Monday, May 20, 2013
Sherman: Mets’ roster of rubbish makes it impossible to evaluate Collins
(www.nypost.com)
Roster of Rubbish? I know some people were down on who joined Armisen on stage…but this is ridiculous!
Read More...And Collins’ team isn’t winning. So you should understand why he might be losing it. He turns 64 later this month. He was run out of Houston and Anaheim. There is no next managing job. This is more than his last best chance. It is just plain his last chance to prove he is a good major league manager.
...For if you know whether Collins is a good manager or bad manager based on his Mets ...
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1 2 >I'll also take the over on his projection, but I'm like that.
Ike Davis will be 25 - his career mark is 123, and he hit .309/.386/.565 in AA and .364/.500/.636 in 42 AAA PAs... and he projects to 113
Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108
Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108
Wright, OK he hit 114 last year, but he's still under 30, his 3:2:1 weighted average of 2009-2011 is 124, he projects to 116
maybe this is the fanboy in me speaking, but a bunch of these guys look 5-10 light to me
and now for my totally irrelevant complaint/comparison:
2012 ZiPS:
FMart: 242/.303/.389,
Pascucci: 215/.309/.370
2011, Buffalo:
FMart:.260/.329/.417
PAscucci: .264/.375/.476
2010, Buffalo:
FMart:.253/.317/.455
Pascucci: .258/.398/.579
Career AAA:
FMart: .265/.326/.465
Pascucci:.275/.393/.509
Yes, I know Pascucci is 33 and FMart is young and has potential and all that... But shouldn't FMart at least get CLOSE to Pascucci in the here and now before you'd expect him to pass him in the immediate future?
It was awful last year
I think that's Pascucci's K rate talking.
I'm also curious, but think that projecting Lageres is impossible at this point-
2011 was 90% BABIP driven (his walk rate went from abysmal to merely terrible)
But he was just 22, maybe he really did take a "great leap forward," he has some pop (not a lot) and his K rate is low enough so that he could sustain a high batting average, but he was pretty bad before 2011
If he hits .325 in Binghamton/Buffalo in 2012 I won't be surprised, unfortunately I wouldn't be surprised if he hits .265 with little power or walks either...
The guy I think ZiPS is most "off" on up above is Duda, I think he's legit 120-135 hitter, and will be so until he's 30, unfortunately I also think he's legit DH as well. The guy I'm terribly worried that ZiPS is right about is Wright...
I also suspect that Tejada is going to post a 100 or so... but have tad less confidence in that prediction
It's not much worse than FMart's.
The pitching -- ayayay. Why exactly were they so intent on holding on to Capuano? Thankfully, Izzy and Iggy are no more.
That's nice and all, but the problem is that nobody I know of thinks Flores has even a prayer of staying at SS, and he doesn't have nearly the speed to be a center fielder or the hands to be a 2B. So if he projects to an OPS+ of 100, it's probably going to be as a 3B or -- even more likely -- as a corner outfielder.
I assume I don't have to say what a 3B or corner outfielder with a 100ish OPS+ is worth. If he's a 3B, he better be a heck of a glove to be worth a damn.
The Ike Davis projection looks fine to me. If he plays 99 games and hits 15 home runs, that's 25 or so in a full season. Sounds about right to me. Maybe a tick higher with the shorter fences, if he's fully healthy on the ankle.
The Mets aren't going to be really good again (at the earliest) until and unless they hit the jackpot on their young pitching prospects. And that's both a longshot, and not a 2012 proposition anyway. 2012 is about watching how they progress, and hoping they stay healthy. It's not really about the major league team much, at all. I'd say the single most significant player on next year's major league team is almost certainly Niese. If he can take a step forward and start to have his results match his peripherals, he could represent the first genuine piece of the rotation they need to put together. Other than Niese, the guys we should really be watching are Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia (in his return from Tommy John). If two of those five hit as top of the rotation starters by 2014, and one develops into a solid innings guy (i.e., better than Pelfrey), the foundation for a contenders' rotation will be set and we'll be good to go.
I think Ike is a little low. 113 OPS+ does seem a tad on the low side, what offensive levels are being projected again? 338/449 is about the same as he did as a rookie (351/440) and he was great last year. Sure he didn't play a lot, but he's 2 years older, and he was really good in 35 games last year, his career slug is 460, so 449 does seem a tad light to me.
Definitely agree with this. Niese just missed qualifying for the fangraphs leaderboards, but if you drop it down to 150 IP, Niese was 17th in FIP and 10th in xFIP in the NL. He's had trouble with BABIP his entire career, but if he can get anywhere close to that, the Mets have something like a #2 starter on a championship team.
With the shorter and lower fences in left field? He'd have to be complete and utter toast for it to be WAY under. (Which I grant you is not outside the realm of possibility by any means.) I'd go for a dozen and wouldn't be shocked if he made it to the over on that.
