If I remember correctly, a month ago we were like 25th in the majors in runs scored.

We're now up to 15th and rising after having scored 160 runs in our last 27 games! To say this offense is on a serious extended tear would be an understatement.

and this kind of negates all of the statistics thrown at us by Mets partisans. With Zim back and Werth coming..we should be at least average and with the pitching..who knows!

I still have some trouble believing the pitching is this good - Ross Detwiler? - but clearly the Nationals pitching is legitimately elite.

One interesting thing about the Nats offense - they have some significant holes in the lineup, but their bench has been a crazy strength. Among the "below-the-line" bench players on the Nats B-Ref page, 5 of 7 have an OPS+ > 100. (Leaving out injured starters like Morse, Werth, and Ramos.)

You could call that luck, and it probably is to some degree, but that's also the sort of thing a great manager can do. Recognize the talents that will respond best to part-time play, use them intelligently and keep them involved, and you can steal a win or two. Davey Johnson still seems to be getting less credit for this Nats club than he deserves.

_I still have some trouble believing the pitching is this good

Like they say... half of pitching (or whatever) is defense. If the Nats don't (or didn't before Desmond's injury) have the best infield defense in the league, they were top 2-3. Zimmerman is elite. LaRoche solidly above average (especially compared to the ox that usually man that position). Desmond has range, and he's learned what to do with the ball after he fields it. Espinosa is amazing. If you watch the team, slow ground balls just don't get through.

Now the outfield isn't quite as good. Morse isn't anything special -- but again, compared to some of the clods out there -- he's no worse than a tick below average for the position. Harper is raw still, but he's got decent enough wheels and makes most of the plays a very good CF should make.

Combine that with a strikeout staff that doesn't give up consistently hard contact, and the good pitching seems... somewhat sustainable! God help us.

With Zim back and Werth coming...we should be at least average.

At least average? In a few weeks from now, when we're (hopefully) relatively healthy and Desmond and Werth are back, the Nationals are going to have one of the toughest, most balanced lineups from top to bottom in all of baseball, especially now that Espinosa appears to have righted the ship.

Whatever Lola wants.

Davey Johnson still seems to be getting less credit for this Nats club than he deserves.

Maybe the time isn't yet ripe for "Davey Johnson should be manager of the year" articles, but Davey Johnson certainly should be manager of the year. Although I guess Hurdle deserves a bunch of votes too.

bryce harper has struck out 66 times with only 9 homers, but he is carrying a 110 OPS+ ...

actually, i guess its lucky for him the spotlight is shining more on the team as a whole. he can reap the benefits of playing on a winner while he hones his skills. if it was all on him, that would be pretty tough to handle.

i'm not a washington fan, but this is a fun team to watch.

Things always look their brightest when a team is playing at their best. Doesn't mean they'll do it for the rest of the season. Offensively this has been their best month and I doubt the team will continue to put up a .790+ OPS the rest of the season. Just like how the pitching staff put up a .572 OPS in the first month and have settled into a .685-.695 OPS the rest of the time.

Agreed, McCoy, but OTOH, the Nats are now in a stretch where they are facing teams under .500 for the next two weeks (possibly 2 1/2 if Arizona keeps floundering). They don't face a contender again until a three-game set at San Francisco Aug. 13 -- and once that series is over, 27 of their final 44 games are at Nationals Park. They have a legitimate chance of pulling further away from the Braves, who only play them six more times.

I go to Vegas every January for a trade show and am not much of a gambler. But for 17 years, I've placed a single futures bet for $50 on what team will win the World Series. Since it's January I basically look for a team that has decently long odds but is up and coming. The only time I won was on the Phils in '08 at 15:1. This year I have the Nats at 30:1. Go Nats!

Obviously they're not going to continue on THIS hot, averaging nearly six runs a game for the whole rest of the season; they're not the Yankees or Texas offensively. But I stand by my opinion that this is going to continue to be a talented, deep, and very well-balanced lineup when we're healthy.

It's too bad that Ramos isn't coming back this season. If we had him in there as well for the stretch, there wouldn't be a single black hole of suck anywhere from 1 through 8.

