Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Seattle Weekly: The Real Reason “King” Felix Chose to Stay In Seattle
(www.seattleweekly.com)
Chace’s Pancake Corral, for real. (NYT backgrounder on the star who stayed)
Read More...Seems our favorite M, who dazzles us with the K, makes it a point to visit the Pancake Corral a couple of times a week, in fact, whenever the team’s in town.
“Yes, he comes in with wife and cute little boy and he always has the strawberry waffle with bacon and eggs and orange juice,” says owner Jane Zakskorn, whose dad, William Chace, now deceased, opened the cozy little breakfast and lunch joint 55 years ago ...
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1 2 >Sean Rodriguez is the type of player that the Rays tend to overvalue; Mike Carp is the type of player that the Rays don't value much at all. That trade will never happen.
-- MWE
Yeah, this -- 7/100?
Is he worth 7/100 even if he can sustain his current production? I know I've always underrated Swisher and just looking at his numbers closely, I further recognize that I am now... but, he's a 31 yo corner OF. A good one, yes (is he even "very good"?) - but to me, the only way I'm spending something approaching that sort of commitment is to a true star on the order of a, I don't know, Ryan Braun or a Manny Rameriz type... I realize you don't get a Ryan Braun or Manny for 7/100 on the open market, but I'm just saying that position scarcity means I'd only spend a premium for a relatively easy spot to fill if I was filling it with a truly premium bat.
I'd do it for a legit CF, a MI, maybe a 3B or a cather... but not for 1B/LF/RF, at least, not a 31 yo one.
That's a really weird contract. Crazy years, but a pretty low AAV.
He's making $10.5M now, and I think, short term, is worth $15M. I'd guess more like 4/60 or 5/75 for Swisher 5/90 if somebody got crazy.
I wouldn't mind the Yankees overpaying for Swisher on a shortish deal.
I'd wager heavily that Carlos Villanueva is gonna get a lot more than 1/4.
It's easy to do that when you always end up being right.
Probably - but I don't think I'd want to be the one that pays it.
Carlos Villanueva is a pitching siren... he seems like he has good stuff, his peripherals are generally very good - except for the gopher balls.
He reminds me a lot of a different model Juan Cruz - a perfectly cromulent pitcher that just always seemed like he should be a lot better than he actually is.
If nothing else, the arrival of the Astros should mean that the Mariners can avoid last place in the AL West, unlike the last three years..
5/90 is more expensive than 7/100. 7/100 is like 5/90 but with a cheap 2/10 tacked on. Except even that even more money gets pushed off further into the future, so even if he had no value in 5 years, just spreading the cost out more by itself could be worth it.
Then again I'm not overly enthralled with Rodriguez (particularly since the M's look set at second and third) or Gimenez either.
As I keep saying, with the new TV money and most of the good ones signed up long-term, there's some crazy money in baseball right now. $/WAR on the FA market is probably gonna be $6 maybe $6.5. Swisher for 3/$51 (say) might not be as nuts as it sounds. If you can tack on another 4 years at $49 (by which time $/WAR might be more along the lines of $7-7.5) you're only asking him to be a 1.5 win nice bench player in the out years. I still can't see anybody giving him 7 but who saw 6/$100 or 7/$119 for Lee and Soriano and that was ages ago.
I suppose you make a similar argument for Vargas. 2/$12 is nothing for a starter. Luke Hochevar gets paid nearly that. And Hafner at 1/$3 ... it's gonna have to be incentive-laden but that's easily worth a shot. And what is Iwakuma's situation?
It is still awesome.
Wouldn't that be good in Seattle? I think Villanueva will be an underrated steal this winter.
These actually seem sane and rational. Not necessarily great moves, but not pie in the sky either. This is boring, I want batshit crazy idea Dave back.
With that being said, I'd expect him to get more than one year, four million. There just aren't many good starting pitching options available as free agents, so the few guys who have recently been non-awful in the role are likely to get heavily bid up.
Which actually is why Melky probably won't be available for $6 million plus incentives. Teams looking for offense will have to hold their noses and pony up.
I'm sure we will be doing it ad nauseum in Sox Therapy this offseason.