Am I just sample-sizing the hell out of this, or does this look like a guy who's having vision issues?
and he did have power as recently as 2008/09 :-)
I agree with this entirely, which is also why I don't care too much about these (or any other) projections. The Mets need players to hit their 80th percentile or better. If most players hit their mean projection, the Mets will be crap for the next couple of years (at least). But we already knew this.
That looks to me like Wright's worst, medium, and best-case scenario.
Definitely, but the range of prices at which they are in acceptance also definitely varies.
Walk-heavy minor league numbers don't translate well. ZiPS sees Thole as being very consistent around this level (93, 95, 95, 96, 96, 94, 93, 88 though 32), but sees very little offensive upside. And catchers have more natural offensive downside than any other position. Move Thole to be an inadequate 1B and the you can pretty much add 5 points to that number a year.
Murphy will be 27, his career average is 111, he projects to 108
Again, ZiPS sees his upside as limited.
Duda is at 124 in 439 MLB PAs, he's hit .310/.398/.606 in AAA (IL, not PCL, go look up how many guys who can OPS 1.000 in the IL)- he'll be 26, he projects to 108)
ZiPS has his combined minor league translations and major league numbers as:
222/301/328
229/314/338
252/332/461
281/363/471
Which is kind of sad to me, because when Wright first came up, the comp I seemed to read everywhere was Rolen. And by about 2008 or so, it was looking like he'd be a better player than Rolen. (Damn was Rolen a great player, so maybe a better way of phrasing it was by 2007 or 2008 it looked like he would be Rolen if Rolen could play 155 games every year).
I suspected as much, but nice to know for sure. Thanks.
which using Shea/Citifield for each year yields an OPS+ of
66
75
115
131
That's an unweighted 4 year average of 97
It gives a 3:2:1 weighted average of 116
personally I think he is simply not the player he was pre-2010 (but again that could be the fanboy in me talking)
197 in 1733 PAs is walk heavy?
He may very well be a 95 "true talent" hitter, but his walk rate is average, he's got no HR power, basically his OPS/OPS+ is going to fluctuate with his BABIP
He's got a low enough K-Rate that he could hit .300 some year- and that'll generate a .300/.370/.380 line and an OPS+ of 110 or so, he might also bat .250 and drop that OPS+ to 80, he's hit 96 so far, but I just don't see him consistently being around there...
ZiPS does.
It's not that his walk rate was so *high* but that it was a disproportionately large contributor to his positive offensive value.
Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.
Limited, or passed? Isn't it basically saying, his peak is passed, even though he's about to enter his prime? I'm sure the year off didn't help, and I get why the projection is what it is with the slightly below average '09... just not sure about that explanation.
Risk skewness changes the mean expectation. Even if I know for a fact that player X is a 110 OPS+ player today, if there's more downside than upside, the expectation is necessarily going to be lower. Murphy's not projected to have a higher floor, just a lower upside.
I'm not really a contracts guy, so my thoughts on it are probably going to sound stupid. I think that the risk of his injury history cannot be ignored, and I would assume off the bat that Reyes and his agent would know asking for Crawford or Werth money is going to make them seem laughable, even if he deserves it, considering what's happened to THEM.
I don't even remember what's been bandied about already, but I think any deal at $20M+ per is too high. Have 5/90M and 6/100M been laughed off the threads already? I can't even find them.
Someone really needs to make an official FA prediction thread. I'm never going to be able to remember the random threads in which I throw out these numbers.
The Mets seem to be sending signals that they are unwilling to go past five years on any deal for Reyes. This could be meant to make clear early on their line in the sand to prepare fans for his eventual departure. As a negotiating strategy against other teams, if the Mets really want to keep him, I think it's awfully dumb. It basically tells their competition exactly what they need to do to eliminate the Mets: include a sixth year in their offer.
I expect the Mets will go to something like 5/$85 or a bit less. That won't do it, and I think it will end up getting the Mets some very bad PR when the bidding is won by somebody else well north of that -- over $100M for sure. Worse still would be if their current strategy of letting some other team set the market ends up meaning they never even make a bid at all, because Reyes's initial offers either beat the Mets' best or the offers get there so quickly the Mets never even get out of the box with a bid. Tactically, I think they are courting a debacle here -- even if it turns out the best offer ends up being one the Mets can reasonably say they should NOT have matched.
I guess to me that seems low, and I'd settle for 5/$90 or 5/$95, 6/$100 or 6/$110, but if it's 5/$100 or 6/$120 with a very heavy heart I'd probably pass.
And then watch him put up 7 or 8 years in a row like last year, because that's how we roll.
That just seems hard to believe with the current state of the SS position around the league. Just off the top of my head, he'd be an obvious upgrade for a bunch of teams that can afford him: Detroit (with Peralta moving to 3B), Boston, St. Louis (if they don't re-sign Pujols, they can't afford both), Philadelphia (if they don't re-sign Reyes), Milwaukee (if they don't re-sign Fielder), Florida (if they move Hanley to 3B or CF), San Francisco.
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