It's too bad that Ramos isn't coming back this season. If we had him in there as well for the stretch, there wouldn't be a single black hole of suck anywhere from 1 through 8.

And when Strasburg was pitching, our biggest offensive threat would come from the #9 hole!

Davey Johnson still seems to be getting less credit for this Nats club than he deserves.

There was an article by Boswell posted here last week that specifically talked about his bench usage.

Then they went and DFA'd Ankeil and Nady right after that.

And when Strasburg was pitching, our biggest offensive threat would come from the #9 hole!

Are they planning to keep him on the roster to pinch-hit after shutting down his arm for the season?

Are they planning to keep him on the roster to pinch-hit after shutting down his arm for the season?

If they do truly shut him down they either have to keep him on the active roster and essentially be a player short until September, option him to the minors or invent some injury for him to go on the DL. If the Nats try to DL Strasburg with some phantom injury (hangnail/string warts/whatever) I would be disappointed in the rest of the National League if they didn't collectively didn't jump up and down and cry foul. This might not do any good as teams have traditionally been allowed to put players on the DL with little more justification than "he's hurt". We shall see.

One interesting thing about the Nats offense - they have some significant holes in the lineup, but their bench has been a crazy strength.

Driving Xavier Nady out to the deepest middle of the woods and then abandoning him there has helped.

What going on here? The Nat's offense is now hitting like the 2012 Oakland A's!

Or maybe even as good as the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates!

I don't know how to track OPS+ over time, but IIRC As have gone from 70 to 89 in last few months, and Pirates from mid 70s to 95...

If they do truly shut him down they either have to keep him on the active roster and essentially be a player short until September, option him to the minors or invent some injury for him to go on the DL.

We're just six more Strassburg starts away from expanded rosters. He's at 117.1 innings in 20 starts. At his current pace of just under six innings per start, he'd still be under 160 after his first September start.

EDIT: At his current pace, Strassburg would pitch fewer than 200 innings even if he started every fifth game for the rest of the regular season (which would include starting the last regular season game).

EDIT2: Jordan Zimmermann made his last start of 2011 on August 28.

I don't know how to track OPS+ over time, but IIRC As have gone from 70 to 89 in last few months, and Pirates from mid 70s to 95...

That's the one thing I wish BRef would track that it doesn't.

That's the one thing I wish BRef would track that it doesn't.

They have team splits.

But I stand by my opinion that this is going to continue to be a talented, deep, and very well-balanced lineup when we're healthy.

Harper has a .672 OPS in July.
Lombardozzi has a .608 OPS
Flores is being even more Flores this month.

Basically Zimmerman, Desmond, and Espinosa went nuts this month and none of them are likely to come close to repeating this performance in the months to come. Plus Bernadina is not going to hit .409/.480/.409 again as well. This team in the first few months had some serious holes in the lineup and they'll contintue to have some serious holes in the lineup the rest of the season.

They have team splits

I mean I wish that you could go to the game logs and look up a player's or team's OPS+ for say June 15th or so.

McCoy, you seem to be pretty down on the Nats in general. There a reason for that?

McCoy, you seem to be pretty down on the Nats in general. There a reason for that?

How am I being down? Irrational exuberance is the order of the day or something?

I don't think the Nationals are a talented, deep, and very well-balance offensive team. That isn't being down on them that is being a realist.

I mean I wish that you could go to the game logs and look up a player's or team's OPS+ for say June 15th or so.

Yeah that would be pretty cool.

How am I being down?

Well, it's not unreasonable to say that the Nats offense has holes in it. That's a true statement, and in isolation it's nothing worth noting. But you have a fairly long pattern, going back to at least 2010, of having a stick up your posterior about the Nationals as a franchise. In that thread you were gleefully anticipating Strasburg blowing out his arm, and others noted that you'd already established a pattern of dumping on them whenever possible.

