disputes the "stays out too late" criticism, which, not knowing any more about it than that, does seem like a lame thing to worry about.
The Mets have done an excellent job of avoiding soap opera episodes in the post-Minaya era. It'd be nice if we didn't have one now.
Duda is probably a bench player - he reminds me of Mark Johnson, Bubba Trammell, Karim Garcia, Butch Huskey, Daryle Ward ... guys that hit the ball pretty far sometimes, might have some faux defensive versatility, and don't really help all that much in the long run.
There shouldn't be any question of who is the first baseman of the future, IMO.
Davis' hitting against lefties is a bit of a disaster, and in late innings, always facing a LOOGY, it's pretty much like having a pitcher in the heart of the lineup. But that isn't a new problem when your outfield is Jason Bay, Andres Torres and Scott Hairston. The one strength of the team is depth in pitching prospects, so I really don't see who you're going to trade Ike for unless you can steal a superior outfielder. But that's not saying anything.
Why exactly would Travis Snider have the higher ceiling? They are about the same age and Davis has been more successful at the major league level. I think Duda would be the guy to be traded for Snider.
It's going to be an interesting offseason. The Mets are at a crossroads. With some luck regarding their young pitching and a few good moves, they could compete soon. If those arms don't work out, this team is in trouble.
There's a bizarre feeling in New York that he's a star. I guess that happens when your only real contributors on offense are Wright and Murphy. Davis has simply not helped as a 1B. He's been replacement level this year, and while I think he's better than that because he does have a 115 career OPS+, "mediocre" is the word I'd use.
His first half was crap, as referenced; but watching him all year, more in the second half, it's not entirely fanboyism to think that he's better than mediocre.
The Mets have too many guys like that. Murphy, Thole, Tejada, Duda. Sure you need to have some of them on your team (if they are cheap)and they won't lose you the game but they don't have the players to win the games.
You mean platoon him? They're doing that.
Shouldn't that be Hairston?
Hairston's already needed in the outfield. It pains me to say it, but on the roster it should probably be Justin Turner. But with the lost season I am happy to see Davis get meaningless ABs against lefties.
Something else I noticed; when he first came up in 2010 the Braves had Heyward, the Nats had Strasburg on the way, the Marlins had Stanton, the Phillies had Dominic Brown who at the time was a good prospect; so it kinda became like well Ike Davis is the Mets best young player, so he's their next star. He was solid in year 1, and then at the beginning of last year, before he got hurt, he was actually playing like a star player. This year he had the awful start, which as a Met fan I'll chalk up to the valley fever (though I'm being biased, of course) but he's been really good for a few months. His BABIP for the season is 245, which seems too low. His career total is 293. I think next year he'll end up being a good player, but it's likely he's not going to be a true star at first base. If Duda had hit this year like he did last year, then it wouldn't be a terrible idea, but Duda's bat hasn't been good enough to justify trading Davis. (Doesn't mean they shouldn;'t trade Davis if there is a good deal out there, but not because they have Duda t replace him).
Yeah, and also part of the problem is 3 of those 4 guys hit better in 2011 than 2012. When the Mets offense was doing well earlier in the year it was basically built around having David Wright plus a bunch of guys who weren't gonna kill you at the plate (plus Davis, who was killing them).
Just as a point about how the game has changed, there are currently 5 players in the NL with a 900 OPS. (Wow, Yadi Molina is having an awesome year). One of them is Melky, who was at 905, so if he didn't get suspended, I bet he'd end up below. There are guys who could end up moving from below to above, but a 900 OPS is awesome now. (In 2000, there were 26 guys in the NL with a 900 OPS). Not sure Ike will ever get there.
I wonder if they look at moving Niese. He's had a really strong year, and I like his future, but maybe he's the only way to bring an impact bat in. They have Gee who looks like a solid back end type guy, plus Harvey, who looks great, and Wheeler. Maybe they think there is enough young pitching and they dangle Niese. Just a thought.
I ignore in-season splits except to wonder whether he was injured in some way. But this "Oh, he had a bad first half, so let's ignore it because he then figured it out in the second half" is flawed. If he were a young player just called up, fine, but he's been in the league for a few years now.
The valley fever though. That's not an injury necessarily, but I could see how that contributes to a slow start. I don't think he had many AB in spring training. And for whatever its worth, he didn't play after the first two weeks of May last year either. He had basically played a little more than a full major league season by the time 2012 rolled around. You don't throw out the numbers, and i don't think he;s a 920 OPS or whatever his line is from June 1.
I agree with your point in general though.
Davis is "mediocre" in that (a) don't under-rate mediocre, mediocre is just fine and (b) the average 1B in the NL has an OPS+ somewhere around 110-115 which means the "average" starting 1B is somewhere above that. So Davis is around a league-average 1B -- mediocre. He's still young enough to improve but generally a 25-year-old "true 115" OPS+ hitter can only be expected to peak at maybe 125 before coming back down. Obviously some will break out in a major way ... and obviously some don't improve at all or decline.
I agree with Ray, no reason to give Davis a pass on his performance in the first few months. I hope it wasn't representative of his abilities, but I don't see a good reason to ignore it.
DB
I don't see a reason to trade either of them at this point - you're selling low on both and you're not going to get much in return - but if you are going to, Duda is the guy you trade.
The Mets have too many guys like that. Murphy, Thole, Tejada, Duda. Sure you need to have some of them on your team (if they are cheap)and they won't lose you the game but they don't have the players to win the games.
These are the kind of guys it's good to have on your bench and in utility roles (although I think Murph is better than that). You don't want Duda as your starter but if you trade away everyone you don't want as a starter you end up with guys like Lenny Harris on your bench.