Mets plan:
Add a center fielder
Add a right fielder
Maybe add a left fielder
1) Sign Pedro Feliz
2) Win World Series
1) Fire John Farrell, out of a cannon, into the sun
2) Apply for relocation to the AL Central
3) Find Ricky Romero a new supermodel girlfriend
I could maybe see a 3/$51 sort of deal for Swisher, especially for one of the richer teams whose window is right now (Yankees, Detroit, Anaheim?), but asking for 1.5 WAR out of age 35-38 Swisher is probably not realistic. He doesn't have a broad skillset, and in his 8 years as a full time player has already put up 4 seasons of 1.7 WAR or less. That just doesn't look like a guy you'd expect to age very well in his mid-late 30s.
1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central
1) Lobby MLB to eliminate the 3B position
2) Drug Casey Coleman and Matt Cain and convince each of them they are the other, have some seedy surgeon perform a Face/Off surgery, profit
3) Temporarily combine Brett Jackson and Starlin Castro into a single batter, once their diametrically opposing holes in approach at the plate have been 'healed' by the other's strengths, separate them back into two players
4) Get the Astros back into the NL Central
Meh. It's probably as good a plan as any. Maybe rummage around the Ivy to see if you can pull out an Andre Dawson or a Billy Williams.
1. Buy the Devil Rays.
2. Take all their players, coaches, and staff.
3. Ship all Red Sox players and staff to Tampa.
4. Sell the Devil Rays.
Voila!
Right, so why would Swisher take it? He's better off taking 5/90 and rolling the dice that he's still good, or inflation explodes.
7/100 is too many years for the team, and too low an AAV for the player.
7/100 is probably better for the team, and worse for the player, than 5/90. Having rights to a player for more years is good for the team, not the opposite.
Right, the player won't accept 7 years at <$15M AAV. If you go 7, it's going to be like 7/125.
If the offer is 7/100, Swisher would be better off taking 5/85 from somebody.
Not if age isn't a constant...
What are the chances a 36 yo Swisher gets 2/15 or better for his age 37 & 38 seasons?
I completely forgot he wanted Grandal, too.
What a maroon.
Seriously. Swisher was a coin flip to give you more than 1.7 WAR during his prime. He's more likely to be completely worthless as a player by the time he's 37 than he is to be getting a multi year contract.
1. Decline options on RP Matt Capps and 2b Alexi Casilla
2. Decline option on SP Scott Baker; sign Scott Baker to a 1 year, $4MM (plus incentives) contract
3. Sign SP Brandon McCarthy to a 3-year, $28MM contract
4. Sign 2b Kelly Johnson to a 1 year, $5MM contract
5. Sign CF (ha!) Grady Sizemore to a 1-year, $2MM countract
6. Sign SP Kevin Correia to a 1-year, $1.5MM contract
7. Trade CF Denard Span for SP Ross Detwiler and 1b/OF/ Tyler Moore
And since this plan is based on free agents rather than trades, we can look at the contracts the players actually get and compare them to what Dave thinks the Mariners could have gotten. It's much more susceptible to testing after the fact!
1. Sign Edwin Jackson to a 4 year $44 million deal
2. Non-tender P Luke Hochevar, 2B Chris Getz, C Brayan Pena
3. Sign P Carlos Villanueva to a 2/$8 million deal
4. Acquire P Mark Buerhle in a salary dump for token prospects
5. Murder Jeff Francoeur
1. Sign Josh Hamilton to a 5 year, $100 million contract. It's a low pressure situation, he'll hit great in this park, and there aren't that many temptations around, unless he's going to get addicted to mountain biking. Gonzalez-Fowler-Hamilton has the potential to be the best outfield in the league.
2. Move Cuddyer to first base, in a semi-platoon with Helton, who can take over Giambi's old job.
3. Name Giambi hitting coach.
4. Find a young, hungry manager who hasn't managed in the majors before to lend a sense of urgency to the club. Ryne Sandberg would do.
5. Throw Wilin Rosario 100 pitches in the dirt every day during the off-season until he learns how to stop them.
6. Trade Chris Nelson and Tyler Colvin to the Nationals for Ross Detwiler.
7. Go into the season with a rotation of Pomeranz, Chacin, Francis, Detwiler and Nicasio, with Alex White and Tyler Chatwood in long relief, ready to step in.
8. Give Nolan Arenado the job at third base, and Josh Rutledge the job at second.
OPS+ from 2006-2012: 125, 126, 93, 122, 129, 120, 126
And over that 7-year period, from age 25 to 31, he has played between 148 and 157 games every year.
I have to confess, he has been a much better, certainly much more consistent, player than I instinctively thought. It will be interesting to see how he does in the FA market. Doesn't that team in Boston have a bunch of money freed up?
That's where I got the idea that he was available!
ditto
except I don't think Smoak has any trade value at this point either.
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