I mean, I say nasty things about the Braves myself now and again, and once upon a time in my younger and more irresponsible days I was a pretty inexcusable anti-Mets troll, so I'm not trying to get up on a high horse here. I'm actually genuinely curious: there seems to be something in general about the team (franchise? ownership? Joey B.? ME?) that you dislike, and you therefore default to a sour orientation w/r/t them whenever you comment about them...what is it? Like, I can't stand the Braves because I view them as the kid that perpetually steals the NL East's lunch money year-in, year-out -- I envy their consistent competitiveness and excellence, oh and also Sam H. (though I know it's a schtick). What's your motivation?

Seriously: not meant as an attack or a criticism (which is why I phrased my #25 the way I did). Just always interested in the reasons people conceive a disdain for one team or another.

McCoy, you seem to be pretty down on the Nats in general. There a reason for that?

He's just in his deliberately obtuse, contrarian mode. I already made it perfectly clear that the Nats (obviously) aren't going to hit as well the rest of the season as they have over the last month, and I think I made it pretty clear that I'm talking more about a few weeks from now when Werth and Desmond are likely to be back in the lineup.

But we'll see how things go the rest of the season, won't we? That's why we watch the games.

I think I made it pretty clear that I'm talking more about a few weeks from now when Werth and Desmond are likely to be back in the lineup.

And I mentioned Desmond in my rebuttal. My statement is simple. The Nats are not a talented, deep, and very well-balance offensive team. They have a ton of offensive holes even with Werth in the lineup.

Clearly, this is all just because Jayson Werth is a winner, in the same manner that Jose Reyes is a loser.

Well, it's not unreasonable to say that the Nats offense has holes in it. That's a true statement, and in isolation it's nothing worth noting. But you have a fairly long pattern, going back to at least 2010, of having a stick up your posterior about the Nationals as a franchise. In that thread you were gleefully anticipating Strasburg blowing out his arm, and others noted that you'd already established a pattern of dumping on them whenever possible.

Well, no. In that thread I was poking you, a person who is extremely sensitive about his favorite team. My problem with the Nationals has always been that they rip their fans off when it comes to ticket pricing. You for whatever reason took exception to this.

They have a ton of offensive holes even with Werth in the lineup.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. Other than Flores, I love the lineup that we're hopefully going to be putting out there every day come September. We'll see what happens.

I love this team (after seven years of disappointment) and while acknowledging their areas of weakness I still think they have an outstanding opportunity this year..we will have to see, of course.

We're just six more Strassburg starts away from expanded rosters. He's at 117.1 innings in 20 starts. At his current pace of just under six innings per start, he'd still be under 160 after his first September start.

Are they pulling him early to be pulling him, or is he making a lot of pitches and not going deep into the games as a matter of course? I don't pay much attention to the Nats (I might see them occasionally if they show up on a game I was going to watch anyway), but I do know that Strasburg typically strikes out a lot of guys. If that's the case then they might need to be more concerned about the actual number of pitches he throws and not so much the innings.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. Other than Flores, I love the lineup that we're hopefully going to be putting out there every day come September. We'll see what happens.

But you have to admit that Bryce Harper isn't the same Bryce Harper that we saw in his first month up and Lombardozzi is being Lombardozzi. That's three holes in the lineup right there plus the pitcher spot. A lot is also riding on Werth and Desmond coming back and not missing a beat.

And despite what Esoteric thinks I'm looking forward to the Nationals making the playoffs this year and when they do I'll be getting playoff tickets.

I don't see any reason Harper isn't likely to bounce back. I think it is natural for him to have a tough stretch. I'm not sure what my goal would be for the trade deadline if I were Rizzo. Maybe a tough offensive catcher but that's a tall order.

I'm not sure what my goal would be for the trade deadline if I were Rizzo. Maybe a tough offensive catcher but that's a tall order.

The FO has stated a couple of times that the only things that are really on their wishlist are 1.) a solid backup catcher; 2.) middle infielders, presumably reserves. But that they're perfectly fine with standing pat if need be.

Seems to match my understanding of their needs too.

Yep, Harper is definitely going through a slump now, and I'm assuming he will bounce back somewhat even while Zimmerman cools off. Maybe I'm just wearing big rose-colored glasses, but I think it's reasonable to assume he eventually breaks out of the slump.

Lombardozzi and Bernadina are obviously bench guys, and they will both be back on the bench if and when Werth and Desmond are back.