Hmmm. I was thinking that earlier in the year, but then most of the hitters got "figured out" by the rest of the league. I suppose all of the them should be on the trade block, of course, depending on what you can get. Davis is obviously the more complete player, but Duda at first would be a downgrade on defense only (see the table in the article). Duda, to my eyes (ymmv), has pretty serious power. He hits homers to the opposite field. Not left center, but pure left field. I haven't seen Lucas play first, so I don't know how much better Ike is.
How many games are the Mets going to win with Hairston, ? and Duda as the outfield? Man, they really need a CF. Does anyone else think Shane Victorino is worth signing, with Cap'n Kirk getting some games against righties?
You can replace CF with OF. They have no one I'd be happy with as an every day OF next year.
BTW, Lenny Harris is the all-time leader in pinch-hits¹. Now, the Met version of Lenny Harris was another story.
¹ Arguably not as cool as being the single-season leader in pinch-walks, like Matt Franco.
Maybe when Duda hits them, he does hit bombs. But he doesn't hit that many of them. His overall ML profile to date is not as a stud power hitter, especially not in comparison to Davis. We're talking Mitch Moreland, Adam Lind and Jonny Gomes (all guys who have their uses except maybe Lind and Gomes :-) not Mike Morse (or Vernon Wells!).
As we all know, nobody has given Ike Davis fanboys a harder time than me but he's better than Duda right now and has a substantially bigger upside than Duda. Granted, that doesn't mean that Duda plus what you can get for Davis isn't better than Davis and what you can get for Duda so no harm in shopping Davis around.
A lot.
BTW, Lenny Harris is the all-time leader in pinch-hits¹. Now, the Met version of Lenny Harris was another story.
That is kind of like being the all-time leader in first dates...yes it's a record, but I'm pretty sure it's not a good thing.
Anyway, Lenny Harris had one good season at age 25 and was below replacement level for the rest of his career. That didn't stop the Mets from giving him starts at 1B and World Series at-bats a decade later...sigh.
Davis hits some Delgado-like bombs. There may be reasons to prefer Duda to Davis but I don't think power is one of them. I think Ike's biggest problem will be hitting for a decent average.
Agreed. Duda's power has been a source of disappointment, IMO. He hits them far from time to time, because he's a heavy guy that swings hard, but it happens rarely. Even last year, when he was hitting the ball squarely, he didn't get it over the fence very often. 25 homeruns shouldn't be a struggle for him, but it is.
By the way, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker, Lucas Duda has never hit a homerun to leftfield.
On the other hand, Ike Davis murders the ball. Lots of his homeruns are long gone, the type where the right fielder doesn't move a step.
Anybody know what changes they're trying to get him to make?
They want him to cut down on the home runs, he's making the rest of the team look bad.
I was backing Davis over Duda back when he was hitting .180, so, his success in the last couple months has only reinforced my opinion.
Adrian Gonzalez was a great example for me. I guess he had disappointed in the minors, but I still can't believe the Rangers traded him for Adam Eaton.
Well, yeah, that's what I was kind of getting at. Also, by "selling high," I meant to compare Duda's stock to Davis' 2012. Duda's stock recent performance in pretty muhc in line with his ability, where as Davis recent performance is under his ability. So maybe instead of "selling high" I should have said "selling low" on Duda vs. "selling lowest" on Davis.
I should remember, when talking about the Mets, that there are no high points.
Except for Tony Tarasco and Mark Corey.
And Grant Roberts. And Mike Crudale.
This is only somewhat related, but I saw a stat that said from 2009-2011 (before they moved the fences in) no Met left handed hitter hit any homers to LF. That's pretty incredible. (Not that the Mets had a ton of left handed pop over that time).
Duda looks like a guy who should have a lot of power, and he has hit some long ones, but he hasn't really hit for a ton of power yet. I would guess Ike has hit more long (defining them however you want) HR than Duda. Duda's K rate has really sky rocketed this year; last year he struck out 16.4% of the time, this year it's 25.9%. That's probably the difference between hitting the 245 he is right now, and I don't know, maybe like 270 or so, which makes his numbers a lot more palatable. (But still not great or anything).
Adrian Gonzalez was actually offered to the Mets for Armando Benitez, but the Marlins wanted the Mets to pay Benitez's salary. So the Mets passed and traded Benitez to the Yankees (who agreed to take on Benitez's salary) for Jason Anderson. Saved the Mets around $3 mil or so, as I recall. Another brilliant decision brought to you by the Fred Wilpon era.
I don't get the reason for even attempting to deal Davis right now-- MM1f is dead on that Davis's stock is low, due in large part to his terrible first couple of months. Davis might have said that the VF wasn't affecting him, but he was also trying to not make excuses for his abysmal performance. From what I remember reading at the time, Davis's problems seemed in line with the lingering effects of VF-- his reflexes just weren't cooperating with him. Maybe the slump was for more conventional reasons, maybe not, but given the fact that he's dirt cheap and talented, it seems like holding onto him and letting him have a season at full health would be prudent.
I don't get the rush to deal Duda either. He's not very good, but he's essentially a free OF, and the Mets need those right now.
The Mets really do make Septembers tough to bear...
sometimes a team gets rid of a player who is good enough, even when they don't have someone better because for whatever reason they don't like the guy - see astros and luke scott
#42 - you're in the majority which is why we see so many suckage former first rounders who stick around much longer than lower rounders with the same stats. or given more chances when there are lower rounders who are obviously better
a whole lot of folks don't like to admit that they made a mistake or that an "inferior" player is/could be better
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