Yep, Harper is definitely going through a slump now

Let's trade him to the Cubs. I hear Soriano is available.

1.) a solid backup catcher;

Kelly Shoppach can be had. He's not a great fit with the Nats catchers already being righty but he's a useful player.

I like the Nats a lot but I don't think it's unreasonable to see their offense as a bit wanting. NL teams always flummox me though, with the pitcher batting 1 or 2 other holes really stick out quick. Harper's at that point that most rookies hit where it is his turn to make adjustments. Long term I have no doubt he will but I don't think it is a certainty for this year. That loss of Desmond really hurts though because he gives them a big bat at a position where they aren't typically at. Put Harper at somewhere between his first month and the last month and give them Desmond back and I don't see them particularly weak offensively.

If they sit Strasburg for the playoffs though....man that just seems like a horrible idea to me. That's an exercise in trying to prove how smart you are rather than trying to win in my opinion.

I don't see any reason Harper isn't likely to bounce back. I think it is natural for him to have a tough stretch. I'm not sure what my goal would be for the trade deadline if I were Rizzo. Maybe a tough offensive catcher but that's a tall order.

Is there any history of young rookies bouncing back? Isn't it generally that rookies wear down as the season goes along?

I still have some trouble believing the pitching is this good - Ross Detwiler? - but clearly the Nationals pitching is legitimately elite.

What's better than elite? Going into today, the Reds' ERA+ is 127; the Nats' is 124.

Are they pulling him early to be pulling him, or is he making a lot of pitches and not going deep into the games as a matter of course? I don't pay much attention to the Nats (I might see them occasionally if they show up on a game I was going to watch anyway), but I do know that Strasburg typically strikes out a lot of guys. If that's the case then they might need to be more concerned about the actual number of pitches he throws and not so much the innings.

I don't think they've been pulling him early to limit him. He's had a couple of short outings, but mostly has gone six or seven. It's the NL and he plays for a team that doesn't score a ton of runs, so you figure he's mostly going to get pinch hit for if his spot comes up after the sixth inning or so (something like 13 of his 18 non-DH starts, I think). And of course innings are just a proxy for pitches, but he's only thrown 105 or more five times.

Also six more starts would give him 26 for the season, same as Zimmermann in 2011.

Is there any history of young rookies bouncing back? Isn't it generally that rookies wear down as the season goes along?

That sounds like work to figure that out. I'm more into gut feelings and such.

I fully expect a meteor to strike the team bus tomorrow. Things are simply going too well.

Let's see. The Nationals are in Milwaukee. The EAA AirVenture Oshkosh, the biggest fly-in in the world, is this weekend. The chances that someone will show up with one of these? Not impossible, although all five of the airworthy Meteors are based in either the UK or Australia.

backup catcher? George Kottaras was D'dFA (DFA'd?) by MIL. Career OPS of 728. OPS this season was higher, altho he was in a long slump. NL OPS overall is 718, and I suspect catchers hit wose than that.

I mean I wish that you could go to the game logs and look up a player's or team's OPS+ for say June 15th or so.

It's not on bb-ref, but that's what the day by day database is.

I don't think it's unreasonable to state that the Nats have at-best a questionably average offense, even with their ideal line-up. I mean, just look at their ZiPS.

Here are their projected and current OPS+ for the main attractions:



Basically, in order to believe the Nats have an above-average offense, you have to believe that Ian Desmond is suddenly a 120 OPS+ hitter, when he was an 85 the last two years, when the only thing noticeably different about his batting line is that he's suddenly hitting 13% of his fly balls out of the park, after averaging 5% the last two years. And you have to believe that Zimmerman, Werth, Morse, and Desmond, who are all coming back from significant injuries, can maintain their production, and in the case of Zimmerman and Werth, not get injured yet again.

And if all that is true, you get a mildly above average offense. This is not a juggernaut. Especially not in an AL park...

And if all that is true, you get a mildly above average offense. This is not a juggernaut. Especially not in an AL park...

Ah, but you miss the subtlety that is NL ball:

good pitching and defense, timely hitting in the regular season and first two rounds. Then let the Rangers get close to winning and pounce when they stutter.